Government Decision Research Articles

Nurses’ job preferences on the internet plus nursing service program: a discrete choice experiment

BackgroundThe Internet Plus Nursing Service (IPNS) is being instigated in all provincial-level regions throughout China, in which registered nurses (with more than five years of experience from qualified medical institutions) will provide services to those in their communities or homes after receiving online applications. The growing shortage of human resources in nursing is a critical issue for this project, so effective policies for recruiting and retaining nurses are critical.ObjectiveThis study aims to pinpoint the significant job characteristics that play a crucial role in shaping the job decisions of sharing nurses in the IPNS program, and to estimate the strength of job attributes.MethodsA discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to assess job attributes influencing sharing nurses’ preferences. A qualitative design, including in-depth interview and focus interview methods, was conducted to determine the inclusion of attributes. The final included six attributes were: work modes, duration per visit, income per visit, personal safety, medical risk prevention, and refresher training. This study was conducted at 13 hospitals in Guangdong Province, China, from April to June 2022, and a total of 220 registered sharing nurses participated in the survey. The multinomial logit model explored attributes and relative valued utility. Preference heterogeneity is explored via latent class analysis (LCA) models.ResultsA total of 220 participants answered the questionnaire. Income was the most influential characteristic of a sharing nursing position, followed by personal safety management, duration per visit, medical risk prevention, and refresher training, and nurses’ preferences differed among different types of classes.ConclusionsSharing nurses place most value on income and personal safety with career-related decisions, which indicates an urgent need to develop complete security for personal safety. This study can be helpful to decision-makers in the Chinese government.

Analyzing public demands on China's online government inquiry platform: A BERTopic-Based topic modeling study.

This study aims to enhance governmental decision-making by leveraging advanced topic modeling algorithms to analyze public letters on the "People Call Me" online government inquiry platform in Zhejiang Province, China. Employing advanced web scraping techniques, we collected publicly available letter data from Hangzhou City between June 2022 and May 2023. Initial descriptive statistical analyses and text mining were conducted, followed by topic modeling using the BERTopic algorithm. Our findings indicate that public demands are chiefly focused on livelihood security and rights protection, and these demands exhibit a diversity of characteristics. Furthermore, the public's response to significant emergency events demonstrates both sensitivity and deep concern, underlining its pivotal role in government emergency management. This research not only provides a comprehensive landscape of public demands but also validates the efficacy of the BERTopic algorithm for extracting such demands, thereby offering valuable insights to bolster the government's agility and resilience in emergency responses, enhance public services, and modernize social governance.

A holistic approach to projecting streamflow and analyzing changes in ecologically relevant hydrological indicators under climate and land use/cover change

Understanding streamflow change and its ecological impacts under climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) makes possible the improvement of water and ecological governance decision-making. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of historical streamflow changes can provide valuable insights for effective projections of future streamflow. Meanwhile, future changes in ecologically relevant hydrological indicators need more attention to maintain the ecological stability of rivers. This study has developed a holistic framework based on a physically based model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, or VIC) and the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) method to decouple the drivers of historical streamflow change and to project changes in future streamflow and ecologically relevant hydrologic indicators. The proposed framework was applied in the upper Han River basin (UHRB), which is the water source for the water diversion project in China. The results showed that climate change contributed 99.67 % of the streamflow decrease in the 1980–1990s and 108.21 % and 102.09 % of the streamflow increase in the 1990–2000s and 2000–2010s respectively. LUCC had a weak impact on streamflow in these three periods. Projected climate change will further exacerbate streamflow change. The projected monthly streamflow is expected to increase from October to December. The counts of streamflow pulses are expected to decrease, but the duration of each high pulse will increase. These changes will cause stress in floodplain vegetation, alterations to stream chemistry, reductions in fish diversity (decreased streamflow pulses), and alterations to river landscape and animal habitat (increased flood duration). The developed framework is expected to provide significant technical guidance for water resource management and river conservation.

Cabozantinib (Cabometyx)


 CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class.
 The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec.
 This review assesses:
 
 Cabozantinib (Cabometyx): 40 mg once daily, oral tablet
 Nivolumab (Opdivo): 240 mg every 2 weeks, 30-minute IV infusion, or 480 mg every 4 weeks, 30-minute IV infusion.
 
 
 Indication: Cabozantinib, in combination with nivolumab, is indicated for the first-line treatment of adult patients with advanced (not amenable to curative surgery or radiation therapy) or metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

Federalism, Decentral Governance, and Joint Decision-Making: Bad News for the Implementation of International Environmental Agreements?

