Global Warming Policy Research Articles

The Search for Yield in Coming Decades

Defense spending, an aging population, a slowing economy, global warming, energy needs, and government policy—all are factors concerning prospective returns in the U.S. bond market in the coming years. Economic cycles are likely to see rising interest rates and a continuing slowdown in the U.S. economy in the near term. Portfolio managers should thus look to preserve capital in the face of what is likely to be a challenging interest rate environment.

From Stockholm to Kyoto and beyond: A review of the globalization of global warming policy and North–South relations

This paper provides a historical overview of the role of North–South differences in expectation and priorities in determining how international negotiations about global warming have been framed and implemented. Our analysis looks at two themes: the problem of technology transfer and knowledge inequity and the persistence of the G-77 as the point of departure for Southern action within the context of environmental negotiations. Our argument is that the North and South remain divided on the consequences of linking environment and development for future policy on conserving the global commons. In particular, the problem of accepting the burden of readjustment appears to be politically unacceptable to both North and South.

The importance of expressly examining global warming policy issues through an ethical prism

A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly, however, there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous, obvious, and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health, the environment, and many things humans value greatly. This paper argues that ethical analysis of global warming issues is practically imperative for two reasons. First, unless ethical is made analysis is made of global warming issues, ethically dubious decisions about global warming will be made because many of the most important ethical considerations are hidden in what appear to be ethically neutral scientific and economic arguments about global warming policy options. Secondly, unless issues of ethics, justice and equity are expressly dealt with, urgently needed global solutions to global warming will not likely be adopted by many nations. That is, an ethical focus on global warming matters is the key to achieve a globally acceptable solution and to harness political support for action. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how institutions and nations should go about implementing express examination of the ethical dimensions of global warming questions. The paper argues for express identification of ethical issues often hidden in scientific and economic analyses of global warming policy options.

Book Review: Taken by Storm. The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming, World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030, ‘Nuclear energy and the Kyoto Protocol’

Book Review: Taken by Storm. The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming, World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030, ‘Nuclear energy and the Kyoto Protocol’

American heat: ethical problems with the United States' response to global warming

Part 1 Preliminary Matters Chapter 2 Absence of Ethical Concern Chapter 3 History of U.S. Participation in Global Warming Negotiations Chapter 4 Environmental Ethics and Global Warming Policy Chapter 5 Global Warming, Ethics, and Foreign Policy Chapter 6 What Is At Stake? Global Warming's Threat to Human Health and the Environment Chapter 7 Uncertainty in the Scinece of Climate Change Part 8 Ethical Analysis of U.S. Excuses for Lack of Action on Global Warming Chapter 9 The Ethical Duty to Reduce Emission in the Face of Scientific Uncertainty about Global Warming Consequences Chapter 10 U.S. Obligation to Act Even if the Developing World Does Not Chapter 11 Ethical Issues Entailed by the Use of Cost-Benefit Analysis-Based Arguments Made In Oppositition to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Programs Chapter 12 Ethical Problems With the U.S. Insistence on Its View of the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms Part 13 Other Global Warming Ethical Issues Chapter 14 An Equitable Allocation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions among Nations Chapter 15 Ethical Dimensions of a Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization Target Chapter 16 Conclusion: Some Additional Issues Chapter 17 Glossary

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost–benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly.

Position Statement on ‘Global Warming Science and Policy’

Position Statement on ‘Global Warming Science and Policy’

A Dynamic Analysis of the Marketable Permits Approach to Global Warming Policy: A Comparison of Spatial and Temporal Flexibility

This paper presents a generalized dynamic model of greenhouse gas emissions trading under constraints on the volume of transactions. An empirical version of the model is used to evaluate potentially cost-saving flexibility mechanisms (joint implementation and clean development mechanism) and potentially cost-adding restrictions (supplementarity) of the Kyoto Protocol. The results indicate the greatest gains would stem from extending permit trading spatially among industrialized nations, although sizable gains would also emanate from the inclusion of developing countries. Gains from intertemporal trading (banking and borrowing) are meager. Restrictions on the volume of permit purchases have by far the most costly effect when developing countries are incorporated into trading. Sensitivity tests with respect to differential discount rates across countries and technological change indicate the results are robust.

Complex coupled system dynamics and the global warming policy problem

A Public Domain, once a velvet carpet of rich buffalo‐grass and grama, now an illimitable waste of rattlesnake‐bush and tumbleweed, too impoverished to be accepted as a gift by the states within which it lies. Why? Because the ecology of this Southwest happened to be set on a hair trigger.—Aldo Leopold. 1933. The Conservation Ethic. Journal of Forestry 33: 636–637.

