Hazardous Natural Phenomena Research Articles

Source reservoir controls on the size, frequency, and composition of large-scale volcanic eruptions.

Large-scale, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena. We demonstrate that their size, frequency, and composition can be explained by processes in long-lived, high-crystallinity source reservoirs that control the episodic creation of large volumes of eruptible silicic magma and its delivery to the subvolcanic chamber where it is stored before eruption. Melt percolates upward through the reservoir and accumulates a large volume of low-crystallinity silicic magma which remains trapped until buoyancy causes magma-driven fractures to propagate into the overlying crust, allowing rapid magma transfer from the reservoir into the chamber. Ongoing melt percolation in the reservoir accumulates a new magma layer and the process repeats. Our results suggest that buoyancy, rather than crystallinity, is the key control on magma delivery from the source reservoir. They identify an optimum reservoir size for the largest silicic eruptions that is consistent with data from natural systems and explain why larger magnitude eruptions are not observed on Earth.

СТИМУЛИРОВАНИЕ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЛЕСНОЙ ЭКОСИСТЕМЫ В УСЛОВИЯХ БОРЬБЫ С КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИМИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯМИ

This article reveals the problems and ways to solve them related to the sustainable development of forestry in the face of climate change. Vector global trends, such as global climate change and the growth of anthropogenic pressure, entail a huge negative impact on the environment, in the form of degradation of natural ecosystems and a reduction in their biological diversity. The processes of depletion of natural mineral resources, water, land, and forest resources increase the likelihood of environmental disasters, as well as lead to hazardous natural phenomena with a subsequent negative effect on the economic and social components of the life of the population in a country or region. The forest ecosystem, as a global natural phenomenon and part of the economy of nature management, not only satisfies the resource needs of mankind, but is also of great importance for maintaining the integrity and maintaining the sustainability of the existence of the biosphere in the processes of sequestration and storage of carbon and, consequently, in reducing the greenhouse effect and mitigating the effects of climate change. Our analysis of the forest ecosystem is based on an indicative in the form of nature-adapted solutions in the field of sustainable development. As part of the study, based on the analysis of literary sources, the main reasons hindering the sustainable development of forestry were identified. The need to create conditions in the form of conceptual foundations for the sustainable development of "nature-like" forestry, such as: sustainable economic development, sustainable development of the environment and culture, is noted.

Опасные гидрологические явления Красноярского края и заблаговременность их прогноза

In Russia, there are significant fluctuations in climatic conditions throughout the country, the damage from hydrometeorological phenomena is 80–90% of the total damage of a natural nature. For the territory of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, five types of dangerous hydrological phenomena are characteristic, leading to the occurrence of material damage: traffic jams, ice jams, low low water, floods and floods. The research material was long-term data on fixing dangerous hydrological phenomena with fixed material damage for 30 years. The analysis of dangerous hydrological phenomena was carried out, the stationarity of the time series was checked, and conclusions were drawn about the statistical significance of the obtained trends. Information about the issued forecasts for each hydrological phenomenon is analyzed, information about their lead time is systematized. Research data can be used by institutions and organizations authorized to conduct environmental monitoring in determining regional lists and criteria for hazardous natural phenomena.

Mathematical Modeling of Hazardous Natural Phenomena in a Shallow Basin

Mathematical Modeling of Hazardous Natural Phenomena in a Shallow Basin

Hydrogeological processes and phenomena and assessment of their danger

In modern complex engineering-geological conditions of cities, the growth and scale of development of dangerous natural processes and phenomena can be traced. In many ways, the reasons for this are not only technogenic load on the soil, but also changes in climatic factors. Buildings and objects exposed to hazardous factors of hydrogeological processes are becoming increasingly vulnerable to their impact, which can lead to catastrophic consequences. One of the main conditions for increasing the stability of objects is the adaptation of existing methods or approaches to assessing natural hazards that have a negative impact on the physical state of such objects. The authors of the article propose an adaptation of the international INFORM approach in order to assess the hazard level of natural processes and phenomena in built-up areas. The task is also to develop a methodology for assessing the physical state of objects exposed to such processes and phenomena. To solve this problem, the study examines the practical aspects of applying the principles of the Weber-Fechner law in determining the state of the structural parameters of buildings that are under the influence of negative factors of hazardous natural processes and phenomena. The study is based on the principle of changing the category of the physical state of objects from changes in the level of exposure to hazardous factors of natural processes and phenomena.

