Heat Flux Anomalies Research Articles

Relationship between Tibetan Plateau Surface Heat Fluxes and Daily Heavy Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basins (1980–2022)

Variable heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) interact thermally with the atmosphere, affecting weather in surrounding areas, particularly in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River (MLYR). However, the circulation patterns and time-lag effects between TP heat fluxes and MLYR precipitation remain unclear. This study identified 577 large-scale daily heavy precipitation events (LSDHPEs) in the MLYR from 1980 to 2022. We analyzed the weather causation and spatiotemporal correlations between the TP surface heat fluxes and MLYR LSDHPEs using self-organizing map clustering, singular value decomposition, and harmonic analysis of time series. The results found two dominant synoptic patterns of LSDHPEs at 500 hPa: one, driven by anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations coinciding with shifts in the West Pacific subtropical high and South Asian high, increased from 2000 to 2022; the other, influenced by MLYR cyclonic circulation, showed a significant decrease. For the first time, we revealed lagged effects of the latent heat anomalies (with a lag time of 1–10 d and 130–200 d) and sensible heat anomalies (with a lag time of 2–4 months) over the TP during LSDHPEs in the MLYR. The results may enhance our understanding of TP heat flux anomalies as precursor signals for early warning of heavy rainfall and flooding in the MLYR.

Analysis of radiative heat flux using ASTER thermal images: Climatological and volcanological factors on Java Island, Indonesia

This study focuses on analysing natural Radiative Heat Flux (RHF) anomalies to map out the heat distribution across the Java Island. Leveraging remote sensing techniques, we calculated natural RHF anomalies using Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Surface Emissivity (LSE) data obtained from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. A key aspect of our approach was distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic heat sources by cross-referencing the LST Map with the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of Java Island. The study interprets natural RHF anomalies by examining regional trends in non-volcanic areas and local trends within volcanic regions, considering climatological and volcanological factors. Relation with climatological factors involves assessing soil moisture parameters from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data, precipitation from monthly Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data, and classifications according to the Köppen-Geiger climate schema. Our regional analysis reveals high natural RHF anomalies in the northern regions of West Java, parts of Central Java, and most of East Java, attributed to low soil moisture and low precipitation in savanna and monsoon climates. On a more localised scale, RHF values are significantly high in volcanic areas, particularly around Central and East Java's volcanoes, such as Mt. Merapi, Mt. Slamet, Mt. Semeru, the Sidoarjo Mud Volcano, and Mt. Ijen. The Natural RHF anomalies at volcanoes in West Java were identified as not being high except at Mt Patuha. These areas exhibit average natural RHF anomalies ranging between 32.22 W/m2 and 115.13 W/m2, indicating strong and intense volcanic activity. The insights obtained from these findings explain the overall thermal characteristics of Java Island and highlight the presence of subsurface thermal zones associated with volcanic activity and geothermal potential.

Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber‐4 Pattern Simulated in SINTEX‐F2 Coupled Model

AbstractInterannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the subtropical‐midlatitude Southern Hemisphere are often associated with a circumpolar wavenumber‐4 (W4) pattern. This study is the first attempt to successfully simulate the SST‐W4 pattern using a state‐of‐the‐art coupled model called SINTEX‐F2 and clarify the underlying physical processes. It is found that the SST variability in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) plays a key role in triggering atmospheric variability and generating the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer (December‐February). In contrast, the tropical SST variability has a very limited effect. The anomalous convection and associated divergence over the SWSP induce atmospheric Rossby waves confined in the westerly jet. Then, the synoptic disturbances circumnavigate the subtropical Southern Hemisphere, establishing an atmospheric W4 pattern. The atmospheric W4 pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, and it interacts with the upper ocean, causing variations in mixed layer depth due to latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. As incoming climatological solar radiation goes into a thinner (thicker) mixed layer, the shallower (deeper) mixed layer promotes surface warming (cooling). This leads to positive (negative) SST anomalies, developing the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer. Subsequently, anomalous entrainment due to the temperature difference between the mixed layer and the water below the mixed layer, anomalous LHF, and disappearance of the overlying atmospheric W4 pattern cause the decay of the SST‐W4 pattern during austral autumn. These results indicate that accurate simulation of the atmospheric forcing and the associated atmosphere‐ocean interaction is essential to capture the SST‐W4 pattern in coupled models.

The joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean heat flux during boreal winter

In this study, the joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on winter net surface heat flux (Qnet) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated for the 1979/1980–2017/2018 period. The results show that, in multisource datasets, the Qnet pattern for El Niño plus positive AO cases is the most robust. The major feature of Qnet is dominated by a significant dipole pattern, with oceanic heat gain anomalies appearing over the southeastern TIO and oceanic heat loss near the western TIO. Analysis of the flux components shows that the Qnet anomalies are mainly contributed by changes in latent heat flux and shortwave radiation (QLHF and QSWR), which are tightly associated with the regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In association with positive AO, northerly wind anomalies on the eastern flanks of a low-level anomalous anticyclone in the Arabian Sea enhance the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the western TIO. Meanwhile, the El Niño-related SST warming occurs in the western TIO. Both enhanced ITCZ and anomalous SST warming favour in situ increased low and middle cloud cover and a reduced QSWR. Furthermore, under El Niño's effect, a low-level anomalous anticyclone located in the southeastern TIO leads to a positive QLHF through decreased near-surface wind speed and increased near-surface air humidity. As a result, a dipole Qnet pattern tends to be observed for the combination of El Niño and positive AO.

Bering Strait Ocean Heat Transport Drives Decadal Arctic Variability in a High‐Resolution Climate Model

AbstractWe investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models.

A Transmitted Subseasonal Mode of the Winter Surface Air Temperature in the Mid‐ and High‐Latitudes of the Eurasia and Contributions From the North Atlantic and Arctic Regions

AbstractA significant and striking seesaw pattern of winter surface air temperature (SAT) has emerged, featuring pronounced warming Arctic and cooling Eurasian (referred to as WACE). This study investigates the subseasonal SAT modes across the mid‐ and high‐latitudes of Eurasia and their possible mechanisms based on daily reanalysis data from 1979 to 2022. Our results reveal that Eurasian winter SAT exhibits two distinct subseasonal modes, characterized by a correlated southeastward propagation of temperature and geopotential height anomalies (GHAs) in the middle and lower troposphere. Notably, the subseasonal SAT anomalies with eight phases constrained by the hydrostatic equilibrium, originate from the GHAs in the Arctic stratosphere and then transfer to the East Asia. The sixth phase of the transmitted subseasonal SAT mode is proved to be the key transition phase from the WACE pattern to its counterpart. Further analysis indicates that the strength of the transmitted subseasonal SAT mode is controlled by the tripolar sea surface turbulent heat flux anomalies over the north Atlantic.

Winter “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” pattern and its statistical linkages to oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations

A striking recurrent feature of winter climate variability is the “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern of opposite sign anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) in the Barents Sea region and midlatitude Eurasia. Its origins and mechanisms are hotly debated, and its predictability remains unknown. This study investigates statistical relationships of the winter WACE dipole with concurrent anomalies of atmospheric circulation and oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations. The results reveal a high potential for seasonal predictability of not only the WACE dipole but also several related indicators of winter climate variability, including the Arctic and Eurasian SAT anomalies. During subperiods of extreme covariability between the Arctic and Eurasian SATs around the early 1980s and late 2000s, most of the WACE variability is explained by ocean temperature and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies in the Barents Sea region during the preceding months. Anomalies in summer Atlantic water temperature (AWT) and autumnal sea surface temperature (SST) in this region explain about 70–80% of the variance of the following winter WACE variability during all events of strong Arctic-Eurasian SAT covariability. Analysis of SST variability in the Arctic-North Atlantic region suggests that the winter WACE link to the summer AWT anomalies reflects an atmospheric response to a large-scale surface reemergence of ocean temperature anomalies. However, this linkage had been robust only until the early 2000s. Since then, the winter WACE variability has been strongly related to autumnal SST anomalies in the Barents Sea region and the North Pacific.

