Health Technology Assessment Research Articles

A cloud-based medical device for predicting cardiac risk in suspected coronary artery disease: a rapid review and conceptual economic model.

The CaRi-Heart® device estimates risk of 8-year cardiac death, using a prognostic model, which includes perivascular fat attenuation index, atherosclerotic plaque burden and clinical risk factors. To provide an Early Value Assessment of the potential of CaRi-Heart Risk to be an effective and cost-effective adjunctive investigation for assessment of cardiac risk, in people with stable chest pain/suspected coronary artery disease, undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography. This assessment includes conceptual modelling which explores the structure and evidence about parameters required for model development, but not development of a full executable cost-effectiveness model. Twenty-four databases, including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and EMBASE, were searched from inception to October 2022. Review methods followed published guidelines. Study quality was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Results were summarised by research question: prognostic performance; prevalence of risk categories; clinical effects; costs of CaRi-Heart. Exploratory searches were conducted to inform conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling. The only included study indicated that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8 years cardiac death. The hazard ratio, per unit increase in CaRi-Heart Risk, adjusted for smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Duke index, presence of high-risk plaque features and epicardial adipose tissue volume, was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.06) in the model validation cohort. Based on Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool, this study was rated as having high risk of bias and high concerns regarding its applicability to the decision problem specified for this Early Value Assessment. We did not identify any studies that reported information about the clinical effects or costs of using CaRi-Heart to assess cardiac risk. Exploratory searches, conducted to inform the conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling, indicated that there is a deficiency with respect to evidence about the effects of changing existing treatments or introducing new treatments, based on assessment of cardiac risk (by any method), or on measures of vascular inflammation (e.g. fat attenuation index). A de novo conceptual decision-analytic model that could be used to inform an early assessment of the cost effectiveness of CaRi-Heart is described. A combination of a short-term diagnostic model component and a long-term model component that evaluates the downstream consequences is anticipated to capture the diagnosis and the progression of coronary artery disease. The rapid review methods and pragmatic additional searches used to inform this Early Value Assessment mean that, although areas of potential uncertainty have been described, we cannot definitively state where there are evidence gaps. The evidence about the clinical utility of CaRi-Heart Risk is underdeveloped and has considerable limitations, both in terms of risk of bias and applicability to United Kingdom clinical practice. There is some evidence that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8-year risk of cardiac death, for patients undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease. However, whether and to what extent CaRi-Heart represents an improvement relative to current standard of care remains uncertain. The evaluation of the CaRi-Heart device is ongoing and currently available data are insufficient to fully inform the cost-effectiveness modelling. A large (n=15,000) ongoing study, NCT05169333, the Oxford risk factors and non-invasive imaging study, with an estimated completion date of February 2030, may address some of the uncertainties identified in this Early Value Assessment. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022366496. This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135672) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Treatment options for patients with pilonidal sinus disease: PITSTOP, a mixed-methods evaluation.

There is no consensus on optimal management of pilonidal disease. Surgical practice is varied, and existing literature is mainly single-centre cohort studies of varied disease severity, interventions and outcome assessments. A prospective cohort study to determine: • disease severity and intervention relationship • most valued outcomes and treatment preference by patients • recommendations for policy and future research. Observational cohort study with nested mixed-methods case study. Discrete choice experiment. Clinician survey. Three-stage Delphi survey for patients and clinicians. Inter-rater reliability of classification system. Thirty-one National Health Service trusts. Patients aged > 16 years referred for elective surgical treatment of pilonidal disease. Surgery. Pain postoperative days 1 and 7, time to healing and return to normal activities, complications, recurrence. Outcomes compared between major and minor procedures using regression modelling, propensity score-based approaches and augmented inverse probability weighting to account for measured potential confounding features. Clinician survey: There was significant heterogeneity in surgeon practice preference. Limited training opportunities may impede efforts to improve practice. Cohort study: Over half of patients (60%; N = 667) had a major procedure. For these procedures, pain was greater on day 1 and day 7 (mean difference day 1 pain 1.58 points, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 2.01 points, n = 536; mean difference day 7 pain 1.53 points, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.95 points, n = 512). There were higher complication rates (adjusted risk difference 17.5%, 95% confidence interval 9.1 to 25.9%, n = 579), lower recurrence (adjusted risk difference -10.1%, 95% confidence interval -18.1 to -2.1%, n = 575), and longer time to healing (>34 days estimated difference) and time to return to normal activities (difference 25.9 days, 95% confidence interval 18.4 to 33.4 days). Mixed-methods analysis: Patient decision-making was influenced by prior experience of disease and anticipated recovery time. The burden involved in wound care and the gap between expected and actual time for recovery were the principal reasons given for decision regret. Discrete choice experiment: The strongest predictors of patient treatment choice were risk of infection/persistence (attribute importance 70%), and shorter recovery time (attribute importance 30%). Patients were willing to trade off these attributes. Those aged over 30 years had a higher risk tolerance (22.35-34.67%) for treatment failure if they could experience rapid recovery. There was no strong evidence that younger patients were willing to accept higher risk of treatment failure in exchange for a faster recovery. Patients were uniform in rejecting excision-and-leave-open because of the protracted nursing care it entailed. Wysocki classification analysis: There was acceptable inter-rater agreement (κ = 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.61). Consensus exercise: Five research and practice priorities were identified. The top research priority was that a comparative trial should broadly group interventions. The top practice priority was that any interventions should be less disruptive than the disease itself. Incomplete recruitment and follow-up data were an issue, particularly given the multiple interventions. Assumptions were made regarding risk adjustment. Results suggest the burden of pilonidal surgery is greater than reported previously. This can be mitigated with better selection of intervention according to disease type and patient desired goals. Results indicate a framework for future higher-quality trials that stratify disease and utilise broad groupings of common interventions with development of a patient-centred core outcome set. This trial is registered as ISRCTN95551898. This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/17/02) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 33. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Emollient application from birth to prevent eczema in high-risk children: the BEEP RCT.

