Rural Population Growth Research Articles

Decentralization Policies and Rural Socio-Economic Growth in Senegal: An Exploration of Their Contributions to Development and Transformation

Since proclaiming independence in 1960, Senegal has faced economic and demographic imbalances across its regions. To address these disparities, the government launched decentralization policies in three major phases, aiming to stimulate socio-economic growth at the local level. This study examines the impact of these policies on urban–rural development using socio-economic data between 2000 and 2020, and a multiple linear regression model in the entirety of Senegal. The findings reveal significant correlations between rural population growth, access to electricity, fertilizer availability, and per capita cultivated land, all positively associated with agricultural productivity. Additionally, rapid urbanization (47.3%) and weak land tenure (88.6%) adversely affect ecological systems and contribute to the proliferation of slums. A notable lack of health facilities per capita highlights a severe gap in healthcare accessibility. The study suggests increasing agricultural income, creating jobs, and promoting policies that support rural collective entrepreneurship as critical steps. It also recommends adopting a “one ecological zone, one economic activity” strategy to reduce economic disparities and encourage sustainable development in rural Senegal.

Nongovernmental organizations, collective payments for ecosystem services programs, and forest loss: A cross‐national analysis

AbstractObjectiveWe evaluate the debate concerning the impact of collective nongovernmental organization payment for ecosystem services on forest loss in low‐ and middle‐income nations.MethodsWe analyze data for a sample of 79 low‐ and middle‐income nations using a two‐stage least squares regression model to address endogeneity on the payment for ecosystem services variable.ResultsWe find that collective nongovernmental organization led payment for ecosystem services programs correspond to less forest loss in low‐ and middle‐income nations. We also find that agricultural exports, agricultural land area, total population growth, rural population growth, and urban population growth are related to increased forest loss.ConclusionWe conclude that nongovernmental organizations can cooperate with Indigenous populations in low‐ and middle‐income nations to protect forests by using payment for ecosystem services programs.

Depopulation in rural areas of the North Kazakhstan region: social, economic problems and regulatory mechanisms

There are very few studies that have determined the causes of depopulation in rural areas of Kazakhstan and the North Kazakhstan region (NKR). Purpose of the study – to study the causes of the phenomenon of depopulation in rural areas of the NKR, determine its social and economic consequences and propose regulatory mechanisms. To determine the causes of the depopulation process in rural areas of the North Kazakhstan region and propose regulatory mechanisms, methods of empirical, hypothetical, scientific abstraction, dynamic analysis, synthesis, comparative analysis, and systems approach were used. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the rate of natural increase (loss) in the population of Kazakhstan. Having divided the population of the rural areas of the NKR into age groups, we determined which age category was decreasing and put forward a hypothesis about what they wanted. The Government of Kazakhstan has developed and continues to develop various programs for developing rural areas and population growth in the Northern region. However, the coefficient of natural increase (loss) of the population of the North Kazakhstan region has a negative value. The study results showed that the population aging rate in rural areas of this region is intensive. The government must identify groups and target areas that require support measures, taking into account the situation with specialization, labor potential, territorial characteristics, and age characteristics of the areas of the region.

Toward the identification of laggard rural areas: an evolutionary resilience approach

ABSTRACT Based on the evolutionary resilience approach and using Principal Component Analysis, this paper proposes a composite weighted index to measure levels of rural resilience and, in addition, to unravel why some rural areas are less resilient than others. Taking the region of Cantabria (northern Spain) at the municipal level as a sort of ‘laboratory’, the overall results unveil poor levels of resilience and suggest that the main factors limiting resilience are related to cultural interest, rural potential, natural endowment, and connectivity. Our findings also reveal considerable spatial heterogeneity across the different domains of resilience. As a specific contribution, the study brings together rural resilience levels and population growth (as population decline is the first direct consequence of a lack of resilience) in order to define different categories of rural territories, among which laggard rural areas are singled out as areas to be targeted for political intervention. When focusing on such areas, a crucial finding of the paper is that some municipalities that are lagging behind have not been included by the Regional Government as being at severe risk of depopulation, meaning that they cannot benefit from close public monitoring and fiscal support.