Abstract There is a lingering myth in the international compliance literature that domestic multilevel structures have a negative impact on the fulfilment of international commitments. This article argues that this literature has failed to understand multilevel structures as a multi-layered concept. Instead of viewing multilevel governance as a one-dimensional concept or a mere system of veto-players, I propose to study the effects of the individual components, i.e., federalism, decentral governance, and joint decision-making. I test the plausibility of this approach by analyzing the implementation of the Ramsar Wetlands Convention. My findings debunk the myth about the negative effects of multilevel structures on the implementation of international agreements. I show that states in which subnational decision-makers can act autonomously from the central level are better placed to produce implementation measures in the area of environmental conservation.

Offshoring, hierarchical control and transnational and dynamic environments

PurposeThis study aims to examine the effect of exploratory innovation offshoring on the level of hierarchical control and how this effect is moderated by transnational and dynamic environments.Design/methodology/approachThis study draws on a sample of 148 Taiwanese multinational enterprises to examine their governance decisions on foreign investments.FindingsFindings show that the more innovation offshoring is exploratory, the higher the level of hierarchical control will be used by multinational enterprises (MNEs) and that transnational and dynamic environments have different moderation effects on the positive exploratory innovation offshoring-hierarchical control relationship.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has two theoretical implications. First, this study extends the concept of complexity from a transaction attribute level (problem) to an environmental level (transnational environment) and finds that exploratory innovation offshoring and transnational environments interactively impact governance choices. Second, this study distinguishes between two sources of technological uncertainty – uncertainty due to transaction-level attributes (exploratory innovation offshoring) and external environments (dynamic environments) and finds that exploratory innovation offshoring and dynamic environments interactively impact governance choices.Practical implicationsThe practical implication of this study lies in the simultaneous consideration of exploratory innovation offshoring and transnational/dynamic environments, which will allow international decision-makers to adjust/select the governance forms most appropriate for speedy responding to and handling environmental changes.Originality/valueThis study employs the theoretical perspectives of transaction cost economics (TCE) and resource-based view (RBV) to analyze and discuss the impact of operational environments – transnational and dynamic environments – on MNEs’ decisions on the governance structure for a given innovation offshoring.

Strategic flexibility in healthcare: an exploration of real options

PurposeThis survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.Design/methodology/approachThis research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.FindingsThree different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.Practical implicationsThis research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.Social implicationsDecisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.Originality/valueThe originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

Factors Associated with Israeli Social Workers' Intention to Stay in the Profession.

The phenomenon of social workers leaving the profession occurs frequently, underscoring the importance of understanding factors contributing to the intention to stay (ITS) in the profession. Based on the job demands-resources theory (JD-R), this study examined selected social worker workplace "demands" (i.e., their organizational sector of employment and level of work-family conflict) and "resources" (i.e., levels of meaning, locus of control, and salary satisfaction at work). Online survey data were obtained from 407 Israeli social workers. The findings showed that higher levels of meaning and salary satisfaction at work, greater professional seniority, and lower levels of work-family conflict were associated with greater ITS in the profession. Data were gathered during the COVID-19 pandemic, enabling examination of variables contributing to the ITS during times of crisis. These findings confirm that meaning at work is the main factor that motivates social worker ITS in the profession. Salary satisfaction was also found to be an essential factor, highlighting the recent escalation in social worker demands for fair compensation in Israel. Greater work-family balance also contributed to ITS. These findings should be considered by governmental decision makers and welfare service providers wishing to preserve this essential workforce, not just in Israel but also in other countries.

Ibrutinib (Imbruvica)


 CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class.
 The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec.
 This review assesses ibrutinib (Imbruvica) 140 mg capsule, oral.
 Indication: Ibrutinib in combination with venetoclax for the treatment of adult patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia, including those with 17p deletion.

Elexacaftor-Tezacaftor-Ivacaftor and Ivacaftor (Trikafta)

CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class. The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec. This review assesses elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor and ivacaftor (Trikafta): Elexacaftor 100 mg–tezacaftor 50 mg–ivacaftor 75 mg (granules) and ivacaftor 75 mg (granules), oral Elexacaftor 80 mg–tezacaftor 40 mg–ivacaftor 60 mg (granules) and ivacaftor 59.5 mg (granules), oral Patients aged 6 years and older: Elexacaftor 50 mg–tezacaftor 25 mg–ivacaftor 37.5 mg (combination tablet) and ivacaftor 75 mg (tablet), oral Elexacaftor 100 mg–tezacaftor 50 mg–ivacaftor 75 mg (combination tablet) and ivacaftor 150 mg (tablet), oral. Indication: For the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) in patients aged 2 years and older who have at least 1 F508del mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene.

