Risk Of Heart Failure Research Articles

An ensemble machine learning approach for predicting heart failure risk in acute coronary syndrome patients: heartguardai

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) constitutes a major post-event morbidity in patients experiencing Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS), underscoring the imperative for precise risk stratification methodologies. Traditional prognostic models, although beneficial, are limited by their reliance on a narrow scope of variables, thereby overlooking the comprehensive analytical potential afforded by extensive clinical datasets. Aims To develop "HeartGuardAI," an ensemble machine learning model that predicts HF risk in ACS patients. By incorporating a wide array of variables including ejection fraction (EF), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), body mas index(BMI), male sex, this model seeks to offer a more practical tool for clinical decision-making. Methods We queried ACTION-ACS a large-scale multicenter database of 3335 patients at 10-year follow-up. We employed a feature selection process informed by Random Forest Classifier to identify the most predictive variables. An ensemble model combining the strengths of Random Forest and Gradient Boosting methodologies was then developed. The model's predictive performance was validated through Stratified K-Fold cross-validation, focusing on Area Under the Curve (AUC) and confidence intervals to assess its efficacy. The model's predictive performance was validated through Stratified K-Fold cross-validation, focusing on Area Under the Curve (AUC) and confidence intervals to assess its efficacy. Results Demonstrating a mean AUC of 0.76 ± 0.036, "HeartGuardAI" showed a high capability to predict HF risk in post-ACS patients and emphasizes the significance of incorporating multifactorial clinical assessments Conclusions HF risk can be predicted by a handy tool developed with advanced machine learning methods. Future studies are needed to prospectively validate this algorithm.Graphic 1Graphic 2

Cancer-specific Heart Failure (HF) risk score - a new risk score developed specifically to predict HF among cancer survivors

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is an important long-term complication in cancer survivors, especially in breast and haematological malignancies treated with anthracylines. However, screening for left ventricular dysfunction in all survivors is impractical due to potential low cost-efficiency. So we sought to develop a cancer-specific risk scoring system for HF (CRS-HF). Methods Cancer survivors (n=43,720) participating in the UK-Biobank were evaluated in this study (age 59.9 ± 7.4 years, 62.4% female). Participants were randomized into training and testing dataset with a 7:3 split. A Random Forest algorithm was applied to identify key variables that are predictive for HF incidence among cancer survivors. Results Incident HF developed in 4.3% over a median of 12.9 years. The random forest algorithm identified demographic (age, sex and body mass index), clinical (heart rate, blood pressure and cardiac history), pathology (lipids) results and other patient reported outcome measures (PROMS) that predicted HF with an accuracy of 0.872 (95%CI: 0.867-0.877) in the training set. In the testing set, the accuracy was 0.840 (95%CI: 0.832-0.848) and a reported sensitivity and specificity of 62.42% and 84.93% respectively. Our study also demonstrated that the CRS-HF performed better in ruling out non-HF incidence among survivors from breast cancer and lymphoma (accuracy: 0.858) than other cancer types (accuracy: 0.836). Conclusion The CRS-HF score is a prove-of-concept that appears to be an effective means of identifying HF risk in cancer survivors. Although initial findings demonstrate promising accuracy in forecasting HF occurrences among cancer survivors, comprehensive validation and potential refinements are warranted across diverse population cohorts.

Predicting heart failure in cancer survivors: use of polygenic risk vs clinical score

Abstract Background The risk of heart failure (HF) is increased among cancer survivors, but predicting individual HF risk is difficult. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for HF prediction summarize the combined effect of multiple genetic variants, specific to the individual. We sought to compare clinical HF prediction models with PRS in both cancer- and non-cancer populations. Methods Cancer and HF diagnoses were identified in the UK-Biobank from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. HF risk was calculated using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities score (ARIC-HF). PRS-HF was calculated using the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative. The predictive performance of ARIC-HF and PRS-HF were compared using the area under the curve (AUC) in both cancer- and non-cancer populations. Results After excluding 2,644 participants with HF prior to consent, we identified 440,813 non-cancer participants (mean age 57 years, 53% female) and 43,720 cancer survivors (mean age 60 years, 65% female). Both ARIC-HF and PRS-HF were significant predictors for HF occurrence after adjustment for chronic kidney disease, overall health rating and total cholesterol level. The PRS-HF performed poorly in predicting HF among cancer (AUC: 0.552) and non-cancer populations (AUC: 0.571). However, the ARIC-HF predicted HF incidence in the non-cancer population (AUC: 0.806) and a reasonable performance among the cancer population (AUC: 0.748). Conclusions Prediction of HF occurrence in cancer survivors based on conventional risk factors is superior to PRS. However, both models demonstrate suboptimal discriminative capabilities in forecasting HF, emphasizing the imperative for the development of a cancer-specific HF predictive model.

