Government Forecasts Research Articles

Petroleum Geology of Heavy Oil in the Oriente Basin of Ecuador: Exploration and Exploitation Challenge for the 1990s: ABSTRACT

Published Ecuadorian government forecasts suggest that Oriente basin light oil (21-32{degree} API) production may start to decline in the early to mid-1990s. To maintain stabilized production into the next century, heavy oil reserves (10-20{degree} API) will have to be aggressively exploited. The Oriente's undeveloped proven plus probable heavy reserves are substantial and are expected to exceed 0.5 billion bbl. A recent discovery made by Conoc Ecuador Ltd., operator of Block 16 for a group which consists of O.P.I.C., Maxus, Nomeco, Murphy and Canam, is a good model for future exploration and exploitation of heavy oil in the remote eastern regions of the basin. Amo-1 tested a low-relief anticline (less than 100 ft vertical closure) and encountered 10-20{degree} API oil in five Cretaceous sandstone reservoirs (8,000-10,000 ft depth). Cumulative test production was 1,062 BOPD. Subsequent drilling along the trend resulted in three additional discoveries. The Cretaceous sands were transported from the Brazilian shield by the westward flowing proto-Amazon River and were deposited in fluviodeltaic, tidal, and high-energy marginal marine environments. Air permeabilities are high and geometric mean values approaching several darcies. Porosities average 18-22% in generally well-consolidated sands. The heavy oils are the result of mild biodegradation and/or expulsion from amore » thermally immature source. Oil-to-oil correlations suggest that all of the basin oils have the same or similar origin, probably marine calcareous shales of the Cretaceous Napo formation. The Block 16 project will provide a major step toward the strategic exploitation of the Oriente basin's heavy oil reserves, when it comes on stream in the early 1990s.« less

THE ACCURACY OF GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AND BUDGET PROJECTIONS

accuracy in order to mitigate the need to Increased legislative focus on budget es- undertake program cuts. timates brought about by the Gramm- This paper examines the record of acRudman-Hollings Balanced Budget and curacy of the receipt, outlay, and deficit Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 estimates derived from administration and and the Tax Reform Act of 1986 has caused congressional macroeconomic forecasts to the accuracy of government economic fore- determine the historical reliability of each casts to come under greater scrutiny. This agency's estimates. The results suggest that short-run forecasts (two to three years paper examines the record of accuracy of florward) of both CBO and OMB do not the receipt, outlay, and deficit estimates contain systematic bias. Over longer pederived from administration and congres- riods, however, the forecasts deteriorate sional nwcroeconomic forecasts to deter- rapidly, particularly that of the budget mine the historical reliability of each deficit, as they reflect long-term goals for agency's estimate. The results suggest that roposed economic policy rather than an the short-run forecasts of CBO and OMB P do not contain systenwtic bias. Over longer actual forecast. periods, however, these projections deteriorated rapidly, particularly that of the 11. Background budget deficit. An abbreviated timetable of the budget process is shown in Figure 1. Beginning

France

The government of Mr. Chirac, which was elected in March, is establishing a liberalising, market‐oriented stance on economic policy. Controls on prices and foreign exchange have been relaxed, credit controls are being dismantled and, in spite of opposition from President Mitterrand, a large‐scale privatisation programme is planned. The draft 1987 budget proposes to cut public expenditure in real terms for the first time in 28 years and to use the savings to reduce both taxes and the budget deficit. The projected tightening of the fiscal stance is not expected to hold back output which the government forecasts will rise 2 1/2 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 1987. Inflation is also forecast to improve steadily and the current account is moving into surplus. Unemployment, currently at a postwar peak of 10.7 per cent, is expected to fall towards the end of the year.

Cyclone wind threat estimates for the Bay of Bengal

Public officials are frequently required to make decisions relative to cyclone preparedness actions. For such decisions to be defensible they usually adhere to an official government forecast, yet some allowance for forecast error must be made. Complex relationships between errors in track and in the forecast wind distribution confused by lack of user familiarity makes this a particularly difficult problem. This paper introduces the concept of wind threat as a means of quantifying the risk thereby allowing simultaneously for all types of errors. Some simple examples of the use of such probabilities in decision making are presented and the model which makes the threat estimates is described.

