Greenland Ice Sheet Research Articles

Expansion of supraglacial lake area, volume and extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1985 to 2023

Expansion of supraglacial lake area, volume and extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1985 to 2023

Comparison of Multiple Methods for Supraglacial Melt-Lake Volume Estimation in Western Greenland During the 2021 Summer Melt Season

Supraglacial melt-lakes form and evolve along the western edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet and have proven to play a significant role in ice sheet surface hydrology and mass balance. Prior methods to quantify melt-lake volume have relied upon Landsat-8 optical imagery, available at 30 m spatial resolution but with temporal resolution limited by satellite overpass times and cloud cover. We propose two novel methods to quantify the volume of meltwater stored in these lakes, including a high-resolution surface DEM (ArcticDEM) and an ablation model using daily averaged automated weather station data. We compare our methods to the depth-reflectance method for five supraglacial melt-lakes during the 2021 summer melt season. We find agreement between the depth-reflectance and DEM lake infilling methods, within +/−15% for most cases, but our ablation model underproduces by 0.5–2 orders of magnitude the volumetric melt needed to match our other methods, and with a significant lag in meltwater onset for routing into the lake basin. Further information regarding energy balance parameters, including insolation and liquid precipitation amounts, is needed for adequate ablation modelling. Despite the differences in melt-lake volume estimates, our approach in combining remote sensing and meteorological methods provides a framework for analysis of seasonal melt-lake evolution at significantly higher spatial and temporal scales, to understand the drivers of meltwater production and its influence on the spatial distribution and extent of meltwater volume stored on the ice sheet surface.

Greenland Ice Sheet's Distinct Calving Styles Are Identified in Terminus Change Timeseries

Greenland Ice Sheet's Distinct Calving Styles Are Identified in Terminus Change Timeseries

Vertical bedrock shifts reveal summer water storage in Greenland ice sheet.

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is at present the largest single contributor to global-mass-induced sea-level rise, primarily because of Arctic amplification on an increasingly warmer Earth1-5. However, the processes of englacial water accumulation, storage and ultimate release remain poorly constrained. Here we show that a noticeable amount of the summertime meltwater mass is temporally buffered along the entire GrIS periphery, peaking in July and gradually reducing thereafter. Our results arise from quantifying the spatiotemporal behaviour of the total mass of water leaving the GrIS by analysing bedrock elastic deformation measured by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations. The buffered meltwater causes a subsidence of the bedrock close to GNSS stations of at most approximately 5 mm during the melt season. Regionally, the duration of meltwater storage ranges from 4.5 weeks in the southeast to 9 weeks elsewhere. We also show that the meltwater runoff modelled from regional climate models may contain systematic errors, requiring further scaling of up to about 20% for the warmest years. These results reveal a high potential for GNSS data to constrain poorly known hydrological processes in Greenland, forming the basis for improved projections of future GrIS melt behaviour and the associated sea-level rise6.

How does a change in climate variability impact the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance?

Abstract. Given the long response time of ice sheets, simulations of the Greenland ice sheet typically exceed the availability of input climate data to reliably simulate the fast processes underlying surface mass balance. Strong feedback processes are known to make the mass balance sensitive to inter- and intra-annual variability. Even simulations with climate models do not always cover the full period of interest, motivating bridging these gaps using relatively coarsely resolved climate reconstructions or temporal interpolation methods. However, both of these approaches usually only provide information about the climatological average but not variability. We investigate how this simplification impacts the surface mass balance using the BErgen Snow SImulator. The model was run for up to 500 years using the same atmospheric climatology but different synthetic variabilities. While changing inter-annual variations has an impact of less than 5 % on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, neglecting intra-annual variability by using a daily climatology causes a 40 % change in mass balance. Decomposing the total effect into contributions from different input variables, the biggest contributor is precipitation followed by temperature. Using a daily climatology, a small amount of snowfall every day overestimates the albedo and thus surface mass balance (SMB). We propose a correction that re-captures the effect of intermittent precipitation, reducing the SMB overestimation to 15 %–25 %. We conclude that simulations of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance should be forced with a transient climate, in particular for models that are calibrated with transient data.

