Growth In Vietnam Research Articles

Relationship between Labor and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Practice and Forecast

This paper analyzes the effects of the fluctuation in labor force and labor productivity on Vietnam's economic growth. Using the neoclassical growth model with data from the General Statistics Office, the study shows that when the number of laborers increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will raise by 2.78%. Combined with predicted figures on changes in Vietnam's labor force in the period of 2009-2049, the results of the study reveal in order to maintain the current economic growth rate, labor productivity needs to increase to 106.2% in the period of 2029-2039 and 111.6% in the period of 2039-2049. Vietnam is losing the advantage of labor force so its long-term economic growth will depend mainly on labor productivity. Improving the quality of labor is the driving force for economic growth. This depends on the combination of specific national policies and strategies, in which education and training policies are highlighted.

Changing Trade Policies to Ensure Agricultural Export Growth in Vietnam in post COVID-19

In 2020, Vietnam's agriculture industry faces many big challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters and floods, contagious diseases such as African swine fever. Even in the difficult context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Vietnam’s agricultural sector still maintains a fairly high growth, especially agricultural export with GDP growth rate reached 2.65%; total agricultural export turnover reached 41.25 billion USD. The market of agricultural products continues to develop, and the domestic market is expanded.

Conservation planning on China's borders with Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam.

Transboundary conservation is playing an increasingly important role in maintaining ecosystem integrity and halting biodiversity loss caused by anthropogenic activities. However, lack of information on species distributions in transboundary regions and understanding of the threats in these areas impairs conservation. We developed a spatial conservation plan for the transboundary areas between Yunnan province, southwestern China, and neighboring Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam in the Indo‐Burma biodiversity hotspot. To identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, we determined species distribution patterns and recent land‐use changes and examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the connected natural forest, which supports most species. We assessed connectivity with equivalent connected area (ECA), which is the amount of reachable habitat for a species. An ECA incorporates the presence of habitat in a patch and the amount of habitat in other patches within dispersal distance. We analyzed 197,845 locality records from specimen collections and monographs for 21,004 plant and vertebrate species. The region of Yunnan immediately adjacent to the international borders had the highest species richness, with 61% of recorded species and 56% of threatened vertebrates, which suggests high conservation value. Satellite imagery showed the area of natural forest in the border zone declined by 5.2% (13,255 km2) from 1995 to 2018 and monoculture plantations increased 92.4%, shrubland 10.1%, and other cropland 6.2%. The resulting decline in connected natural forest reduced the amount of habitat, especially for forest specialists with limited dispersal abilities. The most severe decline in connectivity was along the Sino‐Vietnamese border. Many priority areas straddle international boundaries, indicating demand and potential for establishing transboundary protected areas. Our results illustrate the importance of bi‐ and multilateral cooperation to protect biodiversity in this region and provide guidance for future conservation planning and practice.

Firm Level Evidence of Disaster Impacts on Growth in Vietnam

The theory about the impacts of natural disasters on firms is ambiguous and the empirical evidence on this topic is scarce, which hampers the design of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies. In this paper we identify the short-run impacts of storms and floods on firm growth in labor, capital, and sales, using Enterprise Census data (2000–2014) for Vietnam. We define storms and floods with three different disaster measures: physical intensities, number of deaths, and economic damage. The performance of these disaster measures is compared by estimating dynamic growth models using the Blundell–Bond system generalized method of moments. We find evidence that flooding increases labor growth and capital growth but reduces sales growth significantly up to 3 years after flooding. We also find some evidence of positive impacts on labor growth and capital growth but mostly negative impacts on sales growth for storms within 3 years after storms strike. The impacts of floods and storms on firm growth are more pronounced and persistent for small and medium sized firms. Finally, unlike at the macro level, the direction and scale of disaster impacts found at the firm level are fairly consistent across the three disaster measures.

