Global Temperature Rise Research Articles

Effects of preparticipating hypohydration oncardiac burden in recreational athletes.

The global temperature rise will have extensive consequences on our organ systems, but hypohydration caused by reduced water intake or increased water loss through sweating plays the most relevant role. Many studies have already demonstrated the association between hypohydration and impaired exercise performance, but data related to the cardiac burden of hypohydration are scarce. This study is a sub-investigation of our large, prospective, self-controlled trial on the effects of hypohydration on cardiopulmonary exercise capacity with previously published results. In the current sub-study, we analyzed the impact of hypohydration on cardiac burden in this cohort of fifty healthy, recreational athletes during cardiopulmonary exercise test.Therefore, each participant underwent cardiopulmonary exercise test with a standardized ramp protocol twice, once in hypohydrated state and once in euhydrated state as control, and the cardiac markers Troponin T, NT-pro-BNP and Chromogranin A were measured before and after the exercise test at each state. Mean age was 29.7 years and 34% of probands were female. Hypohydration led to a reduced body water, a significant decrease in oxygen uptake and lower levels of power output. Yet, Troponin T, NT-proBNP, Chromogranin A and lactate levels did not significantly differ between the two conditions.In this study cohort, decreased exercise capacity during hypohydration was more likely due to impaired cardiac output with diminished plasma volume rather than measurable cardiac stress from fluid deprivation. However, whether these data are generalizable to a diseased cohort is left unanswered and should be addressed in future randomized controlled trials.

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought?

In the context of anthropogenic global warming, unprecedented drought is expected to emerge over some regions where drought conditions exceed the variation range of the natural state. However, it is still unclear how the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets proposed by the Paris Agreement will delay or even prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought. To illustrate the benefits of the two warming targets for mitigating drought conditions, this study investigated the time of emergence (TOE) of unprecedented meteorological drought as indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensembles forced by 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). In particular, the pattern of TOE is explored for 4 pseudo warming scenarios under which global mean surface temperature (GMST) increases by 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. The results suggested that: (1) Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought is anticipated to emerge over southern Africa, Arabian Peninsula, central Asia, Mongolia, southwestern South America, and western and eastern Australia. (2) Under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought will expand to western North America, the Amazon, and the Mediterranean. (3) The comparisons with the exposure under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios show that the aspirational 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement warming targets can prevent at least 0.6 × 107 km2 of land area, 1.4 × 108 people, and 0.6 × 106 km2 of cropland area from suffering the emergence of unprecedented meteorological drought.

Organic Electronics in Flexible Devices: Engineering Strategy, Synthesis, And Application

As global temperatures rise and fossil fuel reserves dwindle, the urgency to transition to renewable energy sources becomes paramount. Concentrated solar technology (CSP) together with technological advances in solar panels, especially the development of flexible solar cells, Is the key to solving these global challenges. This paper reviews the evolution of solar technology, highlighting the transition from traditional rigid panels to innovative thin-film photovoltaics such as cadmium telluride (CdTe), amorphous silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), organic polymers, and perovskite solar cells. It delves into the engineering innovations that have propelled the field forward, including printing technologies and roll-to-roll processing, and explores the burgeoning applications of flexible solar cells in wearable electronics and building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). The discussion extends to the potential of emerging materials and technologies to enhance efficiency, stability, and environmental sustainability. Through a comprehensive analysis, this paper underscores the pivotal role of flexible solar cells in achieving a renewable energy future, emphasizing the need for continued research and development to overcome current limitations and fully realize their transformative potential.

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

Abstract. The swift and ongoing rise of global temperatures over the past decades led to an increasing number of climate variables showing statistically significant changes compared to their pre-industrial state. Determining when these climate signals emerge from the noise of internal climate variability (i.e., estimating the time of emergence, ToE) is crucial for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. However, robustly disentangling the climate signal from internal variability represents a challenging task. While climate projections are communicated increasingly frequently through global warming levels (GWLs), the ToE is usually still expressed in terms of time horizons. Here, we present a framework to robustly derive global warming levels of emergence (GWLoE) using five single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and apply it to four selected temperature and precipitation indices. We show that the concept of GWLoE is particularly promising to constrain temperature projections and that it proves a viable tool to communicate scientific results. We find that > 85 % of the global population is exposed to emerged signals of nighttime temperatures at a GWL of 1.5 °C, increasing to > 95 % at 2.0 °C. Daily maximum temperature follows a similar yet less pronounced path. Emerged signals for mean and extreme precipitation start appearing at current GWLs and increase steadily with further warming (∼ 10 % population exposed at 2.0 °C). Related probability ratios for the occurrence of extremes indicate a strong increase with widespread saturation of temperature extremes (extremes relative to historical conditions occur every year) reached below 2.5 °C warming particularly in (sub)tropical regions. These results indicate that we are in a critical period for climate action as every fraction of additional warming substantially increases the adverse effects on human wellbeing.

