Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Temperature-Related MortalityAbstract Number:2461 Patrick Kinney*, Elisaveta Petkova, Jan Vink, Joe Francis, Radley Horton, and Daniel Bader Patrick Kinney* Columbia University, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Elisaveta Petkova Columbia Climate and Health Program, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Jan Vink Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Joe Francis Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Radley Horton Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , and Daniel Bader Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author AbstractHigh temperatures have long been recognized to have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about future demographics as well as population sensitivity to high temperatures. In this paper, we explore the potential future impacts of high temperatures on mortality in New York City while incorporating novel projections of heat adaptation and demographic change. We start by developing heat adaptation models that project the population response to heat until 2100 based on daily temperature and mortality data from 1900 to present. We continue with developing demographic scenarios that characterize the possible changes in the NYC population during the study period. Finally, we calculate future heat-related deaths in the city by combining the derived temperature-mortality relationships and population scenarios with the downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Projected heat-related mortality was lowest for the demographic scenario of constant population and highest for the scenario of increased domestic in-migration. For instance, by the 2080s and assuming moderate adaptation, the median annual number of projected deaths under RCP4.5 and across the 33 GCMs was 603 for the constant population and 1277 for the increased domestic in-migration scenario, compared to 638 annual deaths during the 2000s baseline period. The number of deaths projected under RCP8.5 was over twice as high. These findings can be of value to future work aimed at developing more comprehensive projections of temperature-related mortality.