Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Research Articles

MODELING THE EXPORTS DIVERSIFICATION IN THE OIL COUNTRIES GROWTH: THE CASE OF GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COUNTRIES

This paper aims at modeling and analyzing the short and long run effects of export diversification on economic growth using the countries Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) panel data for the period 1992–2017. The paper introduces the panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag/ Pooled Mean Group (ARDL/PMG) to reach its purpose. The export diversification measured by Theil index. The Pedroni panel cointegration test confirms that the variables are cointegrated, whereas Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimates indicate a positive significant long run relationship between export diversification and real GDP growth, no significant effect of export diversification in the short run. Results reveal a significant impact of trade openness growth on real GDP growth, which confirms the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between the growth of trade openness and economic growth for the GCC countries. it is worth to mention that the overall effort for GCC region on average had succeed in diversification, and the achieving of their plans goal is start to appear as a long run effect. but the study reveals that results may differ relatively in each country.Keywords: Economic growth; Economic diversification; Oil Countries; Trade openness; Structural reform; Panel ARDL/ PMG.JEL Classifications: C10, C33, F11, F14, F43, O11, O13DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8977

Ghost of GDP: Sponge, Myth or Moustache Twitching?

This paper discuss shortcomings, limitations and alternatives of GDP. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GDP growth are economic buzz words, widely discussed more in politics rather than economics. Many economists are skeptical and ask a curious question; whether Real GDP is real or ghost? Does a GDP growth number help individuals or government in taking decisions to improve life or economy? Can an economy be judged on strength based on GDP numbers? GDP discussion in politics reminds us of a modern proverb; “There is a lie, damn lie and there is statistics”. In a competitive world, economies attempts to prove superior to others, and in this endeavor they plays with GDP and GDP number like a magician. Does GDP demonstrates real strength or is like mustache twitching? Mustache twitching is symbol of muscular strength, but does it make you win in real fight? We argue that GDP is hollow like sponge. GDP is no less than a myth. GDP can be indicative, but not objective indicator enough to take business or managerial decision. For politician it could be a tool to show case strength like moustache twitching, as they are not going to lose anything except the election. A business can lose many things if it fails to take decision to generate profit. Even if Real GDP growth is real, but no growth in the sector in which company operates, GDP is irrelevant to take a business decision. On the contrary in spite of recession, a company may find business opportunity in product line where there is growth potential. Government executives play with the number to produce GDP numbers to please their political bosses. Therefore, majority of GDP growth estimates are revised downward and real numbers are even lower than revised numbers. There is no standard method to calculate GDP. GDP is not calculated on real basis. It is estimated based on proxies of selected goods and services. There is inherent bias in choice of goods and services to include in GDP calculation. Innovations are brought in new methods to calculate GDP without testing it on reality.

Competitiveness, economic growth and human development in Latin American and Caribbean countries 2006-2015

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance and the relationship between competitiveness, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and human development in 20 countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region during the 2006-2015 period. The main argument to uphold here is that – from the perspective of virtuous circle – countries with better conditions of competitiveness are those with better economic performance and with better conditions for human development.Design/methodology/approachTime series data were organized at three levels: individual countries, groups of nations and Latin America and Caribbean as a whole. Indicators used were: index of competitiveness, rates of change in real GDP and Human Development Index. Cluster analysis tests were performed: data ranges were determined and quintiles were established. Countries were ranked in five categories and comparative position matrices were determined for each variable. Linear correlations between indexes were calculated. Linear correlation coefficients were determined in terms of groups of countries and considering Latin America and Caribbean as a whole.FindingsFindings revealed that decreasing conditions in competitiveness and economic growth indicators are the representative situation since 2009. The most competitive country in the region is Chile, and the weakest is Venezuela. Nevertheless, all Latin American and Caribbean countries analyzed seem to have made progress in terms of human, economic and social development. Regarding correlations, Dominican Republic showed an inverse relationship between competitiveness and economic growth, while Jamaica and Venezuela showed inverse relationships between competitiveness and human development. At the individual country level, no statistically significant relationship between economic growth and human development was detected.Research limitations/implicationsFindings highlight the necessity of future research that result in a deeper understanding of the transmission mechanisms between economic and social performance in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Particular reasons at the micro level that explain improvements or deteriorations in competitiveness and human development must also be analyzed. Based on the degrees of freedom, time series could have included more years, but a lack of information was found for some countries. It would also be necessary to observe each particular case considering the type of economy, production characteristics and export/import composition.Practical implicationsResults complement the existing literature by exploring competitiveness and its relationship with economic and social variables in developing countries. The authors also believe that this paper is relevant for macroeconomic and social policy debates involving competitiveness and human well-being in this region of the world.Originality/valueThis paper supports an important argument: human well-being and national development must be the ultimate goal of competitiveness. Traditional literature focuses on levels and determinants of competitiveness in developed countries, but it usually does not take into account social and human aspects of the process in developing countries. Little attention has been paid to analyze the relationship between competitiveness and socioeconomic variables in developing countries. Methods and findings of this paper complement the existing literature by studying the relationships among competitiveness, real GDP growth and human development in Latin American and Caribbean countries, using correlation analysis.