Deep understanding the formation of MnCoOx in-situ grown on foam nickel towards efficient lean methane catalytic oxidation

Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas in the world, with a stronger greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. The efficient elimination of methane in the atmosphere has important engineering significance in slowing down global temperature rise, energy resource utilization, collaborative control of pollutants, and promoting technological innovation. In this work, a general hydrothermal synthesis method was introduced to in-situ construct four different morphologies of MnCoOx (including rod-, spherical-, filamentous- and bulk-shape) on foam nickel (NF). The synthesis of MnCoOx/NF with different morphologies was due to changes in NF pretreatment conditions and precipitants, which affected the nucleation and growth rates of MnCoOx, ultimately resulting in different morphologies. When the four different morphologies of MnCoOx/NF were used as catalysts for lean methane catalytic oxidation, MnCoOx/NF-r exhibited the best excellent catalytic activity, and the T90 occurred at 428 °C in space velocity of 48,000 mL g−1 h−1. Such an outstanding performance was attributed to the unique properties of the MnCoOx/NF-r including the larger surface area and more oxygen vacancies for providing more active sites and a higher oxygen migration rate, which was very beneficial for improving the catalytic oxidation performance of methane.

Tracing footprints for a greener tomorrow; A cross-sectional study to assess the carbon footprint of the urban households of Vijayapura city

Background: The concept of carbon footprint is rooted in measuring the volume of greenhouse gases, predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting from human activities. India has witnessed a significant surge in greenhouse gas emissions due to rapid economic growth and population expansion, making it the world's third-largest CO2 emitter. This upsurge intensifies the natural greenhouse effect, leading to global temperature rise, ocean acidification, and heightened risks to human health. Objectives: To assess the Carbon Footprint generated by urban households of Vijayapura. Material and methods: This study employs a cross-sectional approach targeting urban households residing within the operational area of the urban health center in BLDE(DU), Vijayapura City. The sample, comprising 150 households, was selected via systematic random sampling. Data was collected through household visits and interviews with the family heads using a semi-structured questionnaire. and analyzed utilizing SPSS Software Version 26. Results: The analysis of carbon emissions highlights that primary emissions surpass secondary emissions. Notably, households categorized under the upper socioeconomic class exhibit a statistically significant carbon emission rate of approximately 39.47 tonnes per month. Conclusion: This study's assessment of the carbon footprint emanating from urban households illuminates the pivotal connection between day-to-day choices and the broader ecological context.

Assessing climate change vulnerability of coastal roads

Climate change is a global phenomenon, which affects in several ways different regions all around the world, beyond the rise in global temperature. Among the different climate change issues, the management of transport infrastructures is crucial. Particularly, their vulnerability against changes in climatic conditions should be assessed. Vulnerability indicators are based on the IPCC concept of vulnerability and can be defined as a function of Climate Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. These dimensions need to be addressed during the assessment making and can be modelled as a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) problem. This study proposes an integrated approach of several MCDA methods as a possible tool for ranking the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads in Malta. The application covers six coastal roads in the islands of Malta, classified by three different MCDA methods. The results indicate that the proposed approach can produce a consistent ranking of the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads. The study provides policy and decision-makers with a definition of a coastal road, an inventory of such roads, a list of climate change impacts, and a mathematical model incorporating climate change vulnerability indicators. The model can be used to prioritize investment and plan climate change adaptation strategies for infrastructural works on coastal roads.

Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality: An Epidemiological Perspective.

