Comparison of acknowledged hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in high-risk hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response.

Abstract

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after sustained virological response (SVR). Several HCC risk scores have been developed but which one is most suitable for this population is unclear. In this study, we compared the prediction ability of the aMAP model, THRI model, PAGE-B model and Models of HCV in a prospective hepatitis C cohort in order to propose better model(s) to clinical practice. Adult hepatitis C patients with baseline advanced fibrosis (141 cases), compensated cirrhosis (330 cases) and decompensated cirrhosis (80 cases) were included and followed up every 6 months for about 7 years or until HCC development. Demographic data, medical history and laboratory results were recorded. HCCs were diagnosed by radiography, AFP or liver histology. The median follow-up period was 69.93(60.99-74.93) months, during which 53 (9.62%) patients developed HCC. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV scores were 0.74, 0.72, 0.70 and 0.63 respectively. The predictive power of the aMAP model score was comparable to that of THRI, PAGE-Band higher than that of Models of HCV (p < 0.05). Dividing patients into non-high-risk and high-risk groups, the cumulative incidence rates of HCC based on aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV was 5.57% vs. 24.17%, 1.10% vs. 13.90%, 5.80% vs. 15.90% and 6.41% vs. 13.81% (all p < 0.05). The AUC of the four models were all below 0.7 in male while all were higher than 0.7 in female. The performance of all the models was not influenced by fibrosis stage. aMAP, THRI model and PAGE-B model were all performed well while THRI model and PAGE-B model were easier to calculate. There was no need to select score according to fibrosis stage but should be caution when explain the results in male patients.