Greater Toronto And Hamilton Area Research Articles

Societal Co-benefits of Zero-Emission Vehicles in the Freight Industry.

This study was set in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), where commercial vehicle movements were assigned across the road network. Implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and health were examined through an environmental justice lens. Electrification of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks was assessed to identify scenarios associated with the highest benefits for the most disadvantaged communities. Using spatially and temporally resolved commercial vehicle movements and a chemical transport model, changes in air pollutant concentrations under electric truck scenarios were estimated at 1-km2 resolution. Heavy-duty truck electrification reduces ambient black carbon and nitrogen dioxide on average by 10 and 14%, respectively, and GHG emissions by 10.5%. It achieves the highest reduction in premature mortality attributable to fine particulate matter chronic exposure (around 200 cases per year) compared with light- and medium-duty electrification (less than 150 cases each). The burden of all traffic in the GTHA was estimated to be around 600 cases per year. The benefits of electrification accrue primarily in neighborhoods with a high social disadvantage, measured by the Ontario Marginalization Indices, narrowing the disparity of exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Benefits related to heavy-duty truck electrification reflect the adverse impacts of diesel-fueled freight and highlight the co-benefits achieved by electrifying this sector.

CO2 fluxes of vegetation in the Greenbelt of Ontario and increased net ecosystem emissions associated with its removal

The fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to and from vegetation can be significant on a regional scale. It is therefore important to understand the biogenic fluxes of CO2 in order to quantify local carbon budgets. The Greenbelt of Ontario is a protected region of cropland and natural vegetation surrounding the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Ontario, Canada. Recently, changes were proposed to the Greenbelt, including the removal of 2,995 ha (7,400 acres) of protected land to be replaced with housing. In this study, we estimate the biogenic CO2 fluxes of the entire Greenbelt as well as the areas that were proposed for removal by using a modified version of the Solar-induced fluorescence for Modeling Urban biogenic Fluxes vegetation model. We find that, on average, the entire Greenbelt has a net sequestration of 9.9 ± 6.4 TgCO2 each year, where the uncertainty represents half of the interannual variability plus error from the individual years, for the years 2018–2020. The net amount of CO2 absorbed by the Greenbelt is roughly equivalent to a fifth of the annual human-made emissions reported for the entire GTHA. The areas proposed for removal are found to have a net sequestration of 0.0061–0.031 TgCO2 annually. During construction, these lands will remain barren, and the soil will continue to emit CO2, thus changing the area from a net sink to a net source of CO2. For a 3- to 5-year construction period, this soil efflux would result in net ecosystem emissions of 0.314 ± 0.078 TgCO2, in addition to the net sequestration lost by removing the original vegetation (−0.077 ± 0.035 TgCO2). This results in a net difference in biogenic CO2 fluxes of 0.390 ± 0.083 TgCO2, which is equivalent to the average CO2 emissions of roughly 85,000 gasoline passenger vehicles over the course of a year. In addition to biogenic fluxes, there will be CO2 emissions associated with the construction of the proposed single-family housing developments as well as larger per capita emissions associated with low-density housing compared to creating higher density housing using less land.

Modelling future wetland loss with land use landcover change simulation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: The importance of continued greenbelt development restrictions

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) is both the largest urban region in Canada and an area that contains most of the Greenbelt, a protected, ecologically significant area. This study uses land use landcover (LULC) change simulation and wetland data to model how increasing urban and suburban expansion may influence wetland loss and fragmentation in the GTHA if Greenbelt restrictions are not upheld. The results of the model simulation show that; (1) built-up area expansion shifts from the perimeters of major cities to the perimeters of smaller urban communities in the coming decades; (2) built-up areas are the LULC classification associated with substantially more wetland loss than the other LULC classifications included in this study (agriculture, forest, or open range land); (3) rural areas in the northern GTHA experience more wetland raster cell transition and urban areas experience fragmentation, but less overall raster cell transition; (4) there is more wetland area in Greenbelt areas compared to non-Greenbelt areas and without the continued enforcement of development restrictions, the percentage of wetland raster cell transition in Greenbelt areas would be equal to non-Greenbelt areas. This study illustrates the ecological significance of the policy frameworks that uphold the Greenbelt development restrictions and highlights how untethered urban and suburban expansion could impact wetlands throughout this environmentally sensitive region.

