Ground Motion Simulation Research Articles

Ground-Motion Variability from Kinematic Rupture Models and the Implications for Nonergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract The variability of earthquake ground motions has a strong control on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), particularly for the low frequencies of exceedance used for critical facilities. We use a crossed mixed-effects model to partition the variance components from simulated ground motions of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone. Total variability of simulated ground motions is approximately equivalent to empirical models. The high contribution from rupture speed suggests an avenue to reducing variability through research on the causes and predictions of rupture speed on specific faults. Simulations show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the variability that manifests from directivity effects. We illustrate the impact of this spatial heterogeneity on hazard using a partially nonergodic PSHA framework. The results highlight the benefit of accounting for directivity effects in nonergodic PSHA, in which models that account for additional processes controlling ground motions are paired with reductions in the modeled ground-motion variability.

The Sensitivity of Global Structural Parameters for Unreinforced Masonry Buildings Subjected to Simulated Ground Motions

This research performs a parametric study based on Equivalent Single Degree of Freedom (ESDOF) models for simplified seismic analysis of unreinforced masonry (URM) structures. This is a necessary action due to the fact that it is not affordable to model and analyze populations of masonry buildings by using detailed continuum-based models during regional seismic damage and loss estimation studies. Hence, this study focuses on the sensitivity of major structural parameters of a selected idealized hysteretic model for URM buildings. The numerical models are subjected to region-specific simulated ground motion time histories generated using validated seismological parameters. The variations in dynamic analysis results are evaluated using statistical tools for major structural and seismological parameters. The results reveal that the strength factor is the most influential structural parameter, whereas magnitude and distance have a significant impact on the response of idealized URM models as seismological parameters. Furthermore, the specific seismic performance exhibiting limited ductility capacity and the narrow margin of safety between the initial state of inelastic behavior and the ultimate (collapse) state for URM buildings is verified by the statistical approaches employed in this study.

Seismic response of high-speed railway system under actions of ground motions from deterministic physics-based simulation

In order to investigate the response of a high-speed railway bridge under seismic excitations in the near-fault area, a deterministic physics-based method is used to construct the ground motion field in the near-fault area of a scenario earthquake. A finite element model of an assumed high-speed railway system is established, which consists of a finite length CRTS III ballastless track laid on a 15-span simply-supported girder bridge. The simulated ground motions and a group of three-component as-recorded accelerograms are used to provide non-uniform and uniform excitations at bridge piers, respectively. The seismic response of the rail-track-bridge system is calculated, and the effects of using different types of seismic excitations for the seismic analysis of the high-speed railway bridge in the near-fault area are analyzed. The results show that two end piers of a multi-span simply supported girder bridge could encounter remarkably different excitations in terms of waveform and frequency content for different bridge alignments in the near-fault area. The vertical response of the railway bridge system is more sensitive to the pattern of the excitation than the longitudinal response. Considering the spatial difference of ground motions among piers could increase the difference of the rail vertical displacement between the beam joint and mid-point of span, forming a remarkable periodic vertical irregularity of the rail. Using non-uniform excitation could lead to a reduction in DPeak and APeak which is most significant for DPeak in the vertical direction.

Hazard‐consistent simulated earthquake ground motions for PBEE applications on stiff soil and rock sites

AbstractGround motion record selection is a standard step in state‐of‐the‐art performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) applications. It links the structural response to seismic hazard of the site of interest. In this process, suites of hazard‐consistent ground motion recordings of a wide range of intensity levels are selected (and often scaled) from a database of ground motions to be used as input to nonlinear dynamic response analysis. The ideal practice would be to select ground motions from a database of recorded accelerograms in such a way that they are consistent with the seismic hazard at as many intensity measure (IM) levels as possible and for all important causative scenarios. However, the available databases are not heavily populated, especially for the large‐magnitude short‐distance scenarios. Therefore, synthetic ground motions are the natural candidates to enlarge the database of recordings for scenarios that are important to the site hazard but lack, completely or partially, recorded accelerograms. The usage of such recordings, however, can be recommended only after they are proven to be “realistic” through a battery of seismological and statistical tests. In this study, we propose and implement a multi‐fold testing framework for such an evaluation. We first generate a ground motion database of simulated ground motions (SDB) whose values of the parameters of the causative earthquakes are, to the extent possible, the same of those that caused the ground motions in a mirror database of recorded ground motions (RDB). We then utilize the conditional spectrum (CS) approach computed for a hypothetical rock site in Perugia, Italy, to select hazard consistent records separately from the RDB and SDB databases. A comprehensive set of comparisons of distributions of several IMs, computed from the selected sets, and of distributions of engineering demand parameters (EDPs), that such record sets induce on simple SDoF structures suggests the adequacy of using the proposed simulated ground motions for structural response analyses of structures on stiff and rock sites.

