GRACE Follow-On Research Articles

Study on the vertical deformations induced by terrestrial water storage changes in Huang-Huai-Hai river basin

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations are associated with water mass movements, which may cause the deformation displacements of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations. This study investigates the spatio-temporal TWS variations and addresses the relationship between deformation variations observed in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin (HHHRB) and local hydrological features. Results indicate that the vertical velocities at the GNSS stations induced by TWS changes are relatively small, and the impacts of the terrestrial water storage changes are mainly reflected in the changes of seasonal characteristics. Although there is a downward TWS trend from 2011 to 2022 in most HHHRB areas, velocities from the vertical displacements of both Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GFO) and the GNSS reflect that the HHHRB is undergoing an uplift process, while the magnitude of the GRACE/GFO derived velocities is much smaller than that of the GNSS solutions. Common hydrological deformations estimated from GRACE/GFO and GNSS measurements reveal that the TWS-derived displacements can explain 54.5% of the GNSS seasonal variations, with the phases of terrestrial water storage advancing by about one month relative to GNSS common signal phases. Moreover, the decrease of the groundwater storage in the HHHRB has been accelerating since 2008. After reaching its lowest level around mid-2020, it began to rise rapidly, which might be closely related to the implementation of the South-North Water Transfer Central Project.

Improved GRACE-FO kinematic orbit determination with epoch-difference KBR during the GPS flex power period

The flex power technology in satellite navigation systems enhances anti-jamming capabilities but can impact the quality of GPS observations and the accuracy of low Earth orbit determination, such as GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission. This study investigates the influence of GPS flex power on Hatch-Melbourne-Wübbena (HMW) linear combinations and GRACE-FO kinematic orbits from January 1 to September 30, 2020. Epoch-differenced K-Band Ranging (KBR) data is introduced in orbit determination during the flex power period to improve both absolute and inter-satellite relative accuracy. The analysis indicates that the influence of early flex power (before February 13, 2020) on HMW combinations and orbits is minimal, whereas the effect of later flex power (after February 14, 2020) is significant: (1) HMW combinations exhibit notable systematic discontinuities even with elevation angles greater than 50 degrees, causing the fixing rate of wide-lane ambiguities to drop from 96 % to 80 %. (2) Kinematic absolute orbits show significant deteriorations of approximately 9 mm and 4 mm in the three-dimensional direction for float and integer ambiguity resolution (FAR and IAR), while relative accuracy of FAR and IAR orbits decreases by 50 % and 46 %, respectively. However, using epoch-differenced KBR (DKBR) data, the accuracy of absolute orbits could be increased by up to 15 % and the accuracy of relative orbits could be improved by at least 69 %, which showcases a positive effect. Thus, this can be considered as an alternative method to improve the accuracy of GRACE-FO orbit during the flex power period.

Monsoon-Based Linear Regression Analysis for Filling Data Gaps in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellite Observations

Over the past two decades, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and its successor, GRACE-follow on (GRACE-FO), have played a vital role in climate research. However, the absence of certain observations during and between these missions has presented a persistent challenge. Despite numerous studies attempting to address this issue with mathematical and statistical methods, no definitive optimal approach has been established. This study introduces a practical solution using Linear Regression Analysis (LRA) to overcome data gaps in both GRACE data types—mascon and spherical harmonic coefficients (SHCs). The proposed methodology is tailored to monsoon patterns and demonstrates efficacy in filling data gaps. To validate the approach, a global analysis was conducted across eight basins, monitoring changes in total water storage (TWS) using the technique. The results were compared with various geodetic products, including data from the Swarm mission, Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation (IGG), Quantum Frontiers (QF), and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) coefficients. Artificial data gaps were introduced within GRACE observations for further validation. This research highlights the effectiveness of the monsoon method in comparison to other gap-filling approaches, showing a strong similarity between gap-filling results and GRACE’s SHCs, with an absolute relative error approaching zero. In the mascon approach, the coefficient of determination (R2) exceeded 91% for all months. This study offers a readily usable gap-filling product—SHCs and smoothed gridded observations—with accurate error estimates. These resources are now accessible for a wide range of applications, providing a valuable tool for the scientific community.