Аномальные явления и геоэкологическая обстановка российского Дальнего Востока

The development of the geosystems of the Russian Far East proceeds under the enormous but contradictory in nature double influence of the continent and the ocean and is carried out through the atmosphere. The goal is to characterize hazardous natural phenomena depending on the differentiated natural tension of the Far East (from maximum in the south to moderate in the north), often causing disasters and creating tense levels of the geoecological situation in general. The article presents comparative-geographical, geophysical, informational methods, as well as author’s development, etc. Further strengthening of the natural continentality of the entire region climate predetermines a directed increase in the geosystems development of the role of hazardous natural processes. If a sharp anthropogenic climate warming occurs, an accelerated rise in the level of the World Ocean is possible, which will cause increased abrasion, avalanches and landslides in the coastal zone. In case of a persisting general cooling, a general extremalization of the entire natural environment will occur. Crisis situations are, to a certain extent, predictable, which can help in optimizing rational nature management.

PEOPLE ARE THE MAIN OBJECT OF PROTECTION IN BUILDINGS WITH DANGEROUS NATURAL PHENOMENA

Despite the current natural hazard in Russia, when most of its vast territory may be exposed to the effects of various hazardous natural phenomena, in all federal laws and regulations of the Russian Federation construction content is not even recognized as the "main object of protection" from these influences. So, one of the indicators of not recognizing people as the "main object of protection" when exposed to hazardous natural phenomena is the lack of provisions in federal laws and regulations of the Russian Federation of construction content, which should address the protection of people's health in buildings under impacts, for example, earthquakes, fires. And this is despite the truth long ago established by medical scientists that in case of an earthquake or fire, the protection of people's health depends on the space-planning and design solutions of buildings. Therefore, the article substantiates that without recognizing people as the "main object of protection" in buildings under dangerous natural phenomena, it is simply impossible to protect people's life and health under these dangerous influences.

THE MAIN CRITERIA FOR MASS RESIDENTIAL AND PUBLIC BUILDINGS IN RUSSIA ARE THE TERMS OF THEIR OPERATION

For the reason that approximately 95% of the population of Russia is located in urban and rural settlements, therefore, the construction system of Russia should recognize the «construction of settlements» as its main task. However, in federal laws and regulations of the Russian Federation construction content is not even recognized as “capital construction objects”. Moreover, Federal Law No. 384-FZ does not even contain a record that the individual buildings and structures considered in them are intended (not intended) for construction in the territories of settlements. The article substantiates that mass residential and public buildings in order to protect the life and health of people under the influence of hazardous natural phenomena should be erected only with the maximum period of their operation.

ТЕРРИТОРИИ С НЕУСТОЙЧИВОЙ ФУНКЦИОНАЛЬНОСТЬЮ В СТРУКТУРЕ ЭКОЛОГО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ЗОН

Разрабатывая проекты конструкций экономических каркасов горных долин Кабардино-Балкарии, авторы столкнулись с ситуацией, когда ряд важных функциональных фрагментов ландшафтов, с возрастающей частотой стали подвергаться различным видам опасных природных явлений. При этом большинство земельных угодий теряет прикладное значение, впоследствии восстанавливая функциональность в процессе естественной динамики или при компенсаторном вмешательстве человека. В обычное же время, нарушаемые стихией участки вполне исправно выполняют возложенные на них функции. В отдельных случаях, последствия внешнего воздействия стихийных бедствий исключают дальнейшее хозяйственное использование элементов ландшафтов.
 Учитывая явно выраженную тенденцию глобального изменения климата, воздействие аномальных природных процессов на горные ландшафты, вероятно, будет продолжаться. В этой ситуации возникает дилемма, к какой категории земель следует относить участки с крайне высокой изменчивостью природных свойств.
 Актуальность предложенной темы заключается в том, что в горах функциональные свойства земель нередко меняются в силу природных стихийных внешних воздействий. Поэтому при текущем проектировании адаптивных экономических каркасов применительно к горным долинам, часто возникает проблема определения места земель с неустойчивой функцией в конструкциях каркасов.
 Целью работы является обоснование возможности функционального использования периодически накрываемых природной стихией горнодолинных угодий, целесообразности включения их в конструкцию экономических каркасов в качестве природных ресурсов с прикладным значением. Для достижения обозначенной цели решались следующие задачи:
 
