Growth In Vietnam Research Articles

Challenges in Searching for Vietnam's Growth Drivers Through 2030

Vietnam's long‐term economic growth comparisons with ASEAN nations have been striking since its 1986's economic reforms. Such key factors as economic liberalization, a young population and low‐cost labor, knowledge diffusion, and the manufacturing sector have driven Vietnam's growth. Until 2023, Vietnam has the potential to capitalize on several favorable circumstances, including the diversion of trade and investment from China, the growth of the middle class, and the global digital transformation. Nevertheless, Vietnam's economic growth will confront various obstacles and a declining trajectory that predates the COVID pandemic. To circumvent the risk of falling into the middle‐income trap, this paper proposes “active” economic integration, labor productivity, innovation and research and development, the services sector, and green growth as new growth drivers for Vietnam till 2030. Considering the many policy ideas put forth by the Vietnamese government and the World Bank, this paper presents several distinct recommendations on institution reform and human capital accumulation.

Đánh giá tác động của tiếp cận tài chính toàn diện đến tăng trưởng kinh tế: nghiên cứu thực nghiệm với dữ liệu cấp tỉnh ở Việt Nam

The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth has been researched and debated multi-dimensionally recently. Theoretical and empirical research results with cross-country data show that the relationship between inclusion financial expansion and economic growth exists quite closely and is highly significant. But whether this impact relationship is positive or negative, big impact or a small impact, is different depending on the context of each country. With the goal of researching the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for Vietnam in the period 2016 - 2020, household-level data and provincial-level data for Vietnam are selected. The results show that enhancing financial inclusion has a largely positive impact on GRDP per capita. In addition, increasing the proportion of trained workers in the workforce, enhancing digital infrastructure through the internet usage rate, reducing multidimensional poverty, while minimizing negative impacts from the Covid pandemic will improve economic growth in Vietnam in the period 2016 - 2020.

Influences of foreign direct investment and carbon emission on economic growth in Vietnam

Over the course of the previous three decades, Vietnam has seen a phase of economic growth, resulting in the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, it is essential to note that there was an extensive rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions throughout this period. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of FDI and CO2 emissions on Vietnam's economic growth, utilizing time series data from 1990 to 2021. The stationarity of the data was assessed using unit root tests, while an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure was utilized to examine the long- and short-run associations between the components. Based on the research outcomes, it is seen that a marginal rise of one percent in both FDI and CO2 emissions is associated with a corresponding long-term gain of 1.36 percent and 1.11 percent in gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, in the short term, these increments yield an increase of 0.61 percent and 0.29 percent in GDP. The conclusions of this study will provide valuable insights for policymakers in crafting policies that effectively promote sustainable development. Specifically, these policies would aim to strike a balance between capital growth derived from foreign investments and economic expansion, while concurrently mitigating carbon emissions.

THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN VIETNAM: CURRENT STATUS AND POTENTIAL OF VIETNAM - SOUTH KOREA COOPERATION

The digital economy has received significant attention from many countries in recent years. The digital economy includes everyday economic and commercial transactions with people, businesses, and governments processed through information and communication technologies. As Vietnam's economy expands, the contribution of its internet-based or digital economy has significantly increased in recent years. To achieve a high level of digital economy, Vietnam will focus on three pillars: e-government, e-economy, and e-society. Data statistics show that Vietnam's digital economy has grown significantly over recent years. The growth of Vietnam's digital economy has been attributed to various factors, including hard and soft infrastructure. But there are significant problems for Vietnam's digital economy, such as slowing economic growth, limited infrastructure, and human capital resources. Vietnam-South Korean relations have rapidly developed over recent decades, especially in economics. Given South Korea's advanced digital economy, there are many chances for Vietnam and South Korea to cooperate in developing Vietnam's digital economy in the coming years.

TRADE AND INVESTMENT EFFECTS OF THE EU-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

We implement simulations for two policy scenarios to explore how Vietnamese trade and investment change following the EU-Vietnam free trade agreement (EVFTA), based on a computable general equilibrium model. Simulation results indicate that the bilateral trade between Vietnam and the EU grows substantially, and by a much greater amount than the growth of total exports and total imports for the two regions. Aggregating the sectors modelled into six aggregate sectors including agricultural, processed food, extraction, labour-intensive manufacturing, other manufacturing, and services sectors, we find that the processed food and labour-intensive manufacturing sectors in Vietnam experience significant export growth, whereas the remaining four sectors witness declines in exports. In terms of the investment effect of the EVFTA, we find that the EVFTA leads to positive changes in Vietnam’s short-run current rates of return, which is due to the change in the short-run rental price of capital. The findings suggest that Vietnam would receive significant capital gains in the long-run. We further find that all the policy components contribute to the capital growth in Vietnam in the long-run. However, capital gains resulting from tariff elimination are much larger than those from other policy components.

