Capita Growth Rate Research Articles

Is capital taxation always harmful for economic growth?

We investigate theoretically and empirically the relationship between capital taxation and economic growth. Using a long cross-country panel data set going back to 1965 and employing a variety of econometric techniques, we document that greater reliance on capital taxation, measured in different ways, is not negatively associated with growth rates. Exploring potential heterogeneity in this relationship across countries, we find that capital taxation and growth rates tend to be positively related for developed countries, but for developing countries the relationship is in most cases statistically insignificant. To rationalize these empirical findings we propose a multi-country innovation-based growth model where innovations spill over from leading to lagging economies. In the context of this model we demonstrate that positive rates of capital taxation can increase the long-run growth rate in leading economies where the engine of growth is domestic innovation activity. However, this is not the case in lagging economies where growth is driven by imitation of existing innovations from the technology frontier.

The Relationship between Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Inflation: Evidence from Southeast Asia

This study examines the relationship between financial development, economic growth, and inflation five developing Southeast Asian countries between 1997 and 2016 using a vector autoregressive model. The results revealed that: inflation positively affected money supply and stock market capitalization, but GDP per capita growth rate negatively; GDP per capita growth rate was positively correlated with domestic credit to the private sector; money supply positively affected stock market capitalization and inflation; domestic credit to the private sector exerted a positive influence on GDP per capita growth rate, but negative on inflation; and stock market capitalization was negatively related to inflation. Further, a directional relationship runs from GDP per capita to inflation, from inflation to money supply, and from inflation to domestic credit to the private sector. Policies are recommended to promote economic growth, reduce inflation, and achieve sustainable development in Southeast Asia. First, inflation should be carefully controlled as it causes a decline in the GDP per capita growth rate. Second, GDP per capita growth rate should be promoted owing to its positively effect on domestic credit to the private sector, which has been an important catalyst for economic growth in Southeast Asia over recent decades. Finally, domestic credit to the private sector and stock market capitalization should be fostered because of their contribution to reducing inflation and increasing the GDP per capita growth rate.

Empirical Investigation of Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sane Countries, 1980-2016

This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test technique to cointegration to investigate the relationship between exports and economic growth in SANE countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt) from 1980 to 2016. The results of the long-run relationship revealed that exports had a positive and insignificant relationship with economic growth in South Africa and Egypt. Nevertheless, exports had a positive and significant relationship with economic growth in Algeria and Nigeria. Furthermore, the causality results showed that while a uni-directional causality from exports to real GDP per capita growth rate exists for Nigeria and Egypt, a one-way causality runs from real GDP per capita growth rate to exports for South Africa. This indicates that an export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is valid for Nigeria and Egypt. However, evidence of a growth-led export (GLE) hypothesis was found for South Africa. Nevertheless, no evidence of either an ELG hypothesis or GLE hypothesis was found for Algeria. The study, therefore, recommends that the Nigerian and Egyptian governments should continue with export-led development strategies, in order to sustain the export-led growth strategy, there is need for diversification of exports in South Africa and Algeria, the South African government should continue with growth-led development strategies, in order to sustain the growth-led export strategy, and the spate of political instabilities should be discouraged through democratic ideals with a view to attracting foreign investors in the export sector.

Apartment project risk assessment under market uncertainty; a case study in Wonokromo, Surabaya

Apartment projects are developed based on a set of assumptions; therefore they have to face risks and uncertainties. One of the most important risks is the uncertainty of the market. The economic condition that causes market slow-down in Indonesia recently has led to some certain of stagnation of apartment development, of which impacts remain for years. In such condition, it is necessary to understand how to measure risks before making a decision. The objective of this paper is to assess risk in apartment project under market uncertainty, using quantitative tools selected from the theory associated with the investment decision. The parameters are market risks and operating risks. Market risk is subdivided into capital market risk(CMr), valuation risk (Vr) and market growth rate risk (MGRr), while real estate operating risk is subdivided into operating risk (Or), development risk (Dr), leasing risk (Lr), leasehold risk (LHr) and leverage risk (LVr). The riskiness values are categorized into three classes: conservative, moderate and aggressive. A leased apartment development project in Wonokromo, Surabaya was selected as a case study. The project covered 8,773 square meters of land and consisted of one tower with total 31,829 square meters gross floor area, equipped with parking lots and amenities. The study found out that The CMr was 36%, Vr was 13 %, MGRr was 50%, Or was 112%, Dr was 47%, Lr was 215%, LHr was 61% and LVr was 156%. Although the overall project risk values lie in conservative category, since the level of leasing risk is in aggresive range, more comprehensive investigation should be carried out during a decision-making to reduce the negative impact of risks.

