Gulf Cooperation Council Member States Research Articles

The Past, Present, and Future of Gulf Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments in China

AbstractThis article explores sovereign wealth fund investments by Gulf Cooperation Council member states in China's equity market. Using data from Chinese stock exchanges, we analyze patterns of shareholding over two decades, across different sectors and among distinct funds, and compare them to their non‐Gulf counterparts. We reveal a gradual upward trajectory in both the scale and diversity of investments by Gulf funds, indicating growing engagement with the Chinese equity market. We anticipate a continuation of current trends, albeit with larger volumes and potential expansions into technological and emerging sectors that align with Gulf interests. We project that the deepening financial linkages between China and the Gulf could give rise to a mini petro‐yuan system operating under the dominance of the American dollar. This does not presage a transformation in China‐Gulf relations but should be understood within the increasing complexity of their broader economic ties. The article is part of a special issue examining the responses of Gulf countries to rising Sino‐American competition, edited by Andrea Ghiselli, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, and Enrico Fardella.

The China–GCC Partnership in Security, Energy, and Infrastructure

ABSTRACT: China’s growing global ambitions are increasingly shaping the Arab Gulf region, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council member states (GCC): Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Given the geopolitical and strategic importance of the region to the global community and China’s growing role in the region, relations between China and the GCC are of paramount importance. This article sheds light on China’s role in the GCC region. Based on the three fields of (security) political cooperation, energy partnership, and economic cooperation as well as infrastructure projects, the motives and interests of the actors for cooperation are highlighted. Both sides are pursuing a hedging strategy. Given its energy demand, China is interested in regional stability and prioritizes this in its 1+2+3 framework. Political and military power is used to a minimum. As oil exporters, the GCC states depend on the Chinese energy market and are attempting to use it to drive their desired economic diversification and modernization. The great power rivalry gives the Gulf states greater flexibility to adapt their foreign policy when it comes to choosing pragmatic alliances to achieve.

Unlocking the Synergy: ICT, Global Trade, and Growth in the GCC Region - A Panel-Causality Analysis

This study investigates the intricate relationship between Information and Communication Technology (ICT), global trade, and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region over the period 1990–2022. The study Utilize a panel data framework covering the GCC member states over a significant time span, and employing an advanced econometric technique to assess the causal and cointegrated relationships among these key variables. Three tests, [1], [2], [2] Cointegration tests are applied to check for Cointegration. Additionally, fully modified least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) will be used to test the magnitude of the long relationship among variables. The analysis integrates a comprehensive dataset that includes ICT indicators, trade flows, and macroeconomic variables, allowing for a robust examination of the synergy among these critical elements. The results reveal multifaceted relationships within the GCC context. While ICT is found to have a positive and significant impact on global trade and economic growth, the study also identifies bidirectional causality between ICT and global trade, indicating a reinforcing loop. Furthermore, evidence suggests that global trade plays a pivotal role in enhancing ICT diffusion within the region. The findings of this paper have several ramifications. First, they highlight the necessity for GCC governments to give priority to digitization and ICT infrastructure development activities in order to promote international commerce and economic diversification. Second, Policymakers should also consider crafting trade policies that facilitate the exchange of ICT-related goods and services, further fostering economic growth.

Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence

Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence

Systemic Change and Regional Orders: Asian Responses to a Gulf in Transition

ABSTRACT The Persian Gulf regional security complex is shaped by intense competition between regional states and, since the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm, US military preponderance. US security cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council member states has sustained a status quo that has allowed extra-regional countries to advance their interests without making significant contributions to regional stability. An examination of the presence of five Asian countries (China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) in the Gulf suggests that, as the US signals intentions to reduce its security commitments to the region, the perception of hegemonic retreat will influence the regional policies adopted by these Asian countries. A further and related consideration is the ‘great-power competition’ narrative that is driving politics at the systemic level. The US-China bilateral relationship will have a significant impact on extra-regional powers’ approach to the Gulf.