Weather‐Induced Satellite Orbit Perturbations

AbstractSatellites in Earth's orbit are exposed to Earth radiation, consisting of reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation, thereby exerting a non‐conservative force that causes acceleration and affects the orbits. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) mission aiming to retrieve the Earth's gravity potential is critically dependent on accounting for this force and all other non‐gravitational forces. There are both diurnal and seasonal variations in the Earth's radiation pressure, of which the seasonal variability can be represented by climatology. Nevertheless, the daily variations in the Earth's radiation pressure, due to the transient changes in the weather; for example, clouds and their properties, are not accounted for in the orbit perturbations studies. We show here that the top‐of‐atmosphere radiation fluxes computed with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model explain most of the measured short‐term variations in the radial acceleration of the GRACE‐FO satellite. Our physics‐based modeling corrects a hitherto unexplained lack of power spectral density in the measured accelerations. For example, we can accurately model the accelerations associated with a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean in December 2020, which would not be possible when using climatological data. Our results demonstrate that using a global numerical weather prediction model significantly improves the simulation of non‐gravitational effects in the satellites' orbits. In the 7‐day data set, OpenIFS‐simulated acceleration exhibited higher accuracy than climatological‐data‐simulated acceleration (2.5 compared to 2.6 nms−2) and an improved precision (2.6 compared to 3.0 nms−2). This advancement contributes to a more precise orbit determination across various applications in Earth sciences.

Spatiotemporal Evolution Features of the 2022 Compound Hot and Drought Event over the Yangtze River Basin

A rare compound hot and drought (CHD) event occurred in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in the summer of 2022, which brought serious social crisis and ecological disaster. The analysis of the causes, spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts of this event is of great significance and value for future drought warning and mitigation. We used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data, meteorological data, hydrological data and satellite remote sensing data to discuss the spatiotemporal evolution, formation mechanism and the influence of the CHD event. The results show that the drought severity caused by the CHD event was the most severe during 2003 and 2022. The CHD event lasted a total of five months (from July to November), and there were variations in the damage in different sub-basins. The Wu River Basin (WRB) is the region where the CHD event lasted the longest, at six months (from July to December), while it also lasted four or five months in all the other basins. Among them, the WRB, Dongting Lake Rivers Basin (DLRB) and Mainstream of the YRB (MSY) are the three most affected basins, whose hot and drought severity values are 7.750 and −8.520 (WRB), 7.105 and −9.915 (DLRB) and 6.232 and −9.143 (MSY), respectively. High temperature and low precipitation are the direct causes of the CHD event, and the underlying causes behind this event are the triple La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole event. The two extreme climate events made the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) unusually strong, and then the WPSH covered a more northerly and westerly region than in previous years and remained entrenched for a long period of time over the YRB and its adjacent regions. Moreover, this CHD event had a devastating impact on local agricultural production and seriously disrupted daily life and production. Our results have implications for the study of extreme disaster events.

Recovering Differential Forces From the GRACE‐D Accelerometer

AbstractThe reduction of non‐gravitational accelerations through an onboard accelerometer is a vital part of accurately estimating gravity fields for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO). Current accelerometer quality, specifically a defect on the GRACE‐D accelerometer, necessitates the use of extensive calibration techniques to optimally utilize the accelerometer measurements. This paper describes these techniques and correction algorithms as they are used for the official GRACE‐FO accelerometer products, which rest on the information present in the partially functional GRACE‐D accelerometer. First, transplanted data from GRACE‐C is used to remove common effects between the spacecraft. Then, GRACE‐D data is utilized to compute a correction to the transplanted data to account for solar radiation pressure (SRP) and albedo using a parity argument and to account for non‐common drag and thruster leaks in the attitude control system. The SRP and albedo term predominantly improves C3,0 while the drag and leaky thruster term improves the gravity field across the entire spectrum. Finally, some comments on alternative data usage, initial modifications to the algorithms to account for other spacecraft operational modes, and future outlook are provided.

