National Economic Growth Research Articles

Deep Learning for Exchange Rate Prediction Within Time Constrain

The implementation of an open economic system in Indonesia since 1969 has significant impact to the national economic growth. The high demand and supply of goods from within the country involved in international trade demonstrate a close correlation between export and import activities with the exchange rate of the rupiah. Economic stability is measured through the stability of the rupiah exchange rate against foreign currencies. The balance between demand and supply in the global market is considered crucial for creating a stable economy. History has recorded the Indonesian economic crisis in 1998, where the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar drastically raises and causing challenges to the domestic production cost. This research aiming to make predictions using data science approach based on historical (time series) data. GRU, LSTM, and RNN algorithm being assess to perform the prediction. Results show that RNN algorithms generally outperform GRU and LSTM in making the prediction, particularly with limited time series data. Although RNN is typically superior, in one instance, GRU achieved slightly higher accuracy (0.047% difference) for the CNY to IDR pair over five years. Furthermore, the research highlights the substantial impact of batch size on algorithm accuracy, considering external factors such as interest rates. These findings offer valuable insights for economic decision-making and policy formulation.

Sustainable Women Entrepreneurship through Microfinance: A System Dynamic Approach

An Indian woman business owner makes a substantial contribution to the nation's economic growth. Women play a significant role in society and contribute to the general growth of the economy. Regretfully, despite the modernity of society, women continue to face several obstacles and are prohibited from conducting business in many regions of the nation. The current research helps to understand the problems and constraints faced by women entrepreneurs. Additionally, this study contributes to the long-term mitigation and surmounting of obstacles facing female entrepreneurs. This study aims to use microfinance to create sustainable women's businesses. A system dynamic method is also used to investigate the various positive and negative interactions between the influencing variables that determine the achievement of women entrepreneurs. To reduce the economy's social, economic, market, and financial vulnerabilities and support women entrepreneurs' long-term capacity building through microfinance.

Analysis of Factors that Influence Financial Distress Conditions using the Debt Service Coverage Ratio Approach (Case Study of the Food and Beverage Industry Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange Before and During Covid-19)

Covid-19 condition is known to have had a major impact on the financial performance of issuers. The food and beverage industry is one of the mainstay manufacturing sectors in making a major contribution to national economic growth. The data used in this study was pre-covid data, year 2018 until 2021 during covid. The method used in this study is the Debt Service Coverage Ratio Pranowo et al. (2010). The analysis used in this research is descriptive analysis and panel data regression. The results of this research were that 26 company experienced a decrease in distress, 26 company experienced an company in Profitability, 26 company experienced an increase in Liquidity, 26 company experienced an increase in Efficiency, 26 company experienced a decrease in Leverage, 26 company experienced a decrease in Solvency. Factors that show a significant influence on financial distress in the period before Covid-19 are Efficiency, Liquidity. The factor of increasing efficiency also influences the reduction in the occurrence of financial distress. The factor of increasing liabilities also influences the increase in the occurrence of financial distress. Factors that show a significant influence on financial distress during Covid-19 are Solvability and Efficiency. This shows that during Covid-19, the increase in the value of debt will influence the tendency to increase the occurrence of financial distress. The decline in the value of income during Covid-19 also influenced the increase in financial distress. Advice to investors to be more selective in choosing food and beverage issuers as a place to invest during Covid-19. One important consideration is that investors focus more on factors that have a significant influence on Liquidity, Efficiency, Solvency.

Opportunities and Challenges in Digitalising Marine Logistics in Indonesia

As the largest archipelagic country in the world, Indonesia has great potential in the maritime logistics industry. However, digitalization in this sector still faces challenges such as inadequate information technology infrastructure and a lack of skilled human resources in the digital field. On the other hand, the digitalization of maritime logistics offers opportunities to increase the efficiency, transparency, and traceability of supply chains, as well as reduce operational costs and the risk of goods damage. Collaboration between government, industry, and academia is key in facing challenges and exploiting digitalization opportunities. By overcoming challenges and taking advantage of digitalization opportunities, Indonesia can strengthen its position as an important maritime country and encourage national economic growth through a more efficient and modern maritime logistics industry.