As global temperatures rise, extreme heat events are projected to become more frequent and intense. Extreme heat causes a wide range of health effects, including an overall increase in morbidity and mortality. It is important to note that while there is sufficient epidemiological evidence for heat-related increases in all-cause mortality, evidence on the association between heat and cause-specific deaths such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (and its more specific causes) is limited, with inconsistent findings. Existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies on heat and CVD mortality have summarized the available evidence. However, the target audience of such reviews is mainly limited to the specific field of environmental epidemiology. This overarching perspective aims to provide health professionals with a comprehensive overview of recent epidemiological evidence of how extreme heat is associated with CVD mortality. The rationale behind this broad perspective is that a better understanding of the effect of extreme heat on CVD mortality will help CVD health professionals optimize their plans to adapt to the changes brought about by climate change and heat events. To policymakers, this perspective would help formulate targeted mitigation, strengthen early warning systems, and develop better adaptation strategies. Despite the heterogeneity in evidence worldwide, due in part to different climatic conditions and population dynamics, there is a clear link between heat and CVD mortality. The risk has often been found to be higher in vulnerable subgroups, including older people, people with preexisting conditions, and the socioeconomically deprived. This perspective also highlights the lack of evidence from low- and middle-income countries and focuses on cause-specific CVD deaths. In addition, the perspective highlights the temporal changes in heat-related CVD deaths as well as the interactive effect of heat with other environmental factors and the potential biological pathways. Importantly, these various aspects of epidemiological studies have never been fully investigated and, therefore, the true extent of the impact of heat on CVD deaths remains largely unknown. Furthermore, this perspective also highlights the research gaps in epidemiological studies and the potential solutions to generate more robust evidence on the future consequences of heat on CVD deaths.

Futuristic opportunities for pretreatment processes in biofuel production from microalgae

AbstractMicroalgal biofuel is a promising solution to replace fossil fuel as a renewable and environmental‐friendly energy source, thereby contributing to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular SDG‐7, or Affordable and Clean Energy. Unlike energy crops (like oil palm and sugar cane), microalgae benefit from faster growth rate, higher lipid content, smaller land area required, ability to flourish using waste or brackish water, and posing zero competition with food crops. Microalgae‐derived biofuels (like biodiesel, bioethanol, biomethane, and biohydrogen) are sustainable energy sources that can be produced using well‐developed techniques (e.g., transesterification, fermentation, anaerobic digestion, and Fisher–Tropsch process). To prevent dire climate conditions resulting from the global temperature rise of 1.5°C and resolve worldwide energy security issue, our generation will need to establish and implement renewables on a global scale. To improve the industrial production of microalgal biofuel, the efficiencies of biomass and metabolite production to post‐cultivation biofuel synthesis processes must be enhanced. For the cultivation step, there exist three key techniques that can directly change the traits, structure, and behavior of microalgal cells, and induce them to accumulate targeted metabolites rapidly and in large amounts. These techniques are genetic engineering, chemical modulation, and nanomaterial approach. Genetic engineering commonly alters the chloroplast DNA of microalgae to overexpress or down‐regulate key genes in various metabolic pathways so that the cells accumulate more lipids. Chemicals can also be used to modulate microalgal growth and lipid accumulation by inducing oxidative stress or prevent conversion of lipid molecules. Nanomaterials and nanoparticles can also enhance microalgal lipid production by microenvironmental stress induction, vitamin supplementation, and light backscattering. Therefore, in this review, the recent progress as well as the pros and cons of genetic engineering, chemical modulation, and nanomaterial approach in achieving greater biofuel production from microalgae are comprehensively examined.

Wildfires and social media discourse: exploring mental health and emotional wellbeing through Twitter.

