Global Warming Policy Research Articles

Climate security reversed: the implications of alternative security policies for global warming

ABSTRACT Policymakers and scholars have in recent years paid increasing attention to the climate–security nexus. However, discussions have been overwhelmingly focused on the security implications of climate change, neglecting the question of the climate implications of alternative approaches to security. On closer inspection, security policies can impact global warming in at least four ways. First, security apparatuses produce direct greenhouse gas emissions. Second, security policies can condition domestic decarbonisation efforts by competing, to a greater or lesser extent, with green transition efforts for public investment. Some policies will also be more likely than others to foster climate-friendly technological spill-overs. Third, security policies can affect spending priorities in other states, thus shaping decarbonisation efforts overseas. Finally, security competition can influence the wider climate for environmental cooperation. Accordingly, when assessing alternative security policies, observers should factor in known climate costs as well as the potential for creating negative externalities vis-à-vis decarbonisation efforts.

Editorial Introduction

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Estimating dynamic climate change effects of material use in buildings—Timing, uncertainty, and emission sources

Material use in buildings affects the climate over centuries, however, temporal aspects are often ignored in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Results too often promise uncontested precision of impacts occurring far into the future. Additionally, the validity of building LCAs is being questioned over inadequate scope and inventory.A dynamic LCA method for material use in buildings that addresses those concerns is presented, along with a case study of 20 buildings. In particular, a novel solution to account for delayed emissions is presented, along with future technological improvements. Climate change effects of material use in construction, operation, and end-of-life phases are estimated, from production, transport, construction-waste incineration, biogenic carbon-sequestration, and cement carbonation. Building subpart metrics reveal drivers of impacts and are used for generating statistical emission profiles.Application on a bottom-up harmonized dataset produces statistical results for building types (typology, timber/concrete) and building subparts (building elements, material categories). Global warming policy targets requires that the building industry focuses on interventions with short-term effects, such as low-impact materials in the construction phase and reduced construction waste.Uncertainty is estimated, and parameter influence assessed with global sensitivity analysis. Time horizon (TH), building lifetime, and construction waste parameters are found most sensitive. The method reduces uncertainty of postulated future impacts; an important step in the direction of policy-relevant modeling. We recommend that building LCA modeling practice adopts the presented methodological concepts to gain trust and policy-relevance.

Public support for global warming policies: solution framing matters

One of the biggest challenges to sustainability is lack of public support for policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Across three studies, we explored how solution framing impacts public support for financially costly policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Study 1 analyzed data from a statewide public opinion poll (N = 771), while studies 2 (N = 100) and 3 (N = 163) were laboratory-based experiments. Specifically, we found that polling questions that asked about a financially costly climate change policy received more support when the goal of the policy was to create efficient technologies than when the goal was to curtail behavior. In addition, we replicate previous research showing that there is a partisan gap for beliefs about global warming and extend this research to show that the partisan gap is not found when looking at support for solutions. The implications of these results for promoting needed climate change policies is discussed.

The Circulation of Climate Change Denial Online: Rhetorical and Networking Strategies on Facebook

ABSTRACTThis study uses a topical, rhetorical approach to analyze how climate change denial circulates online through the 25 most popular posts on the Watts Up With That and the Global Warming Policy Forum Facebook pages. These groups adopt the appearance of credibility through reposting and hyperlinking, thus establishing a supportive, networked space among other skeptical sites, while distancing readers from original sources of scientific information. Visitors use a variety of rhetorical strategies to echo posts’ main themes and to discredit alternative viewpoints. Differences between the topoi and rhetorical strategies of WUWT and the GWPF show that the climate change denial community is multifaceted and makes use of social media affordances to craft the appearance of legitimacy. This project contributes to our knowledge of how scientific information is co-opted, manipulated, and circulated in online spaces and how online features shape environmental discourse practices.

Is CCS still relevant?

AbstractDoes the commercial deployment of carbon capture and storage still make sense in the power generating sector when fuels, other than coal can be used? For countries where coal predominates is it worthwhile adopting what is still an expensive technology? Have governments, particularly those in the developed nations, been too reticent to say that overall, the economics don't stack up and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is just too expensive?These are some of the areas explored in a study, “The Bottomless Pit: The Economics of Carbon Capture and Storage”. In this interview, the report's author Gordon Hughes, Professor of Economics at the University of Edinburgh, tells GHGS&T about his findings. The report is published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Why does the United States lack a global warming policy? The corporate inner circle versus public interest sector elites

ABSTRACTWhy has the United States not adopted global warming policies? Because the inner circle of the corporate elite has opposed these policies despite some corporate support for cap-and-trade and other policies. Pro- and anti-positions taken by think tanks that have led the policy debate in the post-Kyoto period are analyzed in order to demonstrate this. The corporate and upper class social ties of the directors of these pro- and anti-think tanks are examined, revealing a corporate elite split between the inner circle opposing these policies, and a ‘public interest sector’ of corporate law and media corporations along with top executives from higher education and other nonprofits that is supportive of policies addressing global warming. To enable adoption of major global warming policies, the corporate inner circle will need to become supportive and forge a class-wide corporate consensus on the need to address global warming.

