Global Terrorism Research Articles

Terror threat and investor sentiment: International evidence

Terrorism remains a persistent threat to global peace and stability, but its impact extends beyond the realm of security. We examine the impact of terrorism on the important capital market transaction of initial public offerings (IPOs). Consistent with the notion that terrorism dampens investor sentiment, we reveal robust evidence that first-day returns are lower in countries with higher Global Terrorism Index scores. Examining this issue at an international scale allows us to advance the literature in two important ways. First, we provide direct evidence that greater terror threat is associated with lower investor sentiment. Second, we determine that strong democratic principles, high-quality governance institutions, and transparent accounting disclosures moderate the negative impact of terror threat on investor sentiment and IPO returns.

Globalization and Terrorism in Nigeria: A Retrospective Reflection

Nigerian sovereignty for more than a decade was challenged by the onslaught of Sunni Jihadism in the North-East. The Jihadist insurgency took a more frightening dimension with the emergence of Islamic State of West Africa Province, ISWAP in alliance with Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda Awati Wal-Jihad, otherwise known as Boko Haram in bid to Islamize a secular nation-state. This paper in retrospective sense examined the frightening reality and, argued that this absurdity is facilitated by global spread of Islamic extremism and terrorism. The discourse adopted qualitative research design to explore the relevance of secondary and non-participant observational sources of data collection and content-analyzed issues and enfolding events. The discourse revealed that well-coordinated suicide bombings of Louis Edet House, Nigeria Police Headquarters on June 16, 2011 and United Nations building on August 26, 2011 at Abuja, the Federal Capital, were visible manifestations of global terrorist links of Boko Haram with Al-Qaeda. And, subsequent pledge of allegiance to ISIL in March 2015 watershed the varicosity of global terrorism in Africa most populous country. In credence to these findings, the discourse suggested holistic review of national security strategy and operational

Использование различных вычислительных подходов к моделированию показателя санитарных потерь при террористических актах в мире на период до 2030 г.

Summary. The aim of the study is to investigate and to justify the application of various computational approaches to forecasting the value of probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts in the world for the period up to 2030. Materials and research methods. Materials of the study were archival data of the generalized database (GTD, Global Terrorism Database), containing information on more than 200 thousand cases of terrorist activities registered in 1970-2020. The methods and ways of committing terrorist attacks, as well as the objects they were aimed at were analyzed. The forecast model of the probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts was built for the period from 2021 to 2030 inclusive. The data set was analyzed by various operators of MS Excel spreadsheet aggregator using the functions “FORECAST SHEET”, “FORECAST”, “TREND”, “GROWTH”, “LINEST” and “LOGEST “. Results of the study and their analysis. It is observed that the number of probable sanitary losses due to terrorist attacks in the world may increase by 35.28% by 2030. The methods of committing terrorist acts most significant in the long term were identified. These are the use of explosives in the form of industrial and improvised explosive devices, as well as firearms, especially against the military and police. It is concluded: the obtained results of the study should be used to correct the established structure of the incoming flow of sanitary losses and to determine the optimal composition of multidepartmental medical forces and means necessary to eliminate medical and sanitary consequences of terrorist acts.

세계 테러리즘 지수로 본 테러 범죄와 대테러 경찰 활동에 관한 연구

The landscape of terrorism has evolved from a national and international focus in the past to a prevalent transnational nature today. Islamic State-led attacks caused numerous casualties. Home-grown terrorism and terrorism with unclear motives also have risen. In this study, based on the Global Terrorism Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), I examined terrorist incidents targeting Western countries among the 66,000 recorded cases spanning from 2007 to 2022 to see their trends, motivations, and changes. Additionally, I conducted a comparative assessment of counter-terrorism policies and strategies in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. As a result, I suggest the following approaches the effectiveness of counter-terrorism policing: 1. Shifting the paradigm towards a proactive, preventive approach to terrorist crimes. 2. Promoting a shift in perspective to view terrorism as a disaster response issue, thereby expanding the authority and role of law enforcement agencies. 3. Establishing a legal framework underpinning counter-terrorism policing efforts. 4. Enhancing coordination with counter-terrorism organizations and related agencies.