Instantaneous Physics‐Based Ground Motion Maps Using Reduced‐Order Modeling

AbstractPhysics‐based simulations of earthquake ground motion are useful to complement recorded ground motions. However, the computational expense of performing numerical simulations hinders their applicability to tasks that require real‐time solutions or ensembles of solutions for different earthquake sources. To enable rapid physics‐based solutions, we present a reduced‐order modeling approach based on interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to predict peak ground velocities (PGVs). As a demonstrator, we consider PGVs from regional 3D wave propagation simulations at the location of the 2008 MW 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake using double‐couple sources with varying depth and focal mechanisms. These simulations resolve frequencies ≤1.0 Hz and include topography, viscoelastic attenuation, and S‐wave speeds ≥500 m/s. We evaluate the accuracy of the interpolated POD reduced‐order model (ROM) as a function of the approximation method. Comparing the radial basis function (RBF), multilayer perceptron neural network, random forest, and k‐nearest neighbor, we find that the RBF interpolation gives the lowest error (≈0.1 cm/s) when tested against an independent data set. We also find that evaluating the ROM is 107–108 times faster than the wave propagation simulations. We use the ROM to generate PGV maps for 1 million different focal mechanisms, in which we identify potentially damaging ground motions and quantify correlations between focal mechanism, depth, and accuracy of the predicted PGV. Our results demonstrate that the ROM can rapidly and accurately approximate the PGV from wave propagation simulations with variable source properties, topography, and complex subsurface structure.

Efficient ground motion conditional simulation method for nonstationary multivariate processes based on Kriging method and orthogonal discrete wavelet transform

Conditional ground motion simulation methods preserve more physical features of actual ground motions than unconditional methods by including actual earthquake records. This study developed a conditional multivariate nonstationary process simulation method based on the combination of the Kriging method and the orthogonal discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The Kriging method is used to ensure the spectral coherences between simulations as prescribed and is extended to nonstationary random processes by applying it to the average power spectral density (APSD) of ground motions. The ground motions' DWT wavelet coefficients are assumed to be uniformly time-modulated stationary processes whose time-modulating functions are the envelopes of the seed record's wavelet coefficients. The APSD and the envelopes together outline the energy distribution of the random field in both the time and frequency domain features. The power spectral densities of the stationary random processes' DWT coefficients are derived and used to estimate the APSD of the ground motions' DWT coefficients. Approaches to realizing uniformly time-modulated stationary processes with prescribed APSDs and envelope functions are developed. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to verify the new method's effectiveness. Results show that both the target APSD and coherences can be well approximated, but precise approximation cannot always be realized in the high-frequency range. The new approach possesses a simple structure, involves simple algorithms, and applies to time-independent spectral coherence models, making it an efficient method compared with existing methods.

Structure of the Gonghe Sedimentary Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: evidence from teleseismicPwaves recorded by a dense seismic array

SUMMARYThe Gonghe Basin in the northeast Tibetan Plateau presents significant potential for hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal resources. A 1990 Mw 6.4 earthquake in the basin furthers the need for an improved understanding of its sedimentary structure. In this study, we utilize data from a dense seismic array of 88 short-period seismometers deployed at an interstation spacing of approximately 3 km to scrutinize the sedimentary structure of the Gonghe Basin. By analysing teleseismic P waveforms, we identify P-to-S converted waves (Ps wave) originating from the sedimentary basement. We then determine the delay time between the Ps waves and the direct P waves (P wave) through waveform cross-correlation. By integrating this delay time with empirical velocity structure models, HDR borehole data and results from teleseismic receiver function analysis, we derive a sediment thickness model of the Gonghe Basin for the Qabqa geothermal area. Our findings reveal a gradual increase in sediment thickness from around 500 m in the east to approximately 3000 m in the west, which is consistent with other geophysical surveys and borehole data. The thick sediments in the basin could potentially serve as an excellent thermal storage cover for HDR. The strong ground motion simulation using our sediment thickness model shows that thick sediments can amplify seismic waves, increasing the risk of seismic hazards. Moreover, our study indicates that the clear Ps waves can be effectively extracted to construct a dependable sediment thickness model using teleseismic P waves recorded by a short-period dense seismic array.

