Export Growth Rate Research Articles

Export Performance of Palmarosa oil in India: A Growth and Instability Analysis

The present study attempts to examine the annual and compound growth rate in the export of Palmarosa oil. The time-series data for a period of 2000-20 was analyzed by using a growth model. Quantitative analysis was used to perform descriptive statistics, linear and exponential, and quantum change estimation using exclusively secondary data. The results revealed that the compound growth rate (CGR’s) of export of Palmarosa oil was statistically significant at a 1 percent probability level. The quantity export compound growth rate was 22.33 percent per annum, and exported value was 39.17 percent per annum. The maximum and positive to negative annual growth rate of the export of Palmarosa oil during the entire study period and instability have been directly related to each other. Though, Palmarosa oil export achieved more stable values followed by quantity. The top three countries USA, France, and Spain, recorded significant imports (quantity and value) of Palmarosa oil from India. The result also reveals that the most significant change in quantity export increase was more prominent in Spain, and value export increased in Australia during 2019-20 over the previous year.

Export Performance of Basmati Rice from India: An Economic Analysis

India is the leading exporter of Basmati rice in the global market. The present study was undertaken to determine the growth and instability of basmati rice exports from India. The present study was solely based on secondary sources compiled from APEDA for 20 years, from 1999-00 to 2018-19. Growth in export was analysed by employing an exponential model and determining the compound growth rate over the period. The coefficient of variation and CII was used to assess the instability in the export of basmati rice. The study revealed that the export growth rate was positive and statistically significant during the overall study period. Country-wise analysis of export performance reported that Iran and Iraq showed the highest growth trend. In contrast, the U.K. instability analysis observed the lowest growth which indicated that the export quantity and export earnings witnessed higher instability in the overall period. CII reported the highest variation in the export value of basmati rice.

Remittances and trade balance: A new transfer problem

Remittances are an important inflow of funds in many developing economies. These remittances relate to the classic 'transfer problem' and hence likely affect the exchange rate. In this paper, I find that remittances have a significant negative impact on trade balances and that the driving force is the exchange rate. Additionally, I find that remittance has a positive impact on trade openness, and hence decrease in the trade balance is because the growth rate of imports is higher than the growth rate of exports.

A Comparative Analysis of the Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement on the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in North and Southern Africa

COVID-19 has forced many governments to take emergency health measures which are undermining productive capacities and disrupting global supply chains. Southern and Northern Africa have been heavily impacted by such measures. According to UNCTAD statistics (2021), the average annual growth rate of exports in Northern and Southern Africa fell by 27.61% and 6.96%, respectively in 2020. Yet, the effective operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) could have limited some of the pandemic’s economic impacts. Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper first analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact and then assesses the ability of the AfCFTA to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. The simulation results show that the AfCFTA would mitigate the economic impact in Southern and Northern Africa. It reduces the decline in intra-regional exports by 7.87 percentage points in 2021. The study emphasizes the need to remove non-tariff barriers to amplify potential positive effects.

The Export Competitiveness of the Korean IT Industry against the EU

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trade structure and competitiveness of the Korean information technology (IT) industry in comparison to that of the EU. Design/Methodology/Approach Indices such as the trade specialization index (TSI), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and the export growth rate were used. Furthermore, this study analyzes the trade competitiveness of Korea vis-à-vis that of the EU region using an adjusted methodology. Findings The results showed that Korea’s IT industry exhibited export competitiveness relative to that of the EU, and it was improved in 2019 compared to 2014. The competitiveness of each industry-related item improved in the following order: broadcasting apparatus, communication apparatus, information apparatus, and parts. Specifically, the competitiveness of electro-mechanical components and passive components have greatly improved. Research Implications Most studies aggregate analyses of export competitiveness using methodologies such as TSI, RCA, and market share. However, this method of analysis often results in different results if the competitiveness of an industry is disaggregated and analyzed by item. Therefore, this study analyzes the export competitiveness of the Korean IT Industry using an adjusted methodology. The results show that the academic and policy implications of these changes in the IT industry will be useful.