Vertical structures and drivers of marine heatwaves and cold-spells in the Kuroshio Extension region

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold-spells (MCSs) are prolonged oceanic extreme temperature events that can severely impact large-scale ecosystems, fisheries, and human activities with consequent socioeconomic impacts. Although some studies have contributed valuable insights into the vertical structure and related mechanisms of MHWs, equivalent research on MCSs remains unclear. Thus, comprehensive and systematic analysis of the vertical structures and related mechanisms of MHWs and MCSs remains area of an active research. In this study, we classified MHWs/MCSs into two types in the Kuroshio Extension region: extended MHWs/MCSs that can extend through more than 70% of the water column and shallow MHWs/MCSs that are restricted from the surface layer to less than 70% of the water column. Analysis revealed that shallow events are characterized by stronger intensity and shorter duration compared with extended events. All shallow events are driven by surface heat flux anomalies, with shortwave radiation (latent heat flux) mostly inducing those in MHWs (MCSs). However, extended MHWs/MCSs are primarily driven by ocean anticyclonic/cyclonic eddies. These findings provide deeper understanding of the statistical characteristics, vertical structures, and physical drivers of MHWs and MCSs.

Interannual Variability of August Precipitation in China Associated With the Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly

AbstractThrough observational analysis and atmospheric simulation experiments, the relationship between sea ice in the region of South Pole and August precipitation in China was determined. Results indicate that the leading mode of August precipitation in China is significantly correlated with July sea ice concentration (SIC) in South Pole, specifically in eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Typically, the SIC growth is followed by positive rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Northeast China (NEC), while South China (SC) is under the control of negative rainfall anomalies. Precisely, owing to the temporal persistence of sea ice in the South Polar region from May to August, sea ice anomalies exert a strong influence on August atmospheric stability in EIO of Southern Hemisphere via regulating turbulent heat flux and air temperature anomalies. As SIC increases, the atmospheric circulation in horizontal exhibits the characteristics of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) positive phase, affecting the zonal wind anomalies. Subsequently, the anomalous circulation with a barotropic structure propagates to Australia and the East Asian via the strengthened vertical meridional cells and zonal winds. Moreover, numerical simulations confirm that due to the growth of South Polar sea ice in EIO, abnormal cyclone and anticyclone appear over North China and SC respectively, together with the moisture converging anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of YRB, and diverging anomalies in SC. Accordingly, these atmospheric circulation anomalies triggered by Antarctic sea ice conducive to a wet (dry) August in northern (southern) China.

Changes in core–mantle boundary heat flux patterns throughout the supercontinent cycle

SUMMARY The Earth’s magnetic field is generated by a dynamo in the outer core and is crucial for shielding our planet from harmful radiation. Despite the established importance of the core–mantle boundary (CMB) heat flux as driver for the dynamo, open questions remain about how heat flux heterogeneities affect the magnetic field. Here, we explore the distribution of the CMB heat flux on Earth and its changes over time using compressible global 3-D mantle convection models in the geodynamic modelling software ASPECT. We discuss the use of the consistent boundary flux method as a tool to more accurately compute boundary heat fluxes in finite element simulations and the workflow to provide the computed heat flux patterns as boundary conditions in geodynamo simulations. Our models use a plate reconstruction throughout the last 1 billion years—encompassing the complete supercontinent cycle—to determine the location and sinking speed of subducted plates. The results show how mantle upwellings and downwellings create localized heat flux anomalies at the CMB that can vary drastically over Earth’s history and depend on the properties and evolution of the lowermost mantle as well as the surface subduction zone configuration. The distribution of hot and cold structures at the CMB changes throughout the supercontinent cycle in terms of location, shape and number, indicating that these structures fluctuate and might have looked very differently in Earth’s past. We estimate the resulting amplitude of spatial heat flux variations, expressed by the ratio of peak-to-peak amplitude to average heat flux, q*, to be at least 2. However, depending on the material properties and the adiabatic heat flux out of the core, q* can easily reach values >30. For a given set of material properties, q* generally varies by 30–50 per cent over time. Our results have implications for understanding the Earth’s thermal evolution and the stability of its magnetic field over geological timescales. They provide insights into the potential effects of the mantle on the magnetic field and pave the way for further exploring questions about the nucleation of the inner core and the past state of the lowermost mantle.