FRAUD PREVENTION STRATEGIES IN INDONESIAN MSMEs: THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HONESTY AND INTERNAL CONTROL FACTORS

This study highlights the role of honesty and internal control in preventing fraud in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. MSMEs are an important pillar in the national economy, but face challenges such as poor management, limited human resources, and fraud. This study examines the impact of a culture of honesty and the implementation of effective internal controls to reduce fraud risk. The sample consisted of 150 MSMEs. Testing was performed using SmartPLS. The results show that honesty and good internal control can increase the reliability of financial information, operational efficiency, and consumer trust. In addition, the implementation of internal control, which includes risk assessment, control activities, and information and communication, has proven to be effective in mitigating the risk of fraud. To support MSMEs in moving up in class and achieving sustainable success, the government and other stakeholders must provide management guidance, training, and support programs that focus on increasing honesty and internal control. Thus, MSMEs can be better prepared to face business challenges, reduce the risk of fraud, and contribute more to national economic growth. Keywords: Fraud, Honesty, Internal Control, Micro Small and Medium Enterprises, MSMEs

Democratic engagements with negativities in education and public school

In this article, I argue that the neoliberal order and its close link to the notion of educationalisation make education—and public schools more specifically—an instrument for political problem-solving and labour market agendas; this, then, makes it difficult for educators to act like public intellectuals with the freedom to create spaces in which one can think, talk and act in ways that are not framed by dominant and instrumental policy. Inspired by Rancière’s and Mouffe’s political work, psychoanalytical thinking and by means of educational examples that stem from (trans)national policy documents (one from the OECD and two from the Danish Government), I describe and analyse how the neoliberal order, including the notion of educationalisation, frames today’s education and can prevent democratic engagements from being a part of Danish public schools. One of the reasons is the strong focus on producing a productive and skilled labour force that successfully secure national economic growth and deliver what the neoliberal labour market desires. This focus contradicts both educators’ and students’ intellectual freedom on a daily basis, which is (still) regarded as vital to supporting education in general and in public schools in particular. Failure seems inevitable. However, failure can be a success for democracy, meaning that some ‘failures’ must be embraced because they are a condition for a living and flourishing democracy.

Building up an artificial intelligence industry in Russia: problems and prospects

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most important areas of scientific and technological progress in many countries, including Russia. This technology is included in national innovation development programs, since its mass implementation can double economic growth. The transition to the sixth technological order has begun, in which AI-based technologies will play an important role. Government programs for the development of AI are becoming an important element of the growth of national economies and national security. AI technologies can significantly increase the economic efficiency of those industries where they will be introduced, primarily in the real sector, in medicine, transport, and weapons. The introduction of AI technologies in these industries can have a multiplier effect in related sectors of the economy, e.g. in education. The creation of high-tech jobs is an important intermediate result of the entire complex of measures for the development of AI technology. The article focuses on the study of state incentives for the development of the artificial intelligence industry in Russia. The state supports the industry mainly through national programs, legal regulation, and budget injections. The author maintains that the AI development and implementation system can be improved by following certain principles. The availability of state support can stimulate the emergence of new players in the artificial intelligence market, which, in turn, could lead to accelerated development of the sector.

THE EFFECT OF ONLINE ACCOUNTING APPLICATIONS, ENTREPRENEURIAL COMPETENCIES, AND COMPENSATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF BOOKKEEPERS IN MSMEs IN SEMARANG CITY

MSMEs have been proven to encourage national economic growth, as seen in MSME players who have the ability to prepare financial statements well and in accordance with financial accounting standards. The research aims to examine the effect of the benefits of online accounting applications, entrepreneurial competence, and compensation on bookkeepers in MSMEs in Semarang City. The research population was all MSMEs in Semarang City in 2020 – 2021. The sample used was 76 respondents. This research used primary data and secondary data in the form of performance assessments, attendance lists, and other supporting data that can be used to support primary data. Data were analyzed using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. The research results show that online accounting applications, entrepreneurial competence, and compensation have a significant effect on bookkeeping performance in MSMEs in Semarang City. This has the implication that by using online accounting applications, entrepreneurial competencies, and good compensation, it is hoped that MSMEs will be able to make the right management decisions in improving good bookkeeping performance. Furthermore, good bookkeeping performance can be used to make appropriate decisions to increase business sustainability. With these findings, it is hoped that the government will support the development of MSMEs and that they can be managed well and in accordance with regulations set by the local government. Keywords: Online Accounting Application, Entrepreneurial Competencies, Compensation, Bookkeepers Performance

Optimalisasi Manajemen Strategi Untuk Menjadikan UMKM Yang Unggul Dalam Persaingan Bisnis

