Growth In Travel Demand Research Articles

Determinants of Bicycle Transfer Demand at Metro Stations

Metro transit networks are constantly expanding to meet the growing travel demand that accompanies rapid urban growth. One main disadvantage of metro transport is its heavy reliance on access and egress transport and, hence, on the corresponding transfer facilities. Improvements to these transfer facilities therefore have the potential to increase use of the metro system while possibly alleviating the traffic load on the urban road network. Because bicycle transfer at metro stations—that is, using a bicycle as mode of access to or egress from the metro system—is underused, the determinants of the demand for bicycle transfer are investigated. Results and findings are valuable for designing policies aimed at improving metro ridership and for designing bicycle parking and transfer facilities at metro stations. To this end, several metro stations in Nanjing, China, were analyzed, and two stereotypical metro stations were selected for how well they represented the system. A large-scale survey was conducted on metro travelers' opinions on and use of bicycle transfer facilities, and data were collected on the current attributes of service groups, bicycle parking occupancy, and transfer mode alternatives. Furthermore, metro travelers' (latent) transfer preferences for bicycle rental facilities were investigated. Two transfer choice models were estimated to identify and quantify the determinants for bicycle transfer demand: one focuses on current walk–metro trips, and the other focuses on current bus–metro trips. The explanatory determinants are discussed, and relative weights are computed with multiple linear regression analysis.

Effects of Road Investments on Economic Output and Induced Travel Demand

The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of road transportation investment on economic output and induced travel demand. Data for U.S. urbanized areas are analyzed within a dynamic panel vector auto-regression model to test whether the effects of transportation-induced economic growth and travel demand can be empirically validated. The results show that investment in road capacity increases average economic growth while simultaneously inducing additional growth in traffic (vehicle miles traveled). Indeed, a general failure of investment to alleviate levels of congestion is found; this finding suggests that productivity shifts are brought about through a net increase in the scale of travel and associated interactions rather than improved network performance as measured by travel times. The evidence also shows that congestion forms part of the decision criterion used to allocate investments in road capacity. If improvements in network performance are to be achieved in a climate of travel demand growth, demand management techniques may be more effective than capacity expansion.

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50–80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here—light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no “silver bullet” strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

Socio-economic and transport trends in India and the United States: a preliminary comparative study

The demand for travel is growing very rapidly in developing nations around the world. Increasing population, standards of living, vehicle ownership, massive infrastructure investments, and economic and recreational opportunities are just some of the factors contributing to increases in travel demand. While the rate of increase in travel demand may begin to slow in some developed economies of the world, the rapidly developing economies (such as China and India) are just beginning to experience the rapid increases in travel demand that the developed economies experienced several decades ago. Thus, there are challenges and issues in the development of multimodal transport systems, understanding of travel behavior and drivers of growth in travel demand, and deployment of advanced analysis tools that are common to both the developed and developing economy contexts. Resource and data constraints, as well as workforce training and development issues, confront transportation professionals both in developed and rapidly developing environments. At the same time, there are socio-economic, cultural, and demographic differences that persist across geographical contexts. This paper highlights some of the socio-economic and transport trends and conditions in India and the United States to shed light on differences and similarities between the two contexts. The paper highlights the trajectory of travel demand in the two contexts with a view to identify potential strategies that a rapidly developing nation such as India can deploy to accommodate growth in a sustainable way.

Reversible lane-based traffic network optimization with an advanced traveller information system

In the case of two-way traffic, there are two opposite-direction flows on every road and serious unsymmetrical flows exist in rush-hour periods. One of the primary methods used for handling this kind of traffic flow is the use of reversible lanes. Which and how many lanes should be adjusted are optimization problems. They can be treated as a network design problem, i.e. the optimal decision on the resource distribution of a street and highway system in response to a growing travel demand. This article studies a new form of transportation network design problem by performing the strategy of reversible lanes. In order to describe this problem, a bi-level programming model is given in which the upper level model is to make the total system cost and flow entropy minimum, while the lower level is a stochastic user equilibrium assignment with an advanced traveller information system. Finally, the numerical example shows that, by adopting the reversible lane and advanced traveller information system, the total system cost will be greatly reduced.

Determinants of Changes in Mobility and Travel Patterns in Developing Countries

This study analyzes changes in sociodemographic, activity, land use, and mobility patterns and their effects on travel dimensions in the context of a developing country. More specifically, increase in vehicle ownership (both two-wheelers and cars) and changes in mode choice over time are observed and analyzed with the use of household data from Chennai, India. Three sources of dynamics are analyzed: exogenous variable dynamics, sensitivity changes over time, and the influence of lagged and persistent effects. The key drivers of growth in travel demand include the increase in vehicle ownership, the number of workers, and the increase in female drivers. The influence of social and technological factors on vehicle ownership and mode choice such as peer pressure and mobile phone ownership are also significant. In addition, the effect of land use, accessibility, and activity has been investigated. Results show significant evidence of differences in travel decisions across different user segments (on the basis of driving knowledge and vehicle–worker ratio) and over time. The proposed disaggregate models provide a reasonably good description (goodness of fit is 47% to 64%) of the observed changes in travel patterns. The findings and results assume importance in the context of increasing congestion, declining public transportation share, and the imminent need for enhancing urban transportation system capacity in cities of developing countries.

TRANSPORT POLICY IN FREE-STANDING TOWNS.