Spinal cord injury and risk of overall and type specific cardiovascular diseases: A meta-analysis.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a growing concern among people with spinal cord injury (SCI). This meta-analysis aims to explore the risk of overall CVD and specific types of cardiovascular events among SCI patients. This meta-analysis is registered on PROSPERO (CRD CRD42024537888). The data sources comprised PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and reference lists of the included studies. The literature collection span is from database establishment until April 17, 2024. This meta-analysis encompassed observational studies investigating the association between SCI and the risk of overall types of CVD or specific CVD types. Risk of bias was evaluated utilizing the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Scale. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were aggregated using a random-effects model. Our initial search generated 5357 relevant records form these international databases. This meta-analysis encompassed 9 observational studies involving 2,282,691 individuals, comprising 193,045 patients with SCI and 2,209,646 controls. We observed a 1.56-fold [OR = 1.56, 95% CI (1.43, 1.70), I2 = 91.3%, P < 0.001] rise in the risk of overall types of CVD among SCI patients, with a 1.82-fold increase in males and a 1.76-fold increase in females. SCI patients without comorbidities exhibited a 2.10-fold elevated risk of overall CVD types, while those with comorbidities had a 1.48-fold increased risk. Concerning specific CVD types, SCI patients showed a 1.58-fold [OR = 1.57, 95% CI (1.22, 2.03), I2 = 92.4%] higher risk of myocardial infarction, a 1.52-fold [OR = 1.52, 95% CI (1.07, 2.16), I2 = 88.7%] increase in atrial fibrillation, a 1.64-fold [OR = 1.64, 95% CI (1.22, 2.20), I2 = 95.5%] elevation in heart failure risk, and 2.38-fold [OR = 2.38, 95% CI (1.29, 4.40), I2 = 92.5%] increments in stroke risk. But there was no statistically significant difference in the risk of hypertension [OR = 1.54, 95% CI (0.98, 2.42), I2 = 96.6%]. The risk of overall CVD in SCI patients surpassed that of the non-SCI control group, with elevated risks of specific cardiovascular events like myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and stroke. Clinicians should prioritize awareness of CVD risks in SCI patients.

Genotype predicts heart failure independent of left ventricular ejection fraction and NT-proBNP levels in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Abstract Background/Introduction Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a myocardial disease associated with progression to heart failure. In around 40% of cases, the disease is caused by variants in genes encoding sarcomere proteins. Purpose To evaluate the role of genotype in predicting heart failure (HF) outcomes. Methods In this observational single-centre cohort study, consecutive patients with HCM were assessed for heart failure clinically stratified by genetic status into genotype-elusive which included those with no significant variants (G-) or variants of unknown significance (VUS) and genotype-positive (G+) with pathogenic/likely pathogenic (LP/P) variants. Heart failure endpoint was defined as left ventricular assist device implantation, heart transplantation or heart-failure-related death. The incidence of HF endpoint was compared between genotypes during follow-up using a time-to-event analysis. Results 474 patients (50.9 ±14.5 years, 67.3 males) with HCM (25% with left ventricular (LV) outflow obstruction) were followed for 10.9 years (IQR 5.1-13.5). G+ LP/P patients (201/474 (42.4%)) were younger (45.8. ±14.0 years) compared to G- (225/474 (47.5%), 55.2 ±13.4 years) and VUS (48/474 (10.1%), 52.0 ± 15 years); 29/474 (6.1%) reached the heart failure endpoint. The incidence of heart failure endpoints was 12.4% (25/201) in the G+ LP/P group compared to 1.5% (4/273) in the gene elusive group. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model including NT-proBNP and LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and genetic status showed that G+ LP/P was associated with increased risk of heart failure outcomes (HR: 5.11, 95% CI: 1.43–18.25, p=0.012). Every 100-unit rise in NT-proBNP was associated with a 41% increase in risk (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.20–1.66, p&amp;lt;0.0001). A one-unit (1%) reduction in LVEF correlated with a 10% increase in heart failure risk (HR: -0.90, 95% CI: 0.87–0.93, p&amp;lt;0.0001). Conclusion(s) Genetic status is a predictor of heart failure outcomes independent of LVEF and NT-proBNP levels in HCM. This underscores the importance of genetic testing in the clinical management of HCM.

Deep learning detection of subclinical cardiovascular dysfunction in type 2 diabetes through retinal photography

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with excess atherosclerotic coronary disease and heart failure risk, with several cardiac abnormalities described in asymptomatic patients. Routine digital retinal photography performed for screening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) has the potential to identify patients with underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine whether features extracted from digital retinal photographs could detect subclinical cardiovascular dysfunction in asymptomatic people with T2D. Methods We prospectively enrolled adults with T2D and no history or symptoms of CVD to undergo extensive phenotyping with multiparametric stress perfusion cardiac MRI and CT coronary artery calcium scoring. Digital retinal photographs acquired for routine diabetic eye screening and performed within one year of cardiac evaluation were interrogated for retinopathy grading and using four deep learning (DL) models (Xception, Inception, EfficientNet, and MobileNet) to capture complex patterns within the retinal vasculature. Each subject had four retinal photographs (two of each eye) for DL analysis. Cardiac image analysis was performed blinded to participant details and independent of retinal images. Subjects with and without DR were compared. Participants were divided into training (80%) and validation datasets (20%) prior to DL analysis. DL models employed to predict from retinal images: presence or absence of coronary artery calcium on non-contrast CT, myocardial perfusion reserve &amp;lt;2.5, left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain &amp;lt;16%, absolute stress and rest myocardial blood flood (mL/g/min) used as continuous variables. AUC was used to assess the ability of DL models to discriminate between those without and without subclinical CVD. Results An initial 254 subjects (comprising 1,016 retinal photographs) were included in the analysis: 212 (83%) with no DR, 42 (17%) with grade 1 (mild background) DR. Key cardiac imaging parameters in subjects with and without DR are displayed in Table 1. The groups were well matched for age, sex, body mass index and blood pressure. Overall, those with grade 1 DR had higher atheroma burden, evidence of increased LV filling pressures (E/e’) and poorer systolic function, but no differences in stress and rest myocardial blood flow or myocardial perfusion reserve. However, all four DL models failed to achieve sufficient discrimination of any of the evaluated cardiac imaging parameters, with the majority achieving AUC scores below 50% for all cardiac parameters. Conclusion Asymptomatic adults with grade 1 DR exhibit more subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular dysfunction than those without DR. However, DL transfer models could not discriminate between subjects with and without cardiovascular disease. Further work is needed to better define whether retinal screening may be used to identify those people with T2D most at risk of underlying cardiovascular disease.Subjects demographics