Farm Size, Soil Investment, and Quality: Theory and Evidence from a Panel Data Set in Tanzania

Achieving sustainable agricultural development is a vital concern as soil degradation poses a growing threat to the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the developing world. Previous literature has highlighted the potential for rural population growth to exacerbate this concern by leading to smaller farm sizes and crop production on marginal land. This paper uses a theoretical model to demonstrate a countervailing effect consistent with the work of Esther Boserup: Smaller farm sizes can encourage greater intensification and investment in the soil. Using panel data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey, I test the model and find some evidence consistent with this effect. Smaller farms are associated with greater organic, but not inorganic, fertilizer application, and higher levels of some soil quality proxies. These results suggest that if key resource and information constraints are overcome, population growth need not be an obstacle, and can be a boon, to sustainable agricultural development.

Land to the landless: Does the type of approach matter?

Uncertainty about land ownership is believed to increase vulnerability of marginalized groups in a society. When agriculture is not only responsible for employing more than half of the labor force population but also the main source of the livelihood of poor families, access to land becomes critical. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the impact of land reform on agricultural output in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Employing a system of equations model and controlling for traditional variables, our study yields several noteworthy findings. First, our results reveal that land development exhibits a positive impact on agricultural output, emphasizing the importance of investment in agriculture. Conversely, the positive coefficient for civil unrest highlights the intricate relationship between land reform and social stability, suggesting that unrest may be a consequence of land reform aimed at addressing inequality. Second, the channel equations shed light on the indirect pathways through which factors like rural population growth rate, life expectancy, and capital stock influence agricultural output. These findings underscore the potential benefits of managing rural population growth, improving healthcare, and increasing investment in agriculture, albeit with varying degrees of impact. Third, our study dissects the different effects of land reform policies. Willing seller-willing buyer and various forms of expropriation are found to be significant in both land development and civil unrest equations, indicating their dual role in promoting land development while potentially contributing to social unrest. Striking a balance between land reform and stability emerges as a crucial policy challenge.

Declining Rural Population in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security

This study is geared towards investigating the influence of rural population growth on food production in Nigeria from 1961 to 2018. The data was analyzed using the Johhansen cointegration test, ordinary least squares (OLS), dynamic (OLS), and fully modified OLS. The findings portrayed that a long-term link exists between food production and rural population growth in Nigeria. From the dynamic OLS, which is the lead model, it was observed that the influence of rural populations on food production has been negative and significant. This negative effect is linked to the continuous rural-urban migration that has left agriculture in the hands of the elderly. To curb this, the paper suggested that by making agriculture attractive through aggressive mechanization and the provision of inputs, the rural population will be able to accelerate food production and ensure food sufficiency in the country.

SMART TRAFFIC LIGHTS USING IOTTECHNOLOGIES : PROJECT CONCEPT AND PROGRESS

The rural exodus and population growth has led to the rapid expansion of cities without sometimes developing road infrastructure. This situation is at the origin of congestion in road traffic with a very high number of vehicles. In Africa, cities that have the financial means often use traffic lights with a predefined traffic plan which can be ineffective at sometimes of the day. In this paper, we propose a concept of wireless traffic light terminal, connected and self-sufficient in energy, for installation at intersections without public works on the road. This traffic light terminal is accessible remotely from police stations for its supervision and control. Thus, traffic management at an intersection is carried out remotely and in real time by an agent who selects a traffic plan adapted to the current situation. The objective is to centralize, with few personnel, the management of several intersections equipped with traffic light terminals, for better overall regulation of road traffic at low costs. Our work resulted in a proof of concept, for a four-lane crossroads, made with four Arduino electronic boards, four Lora wireless modules, a Raspberry-pi microcomputer, a camera and a 4G modem. For the software part, a server application developed with the node-red language, on the Raspberry-pi electronic card, provides the graphical interface for monitoring and control. The proposed system integrates a Cloud service that makes the human-machine interface for supervision and control remotely accessible via the Internet.