 формулирование понятия «территория критического природопользования» (ТКП) и осмысление возможного ее места в проектах конструкций экономических каркасов горных долин;
 составление информационного блока исходных материалов о распространении, параметрах и частоте прохождения опасных природных явлений применительно к важным ареалам традиционного природопользования;
 ранжирование фрагментов территорий критического природопользования по частоте, досягаемости стихией различных их участков, чтобы выделить фрагменты ландшафта, которые практически всегда сохраняют функциональность.
 
 Методология. В соответствии с намеченной целью и поставленными задачами, авторы опирались на следующие методы исследования:
 
 с помощью картографического метода рассмотрены очаги воздействия крупных опасных природных процессов на функциональные ландшафты и проанализированы парагенетические их связи со смежными фрагментами геосистем;
 маршрутный метод позволил проследить индикационные связи между нарушенными геокомплексами и антропогенным на них давлением в промежутке между Череком – Балкарским и Череком – Безенгийским;
 на базе прогнозного метода рекомендовано принятие управленческого решения о целесообразности смены функций целого ряда прикладных фрагментов ландшафтов;
 на основе экспериментального метода подтверждено достижение критического уровня нарушений в целом ряде мест, блокирующих сохранение прежних функций ландшафтов.
 
 Настоящая публикация основывается на теоретических и эмпирических исследованиях российских и зарубежных ученых: Исаченко А.Г., Мамай И.И., Кочурова Б.И., Родоман Б.Б., Беручашвили Н.Л., дополненных спецификацией рассматриваемой территории.

Protection of Localities in Hazardous Natural Phenomena is the Main Purposeof the Russian Construction System

Protection of Localities in Hazardous Natural Phenomena is the Main Purposeof the Russian Construction System

Дослідження методів спектрального аналізу зображень для детектування лісових пожеж з використанням технологій обчислювального інтелекту

The article studies the methods of spectral analysis of images for detecting forest fires using computer intelligence technologies. For spectral analysis, satellite images of wildfires from the open source NASA Earth Observatory were used, which is the main source of satellite images and other scientific information related to climate and the environment provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for a wide range of research.  The Volume Segmenter tool of the MATLAB package was used to create a three-dimensional model of the fire, with the help of which a three-dimensional zone of fire was selected. The color image of the fire was segmented, threshold values ​​for color channels were set based on different color spaces, and a binary segmentation mask was created for the color image, using the MATLAB Color Thresholder tool. The conjugate gradient method was used to create a neural network for analyzing the image of the spread of fire. This method was chosen because it does not require a lot of system memory, and also provides the ability to structure any data, constantly improving its properties. To train the model, several passes were carried out so that the neural network showed the most accurate results. The results of the study will be used to create a web service in real time, which will record hazardous natural phenomena, generate notifications and make recommendations for the prompt elimination of their consequences.

Mapping of hazardous hydrological events in the Russian part of the Selenga River basin

The Selenga River is a major tributary of Lake Baikal. Its basin is characterized by a fairly high degree of economic activity. Floods in the Selenga River basin are hazardous natural phenomena which can cause threats to people’s lives and enormous damage to the settlements and infrastructure. The flooded areas in the settlements are delineated by using various methods: hydro-morphological surveys, leveling of sections along riverbeds and floodplains (151 profiles in total), as well as results of hydrodynamic modeling of flooding processes by using a program, HEC-RAS, developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The flood zones are simulated for maximum water levels with 100, 33, and 20-years frequency. In the future, the compiled flood database is planned to be published as part of an online web map service, “Hydro-Ecological Safety in the Selenga River Basin”.