Associations between heart rate, deformational echocardiographic parameters and clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background The relationship between baseline heart rates and cardiac function in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unknown, as does its impact on long-term outcomes. Methods Patients with newly diagnosed AF and available echocardiography images were included. Conventional echocardiography measurement and myocardial deformation analyses using two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography were performed during AF. Clinical endpoints included first-time hospitalization for ischemic stroke, heart failure (HF), all-cause mortality, and composite endpoint. Results Patients were categorized into groups according to baseline heart rates: 40-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, and ≥120 beats per minutes (bpm). As heart rates increased, there was a stepwise decrease of peak atrial longitudinal systolic strain (PALS: 14.6 ± 5.3%, 14.7 ± 5.5%, 14.1 ± 4.6%, 13.4 ± 4.7%,12.6 ± 4.9%, 12.1 ± 4.5%, 11.2 ± 5.2% and 10.8±4.1% in 40-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, and ≥120 bpm groups, respectively; P &amp;lt; 0.001)) and LV strain (-13.8 ± 3.9%, -14.5 ± 4.0%, -13.4 ± 3.4%, -13.4 ± 3.6%, -12.5 ± 3.6%, -11.9 ± 3.8%, -10.3 ± 3.8%, and -10.2 ± 3.8%, in 40-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, and ≥120 bpm groups, respectively; P &amp;lt; 0.001)(Figure). The lowest risk of composite endpoint was observed for patients whose heart rate between 60 to 69 bpm (Figure). Compared to the 60-69 heart rate group, faster heart rates were associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] 4.448 in the ≥120 bpm group), HF (aHR 1.909 in the ≥120 bpm group), mortality (aHRs 2.487, 2.810, 4.569, 4.760 in the 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, and ≥120 bpm groups, respectively), and composite endpoint (aHRs 2.034, 2.349, 3.492 in the 100-109, 110-119, and ≥120 bpm groups, respectively) (all P &amp;lt; 0.05). Conclusion In patients with AF, heart rate is closely linked to cardiac function and plays a pivotal role in long-term prognosis. Faster heart rates were associated with worse LA/LV functions and increased risk of clinical events. Favorable outcomes were found at heart rates below 100 bpm, with even better LA/LV function noted at heart rates below 80 bpm.

Prognostic importance of persistent elevations in high-sensitivity troponin T in the early convalescent phase (two weeks) following high-risk myocardial infarction: insights from the PARADISE-MI trial

Abstract Introduction Myocardial infarction (MI) is defined by a rise and fall in cardiac troponin (cTn) with clinical evidence of acute myocardial ischemia. How often cTn remains elevated in high-risk patients stabilized following MI and the relation between convalescent cTn levels and subsequent clinical outcomes in these patients is unknown. Aims To evaluate the prognostic importance of high-sensitivity cTn T (hs-cTnT) in the early convalescent phase of a MI for a range of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients enrolled in the Prospective ARNI vs ACE inhibitor trial to DetermIne Superiority in reducing heart failure Events after Myocardial Infarction (PARADISE-MI). Methods Patients ≥18 years without prior heart failure (HF) (n=5661) were randomized to sacubitril/valsartan or ramipril within 0.5 to 7 days of MI complicated by transient pulmonary congestion, LVEF ≤40%, or both. Hs-cTnT was measured using the Roche Elecsys Troponin T-high-sensitive assay in 1093 patients two weeks after randomization (median 2.6 weeks after the index MI). Associations between log (2)-transformed hs-cTnT and clinical outcomes were investigated in landmark analyses using Cox regression models adjusted for clinical covariates of known prognostic importance and NT-proBNP (Figure). Results Median week 2 hs-cTnT concentration was 34 ng/L [IQR 17-94 ng/L] and exceeded the 99th percentile upper reference limit in 69% of patients. Patients with persistently elevated hs-cTnT concentrations (n=753) were older, more likely men, more commonly had atrial fibrillation and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and less likely had a prior MI. They more commonly had presented with ST-segment elevation MI and pulmonary congestion and had higher concentrations of NT-proBNP. Rates of primary reperfusion were similar. Log(2)-transformed hs-cTnT was only weakly correlated with LVEF (rho = -0.15, p&amp;lt;0.001), irrespective of the type of MI. hs-cTnT was independently and linearly associated with the primary composite outcome of CV death or incident HF (adj HR 1.17 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.03 – 1.34), all-cause death (adj HR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01 – 1.44) and CV death (adj HR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02 – 1.52) but not with non-CV death (adj HR 1.04; 95% CI, 0.70-1.54). hs-cTnT was not significantly associated with recurrent fatal or non-fatal MI (adj HR 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.18) (Figure). Concentrations of week 2 hs-cTnT were not altered by sacubitril/valsartan relative to ramipril (+4%; 95% CI, -8% to 18%). Conclusions Persistent elevations in hs-cTnT during the early convalescent phase following high-risk MI are common and are associated with heightened risk of all-cause death, CV death and incident HF but not of recurrent MI or non-CV death. hs-cTnT measured ~2.5 weeks after high-risk MI provides incremental prognostic information beyond traditional risk factors and NT-proBNP.

