Health Care Expenditures Research Articles

Adverse Events Associated with Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-related adverse events (AEs) are associated with morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenditure. We aimed to assess incidences and comparisons of ERCP AEs. We included studies performed after 2000 reporting on ERCP AEs from database inception through March 12, 2024. Outcomes included pancreatitis, bleeding, cholangitis, cholecystitis, perforation, and death. DerSimonian and Laird random effects meta-analyses were performed to calculate incidences of AEs. Subgroup and pairwise meta-analyses were performed. Meta-regression was performed on median recruitment year to assess temporal trends in pancreatitis incidence. A total of 380 studies were included. The incidence of death attributable to ERCP was 0.2% (95% confidence intervals, CI, 0.1-0.3%, I2 44%, n=47,258) in all-comers. The overall incidence of pancreatitis was 4.6% (95% CI 4.0-5.1%, I2 96%, n=293,378) among all-comers and 6.5% (95% CI 5.9-7.1%, I2 89%, n=88,809) among first-time patients. Pancreatitis incidence remained stable between 2000-2023 (average annual percent change 0.06, 95%CI -0.27 to 0.39). The overall incidences of the following AEs for all-comers were: bleeding (1.5%, 95% CI 1.2-1.7%, I2 93%, n=229,655), cholangitis (2.5%, 95%CI 1.9-3.3%, I2 96%, n=121,619), cholecystitis (0.8%, 95%CI 0.5-1.2%, I2 39%, n=7,799), and perforation (0.5%, 95%CI 0.4-0.6%, I2 90%, n=306,378). ERCP-associated AEs remain common. Incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis remained static despite improvements in techniques, prevention, and recognition. These results are important to patients, endoscopists, and policy makers to inform consent and to encourage implementation of available risk mitigation strategies.

ICU follow-up services and their impact on post-intensive care syndrome: a scoping review protocol

IntroductionPost-intensive care syndrome (PICS) seriously affects the quality of life of intensive care unit (ICU) survivors, their ability to return to work and society and the quality of life of...

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF HEALTH POLICIES ON OUT-OF-POCKET HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE IN USA: THE PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON DEVELOPING IMPROVED HEALTH POLICIES IN THE UNITED STATES

This study examines the impact of U.S. health policies on out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures, revealing that certain policies are notably more effective in reducing costs for individuals. The regression model explains 99.5% of the variation in out-of-pocket expenses (R² = 0.995). Key findings show the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as the most impactful, reducing costs by $0.43 per unit (β = -0.426, p = 0.007), followed by COVID-19 Response and Health Policy Changes (CRHPC), which reduces costs by $0.16 (β = -0.162, p = 0.019). Government Expenditure on Health, however, has a positive impact, increasing out-of-pocket spending by $0.69 per dollar spent (β = 0.695, p = 0.001), suggesting inefficiencies. Inflation also drives costs up, with each 1% increase resulting in an additional $0.02 out-of-pocket (β = 0.017, p = 0.032). The findings recommend focusing on high-impact policies like the IRA and CRHPC, while reevaluating lower-impact programs to optimize resource allocation and control healthcare inflation.

Targeting Gut microbiota as a therapeutic target in T2DM: a review of Multi-target interactions of probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, and synbiotics with the Intestinal Barrier

The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) imposes a substantial burden on public health and healthcare expenditures, thereby driving the pursuit of cost-effective preventive and therapeutic strategies. Emerging evidence suggests a potential association between dysbiosis of gut microbiota and its metabolites with T2DM, indicating that targeted interventions aimed at modulating gut microbiota may represent a promising therapeutic approach for the management of T2DM. In this review, we concentrated on the multifaceted interactions between the gut microbiota and the intestinal barrier in the context of T2DM. We systematically summarized that the imbalance of beneficial gut microbiota and its metabolites may constitute a viable therapeutic approach for the management of T2DM. Meanwhile, the mechanisms by which gut microbiota interventions, such as probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, and synbiotics, synergistically improve insulin resistance in T2DM are summarized. These mechanisms include the restoration of gut microbiota structure, upregulation of intestinal epithelial cell proliferation and differentiation, enhancement of tight junction protein expression, promotion of mucin secretion by goblet cells, and the immunosuppressive functions of regulatory T cells (Treg) and M2 macrophages. Collectively, these actions contribute to the amelioration of the body's metabolic inflammatory status. Our objective is to furnish evidence that supports the clinical application of probiotics, prebiotics, and postbiotics in the management of T2DM.