Atopic eczema is a common childhood skin problem linked with asthma, food allergy and allergic rhinitis that impairs quality of life. To determine whether advising parents to apply daily emollients in the first year can prevent eczema and/or other atopic diseases in high-risk children. A United Kingdom, multicentre, pragmatic, two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled prevention trial with follow-up to 5 years. Twelve secondary and four primary care centres. Healthy infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema, screened and consented during the third trimester or post delivery. Infants were randomised (1 : 1) within 21 days of birth to apply emollient (Doublebase Gel®; Dermal Laboratories Ltd, Hitchin, UK or Diprobase Cream®) daily to the whole body (excluding scalp) for the first year, plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). Families were not blinded to allocation. Primary outcome was eczema diagnosis in the last year at age 2 years, as defined by the UK Working Party refinement of the Hanifin and Rajka diagnostic criteria, assessed by research nurses blinded to allocation. Secondary outcomes up to age 2 years included other eczema definitions, time to onset and severity of eczema, allergic rhinitis, wheezing, allergic sensitisation, food allergy, safety (skin infections and slippages) and cost-effectiveness. One thousand three hundred and ninety-four newborns were randomised between November 2014 and November 2016; 693 emollient and 701 control. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466/532), 82% (427/519) and 74% (375/506) at 3, 6 and 12 months. At 2 years, eczema was present in 139/598 (23%) in the emollient group and 150/612 (25%) in controls (adjusted relative risk 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.16; p = 0.61 and adjusted risk difference -1.2%, 95% confidence interval -5.9% to 3.6%). Other eczema definitions supported the primary analysis. Food allergy (milk, egg, peanut) was present in 41/547 (7.5%) in the emollient group versus 29/568 (5.1%) in controls (adjusted relative risk 1.47, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 2.33). Mean number of skin infections per child in the first year was 0.23 (standard deviation 0.68) in the emollient group versus 0.15 (standard deviation 0.46) in controls; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.09. The adjusted incremental cost per percentage decrease in risk of eczema at 2 years was £5337 (£7281 unadjusted). No difference between the groups in eczema or other atopic diseases was observed during follow-up to age 5 years via parental questionnaires. Two emollient types were used which could have had different effects. The median time for starting emollients was 11 days after birth. Some contamination occurred in the control group (< 20%). Participating families were unblinded and reported on some outcomes. We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children. Emollient use was associated with a higher risk of skin infections and a possible increase in food allergy. Emollient use is unlikely to be considered cost-effective in this context. To pool similar studies in an individual patient data meta-analysis. This trial is registered as ISRCTN21528841. This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/67/12) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 29. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Key Issues of Economic Evaluations for Health Technology Assessment in China: A Nationwide Expert Survey