Personal Mobility Choices and Disparities in Carbon Emissions.

The promotion of sustainable mobility choices is a crucial element of transport decarbonization. It requires a fundamental understanding of the choices available to urban dwellers and of the equity and justice implications of green mobility solutions. In this study, we quantified personal mobility-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) and their associations with various land use, built environment, and socioeconomic factors. Our study captured personal, household, and neighborhood-level characteristics that are related to high emissions and disparities in emissions across the study region. We observed that the top 30% of emitters generated 70% of all transportation GHG emissions. Household income, family size, and vehicle ownership were associated with increased mobility emissions, while increased population density was associated with lower emissions. The percentage of visible minorities in a neighborhood was associated with lower emissions, but this effect was small. We further contrasted the spatial distribution of traffic-related air pollution with mobility GHG emissions. The results suggest that individuals who emit less GHG live in areas with higher air pollution. A computer vision-based model was used to predict GHG emissions from aerial images of neighborhoods, demonstrating that areas with high land use mixture were linked to a lower generation of mobility-based GHG emissions.

Modelling transit and automobile trip-generation propensities of post-secondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area: a cross-sectional study

The post-secondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) maintain a constant source of demand and ridership for the region’s transit infrastructure. With the province investing billions of dollars to meet the transit needs of the residents of the GTHA, a comprehensive analysis establishing the correlation between transit and automobile trips and the factors that influence the trip generation for these modes and this subpopulation is warranted. Using data from 2015 and 2019, a cross-sectional study to gain behavioural insights into travel by post-secondary students is performed. Using a bivariate ordered probit approach, the effect of land-use attributes and socio-demographics on the propensities of making transit and automobile trips is determined, followed by a marginal effects analysis. The results indicate that the propensity of making transit and automobile trips decreases if the commute distance to campus is below 5 km, and improvement in areas with low transit accessibility can considerably increase the transit trip-making propensity.

Rational inattention in discrete choice models: Estimable specifications of RI-multinomial logit (RI-MNL) and RI-nested logit (RI-NL) models

As opposed to the fully informed choice-making assumption in classical discrete choice models, the theory of Rational Inattention (RI)11RI is used interchangeably for ‘Rational Inattention’ or ‘Rationally Inattentive’ throughout the paper in discrete choice modelling has been recently proposed in the literature. Matějka and McKay (2015) proposed the RI-multinomial logit (RI-MNL), and Fosgerau et al. (2020) proposed the RI-nested logit (RI-NL) model. These models consider that choice makers are bayesian agents with prior probabilities of choices and process any further information assuming an information processing cost to have the updated/posterior choice probabilities. However, the proposed RI-MNL and RI-NL models are theoretical formulations without any estimable empirical specifications. This paper proposes econometric formulations of RI-MNL and RI-NL models that are estimable using classical maximum likelihood estimation methods and suitable for revealed crossectional choice data. The proposed models are estimated for commuting mode choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) using data from a household travel survey conducted in the region. Empirical investigation reveals that the induction of RI in the classical discrete choice models (MNL and NL) improves the model fit by large margins. While scale parameterization in classical MNL and NL does not make a better model, the scale parameterization better captures the choice heterogeneity within the RI framework. Between the RI-MNL and RI-NL, the RI-NL is proven to be the best. The RI-NL model can capture asymmetric (between increasing and decreasing values) elasticities of choice attributes.

Perceptions of COVID-19 risk, vaccine access and confidence: a qualitative description of South Asians in Canada

ObjectivesIn the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), South Asians living in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) and Greater Vancouver area (GVA) experienced specific barriers to...

Rising Up: Collectivizing, Strategizing, and Forging Solidarities among Parents and Caregivers Leading for Racial Justice

This study Expressions in Urban Educationlores the Expressions in Urban Educationeriences of 11 Black parents, one Latinx parent and one Brown (South Asian) parent in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Ontario, Canada, who have challenged racial injustices and inequities in schools, districts, and the province. Drawing on counter-storytelling as a methodology of Critical Race Theory, we reframe the activism of Black and racialized parents as the ultimate form of parent engagement and an important example of educational leadership. These strategies include: the energy of collectivizing, powering up, and building cross-racial and cross-community solidarity. We share implications for educational leaders in rethinking parent engagement and anti-racist, educational leadership.