Soil–Structure Interaction Effects on a Regional Scale through Ground-Motion Simulations and Reduced Order Models: A Case Study from the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills Mainshock

ABSTRACT We demonstrate the effects of soil–structure interaction (SSI) for three idealized building typologies on a regional scale, using a simulated earthquake scenario of the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills mainshock in southern California as an example. All the three buildings lie on shallow foundations, and they are subject to three-component simulated ground motions. To carry out this task, we develop a reduced order model (ROM) for each building typology that accounts for the effects of SSI on the building system in the time domain. We specifically use ensemble Kalman inversion (EnKI) to extract the soil impedance values from fully coupled soil–foundation–structure interaction simulations; and we interpolate the EnKI results to derive analytical functions that span the range of applicability of the soil impedance model. We then verify our ROMs by comparing results to fully coupled soil–foundation–structure interaction simulations, also known as direct modeling methods. We finally populate the simulation grid across southern California with the verified building ROMs, and interpret the responses in the form of maps that represent urban-scale effects of SSI on the seismic demand parameters such as maximum displacement, acceleration, and interstory drift. We also identify areas where the effects of SSI, given the resonant characteristics of a specific building, the foundation typology, and the local site conditions, lead to higher seismic demand relative to the fixed-base response.

Simulation of strong ground motions of 1991 Uttarkashi (M 7) and 1999 Chamoli (M 6.6) earthquakes using modified hybrid technique

Simulation of strong ground motions of 1991 Uttarkashi (M 7) and 1999 Chamoli (M 6.6) earthquakes using modified hybrid technique

Wavelet packets-based simulation of non-stationary multivariate ground motions

This study proposes a novel approach to simulate non-stationary multivariate earthquake accelerograms for the seismic analysis of extended structures. This approach is based on an extension of the traditional stochastic decomposition technique applied to the wavelet packet theory using the spectral representation method. Using the advantages of a wavelet packet to identify the time and frequency characteristics of ground motion effectively, the generated recordings successfully reflected the non-stationarity in both the time and frequency domains. Accordingly, the spatial correlation trend was consistent with the selected coherence function. Compared to the ground motions observed using the traditional method, the proposed approach was exemplified by simulating ensembles of ground motions at three points spaced 200 m apart. The multivariate ground motions simulated by different methods were applied as multi-support excitations for the dynamic time–history analysis of a 190 m continuous rigid-frame box girder bridge. Notable variations in structural response were observed when considering the non-stationarity of the frequency domain, contrasting with the cases where it was not taken into account. This study provides an effective approach for generating non-stationary multivariate earthquake accelerograms, which is of great significance for structural response analysis in engineering applications.

A Machine-Learning-Based Software for the Simulation of Regional Characteristic Ground Motion

Ground-motion simulations provide input time history data required for designing and assessing structures; however, the simulations conducted by the currently available tools only match the design spectrum without verifying if the statistical characteristics of the spectrum and duration are satisfied. A ground-motion simulation software was developed to resolve these issues. The developed software employs machine learning methods to match the amplitude, spectrum, and duration features of the target region. Principal component analysis is employed to extract features from the actual ground-motion database to detect characteristic ground motions and predict the target acceleration amplitude, response spectrum, and duration, based on the response spectrum and duration prediction equations. The results show that the simulated ground motion can match the amplitude, spectrum, and duration characteristics well. Therefore, the simulated ground motion can provide more reasonable input for the structure. Moreover, the developed software provides visualization functions that enable the user to determine the target area and obtain the amplitude field intuitively.