Impacts of temporal resolution of atmospheric de-aliasing products on gravity field estimation

SUMMARY Despite the increasing accuracies of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)/GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On) gravity field models through worldwide endeavours, the temporal aliasing effect caused by the imperfect background models used in gravity field modelling is still a crucial factor that degrades the quality of gravity field solutions. Since the important role of temporal resolution of atmospheric de-aliasing models, this paper specifically investigates the influence of temporal resolution on gravity field modelling from the perspectives of frequency, spectral and spatial domains. To this end, we introduced the gravitational acceleration and geoid height derived from the static gravity field GOCO06s in the inner integral. The introduction of the static gravity field has a comparable impact on LRI (Laser Ranging Interferometers) range-rate residuals as the accuracy of the LRI range-rate data, despite its magnitude of being less than 0.1 mm in the spatial domain. This finding also highlights the significance of error level in existing de-aliasing products as a crucial factor that restricts the current accuracy of gravity field solutions. Further analyses show that increasing the temporal resolution from 3 to 1 hr has an insignificant impact on the gravity solutions in both the frequency and spectral domains, which is also smaller than that caused by using different atmospheric data sets. However, in the spatial domain, LRI range-rate residuals can be effectively mitigated in certain regions of the Southern Hemisphere at mid- and high-latitudes by increasing the temporal resolution. Particularly, the discrepancies of mass change estimates brought about by enhancing temporal resolution have distinct characteristics, especially in the Congo River and the Amazon River Basins. The mass changes in terms of equivalent water height derived by using P4M6 filtering show that the maximum root mean square value of spatial differences caused by improving the temporal resolution of the atmospheric de-aliasing models can reach ∼13.4 mm in the subregion of the Congo River Basin. However, using different atmospheric data sets can lead to a maximum difference of ∼16.5 mm. For the Amazon River Basin, the corresponding maximum discrepancy is ∼18.1 mm, and that caused by improving temporal resolution is ∼9.4 mm. We further divide the Congo River Basin into several subregions using a lat-lon regular grid with a spatial resolution of 3°. The subsequent time-series results of mass changes reveal that the maximum contribution of temporal resolution and changes in the atmospheric data sets can reach 11.09 and 21.24 per cent, respectively. This suggests that it is necessary to consider the temporal resolution of de-aliasing products when studying mass changes at a regional scale.

Residual Patterns in GRACE Follow-On Laser Ranging Interferometry Post-Fit Range Rate Residuals

The novel laser ranging interferometer (LRI) on GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) provides range and range rate measurements for more than 4 years now. Since the launch of the GRACE-FO mission there were few investigations about this measurement system on the level of gravity field recovery and analysis of post-fit residuals. We applied techniques such as along-orbit-analysis or time-argument of latitude diagrams (TAL) to analyse the post-fit range rate residuals as well as the post-fit range acceleration residuals to identify unknown characteristics and systematic effects. The effects are the range rate effect, the panel effect, the Carrier-To-Noise Ratio (CNR) effect and the polar effect. The range rate effect occurs, when the range rate observation ρ̇ of the LRI is around 0 m/s. In the TAL diagram the effect appears as a mesh pattern. The panel effect shows patterns of increased residuals when a specific satellite panel starts or stops being illuminated by the Sun. Increased residuals appear when the laser beam is aligned with the Sun. A CNR drop as well as a fluctuation of the yaw and pitch pointing angles obtained from the LRI steering mirrors is observable. Additionally, when the satellites flying into or out of the Earth shadow this effect coincides with the shadow transition effect. Another effect is the CNR effect which appears as an elliptic shape in the TAL diagram. This pattern occurs when the CNR values drop below the LRI requirements of 70 dB-Hz. All these effects have not been detected in the residuals of the GRACE-FO K-band ranging system (KBR) and therefore further investigation and studies will improve the understanding and applications of LRI technology.