The rise in global temperatures due to climate change has escalated the frequency and intensity of wildfires worldwide. Beyond their direct impact on physical health, these wildfires can significantly impact mental health. Conventional mental health studies predominantly rely on surveys, often constrained by limited sample sizes, high costs, and time constraints. As a result, there is an increasing interest in accessing social media data to study the effects of wildfires on mental health. In this study, we focused on Twitter users affected by the California Tubbs Fire in 2017 to extract data signals related to emotional well-being and mental health. Our analysis aimed to investigate tweets posted during the Tubbs Fire disaster to gain deeper insights into their impact on individuals. Data were collected from October 8 to October 31, 2017, encompassing the peak activity period. Various analytical methods were employed to explore word usage, sentiment, temporal patterns of word occurrence, and emerging topics associated with the unfolding crisis. The findings show increased user engagement on wildfire-related Tweets, particularly during nighttime and early morning, especially at the onset of wildfire incidents. Subsequent exploration of emotional categories using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) revealed a substantial presence of negative emotions at 43.0%, juxtaposed with simultaneous positivity in 23.1% of tweets. This dual emotional expression suggests a nuanced and complex landscape, unveiling concerns and community support within conversations. Stress concerns were notably expressed in 36.3% of the tweets. The main discussion topics were air quality, emotional exhaustion, and criticism of the president's response to the wildfire emergency. Social media data, particularly the data collected from Twitter during wildfires, provides an opportunity to evaluate the psychological impact on affected communities immediately. This data can be used by public health authorities to launch targeted media campaigns in areas and hours where users are more active. Such campaigns can raise awareness about mental health during disasters and connect individuals with relevant resources. The effectiveness of these campaigns can be enhanced by tailoring outreach efforts based on prevalent issues highlighted by users. This ensures that individuals receive prompt support and mitigates the psychological impacts of wildfire disasters.

Hydroclimatic anomalies detected by a sub-decadal diatom oxygen isotope record of the last 220 years from Lake Khamra, Siberia

Abstract. Northern latitudes have been significantly impacted by recent climate warming, which has increased the probability of experiencing extreme weather events. To comprehensively understand hydroclimate change and reconstruct hydroclimatic anomalies such as drought periods, appropriate proxy records reaching further back in time beyond meteorological measurements are needed. Here we present a 220-year (2015–1790 CE), continuous, stable oxygen isotope record of diatoms (δ18Odiatom) from Lake Khamra (59.99° N, 112.98° E) in eastern Siberia, an area highly sensitive to climate change and for which there is a demand for palaeohydrological data. This high-resolution proxy record was obtained from a 210Pb–137Cs-dated sediment short core and analysed to reconstruct hydroclimate variability at a sub-decadal scale. The interpretation of the δ18Odiatom record is supported by meteorological data, modern isotope hydrology and geochemical analyses of the same sediment, which is indicative of the conditions in the lake and catchment. A comparison with meteorological data going back to 1930 CE revealed that the δ18Odiatom record of Lake Khamra is primarily influenced by regional precipitation changes rather than the air temperature. We identified winter precipitation, which enters the lake as isotopically depleted snowmelt water, as the key process impacting the diatom isotope variability. We related the overall depletion of δ18Odiatom in recent decades to an observed increase in winter precipitation in the area, likely associated with the global air temperature rise, Arctic sea ice retreat and increased moisture transport inland. Available palaeoclimate proxy records, including a fire reconstruction for the same lake, support the idea that the new record is a valuable hydroclimate proxy that is indicative of precipitation deficits and excludes solar insolation and air temperature as primary driving forces, even before the first meteorological recordings. We propose two possible hydroclimatic anomalies that were detected in the Lake Khamra δ18Odiatom record: one at the beginning of the 19th century and a second prominent event in the 1950s. Both are interpreted as prolonged dry periods associated with enriched δ18Odiatom values likely caused by reduced winter precipitation, which coincide with phases of reconstructed severe wildfires in the region. Despite the apparent pristine lake area, we observed a three- to fourfold increase in mercury concentrations and accumulation rates within the sediment record since the early 20th century, which is partly attributed to human air pollution.

In ovo feeding of α-ketoglutaric acid improves hepatic antioxidant-gene expression, plasma antioxidant activities and decreases body temperature without affecting broiler body weight under cyclic heat stress

