Halosteric Sea Level Research Articles

Impacts of model resolution on the simulation of sea-level variability by a global ocean-sea ice model

The effects of model resolution on the simulation of sea-level variability were analyzed based on the second-generation climate system ocean model from the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmosphere Physics (LICOM2) with resolutions of 1° (LICOM2-L) and 0.1° (LICOM2-H).The interannual variability, decadal variability, and long-term trends of the dynamic sea level (DSL) are estimated using a multivariate linear regression model based on the LICOM2-L and LICOM2-H datasets during 1958–2007. The analysis reveals that the distributions of interannual and decadal variability, as well as long-term trends, are consistent between the LICOM2-L and LICOM2-H simulations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, differences in these variabilities are most pronounced in the regions of the western boundary currents and Antarctic Circumpolar Current, primarily due to variations in thermosteric sea level (TSSL) and halosteric sea level. In contrast, the DSL variability differences in the Southern Ocean are mainly due to the TSSL. Analyses of ocean heat content (OHC) budgets suggest that the differences between the LICOM2-L and LICOM2-H simulations are mainly in decadal variability and long-term trends. The interannual and decadal variabilities of OHC are significantly influenced by both large-scale mean advection and eddy-induced transport. The latter plays a more pronounced role in high-latitude regions and contributes notably to decadal variability and trend differences. At the equator, eddy-induced transport is the primary driver of long-term trends, accounting for 80% of the total contribution, while the large-scale mean advection contributes the remaining 20%. These findings underscore the complex interplay between mean advection and eddy processes in shaping the thermohaline structure and sea-level variability in the ocean models.

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003

In recent sea level studies, discrepancies have arisen in ocean mass observations obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its successor, GRACE Follow-On, with GRACE estimates consistently appearing lower than density-corrected ocean volume observations since 2015. These disparities have raised concerns about potential systematic biases in sea-level observations, with significant implications for our understanding of this essential climate variable. Here, we reconstruct the global and regional ocean mass change through models of ice and water mass changes on land and find that it closely aligns with both GRACE and density-corrected ocean volume observations after implementing recent adjustments to the wet troposphere correction and halosteric sea level. While natural variability in terrestrial water storage is important on interannual timescales, we find that the net increase in ocean mass over 20 years can be almost entirely attributed to ice wastage and human management of water resources.

Mechanisms of projected sea-level trends and variability in the Southeast Asia region based on MPI-ESM-ER

The low-lying and densely populated Southeast Asia (SEA) region is threatened by sea-level change. To better understand the mechanism of sea-level change in this region, the sea-level trends and variability in the SEA region are investigated over the historical period 1950–2014 and during 2015–2099 under Shared Socio-economic Pathway5-8.5 scenario forcing, based on the output of the high-resolution (~ 0.1° for ocean) global climate model MPI-ESM-ER. The results confirm that the SEA sterodynamic sea level and its components (i.e., thermosteric, halosteric, and manometric sea level) are rising with accelerations, which are superimposed on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven variabilities. To understand changes of thermosteric and halosteric sea level, regional-mean ocean heat and freshwater contents are analysed based on physical processes of ocean transports and air-sea fluxes. We show that ENSO variability impacts the thermosteric sea level mainly through lateral ocean heat transports, while it impacts the halosteric sea level mainly through surface freshwater flux. In the projection, a decreased volume transport of the relatively cold water (with respect to the SEA average) from the Pacific warms the SEA region. At the same time, a freshening of the transported saline water (with respect to the SEA average) results in an increased ocean freshwater transport into the SEA region. Locally, the pathway of volume transport from the Pacific to the SEA region is shifting northward, which results in a weakened Indonesian throughflow and an enhanced South China Sea throughflow, both leading to changes of regional sea-level pattern.