ObjectivesHealth technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly crucial in medicine price negotiations in China, yet previous appraisals revealed national discrepancies on key economic evaluation issues: willingness-to-pay threshold, pricing models for multi-indication medicines, and comparator selection principles. This study aimed to collect expert opinions on these issues for future HTA evaluations. MethodsA nationwide anonymous web-based survey encompassing experts across academia, HTA, consultancy/contract research organization/industry, service provider, and payer. In 2023, a generic invitation containing a web link to the questionnaire was disseminated via WeChat using convenience and snowball sampling. Agreement rates for questionnaire views were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The relationship between participants’ responses and demographics was examined using appropriate logistic models. ResultsA total of 303 responses were received from experts in 34 cities. Key expert views include a suggested base willingness-to-pay threshold ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 times gross domestic product (52.1% agreement); elevated thresholds for childhood diseases, rare diseases, end-of-life diseases, and first-in-class medicines (>78.0% agreement); a single pricing model for multi-indication medicines (60.4% agreement); consideration of multiple medicines as comparators (79.9% agreement); and avoiding the use of centrally procured medicines as comparators for medicines with a time to market of less than 3 years (71.0% agreement). Participants who are service provider had lower odds of selecting higher thresholds (odds ratio 0.26; P < .01) than responders from consultancy/contract research organization/industry. ConclusionsExpert views indicate the need for substantial changes in China’s current HTA methods, highlighting the need for increased investment in HTA processes and expertise cultivation.

Health-Economic Evaluation of Psychological Interventions for Anxiety Prevention: A Systematic Review.

Although evidence supports the effectiveness of psychological interventions for prevention of anxiety, little is known about their cost-effectiveness. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of health-economic evaluations of psychological interventions for anxiety prevention. PubMed, PsycInfo, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EconLit, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Health Technology Assessment, and OpenGrey databases were searched electronically on December 23, 2022. Included studies focused on economic evaluations based on randomized controlled trials of psychological interventions to prevent anxiety. Study data were extracted, and the quality of the selected studies was assessed by using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria and the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. All included studies (N=5) had economic evaluations that were considered to be of good quality. In two studies, the interventions showed favorable cost-effectiveness compared with usual care groups. In one study, the intervention was not cost-effective. Findings from another study cast doubt on the cost-effectiveness of the intervention, and the cost-effectiveness of the intervention in the remaining study could not be established. Although the findings suggest some preliminary evidence of cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions for preventing anxiety, they were limited by the small number of included studies. Additional research on the cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions for anxiety in different countries and populations is required.

New IPECAD open-source model framework for the health technology assessment of early Alzheimer’s disease treatment: development and use cases

Reimbursement decisions for new Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments are informed by economic evaluations. An open-source model with intuitive structure for model cross-validation can support the transparency and credibility of such evaluations. We describe the new International Pharmaco-Economic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) open-source model framework (version 2) for the health-economic evaluation of early AD treatment and use it for cross-validation and addressing uncertainty. A cohort state-transition model using a categorized composite domain (cognition and function) was developed by replicating an existing reference model and testing it for internal validity. Then, features of existing Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) and Alzheimer's Disease Archimedes Condition-Event Simulator (AD-ACE) models assessing lecanemab treatment were implemented for model cross-validation. Additional uncertainty scenarios were performed on choice of efficacy outcome from trial, natural disease progression, treatment effect waning and stopping rules, and other methodological choices. The model is available open-source as R code, spreadsheet, and web-based version via https://github.com/ronhandels/IPECAD. In the IPECAD model incremental life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gains and cost savings were 21% to 31% smaller compared with the ICER model and 36% to 56% smaller compared with the AD-ACE model. IPECAD model results were particularly sensitive to assumptions on treatment effect waning and stopping rules and choice of efficacy outcome from trial. We demonstrated the ability of a new IPECAD open-source model framework for researchers and decision makers to cross-validate other (Health Technology Assessment submission) models and perform additional uncertainty analyses, setting an example for open science in AD decision modeling and supporting important reimbursement decisions.

Evidence Quality and Health Technology Assessment Outcomes in Reappraisals of Drugs for Rare Diseases in Germany

ObjectivesEvidence on reappraisals of health technologies in Germany is limited, and for rare disease treatments (RDTs), the Federal Joint Committee follows different processes (limited or regular), depending on whether an annual revenue threshold has been exceeded. Our objective is to better understand (re)appraisal processes and their outcomes for RDTs in Germany. MethodsWe analyzed appraisal documents of 55 RDT indications for which an initial appraisal and a reappraisal were conducted between 2011 and 2023. We extracted information for the type of evidence, the risk of bias, the availability of additional evidence, and the change in the maturity of survival data as proxies for evidence quality. Specifically, we reviewed the reasons for conducting reappraisals, examined how evidence quality and the clinical benefit rating (CBR) differed between initial appraisals and reappraisals, and explored the association between evidence quality and (1) the CBR and (2) the change in the CBR after reappraisal. ResultsMost reappraisals were conducted because the annual revenue threshold was exceeded or the initial appraisal resolution was time limited. Almost all initial appraisals used the limited process, whereas the majority of reappraisals used the regular process. The CBR increased in only 9 and decreased in 21 of 55 reappraisals. There was some evidence that reappraisals with an accepted randomized controlled trial were significantly more likely to achieve a higher CBR. ConclusionsFindings confirmed that reasons and processes for conducting reappraisals of RDTs in Germany differ. Further, high CBRs in reappraisals were not common and evidence quality in initial appraisals and reappraisals was limited.