What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis

The sustained current account deficit in any country has an important implication for policy. If it continues, then it suggests that the regime ought to have no motivation to avoid or to diminish its international debt. In this paper, we test empirically the relationship among current account deficit and different macroeconomic variables by using panel Logit model. Therefore, we focus on the MENA countries during the years of 1980-2017. We built an econometric model to analyse the contribution of the real GDP, unemployment rate (UR), consumer price index (CPI), export growth rate (EGR), import growth rate (IGR), public expenditures (PE), and foreign trade rate (FTR) on current account deficit (CAD). We established that only the following exogenous variables: GDP, UR, PE and FTR have a positive and significant effect on the current account deficit. This outcome may support governments to identify the best time for investment and business strategies by observing the evolution of the performance of higher temporal hierarchy industries.

Current stage of higher education internationalization: new characteristics, world leaders and challenges for Russia

At its present stage of internationalization of education, its architecture and forms have changed. The study of these aspects requires an integrated approach. Increasing the volume of exports of educational services remains a priority for Russia, which, according to the authors, does not realize its educational export potential sufficiently. The purpose of the article is to reveal the features of the current stage of internationalization of higher education through the compilation of its complex characteristics by a set of cross-sections, to interpret the calculations obtained in a new way, to identify new facts and factors affecting the development trend and to develop proposals for Russia as an exporter of educational services. The main sources used were the statistical databases of the WTO, the EEC of the EAEU. Analytical approach, comparative and statistical analysis were used. As a result, the authors found confirmation of the continuing trend of growth in global spending on education, the volume of investments in the global market of educational services, an increase in the number of foreign students, and the preservation of Russia's share in the number of foreign students. The authors also identified new characteristics of the global educational services market, such as: the acceleration of the growth rate of global exports of educational services, the decline in the share of the United States and the growth of the share of the UAE in the global educational services market, the transformation of Asian countries from donors to recipient countries of educational services.

PRODUCTION AND TRADE OF CHICKPEA (CICER ANEITYUM) IN INDIA AND MYANMAR

Chickpea is an important legume crop in India and Myanmar. Production remained stagnant in both countries until 2000 (Period-I, II, and III) and increased late after 2010 (Period-IV and V). The highest productivity was recorded in 2018-19 (1041 kg/ha in India and 1478 kg/ha in Myanmar). The growth rate of chickpea in India was found to be the highest in period-IV (4.32% in area, 5.99% in production and 1.60% in yield). Similarly, the growth rate of chickpea in Myanmar was the highest in the period-IV (7.57% in area, 13.59% in production, and 5.60% in yield) due to promotion of export markets, favorable prices in the domestic market and partly due to research and development in Department of Agricultural Research (DAR). Myanmar’s instability performance was higher than that of India in all decades except 2010-19. In the case of the import-export scenario, India is now producing sufficiently in domestic production while s, till the chickpea imports, are for processing and value-added products. Myanmar has exported chickpea to the rest of the world especially India (80%), Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. The growth rate of chickpea exports in India increased in the period 1988-2008 (79.33% in terms of quantity and 94.14% in terms of value) as the growth rate of imports was also increasing in the same period (15.97% in terms of quantity and 21.88% in terms of value). The growth rate of chickpea exports in Myanmar showed a decrease in all periods (-4.4%, - 0.52% and -4.95%).

The role of commodity exports to economic growth in Ho Chi Minh City

In the period of development and international economic integration; Ho Chi Minh City's import and export of commodities has an important role in the city's economic growth. Export has really become a key factor and a strong motivation of economic growth. The export growth rate in the period 2011 - 2019 averaged 8.54% per year. Moreover, the scale and high growth rate of the city's export activities have a significant impact on the city's aggregate demand, stimulating increased consumption ands investment including domestic and foreign, thus boosting economic growth of the city. Export development is one of the pillars of Ho Chi Minh City `s sustainable economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to increase added value of commodities, focus on exporting products with competitive advantages and a sizable market share through participating in the global value chain. Therefore, based on the City's statistics and GRDP calculation from 2010 to 2020, this study points out some essential recommendations in order to improve the role of commodity export activities and the competitive products of Ho Chi Minh city in the future.

