Increase In Heat Content Research Articles

Hydrometeorological conditions of Avacha Bay during the period of monitoring studies in 2013–2022

Interannual variability of hydrometeorological conditions in Avacha Bay was analyzed on the basis of data obtained in the course of complex standard surveys in the period from 2013 to 2022. Steady excess of climatic norm for air temperature and precipitation is shown in the area mentioned throughout the entire period of the hydrological studies. The air temperature, however, experienced significant interannual fluctuations in the considered range of years, while precipitation levels increased noticeably only in the period from 2013 to 2015, and then there was a tendency to a slow decline with a minimum in 2022. The surface atmospheric pressure exceeded the multiyear average in summer and autumn, but was below it in winter. Ten-year averages of temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-α concentration, and oxygen saturation for April through October at 10 stations on standard horizons were calculated. Analysis of interannual variability of the temperature and salinity integral indices for the entire studied water column of Avacha Bay has demonstrated a gradual increase of heat content and a slight decrease of salinity.

Effect of cold beverages on whole-body heat exchange in young and older males during intermittent exercise in the heat.

To mitigate health risks associated with occupational heat stress, workers are advised to adhere to a work-rest regimen, and hydrate regularly. However, it remains unclear if beverage temperature influences whole-body heat exchange during work-rest cycles, and if responses differ in older workers who have a blunted heat loss capacity. Ten young (mean [SD]: 22 [3] years) and 10 older (60 [4] years) males performed four 15-min bouts of moderate-intensity cycling at a fixed rate of metabolic heat production (200 W·m-2), each interspersed by 15-min rest in dry heat (40°C, ~12% relative humidity). On separate days, participants consumed either ice-slurry (~0°C), standardized to provide a heat transfer capacity of 75 kJ·m-2, or an identical mass of warm fluid (37.5°C) before the first and third exercise bouts. Evaporative and dry heat exchange (direct calorimetry) and metabolic heat production (indirect calorimetry) were measured continuously to determine cumulative heat storage (summation of heat loss and heat gain) over the entire protocol. Rectal temperature was also measured continuously. Relative to warm fluid, ice-slurry ingestion reduced cumulative heat storage in young (69 [181] vs. 216 [94] kJ) and older males (90 [104] vs. 254 [140] kJ, main effect: p < 0.01), but was unaffected by age (p = 0.49). However, rectal temperature was unaffected by beverage temperature in both groups (all p ≥ 0.15). We show that cold fluid ingestion is an appropriate administrative control for both young and older males as it can mitigate increases in body heat content during moderate-intensity work-rest cycles in dry heat.

Do Sea Surface Winds and Currents in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Derive the Extreme El Niños?

El Niño is the largest natural climate variability event on an interannual time scale occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is linked to global climate change. The north equatorial countercurrent (NECC) is considered a significant feature of the tropical Pacific current system due to its location and eastward flow direction. The NECC has been suggested as a current that transports the warmer western Pacific waters to the eastern Pacific to trigger the El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific. We investigated how the movements of zonal wind stress (ZWS) and ocean surface currents (OSC) contribute to the sea surface temperature (SST) changes during the El Niño period. During moderate to severe Central Pacific El Niño events, the continuous flow of the NECC extending from the El Niño monitoring region into the eastern Pacific is rarely observed. In addition, a significant increase in ocean heat content compared to the 27-year climatological normal has been identified at temperatures above 28 °C. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis that the additional heat is supplied from the subsurface source and the warm pool is expanded by the subsurface equatorial countercurrent, known as the Equatorial Undercurrent, rather than by the surface currents. The heated water is expected to contribute to the evolution of El Niño by upwelling to the surface along the equator in a north–south symmetric feature.

Ocean Heat Content Increase of the Maritime Continent Since the 1990s

AbstractThe Maritime Continent (MC), a critical region for inter‐basin climate interaction, harbors the world's highest marine biodiversity. Ocean warming in the MC, although with notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems, remains poorly constrained by observations. By applying a volume‐correction algorithm to existing gridded observational data sets, this study provides an estimate for the ocean heat content (OHC) change of the MC. The results suggest a substantial OHC increase of 2.65 ± 0.46 Zettajoules during 1990–2015 (1.08 ± 0.17 W m−2) and limited changes before and after. This increase primarily arose from the enhanced Pacific Walker circulation, which drove a convergence of upper‐layer warm water toward the MC. A potential heat storage “hotspot” with enhanced warming below 500 m emerges within the Sulu Sea, which is supported by analysis of profile data collected in boreal winter but not in other seasons.

Ocean Model Response to Stochastically Perturbed Momentum Fluxes

Abstract Recent studies of various stochastic forcing and subgrid-scale parameterization schemes applied to climate and atmospheric models have revealed a diversity of model responses. These responses include degeneracy in the response to different forcings and compensating model errors. While stochastic parameterization of the ocean eddies is an active area, this has mainly involved idealized models with fewer studies employing ocean general circulation models. Here we examine the sensitivity of a low-resolution climate model to stochastic forcing of the momentum fluxes restricted to regions of the three-dimensional ocean where an eddy-resolving ocean model configuration has high variability. We consider the changes in the modeled energetics of low-resolution simulations in response to increased stochastic forcing. We find that as forcing amplitudes are increased there is enhanced conversion of transient to seasonal potential energy. Additionally, there is a systematic redistribution from seasonal to small-scale transient kinetic energy. Our approach has zero mean noise such that the total kinetic energy spectra remain largely unchanged even as small-scale eddy kinetic energy is increased in the targeted regions. However, we also show that strong stochastic forcing, particularly when applied in the tropics, can induce substantial changes to the ocean steady state that are undesirable. These changes include overly strong vertical mixing leading to unrealistic increases in ocean heat content and latitudinally dependent changes to sea level. We show that judicious selection of the magnitude and spatial extent of the stochastic forcing is required for desirable results. Our results point to the importance of a comprehensive evaluation of ocean model responses to stochastic parameterizations.

Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes

AbstractChanges in ocean heat content are a critical element of climate change, with the oceans containing about 90% of the excess heat stored in the climate system and 60% in the upper 700 db. Estimates of these changes are sensitive to horizontal mapping of the sparse historical data and errors in eXpendable BathyThermograph data. Here we show that they are also sensitive to the vertical interpolation of sparsely sampled data through the water column. We estimate, using carefully constructed vertical interpolation methods with high‐quality hydrographic (bottle and CTD) data, the observationally based upper ocean heat content increase (thermosteric sea level rise) from 1956 to 2020 is 285 Zeta Joules (0.55 mm yr−1), 14% (14%) larger than estimates relying on simple but biased linear interpolation schemes. The underestimates have a clear spatial pattern with their maximum near 15°N and 12°S, around the maxima in the curvature of the temperature‐depth profile.

Wind-Induced Variability of Warm Water on the Southern Bellingshausen Sea Continental Shelf.

The Bellingshausen Sea hosts heat transport onto the continental shelf, potentially enhancing ice shelf basal melt. Here, we use the GLORYS12V1 1993-2018 reanalysis to identify physical processes that set seasonal and interannual variability of water mass properties in the Eltanin and Latady Bays on the southern Bellingshausen Sea continental shelf. Annual means of potential temperature from 300m to the seabed reveal interannual variability and allow separation into warm and cold regimes. The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is more intense and extends further east during the warm regime than the cold regime. In the warm regime, a wind-induced reduction of sea ice concentration near the coast increases surface heat loss, convection, and formation of cold dense water in winter, associated with a decrease in heat content of the southern Bellingshausen Sea over time and a net northward heat transport. In contrast, in the cold regime, increased sea ice concentration reduces surface heat loss and thus formation of cold, dense water. Combined with an increase in heat content over time and a net southward heat transport, this results in a warming of the southern Bellingshausen Sea. This suggests that variability in the deep water temperature in the southern Bellingshausen Sea is primarily due to local surface heat fluxes above the shelf. The variability of surface heat fluxes is related to the variability of the ASL and its influence on sea ice extent and local formation of cold, dense water in winter.

Investigation of Ocean Sub-Surface Processes in Tropical Cyclone Phailin Using a Coupled Modeling Framework: Sensitivity to Ocean Conditions

The present study is aimed to investigate sub-surface ocean processes and their contribution to the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) from a coupled-modeling perspective. The Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model was employed to simulate TC Phailin, which originated over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall on the eastern coast of India in October 2013. Three sub-surface ocean condition datasets—viz., (a) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ocean Reanalysis, (b) the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) Operational Analysis, and (c) the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Reanalysis datasets—were used for the initial and boundary conditions for the oceanic component of the coupled model in three different simulations of TC Phailin. All the simulations showed a delay in intensification compared to the observation, and ECMWF simulated the most intensified TC. CFSV2 simulated a deeper mixed layer (ML) and higher mixing, which hindered the intensification. Furthermore, higher entrainment of cold water in the ML led to cold water reaching the surface and, consequently, decreased sea surface temperature, which acted as negative feedback in the intensification of the storm in the cases of CFSV2 and HYCOM. ECMWF realistically simulated the interactions of the TC with a cold-core eddy before landfall. A sudden increase in ML heat content, the addition of heat in the ML due to entrainment, and the prevention of cold water reaching the surface were indicative of the breaking of the barrier layer (BL) in ECMWF, which was further corroborated by the spatial distribution of BL thickness in the simulation. This acted as positive feedback in the intensification of the TC. The findings of this study strongly suggest that not only the incorporation of physical oceanic sub-surface processes in the modeling of TCs but also the proper representation of prevailing mesoscale features and ocean sub-surface temperature, salinity, and current profiles in datasets is essential for realistic simulations of TCs.

Improved Quantification of the Rate of Ocean Warming

Abstract The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere create an increase in Earth’s thermal energy, which is mainly stored in the ocean. Quantification of the rate of increase in ocean heat content (OHC) is vital for understanding the current and future climate of Earth. Linear trend lines have been frequently used to quantify long-term rates of change, but are inappropriate because they cannot capture nonlinearity in trends, have large start- and end-point sensitivity, and the assumption of linearity is nonphysical. Here observed and model-based linear regressions with higher-order polynomial (quadratic), piecewise linear, and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) are compared. Piecewise linear and LOWESS perform best in depicting multidecadal trends. It is shown that linear rates are valid for up to about 15-yr segments (i.e., it is valid to compute linear rates within a 15-yr time window). Using the recommended methods, ocean warming for the upper 2000 m increases from about 0 to 0.06 ± 0.08 W m−2 for 1958–73 to 0.58 ± 0.08 W m−2 for 2003–18, indicating an acceleration of ocean warming that happens in all four ocean basins and from near the sea surface to 2000 m. There is consistency between multimodel-mean historically forced climate models and observations, which implies that the contribution of internal variability is small for global 0–2000 m OHC. Notable increases of OHC in the upper ocean (i.e., 0–300 m) after about 1980 and the deeper ocean (300–2000 m) after the late 1980s are also evident. This study suggests alternative methods to those currently used to estimate ocean warming rates to provide a more accurate quantification of long-term Earth’s energy changes. Significance Statement Quantifying long-term rates of change is needed to understand the time evolution of ocean warming and to assess the changing ocean and Earth’s energy budgets. Linear trend lines have been frequently used but cannot capture nonlinearity in trends, and have large start- and end-point sensitivity. Based on an analysis of the statistical features of ocean heat content time series, this study proposes two alternative methods to quantify the rates of change, including piecewise linear fit and LOWESS. Robust increases in warming for the upper 2000 m detected through observational records and climate models from 1958 to 2020, indicate a robust acceleration of ocean warming. Slow penetration of heat from the upper ocean into the deeper ocean is also evident.

Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming

Atmospheric ozone has undergone distinct changes in the stratosphere and troposphere during the second half of the twentieth century, with depletion in the stratosphere and an increase in the troposphere. Until now, the effect of these changes on ocean heat uptake has been unclear. Here we show that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes have contributed to Southern Ocean interior warming with the latter being more important. The ozone changes between 1955 and 2000 induced about 30% of the net simulated ocean heat content increase in the upper 2,000 m of the Southern Ocean, with around 60% attributed to tropospheric increases and 40% to stratospheric depletion. Moreover, these two warming contributions show distinct physical mechanisms: tropospheric ozone increases cause a subsurface warming in the Southern Ocean primarily via the deepening of isopycnals, while stratospheric ozone causes depletion via spiciness changes along isopycnals. Our results highlight that tropospheric ozone is more than an air pollutant and, as a greenhouse gas, has been pivotal to the Southern Ocean warming.

The Evaluation of the Thermal Field under Urban Heat Island Based on Borehole Temperature Measurements (Evidence from Yekaterinburg, Russia)

The paper deals with the analysis of the subsurface urban thermal field using temperature logging in boreholes. The method for the separation and quantification of temperature anomalies in an urban subsurface induced by climate change and the building construction at the local area has been described. The differences in the penetration dynamics for climate and local anomalies afford to estimate their contributions separately. The study was carried out by the example of the borehole IGF-280 located in Yekaterinburg, Russia. It was found that the value of local temperature anomaly caused by the building construction is much higher than that induced by climate change (11 K versus 1.4 K). But the climate temperature anomaly penetrates deeper than the local one (140 m for the climate anomaly versus 90 m for the local one). We also assessed changes in heat content due to climatic changes and building operation. The heat content of the rocks increased by 15.6·107 J/m2 due to climate change over the past 150 years. The building input to the heat content increase is more than twice as higher – 38.6·107 J/m2. About 40% of the heat content gain caused by climate change is concentrated in the 20-meter layer of rocks, and 97% of that – in the upper 100 m. 74% of the heat content gain due to the building influence are concentrated in the upper 20 m.

Indo-Pacific Warming Induced by a Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract The reorganization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is often associated with changes in Earth’s climate. These AMOC changes are communicated to the Indo-Pacific basins via wave processes and induce an overturning circulation anomaly that opposes the Atlantic changes on decadal to centennial time scales. We examine the role of this transient, interbasin overturning response, driven by an AMOC weakening, both in an ocean-only model with idealized geometry and in a coupled CO2 quadrupling experiment, in which the ocean warms on two distinct time scales: a fast decadal surface warming and a slow centennial subsurface warming. We show that the transient interbasin overturning produces a zonal heat redistribution between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. Following a weakened AMOC, an anomalous northward heat transport emerges in the Indo-Pacific, which substantially compensates for the Atlantic southward heat transport anomaly. This zonal heat redistribution manifests as a thermal interbasin seesaw between the high-latitude North Atlantic and the subsurface Indo-Pacific and helps to explain why Antarctic temperature records generally show more gradual changes than the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. In the coupled CO2 quadrupling experiment, we find that the interbasin heat transport due to a weakened AMOC contributes substantially to the slow centennial subsurface warming in the Indo-Pacific, accounting for more than half of the heat content increase and sea level rise. Thus, our results suggest that the transient interbasin overturning circulation is a key component of the global ocean heat budget in a changing climate.

Projection of future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas based on Global Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Model with SRES A1B Scenario

To project the future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas due to global warming, regional sea level variations are downscaled from three climate system models (GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MIROC3.2(hires)) using a global ocean-sea ice coupled model with non-Boussinesq approximation. Based on the SRES A1B Scenario, the projected ensemble mean sea level rise (rate of rise) for the East Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 1995 to 2050 is 15.60cm (2.84mm/year), 16.49cm (3.0mm/year) and 16.43cm (2.99mm/year), respectively. With the inclusion of the future change of land ice melting and land water storage, the mean sea level rise (rate of rise) increases to 33.55cm (6.10mm/year) for the East Sea, and 34.38~34.44cm (6.25~6.26mm/year) for the Yellow and East China Seas. The present non-Boussinesq ocean model experiment shows that the future sea level rise in the East Sea is mainly due to the steric component changes by heat content increase. On the other hand, the future sea level rise in the Yellow and East China Seas appears to be mainly associated with the non-steric component change by water mass convergence.

The Influence of Weather Forecast Resolution on the Circulation of Lake George, NY

AbstractGlobal warming is expected to greatly impact the thermal conditions of inland water bodies. Publicly available weather forecasts sufficiently resolve weather patterns above large lakes to satisfactorily force a lake hydrodynamics model, we suspect this is not the case for smaller lakes. We address this issue using weather outputs from a numerical weather prediction model at three different resolutions (3 km, 1 and 0.33 km) to force a hydrodynamics model of Lake George, NY for the month of June 2017. We find that increasing the resolution of the weather model improves the accuracy of the simulation, in part through a significant increase in total heat content of the lake. This warming is linked to an increase in downward heat transfer from the atmosphere in the higher resolution experiment, especially in the northern part of the lake where the lake is less than 2 km wide and the simulated surface winds are stronger. Interrogation of the weather model shows the stronger winds originate from a better representation of the land‐lake interface (and thereby surface roughness length) at higher resolution. At the end of the one month simulation, we find the hypolimnetic volume of Lake George has reduced by 15% in the 0.33 km experiment compared to the 3 km experiment. If this discrepancy were systemic it would have obvious consequences for predicting the ecoysystem function over an extended period of small‐to‐medium sized lakes.

Determination of the Sun‐Climate Relationship Using Empirical Mathematical Models for Climate Data Sets

AbstractPrevious studies have reported that human influences are required to explain the observed global warming using a linear model (LM) that relates change in solar forcing to change in global mean temperature (GMT) . This model has the shortcoming of assuming a given causes the same irrespective of the value of the initial global warming rate . Analysis of the GMT data showed that this warming rate has been increasing linearly since steady state ( for year ) as given by , where °C/year2 is the secular GMT acceleration and is the number of years of the change. The secular solar forcing due to 18% of the 11 yr solar cycle forcing of 0.19 W/ (0.08% of Total Solar Irradiance) was expressed as . Defining the climate sensitivity as °C/year per W/ removed the shortcoming of the LM and integration of the model for above and then simplifying gave a secular GMT‐solar forcing model given by that explained all of the observed global warming and increase in atmospheric , sea level and ocean heat content. Therefore, for this nonlinear empirical model, invoking human influences to explain climate change was not required. The annual GMT model predicts a pause in global warming until 2040.

Increased cyclone destruction potential in the Southern Indian Ocean

The present study examines the role of the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) warming on the cyclone destruction potential or Power Dissipation Index (PDI) during two contrasting periods of 1980–1998 and 1999–2016. The PDI in the SIO during 1999–2016 is found to have doubled compared to the same during 1980–1998. PDI was computed using the tropical cyclone track data in the SIO region for cyclone category three and above. The increasing trend in PDI during the latter period is primarily due to an increase in the intensity of cyclones and their duration. The increasing PDI is associated with a sea surface temperature warming and an upper ocean heat content increase as well as a significant slowdown in translation speeds. The increase in upper ocean heat content during the recent decades enhances the intensification of cyclones and their duration, which is consistent with the slowdown of cyclones. Analysis of the relevant atmospheric parameters indicates that processes in the atmosphere did not play a major role in the recent decades in increasing cyclone intensity. We show that in the SIO, ocean processes play a major role in the PDI rise during the recent period. Any continued increase in PDI will cause more loss of life and socioeconomic damage to the island countries such as Mozambique, Mauritius, Mascarene Islands and Madagascar, as well as the coastal inhabitants along East Africa.