A new approach of carbon emission allocation among stakeholders: an expansion of Multiregional and Multisectoral Dynamic Energy-Economic Model THERESIA

This paper aims at the assessment of the sectoral/regional partial participation in the global warming coalition applying the Multiregional and Multisectoral Dynamic Energy-Economic Model THERESIA based on GTAP database, dealing with 15 world regions and 12 non-energy industry sectors and 7 energy sectors to assess the middle- to long-term global warming policies. This study consists of the following three steps: Firstly, I distribute the carbon emission of power generation sector to the consumer and the generator according to the conversion efficiency, i.e., the generator is responsible for (1.0 − efficiency)*(total carbon emission) and the consumer is for the rest. Secondly, based on the above carbon emission allocation, the carbon emission of the certain industry is embodied in the products. Thus, indirect carbon trading embodied in the commodities can be calculated. Finally, THERESIA simulations generate and compare the outcomes of regional/sectoral participation where (1) only iron and steel industry, chemical industry and power generation industry participate, (2) only ANNEX-I regions in Kyoto protocol participate in the warming coalition, and (3) there are other various participation scenarios. The simulation results suggest that (1) this method clearly shows the indirect carbon emission embodied in the production structure reflecting the difference in the energy supply structure, (2) the carbon emission accounting method influences the international industry structure and GDP losses under the global carbon emission policies, and (3) when carbon emission is embodied in the products, indirect “carbon export” often exceeds the “carbon import” embodied in the commodities in the OECD regions.

Increase in carbon prices: analysis of energy-economy modeling

This study examines the mechanisms of social cost of carbon (SCC) and marginal abatement cost (MAC) in climate change modeling. To examine these mechanisms, we observed the shifts in the marginal benefit (MB) and marginal cost (MC) curves of carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement when parameter values are changed. In the observation, we used the DICE model proposed by Nordhaus (A question of balance: weighing the options on global warming policies. Yale University Press, New Haven, 2008) changing 24 parameters for the observation. In consequent, firstly, we have found that discount rate is not only one of the parameters which significantly raise the carbon price, that is, other parameters may have significant impact too. Secondly, we have found that there are two patterns in the rise of the SCC, and three patterns in the rise of the MAC. Thirdly, we have found that the difference between the rise of the SCC and MAC is primarily caused by the horizontal MB curve in CO2 emissions reduction; an upward shift of MC curve raises MAC but never raises the SCC. Thus, the choice of the SCC or MAC may make the change of carbon price different, affecting global warming policy.

An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming Prevention Policy Considering the Sink Effect on Korean Economy

This paper aimed at constructing a Eco-Land computable general equilibriummodel to analyze the impact of global warming prevention policies on Korean economy. The sink effect means that trees and plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Three policies, ⅰ) the carbon tax imposition only, ⅱ) the carbon tax imposition and tax revenue to be used only for forestation that results in enhancing the sink effect, ⅲ) the carbon tax imposition with enhancement of the sink effect through the land development policy, were examined. The impact of three policies were evaluated on the basis of economic efficiency and public welfare. The result shows that the carbon tax imposition and tax revenue to be used only for forestation that results in enhancing the sink effect, is best alternative in terms of both indexes.

Moral Collapse in a Warming World

In his definitive book A Perfect Moral Storm, ethicist Stephen Gardiner argues that the way forward in a climate-changed world is so difficult in part because we “do not yet have a good understanding of many of the ethical issues at stake in global-warming policy.” We remain confused about such vital questions as who should take responsibility for the current condition, how to preserve equity between generations, and how best to think about our responsibility toward nonhuman animals. The resistance of governments to taking action, attempts by various players to throw sand in the eyes of the public, and specious arguments used to justify an unwillingness to do what is necessary all add to our moral bafflement.

An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming Prevention Policy Considering the Sink Effect on Korean Economy

An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming Prevention Policy Considering the Sink Effect on Korean Economy

The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed.

Robust Simulation of Global Warming Policies Using the DICE Model

Integrated assessment models that combine geophysics and economics features are often used to evaluate and compare global warming policies. Because there are typically profound uncertainties in these models, a simulation approach is often used. This approach requires the distribution of the uncertain parameters clearly specified. However, this is typically impossible because there is often a significant amount of ambiguity (e.g., estimation error) in specifying the distribution. In this paper, we adopt the widely used multivariate normal distribution to model the uncertain parameters. However, we assume that the mean vector and covariance matrix of the distribution are within some ambiguity sets. We then show how to find the worst-case performance of a given policy for all distributions constrained by the ambiguity sets. This worst-case performance provides a robust evaluation of the policy. We test our algorithm on a famous integrated model of climate change, known as the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE model). We find that the DICE model is sensitive to the means and covariance of the parameters. Furthermore, we find that, based on the DICE model, moderately tight environmental policies robustly outperform the no controls policy and the famous aggressive policies proposed by Stern and Gore.This paper was accepted by Dimitris Bertsimas, optimization.

