INVESTIGATING THE DETERMINANTS OF CEREAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined the factors that determine cereal production in Nigeria in two different periods; namely from 1970-2006 and from 1986-2021 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. Findings revealed that in the two periods, cereal production was mainly influenced positively by land under cereal production and agricultural raw materials import. Also, while arable land impacted positively on cereal production in the second period, both food importation and rural population growth adversely impacted on its production. The study therefore contends that for cereal production to improve in Nigeria, land under cereal cultivation should be improved. Furthermore, while there is need to encourage the importation of more agricultural inputs in the short-run, the long-run target should be geared towards sourcing the inputs locally. It is equally the view of the study that while it is pertinent to modernize agricultural practice so that the rural inhabitants can embrace farming, excessive cereal importation should be checked to encourage local production.