Japan's energy outlook

Japan is practically totally dependent on expensive imported oil and gas. The country's energy problem is further exacerbated by its high degree of industrialization and its rapid economic growth. According to government forecasts, based on the extrapolation of existing trends, the present rate of economic growth is expected to decline only very slightly during the first half of the 1980 decade, and even less in the second half. However, if this forecast is related to energy demand, it becomes clear that the bill for imported fuels would have to grow to an extent which the nation could not afford. The emphasis, therefore, must be placed on the energy problems of the near future. An estimate was made of the total amount of energy which could be made available by paying an affordable oil bill, while increasing at the same time domestically generated energy (by expansion of nuclear power plants and increased use of coal and solar energy), and replacing oil, whenever possible, with other fuels. The energy savings achievable by vigorous implementation of an extensive conservation program were also taken into account. It was found that in these circumstances the growth rate of the economy could not be maintained at the levels projected by the government. Thus, Japan has found itself in the unenviable position of letting energy deficiency curtail its economic growth, either by design or by the sheer weight of the oil bill. At this point, the political aspect of the energy problem comes to the fore because this delicate situation can only be managed in an orderly manner through a broad consensus of opinion as to what and how sacrifices should be made and shared equitably.

Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Hog Farrowings Statistics

OX AND OTHERS [4, 7] report that government statistics and price forecasts exhibited numerous shortcomings during the volatile economic conditions of 1973. Fox suggests that substantial infusions of money and effort will be required to develop a forecasting system that will perform satisfactorily under current conditions. Undoubtedly changes in government statistics and forecasts are needed. However, such changes should be carefully made, else good statistics will be discarded along with the bad. Hopefully, careful evaluation of shortcomings and strengths of each statistical series will precede any changes in the series. This paper represents an effort at such an evaluation for the USDA hog farrowings intentions report figures. This series was selected for study since the price elasticity of demand for hogs is low and errors in these statistics could cause large, unexpected, and disruptive price changes. Other series, especially those for other commodities with low demand elasticities, also might be evaluated using similar techniques. The quarterly 10-state farrowing intentions figures which were examined for accuracy in the study are released by the Statistical Reporting Service (SRS) in the Hog and Pig Report [10]. The initial report of farrowing intentions for a given quarter is issued by SRS about three months before the start of the quarter. Next, a revised report of quarterly farrowing intentions is issued early in the quarter to which it applies (referred to as first revision in study). Finally, in the next quarter SRS reports the actual number of sows that farmers did farrow during the quarter (referred to as second revision in study). In the study the accuracy of farrowing reports from September 1959, when 10-state' quarterly forecasts began on a continuous basis, to March 1973 was examined. During this period the SRS used three separate types of surveys to make forecasts: Rural Carrier Route Survey (RCRS), Probability Mail Survey (PMS), and Multiple Frame Survey (MFS). Thus, the analysis made a general evaluation of the accuracy of the farrowing reports as well as a determination of whether the changes in survey techniques resulted in increased accuracy. The Rural Carrier Route Survey (RCRS) covered the time period from September 1959 to March 1963. The survey included 10 states. The mailman was given survey cards to deliver on his route to farmers raising hogs. The farmer was asked to fill them out and return them by mail. The major survey took place every six months, June and December. In March and September a subsample of the farmers who replied in the previous survey was resampled. The Probability Mail Survey (PMS) covered 10 states during the time period from March 1963 to March 1970. The sample of farmers was drawn from the state farm census or a list from the ASCS office.

The Japanese Economy Today and Tomorrow

One of the authoritative Japanese economics journals published for foreigners contained a cartoon depicting the Japanese economy as a horse that had thrown its rider and was running in an unknown direction. A government planner wearing a professor's cap was attempting to overtake him. This cartoon serves as an illustration to the following text: Government planners today are disheartened and are losing faith in the effectiveness of their activity. They have been assigned the task of making a new economic forecast in place of the presently existing Plan of Economic and Social Development for 1970-1975. What especially alarms them is the fear that government forecasts will be fruitless and that social circles and businessmen will be more and more neglectful of government directives. One of the problems that concerns the economists in this connection is the problem of investment in plant and equipment, which in the past was the basic motive force behind economic growth. (1)

Survey of Medium and Long Term Government Forecasts

Australian Economic ReviewVolume 5, Issue 1 p. 37-45 Survey of Medium and Long Term Government Forecasts Daina Holden, Daina Holden Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this authorElizabeth B. Williamson, Elizabeth B. Williamson Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this authorMargaret J. Broadbent, Margaret J. Broadbent Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this author Daina Holden, Daina Holden Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this authorElizabeth B. Williamson, Elizabeth B. Williamson Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this authorMargaret J. Broadbent, Margaret J. Broadbent Institute research staffSearch for more papers by this author First published: April 1972 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1972.tb00967.xAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Volume5, Issue1April 1972Pages 37-45 RelatedInformation

Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression

Previous articleNext article No AccessForecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus AutoregressionS. S. Alexander, and H. O. SteklerS. S. Alexander Search for more articles by this author , and H. O. Stekler Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 67, Number 4Aug., 1959 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/258200 Views: 13Total views on this site Citations: 21Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1959 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Yongchen Zhao Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set, Journal of Business Cycle Research 16, no.22 (May 2020): 77–97.https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-020-00046-yHerman O. Stekler, Tianyu Ye Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread, Empirical Economics 53, no.11 (Jan 2017): 183–194.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1200-7Neil R. Ericsson How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?, International Journal of Forecasting 33, no.22 (Apr 2017): 543–559.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.09.001Jiayuan Chen, Cal B. Muckley, Don Bredin Is information assimilated at announcements in the European Carbon Market?, Energy Economics (Mar 2017).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.02.009Jiayuan Chen, Cal Muckley, Don Bredin, Liming Wang Carbon Rights and Emissions in the Energy Industry, (Aug 2016): 11–27.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32268-1_2H.O. Stekler, Yongchen Zhao Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2016).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2839879Alina Stundziene, Grazina Startiene, Rita Remeikiene, Mindaugas Dapkus Does the Survey Data on New Orders Lie?, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 (Dec 2015): 5–11.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.395Fred Joutz, Prakash Loungani, Tara Sinclair Honoring Herman: A special section for Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting 31, no.11 (Jan 2015): 93–95.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.001Jiayuan Chen, Cal B. Muckley, Don Bredin Is Information Assimilated at Announcements in the European Carbon Market?, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2616054Gabe J. de Bondt, Heinz C. Dieden, Sona Muzikarova, Istvan Vincze Modelling industrial new orders, Economic Modelling 41 (Aug 2014): 46–54.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.004Frederick L. Joutz Interview with Herman O. Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting 26, no.11 (Jan 2010): 195–203.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.001Bryan L. Boulier, H. O. Stekler The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation, Applied Financial Economics 11, no.44 (Aug 2001): 403–409.https://doi.org/10.1080/096031001300313965Nader Nazmi Forecasting cyclical turning points with an index of leading indicators: A probabilistic approach, Journal of Forecasting 12, no.3-43-4 (Apr 1993): 215–225.https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980120304H.O. Stekler Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques, International Journal of Forecasting 7, no.33 (Nov 1991): 375–384.https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(91)90011-JBarry R. Weller National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels, International Journal of Forecasting 5, no.22 (Jan 1989): 241–247.https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90091-5PAUL J. KOZLOWSKI Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance, Growth and Change 18, no.33 (Jul 1987): 62–73.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2257.1987.tb00081.xBarry R. Weller Usefulness of the newly revised composite index of leading indicators as a quantitative predictor, Journal of Macroeconomics 1, no.11 (Dec 1979): 141–147.https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704(79)90027-2R. F. Wynn, K. Holden Macro-economic Models II: The Preparation and Analysis of Forecasts, (Jan 1974): 176–237.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-15548-4_6H. O. Stekler, Martin Schepsman Forecasting with an Index of Leading Series, Journal of the American Statistical Association 68, no.342342 (Jun 1973): 291–296.https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1973.10482422Richard Long Forecasting Specific Turning Points, Journal of the American Statistical Association 65, no.330330 (Jun 1970): 520–531.https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1970.10481101S. W. Burch, H. O. Stekler The Forecasting Accuracy of Consumer Attitude Data, Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no.328328 (Dec 1969): 1225–1233.https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10501051

Government Forecasting in Canada

The most significant economic events of the past twenty years in the world at large, were the boom, the depression, the re-armament, and the war, and the lesson of this precarious period, more than of any other perhaps, is the necessity of trying to look ahead. The issue is not whether we should make forecasts or avoid forecasts. It is whether we should look ahead in a haphazard, unorganized way, or whether we should try to systematize our outlook, appraising current and foreseeable trends as part of a broader programme for maintaining high employment and sustained levels of income. Part of the federal government programme devoted to these ends, has been to set up a research unit which among other jobs, is attempting to develop a technique of forecasting suited to Canadian conditions, and which is trying to extend this as a basis for consideration of policy. This paper is a report on the progress of this forecasting unit: an attempt to state its objectives, the stage of development of its procedures, and its difficulties as they are now seen.These remarks should be prefaced by reference to an informal committee on forecasting, established in Ottawa by representatives of several federal departments. Much of the forecasting work is reviewed by that committee, and the content of this paper is much affected by its work. But this paper expresses a personal view of the matter, for which that committee would probably be unwilling to take much responsibility.