Determinants of Changes in Mobility and Travel Patterns in Developing Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes changes in sociodemographic, activity, land use, and mobility patterns and their effects on travel dimensions in the context of a developing country. More specifically, increase in vehicle ownership (both two-wheelers and cars) and changes in mode choice over time are observed and analyzed with the use of household data from Chennai, India. Three sources of dynamics are analyzed: exogenous variable dynamics, sensitivity changes over time, and the influence of lagged and persistent effects. The key drivers of growth in travel demand include the increase in vehicle ownership, the number of workers, and the increase in female drivers. The influence of social and technological factors on vehicle ownership and mode choice such as peer pressure and mobile phone ownership are also significant. In addition, the effect of land use, accessibility, and activity has been investigated. Results show significant evidence of differences in travel decisions across different user segments (on the basis of driving knowledge and vehicle–worker ratio) and over time. The proposed disaggregate models provide a reasonably good description (goodness of fit is 47% to 64%) of the observed changes in travel patterns. The findings and results assume importance in the context of increasing congestion, declining public transportation share, and the imminent need for enhancing urban transportation system capacity in cities of developing countries.