Economic cycle, fertility, and seasonal pattern of suicide rates in South Korea from 1995 to 2015

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate mixed risk factors associated with suicide rates in South Korea. Data on suicide in South Korea from 1995 to 2015 were investigated to understand risk factors for suicide using time series analysis. We found that increasing GDP per capita growth rates and fertility rates were associated with decreasing suicide rates. Using the moving average method (monthly data), we found a negative correlation between suicide rates and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). Moreover, a seasonal pattern of suicide rates was found in South Korea. The suicide rate was highest in May and lowest in January. The months of outliers occurred against the seasonal pattern observed in 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2008. These might be associated with the economic crisis or other miscellaneous risk factors. These results provide evidence that there is a significant relationship between suicide rates and the socioeconomic factors mentioned above in South Korea. The results obtained in this study may help to create public policies for lowering suicide rates in South Korea.