Forcing Mechanisms of the Interannual Sea Level Variability in the Midlatitude South Pacific during 2004–2020

Over the past few decades, the global mean sea level rise and superimposed regional fluctuations of sea level have exerted considerable stress on coastal communities, especially in low-elevation regions such as the Pacific Islands in the western South Pacific Ocean. This made it necessary to have the most comprehensive understanding of the forcing mechanisms that are responsible for the increasing rates of extreme sea level events. In this study, we explore the causes of the observed sea level variability in the midlatitude South Pacific on interannual time scales using observations and atmospheric reanalyses combined with a 1.5 layer reduced-gravity model. We focus on the 2004–2020 period, during which the Argo’s global array allowed us to assess year-to-year changes in steric sea level caused by thermohaline changes in different depth ranges (from the surface down to 2000 m). We find that during the 2015–2016 El Niño and the following 2017–2018 La Niña, large variations in thermosteric sea level occurred due to temperature changes within the 100–500 dbar layer in the midlatitude southwest Pacific. In the western boundary region (from 30°S to 40°S), the variations in halosteric sea level between 100 and 500 dbar were significant and could have partially balanced the corresponding changes in thermosteric sea level. We show that around 35°S, baroclinic Rossby waves forced by the open-ocean wind-stress forcing account for 40 to 75% of the interannual sea level variance between 100°W and 180°, while the influence of remote sea level signals generated near the Chilean coast is limited to the region east of 100°W. The contribution of surface heat fluxes on interannual time scales is also considered and shown to be negligible.

Basin-Scale Sea Level Budget from Satellite Altimetry, Satellite Gravimetry, and Argo Data over 2005 to 2019

Monitoring sea level changes and exploring their causes are of great significance for future climate change predictions and the sustainable development of mankind. This study uses multiple sets of satellite altimetry, satellite gravity, and ocean temperature and salinity data to study the basin-scale sea level budget (SLB) from 2005 to 2019. The basin-scale sea level rises significantly at a rate of 2.48–4.31 mm/yr, for which the ocean mass component is a main and stable contributing factor, with a rate of 1.77–2.39 mm/yr, while the steric component explains a ~1 mm/yr sea level rise in most ocean basins, except for the Southern Ocean. Due to the drift in Argo salinity since 2016, the residuals of basin-scale SLB are significant from 2016 to 2019. The worst-affected ocean is the Atlantic Ocean, where the SLB is no longer closed from 2005 to 2019. If halosteric sea level change trends from 2005 to 2015 are used to revise salinity data after 2016, the SLB on the ocean basin scale can be kept closed. However, the SLB on the global scale is still not closed and requires further study. Therefore, we recommend that Argo salinity products after 2016 should be used with caution.

Simulated sea levels during 1948–2009 in a global ocean-sea ice model for OMIP

This paper assesses the ability of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP) Climate System Ocean Model version 3 (LICOM3) to simulate sea levels. For the time series of global changes, most of the global mean steric sea level (SSL) changes were dominated by thermosteric sea level (TSSL) changes in the upper 700 m, with a relatively small contribution from halosteric sea level (HSSL). LICOM3 can reproduce the observed dynamic sea level (DSL) in most regions to reflect the spatial patterns of regional changes. Deviations between LICOM3 and observations were mainly concentrated in the western boundary current and the tropical eastern Pacific. The departure in the western boundary current was primarily related to the model resolution. LICOM3 could not depict DSL changes in the high latitudes where the mesoscale eddies were active. The excessive negative trend in the tropical eastern Pacific was mainly caused by the trend error in the CORE-II forcing products. For the sea level variability, the analysis results of different DSL periods showed that the LICOM3 model could simulate interannual and decadal variability and the satellite altimeter period trend. At least 50 years of data were used to separate the decadal variability and long-term trend. The decadal variability had no significant effect on the 50-year long-term trend change in the DSL in the tropical western Pacific.Analysis of sea level component contributions showed that the changes in global time series, spatial patterns, and sea level variability mainly resulted from the change in TSSL. The TSSL changes in the upper 700 m could roughly reflect the TSSL changes for the whole depth, except for the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic, the contribution of HSSL was comparable to and compensated by TSSL. When compared with reanalysis, the simulation generated differences in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. The linear trend of TSSL simulated by LICOM3 was much stronger than that simulated by reanalysis. The deviation of the Southern Ocean may be related to the CORE-II forcing product. The lack of observations in the Southern Ocean led to the uncertainty of the CORE-II forcing product.