The Effects of IMF Loan Condition Compliance on GDP Growth

Since beginning operations in 1947, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has evolved from its original purpose of overseeing the world’s monetary system to becoming a loan administrator for member nations facing extreme economic crises. Today, the IMF provides conditional lending programs to catalyze economic recovery and growth in recipient countries. Critics of these programs cite various reasons for conditional loan program failures, naming the borrowing countries, creditor countries, and/or the IMF itself as responsible. Using data from 8,377 loan conditions associated with 93 countries’ IMF loan arrangements from 2000 to 2014, this article studies the effects of complying with individual conditions on the borrowing countries’ real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Our results suggest that real GDP growth rates are directly affected by meeting the compliance standards of select loan conditions. JEL Classifications: 019, F35

Financial conditions and economic growth

This paper relates cross-country growth in real gross domestic product (RGDP) to ex-ante financial distress. For each of the 45 countries covered in the study, we first develop country indices of ex-ante financial distress from firm-level data and then employ an autoregressive model to examine the short and long-run implications of ex-ante financial distress on RGDP. The econometric analysis of over 590,000 firm-year observations over the period 1987–2011/2014 reveals that ex-ante financial distress has a strong negative relationship with growth in RGDP. In particular, we find that ex-ante financial distress lowers growth in RGDP in the short run and this effect persists in the long run. The short-run impact is valid across alternative weights used in the constructed country-level indices. In addition, a standard deviation increase in financial distress generates 0.11 standard deviation decrease in economic growth.

Electronic Payment Systems (E-payments) and Nigeria Economic Growth

The electronic payment system is a platform that settles financial transactions between the buyer and seller. Payment systems are meant to ease the stress of both parties making an easy exchange or flow of money in a safe and secure environment. This study statistically estimated the relationship between electronic (e-payment) systems and economic growth in Nigeria. Monthly available Data for Nigeria on values of various payments systems were analyzed using Autoregressive Distributed Lagged regression (ARDL) method covering the period of (2012-2017). The result indicates a significant positive relationship between the electronic payment system and economic growth in terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Automated teller machines have a positive significant impact on economic growth, based on a probability of (0.06), but its contribution to the real GDP growth is negative (-5.0 percent). This means the ATM based transaction encourages more cash, possessions and may not yield the required goal of low cash based transactions within Nigeria’s banking populace. POS contributes 17 percent growth to the real GDP growth in Nigeria, web based transactions (WBT), contributes 2.3 percent to the real GDP growth, but INTERBANK transactions, has an insignificant impact on GDP growth while MOP has a negative contribution to the impact on real GDP growth. Point of Sales (POS) transactions is also the most patronized electronic banking tool and this is seen from the descriptive analysis, followed by web base transactions (WBT). POS and WBT have the highest average amongst all other variables. This implies that POS and WBT are significantly part of the major determining factors influencing and contributing to the real GDP growth output in Nigeria, while other variables such as INTERBANK transactions are although relevant but contributes minimally and drive real GDP output negatively down, as reflected in the results. Since the successful implementation of the e-payment systems which has much to do with internet connectivity and mobile banking, efforts should be made to design or improve on the internet security framework to check online fraud. There should be adequate legislation on all aspects of the operations of the e-banking and cashless system so that both the operators of the system and the public can be adequately protected.

Growth Accounting for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is a capital and energy-intensive economy and also dependent on expatriate labor. With the recent fall in oil prices, the Kingdom is actively pursuing structural transformation. The study identifies a research gap in estimating the contribution of labor and capital to the Saudi Arabian economy. This study focuses on estimating the relative contribution of major long-term determinants of economic growth. With the support of the auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL), the study establishes a co-integrating relationship between real gross domestic product (GDP), investment expenditure, labor force and education expenditure in Saudi Arabia. The study notices that the maximum contribution to real GDP growth in Saudi Arabia is from the labor force. The minimum contribution to real GDP growth comes from investments in the predominant oil sector. This study identifies the mechanisms to make the localization program successful. The study recommends further diversification in productive sectors to gain benefit from new investments and suggests cutting down the unproductive expenditure in education.

DETERMINANTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET IN LATVIA

The development of the corporate bond market in Latvia while being quick and robust in the period 2012-2017 (the average growth rate 131%, median 44%), has faced major challenges in 2018 (Nasdaq Baltic, 2018). The latter has demonstrated the vulnerability of this alternative to banking financing method in Latvia. In the environment, where the ongoing changes in the banking financing as initiated by the Basel III and Capital Markets Union initiatives, besides to the decision on creation of pan-Baltic capital market with the support of the European Commission and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, are bringing more emphasis on the increasing role of the corporate bond market in Latvia; the need to understand its development and factors affecting this development is essential. The goal of this article is to explore the corporate bond market development frameworks as elaborated by the academic research and recognise corporate bond market development determinants, identify the determinants of the corporate bond market in Latvia by running the statistical analysis. Tasks of the research include examining types of corporate bond development frameworks with the focus on revealing the determinants of the corporate bond market development as recognised by the academics, performing the econometric analysis of the determinants selected and building an econometric model of the determinants of the development of the corporate bond market in Latvia as well as drawing corresponding conclusions. In order to accomplish the tasks of the research the following research methods were used: analysis of the previously performed research, analysis of the legislative framework; quantitative research methods: statistical data analysis of macroeconomic data from Bank for International Settlement, The World Bank Database, Bloomberg and Reuters databases; financial market indicator and data analysis from Nasdaq Baltic, Bank for International Settlement, Treasury of the Republic of Latvia, Bloomberg and Reuters databases; correlation analysis, regression analysis. In the result of the analysis, the determinants of the corporate bond market development in Latvia were analysed, where 27 factors as detected by the theoretical analysis to be influencing the corporate bond market development in a country were applied to Latvia. The regression analysis has demonstrated the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, amount of domestic savings, real GDP growth, amount of government bonds as the share of GDP and regulatory quality on the amount of the corporate bonds outstanding. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eis.0.12.21875

Finance–Growth Nexus in Nepal: An Application of the ARDL Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Executive SummaryA healthy financial system is important for the growth process of an economy. It affects growth by influencing the saving, investment and technological innovations. In fact, researchers argue that low-income countries like Nepal need a much more robust and active financial system when compared to the developed world. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth using annual time series data for Nepal during the period 1984–2014. Because Nepal has a bank-based economy, the study used credit issued by banking and financial institutions to the private sector as the proxy for financial development. The economic growth has been measured using real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and real GDP per capita growth (constant 2005 US$). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to investigate the cointegration among variables in the presence of structural breaks. The study used Zivot and Andrews’ (ZA) unit root test in order to find the structural breaks in the variables. The study finds that the structural change in private credit took place in 2007 when the government of Nepal and Maoists (the then rebels) signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Maoist rebels joined the interim government, which formally ended the 10 years long civil war in Nepal. Similarly, the study observes break points in real GDP growth and per capita growth in 2001 when the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency took place in Nepal. After allowing for structural breaks, the study finds evidence of a cointegration relationship between financial development and economic growth when economic growth is used as the dependent variable. Thus, it can be argued that the long-run causality is unidirectional from financial development to economic growth in Nepal. The estimates of the ARDL approach suggest that financial development has a significant positive impact on economic growth in both long run and short run. However, the estimates show that gross domestic saving, a control variable, has a negative impact on economic growth in Nepal. It clearly indicates that Nepal has long not been able to utilize the savings in the productive sector. The political instability, poor investment policies and securities and hence the lack of foreign investment and lack of technological innovations could be the causes for Nepal not benefiting from the country’s savings. It is also found that trade openness has a negative relationship with economic growth in the long run: possibly the cause of the persistent trade deficit of Nepal with the rest of the world. However, in the short run, the result shows a positive relationship between trade openness and growth. In fact, it is found that the magnitude of the positive impact of trade openness in the short run is higher than the magnitude of its negative impact in the long run. Thus, the policymakers should give more emphasis on trade and investment policies that could reduce the prolonged trade deficit and help the nation in getting long-term benefits from international trade.

The impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Jordan: AN ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

This paper examines the effect of inflation (INFR) and unemployment rate (UNR) on economic growth which is measured by Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) in percent on in Jordan for the period 1976-2016. To achieve this objective unit root, Augmented Dickey Fuller test was used. Subsequently, the Autoregressive distributed Lag ( ARDL) bounds testing approach and Error Correction Model (ECM-ARDL) model are applied to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables under consideration. The empirical results of the study revealed, the results of the unit root test indicate that Real Gross Domestic Product growth (RGDPG), unemployment and inflation are tested at first difference then the problem of unit root has disappeared and hence they have become stationary at first difference. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long-run when RGDPG is the dependent variable. Also, there is a long run relationship amongst the variables when INFR is the dependent variable. The results indicate also that there is no significant Granger causality from INFR to UNR and from RGDPG to UNR and from RGDPG to INFR and from INFR to RGDPG as well the short run. The results of this study can be used by all respected authorities in Jordan, especially authorities of economic and social institutions, so that they could attempt to reduce and control unemployment and inflation to achieve economic growth.

The Fed's Asymmetric Forecast Errors

I show that the probability that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System staff's forecasts (the "Greenbooks'") overpredicted quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth depends on both the forecast horizon and also whether the forecasted quarter was above or below trend real GDP growth. For forecasted quarters that grew below trend, Greenbooks were much more likely to overpredict real GDP growth, with one-quarter ahead forecasts overpredicting real GDP growth more than 75% of the time, and this rate of overprediction was higher for further ahead forecasts. For forecasted quarters that grew above trend, Greenbooks were slightly more likely to underpredict real GDP growth, with one-quarter ahead forecasts underpredicting growth about 60% of the time. Unconditionally, on average, Greenbooks overpredicted real GDP growth.

Can stock market liquidity and volatility predict business cycles?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and business cycles by using information from both liquidity and volatility measures.Design/methodology/approachThe paper estimates liquidity and volatility measures from over 5,000 NYSE rms and extracts a common factor, which the paper calls uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to determine the ability of the uncertainty factor to predict growth in real GDP, industrial production, consumer price index, real consumption and changes in real investment.FindingsThe paper finds that on average, positive shocks to the uncertainty factor occur in the quarters preceding and at the beginning of a recession. During the quarters toward the end of recessions, there are negative shocks to uncertainty on average.Originality/valuePrevious research has explored using either liquidity or volatility to forecast economic activity. The paper bridges the two branches of research and finds a link to real GDP growth and business cycles.

The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries

ABSTRACTThis study tests the importance of various categories of public expenditure, the functional structure, and growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), using an autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model. We document and study the correlation between real GDP growth and 10 different categories of public expenditure, according to their functional classification, using quarterly data for the period 1995–2015, for 10 selected Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union. The results of our study, like most recent literature, show that expenditures on education and health care have a positive impact on the economy, while expenditures on defense, economic affairs, general public services, and social welfare have a negative impact.

Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries

This study aims at empirically investigating the drivers of sustainable economic growth in EU-28 countries. By means of panel data regression models, in the form of fixed and random effects models, alongside system generalized method of moments, we examine several drivers of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, as follows: higher education, business environment, infrastructure, technology, communications, and media, population lifestyle, and demographic changes. As regards higher education, the empirical results show that expenditure per student in higher education and traditional 18–22 year-old students are positively linked with sustainable economic growth, whereas science and technology graduates negatively influence real GDP growth. In terms of business environment, total expenditure on research and development and employment rates of recent graduates contributes to sustainable development, but corruption perceptions index revealed a negative association with economic growth. As well, the results provide support for a negative influence of infrastructure abreast technological measures on economic growth. Besides, we found a negative connection between old-age dependency ratio and sustainable economic growth.

Economic Determinants and Analysis of the European Union Wood Industry SMEs Employment

Wood-based industries are an important part of the European Union (EU) manufacturing sector because their growth can help in achieving EU’s industrial policy goal of raising manufacturing’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 20% by 2020. In this paper, special emphasis is placed on the influence of macro-economic factors on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) employment in the wood industry. The research objective was to test whether traditional macroeconomic indicators of economic growth are significant determinates of SMEs employment dynamics. For estimation of employment dynamics, a two-step Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond (a system generalized method of moments) estimator with robust standard errors was used. The model contained the following independent variables: real GDP growth rate; industrial production of wood processing industry; the number of wood processing enterprises; and exporting of manufactured goods of wood processing. The findings confirmed that the increase in GDP growth rate, the industrial production of wood processing, and exporting of manufactured goods of wood processing had statistically significant and positive impacts on SMEs employment. It was also found that the existence of a high number of enterprises had a positive impact on employment.

Testing for a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth.