Profitability of Mexican Avocado Production in the Face of an Increase in Exports to the Canadian Market

Mexico is the main exporter of avocado in the world, while Canada is the seventh importer. To meet its domestic demand, Canada imports about 93.73% of avocados from Mexico. It is worth mentioning that, between 2003 and 2018, the average annual growth rate of Mexican avocado imports in Canada was 14.72%; while, from 2019 to 2021, this same rate averaged -4.65, that is, in this period Mexican avocado imports in Canada fell at an average annual rate of 4.65%. This research aims to determine the viability of increasing the annual growth rate of Mexican avocado exports to the Canadian market. To carry out the work, the avocado market between Mexico and Canada was represented in an econometric model and, with the results, a partial equilibrium analysis was carried out, simulating a 50% annual increase in exports. The results show that an increase in the amount of Mexican avocado exported to the Canadian market that results in an average annual growth rate of 50% is viable in terms of income. The simulation shows that the Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C R) in avocado production for the states of Jalisco, Michoacan and the State of Mexico, in the hypothetical scenario, would be 1.4831, 1.4257 and 1.5322 respectively.

Indo-China Trade Relationship in Last Quarter Century: An Empirical Analysis

Purpose: The study tries to find pattern in the bilateral trade and impact of macro happenings like GFC, Chinese meltdown, Galwan conflict, COVID-19 on it over the period of 1995 to 2020. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study has two dimensions. The first one analyses the monthly export and import figures between India and China product wise (based on HS Code at two-digit level) from Jan2016 to Jan 2021 whereas second one focus on annual data of Indo-China Export and Import along with their annual GDP for 26 years starting from 1994-1995 to 2019-2020. Bilateral trades are analysed by using four tools namely- Bilateral Trade Dependence Index (BTDI); Trade Intensity Index (TII); Herfindahl Hirschmann Market Concentration Index (HHI); and Index of Export market penetration (IEMP). The study has also used Time series analysis to find the relationship between total bilateral trade and GDP of respective countries using Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, and VAR model. Findings: The annual growth rate of import and export for India with China suggest the short-term impact of macro happenings. Research Limitations: The study has several limitations with respect to availability of very recent data, availability of cost components of trade items in respective countries etc. Managerial Implications: Policy makers for India are suggested to work towards import substitution via various programs like Make-in-India with priority of domestic productions of HS Code 85, 84, 29 which are increasing the trade deficit continuously. Originality/Value: This study is an original effort to highlight the dynamic bilateral trade relationships between India and China in last twenty-five years.

Analysis of the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to the EU market

The paper uses the gravity model and panel data to examine the determinants of Vietnam's export to the EU market during the 2007-2017 period. Vietnam is an export-oriented economy. In the context of international economic integration, Vietnam is one of the countries with a very high export growth rate. With a GDP of 18.82 trillion USD, a population of 512 million people (2017), the European Union (EU) is the world's largest economy and is Vietnam's second largest commodity import market. As a result, the urgent requirement from practice is to identify and quantify the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to the EU market and on that basis to give appropriate policy implications to boost exports to increase export turnover and gradually improve the economy. The article uses the Hausman-Taylor estimator for the optimal combination of Fixed-Effects (FE) and Random-Effects (RE) methods. The estimation results indicate that the determinants of Vietnam's export to the EU market include: aggregate population; aggregate GDP per capita; Vietnam's index of infrastructure and aggregate trade openness. Based on these findings, the paper suggests policies to boost Vietnam's export to the EU.

Analyzing the parameters of building the Russian capitalism

Subject. The article addresses the Russian capitalism. Objectives. The purpose is to identify parameters of building the Russian capitalism. Methods. The study draws on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The study revealed the parameters of building the Russian capitalism, like the structural balance of public administration, volatility in the growth rate of exports and imports of goods and services, a decrease in the growth rate of exports and imports of goods and services, net government lending and borrowing, GDP per capita, general government expenditure. The optimal cluster for building the Russian capitalism is the relationship between Russia and the United States in the context of GDP per capita in national currencies. The study expands the scope of knowledge and develops the competencies of the government of the Russian Federation to ensure the economic growth. Conclusions. The unveiled parameters of building the Russian capitalism, as well as understanding the reasons for the emergence of the Russian State capitalism as a form of merging of the American market economy and Chinese planned economy enable the government of the Russian Federation to effectively orient its actions towards economic growth.