Processes Contributing to Bering Sea Temperature Variability in the Late Twentieth and Early Twenty-First Century

Abstract Over recent decades, the Bering Sea has experienced oceanic and atmospheric climate extremes, including record warm ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves (MHWs), and increasingly variable air–sea heat fluxes. In this work, we assess the relative roles of surface forcing and ocean dynamical processes on mixed layer temperature (MLT) tendency by computing a closed mixed layer heat budget using the NASA/JPL Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Ocean State and Sea Ice Estimate. We show that surface forcing drives the majority of the MLT tendency in the spring and fall and remains dominant to a lesser degree in winter and summer. Surface forcing anomalies are the dominant driver of monthly mixed layer temperature tendency anomalies (MLTa), driving an average of 72% of the MLTa over the ECCO record length (1992–2017). The surface turbulent heat flux (latent plus sensible) accounts for most of the surface heat flux anomalies in January–April and September–December, and the net radiative flux (net longwave plus net shortwave) dominates the surface heat flux anomalies in May–August. Our results suggest that atmospheric variability plays a significant role in Bering Sea ocean temperature anomalies through most of the year. Furthermore, they indicate a recent increase in ocean warming surface forcing anomalies, beginning in 2010. Significance Statement In recent years, the Bering Sea has experienced extremes in ocean temperature, which have had adverse impacts on ocean ecology and marine fisheries and have contributed to increasingly variable sea ice extent. Our results identify anomalous heating by air–sea heat flux anomalies as the process responsible for most of the observed ocean temperature anomalies over the period 1992–2017. We additionally show that there has been an increase in atmosphere-driven ocean warming since 2010. Our work highlights the importance of investigating how ocean–atmosphere interactions might change under future climate change and how this will impact the Bering Sea.

On the Role of Wind–Evaporation–SST Feedbacks in the Subseasonal Variability of the East Pacific ITCZ

Abstract The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a zonally elongated band of near-surface convergence and precipitation near the equator. During boreal spring, the eastern Pacific ITCZ migrates latitudinally on daily to subseasonal time scales, and climate models exhibit the greatest ITCZ biases during this time of the year. In this work, we investigate the air–sea interactions associated with the variability in the eastern Pacific ITCZ’s latitudinal location for consecutive days when the ITCZ is only located north of the equator (nITCZ events) compared to when the ITCZ is on both sides of the equator or south of the equator (dsITCZ events) during February–April. The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and surface latent heat flux (SLHF) anomalies during the nITCZ and dsITCZ events follow the classic wind–evaporation–SST (WES) positive feedback mechanism. However, an alternative mechanism, embracing the effect of SST anomalies on vertical stratification and momentum mixing, gives rise to a negative WES feedback. Our results show that in the surface layer, there is a general progression of positive WES feedbacks happening in the weeks leading to the events followed by negative WES feedbacks occurring after the ITCZ events, with an alternate mechanism involving air–sea humidity differences limiting evaporation occurring in between. Additionally, the spatial structures of the components of the feedbacks are nearly mirror images for these opposite ITCZ events over the east Pacific during boreal spring. In closing, we find that understanding the air–sea interactions during daily to weekly varying ITCZ events (nITCZ and dsITCZ) helps to pinpoint how fundamental processes differ for ITCZs in different hemispheres.