Primary care seeking among adults with chronic neck and low back pain in Norway: A prospective study from the HUNT study linked to Norwegian primary healthcare registry.

To describe the frequency of primary care seeking for neck or back-related conditions among people with chronic neck and low back pain and to develop prediction models of primary care seeking and frequent visits. We included participants of the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4, 2017-19) in Norway who self-reported chronic neck and/or low back pain in the preceding year, and extracted data of primary care visits from the Norwegian primary healthcare registry. We investigated a total of 23 potential predictors and used multivariable logistic regression models to predict primary care seeking for neck or back-related conditions and frequent visits by healthcare provider (i.e., the highest quartile of number of visits). Among the 15,352 HUNT4 participants with chronic neck and/or low back pain, 6231 participants (40.6%) sought primary care for neck or back-related conditions (median = 5 visits, IQR 2-15) within 2 years after the study. Participants who consulted physical therapists sought care the most frequently (median = 10 visits, IQR 3-26). Discrimination of the best-fit prediction model of primary care seeking and frequent visits by healthcare provider, assessed by C-statistic, ranged from 0.66-0.76. Participants who made frequent primary care visits in the preceding year were highly likely to continue frequent care seeking in the following 2 years. Around 40% of people seek primary care for chronic neck and low back pain, and frequent care seeking may continue for years. Future studies should investigate strategies to reduce recurrent primary care visits, especially seeking physical therapist care, and promote self-management of chronic pain. People with chronic neck and low back pain who seek physical therapist care had the highest frequency of care seeking, underscoring the significant burden on healthcare systems. The high frequency of visits and associated healthcare expenditures highlight the critical need for effective and valuable primary care for chronic pain management. To mitigate recurrent visits and reduce costs, it is essential to provide patients with evidence-based treatments and self-management interventions.

Open versus minimally invasive hepatic and pancreatic surgery: 1-year costs, healthcare utilization and days of work lost

IntroductionUtilization of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) has become increasingly popular due to its potential benefits such as earlier recovery and reduced morbidity. We sought to characterize differences in 1-year healthcare costs and missed workdays among patients undergoing MIS and open surgery for a hepatic or pancreatic indication. MethodsData on patients who underwent hepatic and pancreatic resection were obtained from the IBM Marketscan database. Generalized linear models were utilized to compare healthcare costs and missed workdays among patients undergoing MIS versus open surgery. ResultsAmong 8705 patients, 85.0 % (n = 7399) and 15.0 % (n = 1306) patients underwent an open or MIS HP procedure, respectively. In the unmatched cohort, patients who underwent MIS were more likely to be female (62.7 % vs. 54.6 %) and were less likely to have a Charlson Comorbidity Index score >2 (34.5 % vs. 49.6 %) (both p < 0.05). After entropy balancing, multivariable analysis revealed that MIS was associated with lower 1-year post discharge expenditures (mean difference -$9,739, 95%CI-$12,893, -$6585) and fewer missed workdays at 1-year post-discharge (IRR 0.84, 95%CI 0.81–0.87) (all p < 0.001). DiscussionAt index hospitalization and 1-year post-discharge, an HP MIS approach was associated with lower healthcare expenditures versus open surgery for hepatic and pancreatic resection, as well as fewer missed workdays.