Challenging Global Warming as a Social Problem: An Analysis of the Conservative Movement's Counter-Claims

The sociological literature on global environmental change emphasizes the processes by which the problem of global warming is socially constructed. However, the opposing efforts to construct the “non-problematicity” of global warming advanced by the conservative movement are largely ignored. Utilizing recent work on framing processes in the social movements literature and claims-making from the social problems literature, this paper analyzes the counter-claims promoted by the conservative movement between 1990 and 1997 as it mobilized to challenge the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. A thematic content analysis of publications circulated on the web sites of prominent conservative think tanks reveals three major counter-claims. First, the movement criticized the evidentiary basis of global warming as weak, if not entirely wrong. Second, the movement argued that global warming will have substantial benefits if it occurs. Third, the movement warned that proposed action to ameliorate global warming would do more harm than good. In short, the conservative movement asserted that, while the science of global warming appears to be growing more and more uncertain, the harmful effects of global warming policy are becoming increasingly certain . In order to better understand the controversy over global warming, future research should pay attention to the influence of the conservative movement by identifying the crucial roles of conservative foundations, conservative think tanks, and sympathetic “skeptic” scientists in undermining the growing scientific consensus over the reality of global warming.

Population, Development and Global Warming: Averting the Tragedy of the Climate Commons

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change.

Global warming policy: who decides what is fair?

Global warming policy: who decides what is fair?

International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy

ne of the major obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement on global warming is the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for individual countries. Long-standing tensions between industrialized and developing countries have raised the issue of equity in burden-sharing. Moreover, individual industrialized nations have pleaded special circumstances and have sought differentiation in their obligations. This paper analyzes alternative rules for distributing tradable carbon dioxide emissions permits. A non-linear programming model, which distinguishes between allocation-based and outcome-based rules, is used to analyze the relative welfare outcomes. The model is applied to the world body of nations and yields several important policy implications.

Commentary: Global Warming Policy: Population Left Out in the Cold

Commentary: Global Warming Policy: Population Left Out in the Cold

How to Decide When Experts Disagree: Uncertainty-Based Choice Rules in Environmental Policy

Environmental economists have traditionally addressed the issue of choice under uncertainty by applying the expected utility hypothesis. When policymakers face a panel of experts with widely divergent beliefs, the problem may more accurately be described as a case of choice under pure uncertainty. Arrow and Hurwicz (1972) demonstrate that rational choice criteria under pure uncertainty will focus on the extremes of the state space, not the midpoint as is typically assumed. Using Nordhaus's DICE model, uncertainty-based choices about global warming policies are evaluated. Linkages to the safe minimum standard and the precautionary principle are also discussed.

The [formula omitted] model: Integrating the science and economics of global warming

PAGE is a computer simulation model developed in 1992 for policy analysis of the global warming problem. This paper surveys key developments in understanding the global warming problem that have occurred since 1992. For example, anthropogenic sulphates have been found to have a significant cooling effect. Halocarbons, once thought to be the most potent greenhouse gases, are now believed to have only a slight global warming effect because they destroy ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas. Furthermore, case studies in various regions of the world have improved our ability to predict future damages from global warming. These developments have strong implications for the economic consequences of the greenhouse effect and motivated an update of the PAGE model. This paper discusses the new model version, PAGE95 , and conclusions for global warming policy analysis.

PAGE95: An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming

A vital measure for global warming policy is the marginal impact of a tonne of carbon emitted to the atmosphere. In economic terms, this value corresponds to the carbon tax level needed to internalize the externalities associated with climate change. This study re-evaluates the marginal impact of CO 2 emissions in the light of new scientific and economic understanding of the cooling effects of sulphate aerosols and ozone depletion, the regional distribution of global warming damages, non-linearity in damage as a function of temperature rise and the appropriate discount rate.

Geoeconomic time and global warming: renewable energy and conservation policy

The concept of geoeconomic time, introduced here, is based on the interface among economic activity, technology, and geophysical processes. Geoeconomic time is what should frame economic analysis of global warming policy. Otherwise, the analysis will be flawed. Application of geoeconomic time to global warming has two parts. The first is the future time frame for projecting impacts on the earth. The second is the historic time frame for delineating our bounds of ignorance regarding the possible consequences of global warming. Many economic analyses conclude against policies to reduce emissions of warming gases, and instead conclude in favour of the “optimal” policy of adapting to global warming. The concept of geoeconomic time reveals that the magnitude of our ignorance is of such a scale that we can never reduce uncertainty sufficiently to design “optimal” policies. Concludes in favour of risk‐reducing policies for research, development and commercialization of energy efficiency technologies and renewable energy. Successful examples can be found at the state and local levels of government action.

Global warming policy, energy, and the Chinese economy

China is the world's largest user of coal and therefore a major generator of greenhouse gases. This paper addresses the issue of whether the country can reconfigure its energy structure without hindering its future economic development. We construct a dynamic linear programming model of the Chinese economy and use it to simulate five alternative strategies to stabilize CO 2 emissions at 20% of projected year 2000 baseline levels. Our results, under more optimistic assumptions, indicate this goal can be achieved with no growth penalty. However, if major technological changes relating to energy conservation and coal displacement, as well as vastly increasing availabilities of clean fuels, are not forthcoming, China could suffer a significant decline in its rate of economic growth.

Berlin and global warming policy

Berlin and global warming policy