Regional transport accessibility and residential property values: The case study of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area

There has been a growing interest in land value capture as a means of funding investments in transport infrastructure (TI), as reported in a vast literature analyzing the relationship between property values and accessibility provided by TI in general and transit specifically. There has, however, been limited research on the role of network-level regional transport accessibility and the intra-regional spatial heterogeneity of the price effects. Furthermore, studies usually focus on one transport mode, disregarding the multi-modal competition, and are mostly (pooled) cross-sectional analyses which do not reflect the dynamic nature of developments in TI and housing markets. To address these gaps, this paper empirically investigates the roles of local and regional transport accessibility by car and transit on the evolution of sales prices of single-family homes from 2001 to 2016, across different geographical contexts while controlling for various determinants in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). The spatial panel models’ results confirm that regional transport accessibility does indeed play a significant role in property values over and above the local proximity to TI, with variations between transit and car and over the spectrum of low–high density areas, which needs to be accounted for in land value capture policies.

Predicting housing construction period based on a cox proportional hazard model––an empirical study of housing completions in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area

The completion progress of residential development projects and the length of construction are frequently discussed in the construction industry, but rarely studied by urban modellers. Nonetheless, a realistic reflection of housing supply processes is important for urban microsimulation and land use modelling. To predict the dwelling units generated over space and time, this paper decomposes the housing supply process into two major components: housing starts and completions, the nature and modelling logic of which are quite different. This paper deals with the latter segment, aiming to answer the question of: how long will it take to complete construction of new dwellings? A Cox Proportional Hazard (CPH) Model is employed to examine the “survival” rate of residential building projects and the probabilistic distribution of construction periods. Narrowing down the scope of research, this study investigates housing completions at the individual project level, and discusses the impact of structure type, surrounding land use, and accessibility on the housing completion rate. The Cities of Toronto, Hamilton, and Brampton in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) were selected to conduct the empirical study, with each representing different types of urban form to test model compatibility. The hazard models show good performance in replicating completion rates, and the impact of each factor on hazard ratio indicates that, single detached dwelling units with relatively homogeneous land use have the shortest completion time. This study could provide one component of a comprehensive framework for modelling housing supply, especially in urban microsimulation systems.

South Asian Youth as Vaccine Agents of Change (SAY-VAC): evaluation of a public health programme to mobilise and empower South Asian youth to foster COVID-19 vaccine-related evidence-based dialogue in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Canada

ObjectivesThere have been substantial amounts of misinformation surrounding the importance, safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. The impacts of this misinformation may be augmented as they circulate among ethnic...

“They're causing more harm than good”: a qualitative study exploring racism in harm reduction through the experiences of racialized people who use drugs

BackgroundIncreased opioid-related morbidity and mortality in racialized communities has highlighted the intersectional nature of the drug policy crisis. Given the racist evolution of the war on drugs and the harm reduction (HR) movement, the aim of this study is to explore racism within harm reduction services through the perspectives of our participants.MethodsWe conducted a qualitative descriptive study to explore the perspectives of racialized service users and providers on racism in the HR movement in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). Four racialized service users and four racialized service providers participated in semi-structured interviews that were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analysed thematically.ResultsFive themes related to racism in HR were generated: (1) whiteness of harm reduction as a barrier to accessing services, (2) diversifying HR workers as a step towards overcoming distrust, (3) drop-in spaces specific to Black, Indigenous, and people of colour are facilitators to accessing harm reduction, (4) lack of representation in HR-related promotional and educational campaigns, and (5) HR as a frontier for policing.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that structural and institutional racism are prevalent in HR services within the GTHA, in the form of colour-blind policies and practices that fail to address the intersectional nature of the drug policy crisis. There is a need for local HR organizations to critically reflect and act on their practices and policies, working with communities to become more equitable, inclusive, and accessible spaces for all people who use drugs.