Malthus in the Light of Climate Change

To reconsider the Malthusian predictions of natural limits to economic development, the paper develops a multi-sector growth model with exhaustible resource extraction, investments in physical and knowledge capital, climate change, and endogenous fertility. Economic growth is driven by endogenous innovations which increase in the availability and productivity of research labour. Poor substitution of natural resources triggers sectoral change. Climate change is the result of polluting resource use which is, like consumption and investments, based on the intertemporal optimization of the households. Highlighting the importance of bounded resource supply and of rational extraction decisions I show that climate change is independent of population growth in steady state and there is no causal relationship between climate and population during transition to steady state. The consumption per capita growth rate rises in the innovation rate and the output elasticities of labour and capital in the different sectors. Unlike climate policy, population policy is not warranted; it may be counterproductive because labour is crucial for the research sector.

Catching-up Countries - Lessons for Bulgaria

The data show that nowadays Bulgaria is lagging far behind in its development than other countries in the European Union. That is why catching up with developed countries is a key task for bulgarian economy. The article explores the causes that accelerate economic growth. For this purpose, five countries with the highest average annual GDP per capita growth rates for the period 1870-2016 are identified. Data used comes from the Maddison Project Database. By selecting and analyzing theoretical and empirical literature examining the success of these five countries, it is concluded that catching up is possible, but a unique, economic model is needed. At the same time, those factors, without which rapid development is impossible are determined.

Cover's Rebalancing Option With Discrete Hindsight Optimization

We study T. Cover's rebalancing option (Ordentlich and Cover 1998) under discrete hindsight optimization in continuous time. The payoff in question is equal to the final wealth that would have accrued to a $\$1$ deposit into the best of some finite set of (perhaps levered) rebalancing rules determined in hindsight. A rebalancing rule (or fixed-fraction betting scheme) amounts to fixing an asset allocation (i.e. $200\%$ stocks and $-100\%$ bonds) and then continuously executing rebalancing trades to counteract allocation drift. Restricting the hindsight optimization to a small number of rebalancing rules (i.e. 2) has some advantages over the pioneering approach taken by Cover $\&$ Company in their brilliant theory of universal portfolios (1986, 1991, 1996, 1998), where one's on-line trading performance is benchmarked relative to the final wealth of the best unlevered rebalancing rule of any kind in hindsight. Our approach lets practitioners express an a priori view that one of the favored asset allocations (bets) $b\in\{b_1,...,b_n\}$ will turn out to have performed spectacularly well in hindsight. In limiting our robustness to some discrete set of asset allocations (rather than all possible asset allocations) we reduce the price of the rebalancing option and guarantee to achieve a correspondingly higher percentage of the hindsight-optimized wealth at the end of the planning period. A practitioner who lives to delta-hedge this variant of Cover's rebalancing option through several decades is guaranteed to see the day that his realized compound-annual capital growth rate is very close to that of the best $b_i$ in hindsight. Hence the point of the rock-bottom option price.

Impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth

In the context of the working-age population decline in the Russian Federation, the study of the influence of the dynamics of the share of the working -age population on economic growth is of particular interest. The main purpose of the article is to assess the contribution of the first demographic dividend to the GDP per capita growth rate in Russia betwеen 1997 and 2015. The main methods used by the author of this work are statistical analysis and econometric modeling based on Rosstat data. According to the results obtained in the course of this study, the first demographic dividend provided about 13% growth of real GDP per capita in the Russian Federation in 1997-2015. It has been proved that the age structure of the population is important.