Cancer-related Fatigue and the Additive Effect of Treatment in the Context of Lymphoma: An Analysis of the Lymphoma Coalition's 2022 Global Patient Survey.

CRF is a highly incident phenomenon in lymphoma that can be ascribed to a combination of causes. We have demonstrated substantial variability across various subtypes of lymphoma and have estimated that nearly half of the reported fatigue comes from treatment. Increased screening for and monitoring of fatigue will yield favorable health-related quality of life that will benefit health technology assessment activities and yield improved outcomes for patients.

Reducing self-harm in adolescents: the RISA-IPD individual patient data meta-analysis and systematic review.

Self-harm is common in adolescents and a major public health concern. Evidence for effective interventions is lacking. An individual patient data meta-analysis has the potential to provide more reliable estimates of the effects of therapeutic interventions for self-harm than conventional meta-analyses, to explore which treatments are best suited to certain groups. A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of therapeutic interventions to reduce repeat self-harm in adolescents who had a history of self-harm and presented to clinical services. Primary outcome was repetition of self-harm. The methods employed for searches, study screening and selection, and risk of bias assessment are described, with an overview of the outputs of the searching, selection and quality assessment processes. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidance is followed. We identified a total 39 eligible studies, from 10 countries, where we sought Individual Patient Data (IPD), of which the full sample of participants were eligible in 18 studies and a partial sample of participants were eligible in 21 studies. We obtained IPD from 26 studies of 3448 eligible participants. For our primary outcome, repetition of self-harm, only 6 studies were rated as low risk of bias with 10 rated as high risk (although 2 of these were for secondary outcomes only). Obtaining individual patient data for meta-analyses is possible but very time-consuming, despite clear guidance from funding bodies that researchers should share their data appropriately. More attention needs to be paid to seeking appropriate consent from study participants for (pseudo) anonymised data-sharing and institutions need to collaborate on agreeing template data-sharing agreements. Researchers and funders need to consider issues of research design more carefully. Our next step is to analyse all the data we have collected to see if it will tell us more about how we might prevent repetition of self-harm in young people. This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/117/11. A plain language summary of this research article is available on the NIHR Journals Library Website https://doi.org/10.3310/GTNT6331.

Health technology assessment for sexual reproductive health and rights benefits package design in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review of evidence-informed deliberative processes

Background Health technology assessment uses a multidisciplinary approach to support health benefits package design towards universal health coverage. The evidence-informed deliberative process framework has been used alongside Health technology assessment to enhance stakeholder participation and deliberations in health benefits package design. Applying the evidence-informed deliberative framework for Health assessment could support the morally diverse sexual reproductive health and rights (SRHR) benefits package design process. However, evidence on participation and deliberations for stakeholders in health technology assessment for SRHR benefits package design has not been curated in sub-Saharan Africa. This study synthesises literature to fill this gap. Methods This scoping review applies the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses extension for scoping reviews, and deductive analysis following the evidence-informed deliberative processes framework. The search strategy uses the Guttmacher–Lancet Commission-proposed comprehensive definition of SRHR and the World Health Organisation’s universal health coverage compendium of SRHR interventions to generate search terms. Six databases and biographical hand searches were used to identify studies in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1994. Results A total of 14 studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for yearly public budgets and explicit SRHR health technology assessment processes was not found. In 12 of the studies reviewed, new advisory committees were set up specifically for health technology assessment for SRHR priority-setting and benefits package design. In all decision-making processes reviewed, the committee member roles, participation and deliberations processes, and stakeholder veto powers were not clearly defined. Patients, the public, and producers of health technology were often excluded in the health technology assessment for the SRHR benefits package design. Most health technology assessment processes identified at least one decision-making criterion but failed to use this in their selection and appraisal stages for SRHR benefits design. The identification, selection, and scoping stages in health technology assessment for SRHR were non-existent in most studies. In 11 of the 14 processes of the included studies, stakeholders were dissatisfied with the health policy recommendation from the appraisal process in health technology assessment. Perceived benefits for evidence-informed deliberative processes included increased stakeholder engagement and fairness in decision-making. Conclusion To support the integration of diverse social values in health technology assessment for fairer SRHR benefits package design, evidence from this review suggests the need to institutionalise health technology assessment, establish prioritisation decision criteria, involve all relevant stakeholders, and standardise the process and assessment methodological approaches.