Impact of fiscal decentralisation on economic growth in Vietnam—A spatial regression approach

AbstractApproaching by spatial regression method, this study examines the impact of fiscal decentralisation on economic growth in 63 provinces/cities of Vietnam in the period 2010–2020. Findings suggest that, in general, revenue decentralisation and expenditure decentralisation not only have a positive impact on the economic growth of provinces/cities but also have spillover effects on other locations in improving GRDP per capita. The above findings provide some important policy implications for improving fiscal decentralisation to promote economic growth in Vietnam.

The Role of Textile Export in Vietnam’s Exports and Economic Growth: View from Quantitative Analysis

This paper examines the relationship between textile exports (XM) and total export turnover (X), real gross domestic product (GDPR) (representing economic growth), using time series data collected from the International Financial Statistics (IFS-IMF) and the General Statistics Office (GSO) during the period 1995-2022. The research team uses Eview8 software to build linear regression between XM – X and XM – GDPR in the Vietnamese economy. Quantitative analysis results showthat when textile exports (XM) increase by 1%, total export turnover (X) increases by 0.544969%, the coefficient of T1 (trend variable 1) has a positive value, showing a positive correlation between XM and X. When textile exports (XM) increase by $1 million, the real gross domestic product (GDPR) increases by 95923.95 million VND, the coefficient of T2 (trend variable 2) has a positive value, showing a positive correlation between XM and GDPR and an increase in Vietnam’s economic growth. By using results of the quantitative analysis, articles relate to textile exports and economic growth in Vietnam, the research team offers some recommendations to promote exports in general, textile exports in particular, and the economy of Vietnam.

How Does Foreign Direct Investment Drive Employment Growth in Vietnam’s Formal Economy?

Over the last three decades, Vietnam has undergone economic reforms and achieved rapid economic growth. However, the country is still facing numerous challenges linked to a relatively high share of employment in an informal economic sector, which could prevent Vietnam from escaping from the middle-income trap and becoming a high-income country. This research explores the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on job creation in the formal economic sector of Vietnam. A subnational dataset of 63 cities/provinces from 2006 to 2020 was analyzed using an instrumental variable two-stage least-squares fixed-effect model. The results show that FDI is an employment growth-enhancing factor in the formal economic sector. Specifically, FDI enterprises are found to be more capable than domestic enterprises in creating employment, and there is a positive employment spillover from the foreign to the domestic sector, although the magnitude of the effect remains small. Apart from FDI, firm agglomeration, capital resource productivity, and government support for sector development spur employment growth. Labor quality, profitability and foreign industrial agglomeration are identified to be determinants of FDI. Furthermore, the impact mechanism of FDI on the formal sector’s employment is further discussed using mindspongeconomics, the SM3D knowledge management system, and the culture tower.

Exploring the contributors to the digital economy: Insights from Vietnam with comparisons to Thailand

This paper introduces a practical framework to quantify the digital economy and evaluates its growth in Vietnam, utilizing available Input-Output (I–O) tables from the OECD statistics database. Additionally, it conducts a direct comparison between Vietnam and Thailand, shedding light on their relative standings.The primary contribution of this paper lies in its devised approach for measuring the digital economy. This methodology generates meaningful estimations of the digital economy's size and drivers within a specific country. Moreover, these estimated results are suitable for cross-country comparisons. Concurrently, applying this approach to analyze Vietnam and comparing it with Thailand reveals valuable insights.Firstly, Vietnam's digital economy, amounting to US$17,458 and comprising 7.9% of GDP in 2018, exhibited consistent expansion during the 2012–2018 period. Secondly, the ICT sector, particularly foreign-invested ICT hardware manufacturing, contributes roughly 50% to Vietnam's digital economy, while contributions from backward linkages and digital transformation each account for 20–30%. Thirdly, the non-ICT sectors' contribution to the digital economy is quantifiable through three avenues: purchasing digital products and services, supplying the ICT sector, and generating value-added from within-sector digital transformation. Lastly, compared to Thailand, Vietnam lags in key digital economy metrics. Notably, the Thailand/Vietnam ratio for value-added in 2018 was 3.9 for the total digital economy, 3.2 for the ICT sector, 3.1 for contributions from backward linkages, and 6.4 for non-ICT sector digital transformation, while the ratio for GDP stood at 2.1. This insight underscores that while investing in digital infrastructure, promoting internet adoption, and attracting FDI to ICT hardware manufacturing are essential, they alone are insufficient for the rapid progress needed in advancing Vietnam's digital economy.