The Impact of Fiscal Support Measures and the Changing Tax Administration during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

This article aims to explain the various fiscal stimulus and tax policies introduced by the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and which caused disruption to several economic sectors, specifically the financial services sector, in order to address the ultimate goal of limiting the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and support economic recovery.

Are Islamic banks more resilient to the crises vis-à-vis conventional banks? Evidence from the COVID-19 shock using stock market data

The debate regarding the performance of Islamic banks vis-à-vis conventional counterparts has attracted growing attention recently. Exploiting the Covid-19 health and economic crisis as an exogenous shock, we extend this debate by examining the resilience of Islamic banks vis-à-vis conventional banks during this shock. Using data from the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, we find stock market investors have not assessed the Islamic banks to be superior to conventional ones during the Covid-19 market meltdown. Specifically, our findings show Covid-19 confirmed cases, government social distancing policies and feverish period (i.e., 24 February to 17 March 2020) have had negative impact on stock returns of both Islamic and conventional banks alike. Interestingly, the adverse impact of social distancing policies is stronger on Islamic banks due to their inherent higher cost structure. Additionally, we find the marginal adverse impact of Covid-19 shock is weaker on banks with higher liquid assets holdings on the onset of the Covid-19 shock. Moreover, larger banks were hit harder during the first quarter of 2020, however, they also recovered more quickly during the second quarter. Results are robust with alternative estimation methods, matched sample of Islamic and conventional banks, cross-sectional analysis with fever period and extended sample period.

Revisiting the Development of China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Relations under the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) established bilateral cooperation in 1971, and the two countries’ political, economic, and commercial connections have grown since then. China and the United Arab Emirates are key economic partners, and bilateral ties have grown to this day. Since the signing of the People’s Republic of China and GCC Member States’ 2014-2017 Strategic Dialogue Plan, the release of the Third Round Press Communication of the PRC-GCC Strategic Dialogue, and the signing of the 16 China-UAE Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in 2015 at the China-UAE Economic Forum held in Beijing, the two countries’ relationship has grown even closer. The authors seek to explain how China leverages its long-standing partnership with the UAE into diplomatic relations in order to strengthen economic connections and commercial cooperation between the two countries. This form of study employs qualitative research methodologies as well as primary and secondary data sources. The goal of this research is to find out what the two nations are doing to enhance their economies through trade connections by employing library research methodologies. In terms of data analysis approaches, the author follows three steps: preparing and organizing data, decreasing data, and finally presenting data.

The Role of Gulf Cooperation Council in Conflict Management, 1981–2019: A Comparative Study

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is considered one of the most important regional organizations in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, which effectively solves some of the crises in the sub-region and the wider Middle East. GCC has employed many diplomatic procedures to address regional crises, including mediation, negotiation, and arbitration. Undoubtedly, GCC has successfully resolved some intrastate conflicts, particularly border conflicts among its member states. However, despite these achievements, the GCC has failed to resolve several regional disputes, and the continuation of such crises threatens the region’s security and stability. This article seeks to explore why the GCC institutions are ineffective in resolving some regional crises. In doing so, it addresses the comparative study by focusing on two case studies (the Iraq–Iran War and the ongoing Yemen Crisis) and provides three main results: first, the GCC has not directly intervened as an institution to resolve certain disputes; however, some GCC members have acted on its behalf and represented it. Second, despite the GCC member states’ efforts, they are still unable to resolve and settle some disputes because they prioritize self-interest over collaboration. Third, the conflict of interest of various regional actors contributes to the lack of significant progress in resolving crises.

COVID-19 in the Gulf Cooperation Council Member States: An Evidence of Effective Response.