Study on Seasonal Characteristics and Causes of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea over Nearly 30 Years

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and intense in many regions around the world, as well as in China’s marginal seas. However, the seasonal characteristics and associated physical drivers of MHWs are largely unknown. In this study, we analyze, based on multiple reanalysis and numerical model data, the seasonal characteristics and causes of MHWs in the South China Sea (SCS) over a near 30-year period (1991–2022). There exist significant seasonal variabilities in the spatiotemporal features and formation mechanisms of MHWs. MHWs in the SCS show significant increasing trends in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity. MHWs during the summer half-year are stronger than the winter half-year as a whole, with them being more likely to occur over the eastern SCS in the summer half-year and the western region in the winter half-year. However, the increasing trend of MHWs in the winter half-year exceed those in the summer. Additionally, we find that MHWs are associated with the unusually strong west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) both in the summer and winter half-years. Nevertheless, the dominant factors for MHWs are different in the varied seasons. According to upper ocean temperature equation analysis, surface heat flux anomalies (especially shortwave radiation flux) are major effect factors in the summer half-year, while ocean dynamic processes play the main role in the winter half-year. An analysis of the typical MHWs also proves this conclusion. Moreover, MHWs occurring in winter are often accompanied by temperature anomalies within the mixed-layer depth. The findings imply that the formation mechanisms and space–time distribution of MHWs exist with a seasonal contrast in the SCS, rather than simply being due to large-scale circulation and flux anomalies. This may provide a useful reference for a deeper understanding and forecasting of MHWs under different seasons and weather.

Equatorward shift of ENSO-related subtropical jet anomalies in recent decades

Using observations, NCEP-NCAR and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, numerical experiments and CMIP6 model outputs, this study investigates long-term changes in the meridional position of subtropical jet anomalies in association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is found that the subtropical jet anomalies associated with ENSO index (i.e., Niño3.4 index in this study) over both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) significantly (at the 99% confidence level) shift equatorward since the 1960s, at the speeds of 1.28 and 1.00° per decade, respectively. In recent six decades, the subtropical jet anomalies have moved equatorward by 4.34 and 3.19° over NH and SH, respectively. Our analysis indicates that the tropical positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with Niño3.4 (corresponding to its warm phase) during 1990–2020 (P2) are weaker than those during 1950–1980 (P1). The weak, positive SST anomalies induce tropical weak, positive surface latent heat flux and precipitation anomalies, which heat tropical troposphere and produce weak, positive geopotential height anomaly with a narrow meridional width over the tropics during P2. According to geostrophic wind relations, anomalous positive zonal winds occur over the subtropics in the upper troposphere, meaning strengthened subtropical westerly jets over NH and SH. Hence, the relatively weak, narrow positive geopotential height anomaly during P2 favors the equatorward shift of Niño3.4-related subtropical jet anomalies via geostrophic wind relations. The results from numerical experiments and CMIP6 model outputs also indicate that changes in tropical SST anomalies associated with Niño3.4 contribute to this equatorward shift, supporting the results from reanalysis datasets. These results suggest that the intensity of tropical SST anomalies linked to ENSO should be well resolved to better simulate and predict subtropical jet variations.

What Controls the Subseasonal Precipitation Reversal Over the Western Tibetan Plateau in Winter?

AbstractThis study reveals a significant subseasonal reversal of precipitation on the western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) from a deficit in December to an increase in January and February (JF). Changes in vertical moisture advection induced by the dynamic effects contribute mostly to the subseasonal precipitation trend reversal. This process involves the reversal of the subseasonal westerly driven uplift, accompanied by the weakened (enhanced) subtropical westerly jet and anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the WTP in December (JF). Further analysis shows that the North Atlantic Tripolar‐like (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) modes could regulate the sunseasonal winter precipitation reversal over the WTP. The spatially inconsistent changes in SST can result in subseasonal reversed turbulent heat flux anomalies over Iceland‐Scandinavia in December and JF. In particular, the suppressed turbulent heat flux over the extratropical Northeast Atlantic in December leads to significant descending motion and upper tropospheric convergence. The advection of absolute vorticity induced by convergent winds associated with the NAT favors the generation of Rossby wave sources over Iceland‐Scandinavia, which then enhances the wave activity fluxes propagation. However, there are no significant changes in wave sources over Iceland‐Scandinavia in JF. The discrepancies in wave propagation intensity over Iceland‐Scandinavia determine the changes in the atmospheric pattern over the WTP, with anomalous anticyclone in December and cyclone in JF, and ultimately lead to the precipitation reversal. Furthermore, our results show that the suppressed transient eddies over the Atlantic storm track in JF may also contribute to the weakened wave propagation over Iceland‐Scandinavia.