The broiler industry is adversely affected by the rise in global temperature. This study investigated the effects of in ovo feeding of α-ketoglutaric acid (AKG) on growth performance, organ weight, plasma metabolite, plasma oxidative stress, rectal temperature (RT), and hepatic mRNA expression of antioxidant-related genes in Arbor Acres broilers subjected to cyclic heat stress (HS). Three hundred fifty fertile eggs during incubation were divided into 5 groups according to AKG concentrations and temperature conditions. After dissolving AKG in distilled water at 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5, 0% AKG was in ovo administered to 2 of the 5 groups whereas the remaining 3 groups received 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5%, respectively. From d 29 to 34 of age, 4 groups of birds received heat stress (HS) at 31°C ± 1°C for 6 h per day while the other group was kept at room temperature (21°C ± 1°C; NT). So, the 5 treatment groups were: 1) 0AKG-NT, where chicks hatched from eggs receiving 0% AKG were reared under thermoneutral conditions. 2) 0AKG-HS, where chicks hatched from eggs receiving 0% AKG were reared under cyclic HS conditions. 3) 0.5AKG-HS, where chicks hatched from eggs receiving 0.5% AKG were reared under cyclic HS conditions. 4) 1.0AKG-HS, where chicks hatched from eggs receiving 1.0% AKG were reared under cyclic HS conditions. 5) 1.5AKG-HS, where chicks hatched from eggs receiving 1.5% AKG were reared under cyclic HS conditions. HS significantly reduced body weight change (ΔBW %) and average daily gain (ADG) without affecting average daily feed intake (ADFI). Feed conversion ratio (FCR) was significantly increased (P = 0.003) in all HS-treated groups. A significant linear decrease in the final RT (P = 0.005) and a change in RT (P = 0.003) were detected with increasing AKG concentration. Total antioxidant capacity (P = 0.029) and antioxidant balance (P = 0.001) in plasma increased linearly with increasing AKG concentration whereas malondialdehyde concentrations were linearly decreased (P = 0.001). Hepatic gene expression of CAT (P = 0.026) and GPX1 (P = 0.001) were dose-dependently upregulated while nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase (NOX)1, NOX4, and heat shock protein (HSP)70 were linearly downregulated (P < 0.05). Hence, in ovo injection of AKG was effective in mitigating HS-induced oxidative stress without attenuating the adverse effects on broiler growth.

Hygrothermal response of a wood-frame thick-wall assembly to rainwater wetting under future climate scenarios in Canada

Current exterior wall assembly designs for new low-rise residential buildings targeting low-energy demand in heating dominated countries include split-insulation wall and thick-wall assembly designs. Both have been shown to result in thermal efficiency gains compared to building-code minimum assemblies, however long-term hygrothermal performance can vary depending on boundary conditions and the presence of construction deficiencies. Future climate scenarios estimate many heating-dominated climates will experience a reduction in heating-degree day hours and an increase in annual rainfall. Using validated assembly performance data from a Passive House certified facility, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of rainwater wetting, air exfiltration and insulation material properties on the hygrothermal response of a thick-wall assembly. Results show that rainwater leakage values of 0.50% and greater of the adhering rainfall on the exterior surface of the assembly results in the greatest risk for failure. The hygrothermal response of the assembly is then examined under a global temperature rise scenario of 3.5°C for five geographic locations across Canada. Results show that an increase in average annual total rainfall does not directly result in an increase in the failure rate of the assembly when a rainwater leak is present. Additional climatic factors, including outdoor air temperature, driving rain and solar radiation received will influence the hygrothermal response of the assembly and need to be considered when modelling the performance under future climate change scenarios.

Radiative forcing geoengineering under high CO2 levels leads to higher risk of Arctic wildfires and permafrost thaw than a targeted mitigation scenario

Radiative forcing geoengineering is discussed as an intermediate solution to partially offset greenhouse gas-driven warming by altering the Earth’s energy budget. Here we use an Earth System Model to analyse the response in Arctic temperatures to radiative geoengineering applied under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 to decrease the radiative forcing to that achieved under the representative concentration pathway 4.5. The three methods Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, and Cirrus Cloud Thinning, mitigate the global mean temperature rise, however, under our experimental designs, the projected Arctic temperatures are higher than if the same temperature was achieved under emission mitigation. The maximum temperature increase under Cirrus Cloud Thinning and Marine Cloud Brightening is linked to carbon dioxide plant physiological forcing, shifting the system into climatic conditions favouring the development of fires. Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, the Arctic land with temperatures permanently below freezing decreased by 7.8% compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5. This study concludes that these specific radiative forcing geoengineering designs induce less efficient cooling of the Arctic than the global mean and worsen extreme conditions compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5.