ObjectivesThe World Health Organization (WHO) published a global strategic response plan in February 2020 aiming to mitigate the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. It identified immediate activities required for global preparedness and response to the outbreak and set eight priority areas (pillars) essential for scaling up countries’ operational readiness and response. Despite a semi-annual progress report on implementing the Global Strategic Plan in June 2020, there is limited granular information available on the extent of the national plan’s content and implementation, particularly in the Member States of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Therefore, we sought to review the preparedness and responsiveness towards the COVID-19 outbreak in the GCC in the first phase of the pandemic and to document lessons learned for improving the ongoing response efforts and preparedness for future pandemics.MethodsA rapid appraisal was conducted in June 2020 according to the WHO Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan and the accompanying Operational Planning Guidelines. The survey was administered to public health professionals or/and infectious disease experts in the states. The findings were cross-triangulated with secondary data that was publicly available for each country.ResultsThe preparedness and response efforts of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were fully compliant with all 11 (100%) pillars of the modified strategic response measures. Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar complied with eight of the pillars. The component on conducting COVID-19 related research was the lowest-performing across all the six states.ConclusionsAll GCC states demonstrated an effective response to the pandemic, enhanced existing infrastructures, and accelerated reforms that would have otherwise taken longer. The lessons learned through the early phase of the pandemic continue to steer the states in realigning their strategies and resetting their goals of controlling the outbreak, particularly in the current context of vaccine introduction and increasing preparedness capacities for future pandemics.

The al-Ula GCC Summit: An End to Gulf Rivalry or Mere Truce?

Three-and-a-half-years into the crisis that struck the heart of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the 41st Gulf Summit, held on January 5, 2021, in the Saudi city of al-Ula, brought the blockade of Qatar to an end. The summits final communiqué stated that the GCC member states will “stand together as one to confront any threat to the security of the block” and prevent any “violation of sovereignty of any member state.”1 According to the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, “points of disagreement with Qatar have been solved.”2 The Saudi minister declined to give more details on the compromises the two sides may have agreed on and the timeframe for their implementation. Lack of enthusiasm in the state-owned media on both sides of the fence suggests, however, that the agreement will merely return the relationship between the parties to the pre-June 5, 2017 position. So far, the two sides blame COVID-19 for ‘social distancing.’ Trade has not been fully resumed and cross-borders movement of goods and peoples remain low. It is assumed that cold peace is likely to prevail until the two sides re-establish mutual trust, which was badly damaged, especially at the level of the heads of states.

The British Council’s role in nourishing the English language teaching industry in the Gulf Cooperation Council region: a visual social semiotic perspective

ABSTRACT Although the interlocking of the British Council with wider political and economic activities and interests is well documented in some parts of the world (Pennycook, A. 2017. The Cultural Politics of English as an International Language. New York: Pearson; Phillipson, R. 2017. “Myths and Realities of ‘Global’ English.” Language Policy 16 (3): 313–331; Rapatahana, V., and P. Bunce. 2012. English Language as Hydra: Its Impacts on Non- English Language Cultures. Bristol: Multilingual Matters), precious little has been written on how the British Council is constructing the reality of the English language as an ‘unstoppable juggernaut’ (Demont-Heinrich, C. 2007. “The Ideological Construction of the Juggernaut of English: A Critical Analysis of American Prestige Press Coverage of the Globalisation of Language.” Studies in Language and Capitalism 2: 107–144) in parts of the Arab world. This paper scrutinizes the ways through which the British Council is nourishing the highly acclaimed English Language Teaching industry in the six member Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. This issue will be explored through visual social semiotics analysis of nine videos that were published on the British Council’s six websites of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states to promote various courses and programs in the region.

The Constitutional Framework of International Law in the Gulf: Ratification and Implementation of International Treaties in GCC Constitutions

Abstract This article investigates how ratification and implementation of international treaties are regulated in GCC Constitutions and how these regulations currently operate. First, it considers the models of internal/international law relations that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Constitutions espouse. Second, it then reviews ratification procedures and practices. Finally, it examines alternative options to guarantee implementation. Shifting the focus away from conventional court implementation mechanisms, the article argues that internal accountability mechanisms of executives might guarantee a more effective enforcement of international treaties in the GCC Member States.