Terrorist attacks against women's healthcare facilities 1970-2018.

Targeted acts of violence against women's healthcare facilities and healthcare providers are a continued threat to the safety and well-being of those seeking reproductive care as well as those who provide it around the world. This study aims to review and analyze terrorist attacks against facilities and providers who offer women's healthcare services globally. A thorough analysis of data coming from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was performed. This database is run by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Two hundred and seventy-one incidents registered in the GTD between 1970 and 2018 were found to be terrorist attacks on women's healthcare facilities, the majority of which occurred in the United States. The method of attack or weapons used varied greatly. While the majority of these attacks targeted facilities, a number of attacks focused on individuals, namely, healthcare providers. Facilities and providers associated with women's healthcare services, particularly reproductive health, remain at risk of terror attack. Although carried out by a variety of groups and with diverse methods, these attacks appear most prevalent, or most reported, in Western society and threaten essential reproductive healthcare.

Location, Location, Location: Disentangling Drivers of Terrorist Credit-Taking

ABSTRACT Most academic definitions of terrorism emphasize the communicative function of terrorism. The aim of terrorist violence is widely held to be to gain publication for a political or religious cause. Despite this emphasis on communication, terrorists rarely seek attention by claiming responsibility for attacks. According to the Global Terrorism Database, claims of responsibility are only issued for approximately every sixth attack. This raises the question: Why do terrorists abstain from the easy “win” of claiming their attacks? Previous research has theorized that factors like state sponsorship, principal-agent problems, casualty levels, and inter-group competition are important factors in explaining variation in terrorist credit-taking propensities. In this paper, we diverge from the tried and trusted deductive approach and instead utilize an inductive approach. We apply machine learning techniques using Random Forests to predict claims of responsibility. Our initial results indicate that geographical factors, like country of attack, are the strongest predictors of claims—something largely overlooked by existing research. In our analysis, the predictive power of geographical factors thus exceeds that of explanations from the literature based on characteristics of the target of the attack, e.g. number of fatalities and wounded.

Deradicalization Concept of Islamic Extremists to Maintain Law and Order of West Java Area

This study aims to develop a deradicalization concept for Islamic extremists within the jurisdiction of the West Java Regional Police (Polda Jabar). The understanding of this concept is developed using qualitative descriptive methods and research and development (RND) designs. The research was prompted by data from the Global Terrorism Index in 2020, which ranked Indonesia fourth in the Asia Pacific region for its high terrorism index. This ranking is consistent with the factual conditions in Indonesia, where acts of terrorism and radicalism carried out by groups affiliated with Islam are prevalent. In the West Java Regional Police area, acts of radicalism and extremism affiliated with Islam are primarily concentrated along the south coast in places such as Garut, Tasikmalaya, and Sukabumi. Recently, a declaration of the Islamic State of Indonesia was discovered in the Garut region of West Java. The investigation conducted by the Garut Resort Police revealed significant community support for this declaration. If left unaddressed, this support poses a serious threat to the security and public order within the jurisdiction of the West Java Regional Police. Therefore, the focus of this research is to develop a deradicalization pattern for extremists associated with Islamic groups. The ultimate goal is to ensure security and public order within the jurisdiction of the West Java Regional Police. By implementing effective deradicalization measures, it is hoped that the threat posed by extremist elements can be mitigated, contributing to a safer and more stable region.
 Keywords: deradicalization, Islamic extremists, security, West Java

BNPT's Strategy In Anticipating Terrorism Crimes Through Cross-Sectoral Cooperation Synergy In Indonesia