Effets du programme d'aide au retour à domicile (PRADO-IC) sur le parcours de soins à un an d'une population de patients insuffisants cardiaques

IntroductionCongestive heart failure (HF) is associated with prolonged and recurrent hospitalizations; the prognosis remains poor a better follow up might be beneficial. PRADO-IC program is provided in order to improve the transition of care. Aim of the studyTo evaluate PRADO-IC program in term of healthcare consumption and prognosis in a cohort of patients hospitalized for decompensated HF, using the insight of the national data base SNDS (Système National de Données de Santé). MethodsFrom September 2016 to September 2018, all patients hospitalized for heart failure at Saint-Joseph Hospital were included in an observational study. The inclusion in the PRADO-IC program was at physician's discretion. Two groups were compared according to the inclusion in PRADO-IC (P group) or not (control group (C)). The primary endpoints were the comparison of one-year mortality and heart failure readmission rate between the two groups. The secondary end points were time to the first contact with a general practitioner (GP), a cardiologist, CHF drugs prescription, and others follow up data. ResultsSix hundred and fifteen patients were included, 254 in the P group and 361 in the C group. Patients in the P cohort presented more frequently severity criteria (age, weight, BNP level, arrhythmia, anemia, renal failure). Mortality at one year (n = 47; 18.5% P group vs. n = 65; 16.2% C group, p = 0.87) did not differ in both groups. There was no significant difference in one-year re-hospitalization rate for HF (n = 93, 36.6% in P group vs. n = 133, 26.8% in C group, p = 0.95). Time to the first contact with the GP was shorter in P group (8.00 vs. 18.50 days, p < 0.0001). Time to first hospitalization (69.0 vs. 37.0 days, p = 0.028) and the length of hospitalization (6.0 vs. 4.0 days, p = 0.045) were longer in P group. There was no difference for HF drugs prescription rate between the two groups. ConclusionOur study shows that the PRADO-IC program concerned more severe patients. Despite this, the one-year mortality and the HF readmission rates are similar between the two groups. The follow up is improved in P group.

The Effect of Application-Based Exergames on Cognitive Function in Hemodialysis Patients

Aims: Hemodialysis (HD) patients may disrupt physical and cognitive capabilities, affecting older mobility, independence, psychological well-being, and health care expenditures. Home-based exergame training overcomes accessibility issues. Methods: This research examined how mobile app exergames affected cognitive performance in hemodialysis patients. This research used a repeated measurement-quasi-experiment two-group pretest-posttest design in a West Java. The intervention group trained three times a week for 30-40 minutes for two months, totaling 24 sessions (8 weeks). In the control group, participants were told to live normally. Results: Inlcusion criteria was performing HD at least twice a week, age &gt; 65, living independently, self-reported health, ability to stand for 10 minutes without help, and access to a TV with HDMI connection. The Trail Making Test (TMT) measured psychomotor speed and executive function. ANCOVA was used to compare scores before and after the intervention in both groups. The repeated ANOVA test revealed that the trial making test A (TMT A) decreased significantly in the intervention group after one month intervention (T2) (from 79.77 ± 7.23 at baseline to 40.87 ± 5.33 at follow up), with the effect size was 0.41, indicating moderate effect size. The trial making test B (TMT B) decreased significantly in the intervention group after one month intervention (T2) (from 77.6 ± 24.2 at baseline to 70.32 ± 23.3 at follow up), with the effect size was 0.45, indicating moderate effect size. However, there was not significant change of Trial making Test A and B from baseline to follow up time in the control group. Conclusions: Findings of this study could be one of the new solutions to help patients undergoing hemodialysis improve their cognitive function. Exergame training may be done at home, which helps to overcome accessibility constraints.

Economic Burden of Late-Stage Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Bulgaria, Germany, and the US