Analysing the comparative advantages of the international oil trade: the case of Gulf Cooperation Council

Several studies have investigated the competitiveness with a focus placed on the Middle East, however, there are relatively few to pay attention specifically on the comparative advantages in oil trade. This paper utilizes the Balassa indices to shed light on the general tendencies and specific shifts in revealed comparative trade advantage of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states in main oil products between years 2000 and 2015. Based on our result, only four out of six GCC member states (Kuwait, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar) were found to possess an initial competitive status for at least one oil product. A tendency of generally diminishing comparative advantage in oil trade for the GCC group was revealed as a consequence of economic, financial, political reasons, including the aftermath of the financial crisis, regional instability, the Syrian conflict, fluctuating international oil prices.

Smart Grid Technologies in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Challenges and Opportunities

There are structural shift in electricity markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, in both supply and demand industries. Therefore, the GCC member states need to develop new models for electricity supply and demand in order to adapt to these changes. Although, it requires huge capital investment and significant reforms to achieve this goal, however, in the long run, it is worth it. The countries in the region may need to privatize their government power industries, encourage competitive markets instead of monopolies, diversify electricity generation from fossil fuel based system by integrating renewable energy sources in mix generation and transform regulated electricity prices to liberalized electricity prices. The penetration of renewable energy into existing grid networks in the GCC region, is an economical way to diversify the electricity mix in the region and create an avenue for the implementation of smart grid technologies. Solar and wind power are the most common renewable sources in the region. The smart grid technology enables multi-directional flows, control of electricity and information in a wide distributed network, hence, could be referred to as the next generation of power grids. The traditional power grids could be made smart by making them communicate, sense, control and applying intelligence. Therefore, the smart grid technologies give room for effective compatibility and optimization of variables of the power grid for optimal generation, transmission and distribution system. This paper presents some of the challenges and opportunities in the implementation of smart grid technologies in the GCC region. The opportunities of smart grid implementation in the GCC region outweigh the challenges that could arise. The paper also addresses electricity consumption, interconnection grid of the GCC members, concepts of traditional and smart grid network, including renewable energy penetration in the GCC region. Â Â

The EU, Middle Eastern powers and milieu-shaping in the ‘shared’ Arab Mediterranean neighbourhood: a story of mutual neglect

ABSTRACTThe EU and the six Gulf Cooperation Council member states have been engaged in milieu-shaping in their shared Arab Mediterranean neighbourhood. This article argues that this engagement has taken place in a disconnected way rather than in a coordinated fashion. The majority of GCC countries have been guided by neo-realist considerations with a focus on short- and mid-term gains and occasional recourse to hard power. In contrast, the EU, through its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), has long tried to circumvent geopolitics by focusing on long-term normative milieu-shaping, drawing on a mix of normative soft power tools. However, since the 2015 ENP review, this ambition is no longer central to EU foreign policy considerations. Instead, EU milieu-shaping goals are increasingly underpinned by neo-realist-inspired security concerns. Thus, an interest-based convergence between the EU and GCC countries is emerging in so far as also the EU is regarding its neighbourhood increasingly less through the prism of normative objectives. Yet, as will be demonstrated, and despite the EU's growing awareness for the necessity of cooperating with other powers in addressing an unstable neighbourhood, this convergence is unlikely to generate a shift from mutual neglect to systematic collaboration between the parties in their shared neighbourhood.

Accomplishments and challenges in tobacco control endeavors – Report from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

ObjectivesTo review the tobacco governance and national responsibility for control, and existing countering measures to reduce the tobacco use among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states.MethodsWe reviewed the data in regards to tobacco control efforts and difficulties encountered during implementation of the policies for all the GCC member states from the respective country profile in the WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic. Also, we utilized the measures outlined in the FCTC’s MPOWER package to not only assess the degree of national commitment, but also compare it against the level of significance that the legislatures give to this matter.ResultsWe observed that there have been genuine advancements towards tobacco control in the GCC member states over the past few years. All the countries except Bahrain have national offices committed to tobacco control and 5 nations (excluding Oman) have dedicated support services for smoking cessation accessible to the general public. Similarly, majority of the member states have implemented a national-level ban on tobacco advertisement through national media cells as well as free dissemination of marketing material.ConclusionApplication and implementation of measures outline in the MPOWER package, formulation and enforcement of sturdy laws on tobacco control, and development of infrastructure and trained workforce are fundamental to manage and reinforce tobacco control measures in the GCC region.