Peter the Great’s Project to Defend the Philadelphia Metropolitanate

The article uses the materials of the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Empire to study the mission of Hegumen Gerasim Foca, who in 1722 came to ask Emperor Peter the Great for help to the Orthodox of Venice. For the first time, the Greek community appealed to the head of the Russian state, delegating a cleric of St. George’s Church to do so. Correspondence between the College of Foreign Affairs and the Holy Synod provides details of the case and the project of assistance to the Orthodox of Venice. From the case files, we also learn about the decision of the Russian government to open a diplomatic mission in the republic. The documents contain information about the personality of Gerasim Foca, as well as about the circumstances of his life in Russia. At the same time, the project, aimed at helping the faithful of Italy and strengthening Russia's influence in the Apennines and the Balkans, remained unrealized.However, during the 18th century, the cooperation of the Russian government with the Greeks was successful, which led not only to the opening of the consulate and the restitution of the orthodox church but later to the establishment of the regular embassy and the Russian chapel. The Russian consulate, which Greeks invariably leaded, co-existed in parallel with the Russian embassy and continued its activities after the abolition of the Venetian Republic.

Cartographic ignorance and territorial misrepresentation: The 1967 redrawing of Israel’s national map

Shortly after the June 1967 War, in which Israel seized vast territories beyond its borders, the Israeli government removed Israel’s internationally recognised border (the Green Line) from all official maps of the state. Since then, Israeli maps misrepresent the state’s sovereign territory and the occupied territories as one territorial unit. This article examines the changing of Israel’s national map by drawing on agnotology, the study of the production of ignorance, and critical settler colonial cartography scholarship. It first demonstrates that the misleading map has detrimentally eroded the legibility of the state’s territory for Israelis and impeded their ability to comprehend its geography, to argue that spatial ignorance may substantiate settler colonial endeavours. The article then turns to charting the ‘geography of ignorance’ that has underwritten the governmental decision to change the map. It argues that as government ministers resorted to dissembling their obliviousness to evade their complicity in an act of cartographic duplicity, they were misguided by their own cartographic misapprehensions. Ignorant of the ‘logo effect’ of national maps, they were unaware that by changing the map they were amalgamating Israel’s colonial expansionism into the spatiality of Israel’s nationhood. Since the deliberate inducing of ignorance is unruly, and the ramifications of such endeavours can easily escape the intentions and understandings of its propagators, agnotology research should account for how those who conspire to hamper the knowledge of others may be led astray by their own ignorance.

La contabilidad gubernamental y su influencia en la toma de decisiones en gobiernos locales

Government accounting contributes to public administration by enabling the supervision of finances, informed decision-making and efficient management of public resources. In this context, this study focuses on analyzing how the quality and availability of accounting information affects the strategic and operational decisions of local governments. To carry out this research, a descriptive analysis approach was used, reviewing a total of 41 relevant articles on the subject. The results obtained reveal a direct connection between the quality of accounting information and strategic and operational decisions, especially at key moments such as the implementation of the Financial Management System (SIAF) and the adoption of the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) in Ecuador. The findings of the study indicate that overcoming the challenges associated with the quality and availability of accounting information are necessary, and that to achieve this requires the implementation of continuous training programs and the adoption of modern technologies in government accounting.

Polscy emigranci polistopadowi w zachodniej Francji i projekt wyprawy portugalskiej z 1833 r.