Does Freedom of Domestic Movement Impact Forest Loss? A Cross-National Analysis

On the one hand, previous research argues that growth in rural populations leads to forest loss from clearing trees to make room for the growing population and their farming needs. On the other hand, research is also concerned with how deforestation drives people out of rural areas, leading to overurbanization. From this work, it is clear that the movement of people has an important relationship to forest loss, but it is less clear what the autonomy of people is in this process. Put differently, more focus has been put on state-level economic and environmental factors than political factors when considering the impact of domestic migration on forest loss. Although there has been substantial work on how political factors, like democracy, impact forest loss, there is less research on how political rights, like freedom of domestic movement, may impact forest loss. To build on this research, we test the impact of freedom of domestic movement and democracy on forest loss from 2001 to 2014 for a sample of 107 low- and middle-income nations. We find support for the idea that having more freedom of movement decreases forest loss in more democratic nations compared to less democratic nations. We also find that both rural and urban population growth, among others, is associated with higher levels of forest loss. Together, our findings suggest that the freedom of domestic movement should be taken into consideration in addition to population growth from actual domestic movement when researching forest loss.

What makes peripheral places matter? Applying the concept of political capital within a multiple capital framework

Present research focusses on how urbanization has led to ‘territorial inequality’ that marginalizes ‘places that don't matter’, understood as places neglected by politicians. In this strand of literature, rural areas are consequently singled out as belonging to the unfortunate group of ‘left behind places’ and ‘places that don't matter’. However, to what extent can this be supported empirically? Based on a Danish national survey we conducted 2011/2012, and applying the concept of political capital within a multiple capital framework, we attempt to answer three questions: Do rural areas per se have little political power and influence? What makes some rural areas have more political capital than others? Does local political capital influence the local development in rural areas? We measure political capital by asking respondents in 476 rural parishes to assess how much influence local citizens exert on political decisions that concern their own, local area. The results show a significant variation in political capital across the sample. Further, regression analyses show that the local stocks of five forms of capital (physical, economic, human, social, symbolic) are positively related to the level of local political capital. Finally, regression analyses show that the initial level of political capital in 2012 has a positive and long-term effect on rural population growth throughout the period 2012–2023, while controlling for various exogenous factors.

Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Comprehensive Analysis of Long-Term Relations and Short-Term Dynamics

In the current study, researchers have examined the association among consumption of energy, emission of carbon, and economic growth and investigated along with indicators such as urban population growth and rural population growth, whose data exist from the period 1981-2022. used (ADF) unite root test, ARDL, and bound test. The results based on ARDL models show that a unidirectional long-term relation exists between the variables being examined. In the short term, there is a strong and significant relationship between energy consumption (EC) and carbon emissions with economic gcorowth (GDP). The findings suggest that in Pakistan, energy is a factor for both short and long-term economic growth. Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and rural population growth, while the urban population also influences economic growth. The outcome of these empirical findings suggests that the country should aim at increasing energy consumption with minimum impacts of pollution and achieve energy security. Priority should be given to energy management that combines demand and supply factors. Efforts should be made to promote an adequate energy mix that includes clean, renewable energy and improve energy efficiency in a holistic framework. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, and urbanization policies must be adapted to achieve energy self-sufficiency together with minimum CO2 emissions.

Impacts of population growth and economic development on food security in low-income and middle-income countries

Attention to addressing undernourishment in low-and middle-income countries has expanded notably since the beginning of the 21st century. Population growth increases the overall demand for food, while income growth affects consumption patterns. Using annual aggregate data from the World Bank in 2001–2020 and econometric approaches, this research investigates the changes in the growth rates in rural and urban populations and GDP per capita and the prevalence of undernourishment as % of the population in low-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, and upper-middle income countries. The main goal of the study is to convey a deeper understanding by quantifying the impacts of rural and urban population growth as well as GDP per capita growth on the prevalence of undernourishment. The robust regression models showed that the prevalence of undernourishment in these countries was strongly associated with rural and urban population growth. A positive impact of rural population growth on undernutrition was found in all three groups of countries, with the most significant positive effects found in upper-middle-income countries. The negative effect of urban population growth on undernourishment was largest for the upper middle-income countries. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares results revealed that the changes in the prevalence of undernourishment are mostly associated with long-term changes in the rural and urban population growth. The Difference in Difference (DiD) estimation confirmed only the causal effect of rural population growth on the prevalence of undernourishment in the panel of these countries. The findings of this study have both methodological and policy implications.

Probing environmental sustainability pathways in G7 economies: the role of energy transition, technological innovation, and demographic mobility.

