Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China.

Tiantian Li,Maigeng Zhou,Daniel A Bader,Xudong Liang,Radley M Horton,Jie Ban,Qinghua Sun,Patrick L Kinney

doi:10.1038/srep28161

Abstract

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

Highlights

Global warming and a rapid increase in age in the population are two major global challenges of the 21st century
This warming is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, leading to more frequent extreme heat events[13], as well as other health impacts associated for example with water shortages and air quality that are beyond the scope of this study[14]
Our results in Beijing showed similar increasing trends to those found in previous works, while the significant differences in the absolute numbers of the projected deaths were due to the fact that China has the largest population in the world

Summary

Introduction

Global warming and a rapid increase in age in the population are two major global challenges of the 21st century. According to the 3rd National Assessment Report on Climate Change, the annual average temperature of the Chinese mainland area has increased by 0.21–0.25 °C/decade in the past 50–60 years This warming is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, leading to more frequent extreme heat events[13], as well as other health impacts associated for example with water shortages and air quality that are beyond the scope of this study[14]. Beijing is a microcosm of rapid urbanization in China and is representative of the development mode followed by other growing Chinese cities in the future This city is vulnerable to global warming due to the high concentration of older adults, as well as the urban heat island effect[5]. Projections for Beijing may have important policy implications for China and analogous cities elsewhere in the world facing the dual problems of climate change and population aging

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion