Determination of the Sun‐Climate Relationship Using Empirical Mathematical Models for Climate Data Sets

Abstract

AbstractPrevious studies have reported that human influences are required to explain the observed global warming using a linear model (LM) that relates change in solar forcing to change in global mean temperature (GMT) . This model has the shortcoming of assuming a given causes the same irrespective of the value of the initial global warming rate . Analysis of the GMT data showed that this warming rate has been increasing linearly since steady state ( for year ) as given by , where °C/year2 is the secular GMT acceleration and is the number of years of the change. The secular solar forcing due to 18% of the 11 yr solar cycle forcing of 0.19 W/ (0.08% of Total Solar Irradiance) was expressed as . Defining the climate sensitivity as °C/year per W/ removed the shortcoming of the LM and integration of the model for above and then simplifying gave a secular GMT‐solar forcing model given by that explained all of the observed global warming and increase in atmospheric , sea level and ocean heat content. Therefore, for this nonlinear empirical model, invoking human influences to explain climate change was not required. The annual GMT model predicts a pause in global warming until 2040.