Toward a Useful and Cost-Effective Workup in Chronic Polyneuropathy: The EXPRESS Study Protocol.

Knowledge gaps exist about the usefulness and extent of blood tests and nerve conduction studies in the workup of polyneuropathy. We hypothesize that a limited workup improves costs spent on diagnostics without loss of diagnostic reliability or disadvantageous effect on treatment choice in many patients with a clinical diagnosis of chronic polyneuropathy. We aim to determine which investigations are necessary in the workup of patients with suspected chronic polyneuropathy clinically diagnosed by neurologists in an outpatient clinic and will perform an early health technology assessment. This is a prospective multicenter quality in healthcare evaluation. We compare two diagnostic strategies, both performed on all participants: the standard care by each patient's neurologist and the proposed (limited) workup by the study panel members consisting of neurologists with experience in neuromuscular diseases. The primary outcome is the effectiveness of a limited workup expressed as concordance between the patient's neurologist diagnosis and the panel diagnosis. This will be related to differences in costs and impact on treatment or patient management otherwise. Other outcomes are burden/gain for the patient in terms of number of investigations, time to diagnosis, hospital visits, sick leave, loss of productivity, expenses, experienced quality of care. This multicenter prospective observational study on quality in health care will provide improved evidence about the components of a cost-effective workup for patients with chronic polyneuropathy.

A health technology assessment of COVID-19 vaccination for Nigerian decision-makers: Identifying stakeholders and pathways to support evidence uptake

BackgroundNigeria commenced rollout of vaccination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2021 as part of the national public health response to the pandemic. Findings from appropriately contextualized cost–effectiveness analyses (CEA) as part of a wider process involving health technology assessment (HTA) approaches have been important in informing decision-making in this area. In this paper we outline the processes that were followed to identify COVID-19 vaccine stakeholders involved in the selection, approval, funding, procurement and rollout of vaccines in Nigeria, and describe the process routes we identified to support uptake of HTA-related information for evidence-informed policy in Nigeria.MethodsOur approach to engaging with policy-makers and other stakeholders as part of an HTA of COVID vaccination in Nigeria consisted of three steps, namely: (i) informal discussions with key stakeholders; (ii) stakeholder mapping, analysis and engagement; and (iii) communication and dissemination strategies for the HTA-relevant evidence produced. The analysis of the stakeholder mapping uses the power/interest grid framework.ResultsThe informal discussion with key stakeholders generated six initial policy questions. Further discussions with policy-makers yielded three suitable policy questions for analysis: which COVID-19 vaccines should be bought; what is the optimal mode of delivery of these vaccines; and what are the cost and cost–effectiveness of vaccinating people highlighted in Nigeria’s phase 2 vaccine rollout prioritized by the government, especially the inclusion of those aged between 18 and 49 years. The stakeholder mapping exercise highlighted the range of organizations and groups within Nigeria that could use the information from this HTA to guide decision-making. These stakeholders included both public/government, private and international organizations The dissemination plan developed included disseminating the full HTA results to key stakeholders; production of policy briefs; and presentation at different national and international conferences and peer-reviewed publications.ConclusionsHTA processes that involve stakeholder engagement will help ensure important policy questions are taken into account when designing any HTA including any underpinning evidence generation. Further guidance about stakeholder engagement throughout HTA is required, especially for those with low interest in vaccine procurement and use.

Interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: umbrella review of systematic reviews.

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally. The aim of this overview of systematic reviews was to compare the effectiveness of different pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. A structured search of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects archive was conducted to find systematic reviews that reported the effect of various pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from inception to March 2021. References of included studies were also checked. The included systematic reviews' methodological quality was assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 instrument (range, 0-16). The outcomes of each included review's meta-analysis were extracted and described narratively. This study analysed 95 systematic reviews, including 41 on non-pharmacological interventions and 54 on pharmacological interventions for cardiovascular health. The majority of the reviews focused on lipid-lowering interventions (n = 25) and antiplatelet medications (n = 21), followed by nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, physical activity, health promotion and other interventions. Only 1 of the 10 reviews addressing cardiovascular mortality showed a potential benefit, while the others found no effect. Antiplatelets were found to have a beneficial effect on all-cause mortality in 2 out of 12 meta-analyses and on major cardiovascular disease events in 8 out of 17 reviews. Lipid-lowering interventions showed beneficial effects on cardiovascular disease mortality, all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in varying numbers of the reviews. Glucose-lowering medications demonstrated significant benefits for major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease events and mortality. However, the combination of dietary interventions, physical activities, nutritional supplements and polypills showed little or no significant benefit for major cardiovascular outcomes or mortality. More research is needed to determine whether the effect of treatment varies depending on population characteristics. The findings of this review should be interpreted with caution because the majority of studies of non-pharmacological interventions compare primary prevention with usual care, which may include recommended pharmacological treatment in higher-risk patients (e.g. statins and/or antihypertensive medications, etc.). In addition, randomised controlled trial evidence may be better suited to the study of pharmacological interventions than dietary and lifestyle interventions. This umbrella review captured the variability in different interventions on randomised controlled trial evidence on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and identified areas that may benefit from further research. Specifically, this review focused on randomised controlled trial evidence on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Researchers may use these findings as a resource to direct new intervention studies and network meta-analyses to compare the efficacy of various interventions based on these findings. This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme as award number 17/148/05.