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and the Global Land Grab

A rapid increase in large-scale land acquisitions associated with the food-commodity price spike in 2008 resulted in a flurry of journalistic, non-governmental organization, and academic publications. One of the primary narratives that emerged was that oil-rich Gulf states were driving a “land grab” from resource-poor countries. However, little was known about who was making deals and where. This article assesses the extent to which the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are, in fact, primary players. We first compare the total number of deals and land areas involved, finding that individual GCC member states have been relatively minor players compared to the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Singapore, and Malaysia—each of whom, moreover, finalized more deals than all the GCC countries put together. We next compare the geographic distribution of acquisitions, comparing the trends for GCC member states with those of the major investing countries, and assess which countries have ac...

An economic analysis of sustainability of a potential GCC economic and monetary union during 2005-2014

Purpose – Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was set up in 1981 between Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait for strengthening cooperation and economic development in the region. The GCC has made strides towards economic consolidation by forming a customs union and a common market. The long-term vision is to create an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with a single currency. Progress towards the EMU has been slow and the recent oil price plunge has led to concerns regarding sustainable growth of member countries due to their significant dependence on oil and lack of diversification. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the scope of an EMU in the GCC against the backdrop of current oil crisis and examine sustainability of such a union. The paper studies convergence criteria similar to the ones followed by the accession countries of the European EMU in the 1990s preceding the introduction of the single currency Euro. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws its practical approach from the experience of the European Monetary Union, though the original idea of the single currency in Optimum Currency Areas was conceived by Mundell (1961). The present paper analyses macroeconomic time-series variables (e.g. GDP, budget deficits, debt, growth rates, inflation rates, exchange rates) for GCC during the period 2005-2014. Data has been sourced from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases to study the convergence criteria adopted by the EMU countries for the introduction of the Euro. Findings – The paper concludes that GCC economies are similar in terms of their structural and economic fundamentals. Most elements of the convergence criteria that were followed by the accession countries in Europe are fulfilled by the GCC member states, particularly during 2011-2014. The GCC states look similar in terms of sustainable growth, price stability and exchange rate stability – three aspects of convergence met by the European Union states. However, heavy dependence on oil and lack of diversification from oil and hydrocarbon-related products in the gross domestic product (GDP) composition of GCC states pose severe risks to the potential union. Fiscal vulnerabilities of these economies to oil price shocks, such as the current oil price crisis, create concerns for such a union during oil price lows. Widely divergent fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratios and rising debt-to-GDP ratios during periods of low oil prices imply the lack of sound and unsustainable public finances for some of the GCC states. The divergence has stemmed from widely different break-even oil prices for government budgets within the GCC and also due to varying degrees of oil dependencies between the member states. The scope of a successful and more sustainable EMU can be further explored once the GCC economics have achieved adequate diversity from oil. Originality/value – The study is useful to policy makers, central banks, businesses and researchers since it highlights the EMU as a feasible option for the GCC states. The sustainability of the EMU is contingent on diversification of these economies in the future from oil and oil-related products. The study can be utilized by policy makers as a strategy to further restructure GCC economies towards greater resilience and integration prior to accession to the GCC EMU.

The Constitutionalisation of Free Trade in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The past two decades have witnessed a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). This article considers the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (or Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)) as it investigates the claim that RTAs constitutionalise the norm of free trade in supranational jurisdictions. The article suggests that the GCC Member States should take several major initiatives in order to enhance and strengthen their economic integration. They must now fasten their historically slow pace of economic integration and adhere to the time frame for economic and monetary union. The GCC Member States should learn from the experience of the European Union (EU) and transfer greater levels of national sovereignty to the GCC.