Seasonal and long-term sea-level variations and their forcing factors in the northern Bay of Bengal: A statistical analysis of temperature, salinity, wind stress curl, and regional climate index data

In the northern Bay of Bengal, mechanisms of seasonal sea-level variation have not previously been examined, and the understanding of longer-term inter-annual sea-level variation is also not concrete. These parameters are addressed in this study utilizing available tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. The contribution of steric sea level to seasonal and longer-term inter-annual sea-level variations is quantified, and statistical analysis is performed to determine the correlations of various atmospheric and oceanic factors with sea level. This study suggests that the trend of sea-level rise in this bay (4 ± 1.33 mm/year) is higher than the global average (3.32 ± 0.46 mm/year) for the studied period 1993 to 2018. The rate of sea-level rise is higher along the coast than in the offshore area and the highest in the central part of the coast. Sea level shows a strong seasonal variation: sea level is the lowest in the winter but the highest in autumn. The contribution from the thermosteric sea level is higher to the observed sea level from winter to early summer, whereas contributions from the halosteric sea level and wind stress curl are higher during autumn. Long-term variations in sea level show strong positive correlations with thermosteric sea level, indicating that temperature is a major local controlling factor for sea-level change. In addition to local factors, long-term sea level also varies by remote forcing (equatorial zonal wind stress), which explains approximately 36 % of the sea-level variation in this bay. Sea level is low during the combined events of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño, whereas the sea level is high during the combined events of negative IOD and La Niña. This study provides an improved understanding of seasonal and longer-term inter-annual variations of sea level and the necessary groundworks for a dedicated model study to further quantify all the components of the sea-level budget in the study areas.

How Salty Is the Global Ocean: Weighing It All or Tasting It a Sip at a Time?

AbstractGlobal ocean mean salinity is a key indicator of the Earth's hydrological cycle and the exchanges of freshwater between land and ocean, but its determination remains a challenge. Aside from traditional methods based on gridded salinity fields derived from in situ measurements, we explore estimates of based on liquid freshwater changes derived from space gravimetry data corrected for sea ice effects. For the 2005–2019 period analyzed, the different series show little consistency in seasonal, interannual, and long‐term variability. In situ estimates show sensitivity to choice of product and unrealistic variations. A suspiciously large rise in since ∼2015 is enough to measurably affect halosteric sea level estimates and can explain recent discrepancies in the global mean sea level budget. Gravimetry‐based estimates are more realistic, inherently consistent with estimated freshwater contributions to global mean sea level, and provide a way to calibrate the in situ estimates.

Arctic Sea Level Budget Assessment during the GRACE/Argo Time Period

Sea level change is an important indicator of climate change. Our study focuses on the sea level budget assessment of the Arctic Ocean using: (1) the newly reprocessed satellite altimeter data with major changes in the processing techniques; (2) ocean mass change data derived from GRACE satellite gravimetry; (3) and steric height estimated from gridded hydrographic data for the GRACE/Argo time period (2003–2016). The Beaufort Gyre (BG) and the Nordic Seas (NS) regions exhibit the largest positive trend in sea level during the study period. Halosteric sea level change is found to dominate the area averaged sea level trend of BG, while the trend in NS is found to be influenced by halosteric and ocean mass change effects. Temporal variability of sea level in these two regions reveals a significant shift in the trend pattern centered around 2009–2011. Analysis suggests that this shift can be explained by a change in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the Arctic. The sea level budget assessment of the Arctic found a residual trend of more than 1.0 mm/yr. This nonclosure of the sea level budget is further attributed to the limitations of the three above mentioned datasets in the Arctic region.