America's Science Problem

The author discusses the history of science in the U.S., focusing on the factors that he claims led to politicians being anti-science in the 2012 elections. The economic aspects of scientific innovations, economic growth in the U.S. since World War II, and anti--intellectualism are discussed, as well as a questionnaire for political candidates prepared in 2012 on science topics. Topics such as global warming, evolution, and government policies on human reproduction are discussed, and the differences between Democratic candidates such as U.S. President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are described. Politicians such as John A. Boehner, Michelle Bachmann, and Jon Huntsman are also mentioned. INSET: IN BRIEF.

WHAT ELUDES INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE? THE ECONOMICS OF GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS

This paper provides an analysis of global warming policy as the provision of a global public good. Using a regional model composed of thirteen world regions, the paper shows how disparate incentives among the regions hinder a shift from a Business As Usual (BAU) policy to a Globally Optimal Policy (GOP). In the BAU scenario, there will be large variations in impacts from warming across the regions, meaning some countries have little incentive to participate in collective agreements. Under the GOP scenario, negative impacts from global warming will be significantly reduced in some regions resulting in strong incentives for these regions to press for action. The paper finds that an optimal regulation could save Europe, India, and Africa hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the end of this century, but would cause additional costs to China, Russia, Canada and the USA. Under the optimal regulatory framework, higher levels of abatement are required for developing countries, worsening the existing climate equity problem.

The upside hedge value of California's global warming policy given uncertain future oil prices

The economic modeling that policymakers typically rely on—and all the economic modeling of AB 32 (California's Global Warming Solutions Act)—assumes smooth future price paths, ignoring the reality of significant price volatility of fuels derived from crude oil. To add some insight into the value of reduced exposure to gasoline and diesel price spikes as a result of climate policies like AB 32, we define the benefit of upside hedge value: the extra avoided expenditures on gasoline and diesel fuel that accrue when their prices spike. We develop two historically-grounded price spike scenarios: a moderate spike of 25% and a large spike of 50%. After accounting for short-term price elasticity of demand effects, we estimate the upside hedge value to be between $2.4 billion and $5.2 billion (all 2007 dollars) for the moderate and large hypothetical shock scenarios, respectively.

Global warming gridlock: creating more effective strategies for protecting the planet

Global warming is one of today's greatest challenges. The science of climate change leaves no doubt that policies to cut emissions are overdue. Yet, after twenty years of international talks and treaties, the world is now in gridlock about how best to do this. David G. Victor argues that such gridlock has arisen because international talks have drifted away from the reality of what countries are willing and able to implement at home. Most of the lessons that policy makers have drawn from the history of other international environmental problems won't actually work on the problem of global warming. Victor argues that a radical rethinking of global warming policy is required and shows how to make international law on global warming more effective. This book provides a roadmap to a lower carbon future based on encouraging bottom-up initiatives at national, regional and global levels, leveraging national self-interest rather than wishful thinking.

The Spectator Debate

The Spectator Debate

Technological change and timing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

In 2007 Nicholas Stern’s Review (in Science 317:201–202, 2007) estimated that global GDP would shrink by 5–20% due to climate change which brought forth calls to reduce emissions by 30–70% in the next 20 years. Stern’s results were contested by Weitzman (in J Econ Lit XLV(3):703–724, 2007) who argued for more modest reductions in the near term, and Nordhaus (in Science 317:201–202, 2007) who questioned the low discount rate and coefficient of relative risk aversion employed in the Stern Review, which caused him to argue that ‘the central question about global-warming policy—how much how, how fast, and how costly—remain open.’ We present a simulation model developed by Fare et al. (in Time substitution with application to data envelopment analysis, 2009) on intertemporal resource allocation that allows us to shine some light on these questions. The empirical specification here constrains the amount of undesirable output a country can produce over a given period by choosing the magnitude and timing of those reductions. We examine the production technology of 28 OECD countries over 1992–2006, in which countries produce real GDP and CO2 using capital and labor and simulate the magnitude and timing necessary to be in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. This tells us ‘how fast’ and ‘how much’. Comparison of observed GDP and simulated GDP with the emissions constraints tells us ‘how costly’. We find these costs to be relatively low if countries are allowed reallocate production decision across time, and that emissions should be cut gradually at the beginning of the period, with larger cuts starting in 2000.