The analysis on groundwater storage variations from GRACE/GRACE-FO in recent 20 years driven by influencing factors and prediction in Shandong Province, China

Monitoring and predicting the regional groundwater storage (GWS) fluctuation is an essential support for effectively managing water resources. Therefore, taking Shandong Province as an example, the data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) is used to invert GWS fluctuation from January 2003 to December 2022 together with Watergap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM), in-situ groundwater volume and level data. The spatio-temporal characteristics are decomposed using Independent Components Analysis (ICA), and the impact factors, such as precipitation and human activities, which are also analyzed. To predict the short-time changes of GWS, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) is adopted together with three commonly used methods Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model (ARMA), as the comparison. The results show that: (1) The loss intensity of western GWS is significantly greater than those in coastal areas. From 2003 to 2006, GWS increased sharply; during 2007 to 2014, there exists a loss rate − 5.80 ± 2.28 mm/a of GWS; the linear trend of GWS change is − 5.39 ± 3.65 mm/a from 2015 to 2022, may be mainly due to the effect of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The correlation coefficient between GRACE and WGHM is 0.67, which is consistent with in-situ groundwater volume and level. (2) The GWS has higher positive correlation with monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) considering time delay after moving average, which has the similar energy spectrum depending on Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) method. In addition, the influencing facotrs on annual GWS fluctuation are analyzed, the correlation coefficient between GWS and in-situ data including the consumption of groundwater mining, farmland irrigation is 0.80, 0.71, respectively. (3) For the GWS prediction, SVM method is adopted to analyze, three training samples with 180, 204 and 228 months are established with the goodness-of-fit all higher than 0.97. The correlation coefficients are 0.56, 0.75, 0.68; RMSE is 5.26, 4.42, 5.65 mm; NSE is 0.28, 0.43, 0.36, respectively. The performance of SVM model is better than the other methods for the short-term prediction.

Drought Dynamics in the Nile River Basin: Meteorological, Agricultural, and Groundwater Drought Propagation

The Nile River Basin (NRB) has experienced a notable rise in drought episodes in recent decades. The propagation of meteorological, agricultural, and groundwater drought dynamics in the NRB was investigated in this study. The following drought indices examined the correlation and propagation among meteorological, agricultural, and groundwater droughts. These are the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), soil moisture index, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE/GRACE-FO)-derived groundwater drought index (GGDI). These droughts were comprehensively evaluated in the NRB from 2003 to 2022. The cross-wavelet transform approach highlighted the links between droughts. The following are the key findings: (1) In the NRB, the cross-wavelet energy spectrum of wavelet coherence can indicate the internal connection between meteorological versus (vs.) agricultural and agricultural versus (vs.) groundwater drought. The time scale with the most significant correlation coefficient is the drought propagation time. (2) The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) correlated with agricultural and groundwater drought much more than the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), demonstrating that ENSO has an important impact on drought advancement. (3) The R2 values were 0.68 for GGDI vs. standardized soil moisture index (SSI), 0.71 for Blue Nile Region (BNR) GGDI vs. SSI, and 0.55 for SSI vs. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Similarly, in the Lake Victoria Region (LVR), GGDI vs. SSI was 0.51 and SSI vs. SPEI was 0.55, but in the Bahr-el-Ghazal Region (BER), GGDI vs. SSI was 0.61 and SSI vs. SPEI was 0.27 during the whole research period with varied lag durations ranging from 1 to 6 months. Thus, the propagation of drought (i.e., meteorological, agricultural, and groundwater drought) dynamics has the potential to reshape our understanding of drought evolution, which could lead to early drought forecasting across the NRB and similar climatic regions.

Alternative Approach to Tilt-to-Length Coupling Estimation for Laser Ranging Interferometers in Future Gravity Missions

Tilt-to-length coupling, a non-constant systematic error source caused by satellite attitude variations, has been observed in the laser ranging signals of the GRACE Follow-On mission. This error can be corrected by certain calibration maneuvers performed regularly in orbit. In this paper, we introduce an alternative approach to tilt-to-length coupling estimation for a laser ranging interferometer in future gravity missions, using the ranging signals without any specific calibration maneuvers, which allows daily estimation. An analytical model of laser ranging signals is derived. The tilt-to-length estimation is performed under different conditions using the least squares method as well as the simulated data. The pointing angle noise is found to be the most significant limiting factor. When the pointing angle noise is below 0.3μrad/Hz1/2, the RMS of the estimation error is below 4 nm, much better than the tilt-to-length error of GRACE Follow-On. In the case of low pointing angle noise, the estimation error of an under 1.5 m offset between the center of mass and the interferometer reference point is not obviously different from the case with only a 0.5 mm offset, which provides installation flexibility for the laser ranging interferometer.