Stopping anticoagulation for isolated or incidental pulmonary embolism: the STOPAPE RCT protocol.

Is withholding anticoagulation for patients with isolated or incidental subsegmental pulmonary embolism clinically and cost-effective compared with full anticoagulation for 3 months? There has been an increase in the diagnosis of subsegmental pulmonary embolism since the advent of computed tomography pulmonary angiogram to investigate patients with suspected pulmonary embolism. Subsegmental pulmonary embolism is not often detectable with older nuclear medicine-based diagnostic imaging for ventilation/perfusion mismatch. The case fatality of pulmonary embolism has reduced as subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnoses from computed tomography pulmonary angiogram have increased. There is growing equipoise about the optimal treatment for patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism, given that full anticoagulation has significant risks of bleeding and subsegmental pulmonary embolism was not often diagnosed previously with ventilation/perfusion scanning and therefore most likely left predominantly untreated prior to the introduction of computed tomography pulmonary angiogram scanning. Determine whether withholding anticoagulation for isolated or incidental subsegmental pulmonary embolism (i.e. subsegmental pulmonary embolism with no coexisting deep-vein thrombosis) reduces the harms of recurrent thromboembolism and major bleeding compared with 3 months of full anticoagulation at 3, 6 and 12 months. Determine the rate of complications of anticoagulation therapy (predominantly bleeding) in patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism. Determine whether not treating isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism is acceptable to clinicians and patients. Determine the reclassification rate of subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnoses made by general reporting radiologists when reviewed by specialist respiratory radiologists and develop a set of rules to improve general radiologists' diagnoses of subsegmental pulmonary embolism. Assess cost-effectiveness of not treating patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism with anticoagulation, taking a health service perspective. Prospective individually randomised open controlled trial with blinded end-point committee assessment for outcomes, powered for non-inferiority for recurrent venous thromboembolism and for superiority for bleeding events. An internal pilot phase is included for feasibility and acceptability of no anticoagulation. We planned to recruit 1466 patients from at least 50 acute hospital sites. Allowing for a dropout rate of 15%, this would have given us 90% power to detect a reduction in major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding from 7.3% in the anticoagulation arm to 3% in the intervention arm. We were powered to determine that a strategy of no anticoagulation was non-inferior to anticoagulation with an upper margin of a 2.3% increase in recurrent venous thromboembolism from an expected rate of 2% in those who receive full anticoagulation. We also planned to undertake a study comparing acute reporting radiologists' diagnoses of subsegmental pulmonary embolism from all computed tomography pulmonary angiograms with specialist respiratory radiologists. This would have allowed us to determine safety in the pilot study (i.e. patients with pulmonary embolism that was in fact larger than subsegmental would have been identified) and develop guidance for subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnosis for general radiologists. Patients with lived experience of thrombosis contributed to all aspects of the trial design and were part of the Trial Management Group. The STOPAPE trial was stopped prematurely due to a low recruitment rate in the wake of the COVID pandemic and prioritisation of recovery of the National Institute for Health and Care Research research portfolio. There are no outcome data available for this trial. Separate NIHR Library publications will detail the linked qualitative study examining the views of patients and clinicians around withholding anticoagulation for isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism as well as presenting all collected data of recruited patients. This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number NIHR128073. A plain language summary of this research article is available on the NIHR Journals Library Website https://doi.org/10.3310/HRCW7937.