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL AS STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE OF THE ORGANIZATION

The ability to manage knowledge becomes an increasingly important strategic activity in today's so-called. knowledge economy. To prioritize the preservation and improvement of intellectual capital, creating and disseminating knowledge within a modern organization, is becoming an increasingly decisive factor in achieving and maintaining its competitive advantage. The only viable advantage of a modern organization comes from what the company knows and how effectively is used what it knows and how quickly it acquires and uses new knowledge. There is a positive relationship between the intellectual capital and the performance of an organization. Intellectual capital is in correlation with the organization's future performance, and the growth rate of intellectual capital is in a positive relationship with the organization's performance, while the contribution of intellectual capital to improving the organization's performance varies, and is the result of strategic management of the organization itself. In this context, only the learning organization, which is constantly looking for new, innovated and / or enhanced knowledge in the field of activity, has the conditions, chances and opportunities to move forward in the real world. In the modern world, the world of a knowledge-based economy, a competitive advantage that is sustainable on the narrow paths, can only be achieved if the organization takes a lasting commitment to learn, invest in people and their intellectual potential, to support the need of people to continuously explore, learn and accept new, more complete and applicable knowledge. Regarding this, investing in the intellectual capital in the short term may be a significant cost to the organization, but in the long run, any investment in the development of intellectual capital - new knowledge - both scientific, general theoretical, and practically applicable will have a multiplier positive effect on the future business of the organization. The experience of organizations from the world of work has unambiguously confirmed this. Namely, companies that base their business on exactly human cognitive and scientific potentials have the advantage, that is, the world's leading companies are in terms of profit. First of all, these are companies in the field of low-tech technologies, and they are not quite necessary because they are notorious. But, from the experience of such organizations, they can and / or have to learn all the organizations they intend to succeed in a modern, very turbulent business environment. This is especially important for those organizations that intend to be leaders in an area or branch of business. Today, leadership is not realized solely on the basis of the number of pieces produced by a product or on the basis of the number of transactions with the environment, on the contrary, the leader is the organization of work that is imposed as an organization where the intellectual, and parallel with it, also the human capital prevails. Because, it is known, also in practice, that only when people feel in a certain organization friendly, only then do they give their maximum contribution. Only in conditions of complete freedom, some seemingly lucid ideas become "full of hits" in realizing and meeting the needs of the market and people who market it.

Competition, Financial Constraints and Misallocation: Plant-level Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This paper studies the dual impact of increased competition on aggregate output in a setting with both oligopolistic competition and financial constraints. In the absence of financial constraints, more competition unambiguously increases output by reducing markup levels, which increases aggregate capital. However, with financial constraints, stronger competition reduces the profitability of constrained firms and thereby slows down their rate of self-financed capital growth. Extensive reduced-form evidence confirms the theoretical predictions, including evidence from the pro-competitive impact of an industrial policy reform in India. In line with the theory, this reform reduces markup levels and dispersion, and slows capital growth. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that allocative efficiency declines with competition, but this negative effect on output is initially more than offset by a higher aggregate capital level due to lower markups. However, when firms have fixed operating costs, capital growth slows down drastically with competition, which eventually reduces aggregate capital. In this setting, less access to finance implies a lower optimal degree of competition.

THE SPATIAL STUDY OF HEALTH CONDITION OF SOCIETY TOWARDS INCOME GRADE IN PRAMBANAN, KLATEN REGENCY

Health is the most important aspect of the human being life. A good health will affect other aspects, one of which will affect the economic aspect of the income earned by individuals. The purpose of this research is to know the correlation between health condition and income of society in Prambanan Sub-district. This research uses quantitative descriptive research, with the research variables such as health data and income data. The sample in this study amounted to 2,235 respondents from 16 Villages in Prambanan Sub-district, Klaten. The Data Collection Method used in this research are interview, observation and questionnaire with the data analysis technique is quantitative descriptive analysis which is non statistical analysis with frequency table. The results show that there is not a significant correlation between health and income. Pereng Village has an average of "High" income with the population average monthly income > Rp. 1.500.000,00 of 52.04% but has health condition in the "Medium" level. Randusari Village has health condition in "Medium" level whereas Randusari Village has average "Low" income with population with average income per month < Rp. 500.000,00 for 44,44%.
 Keywords: Health Conditions, Income
 
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Financial Development and Economic Growth in Tanzania: An Empirical Investigation

Tanzania economy like of many other emerging market have seen rapid increase number of banks locally and foreign owned since financial sector liberalization in 1990’s even though clear impact of financial sector on economic growth is hard to be singled out. The paper investigates empirically the long run relationship between selected proxies of financial development and economic growth in the Tanzanian context. Using the vector error correction model (VECM), the study finds that financial development is cointegrated with economic growth. That is there is a long run relationship between chosen proxies of financial development and economic growth in the country. This paper used broad money supply M2, foreign direct investment, customer deposits in foreign and domestic banks, credit extended by foreign and domestic banks as percentage of GDP as proxies for financial development. While per capita growth rate used to measure economic growth. The results also show the need to develop even further the financial sector through appropriate regulatory and macroeconomic policies in order to ensure sustainable economic growth as well as economic development. For robustness of the results other test were also performed in this study such as Augmented-Dickey Fuller unit root test and Johansen cointegration test.