Harnessing climate services to support community resilience planning: lessons learned from a community-engaged approach to assessing NOAA’s National Water Model

IntroductionInland and coastal flooding and other water-based natural disasters are projected to increase in severity, frequency, and intensity as global temperatures rise, placing a growing number of US communities at risk. Governments at the local, state, and federal levels have been embracing resilience planning to better predict, mitigate, and adapt to such shocks and hazards. A growing number of climate services have been developed to aid communities engaged in these efforts to access, interpret, and make decisions with climate-related data and information. An important tool for potentially supporting this planning is the National Water Model (NWM), created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Water Center (NWC). The NWM is a river and streamflow model that can forecast conditions for the continental United States.MethodsHowever, community end-users were not being effectively engaged in ways that result in widespread tool use and adoption. From 2021 to 2023, seven geographically diverse US communities agreed to participate in a study to understand how the NWM might be applied in resilience planning. Interviews and collaborative sessions were conducted with NWC/NOAA staff and community resilience stakeholders in Burlington, VT; Cincinnati, OH; Portland, OR; Charlotte, NC; Boulder, CO; Minneapolis; MN; and Houston, TXResults and DiscussionResults provide an improved understanding of potential applications of the National Water Model and have identified actions to overcome the barriers to its use among municipal and regional resilience planners. This research yielded a set of recommendations, co-developed between the seven communities and NWC/ NOAA staff, for how these barriers could be overcome to facilitate wider use of the NWM and its data and visualization services in resilience planning. This study highlights the NWM’s applicability at shorter timescales in resilience planning and points to a more general need for climate services to accommodate near-, medium-, and longterm time frames. The study also found many community stakeholders who use water science and information in resilience planning have diverse disciplinarily backgrounds. Importantly, the majority were not trained hydrologists or water scientists, pointing to the critical need for climate service developers, including the NWC, to embrace co-development efforts that involve a wider range of end-users, including community resilience planners.

Regional reef fish assemblage maps provide baseline biogeography for tropicalization monitoring

The Anthropocene rise in global temperatures is facilitating the expansion of tropical species into historically non-native subtropical locales, including coral reef fish. This redistribution of species, known as tropicalization, has serious consequences for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture. Measuring the tropicalization of subtropical reef fish assemblages is difficult due to expansive species ranges, temporal distribution shifts with the movement of isotherms, and many dynamic density-dependent factors affecting occurrence and density. Therefore, in locales where tropical and subtropical species co-occur, detecting tropicalization changes relies on regional analyses of the relative densities and occurrence of species. This study provides a baseline for monitoring reef fish tropicalization by utilizing extensive monitoring data from a pivotal location in southeast Florida along a known transition between tropical and subtropical ecotones to define regional reef fish assemblages and use benthic habitat maps to spatially represent their zoogeography. Assemblages varied significantly by ecoregion, habitat depth, habitat type, and topographic relief. Generally, the southern assemblages had higher occurrences and densities of tropical species, whereas the northern assemblages had a higher occurrence and density of subtropical species. A total of 108 species were exclusive to regions south of the Bahamas Fracture Zone (BFZ) (South Palm Beach, Deerfield, Broward-Miami) and 35 were exclusive to the north (North Palm Beach, Martin), supporting the BFZ as a pivotal location that affects the coastal biogeographic extent of tropical marine species in eastern North America. Future tropicalization of reef fish assemblages are expected to be evident in temporal deviance of percent occurrence and/or relative species densities between baseline assemblages, where the poleward expansion of tropical species is expected to show the homogenization of assemblage regions as adjacent regions become more similar or the regional boundaries expand poleward. Ecoregions, habitat depth, habitat type, and relief should be incorporated into the stratification and analyses of reef fish surveys to statistically determine assemblage differences across the seascape, including those from tropicalization.

