AbstractSequential aerial photographs of a small headwater catchment in the Waiapu basin, East Coast Region, North Island, New Zealand, were interpreted to measure and analyse temporal changes in active area of gullies and gully complexes for a longer time span (1939–2003) and with higher temporal resolution compared to previous studies. We focus on the conditions leading to the development of gullies and gully complexes under pasture and forest by using topographic thresholds (slope–area relationships) of catchments for the initiation of gullies and gully complexes. In addition, the influence of two different lithologies as well as the occurrence of major rainfall events was related to gully activity.Twenty gullies and four gully complexes (occupying 62·5 ha or 12·5 per cent of the catchment area) occurred in the study catchment between 1939 and 2003. However, the majority of these were not active at all of the dates studied. Gullies developed in the sandstone‐dominated Tapuwaeroa Formation tended to attain their maximum size by 1957 with a mean catchment area of 2·1 ha. Gullies developed in mudstone of the Whangai Formation attained their maximum size in 1939 with a mean catchment area of 4·31 ha. Exceptions are gullies which developed into mass movement deposits or into an earth flow deposit as well as gullies developed under indigenous forest. Topographic threshold values for gullies under pasture and indigenous forest show that values for gullies under forest plot far above the threshold line of gullies under pasture, indicating that the topographical threshold for gully development under forest is higher compared to under pasture. A threshold value of 9·4 ha in catchment area is needed for the development of gully complexes under pasture, all located in the Whangai Formation and with the same orientation as the strike of the mudstones. Gully‐complex area and dominance of mass‐movement erosion increased with larger catchment area. A decreasing distance to the threshold line for gullies under pasture indicates a later development for gully complexes. No gully complexes developed under indigenous forest, indicating that the threshold value for gully‐complex development is higher than for gully complexes under pasture and was not reached in the study area.A model of shifting topographical threshold for gully development for a given catchment is developed which depends on land use. When a catchment has an indigenous forest cover the topographical threshold is very high. After conversion to pasture, threshold values decrease drastically. With the invasion of scrub, the threshold slowly increases and returns to a similar level to that under indigenous forest after reforestation.Development of gullies and gully complexes is a highly dynamic phenomenon, and phases of expansion and inactivity indicate that models describing only unidirectional advancing stages without periods of inactivity are not suitable. Therefore, this study adds more phases to models of gully and gully‐complex development in the East Coast Region. The threshold line for gully initiation under pasture and a value of 9·4 ha in catchment area for gully‐complex initiation permits one to predict which catchments, under similar environmental settings, develop gullies and gully complexes on a physical basis. This enables land managers to implement sustainable land‐use strategies to reduce erosion rates of gullies and gully complexes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.