Contribution of the Amazon River Discharge to Regional Sea Level in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

The Amazon River is by far the largest river by volume of water in the world, representing around 17% of the global riverine discharge to the oceans. Recent studies suggested that its impact on sea level is potentially important at global and regional scales. This study uses a set of regional simulations based on the ocean model NEMO to quantify the influence of the Amazon runoff on sea level in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The model is forced at its boundaries with daily fields from the ocean reanalysis GLORYS2V4. Air-sea fluxes are computed using atmospheric variables from DFS5.2, which is a bias-corrected version of ERAinterim reanalysis. The particularity of this study is that interannual daily runoffs from the up-to-date ISBA-CTRIP land surface model are used. Firstly, mean state of sea level is investigated through a comparison between a simulation with an interannual river discharge and a simulation without any Amazon runoff. Then, the impact of the Amazon River on seasonal and interannual variability of sea level is examined. It was shown that the Amazon River has a local contribution to the mean state sea level at the river mouth but also a remote contribution of 3.3 cm around the whole Caribbean Archipelago, a region threatened by the actual sea level rise. This effect is mostly due to a halosteric sea level contribution for the upper 250 m of the ocean. This occurs in response to the large scale advection of the plume and the downward mixing of subsurface waters at winter time. The Amazon discharge also induces an indirect thermosteric sea level contribution. However, this contribution is of second order and tends to counterbalance the halosteric sea level contribution. Regional mass redistributions are also observed and consist in a 8 cm decrease of the sea level at the river mouth and a 4.5 increases on continental shelves of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. In terms of variability, simulations indicate that the Amazon discharge may contributes to 23% and 12% of the seasonal and interannual sea level variances in the Caribbean Archipelago area. These variances are first explained by the Amazon time mean discharge and show very weak sensitivity to the seasonal and interannual variability of the Amazon runoff.

Steric Sea Level Variability in the East Asian Seas estimated from Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project Data

In this study, steric height variability in the East Asian Seas (EAS) has been analyzed by using ocean reanalysis intercomparison project (ORA-IP) data. Results show that there are significant correlations between ocean reanalysis and satellite data except the phase of annual cycle and interannual signals of the Yellow Sea. Reanalysis ensemble derived from 15-different assimilation systems depicts higher correlation (0.706) than objective analysis ensemble (0.296) in the EAS. This correlation coefficient is also much higher than that of the global ocean (0.441). For the longterm variability of the thermosteric sea level during 1993-2010, a significant warming trend is found in the East/Japan Sea, while cooling trend is shown around the Kuroshio extension area. For the halosteric sea level, a dominant freshening trend is found in the EAS. However, below 300 m depth around this area, the signal-to-noise ratio of the linear trend is generally less than one, which is related to the low density of observation data.

Pacific modulation of accelerated south Indian Ocean sea level rise during the early 21st Century

The south Indian Ocean has shown an unprecedented sea-level rise during the early 21st Century. Sea-level rise in the south Indian Ocean is found to be 37% quicker than the global mean sea-level during 2000–2015. Observational datasets and long-term proxy records identify Pacific origin of the south Indian Ocean sea-level rise. Our results indicate that co-evolution of the cold phase of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and prolonged La Nina-like condition enhances the equatorial Pacific easterlies. Stronger in-phase association of these major Pacific climate modes and equatorial Pacific easterlies enhances the Indonesian throughflow (ITF), transporting fresh and warm water anomalies from western tropical Pacific into the south Indian Ocean. As a result, south Indian Ocean sea-level rise has accelerated more than the global, with 40% contribution from the halosteric sea level primarily through the ITF transport and a secondary from the local processes during 2000–2015. The co-evolution of PDO and the south Indian Ocean sea level is also evident from the long-term proxy records indicating that the association is part of an internal mode of variability modulated on decadal time-scales. The finding from the study cautions that accelerated heat and freshwater intrusion from the western Pacific with the co-evolution of PDO and La Nina-like condition may lead to the accelerated sea-level rise and marine heat waves in the south Indian Ocean imposing threats to the life of coral reefs and marine ecosystems.

Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988–2014)

AbstractRising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual‐to‐interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988–2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

Halosteric Sea Level Changes during the Argo Era

In addition to the sea level (SL) change, or anomaly (SLA), due to ocean thermal expansion, total steric SLA (SSLA, all change to the existing volume of ocean water) is also affected by ocean salinity variation. Less attention, however, has been paid to this halosteric effect, due to the global dominance of thermosteric SLA (TSLA) and the scarcity of salinity measurements. Here, we analyze halosteric SLA (HSLA) since 2005, when Argo data reached near-global ocean coverage, based on several observational products. We find that, on global average, the halosteric component contributes negatively by ~5.8% to SSLA during the 2005–2015 period, and reveals a modest correlation (~0.38) with ENSO on the inter-annual scale. Vertically, the global ocean was saltier in the upper 200-m and fresher within 200 to 600-m since 2005, while the change below 600-m was not significantly different from zero. The upper 200-m changes dominate the HSLA, suggesting the importance of surface fresh water flux forcing; meanwhile, the ocean dynamic might also play a role. The inconsistent pattern of salinity trend between upper 200-m and 200 to 600-m implies the importance of ocean dynamics. Our analysis suggests that local salinity changes cannot be neglected, and can even play a more important role in SSLA than the thermosteric component in some regions, such as the Tropical/North Pacific Ocean, the Southern Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean. This study highlights the need to better reconstruct historical salinity datasets, to better monitor the past SSLA changes. Also, it is important to understand the mechanisms (ocean dynamics vs. surface flux) related to regional ocean salinity changes.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo‐Pacific region during the altimetry era

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low‐frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo‐Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint‐based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface‐intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

The regional patterns of the global dynamic and steric sea level variation in twenty-first century projections

This study discusses the regional sea-level variation associated with possible influence factors using Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in the 21st century. Under the moderate emission scenario of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), the predicted sea-level variation is spatially non-uniform. The most remarkable variation of the dynamic sea level (DSL) is observed in three typical regions (North Pacific, Southern Ocean, and North Atlantic). In the North Pacific, the DSL rises significantly around Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension, while declines in the subpolar gyre. The DSL variation shows an out-of-phase relationship with the Sverdrup transport, indicating that the wind stress induced Sverdrup transport is generally responsible for the DSL variation. In the Southern Ocean, the DSL variation performs a belt-like pattern, it rises around 40°S zonal band, while declines in its southern side, this is related to the enhancement of westerly wind stress. In the North Atlantic, the DSL variation acts as a dipole mode, it rises in the north of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), and declines in the south. This dipole pattern can be also interpreted by the Sverdrup transport except in the northeast of the NAC, where the DSL rise is more affected by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Compared with the DSL, the steric sea level (SSL) rises in most of the ocean, and the thermosteric sea level (TSL) is the major contributor. Only in the Southern Ocean, the SSL descends. The decreased SSL is affected by the halosteric sea level (HSL), which is mainly attributed to the weakly increased salinity from 300m to the bottom. To some extent, the HSL also contributes to the SSL rise in the Pacific, this is caused by the seawater freshening and warming in the upper 1500m. However, in the Atlantic, the HSL declines, thus partly offsets the rising effect of the TSL. These opposite variations are associated with the weakened AMOC.

Detecting Processes Contributing to Interannual Halosteric and Thermosteric Sea Level Variability

Abstract On interannual time scales, regional sea level variability is largely determined by changes in the steric component. The relation between the thermosteric and halosteric components is studied by separating the components into contributions from the mixed layer and, below the mixed layer, into the part that is related to isopycnal motion and that contributes to the steric sea level and the inactive part related to changes of spiciness. The decomposition provides a simple diagnostic to detect and understand physical mechanisms leading to regional sea level changes. In most areas of the world’s oceans, steric sea level variability is dominated by the contribution from isopycnal motion to the thermosteric sea level while halosteric variability relates more to spiciness. Because of the salinity minimum at middepth, different spatial salinity gradients above and below the minimum lead to opposing contributions and thus to a small contribution from isopycnal motion to the halosteric sea level. In nonpolar regions, both active components oppose each other, rendering the thermosteric variability larger than the steric variability. In the Arctic, the variability of both components is governed by spiciness in the Eurasian Basin and isopycnal motion in the Amerasian Basin.