Playing to Survive: Children and Innovation During the Little Ice Age in Greenland

Greenland is the world's largest island, but only a narrow strip of land between the Inland Ice and the sea is inhabitable. Yet, the Norse chose to settle here around ad 986. During the eleventh century ad, precontact Inuit people moved into Greenland from northern Alaska via Canada. Although the two cultures faced the same climatic changes during the Little Ice Age, the Inuit thrived, while the Norse did not, for multiple causes. The authors focus on one of these causes, the hitherto overlooked contribution of young children's learning strategies to societal adaptation. The detailed analysis of a large corpus of play objects reveals striking differences between the children's material culture in the two cultures: rich and diverse in the precontact Inuit material and more limited and normative in the Norse. Drawing on insights from developmental psychology, the authors discuss possible effects of play objects on children's future adaptability in variable climatic conditions.

Resolution enhancement of SMOS brightness temperatures: Application to melt detection on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

A large part of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the margins of Antarctica are melting every summer, affecting their surface mass balance. Wet/dry snow status has been detected for decades using the peaks of brightness temperature at 19 GHz, and more recently at L-band (1.4 GHz) using both the SMOS and SMAP missions. SMOS owns a longer time series than SMAP with data since 2010, but the 52.5°incidence bin in the Level 3 (L3) product from Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS (CATDS) that was previously used to detect melt suffers from a coarse spatial resolution. For this reason, we developed a new SMOS enhanced resolution brightness temperature (TB) product building on the radiometer version of the Scatterometter Image Reconstruction (rSIR) algorithm. We also exploited the SMOS L1C observations near 40°incidence angle instead of 52.5°as the native spatial resolution of SMOS is better at low incidence. The new product is posted on a 12.5 km polar stereographic grid and covers all the GrIS and Antarctica for 2010–2024 with twice-daily morning and afternoon acquisitions. The effective spatial resolution was evaluated to ∼30 km, a 30% enhancement compared to the SMOS L3TB at 40°and almost a 50% enhancement compared to the SMOS L3TB at 52.5°. Then, we applied a melt detection algorithm to both the enhanced resolution product at 40°and the L3TB product at 52.5°which is used in the literature. The spatial resolution enhancement results not only in the detection of smaller melt regions but also in a widespread increase in the annual number of melt days. This increase is larger than 30 days per year in the GrIS percolation area and on multiple Antarctic ice shelves. This is primarily due to the mix of dry and wet snow regions near the ice shelves grounding line, resulting in lower brightness temperature peaks in the SMOS L3TB product due to a large power spread. These findings highlight the dependence of melt detection in particular, and geophysical applications in general, on the spatial resolution of passive microwave observations. This study provides a new open dataset suitable to monitor melt at the surface and at depth on the two main ice-sheets.

Projections of Greenland periphery glaciers and ice caps’s change

Abstract Rapid global warming has caused drastic mass loss of Greenland’s peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs), which impacts on global sea level rise. To further clarity future GICs changes under different emission scenarios, we used the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to simulate glaciers dynamic and runoff changes from 2015 to 2100. The results show that area and volume of GICs will decrease by 38.88% (SSP1-2.6) to 60.84% (SSP5-8.5) and 47.56% (SSP1-2.6) to 67.10% (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, with regions having larger glacierized areas and being farther from the ocean experiencing less volume loss. Meanwhile, Surface Mass Balance (SMB) of GICs in 2100 is -0.58±0.92, -1.18±1.13, -2.04±0.79 and -3.16±0.96 m w.e. a-1 under four emission scenarios. The runoff under high emission scenarios is greater than that under low emission scenarios, with peak water occurring later in regions with larger glacierized areas and being farther from the ocean.