The development of global terrorist crimes has shown a significant increase in mode, quantity and quality, with Indonesia becoming one of the targets of terrorism. It was revealed that the local militant network had links to international networks. Terrorist activities utilize ideology and religion as tools to influence society and achieve their goals. Therefore, the Indonesian government faces the phenomenon of terrorism wisely, analyzing various aspects of national life to fight terrorism together with the international community. Terrorism aims to create fear and uncertainty, create panic, disrupt social stability and disrupt the relationship between society and government. Terrorism, both on an international and local scale, can hamper efforts to create a conducive investment climate within the country. Serious challenges arise from the failure of several key terrorist figures to be caught and the emergence of new forms of terrorist acts. Factors such as individual and group interests, social inequality, religious beliefs, injustice in law enforcement, and socio-cultural changes influence the development of terrorism. Countering terrorism requires a synergistic cross-sectoral cooperation strategy to create domestic security stability. Even though efforts have been made to deal with terrorism, public awareness of the dangers of terrorism is still weak. Effective strategies in anticipating terrorism include steps that support aggressive and diversified strategies, including increasing community resilience, revising laws, as well as deradicalization and communal rehabilitation programs. In a global context, terrorism has become a serious focus for countries around the world and is a UN program in its efforts to prevent and overcome it. The history of terrorism in Indonesia records an increase in the number and impact of acts of terrorism, including incidents such as the Bali Bombing, the JW Marriott hotel explosion, and the attack in front of the Australian Embassy Building. Joint efforts to confront and prevent terrorism in Indonesia must take into account regional characteristics, potential and influencing aspects, without sacrificing national interests and ethnic and religious sensitivities.

Armed to Kill: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Examining the Links between Firearms Availability, Gun Control, and Terrorism Using the Global Terrorism Database and the Small Arms Survey

ABSTRACT According to the Global Terrorism Database, the use of firearms in terrorist attacks has been on the rise, and firearms-based attacks are the most lethal. In the aftermath of mass-casualty attacks perpetrated with firearms, policymakers across the world advocate tightened gun control to restrict terrorists’ access to both licit and illicit guns. However, academic research on the linkages between firearms availability, gun control legislation, and terrorism is scarce. This study fills this research gap by conducting a systematic cross-sectional analysis of the linkage between gun control, licit and illicit stocks of firearms, and terrorist attacks in 2015–2019, based on a novel dataset incorporating the Global Terrorism Database and the Small Arms Survey. Our estimation using OLS regression shows a strong relationship between the availability of firearms and the incidence of gun-based terrorism, especially for lone wolf attacks. Furthermore, terrorists in stable, democratic countries are comparatively more likely to select firearms as their weapon of choice. Conversely, strict gun control only slightly alleviates the overall risk of terrorism in stable countries but does not impact weapon selection. In unstable countries in the grip of intrastate conflict, gun control significantly reduces lone wolf-style attacks, while organized multi-perpetrator attacks are not deterred.

Sahel terrorist crisis and development priorities: case of financial allocations for the control of non-communicable diseases in Burkina Faso.

In Africa, nearly 46% of all mortality will be attributed to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 2030. While the cost of inaction far exceeds the cost of action against NCDs, global funding for the prevention and control of NCDs is minimal. The objective of this was to explore the Ministry of Health budget allocations for NCDs from 2010 to 2020 as well as the effect of the terrorism crisis on these allocations. The methodology was based on the budget tracking tool developed by the Scaling Up Nutrition Movement. Twenty-nine budget lines related to the prevention and/or control of NCDs have been identified. About 29.9 million USD were allocated to the fight against NCDs with an absorption rate of more than 98%.There is an upward trend of allocated budget characterized by an exponential increase from the development of the national integrated strategic plan for the fight against NCDs (2016-2020). In 2017, an increase of 184% compared to 2016 was observed. However, the efforts were challenged by the emergence of the terrorist threat which triggered in January 2016, leading to a drastic reduction in allocations for NCDs in favor likely of defense and security priorities as well as addressing the needs of internally displaced persons. A trend analysis suggests that the NCDs budget significantly decrease as the country global terrorist index increase. Further analysis is needed to better understand the implication on NCD incidence, and identify advocacy opportunities for mitigating the negative impact of the terrorist treat on NCDs and other development issues.