Review of Eat local, taste global: how ethnocultural food reaches our tables

Eat Local, Taste Global: How Ethnocultural Food Reaches our Tables, by Glen C. Filson and Bamidele Adekunle, addresses the demand, availability, and production of ethnocultural vegetables in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). The book is centered around the three largest ethnic groups in the GTHA (Chinese, South Asian, Afro-Caribbean) and considers histories of immigration, acculturation, and the availability of ethnocultural food. Taken as a whole, this book provides an overview and justification for the local production of ethnocultural vegetables. While this book is primarily based in the Southern Ontario context, there is some discussion of ethnocultural vegetable value chains in other parts of Canada and the USA. Further, Filson and Adekunle distinguish between the corporate food regime, characterized by longer value chains, and local and community level food sovereignty which are primarily discussed through farmers’ markets, community shared agriculture, and gardening. The authors cite numerous benefits of producing ethnocultural vegetables in Southern Ontario, including economic, health, social, and environmental benefits. Ethnocultural vegetables are not only fresher and more nutritious when produced locally, but there is also increased opportunity for producer-consumer contact and less food miles associated with local production.

Establishment location choice model considering intra-firm interactions

This paper describes the development of a business establishment location choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Canada. The location of establishments is the origin or destination of freight trips and passenger trips (e.g., shopping trips, employment location etc.). The conventional treatment of establishments is that they act as independent decision-making agents when determining where to locate. However, it is known that many establishments are members of larger firms making strategic location decisions among multiple regions and locations within said regions. The location choice decision is often made to reduce logistics costs, travel time, and maximizing market coverage. Hence, depending on the type of the firm, there could be a significant proportion of intra-firm freight trips, which should be distinguished from inter-firm freight trips. In this study, we focus on location choice of establishments through the lens of firm membership. Firm membership is identified for establishments in the retail and wholesale trade sectors and used to calculate intra-establishment distances. The model is expanded to include intra-firm panel effects to account for correlations in the decision-making of establishments. It is found that establishments in the wholesale industry tend to locate in lower population density areas partially due to their larger land footprints while retail establishments that sell everyday goods such as grocery stores tend to locate in high population density areas. A key finding is the distinction between intra-firm and inter-firm distance preferences. It is demonstrated that establishments from the same firm tend to strategically locate farther from one another, while still choosing to co-locate with other establishments from the same industry. This result highlights a gap in existing methods of analysis, an inability of these models to distinguish between spatial considerations on establishment location choice. We propose the development of choice models capable of representing such dynamics.

Modeling the Impacts of Off-Peak Delivery in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Off-peak-hour delivery (OPHD) has the potential to reduce congestion in busy urban areas and at the same time improve the efficiency of logistics providers, shippers, and receivers. There has been growing interest in OPHD in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), an important freight hub in Canada. The Government of Ontario is considering permanently relaxing noise by-laws to promote OPHD throughout the province. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative assessments of the impacts of region-wide adoption of OPHD for the GTHA. A recently developed commercial vehicle (CV) model for the GTHA is presented in the paper. Various OPHD scenarios have been tested with the CV model. The impacts of induced passenger demand have also been demonstrated. Modeling outcomes indicate that OPHD could result in 5,530 vehicle-hours saved in a day after induced demand is accounted for. Light truck carriers would benefit the most by shifting to off-peak hours and prioritizing Toronto and Peel Region customers would yield the highest travel time savings during the off-peak hours.

Shared mobility adoption from 2016 to 2018 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: Demographic or geographic diffusion?

Shared mobility services, such as on-demand ride-hailing, car sharing, and bike sharing, have significantly expanded the mobility tools available to urban residents. Understanding how these technologies are adopted over time is critical towards developing appropriate transportation policy measures. Most fundamentally: is adoption over time driven by demographic or geographic diffusion or a combination of the two? This study uses 2016 and 2018 survey data to explore the demographic and spatial predictors of changes in the adoption of on-demand ride-hailing, car sharing, and bike sharing in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Ontario, Canada.This study uses both descriptive statistics and inferential models to identify changes in the adoption process between 2016 and 2018. Trivariate ordered models estimated using diagonally weighted least squares (DWLS) suggest that spatial diffusion plays a role (accounting for 9–44% of changes in adoption between 2016 and 2018), that joint demographic-spatial patterns explain some variation in adoption over time (4–11%), but that demographic controls explain most changes in adoption over time (approximately 39–49%). Notably, adoption is concentrated (albeit somewhat less so over time) among younger cohorts, and it increases among women, among larger households, and among households without children. It is unclear how these changes in adoption will be impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and future studies should explore the non-linear and complex nature of technology adoption, including the relative roles of service supply and demand changes.