Simulating the strong ground motion of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding, Sichuan, China Earthquake

Stochastic finite-fault simulations are effective for simulating ground motions and are widely used in engineering to determine the impacts of ground motion and develop relevant predictive equations. In this study, the source, path, and site amplification coefficient of western Sichuan Province, China, and stochastic finite-fault simulations were used to simulate the acceleration time series, Fourier amplitude spectra, and 5% damped response spectra of 28 strong-motion stations with rupture distances within 300 km of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding earthquake. The simulation results of 14 stations at rupture distances of 45–185 km match the observation. However, the simulation results of 3 near- and 6 far-field stations at rupture distances of 12–36 km and 222–286 km, respectively, were obviously deviated from the observations. Simulation results of the near-field stations are larger than the observations at high frequencies (>6 Hz). The discrepancy likely comes from the nonlinear site effect of near-field stations, which reduced the site amplification at high frequencies. Simulation result of the far-field stations is smaller than the observation at frequencies above 1 Hz. As these stations are located close to the Longmenshan Fault Zone (LFZ), thus, we obtained a new quality factor (Q) from data of historical events and stations located around LFZ. Using the new Q value, the discrepancies of the high-frequency simulation results of the far-field stations were corrected. This result indicated that the laterally varying Q values can be used to address the impact of strong crustal lateral heterogeneity on simulation.

Seismic Responses of an Isolated Long-span Bridge using Frequency Domain and Time Dependent Procedures

Seismic behavior of an isolated bridge is analyzed in the frequency domain under the effects of nonstationary ground motions. For dynamic solutions, different ground environments are considered by simulating nonstationary quakes that can be represented from bedrock to soft ground level. In the simulations, power spectral functions and filtered white noise model are adopted for spectral densities of the earthquake excitations. Various computer algorithms have been developed for earthquake simulations, establishing the bridge finite element model and stochastic solutions. Twenty simulated ground motions are used for each soil profile and the parameters of Rayleigh dispersion are estimated by evaluating the system responses for each ensemble. A number of peak response factors dependent on soil conditions are presented for seismic responses. In addition, extreme value distributions of the responses are shown with the probability of exceeding functions and tables. The responses are discussed for the specific exceedance level of probabilities used in probabilistic design process. The stochastic analyses generally yielded responses consistent with time domain solutions. Exceedance probability functions of the peak responses were obtained in a close relationship. However, the probability distributions of the responses decomposed for the soft soil case and they displayed a wider dispersion even for low exceedance levels. The peak responses are expressed with some exceedance probabilities. In the estimation of response variations, this study showed the practicality of the frequency domain method and the results revealed higher peak response factors and variances for softer soil conditions. Furthermore, this study indicated that the frequency domain procedure is an effective tool in the obtaining of nonstationary seismic responses.

From ambient vibration data analysis to 1D ground-motion prediction of the Mj 5.9 and the Mj 6.5 Kumamoto earthquakes in the Kumamoto alluvial plain, Japan

We present horizontal ground motion predictions at a soft site in the Kumamoto alluvial plain for the Mj 5.9 and Mj 6.5 Kumamoto earthquakes of April 2016, in the framework of an international blind prediction exercise. Such predictions were obtained by leveraging all available information which included: (i) analysis of earthquake ground motions; (ii) processing of ambient vibration data (AMV); and (iii) 1D ground response analysis. Spectral analysis of earthquake ground-motion data were used to obtain empirical estimates of the prediction site amplification function, with evidence of an amplification peak at about 1.2 Hz. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio analysis of AMV confirmed this resonance frequency and pointed out also a low-frequency resonance around 0.3 Hz at the prediction site. AMV were then processed by cross-correlation, modified spatial autocorrelation and high-resolution beamforming methods to retrieve the 1D shear-wave velocity (Vs) structure at the prediction site by joint inversion of surface-wave dispersion and ellipticity curves. The use of low frequency dispersion curve and ellipticity data allowed to retrieve a reference Vs profile down to few thousand meters depth which was then used to perform 1D equivalent-linear simulations of the M 5.9 event, and both equivalent-linear and nonlinear simulations of the M 6.5 event at the target site. Adopting quantitative goodness-of-fit metrics based on time–frequency representation of the signals, we obtained fair-to-good agreement between 1D predictions and observations for the Mj 6.5 earthquake and a poor agreement for the Mj 5.9 earthquake. In terms of acceleration response spectra, while ground-motion overpredictions were obtained for the Mj 5.9 event, simulated ground motions for the Mj 6.5 earthquake severely underestimate the observations, especially those obtained by the nonlinear approach.Graphical

Use of Fourier phase characteristics and effective stress analyses for post-earthquake ground motion estimation: application to ESG6 blind prediction steps 2&3 dataset and JMA accelerometric data