Modelling lateral meltwater flow and superimposed ice formation atop Greenland's near-surface ice slabs

Abstract At high elevations on the Greenland ice sheet meltwater percolates and refreezes in place, and hence does not contribute to mass loss. However, meltwater generation and associated surface runoff is occurring from increasingly higher altitudes, causing changes in firn stratigraphy that have led to the presence of near-surface ice slabs. These ice slabs force meltwater to flow laterally instead of percolating downwards. Here we present a simple, physics-based quasi-2-D model to simulate lateral meltwater runoff and superimposed ice (SI) formation on top of ice slabs. Using an Eulerian Darcy flow scheme, the model calculates how far meltwater can travel within a melt season and when it appears at the snow surface. Results show that lateral flow is a highly efficient runoff mechanism, as lateral outflow exceeds locally generated meltwater in all model gridcells, with total meltwater discharge sometimes reaching more than 30 times the average amount of in situ generated melt. SI formation, an important process in the formation and thickening of the ice slabs, can retain up to 40% of the available meltwater, and generally delays the appearance of visible runoff. Validating the model against field- or remote-sensing data remains challenging, but the results presented here are a first step towards a more comprehensive understanding and description of the hydrological system in the accumulation zone of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet.

Assessing the effects of fjord geometry on Greenland tidewater glacier stability

Abstract Tidewater glaciers frequently advance and retreat in ways uncoupled from climate forcing. This complicates the task of forecasting the evolution of individual glaciers and the overall Greenland ice sheet, much of which is drained by tidewater glaciers. Past observational research has identified a set of processes collectively known as the tidewater glacier cycle (TGC) to describe tidewater glacier evolution in four stages: the advancing stage, the extended stage, the retreating stage and the retreated stage. Once glacier retreat is initiated, the TGC is thought to depend largely on the glacier's calving rate, which is controlled by fjord geometry. However, there has been little modeling or systematic observational work on the topic. Measuring calving rates directly is challenging and thus we developed an averaged von Mises stress state at the glacier terminus as a calving rate proxy that can be estimated from surface velocities, ice thickness, a terminus position and subglacial topography. We then analyzed 44 tidewater glaciers in Greenland and assessed the current state in the TGC for them. Of the 44 glaciers, we find that fjord geometry is causing instability in ten cases, vs stability in seven, with 11 in rapid retreat and 16 have been historically stable.

Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling

Abstract. The configuration of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum differed to the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the reasons for this are not yet fully understood. These differences likely contributed to the varied deglaciation pathways experienced following the glacial maxima and may have had consequences for the interglacial sea level rise. To understand the differences between the North American Ice Sheet at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima (21 and 140 ka), we perform two perturbed-physics ensembles of 62 simulations using a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model, FAMOUS-ice, with prescribed surface ocean conditions, in which the North American and Greenland ice sheets are dynamically simulated with the Glimmer ice sheet model. We apply an implausibility metric to find ensemble members that match reconstructed ice extent and volumes at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima. We use a resulting set of “plausible” parameters to perform sensitivity experiments to decompose the role of climate forcings (orbit, greenhouse gases) and initial conditions on the final ice sheet configurations. This confirms that the initial ice sheet conditions used in the model are extremely important in determining the difference in final ice volumes between both periods due to the large effect of the ice–albedo feedback. In contrast to evidence of a smaller Penultimate North American Ice Sheet, our results show that the climate boundary conditions at these glacial maxima, if considered in isolation, imply a larger Penultimate Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheet than at the Last Glacial Maximum by around 6 m sea level equivalent. This supports the notion that the growth of the ice sheet prior to the glacial maxima is key in explaining the differences in North American ice volume.