Polish Post-November refugees in western France and the 1833 Portuguese expedition project The idea produced by general officer Józef Bem and price Adam Jerzy Czartoryski to form a Polish Legion in Portugal in 1833 is an interesting subject in the context of international situation, French policy towards Polish post November refugees and as far as the situation within Polish emigration is concerned. Polish Legion was intended to participate in the Portuguese civil war on the side of the liberals and the supporters of constitutional monarchy. The Poles wanted to fight for the freedom of nations and were attracted by the perspective of military service in the Portuguese Army. French government informally supported the Poles expedition to Portugal perceiving it as a prospect of limiting expenditures on political refugees as well as an opportunity for calming down social anxiety, since the presence of Polish refugees in France caused numerous manifestations and riots. The Poles were allowed to gather on the West Coast of France. Initially, more than a dozen people went to the Breton island of Belle-Île where they spent a year and a half waiting for the opportunity to depart. Later on, the Poles were gathering in Nantes. As general officer Józef Bem’s idea was becoming less and less probable, some of them were directed to settle in Côtes-du-Nord department. Those determined to leave headed for the city of La Rochelle. The article presents the preparations for the Portuguese Expedition mostly from the perspective of the French authorities: how government decisions regulated the issues of the possible leave of the Poles and the engagement of French local authorities in this Polish project.

Crisis and environmental governance decisions amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from European countries

This study investigates the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on environmental governance decisions within publicly listed European companies. It utilizes a comprehensive analysis of publicly available data regarding these firms and check the environmental governance practices during the pandemic, informed by risk society theory which describes modern societies marked by ongoing risks and uncertainties primarily stemming from technological and scientific advancements. The regression and robustness analysis has been performed on how companies have responded to the crisis, specifically in terms of their approaches to environmental sustainability and governance. Covid-19 has a significantly positive impact on environmental governance (EG), with a coefficient of 18.73 and a p-value of .000. Other variables like human development (HD), size, and free cash flow (FCF) positively affect EG, while corruption (Corrupt) and leverage (Lev) have a negative influence. Robust analysis confirms the negative impact of Covid-19 on EG, with a coefficient of 18.46 and a p-value below .01, consistent across different subsamples. However, it also underscores the challenges companies have encountered in upholding their sustainability efforts amid the crisis. In sum, this research offers valuable insights into how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected environmental governance decisions, with potential implications for policymakers, regulators, and business leaders striving to advance sustainability in the post-pandemic landscape.

Nickel export ban policy in Indonesia - a path to sustainable economic development?

Electric-based vehicles (EV) come as an option for the solution over the GHG emissions problem resulting from energy production and transportation. Background. The demand for nickel, as a vital component of the lithium-ion batteries used in EV increases significantly and Indonesia plays a critical role as the owner of the world's largest nickel reserve. While exporting raw materials can increase national income, Indonesia misses out on the opportunity to capture higher value-added benefits from downstream processing and manufacturing. The nickel export ban policy is proposed by the Indonesian government as an effort to encourage the growth of the domestic nickel processing industry and capture higher value from the country’s nickel resources. From the creation of domestic value addition, industrial development, and sustainable resource management, it is hoped that Indonesia will move toward sustainable economic development. Methods. This paper reviewed component required to assess the nickel export strategy for long-term economic growth. We used a straightforward approach, outlining each sustainability principle's underlying objectives and providing justifications for why it should be considered in the nickel sector. By citing justifications for their advantages and justifications for their risks, we analyzed the existing policy. Results and discussions. Indonesia's nickel sector does not comply with sustainability principles and is used as a raw material for electric vehicle batteries, but it may only benefit a few people rather than the general welfare of the community. Conclusion. Therefore, the government's decision to impose a ban on nickel exports is correct, but it must be accompanied by efforts to improve both in terms of technology and policies regarding natural resource management. To control the power inclination to ensure sustainability and equality that sustainable natural resource management promotes, further study of the political component is required.

Easement of forests and forest land for the growing of perennial crops - the analysis of (non)functionality regarding the ecological network and ecosystem functions

By the Government's decisions from the period 2004 to 2013, a significant amount of state forests and forest land was eased for the growing of perennial crops (vineyards and olive yards) on a total surface of 24,310.24 ha throughout the state. Although greatly opposed by forestry professionals, since a vast amount of private agricultural land in the state is not utilized due to unresolved proprietary issues, these surfaces have become agricultural land by coming into force from the Forest Act of 2014. In case these dedicated surfaces are not put into function, the amount of non-utilized agricultural land is increasing and so is the danger from forest fires, and loss of biological and landscape diversity. On the other hand, if all these surfaces were utilized, a significant adverse impact on the ecological network would occur because on many ecological network sites more than 1% of the dedicated area consists of target habitat types (mostly maquis). The purpose of this paper is, to use GIS tools and analysis of the so-far signed easement contracts, to determine what amount of dedicated surfaces were utilized and point out the failure and environmental dangers that may arise from these decisions which can still be revoked, and the affected area can be brought back into the forest area of the Republic of Croatia, i. e. sustainable forest management can still be reinstated and forest functions restored.