After the occurrence of a large earthquake, engineering seismologists are often requested to estimate strong ground motions at a site where strong motion data were not obtained. The goal of this study was to test the ability of a class of methods that uses Fourier phase characteristics for the post-earthquake ground motion estimation, making use of the precious opportunity provide by the ESG6 Blind Prediction Steps 2&3. It was also part of the goal of this study to test the performance of the effective stress analyses to account for soil nonlinearity. In addition to the dataset provided by the organizer of the blind prediction, the author used additional accelerometric data from a nearby JMA site. To simulate ground motions for an M5.9 earthquake at the target site “KUMA”, the Fourier amplitude spectrum was estimated from the spectral ratio between KUMA and the nearby JMA site. The Fourier phase spectrum was approximated by the spectrum of another event at KUMA. Comparison between the estimated and recorded ground motions after the blind prediction revealed that the estimated ground motions were fairly consistent with the observed ground motions, indicating the effectiveness of the method when the rupture process of the target event is simple and the soil nonlinearity at the target site is not significant. To simulate ground motions at KUMA for the M6.5 foreshock and the M7.3 mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the author conducted effective stress analyses using a program called “FLIP” to account for soil nonlinearity. Comparison between the estimated and recorded ground motions after the blind prediction indicated that the low-frequency components were overestimated and the high-frequency components were underestimated. The strong soil nonlinearity considered in the effective stress analyses was the main cause of the discrepancy. One explanation for this result could be that the nonlinear soil behavior at KUMA during the foreshock and the mainshock was not a strong one. Another explanation could be that the effect of soil nonlinearity was already included in the records at JMA and the effect of soil nonlinearity was double counted in the results submitted by the author.Graphical

An equivalent damping ratio that accounts for ground-motion spectral shape for displacement-based design of flag-shaped hysteresis systems

Direct displacement–based design (DDBD) methodologies simplify the estimation of the seismic deformation demands of a nonlinear system by replacing it with an equivalent linear system that is characterized by an effective stiffness and equivalent damping ratio (EDR). The calculated EDR for flag-shaped hysteresis relationships vary greatly among existing DDBD methodologies, and these methodologies display a strong bias according to the shape of the ground-motion response spectrum. In the work reported here, the limitations of existing methods are demonstrated for three sets of ground-motions: a set of far-field ground-motions, a set of near-field ground-motions, and a set of physics-based simulated ground-motions that account for the effects of a deep sedimentary basin. The effect of spectral shape can be quantified by a new measure of spectral shape that is based on the spectral displacement ordinates between the system’s initial and equivalent periods. To address the limitations of existing methodologies, a new equation for calculating EDR was developed based on numerous nonlinear history analyses for all three sets of ground-motions and for a wide range of systems with flag-shaped hysteresis. In comparison with existing equations, the proposed equation for calculating EDR improves the accuracy of the DDBD methodology by lowering the bias and dispersion of the ratio between the displacement calculated by nonlinear analysis and the displacement calculated with the equivalent linear system. The usage of the new EDR equation in DDBD requires iteration, but neither numerical modeling nor analysis is needed. Specific steps of the application are demonstrated for a system with a flag-shaped hysteresis.

Study on multidimensional and multipoint seafloor spatial ground motion simulation under an ice-water layer and the dynamic response of a cross-sea bridge

A combined ice-water reflection coefficient is developed to measure the effect of saltwater and floating ice on seabed ground motions to explore the effect of floating ice on seafloor ground motions. The combined reflection coefficient is made up of three parts: the reflection coefficient of the seawater layer, the transmission coefficient of the water layer, and the reflection coefficient of the ice layer. The combined reflection coefficient analyzes the reflection, transmission, and refraction pathways of seismic waves from the soil layer to the water layer, then to the ice layer and air, and then reflects the attenuation principle of seismic waves in an ice-water layer based on the mechanical parameters of the soil layer, water layer, ice layer, and air. The spatial coherence effect, traveling wave effect, and local site effect are then addressed using the trigonometric series method, and the ice-water layer combined reflection coefficient is utilized to analyze the influence of offshore complex sites on seafloor spatial ground motion. Under the floating ice and seawater layer, an artificial synthetic approach of multidimensional multipoint spatial ground motion is described. The random ice load time history was artificially produced using the ice load spectrum theory and the recorded sea ice parameters. The random response of a long-span cable-stayed bridge is investigated under the combined action of seafloor spatial ground motion and random ice load, and the structural responses of the bridge and tower vary substantially under the combined action of ground motion and ice load.