Security Aspects of Improvised Explosive Devices. The Ukrainian Case Study

Though Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are commonly attributed to attacks carried out by terrorists in the Middle East, IEDs were also used in the Ukrainian conflict and extremely limited research touches upon the issue. There is a hypothesis that IED events were not mainly focused on killing but rather on striking terror and sowing chaos among the local populace to persuade it to withdraw its support for the Ukrainian government. This article presents an analysis of IEDs as a unique weapon, the possible intensions behind their occurrence in Ukraine at a particular point in time, and the methods of identifying IED use in Ukraine based on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and the authors' database (TAD). Both the imprecision and uncertainty relative to GTD’s classification were discussed, as it served only as the starting point for data evaluation, yielding informative results, although containing little information related to the IEDs directly.

SECURING THE WORLD LOCALLY: UNVEILING CHINA'S COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY

Terrorism has become a critical worldwide security concern in the aftermath of the 9/11 tragedy, provoking varying reactions from various states. This research focuses on the distinguishing features of China's counterterrorism policy. The study methodically unravels China's multifaceted perspective on terrorism through interpretative research supported by qualitative analysis. The glocalization lens sheds light on the dynamic interaction of China's local context within the larger global discourse. Within this context, terrorism within China's borders is recast as separatist, a notion intrinsically tied to China's entire understanding of the threat. China effectively turns global terrorist worries into a rationale for its region-focused counterterrorism efforts, which are localized in Xinjiang and Tibet. Furthermore, China's technique departs from Western paradigms by adding socioeconomic factors as crucial components, resulting in a complex and distinctively Chinese approach. In addition, China deliberately utilizes its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects to spread its counterterrorism narrative worldwide while simultaneously legitimizing its internal measures. The paper thoroughly explains China's counterterrorism policy through this analysis to highlight the roots of its unique interpretation, localized remedies, socioeconomic integration, and global outreach strategies.

GTD를 활용한 군(軍) 대상 테러 발생 현황 및 유형 분석 연구

At a time of heightened terrorism threats from terrorism organizations and increasingly realistic threats such as North Korea's drone incursions, few studies have focused on the military, despite the fact that it is one of the biggest targets of terrorism. Therefore, this study utilized the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to conduct an in-depth analysis of terrorism incidents and military-related terrorism damage data over the past 50 years to face the reality and risk of terrorism against military facilities and to propose alternatives.
 The analysis revealed that the number of military victims and the percentage of victims are increasing, the number of deaths per incident is higher in military-related terrorism incidents than in general terrorism incidents, and the type of attack in military-related terrorism incidents is becoming more complex, while the type of attack in general terrorism incidents is becoming more monolithic with explosions. As a result of this analysis, it is necessary to adjust the priority of counter-terrorism alternatives according to the proportion of targeted facilities, and establish defense measures for each targeted facility. We hope that this study will serve as a basis for the military's future terrorism prevention measures and provide a foundation for further research.

Intelligence for human security: measuring outcomes quantitatively

ABSTRACT This article examines whether increased intelligence capacity improves global security, a key assumption in intelligence theory. Using the partial least squares structural equation modelling method, the research statistically analyzes data from the U.S. International Intelligence Behaviour dataset and Global Terrorism Database. Grounded in intelligence studies and international relations theory, the study integrates a constructivist human security framework. Surprisingly, the results show a significant correlation between increased intelligence capacity and the degree of terrorism, suggesting intelligence may undermine rather than enhance human security. This finding challenges traditional assumptions, though it must be viewed cautiously due to potential endogeneity.

