Hail Damage Research Articles

Estimating The Maximum Value of Crop Hail Insurance Under Stochastic Yield and Price Risk

ABSTRACTThe objective of this article is to estimate the maximum value of crop hail insurance according to the financial extent of hail risk's impact on the enterprise in two regions, North West (low hail risk area) and Mpumalanga (high hail risk area). The difference in the cumulative probability distributions of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the margin after interest and tax in the event of hail and in the event of no hail will provide a graphic indication of the financial impact of hail. To determine if the decision maker is willing to pay in order to remove the impact of hail on the enterprise, the utility weighted risk premium (UWRP) must be calculated with the use of stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) analysis. The calculated maximum benefit (or UWRP) that the decision maker will receive through the elimination of hail will set the upper limit for the cost of crop hail insurance. The results indicate that hail does have a negative impact on the financial position of the farms in North West and Mpumalanga. The effect of hail risk in Mpumalanga is, however, more severe. The calculated maximum benefit (UWRP) from the elimination of hail damage in two regions is R83.50/hectare in North West and R708.70/hectare in Mpumalanga. The conclusion can thus be made that decision makers in both regions will be willing to pay for crop hail insurance, but much more so in Mpumalanga than in North West.

Lint Yield Compensatory Response to Main Stem Node Removal in Upland Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum)

AbstractHail storm damage to the cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) plants can destroy vegetative and reproductive structures, modify canopy architecture and impact lint yield. Field studies were conducted at University of Arizona Maricopa Agricultural Center in 2011, 2012 and 2013 to examine cotton plant architecture changes and compensatory growth in response to removal treatments of uppermost nodes on main stem (terminal bud removal, 2 node removal and 4 node removal) as simulation of hail damage at the node 2, 4, 8, 12, 16 and 24 growth stages. Main stem node removal caused significant decrease in leaf area and biomass, especially at early growth stages. However, significant lint yield reduction only occurred by removing 2 nodes at the node 4 stage and removing 4 nodes at the node 8 stage in 2011, removing terminal bud at the node 12 stage in 2012 and removing terminal bud, 2 nodes and 4 nodes at the node 8 stage in 2013. The lint yield reduction did not exceed 13 % in all three growing seasons. Yield loss due to main stem node removal was mainly compensated by increased boll number on the vegetative branches at early growth stages and on fruiting branches at late growth stages. Yield compensation from vegetative branches increased with number of main stem nodes removed. This study suggests that the cotton crop has a strong compensatory ability to plant structure damage due to its indeterminate growth and longer growing season in the region.

Effect of the use of anti-hail nets on codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and organoleptic quality of apple (cv. Braeburn) grown in Alto Adige Region (northern Italy).

The anti-hail nets are widely used to protect apple fruit against hailstorms and hail damage. They can have also beneficial effects against pests in apple orchards, in particular codling moth (Cydia pomonella). However, covering the trees with anti-hail nets can modify the orchard microclimate and reduce the interception of light, thus potentially causing negative consequences on the organoleptic quality of apple fruits. A consistent reduction of the percentage of apple fruits infested by codling moth was registered as a result of the use of anti-hail nets during two consecutive harvest years. Their use did not affect fruit maturity, but reduced the skin colour, sugar content, pulp total phenol content, volatile compound composition and sensory characteristics. However, the results were inconsistent over the two years apart for total phenols, formation of two volatile compounds (butyl and hexenyl acetate, the first being one of the main odorants in most apple cultivars), sensory attributes of 'flavour of lemon' and 'juiciness'. For these parameters, the fruits from plots where the trees were not covered showed higher values than those from plots where anti-hail nets were used. The use of anti-hail nets was effective in preventing the attack of codling moth to apple fruits, suggesting their use in organic management where conventional insecticides are prohibited. Under the conditions tested, anti-hail nets showed a negative effect on some of the quality characteristics measured on apple fruits, which could influence consumer acceptability.