Assessing Regional-Scale Heterogeneity in Blue–Green Water Availability under the 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement outlined limiting global warming to 1.5°C relative to the preindustrial levels, necessitating the development of regional climate adaptation strategies. This requires a comprehensive understanding of how the 1.5°C rise in global temperature would translate across different regions. However, its implications on critical agricultural components, particularly blue and green water, remains understudied. This study investigates these changes using a rice-growing semiarid region in central India. The aim of this study is to initiate a discussion on the regional response of blue–green water at specific warming levels. Using different global climate models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the study estimated the time frame for reaching the 1.5°C warming level and subsequently investigated changes in regional precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, and blue–green water. The results reveal projected reductions in precipitation and surface runoff by approximately 5%–15% and 10%–35%, respectively, along with decrease in green and blue water by approximately 12%–1% and 40%–10%, respectively, across different GCMs and SSPs. These findings highlight 1) the susceptibility of blue–green water to the 1.5°C global warming level, 2) the narrow time frame available for the region to develop the adaptive strategies, 3) the influence of warm semiarid climate on the blue–green water dynamics, and 4) the uncertainty associated with regional assessment of a specific warming level. This study provides new insights for shaping food security strategies over highly vulnerable semiarid regions and is expected to serve as a reference for other regional blue/green water assessment studies. Significance Statement This study helps to drive home the message that a global agreement to limit the warming level to 1.5°C does not mean local-scale temperature (and associated hydrological) impacts would be limited to those levels. The regional changes can be more exaggerated and uncertain, and they also depend on the choice of the climate model and region. Therefore, local-scale vulnerability assessments must focus on the multidimensional assessment of a 1.5°C warmer world involving different climate models, climate-sensitive components, and regions. This information is relevant for managing vulnerable agricultural systems. This study is among the first to investigate the critical agricultural components such as the blue–green water over a semiarid Indian region, and the findings and methodology are expected to be transferable for performing regional-scale assessments elsewhere.

The nexus between direct air capture technology and CO2 emissions in the transport sector

Deploying negative emission technologies has become crucial for limiting the global temperature rise to approximately 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. DAC technologies are being explored as one of the prospective options. These technologies have been thoroughly investigated as a potential project to capture CO2 emissions and provide purified air, natural gas, or fuel oil. An applied approach, on the other hand, was not taken into consideration while evaluating the influence that this technology has on emissions. For this reason, British Columbia provides a substantial chance to examine emissions that were produced after the DAC actions were put into place in 2015. In this study, the difference-in-differences methodology is employed for the very first time to compare the emissions that are produced by the transport sectors in British Columbia with those emitted by other provinces in Canada. The role that GDP and population play in the release of emissions is also taken into consideration in this paper. Based on the research results, it can be observed that the implementation of DAC initiatives has yielded notable effects. Evidence shows that the DAC effort has led to an average reduction of 0.08 in logarithmic CO2 emissions in the transport sector. By accounting for GDP and population, the empirical results indicate that DAC technology reduced CO2 emissions in British Columbia compared to provinces without DAC facilities. DAC initiatives are expected to become increasingly prevalent between the mid-2030s and 2040s. Overall policy implications suggest that there is a need for DAC technologies to collaborate with alternative mitigation technologies, or alternative technologies should collaborate with DAC technologies that are more efficient to achieve the targeted goals in a short time.

Impact of aridity rise and arid lands expansion on carbon-storing capacity, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem services.

Drylands, comprising semi-arid, arid, and hyperarid regions, cover approximately 41% of the Earth's land surface and have expanded considerably in recent decades. Even under more optimistic scenarios, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, semi-arid lands may increase by up to 38%. This study provides an overview of the state-of-the-art regarding changing aridity in arid regions, with a specific focus on its effects on the accumulation and availability of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in plant-soil systems. Additionally, we summarized the impacts of rising aridity on biodiversity, service provisioning, and feedback effects on climate change across scales. The expansion of arid ecosystems is linked to a decline in C and nutrient stocks, plant community biomass and diversity, thereby diminishing the capacity for recovery and maintaining adequate water-use efficiency by plants and microbes. Prolonged drought led to a -3.3% reduction in soil organic carbon (SOC) content (based on 148 drought-manipulation studies), a -8.7% decrease in plant litter input, a -13.0% decline in absolute litter decomposition, and a -5.7% decrease in litter decomposition rate. Moreover, a substantial positive feedback loop with global warming exists, primarily due to increased albedo. The loss of critical ecosystem services, including food production capacity and water resources, poses a severe challenge to the inhabitants of these regions. Increased aridity reduces SOC, nutrient, and water content. Aridity expansion and intensification exacerbate socio-economic disparities between economically rich and least developed countries, with significant opportunities for improvement through substantial investments in infrastructure and technology. By 2100, half the world's landmass may become dryland, characterized by severe conditions marked by limited C, N, and P resources, water scarcity, and substantial loss of native species biodiversity. These conditions pose formidable challenges for maintaining essential services, impacting human well-being and raising complex global and regional socio-political challenges.