Long-term changes in frailty and incident atrial fibrillation: multicenter prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and is prevalent among the elderly. Previous findings indicated a higher prevalence of AF in frail adults and frailty prevalent in AF patients. However, the association between dynamic changes of frailty and risk of new-onset AF is unclear. Purpose We aimed to investigate the associations of long-term changes in frailty with incident AF. Its associations with heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke were also evaluated as a secondary aim. Methods Over 50,000 participants from UK Biobank cohort were included, with available frailty index (FI) data and free of AF, HF, CHD or stroke in both baseline and final follow-up assessments. Participants were categorized into nonfrailty, prefrailty and frailty based on their FI scores. Changes of frailty status from baseline to final follow-up assessment included alleviation, maintenance, and aggravation. Thus, transitions of frailty status included 7 categories: nonfrailty maintenance, nonfrailty aggravation (nonfrailty to prefrailty or frailty), prefrailty alleviation (prefrailty to nonfrailty), prefrailty maintenance, prefrailty aggravation (prefrailty to frailty), frailty alleviation (frailty to prefrailty or nonfrailty), and frailty maintenance. FI in baseline and follow-ups are used to calculate the trajectories of frailty (ΔFI). Cox proportional hazard models were used. Results Compared with nonfrailty at baseline, the HRs (95% CI) of AF for prefrailty and frailty were 1.32 (1.29, 1.36) and 1.89 (1.83, 1.96) in the multivariable-adjusted model. During a median of 5.1 years of follow-up from the final assessment, 1729 cases of AF were recorded. Frailty trajectory analysis showed that even a 0.01 point/year increase in ΔFI was associated with 14% (95% CI 1.08-1.20) higher risk of AF, independent of baseline FI and the risk rose to 1.89 (1.45, 2.46) with per 0.05 point/year increase in ΔFI. This association was strengthened in low genetic risk of AF, but sex, age, smoking status, alcohol intake, obesity, hypertension, diabetes and cancer did not materially modify the associations. Moreover, compared with nonfrailty maintenance, sustained frailty had the highest risk of AF (HR 1.95, 1.61-2.36). Alleviation from frailty reduced the risk of AF by 30% (95%CI 0.53-0.94), compared to sustained frailty. These associations were similar in HF and CHD, however, not significant in stroke. Conclusions Middle aged and elderly people, including those with diabetes, obesity and hypertension, may gain substantial benefits in risk of AF, HF and CHD by becoming less frail or maintaining nonfrailty, irrespective of past frailty status and established risk factors, delivering public health implications for the necessity of early identification and timely interventions of frailty in heart health management.

A liberal blood transfusion strategy is safe in patients with myocardial infarction, anemia, and heart failure: lessons from MINT

Abstract Background In patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) and anemia, the Myocardial Ischemia and Transfusion (MINT) trial found a trend toward increased 30-day death or recurrent MI with a restrictive compared with a liberal blood transfusion strategy. Patients with and without heart failure (HF) may respond differently to blood transfusion. Purpose To characterize the effects of restrictive vs. liberal transfusion strategies on clinical outcomes in patients with MI and anemia with and without baseline HF. Methods In the MINT trial, 3504 patients with MI and hemoglobin &amp;lt;10 g/dL were randomized to restrictive (7-8 g/dL) or liberal (10 g/dL) transfusion thresholds. We compared outcomes between patients with and without baseline HF, defined as any history of HF, acute HF, or baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) &amp;lt;45%. Outcomes included death or incident HF, death or recurrent MI, death, and incident HF, all at 30 days. Results Compared with patients without baseline HF (n=1633), patients with baseline HF (overall n=1871 (history of HF n=1066, acute HF n=780, LVEF &amp;lt;45% n= 1099) were older, more frequently male and Black, and had higher rates of prior PCI, diabetes, and hypertension. In the restrictive strategy, patients with and without baseline HF received an average of 0.63 and 0.80 units of blood and had a median LOS of 6 and 4 days, respectively. In the liberal strategy, patients with and without baseline HF received an average of 2.44 and 2.49 units of blood and had a median LOS of 5 and 4 days, respectively. Patients with baseline HF had higher rates of death or incident HF (18.0% vs. 10.0%, risk ratio [RR]=1.79 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.50-2.13]), death or recurrent MI (17.6% vs. 13.5%, RR=1.31 [95% CI 1.12-1.53]), and death (10.5% vs. 7.5%, RR 1.41 [95% CI 1.14-1.75]). Among patients with baseline HF, a restrictive transfusion strategy resulted in a trend toward an increase in death or HF and death or MI compared with a liberal transfusion strategy (Table, Figure). Among patients without baseline HF, the risk of incident HF was lower with restrictive than with liberal transfusion strategy. Conclusions Among patients with MI and anemia, a restrictive transfusion strategy resulted in a greater increase in death or HF, death or MI, and death in patients with baseline HF than in patients without baseline HF. A liberal transfusion strategy is safe for patients with MI and anemia, including those with prior or acute HF.TableFigure