The genesis of sea level variability in the Barents Sea

The regional variability of sea level is an integral indicator of changing oceanographic conditions due to different processes of oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial origin. The present study explores the nature of sea level variability in the Barents Sea—a marginal shelf sea of the Arctic Ocean. A characteristic feature that distinguishes this sea from other Arctic shelf seas is that it is largely ice free throughout the year. This allows continuous monitoring of sea level by space-borne altimeters. In this work we combine satellite altimetry, ocean gravity measurements by GRACE satellites, available hydrography data, and a high-resolution ocean data synthesis product to estimate the steric and mass-related components of sea level in the Barents Sea. We present one of the first observational evidence of the local importance of the mass-related sea level changes. The observed 1–3 month phase lag between the annual cycles of sea level in the Barents Sea and in the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Iceland, Greenland seas) is explained by the annual mass-related changes. The analysis of the barotropic vorticity budget shows that the mass-related sea level variability in the central part of the Barents Sea is determined by the combined effect of wind stress, flow over the varying bottom topography, and dissipation, while the impact of vorticity fluxes is negligible. Overall, the steric sea level has smaller amplitudes and mainly varies on the seasonal time scale. The thermosteric sea level is the main contributor to the steric sea level along the pathways of the Atlantic inflow into the Barents Sea. The relative contribution of the halosteric sea level is dominant in the southeastern, eastern, and northern parts of the Barents Sea, modulated by the seasonal sea ice formation/melt as well as by continental runoff. The variability of the thermosteric sea level in the Barents Sea is mostly driven by variations in the net surface heat flux, whereas the contribution of heat advection becomes as important as the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange at interannual time scales.

The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level

SUMMARY It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water. The melting of floating ice in a global warming will cause the ocean to rise. If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm. The sliding of grounded ice into the sea, however, produces a mean water level rise in two parts; some of the rise is delayed. The first part, while the ice floats, is equal to the volume of displaced sea water. The second part, equal to 2.6 per cent of the first, is contributed as it melts. These effects result from the difference in volume of equal weights of fresh and salt water. This component of sea rise is apparently unrecognized in the literature to date, although it can be interpreted as a form of halosteric sea level change by regarding the displaced salt water and the meltwater (even before melting) as a unit. Although salinity changes are known to affect sea level, all existing analyses omit our calculated volume change. We present a protocol that can be used to calculate global sea level rise on the basis of the addition of meltwater from grounded and floating ice; of course thermosteric volume change must be added.

Regional Dynamic and Steric Sea Level Change in Response to the IPCC-A1B Scenario

AbstractThis paper analyzes regional sea level changes in a climate change simulation using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The climate change scenario builds on observed atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from 1860 to 2000, followed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate change scenario until 2100; from 2100 to 2199, GHG concentrations are fixed at the 2100 level. As compared with the unperturbed control climate, global sea level rises 0.26 m by 2100, and 0.56 m by 2199 through steric expansion; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. The model’s sea level evolves substantially differently among ocean basins. Sea level rise is strongest in the Arctic Ocean, from enhanced freshwater input from precipitation and continental runoff, and weakest in the Southern Ocean, because of compensation of steric changes through dynamic sea surface height (SSH) adjustments. In the North Atlantic Ocean (NA), a complex tripole SSH pattern across the subtropical to subpolar gyre front evolves, which is consistent with a northward shift of the NA current. On interannual to decadal time scales, the SSH difference between Bermuda and the Labrador Sea correlates highly with the combined baroclinic gyre transport in the NA but only weakly with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and, thus, does not allow for estimates of the MOC on these time scales. Bottom pressure increases over shelf areas by up to 0.45 m (water column equivalent) and decreases over the Atlantic section in the Southern Ocean by up to 0.20 m. The separate evaluation of thermosteric and halosteric sea level changes shows that thermosteric anomalies are positive over most of the World Ocean. Because of increased atmospheric moisture transport from low to high latitudes, halosteric anomalies are negative in the subtropical NA and partly compensate thermosteric anomalies, but are positive in the Arctic Ocean and add to thermosteric anomalies. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies is highly nonuniform among ocean basins, reaching deeper than 3000 m in the Southern Ocean, down to 2200 m in the North Atlantic, and only to depths of 500 m in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the twenty-first century.