Study on the Impact of Vegetation Restoration on Groundwater Resources in Tianshan Mountain and Yili Valley in Xinjiang, China

China has implemented a series of ecological protection and restoration projects in Tianshan Mountain and Yili Valley in Xinjiang, which have significantly improved regional vegetation coverage. Vegetation improves soil structure through roots, especially increasing non-capillary porosity, which enhances the precipitation infiltration performance, thus reducing surface runoff, increasing the interception and infiltration of groundwater resources, and enhancing regional water retention capacity of soil. In order to quantitatively study the impact of ecological conservation and restoration (represented by fraction of natural vegetation coverage, FVC) on groundwater storage (GWS), we investigated GWS changes in this region, identified the main factors, and quantified their relative impacts. Here, we combined data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) hydrological model from January 2003 to December 2020 and evaluated GWS changes. We used the variable importance in projection and partial least squares regression methods to determine the main influencing factors. We found that (1) before and after 2012, GWS decreased at a rate of 0.80 cm/yr and 0.75 cm/yr (with statistical significance p < 0.01), respectively. (2) Before 2012, the main factors affecting the decrease in GWS were agricultural planting areas, and after 2012, they were temperature, evaporation, and FVC, with relative contributions of 54.72%, 34.59%, and 10.69%, respectively. FVC has a positive regulating effect on the increase in regional GWS.

Providing Enhanced Insights into Groundwater Exchange Patterns through Downscaled GRACE Data

The measurement of groundwater exchange between neighboring regions is a critical topic in water resource management and can usually be achieved through a combination of field investigations and the use of groundwater flow models. In this study, we employed the water balance and Darcy’s law methods, utilizing downscaled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) data to assess groundwater exchange patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China. Additionally, we determined the contributions of human activities and climate factors to the observed variations via residual analysis. The results revealed a consistent decrease in groundwater storage in the study area since 2008, especially in the spring and summer months. The groundwater exchange rates calculated by 1° and 0.05° groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) were basically consistent, and the downscaled GWSAs could better reflect the small-scale groundwater exchange characteristics. The groundwater exchange rate showed a decreasing trend from the Piedmont plain to the coastal areas. A notable trend of declining groundwater exchange between the Taihang Mountains and Piedmont plains was observed, and the downward trend gradually intensified from north to south between 2003 and 2007. After 2008, there was an increasing trend, and coastal areas exhibited the smallest amount of groundwater exchange. Human activities emerged as the predominant factor accounting for more than 90.9% of the overall reduction in groundwater storage, while climate change imposed a minimal influence on groundwater storage variations. The insights obtained in this study hold significant implications for groundwater resource planning and management in the region.

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of −144 ± 27 Gt a−1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka et al., 2023b). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a−1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of −0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.

Investigation of 2020–2022 extreme floods and droughts in Sichuan Province of China based on joint inversion of GNSS and GRACE/GFO data

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surface deformation measurement and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-on (GFO) satellite gravimetry provide complementary strengths in estimating terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes, which helps quantify the evolutions of extreme floods and droughts. We implemented a joint inversion framework that only incorporates the contributions of GNSS and GRACE/GFO to recover the TWS changes for monitoring extreme floods and droughts in the Sichuan Province of China (SCP). The performance of TWS changes from the joint inversion is evaluated through closed-loop simulation and independent hydrometeorological data (i.e., precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff (R)) based on the water balance equation (named P-ET-R) in the spatio-temporal domains. The simulation analysis results show that joint inversion presents better performance in recovering TWS changes than GNSS-only and GRACE/GFO-only solutions in the spatio-temporal scales. The measured joint inversion results reveal more spatial details of TWS changes than GNSS-only and GRACE/GFO-only solutions and present better correlations with GLDAS- and ERA5-derived P-ET-R (0.77 vs. 0.79) than GNSS-only (0.49 vs. 0.54) and GRACE/GFO-only (0.61 vs. 0.68) in the spatial domain. Meanwhile, the joint inversion results effectively characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of extreme floods and droughts in SCP during 2020–2022, the average TWS surpluses are 33.61 and 32.86 mm in 2020 and 2022 flood events and the average TWS deficits are −36.78 and −63.87 mm in 2021 and 2022 drought events. In addition, the drought propagation time generally presents an increasing trend from southwestern to northeastern SCP. Furthermore, the average and minimum recovery time of drought and flood in the Sichuan basin is longer than those in the western mountains during 2020–2022. The proposed approach provides an effective estimation strategy for recovering reliable TWS changes for the investigation of extreme floods and droughts in regions where GNSS stations are distributed.

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003

In recent sea level studies, discrepancies have arisen in ocean mass observations obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its successor, GRACE Follow-On, with GRACE estimates consistently appearing lower than density-corrected ocean volume observations since 2015. These disparities have raised concerns about potential systematic biases in sea-level observations, with significant implications for our understanding of this essential climate variable. Here, we reconstruct the global and regional ocean mass change through models of ice and water mass changes on land and find that it closely aligns with both GRACE and density-corrected ocean volume observations after implementing recent adjustments to the wet troposphere correction and halosteric sea level. While natural variability in terrestrial water storage is important on interannual timescales, we find that the net increase in ocean mass over 20 years can be almost entirely attributed to ice wastage and human management of water resources.

Impact of the combination and replacement of SLR-based low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE solutions

GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (FO) missions provide time-variable gravity field models of unprecedented quality that allow for the hydrological, oceanic, and ice mass change studies on a global scale. However, the very low-degree coefficients derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO are of inferior quality due to thermal effects acting on satellites and malfunctioning of the onboard accelerometers. Therefore, C20 and C30 coefficients describing the Earth’s oblateness and the pear shape of the Earth, respectively, are being replaced by values derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) in the standard GRACE solutions. This study assesses the impact of the replacement of low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by SLR data on the trend and seasonal signals of ice mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica. We found that the replacement of the low-degree gravity field coefficients changes the estimates of trends by 4, 8, and 22 Gt/year in Greenland, West, and East Antarctica, respectively, depending on the source of SLR coefficients and period for which the coefficients are replaced. In SLR and GRACE solutions, all coefficients of the same order and the same parity of degrees are strongly correlated. Therefore, replacing only two selected coefficients may lead to a biased solution. Thus, we propose to combine GRACE with SLR solutions up to a degree and order 10 × 10 to properly consider the sensitivity of each of the techniques to gravity field coefficients, instead of replacing two coefficients from SLR in GRACE solutions. The combined solution reduces the residual trend of post-glacial rebound from 1.2 to 0.9 Gt/year and from − 57.8 to − 57.0 Gt/year in Scandinavia and South Canada, respectively, when compared to GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions with the replacement of coefficients. The SLR-GRACE combination reduces the noise in the GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by 8%, from 38 to 35 Gt, in the Fennoscandia region. In the periods when GRACE is at the end of its mission and observations are disrupted, the weights adjust the contribution from SLR and GRACE based on relative ratio of variances from each techniques. Thus, the combined solutions are more consistent with independent geophysical models of glacial isostatic adjustment, and the combinations are affected by smaller noise than the standard GRACE solutions and properly account for different sensitivities of SLR and GRACE techniques to low-degree time-variable gravity field coefficients.

Downscaled GRACE/GRACE-FO observations for spatial and temporal monitoring of groundwater storage variations at the local scale using machine learning

Groundwater utilization for several purposes such as irrigation in agriculture, industry, and domestic use substantially impacts water storage. Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA) estimates have improved owing to the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) advancements. However, the characterization of GWSA fluctuation hotspots has been hindered by the coarse resolution of GRACE data. To better measure groundwater storage and depletion variations throughout an area and identify GWSA variation hotspots, a fine spatial resolution of GWSA estimations is required. Therefore, due to the coarse resolution of GRACE measurements, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to simulate fine resolution 0.1° GWSA combining climatic variables (soil moisture storage, evapotranspiration, temperature, surface runoff, and rainfall) from improved spatial high resolution FLDAS (Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System) model derived data and geospatial variables (elevation, slope, and aspect) extracted from Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A correlation of 0.98 demonstrated that the XGBoost model successfully simulated groundwater storage at a finer scale over the Upper Indus Plain Aquifer (UIPA). The findings suggested that the UIPA's groundwater storage has been depleted at an annual rate of 0.44 km3/yr which was 7.94 km3 in total between 2003 and 2020. According to the results, there seems to be consistency between the downscaled and original GWSA regarding temporal and spatial variability. The results were verified to show an improved correlation of 0.77 between the downscaled and the in-situ GWSA, compared to 0.75 between the GRACE-derived and the in-situ GWSA.