In the current era of globalization and digitalization, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) face increasingly complex challenges in maintaining and improving their competitiveness. Optimizing strategic management is crucial to ensure that MSMEs can not only survive but also excel in the tight business competition. This study aims to identify and analyze effective management strategies for MSMEs to improve their competitiveness. The research methodology involves qualitative and quantitative analysis through case studies of MSMEs in various industrial sectors. Data were obtained from in-depth interviews with MSME owners, surveys, and internal documentation analysis. Key findings indicate that MSMEs that successfully implement optimal management strategies—such as product innovation, utilization of digital technology, effective human resource management, and targeted marketing strategies—can significantly improve their competitive position. This study concludes that the implementation of strategic management based on a deep understanding of market needs, adaptation to changes in the business environment, and the use of modern technology are key factors in achieving competitive advantage. Practical recommendations for MSMEs include developing market analysis capabilities, improving digital skills, and implementing more structured management practices. By implementing these recommendations, MSMEs are expected to increase their competitiveness and contribute more to local and national economic growth.

Redefining International Law Paradigms: Charting Cybersecurity, Trade, and Investment Trajectories within Global Legal Boundaries

Abstract This paper critically examines the evolving intersections of cybersecurity, trade, and investment within the framework of international law, thereby seeking to redefine its normative paradigms. The article adopts a multidisciplinary approach, integrating legal theory, international relations, and cyber law to analyze how digital security issues intersect with global economic transactions. Utilizing doctrinal legal analysis, the article delves into international treaties, case law, and policy documents, while a comparative method highlights variances and similarities across jurisdictions. The article identifies significant gaps in existing international legal frameworks that are ill-equipped to address the complexities and nuances of the digital age. It advocates for comprehensive legal reforms, encompassing cyber warfare, digital trade, and cross-border investments. The objective is to align international law with the digital era’s realities, effectively balancing national security, economic growth, and individual rights in a globally interconnected environment. This article not only uncovers critical shortcomings in current legal structures but also proposes forward-looking legal strategies, essential for tackling emerging challenges at the cybersecurity, trade, and investment nexus. These strategies chart a course towards a more resilient and adaptive international legal system, equipped to address the multifaceted issues arising from the digital era’s convergence.

Financial intermediation around national elections: Evidence of state-owned banks as credit smoothers

This study assesses the impact of presidential and parliamentary elections on different aspects of financial intermediation, considering ownership structure as a determining factor. Consistent with the smoothing hypothesis, state-owned banks (SOBs) observed a lending growth rate of 6.67% higher during the presidential election than private sector commercial banks and subsequently experienced a decrease. During the parliamentary election cycle, indications of reciprocal trade between SOBs and peer banks emerge. SOBs step in to address the lending gap created by competing banks' reduced credit offerings, and vice versa, until the electoral uncertainty subsides. Banks implemented a more rigorous policy about their loan practices before the election years. Deposit liabilities of foreign-owned banks grew by 11.49% in the post-parliamentary election year, while SOB witnessed a contraction in deposits in the year following the presidential election. The results have consequences for national savings, investments, and economic growth. The findings align with the level of development a country exhibits, the composition of its banking sector, and its institutional attributes.

IMPLEMENTATION OF DIGITAL MARKETING STRATEGY TO INCREASE COMPETITIVENESS AMONG MSMES

This research discusses the implementation of digital marketing strategies to increase the competitiveness of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. In the context of national economic growth, MSMEs play an important role in creating jobs, increasing people's income and reducing poverty rates. However, the challenges faced by MSMEs, especially in the marketing sector, require innovative approaches, especially through the adoption of digital marketing. Through a literature review, this research analyzes the role of digital marketing in increasing the competitiveness of MSMEs, the marketing strategies used, the advantages obtained, and the challenges faced. The results show that digital marketing allows MSMEs to expand market reach, increase sales and build brand image effectively. However, there is still a need to increase understanding and skills in implementing digital marketing strategies. Therefore, this research provides insight into the contribution of digital marketing strategies in developing MSMEs which can ultimately support economic growth and community welfare.

Digital financial inclusion, rural consumption and economic growth in China

AbstractIn recent years, the continuous development of China's digital inclusive finance has provided favorable conditions for improving the consumption level of domestic residents and stimulating national economic growth. Based on the theory of financial development and deepening, this paper studies the mechanism and effect of digital inclusive finance on rural residents’ consumption and economic growth. The results show that (1) the development of digital inclusive finance can directly promote economic growth. Specifically, the breadth of coverage, the depth of use and the degree of digitization of digital inclusive finance all contribute to economic growth. (2) Digital inclusive finance significantly promotes rural residents’ consumption, and rural residents’ consumption significantly promotes economic growth, that is, digital inclusive finance can indirectly promote economic growth by promoting rural residents’ consumption. (3) When digital inclusive finance is at different levels of development, rural residents’ consumption has different effects on economic growth. The higher the development level of digital inclusive finance, the better the promotion effect of rural residents’ consumption on economic growth. Therefore, we should continue to promote the development of digital inclusive finance, give full play to the inclusiveness and convenience of digital inclusive finance, and contribute to the promotion of rural residents’ consumption and economic growth.

ANALYSIS OF BOTTLED DRINKING WATER (AMDK) BUSINESS STRATEGIES IN IMPROVING THE ECONOMY OF Islamic Boarding Schools (CASE STUDY OF MAMBAUL ULUM Islamic Boarding School, BATA-BATA PAMEKASAN)

At this time, the business world is entering an era of globalization, where all parties can freely enter any desired market, both domestically and abroad, without any restrictions. Seeing these conditions, every business sector should be required to know and follow climate developments or changes in every business activity. The company must clearly determine the direction in which its business activities are carried out and which parties are the targets of the movement of its business activities or in other words, having determined the direction of its business activities, the company must determine which parties are the targets of the sales of the products offered by the company. Bottled Drinking Water (AMDK) as a newly growing industry has been encouraged to increase national economic growth in the last year. In terms of the number of companies operating in the AMDK sector, according to the Association of Indonesian Bottled Drinking Water Companies (Aspadin), it continues to increase. The increasingly rapid progress in AMDK has encouraged many companies in this industry to expand their production and markets, as well as encouraging the entry of new entrants. The situation that has developed in recent years is increasing competition. The aim of this research is to find out the business strategy for bottled drinking water to improve the economy of the Mambaul Ulum Bata-bata Islamic Boarding School Cooperative. The type of research used in the research is SWOT analysis. The sample used in this research was 30 respondents, namely employees at the Aneka Usaha Bata-bata Islamic Boarding School Cooperative (KOPPONTREN AUBA). Data collection techniques in this research used interviews and observation. Based on the results of business strategy analysis research conducted by KOPPONTREN AUBA to improve the economy of its Islamic boarding schools, KOPPONTREN AUBA implements five business strategies, namely the first SO (Strengths-Opportunities) strategy by expanding market share by carrying out effective and efficient promotions, expanding cooperation with various parties , the second is the ST (Strength - Threats) strategy by managing product quality and carrying out product innovation, the third is the WO (Weakness-Opportunities) strategy by increasing promotions both online and offline and increasing the effectiveness of promotions, the fourth is the WT (Weakness-Threaths) strategy by how to increase the promotion of Labini AMDK to the community. Keywords: Strategy, Business, AMDK, SWOT

The relationship between digital financial inclusion, gender inequality, and economic growth: dynamics from financial development

PurposeThis article employs a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model to examine the relationship between digital financial inclusion (DFI), economic growth (EG), and gender equality (GE) across different levels of financial development.Design/methodology/approachBased on the current financial development dynamics, this study applies the PVAR method to two groups of countries: the first group represents the high financial development group, and the second group represents the low financial development group, during the period from 2015 to 2021.FindingsThe findings from impulse response functions reveal that digital financial inclusion fosters economic growth in nations with advanced financial systems, while simultaneously mitigating gender inequality. Conversely, in countries with less developed financial infrastructures, digital financial inclusion stimulates economic growth but exacerbates gender disparities. Moreover, the variance decomposition analysis indicates that the linkage between economic growth, digital financial inclusion, and gender inequality is more intertwined in countries with limited financial development than in those with well-established financial systems.Originality/valueEffective deployment of new technologies relies heavily on technological infrastructure. This policy focuses on constructing and developing information technology infrastructure to create favorable conditions for the implementation of new DFI technologies. This study also emphasizes promoting equitable education and training by ensuring that both women and men have equal opportunities to access quality education and training. This may involve investing in early childhood education, providing access to primary education, and offering scholarships to women in technology, science, and engineering fields.