The peculiarities of codifying special conditions for exemption from criminal liability for the threat of committing a terrorist act

Considering the events currently taking place in Ukraine, such as the annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol by the Russian Federation, as well as the full-scale invasion initiated by the aggressor state eight years into the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is worth noting that these circumstances have led to an increase in terrorism incidents in Ukraine.According to a comprehensive study by the University of Maryland, Institute for Economics and Peace: Global Terrorism Index, Ukraine ranks 17th in terms of terrorism levels among 160 countries surveyed. Therefore, in the current reality, research on criminal offenses, particularly terrorist acts, is highly relevant. The codification of criminal liability for such a criminal offense has become particularly important today, as this crime undermines both public security and the security of the state as a whole.This article examines the peculiarities of codifying special conditions for exemption from criminal liability for the threat of committing a terrorist act. The article analyzes the legal aspects of this issue, taking into account the problems that may arise in the application of the provision that allows for exemption from liability for the commission of a terrorist act.The author focuses on the presentation of Part 6 of Article 258 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine in its current version, which pertains to the exemption of a person from criminal liability for the threat of committing a terrorist act.In exploring the conditions for exemption from liability for the threat of committing a terrorist act, as set out in Part 6 of Article 258 of the Criminal Code, attention is drawn to the presence of circumstances a terrorist act, as set out in Part 6 of Article 258 of the Criminal Code, attention is drawn to the presence of circumstances that must be taken into account when applying this provision.The article provides a comparative analysis of the provisions of Part 6 of Article 258 of the Criminal Code, which provides for exemption from criminal liability for the threat of committing a terrorist act, and Article 45 of the Criminal Code, which provides for exemption from criminal liability based on effective repentance. It also identifies the differences in the content of these provisions.

Reviewing terrorism threat on China after the cold war

ABSTRACT Over the past three decades, terrorism has directly threatened China's national security and has played a key role in its foreign policy. The nature of terrorism in China is changing, as is the Chinese government's response to the threat. Despite the issue's importance, there is still little knowledge about the changing face of terrorism in China. Thus, this study fills the gap in the literature on this subject by reviewing the terrorism threat against China after the Cold War from 1989 through 2020, based on the global terrorism database. The study's main findings reveal that China is not a significant target of terrorism when compared to other powers. Terrorism in China is domestic and concentrated in four specific districts, chiefly caused by the Uyghurs Uprising. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the BRI did not cause a dramatic increase in terrorist attacks against Chinese citizens outside China.

Sufism A Peace-building and Resilient Strategy to Curb Violent Extremism in Pakistan

This paper aims to emphasize the need to develop a counter-narrative strategy by the state of Pakistan in order to dismantle and deconstruct Taliban’s proliferating ideology that is currently challenging the writ of the state. The mindset and ideology of Taliban legitimize the use of violence or cause terror by harming or endangering people’s life and security and promote legal impunity against them. The phenomenon of global terrorism was surfaced after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US and Pakistan had to confront the long-term consequences of its unconditional support as a frontline ally of US to fight the global war against terrorism. On the other hand, the ideological contours of Taliban focus on two key agendas that are abhorrence towards the anti-Islamic and imperialist states and to entice and recruit new supporters to the cause. On the other hand, the state and society are failed to construct an effective counter-narrative. The state’s approach to tackle the issue by using hard power and military strength led towards the birth, growth and proliferation of terrorist outfits. However, the use of traditional kinetic approach to curb violent religious extremism has been proved unsuccessful. Resultantly, the US after spending several billion dollars and tons of state of the art military weapons, had to withdraw its forces for the second time by terminating the longest physical and military mission in Afghanistan after two decades without achieving success. The paper tries to explore that Sufi approach instead of traditional hard military power can prevent and counter violent religious extremism (P/CVRE) in Pakistan and can bring peace and stability.

