Japan's energy outlook

Abstract

Japan is practically totally dependent on expensive imported oil and gas. The country's energy problem is further exacerbated by its high degree of industrialization and its rapid economic growth. According to government forecasts, based on the extrapolation of existing trends, the present rate of economic growth is expected to decline only very slightly during the first half of the 1980 decade, and even less in the second half. However, if this forecast is related to energy demand, it becomes clear that the bill for imported fuels would have to grow to an extent which the nation could not afford. The emphasis, therefore, must be placed on the energy problems of the near future. An estimate was made of the total amount of energy which could be made available by paying an affordable oil bill, while increasing at the same time domestically generated energy (by expansion of nuclear power plants and increased use of coal and solar energy), and replacing oil, whenever possible, with other fuels. The energy savings achievable by vigorous implementation of an extensive conservation program were also taken into account. It was found that in these circumstances the growth rate of the economy could not be maintained at the levels projected by the government. Thus, Japan has found itself in the unenviable position of letting energy deficiency curtail its economic growth, either by design or by the sheer weight of the oil bill. At this point, the political aspect of the energy problem comes to the fore because this delicate situation can only be managed in an orderly manner through a broad consensus of opinion as to what and how sacrifices should be made and shared equitably.