Mapping of changes in the stress-strain state of a landslide risk slope using an Earth’s natural pulsed electromagnetic field method

Among the wide range of hazardous natural processes and phenomena, the exogenic geodynamical processes stand aside. These events can either directly or indirectly provoke or amplify socio-economic or technogenic risks, and differ considerably in the time and space scales. The landslide processes can affect the environmental situation, decrease the durability of real estate objects, compromise the integrity of transportation and engineering infrastructure, and endanger the population safety. Among the reasons of soil plots destabilization are water cuts and technogenic stress on the geo-environment. As cities continue to grow, the environmental load increases. Global warming leads to an increase in precipitation and changes the regional hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, the problem of landslide research and forecasting becomes more urgent. This work presents results of a field research carried out on a site prone to intensive landslide process development, ravine erosion, and rain-wash by using an Earth’s natural pulsed electromagnetic field (ENPEMF) method. It has been demonstrated that the exogenic slope processes can develop rapidly and the occasional surveys alone are not enough to protect the infrastructure objects. It is necessary to establish an online ongoing monitoring of the stress-strain state (SSS) of the rocks. The ENPEMF method allows an instrumental real-time estimation of the soil stability and can be recommended for continuous monitoring of the SSS of the rocks.

Predicting the unpredictable

Better understanding of hazardous natural phenomena means improved preparedness and the opportunity to mitigate the damaging impact of these natural hazards. For example, improving knowledge about earthquakes can enable safer buildings to be built, as well as disaster prevention measures to be implemented, ultimately saving lives. This is particularly important in a country like Japan, which is earthquake-prone and where earthquakes prove to be very unpredictable. A team of Japanese researchers is seeking to reduce uncertainty in earthquake hazards by conducting statistical analyses of seismic activity, with a focus on the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake. These investigations have enabled the researchers to estimate the state of the stress in and around the earthquake's focal region, and they believe this may lead to a method for qualitatively evaluating whether the next Nankai Trough earthquake is imminent.

Natural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in Russia

Abstract. The transport infrastructure of Russia is exposed to multiple impacts of various natural hazards and adverse weather phenomena such as heavy rains and snowfalls, river floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches, rockfalls, and ice phenomena. The paper considers impacts of hazardous natural processes and phenomena on transport within the area of Russia. Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural factors to road, railway, air, and water transport accidents and failures are assessed. The total risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions triggered by adverse and hazardous natural impacts, as well as the risk of road and railway accidents and disruptions as the most popular modes of transport, is assessed at the level of Russian federal regions. The concept of an emergency situation is used to measure risk. In the risk analysis, 838 emergency situations of various scales and severity caused by natural hazard impacts on the transport infrastructure from 1992 to 2018 are considered. The average annual number of emergencies is taken as an indicator of risk. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and disruptions due to natural events are analyzed. Regions most at risk are identified.

Numerical and experimental investigation of saturated granular column collapse in air

Many hazardous natural phenomena like debris flows, avalanches and submerged landslides are governed by the interactions between solid grains and interstitial fluid. They display a complex interplay of physical mechanisms, which are still very challenging to simulate with numerical methods. Different methods have been proposed in the literature to achieve this goal. This paper compares the results of two different numerical approaches: (i) a macromechanical continuum approach with the two-phase double-point Material Point Method (MPM) and (ii) a micromechanical approach with Discrete Element Method coupled with the Lattice Boltzmann Method (DEM-LBM). With the objective of highlighting potentialities and critical points of the two approaches, we conduct saturated granular column collapses in a small-scale laboratory experiment, subsequently reproduced by the numerical codes. Unlike previous experiments of collapse under gravity in dry or completely submerged conditions, in this paper the saturated material is released in air. These conditions better reproduce real natural onshore landslides and allows a discussion on the solid–fluid interaction.

