Ground Deformation Rate Research Articles

Attenuation of coda waves in the SW of High-Atlas area, Morocco

We investigate attenuation scattering and loss properties in Souss basin (SW of High-Atlas) as a transition zone between the High and Anti Atlas ranges. This district consists in a thinned crustal patch with shallow seismicity and loose sedimentary trenches that perform an important contribution to augment seismic attenuation. So far, no coda waves approach in our knowledge have been used to draw satisfying outputs about the attenuation properties in the region. Therefore, this update suggests to correlate the lateral changes of seismic attenuation to different characteristics and asperities i.e. seismic activity, crustal age and thickness, heat flow, and ground deformation rate. To do so, we analysed coda waves derived from waveform data of more than 23 local earthquakes from seven broadband seismometers recorded during 2010–2012 period. As a starter, we utilized the backscattering model which defines the seismic attenuation as inversely proportional to quality factor by the equation (A=1Qc). Qc estimates were deducted at various central frequency bands 1.5, 3.0, 6.0, 9.0, 12.0 and 18.0 Hz according to different lapses times. The estimated average frequency dependence quality factor gives relation Qc=120f1,01, while the average Qc values vary from 149 at 1.5 Hz to 1895 at 18 Hz central frequencies. We observed an intimate dependence between quality factor and frequency ranges, which reflects the complexity of geological/geophysical pattern in the Souss basin and the presence of a variety of heterogeneities within the underlying crust.

Long-term flood-hazard modeling for coastal areas using InSAR measurements and a hydrodynamic model: The case study of Lingang New City, Shanghai

In this paper, we study long-term coastal flood risk of Lingang New City, Shanghai, considering 100- and 1000-year coastal flood return periods, local seal-level rise projections, and long-term ground subsidence projections. TanDEM-X satellite data acquired in 2012 were used to generate a high-resolution topography map, and multi-sensor InSAR displacement time-series were used to obtain ground deformation rates between 2007 and 2017. Both data sets were then used to project ground deformation rates for the 2030s and 2050s. A 2-D flood inundation model (FloodMap-Inertial) was employed to predict coastal flood inundation for both scenarios. The results suggest that the sea-level rise, along with land subsidence, could result in minor but non-linear impacts on coastal inundation over time. The flood risk will primarily be determined by future exposure and vulnerability of population and property in the floodplain. Although the flood risk estimates show some uncertainties, particularly for long-term predictions, the methodology presented here could be applied to other coastal areas where sea level rise and land subsidence are evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Measuring Urban Subsidence in the Rome Metropolitan Area (Italy) with Sentinel-1 SNAP-StaMPS Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Land subsidence in urban environments is an increasingly prominent aspect in the monitoring and maintenance of urban infrastructures. In this study we update the subsidence information over Rome and its surroundings (already the subject of past research with other sensors) for the first time using Copernicus Sentinel-1 data and open source tools. With this aim, we have developed a fully automatic processing chain for land deformation monitoring using the European Space Agency (ESA) SentiNel Application Platform (SNAP) and Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS). We have applied this automatic processing chain to more than 160 Sentinel-1A images over ascending and descending orbits to depict primarily the Line-Of-Sight ground deformation rates. Results of both geometries were then combined to compute the actual vertical motion component, which resulted in more than 2 million point targets, over their common area. Deformation measurements are in agreement with past studies over the city of Rome, identifying main subsidence areas in: (i) Fiumicino; (ii) along the Tiber River; (iii) Ostia and coastal area; (iv) Ostiense quarter; and (v) Tivoli area. Finally, post-processing of Persistent Scatterer Inteferometry (PSI) results, in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment, for the extraction of ground displacements on urban infrastructures (including road networks, buildings and bridges) is considered.

Interseismic Ground Deformation and Fault Slip Rates in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area From Two Decades of Space Geodetic Data

AbstractThe detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. Here we combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS‐1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike‐slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long‐wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long‐wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault‐parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment‐compaction processes, respectively.