Crude Oil Production, Corruption and Upstream Oil Revenue in Nigeria: General Outlook, Conditions and Methodology

The study examined general outlook and conditions of crude oil production, corruption risk and upstream oil revenue in Nigeria. The study focused mainly on the revenue generated from crude oil production and oil export with the purpose of assessing oil exploration and corruption with the objective of investigating Nigeria’s oil export and its contribution to the growth of revenue generation and finding out if the level of corruption affects the upstream revenue generation in Nigeria. it is discovered that the following variables are germane in the empirical studies reviewed and econometric models are conceptualized that proven oil reserve, OPEC quotas, global oil demand, global oil supply, geopolitical risk index, disaster risk index, global terrorism index, global oil price, exchange rate variation, upstream oil theft, number of pipeline vandalism, oil bunkering, tax evasion and corruption perceptions index are relevant and possible determinants of downstream oil revenue in Nigeria. An empirical study to investigate the relationship and causal effect of the above-mentioned factors are recommended for further study with a view to making reliable policy statements on revenue sustainability and highlighting and reducing the counterproductive effects of corruption risks in the exploration and production of crude oil in Nigeria.

Nature of Reintegration Programmes for Returnee Terrorist Fighters in Mombasa County, Kenya

Terrorism is a global threat to peace, security, and prosperity. It also puts conflict resolution strategies to the test. The rise of global terrorism has led to the emergence of numerous extremist groups, which have attracted individuals from various regions, including Mombasa, Kenya. As these individuals return from engaging in terrorist activities, effective reintegration programs play a crucial role in countering further radicalization and promoting societal stability. The study sought to explore the nature of non-custodial reintegration programmes on returnee terrorist fighters in Mombasa. Because of the increasing acceptance and adoption of non-custodial reintegration strategies for returnee terrorist fighters in several countries, there is a growing recognition of the importance of both governmental and non-governmental actors contributing to the development and implementation of the programs. Kenya is no stranger to returning terrorist fighters and the threat they pose to peace and security. The research methodology used for this study combined qualitative and quantitative methods. A sample size of 400 respondents was needed for investigation from the target population of Mombasa County. The County was shown to have the highest rates of violent extremism and recidivism in Kenya. Primary data was collected using questionnaires. Interviews and focus groups discussion with key informants, gave participants insight into the viewpoints and experiences of various participants in the reintegration process. A desk examination of the literature was used to gather secondary data for the investigation. The study findings revealed that Kenya is combining classic counter-terrorist measures such as arrests, detentions, and movement restrictions with policies and programs for prevention, intervention, and reintegration. Factors such as psychological trauma, socioeconomic reintegration, and community acceptance are identified as critical elements that influence the effectiveness of these programs. Religious leaders, community organizations, and government agencies facilitate successful reintegration processes. The study recommends non-custodial reintegration for returnee terrorist fighters to be the best strategy that would provide a perfect opportunity for enhancing community resilience in fighting radicalization leading to terrorism in Kenya.

Countering radical terrorist ideology through psywar: lessons from the Malayan emergency

ABSTRACT Soon after the events of 9–11, it was recognised that the U.S. and the West had to wage effective information warfare if they were to succeed in countering or containing global terrorism as a result of radical Islamism. The West, however, has failed in this endeavour, epitomised by the contemporary onslaught from the Islamic State’s ideology resulting in the continuation of the global terrorist threat. Yet, lessons drawn from the case study of British success in the Malayan Emergency experience, with the necessary qualifications, are useful in waging information war today against contemporary radical Islamist terrorism. The key lessons for contemporary counter-terrorism include: the need for psywar operations to be accompanied by legal and security measures in consultation with local Muslim communities to contain the enablers of the adversary’s psywar apparatus, establishing better governance over religious schools, enabling local Muslims to lead psywar operations, the use former terrorists in counter-radicalisation, the promotion of inclusion, addressing underlying causes of alienation and paying careful attention to developments in the Middle East.