Stability, bifurcation analysis and chaos control for a predator-prey system

We study qualitative behavior of a modified prey–predator model by introducing density-dependent per capita growth rates and a Holling type II functional response. Positivity of solutions, boundedness and local asymptotic stability of equilibria were investigated for continuous type of the prey–predator system. In order to discuss the rich dynamics of the proposed model, a piecewise constant argument was implemented to obtain a discrete counterpart of the continuous system. Moreover, in the case of a discrete-time prey–predator model, the boundedness of solutions and local asymptotic stability of equilibria were investigated. With the help of the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theory, we investigated whether a discrete-time model undergoes period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcation at its positive steady-state. Finally, two novel generalized hybrid feedback control methods are presented for chaos control under the influence of period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcations. In order to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategies, numerical simulations are presented.

Financial development, economic growth and convergence clubs

ABSTRACTTo study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.

Fiscal decentralization determinants: analysis of the eu countries´ clustered sample in period 1995-2015

Fiscal decentralization as a shift of decision-making powers from the central level of government to lower government levels is an object of wide research. In this field there is a discussion ranging from the eligibility of fiscal decentralization, its advantages and threats, to searching for the fiscal decentralization´s impact on certain macroeconomic indicators. Research focusing on investigating for fiscal decentralization determinants has not clear answer to this question. It considers various indicators often with their ambiguous impact on fiscal decentralization. In this paper, the problem of fiscal decentralization determinants is investigated on the EU countries sample in period 1995-2015. EU countries are divided into groups according to their fiscal decentralization average degree using the cluster analysis. Fiscal decentralization different measures refer on the expenditure, revenue, tax and grant decentralization. For each cluster a panel model is estimated to reveal an influence of selected variables on fiscal decentralization, while fiscal decentralization as dependent variable is measured by chosen various measure. Sensitivity of the estimation results on the fiscal decentralization measurement is obvious. Obtained results partially support assumptions given on basics of related literature. Significant appearance of the economy openness variable, GDP per capita growth and inflation rate, public and local debt variable and variable based on dependency ratio, and population density is influenced by construction of the fiscal decentralization indicator. It might explain the disunited character of observed FEM and REM results, additionally the turn of coefficient sign comparing fiscal decentralization measures postulates certain common tendencies revealing the fiscal decentralization character and conditions.

Economic cycle, fertility, and seasonal pattern of suicide rates in South Korea from 1995 to 2015

The aim of this study is to investigate mixed risk factors associated with suicide rates in South Korea. Data on suicide in South Korea from 1995 to 2015 were investigated to understand risk factors for suicide using time series analysis. We found that increasing GDP per capita growth rates and fertility rates were associated with decreasing suicide rates. Using the moving average method (monthly data), we found a negative correlation between suicide rates and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). Moreover, a seasonal pattern of suicide rates was found in South Korea. The suicide rate was highest in May and lowest in January. The months of outliers occurred against the seasonal pattern observed in 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2008. These might be associated with the economic crisis or other miscellaneous risk factors. These results provide evidence that there is a significant relationship between suicide rates and the socioeconomic factors mentioned above in South Korea. The results obtained in this study may help to create public policies for lowering suicide rates in South Korea.

Matrix Models of Hierarchical Demography: Linking Group- and Population-Level Dynamics in Cooperative Breeders

For highly social species, population dynamics depend on hierarchical demography that links local processes, group dynamics, and population growth. Here, we describe a stage-structured matrix model of hierarchical demography, which provides a framework for understanding social influences on population change. Our approach accounts for dispersal and affords insight into population dynamics at multiple scales. The method has close parallels to integral projection models but focuses on a discrete characteristic (group size). Using detailed long-term records for meerkats (Suricata suricatta), we apply our model to explore patterns of local density dependence and implications of group size for group and population growth. Taking into account dispersers, the model predicts a per capita growth rate for social groups that declines with group size. It predicts that larger social groups should produce a greater number of new breeding groups; thus, dominant breeding females (responsible for most reproduction) are likely to be more productive in larger groups. Considering the potential for future population growth, larger groups have the highest reproductive value, but per capita reproductive value is maximized for individuals in smaller groups. Across a plausible range of dispersal conditions, meerkats' long-run population growth rate is maximized when individuals form groups of intermediate size.