A Case Study of Cashew Industry in Karnataka

Purpose: In the Indian food processing sector, the cashew nut processing industry plays a critical role. Often, the cashew is considered as ‘both a poor person’s crop and a rich person’s meal.’ From the cultivators, traders, wholesalers, processors to supermarkets and retailers, the cashew processing sector is a vital source of income. Cashew processing is a labour-intensive sector that has always employed a significant number of rural women. The purpose of this study is to gain an in-depth understanding of the Cashew Processing Sector, its position in the world market, issues it is confronting and future prospects. While doing so, the present study attempts to examine the profile of the Indian Cashew Industry, including cashew processing and international trade. The quality, flavour and appearance of the Indian cashew kernels are highly respected in other nations and are consumed in more than 60 countries worldwide. Unfortunately, it was found that cashew production in India has been fluctuating in recent years. Despite its tremendous expansion, India’s cashew sector has been affected by low-quality cashew cultivated in some regions, which is mostly due to improper harvesting techniques, inadequate drying of the nuts and insufficient storage and warehouse facilities for dried cashew nuts. Design: For the purpose of analysis, this study used secondary data sources - Google Scholar articles, cashew industry and other related websites. Moreover, the literature is used to analyse the position of the industry within SWOC and PESTLE framework analysis. Findings: Based on the analysis, the cashew business needs certain incentives to attain a better rate of production and export growth in the future. Value: This paper emphases on the growth of the cashew industry in India in relation to its current status and future opportunities. Based on findings and their interpretation, the Indian Cashew Industry must prepare itself for the ever-increasing demand of the domestic market and contribute more effectively to the country’s economic growth. Paper Type: Case Study-based Research Analysis

Зовнішньоекономічні відносини між Україною та Китаєм: основні напрямки розвитку

The article is devoted to the problems of developing foreign trade relations between Ukraine and China, as China ranks first in terms of trade among other trade partners of Ukraine. The article analyzes the reasons for China's interest in Ukraine and possible benefits for our country. The countries' export, import, foreign trade turnover, and foreign trade balance indicators are studied. The calculated indicators allowed us to state a positive trade balance for most goods, which indicates the advantage of exports over imports. The growth rates of exports and imports for the main product groups are calculated. It is concluded that the dynamics of international trade for ferrous metals, seeds, and fruits export growth rates are the highest, and electric machines and flour products - the lowest. The necessity of direct investments for further development in all spheres of the economy is substantiated. The structure of investment cooperation between Ukraine and China is analyzed, and conclusions are made about the number of direct investments coming from China. Based on the research and study of literature sources on the selected topic, the following conclusions were drawn on the prospects of foreign trade relations between China and Ukraine: it is advisable to study in detail the development of China's interests to adjust Ukraine's export policy to revive cooperation partners of Ukraine; as for the Ukrainian-Chinese trade relations, the following product groups have particular prospects for development: already positive in the foreign trade balance (corn, soybeans, barley, dairy products, honey), negative in the foreign trade balance (poultry, pork, fruits, vegetables) ) and products that do not require special state permits (sunflower oil and a wide range of food products). It is expedient to develop bilateral relations in mutually beneficial areas for both countries; there is a positive trade balance for most goods. For ferrous metals, seeds, and fruits, the export growth rates are the highest. For electric machines and flour products - the lowest, we need to emphasize the stabilization of exports of commodity groups, where export growth has increased. Ukraine needs to make tremendous efforts to join the «One Belt, One Road» initiative as a participant: because our country is only a watchdog. Also, you need to show more initiative and declare your desire to join the project «16 + 1»

Competitiveness or complementarity: Analysis of agricultural trade between China and Brazil