Comprehensive characterization of Marine Heatwaves in a coastal Northern Humboldt Current System regional model over recent decades

In this study, a high-resolution hydrodynamic model simulation was used to analyze the three-dimensional characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the coastal region of the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) over the period 2000–2019. Three distinct vertical layers were identified. The near-surface layer, extending down to 75 m depth, is identified as the region where both the maximum MHW intensity and cumulative intensity are found, predominantly concentrated along the thermocline depth. The intermediate layer, spanning from 75 to 125 m depth, exhibited the longest MHW durations and the lowest MHW frequencies. MHWs in this layer tend to be of moderate intensity and are often associated with ENSO variability. In contrast, the deep layer, from 125 to 250 m depth, was characterized by short-lived MHWs of low intensity. These MHWs exert a lesser thermal impact on the region. To understand the drivers of MHWs, a composite analysis was performed. The results highlighted the significant role exerted by wind-driven anomalies in the life cycle of MHWs. It was found that the combined effect of a sluggish coastal upwelling circulation and suppressed oceanic heat loss, as a result of weakened winds, preceded the MHW formation. Conversely, the strengthening of winds, which enhanced net heat loss, primarily driven by latent heat flux anomalies, and an enhancement of the cooling effect due to the recovery of the coastal upwelling circulation, are key processes in ending a typical MHW event in the coastal region. These findings expand our understanding of the MHWs and their associated potential drivers and help to reveal which regions are most susceptible to extreme climate events in one of the most productive marine ecosystems worldwide.

Extremely long-lived marine heatwave in South China Sea during summer 2020: Combined effects of the seasonal and intraseasonal variations

South China Sea (SCS) experienced an exceptionally long-lived marine heatwave (MHW) event in summer 2020, which broke the historical records in terms of its time duration since 1982. This long-lasting MHW was primarily attributed to the combined effects of the seasonal cycle (SC) and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) components of anomalous atmospheric circulations. During the SC developing phase, the superimposed anticyclonic circulation regimes of the SC and 30–60-day ISO jointly contributed to the first warming sea surface temperature (SST) peak over the central SCS in July, via the combined effects of net downward shortwave radiation (SWR) and latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. In contrast, during the SC decaying phase, the SCS MHW-related warming SST tendency was mostly due to 30–60-day ISO signals. During the growth phase of ISO, the joint warming effect of the SWR and LHF anomalies was the dominant factor maintaining the SCS MHW. In the decaying phase of 30–60-day ISO, however, the second MHW-related warming peak around Beibu Gulf in September was mainly contributed by the sharply reduced LHF loss due to strong southwesterly anomalies over the northern SCS on the 30–60-day timescale. The varying SC component plays a crucial role in the occurrence and maintenance of MHWs, while the 30–60-day ISO can effectively regulate the development and pattern of SCS MHWs. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of the SC component, the 30–60-day ISO should also be considered for fully understanding the extreme MHW events.

Observed Air–Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Anomalies during the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 2021