DIAGNÓSTICO DA QUALIDADE DE MAÇÃS NO MERCADO VAREJISTA BRASILEIRO

Este estudo foi realizado para analisar a qualidade e o preço de maçãs no mercado varejista brasileiro. Amostras de maçãs cv. Gala, Fuji e Red Delicious foram coletadas mensalmente entre março de 2010 e janeiro de 2011, em 20 supermercados de Curitiba, São Paulo, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro e Recife. Quatro supermercados de cada cidade foram previamente selecionados e definidos como locais de amostragem das maçãs ao longo dos 11 meses. A Categoria (escala 1 para máxima qualidade a 3 para mínima qualidade) das maçãs foi determinada pela análise da qualidade externa (coloração, severidade de danos fisiológicos, mecânicos, por fungos, insetos, granizo, etc.) de acordo com normas legais do MAPA. A categoria média das maçãs expostas nos supermercados aumentou ao longo do ano de 1,6 a 2,0 para ‘Gala’, de 1,8 a 2,4 para ‘Fuji’ e de 1,4 a 1,8 para ‘Red Delicious’. A perda da qualidade dos frutos no período, entre as datas de empacotamento e de exposição aos consumidores, foi evidente em todos os meses e cultivares. A depreciada qualidade externa das maçãs expostas nos supermercados foi associada a altas incidências de danos mecânicos e podridões, que variaram de 13 a 50% e 1 a 20%, respectivamente, dependendo da cultivar e do mês de análise. A firmeza da polpa das maçãs diminuiu de março a julho para níveis inferiores a 12 lb e então tendeu a aumentar a patamares de aproximadamente 14 a 15 lb de novembro a janeiro, dependendo da cultivar. Variações dos preços e da qualidade ao longo do ano indicaram que o preço das maçãs nas gôndolas dos mercados é mais influenciado pela sazonalidade ou pressão de oferta que pela qualidade das maçãs. O preço das maçãs variou entre as regiões de comercialização de forma similar para as três cultivares. Dados evidenciam que o tempo médio entre a data de embalagem dos frutos e sua exposição nas gôndolas dos mercados é de 17 e 28 dias para maçãs ‘Gala’ e ‘Fuji’, respectivamente.

Day-Ahead Hail Prediction Integrating Machine Learning with Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Models

Hail causes billions of dollars in losses by damaging buildings, vehicles, and crops. Improving the spatial and temporal accuracy of hail forecasts would allow people to mitigate hail damage. We have developed an approach to forecasting hail that identifies potential hail storms in storm-scale numerical weather prediction models and matches them with observed hailstorms. Machine learning models, including random forests, gradient boosting trees, and linear regression, are used to predict the expected hail size from each forecast storm. The individual hail size forecasts are merged with a spatial neighborhood ensemble probability technique to produce a consensus probability of hail at least 25.4 mm in diameter. The system was evaluated during the 2014 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program and compared with a physics-based hail size model. The machine-learning-based technique shows advantages in producing smaller size errors and more reliable probability forecasts. The machine learning approaches correctly predicted the location and extent of a significant hail event in eastern Nebraska and a marginal severe hail event in Colorado.