Shifting Gears for the Automated Vehicle: Findings from Focus Groups in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

ABSTRACT Travel behavior responses to automated vehicles (AVs) could undermine broader transportation policy objectives. This study presents focus group findings on Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) residents’ interest and expected behavioral responses to AVs. Five key consumer response themes are identified: safety and ethics concerns; lack of trust; diverse AV use intentions; agreement on a role for public sector involvement; and disagreement over regulation strategies. Findings indicate that utilitarian behavioral models resonate but that psychosocial explanations, such as “control,” “trust,” and “compatibility” play a stronger role—underscoring the importance for policymakers considering the social processes of new technology adoption.

Commute satisfaction and its relationship to post-secondary students’ campus participation and success

This paper examines the association between university and college students’ commute satisfaction, and their perception of commute being a barrier to campus participation and academic success. The correlates of commute satisfaction were also explored using data collected at ten post-secondary institutions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), Canada. The majority (61%) of students reported their commute was a barrier to their campus participation and 30% perceived their commute as a barrier to academic success. Binomial logistic regressions revealed positive association between commute satisfaction and perceived barrier to campus attendance, participation in on-campus extra-and co-curricular activities, course selection and academic success. Commute mode, commute duration, travel attitudes, and campus type were statistically associated with levels of commute satisfaction. Mode-specific effects varied by commute time. Post-secondary administrators and transportation planners can potentially improve student well-being by implementing policies that enable active transportation and affordable housing, and improve public transit services.

Can transit investments in low-income neighbourhoods increase transit use? Exploring the nexus of income, car-ownership, and transit accessibility in Toronto

Transportation equity advocates recommend improving public transit in low-income neighbourhoods to alleviate socio-spatial inequalities and increase quality of life. However, transportation planners often overlook transit investments in neighbourhoods with "transit-captive" populations because they are assumed to result in less mode-shifting, congestion relief, and environmental benefits, compared to investments that aim to attract choice riders in wealthier communities. In North American cities, while many low-income households are already transit users, some also own and use private vehicles. It suggests that transit improvements in low-income communities could indeed result in more transit use and less car use. Accordingly, the main objective of this article is to explore the statistical relationship between transit use and transit accessibility as well as how this varies by household income and vehicle ownership in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). Using stratified regression models, we find that low-income households with one or more cars per adult have the most elastic relationship between transit accessibility and transit use; they are more likely to be transit riders if transit improves. However, we confirm that in auto-centric areas with poor transit, the transit use of low-income households drops off sharply as car ownership increases. On the other hand, a sensitivity analysis suggests more opportunities for increasing transit ridership among car-deficit households when transit is improved. These findings indicate that improving transit in low-income inner suburbs, where most low-income car-owning households are living, would align social with environmental planning goals.

Ethnoburb as a spatiotemporal process: its implications for immigrant settlements

The paper complements the visual observation and ethnographic emphasis of much of the literature on ethnoburbs by offering a spatial analysis of suburban immigrant settlements. The research focuses on the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), Canada’s most populous urban region. The region is especially well suited to an investigation of the suburban distribution of immigrants because of its exceptionally large and diversified influx of immigrants. The study concentrates on the two largest recent GTHA immigrant groups, Chinese and South Asians, and assesses their spatial evolution between 2006 and 2016. It demonstrates that immigrant suburban spatial patterning can take different spatial forms according to the ethnic groups under consideration—clustering in the case of the Chinese and a blending of clustering and dispersion for the South Asians. It also shows that ethnoburbs come in different guises reflecting the size and composition of different ethnic groups. Another finding concerns the evolution of ethnoburbs. The paper identifies different ethnoburb growth trajectories, but also acknowledges the possibility of a reduced presence of ethnoburbs in the future. Finally, by drawing findings from prior research on ethnoburbs, it elaborates on the gravity effect exerted by large clusters of ethnic retailing, services, and institutions on the different settlements of a given ethnic group.