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a highly prevalent and debilitating retinal condition that affects more than 200 million people globally, with the severe late-stage forms-neovascular AMD (nAMD) and geographic atrophy (GA)-affecting more than 11 million people globally. However, much is unknown about the economic burden of the disease. To estimate the economic burden associated with late-stage AMD in Bulgaria, Germany, and the US at the societal level. This study used the prevalence approach cost-of-illness economic modeling to estimate costs attributable to late-stage AMD. Data on health care resource utilization, well-being, and productivity were obtained via primary data collection. Additional data required for the model were sourced from available published literature. Data were collected from January 2021 to March 2022, and analyzed from April to July 2022. Participants older than 50 years residing in Bulgaria, Germany, and the US who were diagnosed with late-stage AMD (nAMD or any form of GA) in 1 or both eyes and caregivers who care for people diagnosed with late-stage AMD were recruited through ophthalmological clinics in Bulgaria and Germany and via online newsletters and social media in the US. The main outcomes were direct medical costs (disease-related health care expenditures), indirect medical costs (care support and assistive technology), well-being cost (loss of well-being), and productivity cost (loss in productivity due to the diseases for both patient and caregivers). Of the 128 individuals with late-stage AMD in this study, 80 (62%) were female, and 120 (94%) were aged 60 years or older. Of the 61 caregivers, 43 (70%) were female and 55 (91%) were aged 45 years or older. Estimated per-annum total costs attributable to late-stage AMD were €449.5 million ($512.5 million) in Bulgaria, €7.6 billion ($8.6 billion) in Germany, and €43.2 billion ($49.4 billion) in the US. Across all countries, 10% to 13% of the total cost incurred was attributed to direct medical costs. In Germany and Bulgaria, the biggest contributor to the total economic burden was reduced well-being (67% and 76%, respectively), whereas in the US, loss of productivity (42%) was the biggest contributor. The findings of this study indicate a substantial burden of late-stage AMD on patients and caregivers in the US, Germany, and Bulgaria. Across the 3 countries, reduced well-being and loss of productivity were relatively large contributors to the total economic burden. Implementing measures to reduce AMD incidence, delay disease progression, and alleviate humanistic burden may help reduce the economic burden of late-stage AMD.

Evaluating the budget impact of Empagliflozin in managing heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: Proposing strategic policies for Malaysian public healthcare.

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors such as Empagliflozin, are increasingly recommended as part of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in many developed nations. This recommendation is based on robust clinical evidence showing that adding Empagliflozin to GDMT improves heart failure symptoms, clinical outcomes, functional status, and overall quality of life. In Malaysia, where healthcare is predominantly public and heavily subsidized, the introduction of new treatments can significantly impact costs, requiring detailed economic assessments. This study evaluates the budget impact of incorporating Empagliflozin into GDMT for HFrEF from the perspective of the public healthcare system. A five-year budget impact model was developed, integrating local data such as population, drug use, costs, clinical outcomes, and healthcare expenses. In the current scenario (GDMT alone), the projected five-year expenditure is MYR 6.12 billion (USD 3.92 billion). With Empagliflozin, the total cost rises by 0.71% to MYR 6.16 billion (USD 3.95 billion), driven by drug acquisition costs of MYR 160.12 million (USD 102.64 million) and adverse event costs of MYR 211,543 (USD 135,604). However, these costs are offset by savings from reduced HF hospitalizations, fewer cardiovascular deaths, and improved renal outcomes. Sensitivity analysis identified hospitalization costs, the price of Empagliflozin, and cardiovascular deaths in diabetic patients as key factors influencing the budget impact. Policymakers can improve the affordability of Empagliflozin through strategies like price negotiations, cost-sharing, and focusing on high-risk groups to optimize healthcare expenditure while ensuring effective treatment access.

The economic burden of schizophrenia spectrum disorders: clinical and functional correlates and predictors of direct costs. A retrospective longitudinal study

The economic burden of schizophrenia amounts for 1.5-3 % of healthcare expenses in developed countries, and ∼50 % derives from direct costs: 81 % of these are due to hospitalization, residential facilities and semi-residential facilities. Therefore, a better characterization of variables that influence direct costs represents a relevant issue.A total of 276 individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders receiving treatment from the Community Mental Health Centers of Brescia (Italy) were included in the study: for each participant socio-demographic, clinical and functional characteristics were assessed, and data related to the use of services in 2022 (then converted to costs) were collected. Regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of costs.A direct healthcare expenditure of 16477.23 (±32856.47) € per patient per year was identified. The main cost predictor was the PSP total score (p=0.005), followed by age of onset (p=0.020), and PANSS total score (p=0.033). Including PANSS sub-scales scores and PSP single items as potential predictors, the main predictor was the “socially useful activities” PSP item (p=0.002), followed by age of onset (p=0.011), and PANSS negative scale score (p=0.027).Our findings underline the need to implement rehabilitative intervention focused on the improvement of psychosocial functioning and negative symptoms, also to reduce healthcare expenses.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Human Rabies and Identification of Predominant Risk Factors in China from 2004 to 2020.