Measurement report: In situ vertical profiles of below-cloud aerosol over the central Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. Surface radiative cooling in polar regions can generate persistent stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. Stable layers below clouds can decouple the cloud layer from the near-surface environment. Under these conditions, surface aerosol measurements are not necessarily representative of the near-cloud or intra-cloud aerosol populations. To better understand the variability in the vertical structure of aerosol properties over the central Greenland Ice Sheet, in situ measurements of aerosol particle size distributions up to cloud base were made at Summit Station in July and August 2023. These measurements identified distinct vertical aerosol layers between the surface- and cloud-base-associated thermodynamic decoupling layers. Such decoupling layers occur 49 % of the time during the summer in central Greenland, suggesting that surface aerosol measurements are insufficient for describing the cloud-relevant aerosol population half of the time. Experience during this first measurement season demonstrated the ability of a tethered-balloon platform to operate effectively under icing conditions and at low surface pressure (< 680 hPa). The results presented here illustrate the value of vertically resolved in situ measurements of aerosol properties in developing a nuanced understanding of the aerosol effects on cloud properties in polar regions.

Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet on Blocking in Idealized Simulations

Abstract As the only remaining ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays a crucial role in influencing atmospheric circulations, particularly with its rapid melting under global warming. In this paper, the influences of GrIS topography and surface thermal conditions are investigated by a series of aquaplanet experiments. The results show that the GrIS topography induces stationary waves and favors more blocking events through the generation of negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, while it tends to suppress local storm activities through the induced stationary waves. The surface cooling center of the GrIS is found to strengthen the jet streams by enhancing the meridional temperature gradient and thermal wind, while it causes the PV and static stability to increase during near-Greenland blocking days, thereby disfavoring blocking onset. Altogether, the topography and surface thermal effects of GrIS appear to compete with each other so that the net effect would determine the final response. Nevertheless, nonlinearity is found in both GrIS-topography alone and GrIS-surface temperature alone experiments, where nonlinear responses of atmospheric circulation are detected when the GrIS topography height or surface temperature exceeds their critical values, respectively. Hence, through this study, the response of the blocking in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects of topography and surface thermal conditions may shed light on comprehending the underlying mechanism of blocking alteration in a changing climate. Significance Statement Although there have been numerous observation-based studies showing that the blocking around Greenland has increased over the past few decades, which is a predominant driver in accelerating the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melting, the reasons for this change are still unclear. In addition, the impact of GrIS on blocking still needs investigation. Through idealized aquaplanet simulations, this study examines the effect of GrIS’s topography and surface thermal conditions upon blocking onset. It suggests the nonlinearity of the blocking response in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects in the variation of the height and surface temperature of GrIS. This study will enhance our understanding of possible changes in blocking due to global warming.

Narwhal (Monodon monoceros) associations with Greenland summer meltwater release

AbstractClimate change is rapidly transforming the coastal margins of Greenland. At the same time, there is increasing recognition that marine‐terminating glaciers provide unique and critical habitats to ice‐associated top predators. We investigated the connection between a top predator occupying glacial fjord systems in Northwest Greenland and the properties of Atlantic‐origin water and marine‐terminating glaciers through a multiyear interdisciplinary project. Using passive acoustic monitoring, we quantified the summer presence and autumn departure of narwhals (Monodon monoceros) at glacier fronts in Melville Bay and modeled what glacier fjord physical attributes are associated with narwhal occurrence. We found that narwhals are present at glacier fronts after Greenland Ice Sheet peak summer runoff and they remain there during the period when the water column is becoming colder and fresher. Narwhals occupied glacier fronts when ocean temperatures ranged from −0.6 to 0.8°C and salinities between 33.2 and 34.0 psu at around 200 m depth and they departed on their southbound migration between October and November. Narwhals' departure was approximately 4 weeks later in 2019 than in 2018, after an extreme 2019 summer heatwave event that also delayed sea ice formation by 2 months. Our study provides further support for the niche conservative narwhal's preference for cold ocean temperatures. These results may inform projections about how future changes will impact narwhal subpopulations, especially those occupying Greenland glacial fjords.