The Recovery of Traditional Cultural Values in Rural Area in North Vietnam in the Doi Moi Period

Due to the lingering impacts of the Vietnam war and the difficulties that Vietnam has been confronting in the post-war period, traditional cultural values in rural areas in North Vietnam were neglected. Since Đổi mới (in 1986), the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Vietnamese government have drawn more concern and been thoroughly aware of the role of culture on Vietnam’s developing path of the country. In addition, the remarkable growth of Vietnam’s economy recently paves the way for Vietnamese residents to rebuild and renew their spiritual lifeas well as enjoy benefits created based on traditional cultural values. This research elucidates the resilience of conventional cultural values in rural areas in North Vietnam in the Đổi mới period, particularly emphasizing the following aspects: Inhabitants’ contributions to build and rebuild temples and pagodas; reinstating conventional rituals and festivals; restoring family customs, and compiling village convention.

Investigation of Causal Correlations Between Higher Education Development and Economic Growth in Vietnam

This work investigated the dynamic relationship between higher education and economic growth in Vietnam using annual data collected ten years from 2010 to 2019. The auto-regressive distributive lag framework was used along with the error correction term to investigate the long-run relationship between real gross domestic product, enrollment in higher education, gross capital formation, and labor. The study used the Granger causality test to assess the relationship between higher education and economic expansion. Follow as the test results, a unidirectional causality running from higher education to economic growth have observed. The necessary diagnostic tests have applied to check the reliability and acceptability of model outputs, and they have been found suitable.

Developing Vietnamese Individual Economy in the Context of International Economic Integration: Research at Vinh Phuc Province

Economic restructuring has been one of the urgent requirements for the Vietnamese economy, especially in the context of the expanding the economy in the industrial revolution 4.0. The growth effects are intensifying and the growth rate seems to slow down. The individual economy is considered to be one of the important drivers for economic growth in Vietnam in the upcoming years. As the region with the largest proportion in the economy, about 40% of GDP (Thanh Binh, 2018), the achievement of economic restructuring goals in the direction of industry restructuring, agriculture developing of worms processing, refined processing of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, manufacturing; increasing the internal productivity of the industry, increasing the technology content and the proportion of domestic value in the product, etc. This article focuses on analyzing the situation of individual economy development in Vinh Phuc province, Vietnam, pointing out the achievements, limitations, causes and some recommendations to promote individual economy development in Vinh Phuc province, Vietnam in the context of world economic integration.

Corruption, business environment, and firm growth in Vietnam

AbstractCorruption is fought by governments in both developing and developed countries because it can harm economic development. However, it has raised the question of why it still exists at a high level in emerging markets like Vietnam. With the data from surveys of the World Bank, Vietnam Competitive Initiative, and Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, this study provides details of the impact of corruption on firm growth and the effect of business environment on corruption at the firm‐perceived level across different firm ownership identities, namely state‐owned enterprise (SOE), shareholding enterprise (SHE), and foreign‐owned enterprise (FOE), in Vietnam. We demonstrate that corruption has a negative effect on the growth of firms with SHEs, FOEs, and non‐SOEs but a positive effect in SOEs. We also document that the difference in the levels of corruption across different provinces can be influenced by the quality of the local business environment, but again, those impacts are heterogeneous in firms with different ownership identities.

Agricultural productivity growth in vietnam in reform and post-reform period

This paper applies the Malmquist productivity index method to measure total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Vietnamese agriculture using panel data from 60 provinces in Vietnam during 1985–2000 when Vietnam implemented widespread de-collectivization, trade liberalization, and reformed her agriculture sector. This study indicates that most of the early growth in Vietnamese agriculture during the first reform period 1985–1990 was due to TFP growth in response to incentive reforms. During the second reform period 1990–1995, the growth rate of TFP fell, and Vietnam’s agricultural growth was mainly caused by drastic investment in capital. In the post-reform period (1995–2000), TFP growth increased again, though still much lower than 1985–1990. Overall, the TFP growth rate in the whole period is estimated at 1.96 percent, contributing to 38% of Vietnam’s agricultural growth.