CHALLENGES OF POST- COVID VIETNAM TOURIST BRAND RECOVERY

This article analyzes the resurrection of the Vietnam's tourism industry after COVID-19 pandemic, which had a significant impact on the tourism industry, particularly in terms of reducing travel demand and disrupting supply chains. However, the government has implemented several measures to support the industry and promote tourism, including financial assistance, tax incentives, and marketing campaigns. The article highlights the need for continued government support and strategic planning to ensure the long-term recovery and growth of Vietnam's tourism industry. In addition, this paper elaborates on the factors that have impacted the slow return of Vietnam's tourism industry post-COVID-19 pandemic and the government's role in promoting the country's tourism brand. Opportunities and recommendations for Vietnam are discussed to enhance its tourism industry and effectively promote its image in the post-pandemic era.

Mối quan hệ giữa phát triển tài chính và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam

This study is devoted to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Vietnam. The data employed in this study consist of the yearly financial development index and GDP growth during the period from 1992 to 2020. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, the results indicate that the financial development has the negative effect on the economic growth. However, in the opposite direction, there is no evidence regarding the effect of economic growth on financial development in Vietnam. In addition, results derived from the Granger causality test confirm there is the uni-directional causality, from the financial development to the economic growth.

Does firm size improve firm growth? Empirical evidence from an emerging economy

This study aims to examine the relationship between firm size and firm growth in Vietnam. The literature does not in general give support to Gibrat’s Law stating that the expected increase in firm size is proportionate to its initial size, or that firm growth rates are independent of firm size. The present study relies on a sample of 578 listed Vietnamese companies representing eight different industries and covering the period 2010 to 2020. The analysis reveals that growth in firm revenues does not give support to a hypothesis of independence of initial firm sizes. When the firm size is measured by total assets the opposite result appears, i.e. the Gibrat’s Law is not rejected. When including also the age of the firms in the test methodology the conclusion will be that firm growth – measured by revenue or assets – in all cases will decrease with firm size.

Foreign direct investment and urban growth in Vietnam: spatial, economic, and demographic perspectives

ABSTRACT This research reviews the volume and the spatial pattern of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) over three decades in Vietnam. Since Vietnam embraced the market mechanism, Doi Moi, in 1986, foreign investments have become a crucial part of Vietnam, integrating with the world economy beyond former communist countries. Analysing the profiles of 24,624 FDI projects reported in the period 1988–2017, this research has observed the following three interlocked features. (1) Spatial development. Along with growing volume, inward FDI has been highly concentrated in the two top-tier city-regions: the Ho Chi Minh City Region (HCMCR) and the Hanoi Capital Region (HCR). These two city-regions have attracted almost 60% of inward FDI. (2) Economic development. The economic dominance of FDI activities has been observed in these two FDI city-regions. While the HCMCR has attracted a wider range of industries from diverse investors, the HCR has been more specialised in high-tech manufacturing with investments from a smaller mix of origin countries. (3) Globalised demographic development. Inward FDI has been tied up with the influx of foreign nationals. The case of Vietnam illustrates how FDI flows have facilitated territorial changes and urban growth.

TRANSFORMING DEVELOPMENT MODELS TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM TODAY

In the context of climate change and increasing sea level rise, unpredictably affecting the survival of humanity, there is a danger of erasing the economic development achievements of countries. In response to climate change and sea level rise, countries have transformed their growth model to green growth - considering this an inevitable development trend, both a means and a result of sustainable development and environmental protection. Vietnam is not an exception to that general trend. The article clarifies a number of contents related to climate change, overviews climate change in Vietnam in the past time and scenarios to cope with climate change to clarify the transition to green growth in accordance with the circumstances of Vietnam, thereby making some recommendations to better implement green growth in Vietnam in the coming time.<p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0099/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

The Relationship between Commercial Banks Characteristic and Economic Growth in Vietnam

This paper examines the relationship between commercial banks' characteristics and economic growth in Vietnam using the FEM and REM models to test the effect of commercial bank characteristics on economic growth in Vietnam. Using a panel dataset of 28 commercial banks from 2010 to 2021, we investigate the impact of bank characteristics on economic growth and provide some important findings. Our findings show that bank characteristics significantly affect economic growth. These results suggest that policymakers should focus on controlling banks’ activities to support economic growth in Vietnam. Overall, this study contributes to the existing literature on the role of commercial banks in promoting economic growth in developing countries like Vietnam.