Broadband ground motion simulation using a hybrid approach of the May 21, 2021 M7.4 earthquake in Maduo, Qinghai, China

In this study, the broadband ground motions of the 2021 M7.4 Maduo earthquake were simulated to overcome the scarcity of ground motion recordings and the low resolution of macroseismic intensity map in sparsely populated high-altitude regions. The simulation was conducted with a hybrid methodology, combining a stochastic high-frequency simulation with a low-frequency ground motion simulation, from the regional 1-D velocity structure model and the Wang WM et al. (2022) source rupture model, respectively. We found that the three-component waveforms simulated for specific stations matched the waveforms recorded at those stations, in terms of amplitude, duration, and frequency content. The validation results demonstrate the ability of the hybrid simulation method to reproduce the main characteristics of the observed ground motions for the 2021 Maduo earthquake over a broad frequency range. Our simulations suggest that the official map of macroseismic intensity tends to overestimate shaking by one intensity unit. Comparisons of simulations with empirical ground motion models indicate generally good consistency between the simulated and empirically predicted intensity measures. The high-frequency components of ground motions were found to be more prominent, while the low-frequency components were not, which is unexpected for large earthquakes. Our simulations provide valuable insight into the effects of source complexity on the level and variability of the resulting ground motions. The acceleration and velocity time histories and corresponding response spectra were provided for selected representative sites where no records were available. The simulated results have important implications for evaluating the performance of engineering structures in the epicentral regions of this earthquake and for estimating seismic hazards in the Tibetan regions where no strong ground motion records are available for large earthquakes.

Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

AbstractThe Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) is the largest strike‐slip fault in Iceland and poses a high seismic risk to coastal communities. To investigate physics‐based constraints on earthquake hazards, we construct three fault system models of varying geometric complexity and model 79 3‐D multi‐fault dynamic rupture scenarios in the HFFZ. By assuming a simple regional prestress and varying hypocenter locations, we analyze the rupture dynamics, fault interactions, and the associated ground motions up to 2.5 Hz. All models account for regional seismotectonics, topo‐bathymetry, 3‐D subsurface velocity, viscoelastic attenuation, and off‐fault plasticity, and we explore the effect of fault roughness. The rupture scenarios obey earthquake scaling relations and predict magnitudes comparable to those of historical events. We show how fault system geometry and segmentation, hypocenter location, and prestress can affect the potential for rupture cascading, leading to varying slip distributions across different portions of the fault system. Our earthquake scenarios yield spatially heterogeneous near‐field ground motions modulated by geometric complexities, topography, and rupture directivity, particularly in the near‐field. The average ground motion attenuation characteristics of dynamic rupture scenarios of comparable magnitudes and mean stress drop are independent of variations in source complexity, magnitude‐consistent and in good agreement with the latest regional empirical ground motion models. However, physics‐based ground motion variability changes considerably with fault‐distance and increases for unilateral compared to bilateral ruptures. Systematic variations in physics‐based near‐fault ground motions provide important insights into the mechanics and potential earthquake hazard of large strike‐slip fault systems, such as the HFFZ.

Stochastic Ground-Motion Simulation of the 2021 Mw 5.9 Woods Point Earthquake: Facilitating Local Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Australia

ABSTRACT The 2021 Mw 5.9 Woods Point event is the largest onshore earthquake that has occurred in the recorded history of southeastern Australia since European settlement. To study its source and ground-motion characteristics and to extract information for local seismic hazard analysis, we employ a stochastic finite-fault simulation approach to simulate ground motions for this event based on the observations collected from 36 onshore stations. We determine the regional distance-dependent attenuation parameters using the horizontal Fourier acceleration amplitude spectrum in the frequency range of 0.1–20 Hz. We parameterize path parameters using different models to consider uncertainties and sensitivities. To investigate local site effects, we construct a VS30-based site amplification model. Source parameters are then determined by fitting the theoretical Brune’s ω2 model with a reference Fourier source spectrum at 1.0 km. The κ0 value for the reference rock site is estimated as κ0=0.01 s, and dynamic stress drop is found to be 41.0 MPa by minimizing the overall absolute residual of 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration. We validate the simulations by comparing simulated and observed ground motions in terms of various intensity measurements; analyses of residuals show that the simulations are in good agreement with observations (average residual is close to 0). To facilitate future probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, six selected ground-motion models are ranked using the deviance information criteria based on an independent data set consisting of field observations and simulated ground motions.