Modelling transit and automobile trip-generation propensities of post-secondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area: a cross-sectional study

Abstract

The post-secondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) maintain a constant source of demand and ridership for the region’s transit infrastructure. With the province investing billions of dollars to meet the transit needs of the residents of the GTHA, a comprehensive analysis establishing the correlation between transit and automobile trips and the factors that influence the trip generation for these modes and this subpopulation is warranted. Using data from 2015 and 2019, a cross-sectional study to gain behavioural insights into travel by post-secondary students is performed. Using a bivariate ordered probit approach, the effect of land-use attributes and socio-demographics on the propensities of making transit and automobile trips is determined, followed by a marginal effects analysis. The results indicate that the propensity of making transit and automobile trips decreases if the commute distance to campus is below 5 km, and improvement in areas with low transit accessibility can considerably increase the transit trip-making propensity.