Hypnotic use and the risk of cardiovascular diseases in insomnia patients

Abstract Background Insomnia, commonly treated with hypnotic agents, is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular diseases. Previous research demonstrated the detrimental effect of hypnotics on the prognosis of cardiovascular patients. Purpose We aimed to examine the association between hypnotic agents and cardiovascular outcomes in general individuals with insomnia. Methods In a propensity score matched cohort of UK Biobank (UKB) participants with insomnia, Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the association between regular use of hypnotic agents and predetermined cardiovascular outcomes including incident coronary heart diseases (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, and cardiovascular death. Inverse probability of treatment weighting and competing risk models were further performed during sensitivity analysis. Drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were employed for further evaluation of hypnotics-related genes and cardiovascular disease association. The genome-wide association data of CHD, HF, and stroke were there large-scale genome-wide association analyses. Tissue-specified expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data was derived from BrainSeq phase II. Results During a median follow-up of 14.3 years, the matched cohort documented a total of 1,019 CHD cases, 406 HF cases, 285 stroke cases, and 197 cardiovascular deaths. No significant association was detected between Z-meds and CHD, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with the increased risk of CHD, HF, and cardiovascular mortality (Figure 1). The inverse probability of treatment weighting and competing risk models didn’t alter the above associations. Moreover, drug-target MR analyses corroborated the safety of Z-meds in the general population regarding cardiovascular health. However, GABRG1—a drug target for benzodiazepines—was associated with heightened risks for heart failure, and ischemic stroke (Figure 2). Conclusions Our findings suggested the heterogeneous associations between different categories of hypnotics and incident cardiovascular events in individuals with insomnia. Z-meds are safe regarding the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in the UKB population with insomnia.Figure 1Figure 2

The impact of the 2022 definition of pulmonary hypertension on long-term clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Abstract @ Backgrounds: In recent years, the definitions of pulmonary hypertension (PH) have been revised for early diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with PH. Using the 2015 definitions, the development of a precapillary component of PH in addition to a postcapillary PH was associated with right heart dysfunction and poor prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, the prognostic impact of revised definitions of PH in patients with HFpEF has not been fully evaluated. Purpose We investigated the impact of the 2018 and 2022 ESC/ERS definitions of PH on long-term clinical outcomes using data from a prospective, multicenter, observational study of patients with HFpEF (PURSUIT-HFpEF). Methods A total of 250 patients hospitalised with acute HF who underwent right heart catheterisation after initial HF treatment were divided into PH categories according to the 2018 and 2022 definitions: isolated postcapillary PH (Ipc-PH), precapillary PH, combined postcapillary and precapillary PH (Cpc-PH), and unclassified PH. The incidence of the composite endpoint of all-cause death and HF rehospitalisation after discharge was compared across the PH categories. Results The overall prevalence of PH defined as a mPAP &amp;gt; 20 mmHg was 54%. Applying the 2022 definition, 42 patients (17%) were reclassified as either precapillary PH or Cpc-PH, resulting in a significant increase in the propotion of patients classified as having PH with a precapillary component (precapillary PH and Cpc-PH) compared with the 2018 definition (26% vs. 11%, p&amp;lt;0.0001). At a median follow-up of 822 days after discharge, PH with a precapillary component was associated with poor clinical outcomes according to the 2018 definition (Figure 1A), but according to the 2022 definition, clinical outcomes did not differ across the PH categories (Figure 1B). PVR ≥3 Wood units (WU) was a significant prognostic indicator, but there was no significant difference between the PVR 2-3 WU and PVR ≤2 WU categories (Figure 2). Conclusions The 2022 definition showed no association between PH classification and clinical outcomes. In patients with HFpEF, PVR ≥3 WU was identified as the key factor increasing the risk of all-cause death and HF hospitalisation.Figure 1Figure 2

Cardiovascular disease burden and risk factor management in cancer survivors: insights from a large-scale East London cohort

Abstract Introduction Improvements in cancer survival have led to an urgent need to address long-term health issues among survivors, notably increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Shared risk factors may underpin at least part of this excess risk. Aims To investigate differences in cardiovascular risk profile between cancer survivors and controls; and to assesses the management of hypertension and statin use among cancer survivors compared with controls in a multi-ethnic and socio-economically diverse population. Methods The data were obtained from electronic health records of 1.2 million people registered with general practices in East London. It provides a snapshot of health records at the time of data extraction (01/01/2023). We identify individuals with record of past cancer (grouped into 20 cancer types) and their cardiovascular profile. Each cancer-exposed patient was age- and sex-matched to four non-cancer comparators. Multivariable logistic regression, with extensive adjustment for demographic and health-related variables, was used to elucidate the independent associations of past cancer with a range of cardiovascular outcomes. Patterns of guideline-directed risk factor control among cancer patients with hypertension and ischaemic CVDs (vs non-cancer controls) were assessed. Results The study consisted of 18,839 cancer survivors and 75,356 matched controls (64±15 years, 43% male), with marked ethnic diversity (cancer survivors: 48% White, 24% Black and 22% Asian) and socio-economic deprivation. Compared to matched controls, patients with past cancer had a higher prevalence of hypertension (44% vs. 41%) and chronic kidney disease (18% vs. 14%). We observed a higher prevalence of CVDs including venous thromboembolism (VTE) (5.6% vs. 2.8%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (6.5% vs. 5%), and heart failure (HF) (4.4% vs. 3.4%) among cancer survivors. Regression models fully adjusted for shared risk factors demonstrated an increased risk of a range of CVDs in patients with (any) past cancer, including VTE (OR 2.01), HF (OR 1.31) and AF (OR 1.27). CVD risk varied across cancer types (Figure 1). For example, lung cancer survivors had an elevated risk of VTE (OR 4.02), AF (OR 2.47), IHD (OR 1.45) and peripheral artery disease (OR 1.67) while colorectal cancer survivors had increased risks of VTE (OR 2.68), HF (OR 1.4) and AF (OR 1.32). In subgroup analyses, control of blood pressure and cholesterol did not differ significantly across cancer survivors and matched controls with hypertension and ischaemic CVDs, respectively. Conclusion We show higher burden of VRFs and an increased risk of CVDs among cancer survivors compared with non-cancer controls, with notable variation across cancer types. The lack of difference in control of blood pressure and cholesterol between cancer survivors and controls suggests that these risk factors did not explain the increased risk. Suggesting that an individualised approach to risk management is likely to be warranted.Risk of CVDs in Cancer Survivors

Undetected heart failure in tertiary care: prevalence, predictors and outcomes

Abstract Background Undetected heart failure (HF) seems to be unexpectedly common in primary care. We hypothesized that undetected HF may also be common in tertiary care, even in care pathways including cardiologists. Methods We assessed prevalence, predictors, and outcome of undetected HF in a large prospective cohort study enrolling patients referred for myocardial perfusion single photon emission tomography (MPI-SPECT) with central adjudication of HF according to guidelines. Findings were validated in two independent prospective cohorts (outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, major noncardiac surgery). Prevalence of undetected HF, ratio of undetected HF to known HF and number needed to screen (NNS) were the primary endpoints. Results Among 3623 patients, median age 68 years, 31% women. 100 patients (3%) had known HF and 928 patients (25.6%) were adjudicated to have undetected HF, resulting in a ratio of undetected to known HF of 9.3-to-1 and a NNS of 2.8. Older age, atrial fibrillation, and previous pacemaker implantation were strong independent predictors of undetected HF. Patients with undetected HF were at significantly higher risk of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (adjusted HR 1.47 [95%CI, 1.17-1.85] versus no HF). These findings were confirmed in both validation cohorts: among 970 and 1563 patients the prevalence of undetected HF was 21.5% and 19%, ratio of undetected HF to known HF 0.7-to-1 and 2.8-to-1, NNS 2.2 and 3.7, respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of undetected HF is high also in tertiary care, even higher with older age, atrial fibrillation, and previous pacemaker implantation, and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization.Prevalence of undetected HFKaplan-Meier cumulative incidence curves

One-year risk of all-cause death and major cardiovascular events in patients presenting with hypertensive crisis. A report from a global federated research health network

Abstract Background Few data are available about the clinical course of patients presenting with hypertensive crisis who are discharged alive from hospital. Purpose To assess the long-term risk of adverse events in patients with hypertensive crises. Methods Retrospective study utilizing a research health network. Based on the ICD-10-CM codes recorded between 2000 and 2022, from 85 health care associations mainly located in the United States, patients with hypertensive crisis were subdivided into hypertensive urgencies (I16.0) and hypertensive emergencies (I16.1). In those with hypertensive emergencies, the type of target organ damage was reported, ie. central nervous system (ischemic stroke, hypertensive encephalopathy, intracerebral hemorrhages), cardiovascular (CVS: myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), aorta dissection (AD)), or renal (acute kidney failure). Primary outcomes were the one-year risks of all-cause death, and major cardiovascular events (MACE: MI, stroke, cardiac arrest, AD, and HF). Secondary outcomes were the risks for each type of MACE. Cox regression analysis after propensity score matching (PSM) 1:1 was used to produce hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CIs). Results Overall, we identified 25 294 patients with hypertensive emergency (age 62.4±15.7, 46.1% females) and 21,737 patients with hypertensive urgency (age 63.5±17.2, 55.5% females). Patients with hypertensive emergency were more likely males, Black or African American origin and showed a higher prevalence of chronic hypertensive-related complications, vs. those with hypertensive urgency. After PSM, patients with hypertensive emergency showed a higher risk of all-cause death (HR, 1.34, 95%CI 1.25-1.44) and MACE (HR 4.09, 95%CI 3.87-4.33), vs. those with hypertensive urgency. Of the secondary outcomes, patients with hypertensive emergency had increased risks of MI (HR 3.33, 95%CI 3.03-3.67), stroke (HR 4.73, 95%CI 4.33-5.17), cardiac arrest (HR 1.30, 95%CI 1.07-1.58), AD (HR 5.49, 95%CI 3.90-7.73), and HF (HR 3.01, 95%CI 2.74-3.14). All the different types of organ involvement during the hypertensive emergency were each associated with similar long-term risks of adverse events (Figure 1). Conclusion Patients with hypertensive emergency have a high long-term risk of MACE and all-cause death. Preventing the onset of target organ damage in patients with hypertensive crisis is crucial to mitigate their long-term risk of adverse events.

Cardiac MRI traits linked to cardiomyopathy mutations in phenotype naive carriers