Step Increase in Eastern U.S. Precipitation Linked to Indian Ocean Warming

AbstractA step increase in annual precipitation over the eastern United States in the early 1970s commenced five decades of invigorated hydroclimate, with ongoing impacts on streamflow and water resources. Despite its far‐reaching impacts, the dynamical origin of this change is unknown. Here analyses of a century of atmospheric and oceanic data trace the dynamics to changes in the Indian Ocean. Increases in fall precipitation contribute most strongly to the step increase, and the associated mechanism is emergence of a pan‐Pacific atmospheric wave emanating from deep convection over the warming Indian Ocean. Documentation of this fall teleconnection draws attention to projected anthropogenic increases in tropical oceanic heat content and their potential impacts on hydroclimate of the midlatitudes.

Back‐to‐Back Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea During October–November 2015: Causes and Responses

AbstractIn the Arabian Sea, two extremely severe cyclonic storms occurred back to back during October–November 2015. Using a suite of ocean and atmospheric data, we examined the upper ocean responses of tropical cyclones Chapala and Megh, the latter originated immediately after the dissipation of the former. Cyclones Chapala and Megh cooled the sea surface by 1.5°C and 1.0°C, respectively, which was also captured by Bio‐Argo float in the vicinity of their tracks. The cyclone‐induced chlorophyll a enhancement was 6 and 2 times respectively from their precyclone value of 0.36 and 0.30 mg/m3, while the net primary productivity showed an increase of 5.8 and 1.7 times respectively from the precyclone values of 496.26 and 518.63 mg C/m2/day after the passage of Chapala and Megh. The CO2 flux showed a sixfold and twofold increase respectively compared to the precyclone value of 2.69–3.58 and 6.78 mmol/m2/day. We show that the anomalous co‐occurrence of the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole and the strong El Niño supported large‐scale warming in the western Arabian Sea. Subsequent altered Walker circulation played a decisive role in the preconditioning of both atmosphere and ocean, which led to a situation congenial for cyclogenesis. What triggered the formation of the cyclone Chapala was the arrival of eastward‐propagating atmospheric convection associated with the Madden‐Julian oscillation. The generation of the second cyclone Megh within 8 days appears to be associated with the oceanic Rossby wave that led to an increase in the upper ocean heat content by deepening the 26°C isotherm in the vicinity of the origin of cyclones.

Sea‐Ice Induced Southern Ocean Subsurface Warming and Surface Cooling in a Warming Climate

AbstractMuch of the Southern Ocean surface south of 55° S cooled and freshened between at least the early 1980s and the early 2010s. Many processes have been proposed to explain the unexpected cooling, including increased winds or freshwater fluxes. However, these mechanisms so far failed to fully explain the surface trends and the concurrent subsurface warming (100 to 500 m). Here, we argue that these trends are predominantly caused by an increased wind‐driven northward sea‐ice transport, enhancing the extraction of freshwater near Antarctica and releasing it in the open ocean. This conclusion is based on factorial experiments with a regional ocean model. In all experiments with an enhanced northward sea‐ice transport, a strengthened salinity‐dominated stratification cools the open‐ocean surface waters between the Subantarctic Front and the sea‐ice edge. The strengthened stratification reduces the downward mixing of cold surface water and the upward heat loss of the warmer waters below, thus warming the subsurface. This sea‐ice induced subsurface warming mostly occurs around West Antarctica, where it likely enhances ice‐shelf melting. Moreover, the subsurface warming could account for about 8 ± 2% of the global ocean heat content increase between 1982 and 2011. Antarctic sea‐ice changes thereby may have contributed to the slowdown of global surface warming over this period. Our conclusions are robust across all considered sensitivity cases, although the trend magnitude is sensitive to forcing uncertainties and the model's mean state. It remains unclear whether these sea‐ice induced changes are associated with natural variability or reflect a response to anthropogenic forcing.

Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °C to 3.1 °C (5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012). We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values. We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.