Global Recession Research Articles

The Non-Accelerating Infection Rate of Unemployment as an alternative to the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment for the period of the COVID-19 pandemic: The example of the industries of the Czech Republic

The objective of this paper is to use a meso-level empirical analysis to confirm the usefulness of the concepts of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and the Non-Accelerating Infection Rate of Unemployment (NARRU). The atypically negative values are consistent with the findings in an economy in transition and during a global financial and economic recession. A higher value of NARRU than NAIRU signals that the intensity of the government's counter-pandemic measures is inadequate to match the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the labour market. The lower value of the positive gap between unemployment for the NAIRU concept versus that of NARRU implies that the impact of counter-pandemic measures on the labour market was smaller than that required by the pandemic burden on society. The government of the Czech Republic should have implemented a stricter lockdown or ensured a sufficient supply of respirator masks. Localised negative Phillips curve (PC) slopes at the meso level confirm the suitability of applying the NAIRU and NARRU concepts during the period of COVID-19. Ad hoc analysis and regression estimation of PC shifts on a rolling basis and a Break model in the last period analysed (April 2021 to March 2022) found that the PC in the first phase (April to August 2021) and in the fourth phase (February to March 2022) typically had a negative slope in both concepts. In the second phase (September and October 2021) and third phase (November 2021 to January 2022), the analysis located a PC with an atypically positive slope, which is related to fluctuations associated with the pandemic and measures against it.

Understanding recession response by Twitter users: A text analysis approach

Towards the end of 2022, economists around the world predicted that the symptoms of global economic recession were imminent and would be inevitable in 2023. Using sentiment analysis and thematic analysis, this research aims to grasp a better perspective on how the topic of recession is viewed and understood by Twitter users. The researcher crawled tweets by using Python programming language. According to the cleansed and filtered data that the researcher accessed, it is found that 46% of the data has neutral sentiment, 44% has negative sentiment, and 5% each has mixed and positive sentiment. It is also found that the topic of economic projection has become one of the most popular topics on Twitter, followed by the topics of cryptocurrency, politics, energy, and employment. In addition, the research concludes that the topic of cryptocurrency became the only topic that tended to have positive sentiment. Hence, in general the data is dominated by neutral and negative sentiment, and it implied that the topic of global economic recession is perceived negatively by Twitter users.

International input–output linkages and changing business cycle volatility

We quantify the effects of changes in international input–output linkages on the nature of business cycles. We build a multi-country international business cycle model with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors that matches the input–output structure within and across countries. We find that, in our 23-country sample, changes in the international input–output linkages between 1970 and 2007 have led to a drop in output volatility in all countries, explaining up to a half of the drop in output volatility in a median country observed in the data. In the model, stronger international linkages tend to stabilize output in response to domestic shocks, and destabilize for foreign shocks. Since foreign shocks still play a modest role in driving domestic business cycles, the stabilization effects dominate. Nevertheless, changing international linkages have generated larger shock transmission across countries, increasing the risk of a global recession.

Problems of the Global Economic Recession and Strategies for Facing It: An Islamic Economic Perspective

This research aims to examine the problem of global economic recession, which still occurs cyclically, and strategies to overcome it from an Islamic financial perspective. This article is a type of qualitative research with a library approach. Data was collected from library sources, books, journals and other encyclopedias. Data analysis uses descriptive analysis. The research results show that the problem of contemporary global recession has been marked since the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic to the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical war, which caused a drastic decline in global economic activity, triggered shortages of essential commodities, inflation, and unemployment problems due to the United States Central Bank's policy of raising interest rates. The policies implemented by conventional economics have little effect in overcoming existing economic issues. The application of interest policies is strictly prohibited by Islamic law because it constitutes usury. The Islamic financial system is here to provide various strategies that can be implemented to overcome the economic crisis and build an advanced and healthy economy, the primary sources of which come from the Qur'an and Hadith.

COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 spread very quickly around the world following its discovery in China, in December 2019. Lockdowns implemented in China and the Global North to control the propagation of the virus and to save human lives have resulted in a global recession. The transmission of the recessionary effects from the Global North to the Global South is reflected in the decline in sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) GDP and the associated increase in poverty. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the recession induced in China and the Global North by COVID-19 lockdowns may have had indirect effects on SSA mortality that are higher than those directly attributed to the pandemic itself. Our methodology relies on a three-step relationship: (i) the impact of lockdowns on the recession in the North, (ii) the impact of the recession in the North on income in SSA countries, and (iii) the impact of a decline in income on mortality in SSA. We show that COVID-19-induced lockdowns in the Global North, through the severe recessions they induced in the Global South, resulted in the transfer of between 538,000 and 679,000 deaths in one year to SSA, including the deaths of 140,000 to 177,000 children aged 0–5 years. This corresponds to a 6–7% increase in the crude death rate and a 5–6% increase in under-5 mortality. These figures are much higher than the number of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 in SSA. Thus, policymakers must not lose sight of the indirect excess mortality caused by global economic recession triggered by the pandemic. Our results reveal the need to increase the resilience of SSA countries to exogenous shocks, including COVID-19, which, in addition to increasing poverty, may induce excessive mortality due to the high sensitivity of mortality in SSA countries to economic recession.

Analisis Financial Distress dengan Metode Z-Score Altman pada Perusahaan Sektor Teknologi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2019-2022

Technology sector companies are companies that have a major impact on the Indonesian economy because they are the foundation during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the conditions of Covid-19 and the turmoil of the global economic recession have caused many technology sector companies to experience financial difficulties and even lose investors. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of financial distress, the best companies, and overall faced by technology sector companies during the 2019-2022 period using the Modified Altman Z-Score method for prediction analysis. This research is a non-statistical quantitative method research. The population used was 21 companies, with purposive sampling technique and the samples taken were 4 technology sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2019-2022 period. The indicator variables used in this study are the ratio of Working Capital to Total Assets (X1), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (X2), Earning Before Interest and Tax to Total Assets (X3), and Book Value of Equity to Book Value of Total Debt (X4). The results of this study found that in 2019 there was 1 company in the gray area category. In 2020-2022 all companies were in good health, and PT Hensel Davest Indonesia Tbk (HDIT) became the best company. The conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic turmoil of the global recession that occurred from 2019-2022 had no impact on the level of financial distress in technology sector companies.

Doomscrolling or Joyscrolling? A Study of English Lexical Innovations of 2020-2022

The years 2020-2022 experienced a number of world-shifting events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a global economic recession, the racial justice movement, the US presidential election, and extreme climate conditions. Since no social phenomenon can avoid being represented in language, these episodes have influenced the language system, language use and discursive practices. The English linguistic landscape has not been spared the impact of the aforementioned events. The article focuses on analysing the meaning and formation of new coinages in the English language that reflect the changes in society within the specified timeframe. The data used for this study were collected from 2020-2022 updates to online dictionaries which include new words, revised versions of existing entries and new word suggestions. The research data were analysed both in qualitative and quantitative terms. The study singled out five lexical categories of neologisms based on the thematic criterion: 1) discrimination, 2) the influence of famous people, 3) climate change, 4) lifestyles during the COVID-19 outbreak, 5) the business world and employment. The classification manifests that these coinages have become integrated into the English language as part of everyday use for social and communicative purposes. The research findings show that the most productive word formation processes that contribute to the creation of the selected neologisms include compounding, blending, and compounding + affixation.

Research on the Current Situation, Prospects and Countermeasures of Digital RMB

In the economic environment of global economic recession, weak consumption and weakened momentum of economic recovery, due to the impact of the prolonged epidemic, the global economy has become more polarized, and the development of China’s digital RMB has also fallen into difficulties, and the complex international environment has led to China’s economic development is relatively unstable; however, because the world is entering the era of informationization, the development of the digital RMB is imminent. Combined with the background of economic recovery in the post epidemic era, this paper analyzes and summarizes the current situation of digital RMB at this stage, studies the existing deficiencies of digital RMB, and ultimately puts forward four relevant countermeasures and targeted recommendations to promote the development of digital RMB, which mainly include strengthening the internationalization of RMB, continuing to make efforts to reduce the difficulties in payment, improving the relevant technology, and strengthening the measures of market supervision.