The role of the coffee industry in sustainable economic development in Vietnam

The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of coffee industry on economic growth of Vietnam. This research has used historic data for coffee production, consumption, exports, and coffee stock for Vietnam, thus this research has followed a quantitative design. The data in this research has been collected from the time period ranging from 1990 to 2018. There are several techniques that were applied in E-views such as descriptive statistics, bounds test, and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results of ARDL model indicate that in the short run coffee industry has an influence on the economic growth in Vietnam. It can be stated that for the short-run the null hypothesis is rejected stating that domestic consumption, exportable consumption, gross opening stock, and total coffee production have impacts over the gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. The results of Bounds test show there is a significant impact of coffee industry on the economic growth of Vietnam in the long run as well.

BOOK REVIEW: The Political Economy of Growth in Vietnam: Between States and Markets, by Guanie Lim

BOOK REVIEW: The Political Economy of Growth in Vietnam: Between States and Markets, by Guanie Lim

The Impact of Exports on Economic Growth in Vietnam

In 2010, Vietnam achieved a total import-export turnover of US $ 154 billion, but by 2019, that number increased more than tripled, reaching over $ 500 billion. In 2020, while the context of complicated developments of the outbreak COVID-19 in the world, disrupting supply chain in international trade, Vietnam's merchandise exports remained the rising trend and exerted a positive impact on economic growth. In the article, the research team will present the results of examining the current situation of Vietnam's exports and economic growth in the period 2005 - 2019 and the first 9 months of 2020. By using Eview8 software to analyze the data series compiled every quarter in the period 2005 - 2019, the research team evaluated the impact of exports on Vietnam's economic growth in this period and pointed out some problems for export activities of Vietnam. Besides, the research team also considers the opportunities and challenges for export activities in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the research team made some recommendations to boost Vietnam's exports in the context of the COVID 19 pandemic.

Comparison of the impact of lending and inflation rates on economic growth in Vietnam and China

Inflation and lending rates are two important macroeconomic indicators as they affect economic growth. The correlation between the inflation rate and the lending rate in Vietnam and China is analyzed to determine whether the lending rate causes inflation or not. An ordinary least square model (OLS) and a unit root test are applied to check the correlation and cointegration related to the inflation and lending rates to avoid spurious regression. The research time series data were collected from 1996 to 2017. The correlation of Vietnam’s variables is 56%, the correlation of China’s variables is 55%, which is a close correlation. The empirical cointegration test results for Vietnam and China are suitable for two research models. The relationship between these two indicators influences each other. In the short term, inflation stimulates economic growth through loose monetary policy through the lending rate. However, in the long term, if the money supply increases continuously, inflation will slow economic growth and increase bad debt. The empirical results are to make accurate forecasts and determine monetary policy for micro-managers who set the goal of sustainable economic growth and have a strategy for economic development in the short and long term.

BANKING DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN VIETNAM

This study is aimed towards assessing the role of banking development and energy consumption on economic growth in Vietnam for the period ranging from 1990 to 2019. The researcher has collected data on the variables from 1990 to 2019 related with banking development, energy consumption and economic growth. On the data collected on the specified variables, certain tests have been conducted. This research has used Stata as the statistical platform to carry out data analysis where descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Bounds test, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) have been applied on the data. The results indicated that the data was non-stationary and had trend which can predict the future data. Based on this condition, ARDL test and Bounds test were applied. The results indicated that overall, the model was found to be significant. Individually, energy consumption had a significant impact in both short term and long term however, there was insignificant association among banking development and economic growth. Keywords: Banking Development, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, GDP, Vietnam JEL Classifications: Q1, O13 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10689

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Aid and Exports on Economic Growth in Vietnam

Foreign factors play an important role in the socio-economic development of each country, in which foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign aid and exports of goods and services are always given top priority in undeveloped countries as well as developing countries. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the various factors such as FDI, foreign aid, exports and economic growth in Vietnam. The empirical method employed secondary time-series data set during the period 1997-2018 to determine the impact of FDI, foreign aid and exports on economic growth in Vietnam by using a linear approach. For this study, data is collected from the World Bank and relevant agencies in Vietnam. An empirical model is built with a correlation and regression analysis between economic growth (GDP, current) and three independent variables (FDI, aid, exports of goods and services). The results show that the relationship between FDI (net inflows), aid, exports and GDP (current) has a positive effect at a 1% significance level. Based on these findings, the article recommends that Vietnam continues to seek effective solutions to maintain high economic growth rates by attracting FDI inflows, official development assistance (ODA), and increasing exports of goods and services.