GROUND SUBSIDENCE ALONG SHANGHAI METRO LINE 6 BY PS-InSAR METHOD

Abstract. With the rapid development of urban economy, convenient, safe, and efficient urban rail transit has become the preferred method for people to travel. In order to ensure the safety and sustainable development of urban rail transit, the PS-InSAR technology with millimeter deformation measurement accuracy has been widely applied to monitor the deformation of urban rail transit. In this paper, 32 scenes of COSMO-SkyMed descending images and 23 scenes of Envisat ASAR images covering the Shanghai Metro Line 6 acquired from 2008 to 2010 are used to estimate the average deformation rate along line-of-sight (LOS) direction by PS-InSAR method. The experimental results show that there are two main subsidence areas along the Shanghai Metro Line 6, which are located between Wuzhou Avenue Station to Wulian Road Station and West Gaoke Road Station to Gaoqing Road Station. Between Wuzhou Avenue Station and Wulian Road Station, the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of COSMO-SkyMed images is −9.92 mm/year, and the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of Envisat ASAR images is −8.53 mm/year. From the West Gaoke Road Station to the Gaoqing Road Station, the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of COSMO-SkyMed images is −15.53 mm/year, and the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of Envisat ASAR images is −17.9 mm/year. The results show that the ground deformation rates obtained by two SAR platforms with different wavelengths, different sensors and different incident angles have good consistence with each other, and also that of spirit leveling.

Multi-Temporal DInSAR to Characterise Landslide Ground Deformations in a Tropical Urban Environment: Focus on Bukavu (DR Congo)

Landslides can lead to high impacts in less developed countries, particularly in tropical environments where a combination of intense rainfall, active tectonics, steep topography, and high population density can be found. However, the processes controlling landslide initiation and their evolution through time remains poorly understood. Here we show the relevance of the use of the multi-temporal differential radar interferometric (DInSAR) technique to characterise ground deformations associated with landslides in the rapidly-expanding city of Bukavu (DR Congo). We use 70 COSMO-SkyMed synthetic aperture radar images acquired between March 2015 and April 2016 with a mean revisiting time of eight days to produce ground deformation rate maps and displacement time series using the small baseline subset approach. We find that various landslide processes of different ages, mechanisms, and states of activity can be identified. Ground deformations revealed by DInSAR are found consistent with field observations and differential GPS measurements. Our analysis highlights the ability of DInSAR to grasp landslide deformation patterns affecting the complex tropical-urban environment of the city of Bukavu. However, longer time series will be needed to infer landside responses to climate, seismic, and anthropogenic drivers.

Analysis of Secular Ground Motions in Istanbul from a Long-Term InSAR Time-Series (1992–2017)

The identification and measurement of ground deformations in urban areas is of great importance for determining the vulnerable parts of the cities that are prone to geohazards, which is a crucial element of both sustainable urban planning and hazard mitigation. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series analysis is a very powerful tool for the operational mapping of ground deformation related to urban subsidence and landslide phenomena. With an analysis spanning almost 25 years of satellite radar observations, we compute an InSAR time series of data from multiple satellites (European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2, Envisat, Sentinel-1A, and its twin sensor Sentinel-1B) in order to investigate the spatial extent and rate of ground deformation in the megacity of Istanbul. By combining the various multi-track InSAR datasets (291 images in total) and analysing persistent scatterers (PS-InSAR), we present mean velocity maps of ground surface displacement in selected areas of Istanbul. We identify several sites along the terrestrial and coastal regions of Istanbul that underwent vertical ground subsidence at varying rates, from 5 ± 1.2 mm/yr to 15 ± 2.1 mm/yr. The results reveal that the most distinctive subsidence patterns are associated with both anthropogenic factors and relatively weak lithologies along the Haramirede valley in particular, where the observed subsidence is up to 10 ± 2 mm/yr. We show that subsidence has been occurring along the Ayamama river stream at a rate of up to 10 ± 1.8 mm/yr since 1992, and has also been slowing down over time following the restoration of the river and stream system. We also identify subsidence at a rate of 8 ± 1.2 mm/yr along the coastal region of Istanbul, which we associate with land reclamation, as well as a very localised subsidence at a rate of 15 ± 2.3 mm/yr starting in 2016 around one of the highest skyscrapers of Istanbul, which was built in 2010.