Environmental impacts of potential mining-replacing-import alternative for China in response to the China-Australia coal ban

Australia is a long-term key partner of China in coal trading, which is famous for high-quality coal and its price advantage. However, affected by the evolution of international political and economic situation, China has issued a coal ban on Australian coal since the end of 2020. The potential environmental consequences of this coal ban remain unclear. So, this paper quantifies the ban's impact on air pollution, human health and climate change by simulating the emission difference between the port scenario (simulating the emissions due to Australian coal import under business as usual) and the mine scenario (simulating the emissions due to domestic coal mining that converted from import share of Australian coal), and monetizes the losses into economic costs for direct comparison. The results illustrate the emission of SO2, VOCs and GHG in mine scenario grows up to 102, 12 and 6 times the amount of that in port scenario, mainly deriving from coal mining process in the North China Plain and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. It shows that the potential alternative of replacing import with mining leads to PM2.5 pollution exacerbation and O3 pollution abatement, which causes 148 (95 % CI: 101–183) non-communicable diseases and respiratory disease-related deaths in total. As for GHG, the emission of BC in transportation process and fugitive methane in coal mining process contribute to an impressive effect on warming potential with few quantities, which is worth noting in control process. In total, the environmental deterioration resulted in an economic loss of approximately 934 million yuan. The undiminished demand for high-quality industrial coal as well as growing carbon tax could make the economic value of the coal ban's environmental consequences more considerable in the near future. This research emphasizes the contradiction between economic development and environmental improvement caused by excessive dependence on coal and addresses a critical knowledge gap in assessing the ban's environmental impact by economic value. The result directly demonstrates the environmental consequences of the potential mining-replacing-import alternative and helps better understand environmental influences on the Chinese government's decision.

Somapacitan (Sogroya)


 CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class.
 The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec.
 This review assesses somapacitan (Sogroya), 5 mg/1.5 mL (3.3 mg/mL), 10 mg/1.5 mL (6.7 mg/mL), 15 mg/1.5 mL (10 mg/mL) as a prefilled pen for subcutaneous injection.
 Indication: For the long-term treatment of pediatric patients who have growth failure due to an inadequate secretion of endogenous growth hormone (growth hormone deficiency).

FORESIGHT AS A TOOL FOR RESPONSIBLE PUBLIC MANAGEMENT AND ADJUSTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE FOCUS OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS

The purpose of the article is to study strategic long-term planning tools that allow timely identification of the latest risks, challenges and threats to international economic development that make it difficult to solve global problems that are a consequence of failures in the coordination of international economic policy. It has been determined that strategic forecasting allows politicians to increase the efficiency of government decision-making by identifying opportunities and threats that may arise in the coming years and decades, and also involves the development of possible strategies to counter them by taking into account the characteristics of the identified trends. The phenomenon of the new economy is characterized. The influence of technological development on the asymmetry of international economic development is determined. It has been established that the problems of international economic development in foresight strategizing include geopolitical rivalry, resource confrontation, energy dependence, deglobalization, disintegration processes, trade fragmentation, gaps in value and supply chains, reinstitutionalization of the system of international economic relations, recession, population aging, unemployment. Foresight forecasting tools that are not aimed at predicting a single “correct future” include: analysis of long-term trends and uncertainties; horizon scanning); scenario planning; shaping a normative future; political games; futures wheels; causal multilevel analysis. Research into long-term trends and uncertainties reveals key factors in different possible futures. The comprehensive observation carried out allows us to identify risks for the macroeconomic environment and proactively formulate a pool of measures to minimize the destructive impact of instability on socio-economic development. Improving foresight research as a critical element of strategic forecasting for solving problems of long-term development affects both theoretical aspects (conceptual approach, conceptual apparatus) and applied aspects (technologies and methods of development) of the development and use of this tool. Strategic planning allows you to develop adequate tools to achieve goals and proactively respond to the challenges of modern development, minimizing costs and compensating for the losses that arise for this reason, which lead to the loss of existing competitive advantages. The difference between forecasts and foresights is noted: forecasts are usually associated with uncontrollable events, while foresights most often deal with events and processes that are clearly controllable, therefore they assess the probability of not only one or another outcome of future events, but also the adoption of certain strategic and management decisions. The ability to distinguish normative approaches (what we want) from pragmatic approaches (what we should) is an important component of thinking in terms of alternative futures