Human rabies is a prevalent issue in China, posing a significant public health concern in the country. This study fitted the Bayesian model of separable in spatial and temporal variation and inseparable spatiotemporal variation in disease risk respectively based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of human rabies across 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020. It also investigated the influence of natural and socio-environmental factors on the incidence of the disease. Within the study period, a total of 26,807 cases of human rabies were reported, with the highest risk of incidence occurring in 2007, followed by a steady annual decline to the lowest risk in 2020. Guangxi Province exhibited the highest risk, while Jilin Province had the lowest, with the southern, central, and eastern regions reporting higher risks than the northern and western areas. By 2020, most provinces such as Guangxi and Guizhou had significantly reduced their relative risk (RR) of human rabies from historical highs. However, some provinces like Hunan, Henan, and Jiangsu experienced an increase in RR compared to previous years. As the annual average temperature increases, the risk of human rabies incidence in China correspondingly rises. Conversely, with increases in the annual average daily sunshine duration, per capita disposable income of urban residents, and local government healthcare expenditures, the risk of human rabies incidence declines. We conclude that the risk of human rabies in China initially increased and then decreased annually from 2004 to 2020. Future efforts should continuously increase financial investments in rabies prevention and control, focusing particularly on Hunan, Henan, Jiangsu, and provinces characterized by higher temperatures, shorter sunshine durations, and lower economic levels.

Patient-initiated follow-up supported by asynchronous telemedicine versus usual care in spondyloarthritis (TeleSpA-study): a randomised controlled trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness.

With rising health-care expenditures and workforce shortages, sustainable alternatives to traditional outpatient follow-up strategies are required to optimise care efficiency. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness and clinical effectiveness of patient-initiated follow-up (PIFU) supported by asynchronous telemedicine for patients with spondyloarthritis compared with usual care in daily practice. TeleSpA was a multicentre, pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial. Patients with spondyloarthritis and stable disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine group or usual care group. All patients received a scheduled outpatient visit at baseline and after 1 year. Patients were monitored remotely at 6 months (PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine) or at the discretion of the treating rheumatologist (usual care). The primary outcome was the number of rheumatology visits within a 1-year period. A trial-based 1-year health-economic evaluation from a Dutch health-care perspective (only including health-care costs) and societal perspective (also including travel costs and work productivity losses), per the Dutch guidelines was used to estimate cost-effectiveness. The safety analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population and was based on spontaneous reports of adverse events and serious adverse events or as observed by the research team. The primary analysis was in the intention-to-treat population. Individuals with relevant lived experience were involved in the study design. This trial was registered with the Dutch National Trial Register (NL71041.068.19) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04673825) and is completed. Between Dec 2, 2020, and June 20, 2022, 200 patients were randomly assigned to PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine (n=100) or usual care (n=100). 79 (40%) of 200 participants were women, 121 (60%) were men, and the mean age was 55·0 years (SD 11·9). After 1 year, the mean number of rheumatology visits was 1·9 (SD 1·5) for the PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine group and 2·6 (1·3) in the usual care group (mean difference -0·7 [95% CI -1·0 to -0·3]; 25·4% reduction; p<0·0001). PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine was cost-effective from a health-care perspective, saving health-care costs (-€180 [95% CI -921 to 560]) without a loss in quality-adjusted life-years (0·004 [95 % CI -0·022 to 0·030]). Seven non-trial-related adverse events occurred in the PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine group and eight in usual care group (including one death). PIFU and asynchronous telemedicine resulted in significant and clinically meaningful reductions in rheumatology visits. This was not at the expense of health outcomes and saved health-care costs. Dutch Arthritis Society.

Cost minimization analysis of chronic kidney disease management: Evaluating economic strategies for early intervention and treatment optimization

Chronic kidney disease is a common global health condition characterized by progressive loss of kidney function and significant cost burden on the healthcare system worldwide. The disease often coexists with conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, further complicates its management and increasing associated costs. Effective economic management, particularly in the early stages of CKD, is crucial for reducing long-term healthcare expenses and improving patient outcomes. This review examines the utility of cost minimization analysis (CMA) as a strategic tool for evaluating economic options in CKD management. CMA is an economic evaluation method that compares the costs of different therapeutic interventions that have demonstrated equivalent clinical effectiveness, thereby aiding healthcare providers and policymakers in identifying the most cost-efficient options to optimize resource utilization. This review highlights the economic impact of CKD, focusing on the increasing costs linked to advanced disease management and the essential role of early diagnosis and intervention in reducing these costs and explores various cost-effective strategies for CKD management, including pharmacological treatments, lifestyle modifications, and patient education, to identify approaches that are both clinically and economically advantageous. Additionally, the broader implications of cost minimization for healthcare policy, clinical decision-making, and resource allocation are discussed for their significance in a resource-limited healthcare setting. Evidence indicates that prioritizing cost-effective CKD management through early intervention and preventive care can significantly lower healthcare expenditures, slow the disease progression, and enhance patient’s quality of life. By adopting such strategies, healthcare systems can achieve better clinical outcomes and ensure financial sustainability.

Surgical Tray Optimization in the Setting of Cleft Lip and Palate Reconstruction: Implications for Operative Cost and Efficiency.

To assess surgical instrument usage in cleft lip (CL) and cleft palate (CP) surgery and create an optimized surgical tray with an associated cost-savings analysis. Prospective, observational study. Single institution, 6-month prospective review. A total of 10 primary CL surgeries and 10 primary CP surgeries were included in this study. Complete lists of surgical instruments utilized in CL and CP surgeries were collected. The average instrument UFs were 26.0% for CL and 22.6% for CP. The estimated costs were $33.15 to $290.29 for the original CL surgical tray and $10.20 to $63.80 for the optimized tray. For CP, the original tray's cost was estimated at $38.25 to $319.00, and the optimized tray at $9.18 to $57.42. This demonstrates a cost reduction of $22.95 to $226.49 for CL and $29.07 to 261.58 for CP. The idealized surgical instrument tray could contribute to reducing healthcare expenditures and promoting operating room efficiency, patient safety, and environmentally friendlier operating theaters.

Development of health care expenditures in Finland up to 2040

Abstract Background Increasing health care expenditures are threatening public health by complicating the supply of adequate health services. Exploration of possible future developments of the expenditures is needed to understand how to prepare for future or to change an unwanted course of development. We provided projections by health care sectors taking into account demographic and other developments. Methods We used national data on the realized expenditures per capita by age group, sex and health care sectors from 2017 to 2020, and official forecasts of the population in Finland up to 2040. Future per capita expenditures were projected with Bayesian linear regression models incorporating a priori dependency structure for the slope parameters of the age groups such that the time trends of adjacent groups would be more similar than other groups. These projections were then combined with the population forecasts to estimate the total expenditures. Results The greatest increase (164%) was estimated for the total costs of the primary outpatient healthcare: from 2153 to 5677 million euros in 2020-2040, such that 7% of the growth was attributed to demographic developments. The estimated growths were 68% for the primary inpatient healthcare, 14% for the specialised somatic healthcare, and 52% for the urgent and emergency health services, of which 91%, 98% and 21% were attributed to demographic developments, respectively. Conclusions Notable increases in expenditures are expected in all considered health care sectors, but there are great differences in the proportions of the growth attributed to demographic developments. Due to the limited role of demographic changes, it is worth focusing on controlling the impacts of other developments by, e.g., improving the population health and the efficiency of the health care system. Key messages • Notable increases are expected in health care expenditures up to 2040. • Impacts of demographic changes varies markedly between health care sectors.

Are post-communist countries paying increased healthcare costs because of risky behaviour?

