Abstract
Summary. The aim of the study is to investigate and to justify the application of various computational approaches to forecasting the value of probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts in the world for the period up to 2030. Materials and research methods. Materials of the study were archival data of the generalized database (GTD, Global Terrorism Database), containing information on more than 200 thousand cases of terrorist activities registered in 1970-2020. The methods and ways of committing terrorist attacks, as well as the objects they were aimed at were analyzed. The forecast model of the probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts was built for the period from 2021 to 2030 inclusive. The data set was analyzed by various operators of MS Excel spreadsheet aggregator using the functions “FORECAST SHEET”, “FORECAST”, “TREND”, “GROWTH”, “LINEST” and “LOGEST “. Results of the study and their analysis. It is observed that the number of probable sanitary losses due to terrorist attacks in the world may increase by 35.28% by 2030. The methods of committing terrorist acts most significant in the long term were identified. These are the use of explosives in the form of industrial and improvised explosive devices, as well as firearms, especially against the military and police. It is concluded: the obtained results of the study should be used to correct the established structure of the incoming flow of sanitary losses and to determine the optimal composition of multidepartmental medical forces and means necessary to eliminate medical and sanitary consequences of terrorist acts.
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