Abstract Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) are prevalent forms of cardiomyopathies, characterised by changes in cardiac structure and function, associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Due to these potential life-threatening consequences close monitoring of genetic mutation carriers of HCM and DCM, is important. However, disease onset in these subjects is highly variable, with a substantial subset of people only developing disease late-in-life, or not at all, making risk stratification challenging. We set out to identify cardiac MRI (CMR) based imaging biomarkers of HCM and DCM carriership in phenotype naïve individuals, which were benchmarked against associations with AF and HF. CMR and whole genome sequencing (n: 42,723) data were sourced from a UK biobank sample free of heart failure at the time of CMR measurements. A previously validated deep learning(DL) network was used to derive 22 CMR traits(1). Adjusted cox regression models were used to determine the CMR associations with the onset of heart failure and atrial fibrillation, providing empirical validation of the DL CMR network. Univariable and multivariable generalised linear models were employed to identify associations with genetic carriership conditional on cardiac risk factors. 14 and 19 CMR measurements were associated with the time until HF (274 cases), AF (704 cases), respectively. These variables included left-ventricle (LV) ejection fraction (EF), LV end systolic volume (ESV), Right-ventricular (RV) EF and right atrial (RA) EF. Using WGS data we identified 154 people with an HCM mutation and 220 with a DCM mutation, where HCM carriership associated with five and DCM with four CMR traits. This included RA-EF (OR 1.26 95%CI 1.10; 1.45), and RV-EF (OR 1.41 95%CI 1.23;1,63) for HCM, and LV-EF (OR 0.72 95%CI 0.62; 0.84), and RV stroke volume (OR 0.75 95CI 0.62; 0.91) for DCM. By combining deep learning of CMR with large sample size WGS we were able to identify cardiac imaging biomarkers of HCM and DCM carriership in apparently healthy subjects. This could prove relevant for early identification and monitoring of phenotype naïve people.

Systemic inflammation and risk of death in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease

Abstract Background Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and chronic kidney disease stage 3 - 4 (CKD) affects 7% and 10% of the Danish population, respectively. Systemic inflammation (SI) contributes to destabilisation of atherosclerotic plaques and is characterized by elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in the blood. CKD is associated with SI and is independently associated with an increased risk of ASCVD. CRP levels ≥2 mg/L have been identified as a risk factor for mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Purpose To provide real-world evidence on the clinical burden of SI in patients diagnosed with ASCVD and CKD, using national health registers. Method Data from the Danish National Patient Registry from 1994-2022 was used to identify ASCVD patients by ICD-10 codes. CKD was identified by eGFR test results in the range [15 -59mL/min/1.73m2], in the Register of Laboratory Results for Research (RLRR). The latter diagnosis of ASCVD and CKD was set as index date. CRP-test results were extracted from RLRR and only individuals with at least two CRP tests were included. If two CRP-test results ≥2mg/L to &amp;lt; 20mg/L were observed less than six month apart, and within two years of index date, the individual was classified to have SI. The eGFR data from RLRR was available from 2011 onwards, with some regional differences in reporting. Individuals observed with CKD or ASCVD in the first year of eGFR availability were excluded to ensure a study of incident individuals. Individuals using select medications or diagnosed with selected chronic conditions thought to influence CRP levels were excluded. Additional population characteristics were extracted from corresponding national health and administrative registers. Hazard of all-cause mortality and MACE was analysed in a Cox proportional risk regression. Results From 2012 to 2022, a total of 19,162 individuals were eligible for the study population (SI: 13,039, No SI: 6,123). Median follow-up time was 4.1 and 8.2 years for individuals with or without SI, respectively. Median CRP two years before and after index date in the two groups was 7mg/L and 1mg/L. No clinically significant differences were found for demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. Patients with SI had more frequent history of hypertension, atrial fibrillation, COPD, heart failure and Type 2 diabetes before index, and higher risk of hypertension, atrial fibrillation, stroke, heart failure and type 2 diabetes after index. SI population had significantly increased hazard of mortality in a crude model (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: [2.22 – 2.50]), and in adjusted analysis HR: 2.06 ([1.92 - 2.21]). The corresponding hazard ratios for MACE were 1.9 ([1.81 – 2.01]) and 1.66 ([1.57 – 1.77]). The results were consistent across different model specifications and subgroups. Conclusion SI is associated with a significantly higher clinical burden of disease and a higher risk of all-cause mortality.Flowchart of inclusion/exclusionHazard ratio, overall and by subgroup

The association of NT-proBNP levels in atrial fibrillation patients and 3-year risk of heart hospitalization and death

Abstract Background NT-proBNP-levels are often elevated in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but their clinical use and interpretation for predicting subsequent cardiovascular events has not been explored in an all-comers setting. Aim To determine whether NT-proBNP levels are associated with the risk of subsequent heart failure (CHF) and/or death in patients with AF and its relation to prior CHF diagnosis Method All patients with new-onset AF (defined by ICD-code I48) who had an NT-proBNP-level within +/- 14 days of the date of the AF date measured in a regional laboratory repository between 2000-2021 were included in the analysis cohort. Patients were categorized into NT-proBNP level (pg/mL) &amp;lt;1000, 1000-1999, ≥2000. If several NT-proBNP-levels were measured, the maximal value was used. The association between NT-proBNP level and the outcome CHF hospitalization and/or death within 3 years of diagnosis was assessed in Cox regression analyses adjusted for baseline characteristic and medications. Since there was an interaction (p&amp;lt;0.001) between Nt-proBNP-level and prior/new-onset CHF at time of AF diagnosis and no known CHF, two separate analyses were performed in patients with or new-onset CHF and those without prior CHF. Results There were 10559 patients with AF and no CHF, and 11 257 with AF and CHF. There were 14% of patients with new-onset CHF at time of new-onset AF diagnosis. These were grouped together with patients with known CHF. Patients with no prior CHF were younger (76 years (95% CI 68-83) vs 80 (72-87), p&amp;lt;0.001), and healthier with less often diabetes (18.4% vs 24.5%, p&amp;lt;0.001), prior myocardial infarction (12.0% vs 24.3%), a lower CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.0 vs 5.0, p&amp;lt;0.001) and a lower median NT-proBNP level (1650 pg/mL (95% CI 702-3549) vs 4240 pg/mL (2160-8860), p&amp;lt;0.001). Among patients with AF and no prior CHF, the incidence rate in the lowest NT-proBNP level was low, but increased with higher levels (Table). Adjusting for covariates and medications, the risk of both CHF hospitalization and CHF/death compared to the reference category NTproBNP&amp;lt; 1000 pg/mL was nearly 2 and 3 times higher among those who with initial NT-proBNP level 1000-1999 and ≥ 2000. Among patients with AF and known CHF, the incidence rate of CHF hospitalization or CHF hospitalization/death at the same NT-proBNP-strata was several times higher compared to patients without known CHF. Adjusting for covariates, the risk increased for CHF hospitalization or CHF/hospitalization similarly for each strata as for patients without known CHF. AF patients without known HF but with the highest elevation of NTproBNP-level had a risk of subsequent hospitalization of heart failure which was higher than those with known heart failure and lowest NTproBNP-level. Conclusion A higher NTproBNP-level in patients with AF identifies patients at higher risk of CHF hospitalization and/or death in both patients with no and prior CHF.Table