Ground deformation associated with exploitation of deep groundwater in Cangzhou City measured by multi-sensor synthetic aperture radar images

The magnitude and severity of ground deformation over time were investigated in Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, China. A total of 17 descending orbit C-band Envisat and 22 ascending orbit L-band Advanced Land Observing Satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images covering the study area between the beginning of 2007 and the end of 2010 were integrated using an enhanced small baseline subset algorithm. The annual rates of ground deformation were retrieved from combined ASAR and PALSAR interferograms in our study area where the average subsidence reached 19 mm/a and subsidence rates up to 51 mm/a were observed. Subsidence in Cangzhou is mainly caused by the excessive abstraction of groundwater from a confined aquifer and consequently the ground subsides evenly over time. A multi-sensor SAR imaging technique was used to survey the extent and severity of ground deformation associated with the exploitation of deep groundwater in Cangzhou City. With abundant observations from different wavebands, the highly accurate ground subsidence result is not only sensitive to minor ground displacement but maintains fine coherence. Additionally, the temporal resolution is improved, and the sampling period is decreased to 5 days.

Episodic ground deformation signals in Thessaly Plain (Greece) revealed by data mining of SAR interferometry time series

ABSTRACTThe Eastern Thessaly Plain presents an area of severe settlement phenomena, owing to the over-exploitation of the underground aquifer systems, causing significant damages to national infrastructures and private properties annually. Herein, both Persistent Scatterers (PS) and Small Baselines (SB) interferometric techniques were applied to study the history of ground deformation along the entire plain. Although the area consisted mostly of agricultural land, a sufficient number of point targets was obtained, well-distributed over the entire plain, permitting the recognition of spatial variations of the displacement field in addition to temporal trends. Our findings outline the southern part of the basin as the mostly affected area, whereas local subsidence patterns of lower magnitude were also recognized elsewhere. Episodes of significant ground subsidence, reaching several centimetres within a few months, characterize the deformation pattern of the area. Although average ground deformation rates do not exceed 2 cm year−1, line-of-sight (LOS) displacements of up to 13 cm were observed, occurring during the summer–autumn periods. A geographic information system (GIS)-based post-processing approach for the analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series is presented, by which these abrupt settlement episodes can be identified in both temporal and spatial domains. The analysis allows the separation between rapid subsidence phenomena during the summer–fall season and annual deformation rates, thereby providing valuable information regarding the actual deformation pattern of the area. The results confirm in situ geological observations, highlighting the unique behaviour of the area due to intense water pumping. The study underlines that average SAR displacement rate maps might be inadequate to describe complex deformation scenarios and could lead to misinterpretations. Exploitation of the full capacity of SAR time series by detailed examination of the displacement histories, through a tailored data-mining strategy, could provide valuable information to geotechnical engineers and planners.

Annual rates of ground deformation (1993–2010) at Campi Flegrei, Italy, revealed by Persistent Scatterer Pair (PSP) – SAR interferometry

Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic district located along the Eastern Tyrrhenian continental margin, Italy, and is worldwide known for dramatic ground deformation phenomena (bradyseism) recorded over the last centuries. The purpose of this article is to present the annual rates of ground deformation fields (average velocity, average acceleration, and combined annual velocity/acceleration) at Campi Flegrei, during almost two decades (years 1993–2010). The research work was conducted based on a temporal analysis and advanced mapping of Persistent Scatterer Pair (PSP) data, obtained from interferometric processing of radar satellite European Remote Sensing-1/2 and Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) scenes of the study area. Patterns and trends of annual PSP velocity have provided a reconstruction of the spatial and temporal variability of ground deformation in terms of uplift and/or subsidence along the satellite line of sight (LOS). The analysis of annual PSP velocity and acceleration has revealed an intense dynamics of the Campi Flegrei caldera collapse-resurgence system, testified by the high PSP velocity and acceleration values, as well as the significant changes in the rates of ground deformation through time. The main results of this research indicate that the largest ground deformation is localized within and around the structural border of the Campi Flegrei caldera and suggest a systematic recurrence of opposite trends (uplift vs. subsidence) in the ground deformation of the inner caldera region with respect to the surrounding areas throughout the analysed time period.