Abstract This study presents observational findings of air–sea turbulent heat flux anomalies during the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) in 2021 and explains the mechanism for high-resolution heat flux variations. Turbulent heat flux discrepancies are not uniform throughout the basin but indicate a significant regional disparity in the South China Sea (SCS), which also experiences evident year-to-year variability. Based on buoy- and cruise-based air–sea measurements, high-temporal-resolution (less than hourly) anomalies in the latent heat flux during the SCSSM burst are unexpectedly determined by sea–air humidity differences instead of wind effects under near-neutral and mixed marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) stability conditions. However, latent heat anomalies are mainly induced by wind speed under changing MABL conditions. The sensible heat flux is much weaker, with its anomalies dominated by sea–air temperature differences regardless of the boundary layer condition. The observational results are used to examine the discrepancies in turbulent heat fluxes and associated air–sea variables in reanalysis products. The comparisons indicate that latent and sensible heat fluxes in the reanalysis are overestimated by approximately 55 and 3 W m−2, respectively. These overestimations are mainly induced by higher estimates of sea–air humidity/temperature differences. The relative humidity is underestimated by approximately 4.2% in the two high-resolution reanalysis products. The higher SST (near-surface specific humidity) and lower air temperature (specific air humidity) eventually lead to higher estimates of sea–air humidity/temperature differences (1.75 g kg−1/0.25°C), which are the dominant factors controlling the variations in the air–sea turbulent heat fluxes. Significance Statement Air–sea interactions are significant in predicting the onset of East Asian monsoon systems, including the SCSSM. During the SCSSM in 2021, four buoys and cruise observations are used to investigate anomalies in the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The physical mechanism of the variations in turbulent heat fluxes under different MABL stability conditions is explored in this study. The humidity and wind speed anomalies play roles under mixed boundary conditions in determining the high-resolution variations in latent heat fluxes. Based on these observational results, the heat fluxes and associated air–sea variables from reanalysis products are compared to identify the differences in the operational systems. These comparison results can help improve the reanalysis to obtain better monsoon predictions.

Statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole

AbstractThe statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) from 1980 to 2021 are analysed using observational datasets. The spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during SAOD is a dipole pattern oriented in the northeast‐southwest direction, and the intensity of the SSTA in the northeast pole (NEP) is stronger than that in the southwest pole (SWP). SAOD has a decadal variability of about 12 years during 1980–2007, along with obvious seasonal phase‐locking, with the anomaly pattern developing in boreal spring (March–May), peaking in summer (June–August) and decaying in autumn (September–November). For a positive SAOD event (positive SSTA in the NEP, negative in the SWP), positive SSTA in the NEP grows due to a decrease in wind speed and thus in latent heat flux loss in boreal spring, as well as an increase in shortwave radiation flux from boreal spring to summer. However, southwesterly wind anomalies drive cold water from high latitudes to the SWP in boreal spring and summer, coupled with strong wind speed anomalies enhancing the loss of latent heat flux, which contributes to a negative SSTA in the SWP. In addition, the intensity of the SSTA in the SWP is weaker than that in the NEP because of the contribution of smaller shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and larger mixed layer depth in the SWP in summer. For a negative SAOD mode (negative SSTA in the NEP, positive in the SWP), the wind, shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and mixed layer depth anomalies are the opposite of those under a positive SAOD event.

Inferring the relationship between core-mantle heat flux and seismic tomography from mantle convection simulations

The heat flux pattern at Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB) imposes a heterogeneous boundary condition on core dynamics that may profoundly affect the geodynamo. Owing to the expected temperature dependence of seismic velocities, this pattern is classically approximated as proportional to the lowermost layer of seismic tomography models for the global mantle. Two biases however undermine such a simple linear relationship: 1) other contributions than thermal (compositional and mineralogical) influence seismic velocities and 2) the radial average is inherent to tomographic models whereas the local thermal state at the CMB is relevant for the heat flux. We analyze here simulations of thermochemical mantle convection where, owing to their spatial characteristics, specific mantle components are readily identified: hot thermochemical piles (TCPs), “normal” mantle (NM) and, when post-peroskite (pPv) is included, a cold region where this phase is present. Synthetic seismic velocities (i.e. from the mantle simulations) are then computed based on thermal, compositional and mineralogical sensitivities. A formalism to infer the CMB heat flux from these seismic shear velocity anomalies is derived. In this formalism, within each mantle population (i.e. TCPs, NM or pPv) the CMB heat flux vs. seismic anomalies follows a unique fitting function. The transition from one mantle population to another is marked by a jump in the seismic anomaly, i.e. a range of seismic anomalies in between two mantle populations corresponds to a similar CMB heat flux. Applying our formalism to the seismic anomalies from the mantle convection simulations provides far superior fits than the commonly used linear fits. The results highlight reduced negative heat flux anomalies beneath large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs), while positive heat flux anomalies are enhanced, both with respect to the classical linear interpretation.