Impact of various iron deficiency definitions on mortality risk in chronic heart failure across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction spectrum

Abstract Introduction Iron deficiency (ID) is prevalent in chronic heart failure (HF) but lacks a consensus definition. Purpose This study evaluates the prevalence of ID and its association with all-cause mortality and first hospitalization for HF, using current European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines, transferrin saturation (TSAT) &amp;lt;20%, ferritin &amp;lt;100 ng/ml, and serum iron ≤13 μmol/L as ID criteria. Methods and Results Of 8587 new-onset HF patients registered in the Danish Heart Failure Registry from April 2003 to July 2021, we found varying ID prevalence (35.4% to 67%) based on different definitions. In heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients, irrespective of anemia, ID defined by TSAT &amp;lt;20% and serum iron ≤13 μmol/L was associated with all-cause mortality (non-anemic, HR: 1.42, 95% CI:1.22-1.64 and HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.1-1.43; anemic, HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.1-1.35 and HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.12-1.41, respectively) and first HF hospitalization (non-anemic, HR:1.41, 95% CI:1.23-1.62, HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.18-1.51; anemic, HR:1.27, 95% CI:1.12-1.45 and HR: 1.26, 95% CI:1.09-1.45, respectively). ID per ESC guidelines was only associated to mortality in non-anemic HFrEF (HR: 1.24, 95% CI:1.09-1.42) and first HF hospitalization in HFrEF, irrespective of anemia (non- anemic, HR:1.24, 95% CI:1.09-1.42; anemic, HR:1.35, 95% CI:1.2-1.52). No association was observed between the various definitions and outcomes in patients with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Conclusion ID, when defined by TSAT &amp;lt;20% or serum iron ≤13 μmol/L, is associated with increased mortality and first hospitalization in HFrEF patients, regardless of anemia. Conversely, ID as per ESC guidelines is associated with mortality in non-anemic HFrEF patients and first hospitalization in HFrEF, irrespective of anemia status.Figure 1:Forest plot mortalityFigure 2:Forest plot hospitalization

Effects of Sacubitril/Valsartan on all-cause hospitalizations in heart failure: participant-level pooled analysis of PARADIGM-HF and PARAGON-HF

Abstract Background Sacubitril/valsartan is indicated to reduce the risk of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in patients with chronic HF. However, many of these patients are older and have multiple comorbidities that increase the risk of hospitalizations other than HF, yet the effects of sacubitril/valsartan on hospitalizations of any cause have not been well described. Methods PARADIGM-HF and PARAGON-HF were phase-3, global multicenter randomized clinical trials that evaluated sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril (in PARADIGM-HF) or valsartan (in PARAGON-HF) across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; ≤40% in PARADIGM-HF and ≥45% in PARAGON-HF). We pooled individual participant-level data from these 2 trials to examine the effects of sacubitril/valsartan on time-to-first investigator-reported all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by geographic region and trial. We additionally examined heterogeneity in treatment response by LVEF. Results Over 2.8 years median follow-up, among 13,194 participants in the pooled PARADIGM-HF/PARAGON-HF, sacubitril/valsartan significantly reduced the risk of all-cause hospitalizations compared with renin-angiotensin system inhibitor (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.88-0.97; P=0.002); Figure 1 Panel A. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) was 2.1 per 100 patient-years corresponding to a number-needed-to-treat (NNT) of 48 patient-years of treatment exposure to prevent 1 all-cause hospitalization. Reductions in overall hospitalizations among patients with identifiable causes (N=5,783) seemed to be primarily driven by lower rates of cardiac and pulmonary hospitalizations associated with sacubitril/valsartan. Patients treated with sacubitril/valsartan did not have a higher rate of composite non-cardiac hospitalizations (Figure 1 Panel B). Similarly, sacubitril/valsartan reduced the risk of the composite of all-cause hospitalization or all-cause mortality (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.96; P&amp;lt;0.001), with an ARR of 2.5 per 100 patients-years and an NNT of 40 patient-years. For all-cause hospitalization, we observed significant heterogeneity by LVEF as a continuous measure (Pinteraction=0.027); treatment effects were most apparent in those with an LVEF below 60% (HR 0.91 95% CI 0.86-0.96; Figure 2). Conclusions In a pooled analysis of &amp;gt;13,000 patients with chronic HF, sacubitril/valsartan reduced hospitalization for any reason with benefits most apparent among those with an LVEF below normal.