Spatio-temporal evolution of aseismic ground deformation in the Mexicali Valley (Baja California, Mexico) from 1993 to 2010, using differential SAR interferometry

Abstract. Ground deformation in Mexicali Valley, Baja California, Mexico, the southern part of the Mexicali-Imperial valley, is influenced by active tectonics and human activity, mainly that of geothermal fluid extraction in the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field. Significant ground deformation, mainly subsidence (~ 18 cm yr−1), and related ground fissures cause severe damage to local infrastructure. The technique of Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) has been demonstrated to be a very effective remote sensing tool for accurately measuring the spatial and temporal evolution of ground displacements over broad areas. In present study ERS-1/2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR images acquired between 1993 and 2010 were used to perform a historical analysis of aseismic ground deformation in Mexicali Valley, in an attempt to evaluate its spatio-temporal evolution and improve the understanding of its dynamic. For this purpose, the conventional 2-pass DInSAR was used to generate interferograms which were used in stacking procedure to produce maps of annual aseismic ground deformation rates for different periods. Differential interferograms that included strong co-seismic deformation signals were not included in the stacking and analysis. The changes in the ground deformation pattern and rate were identified. The main changes occur between 2000 and 2005 and include increasing deformation rate in the recharge zone and decreasing deformation rate in the western part of the CPGF production zone. We suggested that these changes are mainly caused by production development in the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field.

Methods for monitoring land subsidence and earth fissures in the Western USA

Abstract. Depletion of groundwater resources in many deep alluvial basin aquifers in the Western USA is causing land subsidence, as it does in many regions worldwide. Land subsidence can severely and adversely impact infrastructure by changing the ground elevation, ground slope (grade) and through the development of ground cracks known as earth fissures that can erode into large gullies. Earth fissures have the potential to compromise the foundations of dams, levees, and other infrastructure and cause failure. Subsequent to an evaluation of the overall subsidence experienced in the vicinity of subsidence-impacted infrastructure, a detailed investigation to search for earth fissures, and design and/or mitigation of potentially effected infrastructure, a focused monitoring system should be designed and implemented. Its purpose is to provide data, and ultimately knowledge, to reduce the potential adverse impacts of land subsidence and earth fissure development to the pertinent infrastructure. This risk reduction is realized by quantifying the rate and distribution of ground deformation, and to detect ground rupture if it occurs, in the vicinity of the infrastructure. The authors have successfully designed and implemented monitoring systems capable of quantifying rates and distributions of ground subsidence and detection of ground rupture at multiple locations throughout the Western USA for several types of infrastructure including dams, levees, channels, basins, roadways, and mining facilities. Effective subsidence and earth fissure monitoring requires understanding and quantification of historic subsidence, estimation of potential future subsidence, delineation of the risk for earth fissures that could impact infrastructure, and motivation and resources to continue monitoring through time. A successful monitoring system provides the means to measure ground deformation, grade changes, displacement, and anticipate and assess the potential for earth fissuring. Employing multiple methods, a monitoring strategy utilizes an integrated approach, including both regional and local measurements. Various methods implemented include conventional practices and proven, instrumented in-ground sensing systems. The conventional techniques include repeat optical levelling and global positioning system (GPS) surveys, ground reconnaissance, photo-geological analysis, groundwater monitoring, and tape-extensometers. Advanced techniques include the processing and interpretation of differential interferograms of repeat-pass, satellite-based synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR), borehole tiltmeters, microseismic arrays, excavation of monitoring trenches, and time-domain reflectometry (TDR).