This paper explores the transport policy options open to local authorities in free-standing towns within the climate currently set by central government. The key aspects of national policy, within which local authorities currently have to work, are summarized initially. Growth in travel demand, especially by car, is not a transient phenomenon which can be wished away, but is something which has to be dealt with if the current way of life is to be preserved and enhanced. The options available to local authorities for action in the face of seemingly unstoppable growth in traffic are reviewed. First, the potential for reducing demand by relocating activities is considered. Traffic management is shown to be a double-edge sword. New transport infrastructure schemes -roads and fixed track public transport- are shown not to provide a satisfactory solution in small and medium-sized towns. Next, consideration is given to the encouragement for use of public transport for walking and cycling, but these are also shown to offer, on their own, only limited potential for solving the problems. Lastly, demand management mechanisms, from persuasion to coercion, are discussed. The paper ends with a call for change to provide local authorities with more effective means of controlling traffic demand and of providing good public transport alternatives.

Urban Transit Accessibility Analysis Using a GIS: A Case Study of Florida's Tri-Rail System

Southeastern Geographer Vol. XXXI, No. 1, May 1991, pp. 15-30 URBAN TRANSIT ACCESSIBILITY ANALYSIS USING A GIS: A CASE STUDY OF FLORIDA'S TRI-RAIL SYSTEM* Shih-Lung Shaw INTRODUCTION. Geographers have studied transportation systems in both intercity and intracity contexts using models of spatial interaction, flow allocation, travel demand, and network analysis. These models can be classified as either areal or network oriented. For example, areal unit characteristics are used to estimate trip productions and attractions in a trip generation model while network characteristics are not explicitly considered. Most gravity model applications also use aggregate areal unit characteristics as attracting forces and some distance meaures as impeding forces to estimate amounts of interactions between regions. On the other hand, when network flow models are employed to solve problems of traffic assignment, maximum flow, or minimum cost flow, the characteristics of individual linkages in a network must be included explicitly in the problem-solving environment. (J) This dichotomy makes linking network characteristics with areal unit characteristics in an integrated problem-solving environment desirable. It is a common practice in transportation studies to represent areal data at centroids and to connect isolated points to a transportation network by creating dummy linkages. This approach effectively generalizes areal data into point data and links point data to network linkages. Areal unit characteristics therefore are linked with network characteristics for transportation network analysis. This generalization procedure, however , requires extra steps to prepare data for analysis and tends to remove some important information on spatial dimensions from analysis. What is needed in the examination of a specific transportation problem is a method or tool that combines the strengths of standard approaches to both areal and network-oriented analyses. This paper uses a case study of accessibility from/to a commuter rail system to examine the capabili- * This research was supported by an internal research grant from Florida Atlantic University. I would like to thank Ronald Schultz and the reviewers for their comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Dr. Shaw is Assistant Professor ofGeography at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, FL 33431 . 16Southeastern Geographer ties and advantages of performing such analysis within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS). RACKGROUND AND ORJECTIVES. Southeast Florida, comprising Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties, is one of the fastest growing regions in the nation. Interstate Highway 95 (1-95), the major northsouth arterial in the region, has been carrying an excessive amount of traffic generated by this rapid growth. In order to mitigate traffic congestion on 1-95, the Tri-County Commuter Rail (also known as the Tri-Rail) system was put into service in January 1989; it extends 67 miles from West Palm Beach to Miami International Airport along the 1-95 corridor (Fig. 1). The Florida Department of Transportation expected that 14,192 passengers per day would use the Tri-Rail service, but the actual daily ridership totaled only about 3,000 passengers when service began. Utilization rose to about 4,000 riders per day after mid-day train service was implemented in January 1990. (2) Even though Tri-Rail offers a potential alternative to handling the constantly growing travel demand in southeast Florida, the Florida Legislature requires Tri-Rail to increase its ridership to 9,300 passengers per day in order to generate revenues equal to 40% of its operating costs. Otherwise, the state could discontinue the service. (3) In order to increase utilization of Tri-Rail, this study focuses on the connections between the rail stations and trip origins and destinations by different travel modes. Commuter rail systems have fixed routes and only a few distantly located stations. They rely heavily on other travel modes to transport train riders between rail stations and their trip origins and destinations. At the origin end, train riders can choose between private automobiles and other travel modes to get to the boarding stations. At the destination end, however, they often are dependent on transit modes to get them to their final destinations. An on-board questionnaire survey of Tri-Rail riders indicated that 79% of the respondents identified "park and ride" as their major travel means to get from their residences to the boarding...

Urban transport policy development: two case studies in the Middle East

Abstract The recent completion of two major transport studies of predominantly urban areas in the Middle East (Amman‐Jordan and Bahrain) has provided the opportunity to compare and contrast the transport characteristics of, and medium term transport policies for, the two areas. While in structure the two transport systems have many similarities, their base year usage differs significantly. In view of the much lower income levels in Amman, and the resulting lower levels of car ownership, greater reliance is placed on public transport in Amman than in the more car‐oriented society in Bahrain. Against this background, and in the context of broadly similar overall levels of growth in travel demand, their development in the medium term future should follow different paths. Amman will need to depend on public transport very heavily, with only limited road building. Bahrain should be able to develop a satisfactory road system, with public transport playing its current role except for the provision of services for some relatively modest number of restrained private vehicle users. In both cases, however, substantial investment in off‐street parking spaces is needed. The paper briefly describes the social and economic backgrounds of the two areas, and reviews the transport systems and the organisations responsible for them. Travel demand forecasts are summarized, leading to the transport plan and policy development. The prospects for implementation are discussed, and the paper lastly focuses on some aspects which are key to the development of the transport systems in the two countries.

Research and development on high speed railways—achievement and prospects

Abstract Expectations of continued growth in travel demand in the sixties and seventies coincided with a surge of research and development activity on high speed railways. Both steel wheel on steel rail systems and innovative non‐wheeled systems were studied during this period, though to date there is a sharp contrast between the very significant advances being made in steel wheel on steel rail systems and the almost total lack of application of innovative systems. The purpose of this paper is to review these developments against the economic and technical issues involved and to consider the prospects for future applications of high speed train technology of all kinds.