Global warming remains the most devastating environmental issue embattling the global economies, with significant contributions emanating from CO2 emissions. The continued rise in the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions serves as a compelling force which constitutes the core of discussion at the recent COP26 prompting nations to commit to the net-zero emission target. The current research presents the first empirical investigation on the roles of technological advancement, demographic mobility, and energy transition in G7 pathways to environmental sustainability captured by CO2 emissions per capita (PCCO2) from 2000 to 2019. The study considers the additional impacts of structural change and resource abundance. The empirical backings are subjected to pre-estimation tests consisting of cross-sectional dependence, second-generation stationarity, and panel cointegration tests. The model estimation is based on cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag, dynamic common correlated effects mean group, and augmented mean group for the main analysis and robustness checks. The findings reveal the existence of EKC based on the direct and indirect effects of the components of economic growth. The indicators of demographic mobility differ in the direction of influence on PCCO2. For instance, while rural population growth negatively influences PCCO2 in the short-run alone, urban population growth increases PCCO2 in the short-run and long-run periods. Nonrenewable energy, information computer technology (ICT) imports, and mobile cellular subscriptions serve as positive predictors of PCCO2, while ICT exports and renewable energy moderate the surge in PCCO2. Policy implications that enhance environmental sustainability are suggested following the empirical verifications.

Drivers of Financial Inclusion: Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa

Financial inclusion has garnered global attention due to the detrimental effect that financial exclusion has on tackling socioeconomic challenges such as poverty. Using a dynamic panel approach, our study examines the drivers of financial inclusion in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 2000 to 2017. We discover that financial globalization and literacy rates positively and significantly drive financial inclusion. We also find that rural population growth has a profound adverse impact on financial inclusion. The study further reveals that bank profitability, bank stability, and economic growth have a negative albeit insignificant effect on financial inclusion. The positive effect of financial globalization on financial inclusion has important policy implications for Sub-Saharan African countries. In this respect, the integration of the local financial system with global financial markets will facilitate efforts to achieve financial inclusion in the region.

INVESTIGATING THE DETERMINANTS OF CEREAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

This study examined the factors that determine cereal production in Nigeria in two different periods; namely from 1970-2006 and from 1986-2021 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. Findings revealed that in the two periods, cereal production was mainly influenced positively by land under cereal production and agricultural raw materials import. Also, while arable land impacted positively on cereal production in the second period, both food importation and rural population growth adversely impacted on its production. The study therefore contends that for cereal production to improve in Nigeria, land under cereal cultivation should be improved. Furthermore, while there is need to encourage the importation of more agricultural inputs in the short-run, the long-run target should be geared towards sourcing the inputs locally. It is equally the view of the study that while it is pertinent to modernize agricultural practice so that the rural inhabitants can embrace farming, excessive cereal importation should be checked to encourage local production.

Rural Marketing in India: Issues, Challenges, and Opportunities

Rural marketing is expanding quickly, and businesses that operate in villages must put a lot of effort into this area. All of these people are benefited by rural marketing thanks to the numerous marketing alternatives available in India. It appears claimed there is a large global market opportunity in the rural Indian market. Rural market conditions are currently undergoing a very rapid change. Due to rising disposable income and literacy rates, rural consumers are increasingly demanding branded goods. Consumers in rural areas tend to be more determined and use a wider range of items, both durable and non-durable, and are willing to pay a fair price for the correct goods. The Indian market, as well as the international market, now includes rural markets. More than twice as quickly as urban markets, rural markets are expanding. Given the vastness of the Indian rural market and its large consumer base, it offers marketers limitless options as well as several difficulties. Marketers have realised that rural India has a lot of potential, and with politicians focusing more on infusing funds to boost the rural economy, corporations are becoming more interested in rural India. One cannot afford to overlook the immense potential for rural markets presented by the growth in rural income, population, infrastructure, and supportive government policies.

Effects of Poverty on the Level of Food Security in Countries of the Former Yugoslavia

This paper examines factors that affect the level of food security in the former Yugoslavia (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Macedonia). The data on the basis of which the research was carried out were collected from the national statistics and the database of the World Bank for the period 2006–2018, and as a statistical method, the multivariant analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used. The results obtained indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the gross domestic product per capita ($), growth of urban population, growth of rural population, percentage of undernourished population and poverty rate. Differences between countries in terms of these factors indicate the level of food security.

Exploring the influence of multidimensional variables on access to electricity in rural areas of the Global South

Electricity plays a fundamental role in sustainable development by facilitating the provision of basic services and improving the quality of life for poor urban and rural populations. The dominant approach to rural electrification research in the Global South has been to focus on economic and social indicators, resulting in a limited understanding of rural electrification. This research diversifies the current literature by including technical and environmental criteria in the analysis of electricity access in rural areas. This paper aims to understand the criteria that have a significant impact on access to electricity in rural areas across the Global South, specifically in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper examines the influence of multidimensional variables (e.g. social, economic, environmental and technical) on access to electricity in rural areas. This study encompasses two sets of data: the first from a group of countries of the Global South and the second from the Latin American and Caribbean region, using mostly countries with low and middle human development index. To understand the behavior of these multivariable relationships, this paper uses a linear regression methodology and penalizes regression (i.e., LASSO and Ridge). For the countries of the Global South, the model shows a negative correlation between access to electricity in rural areas and population growth rates. For the Latin American and Caribbean countries the model indicates a negative correlation between access to electricity in rural areas and electricity consumption per capita. These results possibly indicate that countries of the Global South that have high population growth rates have challenging paths towards universalizing electricity access, and raise the question if Latin American and Caribbean countries have prioritized their access to electricity agendas in non-rural areas. This paper confirms that population growth rates and electricity consumption per capita are criteria that have a strong impact in access to electricity rates in rural areas of the Global South, and Latin America and the Caribbean, respectively.

Simulating the Coupling of Rural Settlement Expansion and Population Growth in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, Based on MCCA Modeling

Analyzing the relationship between rural settlements and rural population change under different policy scenarios is key in the sustainable development of China’s urban and rural areas. We proposed a framework that comprised the mixed land use structure simulation (MCCA) model and the human–land coupling development model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in rural settlements and its’ coupling relationship with the rural population in the economically developed region of Deqing, Zhejiang Province. The results showed that rural settlements and urban land increased by 14.36 and 29.07 km2, respectively, over the last 20 years. The expansion of some rural settlements and urban land occurred at the cost of cropland occupation. Rural settlements showed an expansion trend from 2000 to 2020, increasing from 42.69 km2 in 2000 to 57.05 km2 in 2020. In 2035, under the natural development scenario, the cropland protection scenario, and the rural development scenario, rural settlements are projected to show an expansion trend and Wukang and Leidian are the key regions with rural settlement expansion. The distance to Hangzhou, nighttime light data, distance to rivers, and precipitation are important factors influencing the expansion of rural settlements. The coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population developed in a coordinated manner from 2000 to 2020. For 2035, under different scenarios, the coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population showed different trends. In the rural development scenario, the highest number of towns with coordinated development between rural settlements and the rural population is in Deqing, predominantly with Type I coupling. Overall, an important recommendation from this study is that the sustainable development of regional land use can be promoted by controlling the occupation of cropland for urban and rural construction, balancing rural settlement expansion and rural population growth, and formulating land use policies that are more suitable for rural development.

Assessment of water, sanitation, and hygiene target and theoretical modeling to determine sanitation success in sub-Saharan Africa.

Accessing the status of clean drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The current article contributes to the progress made by the WASH initiatives in ten SSA countries in eliminating open defecation by 2030, using theoretical data from 2017 to 2019. The authors used regression trend estimation to observe that rural and urban population growth had a statistically significant detrimental influence on the elimination of open defecation by 2030. According to the predicted data model, by 2030–2035, the urban population of SSA would be 65, 25, and 10 million in all the three categories of income groups. An increase in the number of modern pit users (C1) shows no improvement at the annual rate of change. The unimproved toilets and open-pit latrines (C2 and C3) show a linear growth rate, which expanded over time. Population growth, higher unemployment, and teen pregnancies contribute to this increase. Under current conditions, the curve of modern pit latrine users will increase linearly. Nigeria has the most significant number of spread pit latrine users, which has decreased linearly from 25 to 20% since 2017. It was evident that the power-law trend in Nigeria would increase the usage of unimproved pit latrines and open-pit latrines. Ghana had the highest rate (50%) of open-pit latrine users, while the data show that this situation remained stable (2001–2017). In the Democratic Rep. Congo, annual rates increased linearly from 25 to 33% (2000–2017), while Burundi was one of the countries in the region with the lowest number of open-pit latrine users, although the annual rate has increased from 6.13 to 11.75% since 2017 to 2019.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02620-z.