Surface energy balance closure over melting snow and ice from in situ measurements on the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract Accurately quantifying all the components of the surface energy balance (SEB) is a prerequisite for the reliable estimation of surface melt and the surface mass balance over ice and snow. This study quantifies the SEB closure by comparing the energy available for surface melt, determined from continuous measurements of radiative fluxes and turbulent heat fluxes, to the surface ablation measured on the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2023. We find that the measured daily energy available for surface melt exceeds the observed surface melt by on average 18 ± 30 W m−2 for snow and 12 ± 54 W m−2 for ice conditions (mean ± SD), which corresponds to 46 and 10% of the average energy available for surface melt, respectively. When the surface is not melting, the daily SEB is on average closed within 5 W m−2. Based on the inter-comparison of different ablation sensors and radiometers installed on different stations, and on the evaluation of modelled turbulent heat fluxes, we conclude that measurement uncertainties prevent a better daily to sub-daily SEB closure. These results highlight the need and challenges in obtaining accurate long-term in situ SEB observations for the proper evaluation of climate models and for the validation of remote sensing products.

Atmospheric blocking slows ocean-driven melting of Greenland’s largest glacier tongue

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has contributed to global sea-level rise over the past 20 years. Yet direct observations from the 79 North Glacier (79NG) calving front reveal decreasing Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) temperatures below the ice tongue from 2018 to 2021, leading to reduced ocean heat transport. This is linked to a concurrent decrease in basal melt and thinning rates at the grounding line. The origin of this AIW cooling is traced to a slowdown of the large-scale ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas, driven by European atmospheric blocking that strengthens cold air advection from the central Arctic through the Fram Strait. Blocking has driven major ocean cooling events over the last 50 years and will remain crucial in affecting Northeast Greenland’s glaciers.

Design and performance of ELSA v2.0: an isochronal model for ice-sheet layer tracing

Abstract. We provide a detailed description of the ice-sheet layer age tracer Englacial Layer Simulation Architecture (ELSA) – a model that uses a straightforward method to simulate the englacial stratification of large ice sheets – as an alternative to Eulerian or Lagrangian tracer schemes. ELSA's vertical axis is time, and individual layers of accumulation are modeled explicitly and are isochronal. ELSA is not a standalone ice-sheet model but requires unidirectional coupling to another model providing ice physics and dynamics (the “host model”). Via ELSA's layer tracing, the host model’s output can be evaluated throughout the interior using ice core or radiostratigraphy data. We describe the stability and resolution dependence of this coupled modeling system using simulations of the last glacial cycle of the Greenland ice sheet using one specific host model. Key questions concern ELSA's design to maximize usability, which includes making it computationally efficient enough for ensemble runs, as well as exploring the requirements for offline forcing of ELSA with output from a range of existing ice-sheet models. ELSA is an open source and collaborative project, and this work provides the foundation for a well-documented, flexible, and easily adaptable model code to effectively force ELSA with (any) existing full ice-sheet model via a clear interface.

Retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet leads to divergent patterns of reconfiguration at its freshwater and tidewater margins

Abstract Greenland's marine- and land-terminating glaciers are retreating inland due to climate warming, reconfiguring the way the ice sheet interacts with its proglacial environment. Here we use three decades of satellite imagery to determine whether the ice-sheet margin is becoming more or less exposed to marine and lacustrine processes. During our 1990–2019 study period, we find that the length of ice-sheet perimeter in contact with the ocean shrank by 12.3 ± 3.8% (196.2 ± 10.4 km), due to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers into narrower fjords. On the other hand, we find that the length of the ice-sheet perimeter in contact with freshwater lakes exhibited more divergent trends that is better explored at regional scales. The length of ice–lake boundaries increased in southwest, north and northwest Greenland but declined in southeast and central east Greenland. The magnitude of change we document during our study period leads us to conclude that the ice sheet is poised for further, substantial reconfiguration in the coming decades with consequences for the flux of fresh water, nutrients and primary productivity in Greenland's terrestrial and oceanic environment.

Rising Extreme Meltwater Trends in Greenland Ice Sheet (1950–2022): Surface Energy Balance and Large-Scale Circulation Changes

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events across the GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35%–40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June–August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase in similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase in anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic.

Swedish Icebreaker Is the First to Dig Into Greenland’s Remote Victoria Fjord

Data collected aboard Oden will shed light on the dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet.