Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies Research Articles

Intergovernmental climate change mitigation policies: theory and outcomes

AbstractThis paper develops a framework for analysing intergovernmental relationships around greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies along a cooperation-conflict spectrum that affects the probability of their enactment. Cooperative policies, such as federal fiscal transfers to sub-national governments, facilitate enactment. Coordination policies, including enabling and funding mechanisms, promote interdependence between jurisdictions. Competitive policies, such as federal performance standards and price mechanisms, increase political conflict over authority. We categorise 23 policies developed by over 1,500 state stakeholders into the cooperation/coordination/conflict taxonomy. If scaled to the national level, these policies could reduce GHG emissions by over 3 billion tonnes by 2020 and generate nearly 2.2 million jobs (1.19 per cent above baseline projections). Nearly two-thirds of the job gains are from coordinated and cooperative policy options that are unlikely to occur under the status quo policy process. We recommend a national climate action planning process to reduce GHG emissions while increasing aggregate economic efficiency.

Economic effects of bioenergy policy in the United States and Europe: A general equilibrium approach focusing on forest biomass

Renewable energy is an option for many countries simultaneously seeking to reduce dependence on imported petroleum and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. Forestry can play a role in environmental policies, such as renewable portfolio standards for bioelectricity, renewable fuel standards for biofuels, and forest carbon sequestration. This paper models interactions and interdependencies between bioelectricity and biofuel production, particularly from forest biomass. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to measure the economic effects of bioenergy production from forest products, forest residues, and dedicated energy crops. The land use and emissions impacts on the global economy of revenue-neutral GHG mitigation policies are evaluated. Results show that mandated bioenergy production can substantially reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially through fossil fuel substitution in the electricity sector. Although emissions reductions from bioenergy production in the transportation fuel sector are less dramatic than those in the electricity sector, biofuels also have lower emissions rates than petroleum-based transportation fuels.

Macroeconomic Impacts of the California Global Warming Solutions Act on the Southern California Economy

We evaluate the potential regional macroeconomic impacts of a set of ten greenhouse gas mitigation policy options intended to enable the Southern California Association of Governments to comply with the State's greenhouse gas reduction targets. The Regional Economic Models, Inc. Policy Insight Plus Model, was applied in the analysis by carefully linking technical and microeconomic aspects of each mitigation option to the workings of the regional economy. We took into account key considerations, such as how investment in mitigation options would displace ordinary private business investment and the time-phasing of renewable electricity generation. Our results indicate that the combined ten mitigation policy options could create an annual average employment gain of 21 thousand jobs over the entire planning period from now to 2035, but could also have a negative net present value impact of $17 billion in regional GDP. In the paper, we explain this and other anomalies. Sensitivity analyses of key assumptions and parameters for the Renewable Portfolio Standard indicate that the results are robust. They also provide policy-makers with insights into how to improve the macroeconomic impact of this major policy option.

Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings

Economic growth over the coming centuries is one of the major determinants of today׳s optimal greenhouse gas mitigation policy. At the same time, long-run economic growth is highly uncertain. This paper is the first to evaluate optimal mitigation policy under long-term growth uncertainty in a stochastic integrated assessment model of climate change. The sign and magnitude of the impact depend on preference characteristics and on how damages scale with production. We explain the different mechanisms driving optimal mitigation under certain growth, under uncertain technological progress in the discounted expected utility model, and under uncertain technological progress in a more comprehensive asset pricing model based on Epstein–Zin–Weil preferences. In the latter framework, the dominating uncertainty impact has the opposite sign of a deterministic growth impact; the sign switch results from an endogenous pessimism weighting. All of our numeric scenarios use a DICE based assessment model and find a higher optimal carbon tax than the deterministic DICE base case calibration.

Implications and future direction of greenhouse gas emission mitigation policies in the building sector of China

Abstract A common starting point in assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy implications in the built environment is to look at industry specific policies. This paper addressed the glaring gap between national all-economy policy options that actually determine industry-specific programs, and their downstream impacts and implications to the building and construction sector. National carbon policy schemes were organised into two basic types: indirect pricing mechanisms, and direct pricing mechanisms. Their features and comparative strengths and limitations were critically reviewed under a common framework, drawing from a wide body of literature. The status of the application of the GHG reduction policies in China was reviewed. A green building case is studied to quantitatively present the effectiveness and deficiencies of the current GHG mitigation policies in the building sector of China, and their implications to a building's life cycle. Based on China's current status of the policy system, this paper identifies the future direction of building's GHG mitigation policies of China. Policies directly aiming to GHG mitigation in the building sector should be implemented in holistic and comprehensive pathway, to balance the costs and benefits of the stakeholders for the promotion of building GHG mitigation technologies.