우박저항성과 관련된 감자품종의 줄기 특성

BACKGROUND: Recently, weather disasters such as hail and typhoon occur frequently. These threaten the stable cultivation of potatoes. It is very important to cultivate potatoes with stable under unexpected weather disasters. This study was performed to investigate the correlation between mophological characteristics of potato stem and its resistance to hail damage in different potato cultivars. METHODS AND RESULTS: Hail fall occurred for 8 minutes on May 31, 2012 in the field of Highland Agriculture Research Center located in Jinbu-myeon Gangwon-do. Potato crop grown in the field was affected by hail due to which the stems of potato were broken. The percentage of broken stem of potato was investigated as the level of damage by hail. To determine the difference in the ratio of broken stem among the potato cultivars, physical characteristics of potato stem such as diameter and hardness were measured. To evaluate recovery phase after hail damage, ground coverage and yield were measured. The percentage of broken stem of cv. Goun and cv. Saebong were 30%, 26%, respectively, whereas it was 5% in the cv. Atlantic. Damage by hail was the lowest in cv. Atlantic. Diameter of the stem was 15 mm in cv. Atlantic, 13 mm in cv. Goun and 11 mm in cv. Saebong. The hardness of potato cultivars was measured which was 74 N in cv. Atlantic. 71 N in cv. Goun and 59 N in cv. Saebong. The ground coverage in cv. Atlantic was 79%, which was the highest followed by 73% in cv. Saebong and 56% in cv. Goun. The yield of cv. Atlantic was monitored at 90 days after planting which was 40 MT/ha and that of cv. Saebong was 36 MT/ha, whereas in cv. Goun, it was 30 MT/ha which was the lowest. CONCLUSION: The ratio of broken stem in cv. Atlantic was the lowest compared to cultivars. In the physical characteristics of stem, cv. Atlantic was the highest in value of diameter and hardness. Based on these results, it was considered that cv. Atlantic was resistant to hail damage compared to other cultivars.

Terminal velocities and kinetic energies of natural hailstones

AbstractThe physical properties of 2295 hailstones that developed in Great Plains (US) storms were measured, including their maximum dimension, mass, and cross‐sectional area. Using these data, size‐dependent relationships for their terminal velocities and kinetic energies are developed. These relationships can be used in weather forecast modeling and hail damage prediction and assessment. When hailstones are assumed to be spherical, their terminal velocities and kinetic energies are in agreement with what has been reported in previous studies. When non‐sphericity is considered, which is the case for natural hail, the terminal velocities and kinetic energies are, on average, lower than those of spheres of the same maximum diameter, but can be larger.

Convective Storm Vulnerability: Quantifying the Role of Effective and Well-Enforced Building Codes in Minimizing Missouri Hail Property Damage

Implementing strong building codes is touted as a way to reduce natural disaster property damages. However, at the local level not all jurisdictions adopt equally stringent codes nor properly enforce their codes once they have been adopted. We empirically test whether zip code jurisdictions with effective and well-enforced building codes demonstrate better loss experience from the occurrence of a hail storm than those without. We model Missouri hail claim insurance data from 2008 to 2010. Our results consistently indicate that more favorable building codes do in fact matter in reducing hail damage on the order of 10% to 20%.

Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK

ABSTRACTHailstorms can pose a significant threat to society, by damaging property and disrupting livelihoods. An understanding of how hailstorm characteristics may change under a warming climate is therefore important for assessing the risk of hail damage for the insurance industry. A simple model of hailstone formation has been driven using meteorological data produced by a regional climate model (RCM) to project how hailstorm numbers and hailstone sizes could change during the 21st century in the UK. Evaluation of the modelled hailstone sizes, numbers and spatial distributions showed that they agreed reasonably well with observations. The effect of climate change on the numbers of damaging hailstorms in the UK (hailstones with diameters greater than 15 mm) was then investigated. A downward trend in the total number of damaging hailstorms during the 21st century was projected, with statistically significant trends for hailstones with diameters between 21 and 50 mm. Melting of hailstones made little contribution to the projected reductions. The results are subject to large uncertainties, some of which originate with the convective parameterization scheme used by the climate model.

Physical Analysis of Hail Fall Risk in Iran and the Consequent Damages on Agricultural Crops

Hail is a meteorological phenomenon that directly concerns to agricultural sector in Iran. Hailstorms affect crop yield that depends on the crop species and the phonological time. In this investigation, climatological study of hail fall has been performed through the available dataset in 118 synoptic stations across the country during a period of 20 years (1985-2004) and hail event map was drawn. After analyzing the data and considering the produced maps, regarding the number of hail occurrence in the country, the following provinces respectively illustrate the highest annual mean of hail fall; Chaharmahal-e-bakhtiari, Ilam, Tehran and Kurdistan (about 4 times/yearly). In the next step, using the statistics of the agricultural insurance affairs during 1995-2005, cultivation areas damaged by hail fall in the farms of agricultural strategic products including; irrigated and rain fed wheat, grain, rice, cotton, sugar beet and potato have been studied, and then the classified maps of hail damage have been plotted for each province and crop. The produced maps indicate that most of the damaged area by hail fall has been related to irrigated wheat crop, with an annual average of 12690.8 hectares in the whole country, then the damaged crops were ordered respectively as following: rain fed wheat, sugar beet, potato, grain, cotton and rice.