Abstract Background Based on the annual Country Health Profiles, we can see the difference in population behaviour across EU countries and the associated health risks. At first glance, the so-called post-communist countries are characterised by above-average per-capita harmful consumption of sin goods, alcohol and tobacco. Is this harmful consumption associated with increased healthcare costs? Methods The idea of the study is based on balanced panel-data published in Country Health Profiles. The member countries were divided into groups based on their health risk scores - high risk (above average), and low risk (below average). The group of countries with high risk is mostly composed of post-communist countries. The detailed per-capita annual data for the period 2013-2021 was collected, such as GDP, consumption of sin goods, alcohol, and tobacco. The analysis is based on fixed-effects linear regression models, following recent recommendations on suppressing the excessive role of statistical-inference tools. Results We built various models for different groups of countries, and in this abstract, we present results for the group of post-communist countries - a simple model of harmful consumption (sin goods, GDP) and a more complex model (alcohol, tobacco, GDP). The results show that in the case of the post-communist countries group, for a fixed level of GDP per capita, higher consumption of sin goods by EUR 1 per capita corresponds with total healthcare expenditures higher by EUR 0.244 per capita. For a fixed level of GDP per capita and tobacco consumption per capita, higher consumption of alcohol by EUR 1 per capita corresponds with total healthcare expenditures higher by EUR 1.367 per capita. Conclusions Harmful consumption has a multiplier effect in the health sector; besides direct impact, it influences an increase in healthcare expenditures. More emphasis should be placed on prevention and awareness of consumers to reduce harmful consumption. Key messages • For fixed GDP per capita, higher harmful consumption corresponds with higher healthcare costs in post-communist countries. • For fixed GDP per capita and tobacco consumption per capita, a €1 higher alcohol consumption corresponds with more than €1 higher healthcare expenditure in the post-communist countries.

From crisis to chronic: a comparative analysis of Long COVID impact in Italy and the United States

Abstract Background The aftermath of COVID-19 is bringing about socio-economic consequences, such as diminished quality of life (QoL), decreased productivity, and considerable healthcare expenditures. Despite the emerging acknowledgment of a clinical syndrome following COVID-19 disease, known as Long COVID (LC), notable research gaps persist. This study aims to assess the epidemiological and economic impact of LC in both Italy and the United States (US). Methods This ecological analysis comprises epidemiologic and economic data from 2020 to January 2023, regarding working-age individuals (18-64 years). An Italy/US incidence rate ratio (eIRR) was estimated to compute LC cases in each country. The product between the value of a year spent in good health, individual Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) loss, and LC cases yielded total lost QoL. Temporary productivity loss (TPL) was calculated through the Human Capital Approach. All estimates were deemed significant at a p-value less than 0.05. Results Up to date, the eIRR was 0.78 [0.43 - 0.91] implying 22% fewer LC cases in Italy with respect to the US. Total LC cases were 11 [8.7 - 13.5] and 1.8 [0.9 - 2.1] million in the US and Italy, respectively. The relative QALYs loss was 1.5 [0.8 - 3.1] and 0.2 [0.1 - 0.9] million. Reduced QoL cost roughly $189 [164 - 214] billion in the US and €6 [1 - 11] billion in Italy. TPL amounted to $37 [21 - 57] billion in the US and €2.8 [1.2 - 7.4] billion in Italy. Americans aged 30-39 years showed the largest income loss (26.6%), while in Italy it occurred in the age group 50-64 years (38%). Conclusions LC places a substantial burden in Italy and the US, impacting both the productivity of the working-age population and influencing the younger generation, who constitute the future workforce. Our study underpins the necessity for comprehensive health policies, programs, and interventions alongside effective tertiary prevention strategies to tackle the challenges posed by LC. Key messages • According to this analysis, both countries show significant productivity and quality-adjusted life years loss due to LC among working age individuals. • Steering the formulation of evidence-based sounding health policies to address LC burden, among working age individuals, both in Italy and in the US.