Industrial growth and CO2 emissions in Vietnam: the key role of financial development and fossil fuel consumption.

The increase in greenhouse gas emission has a major global issue, catching the attention of the researcher and policymakers around the world. The combustion of fossil fuel is the main cause of the rising greenhouse gas emission particularly in developing countries including Vietnam. Meanwhile, the purpose of the study is to evaluate the linkage between fossil fuel consumption, financial development, industrial progression, and CO2 emission over the period from 1970 to 2019, particularly in Vietnam. The study applied the ARDL econometric technique and Bayer-Hanck cointegration approach with structural break to confirm long run relationship and the EKC hypothesis between industrial growth and CO2 emission, in Vietnam, which assume the U-shaped link between CO2 emission and industrial growth in Vietnam. Which further confirmed by Lind and Mehlum U test in addition, the Granger causality exists between fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission in both short run and long run. The causal relationship is unidirectional in the short run running from fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission; therefore, the study proposed to adopt low-carbon emission technology.

Bank-Specific Determinants of Loan Growth in Vietnam: Evidence from the CAMELS Approach

Bank-Specific Determinants of Loan Growth in Vietnam: Evidence from the CAMELS Approach

Public spending, public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis

This study examines the role of economic governance in the relationship between public spending, private investment, and economic growth in Vietnam at the provincial level. The study data consist of sixty-two Vietnamese provinces for the period 2006–2015. Some notable results are attained by applying a sequential (two-stage) estimation. First, the marginal benefits to economic growth of increased Vietnamese provincial government expenditures may be constrained because of the inefficiency of expenditures on education, business services, and public administration. Second, public spending and private investment are found to be substitutes at the provincial level. Third, based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ranking, used as a proxy for provincial public governance in Vietnam, the significance of public governance can be observed. The study concludes that good governance, characterized by different attributes, such as lower informal charges, greater transparency, and unbiased policy, plays a critical role in improving the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces, particularly through its interactions with private sector investment.

Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Labor Productivity Growth in Vietnam

Among developing Asian countries that have accelerated their integration with the global economy, Vietnam has achieved remarkable economic development. Vietnam’s development strategy prioritizing the promotion of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) resulted in the rapid transformation of its industrial structure from an agro-based one to one led by the export-oriented manufacturing sector in the past three decades. Given the importance of labor productivity growth on the structural transformation, the study examined the effects of FDI and trade on labor productivity growth in Vietnam in the long run and short run. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of analysis using data from 1990 to 2017. The ARDL model analysis revealed that FDI, capital goods import, and export unanimously contributed to the labor productivity growth in the long run, while the impact in the short run remained ambiguous. The results confirm the theoretical framework augmenting the positive relationship that exists between FDI and trade and labor productivity growth. Vietnam’s experience is expected to provide an important lesson to other developing countries.

FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM

The paper investigates the impact of financial integration and energy consumption on economic growth in Vietnam during the period 1986–2017. By applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. [Pesaran, MH, Y Shin and RJ Smith (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.] and the bounds cointegration test, the empirical results show the existence of long-term cointegration among all the variables, and that an increase in financial integration leads to an increase in economic growth in the long run. There is a positive impact of energy consumption on growth in both the short run and long run. The causality test of Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, HY and T Yamamoto (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.] confirm that there is bi-directional causality between the pairs, financial integration and economic growth, and energy consumption and growth, which support the feedback hypothesis. However, there is only uni-directional causality from energy consumption to financial integration. The empirical results should be of major empirical importance for public policy decision-makers to plan sustainable development goals for Vietnam.