Rapidly accelerating subsidence in the Greater Vancouver region from two decades of ERS-ENVISAT-RADARSAT-2 DInSAR measurements

Rapidly accelerating ground subsidence in the south-western part of British Columbia, the third largest metropolitan area in Canada with over 2.3 million of inhabitants, is estimated using the Multidimensional Small Baseline Subset (MSBAS) advanced Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR), an effective processing strategy for multi-mission, multi-temporal SAR data. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data used in this study consists of seven independent data sets: one ascending and one descending ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT frames, together spanning July 1995–September 2010, and three RADARSAT-2 frames spanning February 2009–October 2012. During the July 1995–October 2012 period we observe fast ground subsidence with a maximum rate of about 2cm/year in the Greater Vancouver region that includes the Fraser River Delta and the cities of Burnaby, Richmond, Surrey, New Westminster and Vancouver. The rapidly accelerating subsidence is observed beneath the Vancouver International Airport, SkyTrain terminal as well as several agricultural and industrial locales. These time series suggest that the subsidence rate at the studied regions does not decrease with time, as suggested in previous studies, but remains steady or increases. These results also demonstrate the importance of acquiring and appropriately estimating longer time series, as previous studies on the same Greater Vancouver area may have misinterpreted the long term ground deformation rate and direction and underestimated the potential hazard. The long term impact of this subsidence on urban infrastructure can be significant and needs to be investigated further.

Evolution and future of the Lusi mud eruption inferred from ground deformation

AbstractThe ongoing eruption of the Lusi mud volcano in East Java, Indonesia offers the unprecedented opportunity to study a large eruption from its beginning to its eventual end. We use new observations of ground deformation obtained from multitemporal interferometric analysis of L‐band synthetic aperture radar data to show that Lusi will stop erupting much sooner than previously anticipated. Using principal component analysis, we find that the rate of ground deformation, and by implication, pressure in the mud source region, has been decaying exponentially with an e‐folding time scale of 2.1 ± 0.4 years. We anticipate that discharge will decrease to 10% of the present rate in 5 years.

LATERAL SPREADING DAMAGE TO SHEET-PILE WALLS AND PILE FOUNDATIONS REPRODUCED BY TSUKUBA LARGE-SCALE SHAKE TABLE

Shaking table tests of two large-scale models with lateral spreading of liquefiable deposit under earthquake ground motions were performed to reveal the failure mechanism of sheet-pile-type quay walls and pile foundations behind them. These tests simulated the lateral spreading behavior of the deposit with slow rate of ground deformation, which was assumed to occur even after earthquake shaking. The test results also indicated that a deposit's residual deformation induced by the cyclic motions due to an earthquake and a structure's inertial force largely influence the deformations of the quay wall and the pile foundation.

Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes

[1] We present a model of effusive silicic volcanic eruptions which relates magma chamber and conduit physics to time-dependent data sets, including ground deformation and extrusion rate. The model involves a deflating chamber which supplies Newtonian magma through a cylindrical conduit. Solidification is approximated as occurring at fixed depth, producing a solid plug that slips along its margins with rate-dependent friction. Changes in tractions acting on the chamber and conduit walls are used to compute surface deformations. Given appropriate material properties and initial conditions, the model predicts the full evolution of an eruption, allowing us to examine the dependence of observables on initial chamber volume, overpressure, and volatile content. Employing multiple data sets in combination with a physics-based model allows for better constraints on these parameters than is possible using kinematic idealizations. Modeling posteruptive deformation provides an improved constraint on the rate of influx into the magma chamber from deeper sources. We compare numerical results to analytical approximations and to data from the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens. For nominal parameters the balance between magma chamber pressure and frictional resistance of the solid plug controls the evolution of the eruption, with little contribution from the fluid magma below the idealized crystallization depth. While rate-dependent plug friction influences the time-dependent evolution of the eruption, it has no control on the final chamber pressure or extruded volume.