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

Cost effectiveness comparison of certain transportation measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in San Diego County, California

California's overarching mandate to achieve 1990 levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2020 (AB 32, 2005), and the ensuing recent regulations (SB 375, CEQA updates) require local and regional governments to assess GHG mitigation policies, including on-road transportation. The regulations do not make cost-effectiveness a primary criteria for choosing measures but cost remains important to a variety of stakeholders.This communication summarizes results from GHG and cost analysis for seven actual San Diego County road transportation policies: telecommute, vanpools, a bicycle strategy, an increase in mass transit use, parking policies (parking pricing, preferred parking for electric vehicles), an increased local fuel tax and speed harmonization (signal re-timing, roundabouts). Net costs are calculated as the sum of direct costs and benefits to the administering agency, the employer and the individual. Net costs per metric ton GHG abated vary greatly across measures, from negative to high positive (more than US $1000). We find that local GHG cost cannot be sensibly compared to other carbon or GHG policy costs outside the local context for a variety of reasons, but especially because measures have not been adopted primarily for carbon or GHG abatement potential or on the basis of cost effectiveness.

Evaluating Carbon Capture and Storage in a Climate Model with Directed Technical Change

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered a critical technology needed to curb CO2 emissions and is envisioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as an integral part of least-cost greenhouse gas mitigation policy. In this paper, we assess the extent to which CCS and R&D in CCS technology are indeed part of a socially efficient solution to the problem of climate change. For this purpose, we extend the intertemporal model of climate and directed technical change developed by Acemoglu et al. (2012, American Economic Review, 102(1): 131{66) to include a sector responsible for CCS. Surprisingly, even for an optimistic cost estimate available for CCS ($60/ton of CO2 avoided), we find that it is not optimal to deploy CCS or devote resources to R&D in CCS technology either in the near or distant future. Indeed, it is only when the marginal cost of CCS is less than $12/ton that a scenario with an active CCS sector (including R&D) becomes optimal, though not in the near future.

Economical analysis of an alternative strategy for CO2 mitigation based on nuclear power

Many countries are pursuing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies resulting in the increase of use of renewable sources in the electricity sector to mitigate CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy is a non-emitting CO2 source that could be used as part of that policy. However, its main drawback is the high investment required for its deployment. On the other hand, wind power is the clean source preferred option to mitigate CO2 emissions. However, due to its intermittence backup power is needed, in most of the cases it must be provided with combined cycle thermal plants using natural gas. This study performs an economical comparison of a hypothetical implementation of a nuclear strategy to meet the same CO2 emissions reduction goal that has been obtained by the actual Spaniard strategy (2005–2010) based on wind power. The investment required in both strategies is assessed under different investment scenarios and electricity production conditions for nuclear power. Also, the cost of electricity generation is compared for both strategies.

Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption.

CCS, Nuclear Power and Biomass An Assessment of Option Triangle under Global Warming Mitigation Policy by an Integrated Assessment Model MARIA-23

It is well understood that the global climate change caused by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission would be a serious barrier towards the sustainable development. Nuclear power, CCS and biomass have been regarded as the major options in the GHG mitigation policy. However, since the social acceptance of nuclear power expansion has seriously been changed after the gigantic earthquake on March 11, 2011 followed by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the energy policy makers are forced to consider both the global warming and the decline of nuclear power simultaneously. This study attempts to address the following key questions: (1) how much additional costs or decline of production will be needed when nuclear power expansion is limited under the GHG emission control policies and (2) to what extent the potential of the biomass and CCS could compensate for the nuclear power reductions. We expand an integrated assessment model, MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation) to deal with the CCS options and biomass options taking into account the additional carbon emission by cultivation. The simulation results show the interrelationships of the carbon mitigation contributions of the above three major options under various scenarios.

An Interval Probability-based Inexact Two-stage Stochastic Model for Regional Electricity Supply and GHG Mitigation Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval probability-based inexact two-stage stochastic (IP-ITSP) model is developed for environmental pollutants control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management in regional energy system under uncertainties. In the IP-ITSP model, methods of interval probability, interval-parameter programming (IPP) and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework; the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and interval probability distributions. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG -emission mitigation in a regional electricity system, demonstrating that IP-ITSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. 4 scenarios corresponding to different GHG -emission mitigation levels are examined; the results indicates that the model could help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the agricultural sector

Market-based policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generally considered more appropriate than command and control tools. However, the omission of transaction costs from policy evaluations and decision-making processes may result in inefficiency in public resource allocation and sub-optimal policy choices and outcomes. This paper aims to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of market-based GHG mitigation policy instruments in the agricultural sector by incorporating transaction costs. Assuming that farmers' responses to mitigation policies are economically rationale, an individual-based model is developed to study the relative performances of an emission tax, a nitrogen fertilizer tax, and a carbon trading scheme using farm data from the Scottish farm account survey (FAS) and emissions and transaction cost data from literature metadata survey. Model simulations show that none of the three schemes could be considered the most cost effective in all circumstances. The cost effectiveness depends both on the tax rate and the amount of free permits allocated to farmers. However, the emissions trading scheme appears to outperform both other policies in realistic scenarios.