Comparing Labor Productivity of Vietnam to Some Asian Countries

In Vietnam, social labor productivity is an indicator of the National Statistical Indicator System (specified in the Law on Statistics), which is calculated by the average GDP per employed worker per year. Research results show that in the 2016-2020 period, labor productivity of the whole economy has improved markedly, with an average increase of 5.78%/year in the 2016-2020 period. However, Vietnam’s labor productivity still has internal limitations that have not been overcome. In comparison with selected Asian countries, Vietnam’s labor productivity has a low absolute value despite its relatively high growth since 1991. In most of the sectors compared, it is basically at the lowest level. As a result, proposing solutions to improve and enhance labor productivity aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth in Vietnam in the coming time is an urgent issue for the development of the country.

The Relationship among Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth in Vietnam - A VAR Approach

This study investigates the causality among export, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth in Vietnam using quarterly time-series data from 2000Q1 to 2017Q4. The vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to explore the relationship among variables in the long term as well as the short term. The results from the Johansen Cointegration test indicated that there was no long-term equilibrium nexus existing between them, so the VAR model would be qualified to apply for the study. Findings from the Granger causality test show that in the short term, there was a bilateral relationship between GDP and Exports, whereas GDP-FDI and Export-FDI are one-way relationships since both GDP and Exports were found by Granger to cause an increase in FDI in Vietnam but not vice versa. The findings of the causality relationship from GDP to exports and FDI and from exports to FDI in the short term imply that promotions in Vietnam’s economic growth will boost export activities as well as attract more inward FDI to the country. The results also indicate a current trend of Vietnam’s FDI being not really sustainable, as many FDI projects invested in Vietnam take advantage of abundant labor resources, low skills and cheap labor costs, as well as the origin of goods from Vietnam for export, as a result, not significantly contributing to the economic development.

A wavelet analysis of connectedness between economic globalization, nonrenewable, and renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in Vietnam

We examine the relationships between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade Openness (TO) and consumption of nonrenewable energy, consumption of renewable energy, and CO2 growth in Vietnam’s different time and frequency dimensions from 1985 to 2019 using cutting-edge multivariate wavelet analysis approaches. The multiple correlations indicate that two regions that were concentrated between 1985 and 1999 (cycles with a periodicity of three years). The partial coherency reveals that the interconnectedness between the TO and nonrenewable energy consumption mostly appears in the low-frequency band (the 15-to-21-year frequency band) starting from 1985 to 1999 and in high frequencies running from 1996 to 1999 and from 2004 to 2008. There are two phases of partial coherence between FDI and nonrenewable energy consumption. In the first phase (1993 to 2003), nonrenewable energy consumption was negatively associated with changes in FDI growth. In the second phase, from 2003 to 2015, the consumption of nonrenewable energy is in phase with the growth of FDI leading. There was a negative nexus between changes in FDI growth and changes in renewable energy consumption growth in the phase from 1997 to 2008. The partial phase difference reveals that the interconnectedness between FDI and CO2 emission mainly lies in the 18–25 frequency band. It appears that the phase from the beginning of our time series to 1994 indicated that changes in FDI led to changes in CO2 emissions, with the relationship being negative. Based on the partial coherence between TO and nonrenewable energy consumption, most regions fell within the 14–22-year frequency band from 1985 to 1994 and 1990 to 2006.

Spillover effects of transportation capital and provincial competitiveness on economic growth in Vietnam

This study uses a spatial econometric model to evaluate the impact of transportation capital and provincial competitiveness on economic growth in Vietnam. Data from 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam were collected between 2010 and 2017. The results reveal that both direct and indirect effects of transportation capital are positive and statistically significant, and that the spillover effect is strong. On average, a 1% increase in the transport capital of a province directly contributes to the province’s GDP increase to 0.03%, and a 1% increase in the transport capital of all 62 other provinces indirectly contributes to the GDP increase of the remaining province to 0.242%. The results confirm the high efficiency of synchronous investments in the transport infrastructure. In addition, the study points to the necessity of improving labor quality, which is closely related to the services provided by the provincial government: general education, vocational training, and employment service growth.

Green Credit Policy Affecting the Green Growth: A Case Study in Vietnam

The trend of green credit was viral and vigorously applied at banks and credit institutions. It helped to increase capital flow, a rich source of investment capital for many areas of social life. Based on a survey data set of 600 credit managers of commercial banks in Vietnam, the present study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and SPSS 20.0, Amos software. The results identified five factors affecting green growth: green credit policy, green financial system, environmental risk management, legal framework, and environmental policy was significant statistically. The article's findings were to determine green credit policy factors that had the most substantial and statistically significant impact on green growth. Therefore, this result was a scientific basis for proposing practical recommendations to improve green growth in Vietnam.