Using the Reinhart–Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the 5 per cent significance level for most cases. While we find no evidence of a threshold around 90 per cent, our findings from the post‐war sample suggest that the debt threshold for economic growth may exist around a relatively small debt‐to‐GDP ratio of 30 per cent. Furthermore, countries with debt‐to‐GDP ratios above 30 per cent have GDP growth that is 1 percentage point lower at the median.

Impact of non-performing loans on US product and labor markets

PurposeUsing time-series data on the US banking industry for the period 1984Q1-2016Q2, the present study aims to examine the impact of both aggregate and sector-specific non-performing loans (NPLs) on aggregate and sectoral product and labor markets.Design/methodology/approachUsing both single equation ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions, the study compares the sensitivity of sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth to changes in both aggregate and sectoral NPLs. Moreover, the paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to dynamically trace the impact and duration of NPLs on different types of real economic activity..FindingsRise in total NPLs reduces US real GDP growth that is most accentuated for construction sector GDP. Likewise, total NPLs significantly lowers both total and non-farm employment growth, financial activities and construction sector employment growth, with the latter showing most sensitivity. Moreover, NPLs in commercial and industrial sector, consumer lending, non-farm non-residential, construction and land development, single- and multi-family residential sectors reduce corresponding sectoral employment growth. The VARs largely confirm these findings with shocks to total NPLs having the most immediate and persistent inimical impact on construction-sector GDP growth.Practical implicationsThe deleterious impact of different categories of NPLs on both aggregate as well as sector-specific product and labor markets illustrate that a distressed banking sector is a serious obstacle to the real sector. The findings underscore the need not only to clean up NPLs for the sake of banks financial soundness but also to reduce their pernicious effects on the health of the US economy. For bank regulatory authorities in the USA, it indicates constant monitoring of banks in their jurisdiction and identifying early warning signals to mitigate the potential real sector losses due to rising NPLs.Originality valueThe extant literature on NPLs has mainly focused on explaining its underlying determinants but not on its real sector consequences. The present paper examines the impact of NPLs on different facets of real economic activity, an issue that has been rarely studied and especially not on the US economy. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of existing literature focuses on aggregate NPLs. The relationships derived in such studies, while useful, can mask important differences between different types of NPLs and real economic activity. The present paper explores the impact of disaggregated NPLs in the US banking industry on corresponding sector-specific product and labor markets, again an issue that has not been studied previously.

The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe

The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between energy demand and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and to investigate the role of regional externalities on per capita Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in 34 countries during the period from 2005 to 2013. The paper utilizes a Dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (DPGGM) approach and spatial econometric techniques in order to analyse the effect of real GDP growth rate on FEC through an Error Correction Model (ECM) and to examine clustered patterns of energy consumption. The results show that a) the demand is elastic both in the industrial and the household/services sectors, b) electricity and natural gas are demand substitutes, c) the relationship between real GDP growth rate and per capita energy consumption exhibits an inverted U-shape for all the sample countries under scrutiny (34 countries, Eurozone and EU28), but not for all the employed sectors of the economy, d) price (electricity and gas) and GDP growth asymmetries are supported from the employed parametric tests, and, e) distance does not affect per capita FEC, but economic neighbours have a strong positive effect.

Role of Foreign Direct Investment by Multinational Companies in Economic Growth of Nepal

Role of Foreign Direct Investment by Multinational Companies in Economic Growth of Nepal Shila Mishra, Ekaterina A. Degtereva, Khyam Paneru Abstract This paper explains the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth of Nepal. It examines the impact of the total number of industries and the total number of positions approved for foreign investment on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the real GDP growth rate of Nepal. The paper uses data from fiscal year 2004/05 to fiscal year 2013/14. The analysis shows the positive impact of foreign investment on real GDP growth rate but insignificant impact on GDP per capita of Nepal. This paper reaches the conclusion that the host country should take full advantage of foreign investment to boost the economic growth of the nation. The host country should distribute foreign investment to industries by category (construction, manufacturing, energy, services, tourism, and agriculture) and at different scales (small, medium, and large). Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.15640/jeds.v5n1a9

OUTPUT GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA: HAVE BUSINESS CYCLES CHANGED?

This paper documents important changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of six large Latin American countries. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of a structural break in real GDP toward stronger mean growth and a substantial reduction in volatility. Second, the timing of the breaks suggests that the important changes in economic policies of the 1980s and 1990s have been effective in permanently improving economic growth in the region. These changes in the growth processes imply recessions that are shorter in duration and milder in amplitude. The sustained increase in commodity prices observed in recent years explains an important share of growth in the region since 2003. But after accounting for the effect of commodity prices, there is even stronger evidence of a structural break in real GDP growth. (JEL E32)