Industry Influence in Stakeholder‐Driven State Climate Change Planning Efforts

Drawing from the literature on public participation and stakeholder collaboratives, this article investigates the influence of power and wealth, as well as political and economic context on the output of stakeholders advisory committees convened to formulate state greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies. Using small sample regression techniques, we analyze the outputs of stakeholder groups in 18 states that have completed Climate Action Plans to reduce GHGs. We find that an increase of 1 percent in the number of energy industry representatives that participate in Climate Action Councils significantly predicts a 4 percent reduction of GHG mitigation targets for the energy sector. More surprisingly, the results also show that where the utilities represent a larger share of the state economy, the Climate Action Plans identify more aggressive GHG reduction goals for the energy sector. We also find that the political orientation of the executive of the state is not correlated with GHG mitigation requirements for the energy sector, suggesting that GHG mitigation is less partisan at the state level than in Washington, DC. We find no evidence that state wealth is associated with GHG mitigation requirements. Finally, we suggest additional research needed to clarify the role of stakeholder participation processes in the evolving arena of climate change policy.

온실가스 감축정책에 따른 발전사업자의 대응 방안에 관한 연구

This paper presents an adaptive strategy of GENCOs for reducing the greenhouse gas by fuel mix change. Fuel mix stands for generation capacity portfolio composed of different fuel resources. Currently, the generation sector of power industry in Korea is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, therefore it is required to change the fuel mix gradually into more eco-friendly way based on renewable energies. The generation costs of renewable energies are still expensive compared to fossil fueled resources. This is why the adaptive change is more preferred at current stage and this paper proposes an optimal strategy for capacity planning based on multiple environmental scenarios on the time horizon. This study used the computer program tool named GATE-PRO (Generation And Transmission Expansion PROgram), which is a mixed-integer non-linear program developed by Hongik university and Korea Energy Economics Institute. The simulations have been carried out with the priority allocation method in the program to determine the optimal mix of NRE(New Renewable Energy). Through this process, the result proposes an economic fuel mix under emission constraints compatible with the greenhouse gas mitigation policy of the United Nations.

The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

A systems approach to reducing institutional GHG emissions

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish necessity and methods for considering greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies at a system‐level. The research emphasizes connecting narrowly focused GHG mitigation objectives (e.g. reduce single occupancy vehicle travel) with broader institutional objectives (e.g. growth in student population) to demonstrate how policies operating at different scales individually and collectively influence GHG reductions.Design/methodology/approach – First, a framework for defining divergent policy types and associated GHG impacts is developed. Second, relying on data from a higher education institution, a quantitative model for testing policy impacts is formulated. Last, through adjustment of the model's policy levers, GHG emission trajectories by policy type are compared.Findings – The central finding is that broad level policies associated with housing stock and student growth are more capable of influencing GHG emissions than traditionally classified mitigation poli...

Política energética de la Unión Europea para un desarrollo sostenible. Propuesta de distribución no lineal de los objetivos energéticos 20-20-20 de la UE

There is worldwide concern for the high consumption of energy from fossil fuels, the limited fossil fuel resources, the climate change and global warming and their possible long-term consequences and the population growth. Even more when energy is the main intermediate good necessary for economic growth and development in any country. This usually translates into better quality of life, and thereby, higher primary energy consumption in all sectors, transport, industry, services, household, etc. In this context, the European Union (EU) seeks to reach a balance between sustainable development, competitiveness and secure supply. The current EU energy policy is based on three interrelated pillars or basic goals: the promotion of energy efficiency, the application of greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the increase of share of energy from renewable energy sources. In this paper, a methodology for nonlinear distribution of dynamic targets is proposed and applied to EU energy policy goals.

Integrated Assessment of Swiss GHG Mitigation Policies After 2012

The residential sector presents a great potential for greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation. We perform an integrated assessment of different mitigation policies for Switzerland focusing on the residential sector. We analyze the case of pure incentive taxes and technical regulations. For our analysis, we have coupled a general equilibrium model with a Swiss residential energy model. We find that a progressive GHG tax of more than 200 USD2000/tCO2 eq is necessary to reach a target of 50% reduction of GHG emissions in 2050. Finally, we also find that efficiency-based technical regulations provide limited additional abatement incentives.

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m2). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.