Effects of Simulated Hail Events and Subsequent Fungicide Applications on Cranberry Fruit Rot Incidence and Yield.

Storms containing hail are a common occurrence in Wisconsin, with a few or many cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon) growers being affected every year. Growers usually apply fungicides immediately following hail events to prevent fruit rot, despite a lack of research to support this practice. We conducted field trials in 2010 and 2011 to address the question of whether applying fungicides to injured fruit reduces fruit rot incidence (% rotten fruit). Hail damage was simulated by forcibly projecting pea gravel into cranberry beds using a mist-blower sprayer modified for this purpose, and the fungicides azoxystrobin or copper hydroxide were applied to fruit immediately after applying gravel. Fruit rot incidence and yield were evaluated within 2 weeks prior to commercial harvest in late September and early October. Fruit rot incidence was greater (P ≤ 0.05) and yield was lower (P < 0.05) in plots treated with gravel than in the nontreated control plots in six of seven trials. Fungicides did not reduce fruit rot incidence (P ≥ 0.05) in gravel-treated plots compared to the nontreated control in six of seven trials. However, in a trial conducted on relatively immature berries, fruit rot incidence in gravel-treated plots treated with azoxystrobin was less (P = 0.0103) than fruit rot incidence in gravel-treated plots receiving no fungicide treatment. In that same trial, fruit rot incidence was not reduced (P = 0.1243) in gravel-treated plots treated with copper hydroxide compared to gravel-treated plots that were not treated with fungicide. Results suggest that under most circumstances, if cranberries are damaged by hail, it is unlikely that an application of fungicide will reduce the amount of fruit rot at the time of harvest.

Multi-sensor examination of hail damage swaths for near real-time applications and assessment

Severe thunderstorms occurred across portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri on 18 August 2011, resulting in several swaths of large hail that caused significant damage to crops toward the end of the growing season. Changes with time in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and truecolor imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Terra satellite identify the damaged area, with corroboration by available radar data. Higher resolution satellite imagery from the public and private sector further identify both damage and NDVI changes within individual fields of planted crops that are susceptible to hail damage. Similar imagery can be developed for near real-time applications seeking to identify crop-damage areas during the growing season.

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield response to simulated hail damage

Yield loss in potato damaged by hail is mainly caused by reduced leaf area and plant stand. A 2-year field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of simulated hail damage on potato yield. The treatments were six levels of defoliation (control, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100%) and five defoliation times (2, 5, 8, 11 and 14 weeks after emergence). The experiment was set up in a randomized block design with four replications, and the treatments were arranged as a factorial. From the perspective of yield loss, the most important time of defoliation, for mild and intense defoliation, respectively, were 8–11 and 5–11 weeks after emergence. The period between 5 and 8 weeks includes the stages of tuber initiation and tuber growth; the stages most sensitive to removal of aerial parts. Regardless of defoliation intensity, the production of small potatoes mostly occurred when defoliation occurred at 2 and 5 weeks. Plants were able to recover from any level of defoliation if it occurred at an early stage. In summary, yield reduction was little influenced by intensity of defoliation, but the timing of defoliation was evidently the most important factor.

Radar-based hail detection

Damaging hailstorms are rare but are significant meteorological phenomena from the point of view of economic losses in central Europe. Because of the high spatial and temporal variability of hail, the proper detection of hail occurrences is almost impossible using ground station reports alone. An alternate approach uses information from weather radars. Several algorithms that use single-polarisation radar data have been developed for hail detection. In the present study, seven algorithms were tested on well documented recent hail events from Czechia and southwest Germany from 2002 to 2011. The study aimed to find the optimal threshold values for the applications of these techniques over the Czech territory and for evaluating the climatology of hail events. The results showed that the Waldvogel technique and the NEXRAD severe hail algorithm were the most accurate methods for hail detection over the area of interest. A combined criterion was proposed based on a combination of previously tested techniques. The precision of this “combi-criterion” was demonstrated for a severe hail event. The abilities of the tested criteria to provide information about a hail-fall area distribution and hail damage risk over the Czech territory were shown and discussed.

Escala diagramática de quantificação de dano causado por granizo em folhas de girassol

O objetivo deste trabalho foi elaborar uma escala diagramática para a avaliação visual e quantificação do dano causado por granizo em folhas de girassol. O trabalho foi conduzido em área experimental em Santa Maria (RS) no ano agrícola 2008/2009, sendo o dano causado por um evento de granizo ocorrido na data de 08/01/2009, com as plantas de girassol no estádio de plena floração (R5.1) e com índice de área foliar medido de 2,2 m² m-2. Foram coletadas 243 folhas danificadas que antes da coleta tiveram seu perímetro redesenhado com o auxílio de folhas inteiras de formato similar. Após a determinação da porcentagem de área danificada, foram selecionadas imagens para compor a escala diagramática logarítmica. O teste da escala foi realizado por 10 diferentes observadores em 24 folhas sorteadas dentre as 243 coletadas. A acurácia e a precisão de cada avaliador foram determinadas por regressão linear simples entre o dano real e o estimado com o auxílio da escala diagramática, além destes, utilizou-se a Raiz do Quadrado Médio do Erro (RQME), o erro absoluto e o coeficiente de determinação (R²) da regressão linear. Verificou-se que a escala é adequada para observação de dano foliar por granizo.

Extreme hail day climatology in Southwestern France

The concentration of hail damage over a very few days of each warm season is a main characteristic of hail climatology in Southwestern France. The hailpad networks set up there in 1988 by the ANELFA hail prevention project have allowed the development of a new extreme hail day climatology which consists in examining the hail day data in the Atlantic region mainly under maritime conditions, and in the Pyrenean region, under continental and mountain influences. A pyramidal representation of each daily mean hailfall parameter (frequency per station, kinetic energy per hailfall, and kinetic energy per station), ranked by order of magnitude, allows a comparison of the mean and extreme values in the two regions, and reveals the strongest hail days in each one. During the 23-year period under study, 13 extreme situations (7 in the Atlantic region, 6 in the Pyrenean one) are highlighted, keeping the first three day ranking for each parameter. For each day, the synoptic situation, cell type, storm trajectories, and hail damages are examined, and numerical simulations with the WRF model, initialized by the CDAS/NCEP-NCAR reanalysis program, are considered.The study confirms that the Pyrenean region (20,000km2) has experienced the major hail situations, with record values of each parameter for the two regions. On the frequency record day (16 April 2007), 17% of the hailpad stations were impacted, and on the kinetic energy record day (16 July 2009), the total hailstone energy reached 33J/m2 per station. Two main types of synoptic situations have been identified according to the location of the pressure low generating the upper level flow, either near Portugal or near Ireland. A third type, with the pressure low above the Mediterranean, has been observed only once. The WRF-NMM simulations show that all the severe hailstorms that occurred in the twelve situations (one situation is common to both regions) developed in the areas where the mesoscale environment was characterized by a strong dynamical forcing and by high values of the low-level and deep shears. After calibration with this sample of extreme hail days, the WRF model appears promising for severe hail forecasting.

Variations in Rainfall and Insured Crop-Hail Losses Associated with Operational Cloud Seeding in South Dakota

A brief review of operational cloud seeding programs in South Dakota is given, followed by an evaluation on the basis of rainfalldata and insured crop-hail loss data for the years 1948-1978. All of the projects used silver iodide as the seeding agent, but a wide variety of generator types, seeding rates, and delivery methods was used. In years w.ith aircraft seeding over small areas, both rainfall and hail damage tended to be larger in target than in non-target counties. The data available do not show such a trend for years when ground-based generators were employed. In years when 40%or more of the state was seeded, the results for target and non-target counties becameindistinguishable in terms of both rainfall and crop hail damage. However, increases in the area included in cloud seeding programs, using either ground based or airborne generators, were associated with an apparent net hail suppression effect, extending over the entire state. The rainfall data do not display such a trend.

Long‐term trends of hail‐related weather types in an ensemble of regional climate models using a Bayesian approach

This paper investigates the long‐term variability of specific weather types that are associated with damaging hailstorms in Germany for past (1971–2000) and future (2011–2050) time periods. Forty large‐scale weather types are determined by the objective weather type classification scheme of German Weather Service. This scheme is applied to both reanalyses (ERA‐40) and eight different regional climate model (RCM) simulations. It is shown that the RCMs are able to approximately reproduce the distribution of weather type occurrences obtained from the reference of ERA‐40. Using additional insurance loss data, the weather types are further identified as hail‐related or hail‐unrelated. Hailstorms are neither captured comprehensively by existing observation systems nor can they be modeled reliably and the large‐scale weather types are here considered as proxies for hail occurrence. Four weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms show a slight increase both during the past and future period according to the RCM simulations. A novel statistical model is developed for the probabilistic prediction of the fraction of hail damage days conditional on the weather types. The model is Bayesian and uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. For the ERA‐40 reanalysis the model prediction agrees well with fraction of hail damage days observed in the insurance data. For most of the RCM projections, the statistical model predicts a slight increase in the number of hail days in the future (2031–2045), with relative changes between 7 and 15% compared to the period 1971–2000.

Recent trends and variabilities of convective parameters relevant for hail events in Germany and Europe

This study investigates whether any evidence can be found to support the occurrence of alterations in the hailstorm frequency in the last few decades (1978–2009) over Germany and Europe. Due to their local-scale extent and a lack of appropriate monitoring systems, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively over long periods by current observation systems. To overcome this constraint, we consider various convective indices and parameters (CPs) derived from soundings at 1200 UTC, and we evaluate which of them are appropriate for predicting hail damage days according to loss data from a building insurance company.Most of the CPs that rely on moisture at the near-surface layers exhibit a significant positive trend towards a higher convective potential. This finding applies to the 90% (10%) percentiles of the annual distribution and to the number of days that exceed (or fall below) a specific threshold, which is suitable for hailstorm prediction. Negative and, at most stations, insignificant trends of CPs that rely on moisture at higher levels or if the initial parameters of the lifting curve were mixed over the lowest layers can be attributed to inconsistency in the time series of the dew point. This in homogeneity is caused by changes in the instrumentation around the year 1990. The investigations show considerable spatial differences in the convective potential both in the mean and the trends, with a distinct north-to-south gradient and a less marked west-to-east gradient over Europe and Germany. The spatial distribution of the trends, however, is fairly consistent among the CPs that are based on the same principles.

Hail Swaths Observed from Satellite Data and Their Relation to Radar and Surface-Based Observations: A Case Study from Iowa in 2009

Abstract Several storms produced extensive hail damage over Iowa on 9 August 2009. The hail associated with these supercells was observed with radar data, reported by surface observers, and the resulting hail swaths were identified within satellite data. This study includes an initial assessment of cross validation of several radar-derived products and surface observations with satellite data for this storm event. Satellite-derived vegetation index data appear to be a useful product for cross validation of surface-based reports and radar-derived products associated with severe hail damage events. Satellite imagery acquired after the storm event indicated that decreased vegetation index values corresponded to locations of surface reported damage. The areal extent of decreased vegetation index values also corresponded to the spatial extent of the storms as characterized by analysis of radar data. While additional analyses are required and encouraged, these initial results suggest that satellite data of vegetated land surfaces are useful for cross validation of surface and radar-based observations of hail swaths and associated severe weather.