Cascading effects of a top predator on intraspecific competition at intermediate and basal trophic levels

Abstract Predators can impact competition among prey by altering prey density via consumption or by causing prey to modify their traits or foraging behavior. Yet, differences between these two mechanisms may lead to different cascading impacts on lower trophic levels. Using a crab‐snail‐barnacle rocky intertidal food chain, we tested the effects of predation risk from crabs (top predators) on intraspecific competition among snails (intermediate consumers) and emergent indirect effects on the density of and competition among barnacles (basal resources). The per capita foraging and growth rates of snails declined with high conspecific density. Predation risk from crabs, which caused even larger reductions in snail foraging and growth, weakened competition among snails, whereas a 45% increase in barnacle density had no detectable effect on snail competition. Intraspecific competition between barnacles, however, depended on the interactive effects of barnacle density, snail density, and crab predation risk. Barnacles developed hummocking morphologies as they grew and competed for space. Hummock formation (a proxy for competition) increased as a result of either greater initial barnacle density or reduced snail foraging pressure, but these effects depended on predation risk. The effects of crab predation risk on snail foraging behavior weakened an otherwise strong relationship between barnacle density and hummock development: hummocking increased with barnacle density in the absence of crabs but remained relatively high when crabs were present. In communities with similar final barnacle densities, hummocking was more common in those with crabs than those without crabs. The extent to which predators can drive trophic cascades by suppressing the foraging rates of their prey is highly context‐dependent: the positive trait‐mediated indirect effect of predators on basal resource abundance is stronger when many prey respond simultaneously to the threat of predation. However, our results demonstrate that top predators can also enhance competition among basal resources even when their indirect effect on resource abundance is relatively weak. Hence, the cascading effects of predators on competition within lower trophic levels may play an important but under‐appreciated role in the dynamics of basal resource populations and the communities they support. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.

Technology Focus: Deepwater Projects (May 2018)

Technology Focus Oil and gas companies are set to enter 2018 in their best shape since oil prices collapsed. It is a common belief that many operators will now focus on demonstrating that they can thrive at low prices. The outlook for the deep- and ultradeepwater market is positive, with a forecast capital growth rate of approximately 8% between 2014 and 2018. From an operator perspective, the upcoming 5 years are expected to see Petrobras’ dominant market share decrease as a result of the increase in activity by independent operators such as Anadarko and Noble. Now that the belt-tightening is done, companies are looking to deliver profitable growth and build for the future. We also expect to see signs that the investment cycle is starting to turn and the sector has reset itself to operate at lower commodity prices. By resetting their cost base (with big advances in 2016), the majors/national oil companies greatly expanded their opportunity set in a lower-for-longer scenario. Deepwater breakevens are frequently being pegged below $50/bbl now. Total expects to bring “a number” of projects to final investment decision over the next 18 months. Meanwhile, Shell said it has a decade of inventory in the sub-$40/bbl range, and in some cases sub-$30 range, in deep water. Shell also sees break-evens in Brazil well below $40/bbl across the board. Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said he is ready to grow in deep water now, not at some point in the future. “We need both characteristics in our portfolio,” he said. “What we like about the deepwater business is indeed the very high free-cash-flow generative nature of it, once you pass the investment hump, which gives a lot of resilience, of course, for the portfolio when it is stable … . [Compared with shale] they complement each other, and that’s why we want to have roughly comparable strength—I wouldn’t say equal strength—in both of them.” Companies will need to find the right formula to win back investors after a year of poor stock market performance in 2017. Demonstrating that free cash flow can grow in a low-price environment and fund higher shareholder distributions will be a core focus. Companies must also build a compelling case for long-term investment. This may not happen in 1 year, but they will need to show clear progress in 2018. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. OTC 27850 Stones Development: Best-in-Class Risk Reduction and Cost Improvement During Project Execution by Maria Pena, Shell Exploration and Production, et al. OTC 27947 Driving for Competitive and Affordable Projects in the Gulf of Mexico by David De Pledge, Shell International Exploration and Production, et al. SPE 180350 Integrated Drilling Strategy Leads to Successful Execution of the First Highly Deviated Deepwater Well in Mexico by I. Przhegalinsky, Schlumberger, et al.