Transferability of new methods for health technology assessment in the field of diabetes between early and late adopters’ countries

This study aimed to investigate the transferability of novel artificial intelligence (AI) methods for prediction modelling of diabetes based on real-world data (RWD) between early and late adopters of emerging health technologies from the perspective of developers and health technology assessment (HTA) experts. A two-step approach was used. Developers of the new AI methods within HTx consortium completed a survey about the benefits, usability, barriers associated with implementing the new prediction models in routine HTA practices. Then, HTA experts from Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries participated in a focus group discussion. Developers generally expressed optimism regarding the transferability of the methods, while acknowledging potential disparities across CEE countries. Key benefits that were identified included enhanced understanding of diabetes, improved cost-effectiveness modelling, and refined patient stratification, all of which could contribute to clinical and reimbursement decisions across various jurisdictions. The focus group underscored the value of real-world data for diabetes prediction modelling, serving as a beneficial resource for both clinicians and HTA agencies. However, there was a recognized need to clarify the processes of integrating randomized clinical trial data with real-world data. For the other stakeholders, the advancement of the methodology will improve the diagnosis and therapy during the process of decision making. Experts from CEE countries recognized the potential of artificial intelligence-based methods employing real-world data for diabetes modelling. These methods are seen as instrumental in elucidating the heterogeneous nature of the disease, supporting clinician decision-making and holding promises for HTA purposes.

A Systematic Review of Modeling Approaches to Evaluate Treatments for Relapsed Refractory Multiple Myeloma: Critical Review and Considerations for Future Health Economic Models.

Multiple myeloma is a rare incurable hematological cancer in which most patients relapse or become refractory to treatment. This systematic literature review aimed to critically review the existing economic models used in economic evaluations of systemic treatments for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and to summarize how the models addressed differences in the line of therapy and exposure to prior treatment. Following a pre-approved protocol, literature searches were conducted on 17 February, 2023, in relevant databases for models published since 2014. Additionally, key health technology assessment agency websites were manually searched for models published as part of submission dossiers since 2018. Reported information related to model conceptualization, structure, uncertainty, validation, and transparency were extracted into a pre-defined extraction sheet. In total, 49 models assessing a wide range of interventions across multiple lines of therapy were included. Only five models specific to heavily pre-treated patients and/or those who were refractory to multiple treatment classes were identified. Most models followed a conventional simple methodology, such as partitioned survival (n = 28) or Markov models (n = 9). All included models evaluated specific interventions rather than the whole treatment sequence. Where subsequent therapies were included in the model, these were generally only considered from a cost and resource use perspective. The models generally used overall and progression-free survival as model inputs, although data were often immature. Sensitivity analyses were frequently reported (n = 41) whereas validation was only considered in less than half (n = 19) of the models. Published economic models in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma rarely followed an individual patient approach, mainly owing to the higher need for complex data assumptions compared with simpler modeling approaches. As many patients experience disease progression on multiple treatment lines, there is a growing need for modeling complex treatment strategies, leading to more sophisticated approaches in the future. Maintaining transparency, high reporting standards, and thorough analyses of uncertainty are crucial to support these advancements.

Considering planetary health in health guidelines and health technology assessments: a scoping review protocol

BackgroundThis protocol outlines a scoping review with the objective of identifying and exploring planetary health considerations within existing health guidelines and health technology assessments (HTA). The insights gained from this review will serve as a basis for shaping future Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) guidance on planetary health.MethodsWe will adhere to the JBI methodology for scoping reviews. We will conduct a comprehensive search and screening of results in all languages across various databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Global Health, Health Systems Evidence, Greenfile, and Environmental Issues. Additionally, we will supplement this search with resources such as the GIN library, BIGG database, Epistemonikos, GRADE guidelines repository, GRADEpro Guideline Development Tool Database, MAGICapp, NICE website, WHO websites, and a manual exploration of unpublished relevant documents using Google incognito mode. Two independent reviewers will screen and assess the full texts of identified documents according to the eligibility criteria. The following information from each full text will be extracted: document title; first author’s name; publication year; language; document type; document as a guideline or HTA; the topic/discipline; document purpose/study objective; developing/sponsoring organization; the country in which the study/guideline/HTA report was conducted; definition of planetary health or related concept provided; types of planetary health experts engaged; study methods; suggested methods to assess planetary health; use of secondary data on planetary health outcomes; description for use of life cycle assessment; description for assessing the quality of life cycle; population/intended audience; interventions; category; applicable planetary health boundaries; consideration of social justice/global equity; phase of intervention in life cycle related to planetary health addressed; the measure of planetary health impact; impact on biodiversity/land use; one health/animal welfare mention; funding; and conflict of interest. Data analysis will involve a combination of descriptive statistics and directed content analysis, with results presented in a narrative format and displayed in tables and graphs.DiscussionThe final review results will be submitted to open-access peer-reviewed journals for publication when they become available. The research findings will also be disseminated at relevant planetary health conferences and workshops.Systematic review registrationOpen Science Framework (https://osf.io/3jmsa).

The Role of Medical Societies and the Relevance of Clinical Perspective in the Evolving EU HTA Process: Insights Generated at the 2023 Fall Convention and Survey of the European Access Academy.

This work aimed to determine the role and action points for the involvement of medical societies in the European Health Technology Assessment (EU HTA) Methods: An online pre-convention survey was developed addressing four areas related to the EU HTA: (i) medical societies' role; (ii) role of clinical guidelines; (iii) interface with the European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS); and (iv) approaching 'best-available evidence' (BAE). A descriptive analysis of questionnaire outcomes was conducted to inform the European Access Academy (EAA) Fall Convention 2023. Within the working groups (WGs), action points were identified and prioritised. A total of 57 experts from 15 countries responded to the survey. The WGs were attended by (i) 11, (ii) 10, (iii) 12, and (iv) 12 experts, respectively, representing a variety of national backgrounds and stakeholder profiles. The most relevant action points identified were as follows: (i) incorporation of clinical context into population, intervention, comparator, outcomes (PICO) schemes, (ii) timely provision of up-to-date therapeutic guidelines, (iii) ensuring the inclusion of MCBS insights into the EU HTA process, and (iv) considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as the gold standard and leveraging regulatory insights if development programs only include single-arm trials. The involvement of medical societies is a critical success factor for the EU HTA. The identified key action points foster the involvement of patient associations and medical societies.

Building an effective medicines optimisation model: a health system approach.

This commentary narrates on the building of an effective and innovative medicines optimisation model. It discusses the essential features, emphasizes the need, and considers the strong health and pharmacy system as a prerequisite before such a model could be built. The paper argues that it is important to strengthen the health system before the elements of pharmaceutical care and medicine optimisation can take shape. It discusses the discourse and interplay between medicine use and medicine access research. The other important elements to include are the "selection of medicines by health technology assessment", "economic evaluation of pharmacy services", "pharmacists' remuneration by the government", "Health system strengthening status", "quality use of generic medicines programmes", "rationale prescribing", "access to medicines and medicines pricing", "medicines advertising" and the "state of pharmacy practice and the development of the pharmacist's role". A set of different high-, middle- and low-income countries are used to provide examples of the status of the health system and the subsequent development of pharmacy practice and medicines optimisation. The countries include the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Türkiye, Malaysia, India, and Pakistan.

Identification of Ethical Issues and Practice Recommendations Regarding the Use of Robotic Coaching Solutions for Older Adults: Narrative Review.

Technological advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, cognitive algorithms, and internet-based coaches have contributed to the development of devices capable of responding to some of the challenges resulting from demographic aging. Numerous studies have explored the use of robotic coaching solutions (RCSs) for supporting healthy behaviors in older adults and have shown their benefits regarding the quality of life and functional independence of older adults at home. However, the use of RCSs by individuals who are potentially vulnerable raises many ethical questions. Establishing an ethical framework to guide the development, use, and evaluation practices regarding RCSs for older adults seems highly pertinent. The objective of this paper was to highlight the ethical issues related to the use of RCSs for health care purposes among older adults and draft recommendations for researchers and health care professionals interested in using RCSs for older adults. We conducted a narrative review of the literature to identify publications including an analysis of the ethical dimension and recommendations regarding the use of RCSs for older adults. We used a qualitative analysis methodology inspired by a Health Technology Assessment model. We included all article types such as theoretical papers, research studies, and reviews dealing with ethical issues or recommendations for the implementation of these RCSs in a general population, particularly among older adults, in the health care sector and published after 2011 in either English or French. The review was performed between August and December 2021 using the PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, IEEE Explore, SpringerLink, and PsycINFO databases. Selected publications were analyzed using the European Network of Health Technology Assessment Core Model (version 3.0) around 5 ethical topics: benefit-harm balance, autonomy, privacy, justice and equity, and legislation. In the 25 publications analyzed, the most cited ethical concerns were the risk of accidents, lack of reliability, loss of control, risk of deception, risk of social isolation, data confidentiality, and liability in case of safety problems. Recommendations included collecting the opinion of target users, collecting their consent, and training professionals in the use of RCSs. Proper data management, anonymization, and encryption appeared to be essential to protect RCS users' personal data. Our analysis supports the interest in using RCSs for older adults because of their potential contribution to individuals' quality of life and well-being. This analysis highlights many ethical issues linked to the use of RCSs for health-related goals. Future studies should consider the organizational consequences of the implementation of RCSs and the influence of cultural and socioeconomic specificities of the context of experimentation. We suggest implementing a scalable ethical and regulatory framework to accompany the development and implementation of RCSs for various aspects related to the technology, individual, or legal aspects.