Historical floods within the Selenga river basin: chronology and extreme events

Large floods are among the most hazardous natural phenomena, which in many cases cause enormous losses to the economy and lead to human casualties. Along with the use of modern instrumental data, the analysis of historical information on large past floods is widely practiced in the world. This allows obtaining qualitative and quantitative characteristics of historical floods and significantly expanding the observation series. The Selenga River is one of the largest rivers of Central Asia with catchment area equal to 447,060 km2, and also it is rather flood-prone river. The hydrological regime of the Selenga River is quite well studied in the twentieth century on the basis of gauging stations data, but there is still a lack of knowledge about past floods. In this paper, we present a list of 26 known floods within the Selenga River basin from 1730 to 1900, compiled from available historical documents (newspapers, scientific reports, diaries, memoirs, etc.). We estimated peak water levels for three catastrophic floods (1830, 1869 and 1897), the historical maximum of which was 850 cm. The reliability of our estimates is confirmed by a comparative analysis of the large 1971 flood. It was revealed that the largest floods can cause a rise of the Lake Baikal water level up to 200 cm. The inflow to Lake Baikal resulting from the largest floods in the Selenga River basin is comparable to the average annual inflow of water into the lake. We can conclude that the use of historical data for the analysis of floods in Eastern Siberia is quite acceptable, but some limitations must be taken into account.

The Russian Construction System’s Goal of Reducing the Cost of Mass Residential and Public Buildings

Almost all human professional activity is realized via some type of system. A high-quality work system must be created taking into account the requirements of professionals with the corresponding specialties. Otherwise, the system and the professional activity of its associated employees will be ineffective as a minimum. A good example is Russia’s construction system. The present article’s analysis of the main provisions of Russian federal construction laws and regulations shows that the main aim in construction is the protection of people’s lives and health in residential and public buildings under the impact of hazardous natural phenomena, which in the Russian construction system is done in gross violation of articles 2 and 72 of the Russian Federation Constitution. For example, populated areas—the largest construction projects in Russia—are not even acknowledged as capital construction projects by federal laws and regulations, which makes it possible to cheapen the construction of mass residential and public buildings. Based on a number of theoretical technical requirements on construction of residential and public buildings, the article substantiates the thesis that the Russian construction system should contain a particular major element that could solve the problem of protecting human life and health under the impact of natural hazards: a group of regional specialists with in-depth knowledge of local conditions.

Картографирование трубопроводного транспорта углеводородов Арктического региона России

Pipeline transport plays a key role in the infrastructure of the oil and gas complex in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. It is the most efficient type of hydrocarbon transportation and currently dominates in terms of freight traffic in the Russian Arctic. Among the shortcomings of this type of transport, one can single out a very high cost of investment in construction, as well as the threat of damage to the nature of the region. An alternative option for transporting hydrocarbons produced in the Arctic region of Russia is the export of oil, liquefied gas and gas condensate by sea tankers. To solve a number of problems that have arisen during the exploitation of the Arctic hydrocarbon resources, spatial analysis and an integrated cartographic assessment of the current transport situation are necessary. As a result of the research, a series of thematic maps of the transport infrastructure of the oil and gas complex of the Russian Arctic was created (scale 1 : 20 000 000). An integrated mapping method has been implemented that takes into account the environmental, technological, transport and economic characteristics of pipeline transport. Assessment and forecast indicators were developed. Thematic content includes: resource potential of the industry; centers for the extraction, storage and processing of oil and gas; network of trunk pipelines with classification according to the number of branches and the diameter of the pipes; existing and potential hydrocarbons delivery routes; the degree of impact of hazardous natural processes and phenomena on the components of the oil and gas complex. The developed maps make it possible to objectively assess the state of the pipeline transport of hydrocarbons in the Arctic region of Russia and can serve as an essential part of the system for making responsible decisions on modernizing the infrastructure of the oil and gas complex to ensure sustainable development and safe operation.

Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018.

Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8-cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcano's summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.