A Study of Ground Deformation in the Guangzhou Urban Area with Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

The Interferometric Point Target Analysis (IPTA) technique and Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) images acquired over Hong Kong from 2007–2008 were used to detect ground deformation in the urban area of Guangzhou city in South China. A ground deformation rate map with scattered distribution of point targets shows the maximum subsidence (rise) rate as high as -26 to -20 mma-1 (16–21 mma-1), implying that the study area is an active zone for ground deformation. Based on the point target map, a contour ground deformation rate map is generated. The map shows three major subsidence zones located in the middle-west, the east, and the southwest of the study area, respectively. All the six ground collapse accidents that occurred in 2007–2008 fall within the subsidence zones, qualitatively validating the IPTA results. Ground subsidence and geological conditions on Datansha Island are examined. The results indicate that the local geological conditions, such as limestone Karst geomorphology as well as silt layers characterized by high water content, high void ratio, high compressibility, low bearing capacity and low shear strength, and underground engineering projects are responsible for ground subsidence and ground collapse accidents occurred there.

Seismological and SAR signature of unrest at Nisyros caldera, Greece

Nisyros island, a Quaternary volcanic center located at the SE of the Aegean Volcanic Arc, has been in the past characterized by periods of intense seismic activity accompanied sometimes by hydrothermal explosions, the last one being in 1887. The recent long lasting episode of unrest (1995–1998) in the area is the first instrumentally documented providing information on the behavior of the volcano. Evidence from seismicity and SAR interferometry suggests that the presently active part of the Kos–Nisyros volcano-tectonic complex is located at the NW coast of Nisyros island defining an area much smaller than the whole volcano-tectonic area. Seismicity patterns vary both temporally and spatially consistently with different rates of vertical ground deformation inferred from SAR interferometry. These observations help us to discuss the different elements controlling the behavior of the volcanic system such as: the existence, location and timing of magma chamber inflation, the occurrence of tensile failure at the boundaries of the chamber and the possibility of magmatic fluids being expelled to form a shallow magmatic intrusion, the seismic failure and migration of hypocenters indicating shallow magma transport.

Electronic distance measuring network monitoring during the Rabaul seismicity/deformational crisis of 1983–1985

Following a dramatic increase in the seismicity and rate of ground deformation at Rabaul Caldera in September 1983, an electronic distance measuring (EDM) network was established in November–December 1983 to provide additional surveillance of the developing volcanic hazard. The network and operational procedure were designed to monitor frequently a large area and to obtain results rapidly. Initially, data reduction was carried out using the conventional refractive index technique to correct for observed atmospheric variables, but the principle of line ratios using modeled atmospheric variables showed promise for accelerating and simplifying data reduction by obviating meteorological considerations. A standard error of ±1.31 ppm using the line ratio reduction technique favorably compares with results obtained by other researchers. Horizontal strain in the east central part of the caldera increased at monthly rates of 10–80 ppm, reaching a peak in April 1984. This peak coincided with the highest monthly rate of earthquake occurrence (13,800) and the largest monthly rate of ground uplift (approximately 80 mm). The greatest amount of horizontal ground deformation recorded during the period 1983–1985 was about 400 mm. After April 1984 the strain rates declined gradually and, in relation to other components of deformation, probably resumed a precrisis level by mid‐1985. Horizontal deformation in the southern part of the caldera was relatively large in comparison to the amount of ground tilt and uplift recorded there. Because of the relatively small number of reflector stations, modeling of the EDM data is somewhat inconclusive. However, a Mogi point source model provides a reasonable fit to the observed deformation in the northern part of the caldera. The point source model and simple axisymmetric models do not provide a good match to the deformation recorded in the southern part of the caldera. The dominance of horizontal deformation there could be explained by a dyke intrusion.

Long Valley volcanic update

A relatively low level of earthquake activity and reduced rates of ground deformation during the past year have led U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists to conclude that the likelihood of imminent volcanic activity at Long Valley, Calif., is reduced from that of mid‐1982 through 1983.In a letter dated July 11, 1984, USGS Director Dallas Peck advised the California Office of Emergency Services that, based on the assessment of the current situation, a volcanic eruption does not pose an immediate threat to public safety in the Long Valley region.