The competitiveness and complementarity of trade reflect the advantages and disadvantages of exports and future trade trends. After China joined the WTO, the import and export volume of agricultural products has increased significantly, but the import volume and import growth rate have greatly exceeded the export volume and export growth rate. China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products, and Brazil has become the world’s largest exporter of agricultural products. As a country with the largest increase in agricultural exports, China and Brazil have close agricultural trade exchanges. China has become Brazil’s largest importer of agricultural products for four consecutive years. In addition, both China and Brazil are BRIC countries; therefore, the establishment of a cooperation mechanism is more conducive to the development of agricultural trade. This study uses quantitative research methods to investigate the agricultural trade between China and Brazil by calculating the revealed comparative advantage index, trade complementarity index, and trade intensity index. The study found that due to the different endowments of agricultural resources and the significant differences in agricultural structure, China and Brazil’s agricultural trade competitiveness is weak and they are highly complementary. The main agricultural products exported by China are labor-intensive processed products (pulp and waste paper, textile fibers, vegetables and fruits), and the main agricultural products exported by Brazil are land-intensive products (oilseeds and oily fruits, vegetable oils, raw hides and furs). Complementary advantages in agricultural trade were analyzed. In the future, the two countries have huge potential for cooperation and development.

How are service automation and national ICT development associated with international trade in services?

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate how service automation is associated with the volume of international trade in services and how the interactions of automation, industry, and national ICT development are associated with it. We use data from the U.N. Comtrade, O*NET Online, the U.N. Global ICT Development Index, and the World Bank Open Data to test our hypotheses. We find that the marginal year-by-year growth rates of international trade in highly automatable services decreased in 2007–2017, whereas those of international trade in less automatable services have increased. ICT development is positively associated with the volume and annual growth rate of a country's service exports, but it is negatively associated with the volume and annual growth rate of the country's service imports. The growth rate of international trade in highly automatable services is lower for importing countries with advanced ICT, but it is higher for exporting countries with advanced ICT.

Service Exports and Youth Unemployment in Africa

Abstract Besides waste of human resources, high and growing youth unemployment also threatens social stability in African countries. Reducing youth unemployment therefore solves economic as well as a growing social problem. This article uses a newly constructed data set and three dynamic panel data estimators to investigate the relationship between service exports and youth unemployment in African countries over the 1990–2014 period. Measuring service exports as the growth rate of aggregate service exports and controlling for other covariates, we find that service exports are negatively and significantly correlated with both aggregate and female youth unemployment in African countries in the short term and long run. Panel Granger causality test indicates that service exports Granger cause youth unemployment but not the other way around. Our results are robust to several specification tests as well as estimation methods. Our results are similar to the results of research that finds service exports particularly and exports generally increase employment. While not claiming a causal relationship, the strong negative correlation between service exports and youth unemployment suggests that one mechanism to reduce youth unemployment in African countries is to pursue policies to increase service exports. Service exports could be an alternative to the jobless growth African countries have experienced in the last two decades.

An Assesment of Export Potential of Indian Mentha Oil in International Market

Mentha (Mentha arvensis) is an important crop cultivated in India. Uttar Pradesh is the leading producer state in the country. The present study has been carried out in order to access the export potential of Indian Mentha oil. The export potential and performance of Mentha oil was examined. Apart from this total export, export growth rate and stability or instability of trade for India was also examined. Growth rate analysis and Markov chain analysis were the analytical tools used to assess growth and transition probabilities matrix for the major Mentha oil markets. Data were collected from various published sources from the year 2010-11 to 2019-2020 to calculate the compound growth rate and export potential of Mentha oil. The result of the study revealed that U.S.A. is the most stable importer of Indian Mentha oil because it retain 79 per cent share in last ten years among all the countries. France reported as second most stable importer of India’s Mentha oil had 0.49 transition probability. Japan, Brazil, Netherland, Spain reported zero transition probability, indicating instability in India’s exports to these countries.

Growth and Instability of Exports of Vegetable Products from India

The study examined the growth and instability of vegetable products exports from India during 1996-97 to 2019-20. The results indicated positive and significant growth rates of Indian export for all the vegetable products under study for both the periods and also for the overall period. During overall period, onion fresh and cucumber registered positive and significant growth rates both in terms of export quantity and export value. However, export price of all the products declined significantly during the period of study. In terms of export quantity and value of vegetable products, none of the product showed low instability during the entire study period. In case of export price, low to medium instability was observed in majority of the vegetable products. By analyzing the growth and instability parameters during overall period none of the countries reported to have desirable situation of high growth with low instability in case of export quantity, value and price of vegetable products. The trade liberalization after the entry of WTO led to increase in competition between the countries which resulted into higher instability in the export of products.