მიგრაციის სოციალურ-ეკონომიკური ასპექტები საქართველოში

Migration is a topical issue in Georgia, as it is in many other countries. There are various causes that contribute to migration, including changes in the economy and personal choices. It should be mentioned that according to the research, in the context of Georgia's recent history, financial transfers from immigrants may be able to support the nation's economic growth. Remittances have the potential to stimulate individual sectors of the economy, contribute to the stability of national currencies, improve household living standards. To some extent, the state can direct the remittance resource towards social economic development by implementing appropriate policies.

Analyzing the Far-reaching Effects and Causality: Investment, Corruption, Unemployment, and Economic Growth in Asia-Pacific Nations Over Time

This study investigates the causal connections and both short-term and long-term associations among corruption, investment, unemployment, and per capita economic growth across twenty-two Asia-Pacific nations spanning from 2012 to 2020. The research employs Granger causality and Vector Error Correction Model methodologies to tackle the research inquiries. The empirical results unveil bidirectional causality between corruption and per capita economic growth, whereas the unemployment rate and per capita economic growth share a unidirectional relationship. Conversely, no causal linkage is found among the remaining variables. In the short run, corruption has no significant impact on per capita economic growth and unemployment but does significantly and adversely affect the investment rate. On the other hand, in the long run, corruption significantly and negatively influences per capita economic growth. The investment rate and unemployment, in the long term, exhibit a substantial and positive influence on per capita economic growth. Thus, corruption serves as an obstacle to economic growth rather than a facilitator.

Optimizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a Catalyst for Digital Economic Transformation to Increase National Economic Growth

This study aims to analyze a range of influential challenges to realize AI based economic transformation, thereby producing a comprehensive AI development strategy to maximize the benefits of AI with the minimum possible risk. Research data was obtained from interviews, observations, literature studies, and data triangulation. Based on the results of the study, it was found that the Indonesian Government needs to take several strategic steps in an effort to realize AI optimization to support economic transformation by strengthening the availability of equitable digital infrastructure to support AI implementation, increasing the availability of skilled human resources equivalent to AI technology capacity, providing conducive policy and regulatory support for AI investment and research, and optimizing the ecosystem that supports Innovation and technology startups for the development of AI-based products and services, in order to increase national economic growth.

Perlindungan Hukum Jasa Keuangan Fintech Dalam Perkembangan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Pada Era Indusri 4.0

The Fintech-based financial services sector in Indonesia shows developments that are in line with regional and global sector dynamics. This development plays an important role in accelerating national economic growth, where the financial services sector functions optimally to maintain the smooth running of the financial system. This system is the foundation for sustainable development, supports community financial independence, and improves the distribution of development. This study uses a normative juridical approach with descriptive analysis. The data was analyzed qualitatively and juridically. The research results show that regulations in the financial services sector are developing rapidly due to demands from regional and global changes. One of the main challenges faced is the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF). Legal developments in this sector can be seen in regulatory changes in institutions, services, products, and dispute resolution. Legal reform is still needed to provide a strong legal basis for the financial services sector, especially in civil and banking law. This reform aims to adapt regulations to the latest developments and ensure the stability and reliability of the financial services sector in the future.

Pentingnya Badan Intelijen Pertahanan dalam Non-Combat Military Mission: Instrumen Perhatian Khusus untuk Peningkatan Kapasitas dan Kapabilitas Pertahanan

This research will focus on the importance of Defense Intelligence Agencies in Non-Combat Military Missions. This research method will use a qualitative approach with case studies to explore the importance of the Defense Intelligence Agency in Non-Combat Military Missions. The data will be collected through in-depth interviews with defense experts, intelligence analysts, and military personnel involved in non-combat missions, as well as through analysis of related documents and official reports. As a result, Military Intelligence has a vital role to play in defense policymaking by providing information to anticipate and confront potential threats, enabling comprehensive threat assessment, and supporting defense diplomacy with accurate intelligence. The establishment of the Defense Intelligence Agency under the Secretary of Defense was proposed because it could coordinate intelligence with military operations, speed up decision-making, and support non-combat missions with strategic intelligence. The agency also strengthens Indonesia's defense diplomacy by providing information for strategic planning and supporting collaboration with the local defense industry, which contributes to enhanced national defense capabilities and economic growth. To be effective, the intelligence function of the Defense Intelligence Agency must synergize with the existing intelligence community, to support Indonesia's mission to become an Asian Tiger.