Long-term ice mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica derived from satellite laser ranging

Time-variable gravity field models obtained from satellite gravimetric techniques allow for the assessment of ice sheet mass changes in remote polar regions, such as Greenland and Antarctica. So far, GRACE has been the primary mission for obtaining the global time-variable gravity field models. However, GRACE was launched in 2002, thus very little is known about the global mass changes before this data, as well as between GRACE and its successor – GRACE Follow-On. We derive a method of gravity field recovery based on Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data to geodetic satellites that allows for obtaining direct ice mass change estimates for a period longer by 10 years than that provided by the GRACE missions. The developed method is based on splitting normal equation systems and re-stacking the solutions which allow for stable inversion, reduces the correlations between obtained parameters, stabilizes the ice mass estimates in polar regions, and reduces the noise over oceans by a factor of four. The secular trends obtained from SLR are equal to −113.5 and −82.8 Gt/year, whereas these are −119.1 and −83.3 Gt/year from GRACE and GRACE-FO to degree and order 10 for Greenland and West Antarctica, respectively, for the common period of 2002–2021 and after removing the post-glacial rebound effect. Despite the conformity of the trend and patterns, an underestimation is observed in the solutions expanded to degree and order 10. Therefore, scaling factors between GRACE/GRACE-FO expanded up to a degree and order 10 × 10 and 60 × 60 were derived and applied to SLR solutions to account for the differences in mass estimates due to the truncation of the models. SLR data revealed that in Greenland the smallest ice mass trends are for 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2015–2020 which are equal to +54.3, −15.5, and −75.9 Gt/year. The largest ice mass depletion periods took place in 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and recently in 2019–2021 with trends of −213.9, −287.2, and −276.1 Gt/year, respectively. For Greenland and West Antarctica, the period 2010–2015 is characterized by the most enormous ice depletion events, whereas the later 5-year period of 2015–2020 provided a near mass-equilibrium for Antarctica reducing the negative trend and returning to the situation from the ‘90s when no significant ice mass changes were observed.

Influence of South-to-North Water Diversion on Land Subsidence in North China Plain Revealed by Using Geodetic Measurements

As a major grain-producing region in China, the North China Plain (NCP) faces serious challenges such as water shortage and land subsidence. In late 2014, the Central Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD-C) began to provide NCP with water resources. However, the effectiveness of this supply in mitigating land subsidence remains a pivotal and yet unassessed aspect. In this paper, we utilized various geodetic datasets, including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and leveling data, to conduct a spatial-temporal analysis of the equivalent water height (EWH) and vertical ground movement in the NCP. The results reveal a noteworthy decline in EWH from 2011 to 2015, followed by a slight increase with minor fluctuations from 2015 to 2020, demonstrating a strong correlation with the water resources supplied by the SNWD-C. The GRACE-derived surface deformation rate induced by hydrological loading is estimated to be <1 mm/yr. In comparison, GNSS-derived vertical ground movements exhibit considerable regional differences during the 2011–2020 period. Substantial surface subsidence is evident in the central and eastern NCP, contrasting with a gradual uplift in the front plain of the Taihang Mountains. Three-stage leveling results indicate that the rate of subsidence in the central and eastern plains is gradually increasing with the depression area expanding from 1960 to 2010. Based on these geodetic results, it can be inferred that the SNWD-C’s operation since 2014 has effectively mitigated the reduction in terrestrial water storage in the NCP. However, land subsidence in the NCP persists, as the subsidence rate does not turn around in sync with the change in EWH following the operation of SNWD-C. Consequently, it’s necessary to maintain and enforce existing policies, including controlling groundwater exploitation and water resources supply (e.g., SNWD-C) to curtail the exacerbation of land subsidence in the NCP. Additionally, continuous monitoring of land subsidence by GRACE, GNSS, leveling and other geodetic techniques is crucial to enable timely policy adjustments based on monitoring results.