Impact of artificial intelligence on healthcare-associated infection control: a systematic review

Abstract Background Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) represent a significant public health concern, correlating with increased morbidity, mortality rates and healthcare expenditures. While artificial intelligence (AI) systems offer transformative potential in enhancing HAIs detection and control practices, the actual performance effectiveness of these systems remains uncertain. This systematic review updates a previously published study from 2020 and evaluates the performance of AI-based tools for surveillance, detection, and control of HAIs. Methods PRISMA 2020 guidelines were applied. The study protocol has been registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42024513145). PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science were searched for experimental and observational studies assessing the performance of AI-based tools to detect and control HAIs, published in English. Results From 8,701 articles initially identified, 4,212 records were removed due to duplication. Out of 4,489 papers screened, 147 were included. Studies reported performance measures including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, precision, F1 score. Significant heterogeneity was found in the types of technology, infections targeted, health care settings and data sources between studies. Conclusions The increase in published evidence since the previous review reflects the growing interest and use of new technologies such as Large Language Models, showing promising performance in surveillance, early diagnosis and prediction of HAIs. However, the observed heterogeneity in study designs, targeted infections, healthcare settings, and data sources underscores the need for standardised methodologies and robust validation processes to ensure the reliability and comparability of results across different studies. Key messages • The use of AI-based tools has the potential to enhance surveillance, detection, and control of healthcare-associated infections, offering a transformative impact on healthcare systems. • Standardised methodologies and validation processes are needed to ensure comparable results across studies and to maximise the real-world impact of AI tools in HAI surveillance and control efforts.

Serum metabolomics improve risk stratification for incident heart failure

Abstract Background The prediction and early detection of heart failure (HF) is vital to reduce its substantial impact on quality of life, survival and healthcare expenditure. Current incident HF risk stratification strategies achieve only modest performance. Moreover, state-of-the-art risk scores focus on commonly acknowledged clinical risk factors, thus necessitating the integration of heterogenous data sources and prioritizing individuals with obvious risk constellations. Purpose Here, we explored the predictive value of serum metabolomics (168 metabolites detected by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H-NMR) spectroscopy) for incident HF. Methods Leveraging data of n = 68,311 individuals and &amp;gt; 0.8 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort, we (I) evaluated the association of individual metabolites with incident HF via fitting of per-metabolite COX proportional hazards models and (II) trained and validated elastic net (EN) models to predict incident HF using the serum metabolome. Discriminative performance was benchmarked against a comprehensive, well-validated clinical risk score (Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent HF, PCP-HF). External validation was conducted in the independent FINRISK study. Results Several metabolites were independently associated with incident HF (90/168 adjusting for age and sex, 48/168 adjusting for PCP-HF). Performance-optimized risk models effectively retained key predictors representing highly correlated clusters (≈ 80 % feature reduction). The addition of metabolomics to PCP-HF improved predictive performance (Harrel’s C: 0.768 vs. 0.755, ΔC = 0.013 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.004 – 0.022), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) = 0.287 (95% CI 0.200 – 0.367), relative integrated discrimination improvement (IDI): 17.47 % (95% CI 9.463 - 27.825)). Simplified models only including age, sex and metabolomics performed almost as well as the PCP-HF model (Harrel’s C: 0.745 vs. 0.755, ΔC = 0.010 (95% CI -0.004 - 0.027), continuous NRI: 0.097 (95% CI -0.025 - 0.217), relative IDI: 13.445 % (95% CI -10.608 - 41.454)). Risk and survival stratification was improved by integrating metabolomics. External validation within FINRISK revealed similar patterns using the original model coefficients. Conclusions Serum metabolomics improve the prediction of incident HF risk. Scores obtained from the combination of age, sex and metabolomics exhibit similar predictive power as clinical risk models. Offering serum metabolomics to a middle-aged cohort might significantly improve HF risk stratification, thus facilitating preventive efforts. Via a single blood draw, serum metabolomics displays a highly cost- and time-effective, standardizable, and scalable alternative to clinical risk scores involving physical measurements and history taking in addition to clinical chemistry.Relative performance (test split)ROC &amp; DCA plots (test split)