Do flexible exchange rates matter for monetary autonomy?

This paper studies the impact of exchange rate regimes on monetary autonomy, by applying a propensity score matching (PSM) model for 174 countries over the period 1970–2017. The PSM technique, that we used here to account for self-selection bias and endogeneity, reveals that the average treatment effect of flexible exchange rates on monetary autonomy is statistically significant, providing support for the impossible trinity. We also find that the effect of flexible exchange rates on monetary autonomy is more prominent in advanced economies than in emerging and developing ones. Furthermore, we show that the global financial recession (GFC) affects the monetary autonomy responses to flexible exchange rates. In particular, the GFC causes an increase in the level of monetary autonomy in countries adopting flexible exchange rates during the post-crisis period.

Investigating Change in Student Financial Stress at a UK University: Multi-Year Survey Analysis across a Global Pandemic and Recession

Growing concern for the mental health and wellbeing of higher education students has been linked to increasing financial pressures associated with studying at university, a factor potentially magnified by the recent global pandemic and economic downturn. With limited longitudinal research to date, this study used cross-sectional survey data collected annually at a large UK university (n = 10,876) to examine overall trends in students’ experience of financial stress between 2018 and 2022. Logistic regression investigated changes in students’ self-reported financial stress across the four-year period, adjusting for variation in survey response rates and respondent characteristics. Our findings showed a 55% increase in students reporting financial stress (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.29–1.86) compared to none between 2018 and 2022. With the exception of 2020 and the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of students experiencing financial stress increased each year. At a time of economic uncertainty, policymakers need to ensure appropriate advice, support, and funding frameworks are in place to ensure all students can continue to study successfully. Ongoing research should robustly examine the links between financial circumstances, mental health, and academic outcomes, to clearly identify intervention opportunities for relieving financial stress.

The Beginning of Democracy in Eastern European Countries from the 1990s to the 2010s and Its Contemporary Crisis: Poland and the Czech Republic as Examples

In 1989, Poland and the Czech Republic almost simultaneously got rid of the socialist regime and gradually embarked on the road to Western democracy. They persisted in the global economic recession in 2008 and achieved economic leaps; however, under the impact of the refugee wave since 2011, conflicts that had been squeezed for decades broke out. For a time, populist forces were rampant in Eastern European countries. Faced with these populist forces, many people lost hope in democracy. This paper aims to present the beginning of the democratization process in Eastern European countries from the 1980s to the 1990s and the reasons for the rampant populist forces in Eastern Europe. The author believes that Eastern European society experienced triple changes in social structure, economic model, and political system at the end of the Cold War. These triple changes exacerbated the inner insecurity of the Eastern European people, and the insecurity planted the seeds of populism. The Soviet Unions long-term control in Eastern Europe led to peoples resistance to the Soviet Union and even the Russian nation. Since the second decade of the 21st century, with the arrival of the refugee waves and many other events in the international situation, this resistance against Russia rose to xenophobia, popularized by populist thoughts, used, and expanded by power. Finally, by analyzing the current status of populist parties in Eastern Europe, the author believes that these populist parties are trying to establish a contemporary nation-state with authoritarian solid rule in the 21st century.

A design review on hypersonic aerodynamics configurations and applicability to hypersonic transports

As the world of commercial aviation recovers from the global recession after the pandemic, demands for faster and more reliable air transportation are on the rise. Research in Hypersonic Transports, led by both government and private sectors, aims to revolutionize the industry with its high time efficiency and customizability for various needs. This paper reviews the design principle and challenges of HST from a technical standpoint, while overviewing high-speed gas dynamics, analyzing the waverider configurations, and addressing the technical intricacies of designing a hypersonic vehicle. It shows that the waverider configuration is a suitable HST candidate for its large fuel storage and high inlet compatibility for an airframe-propulsion integrated design. This paper aims to provide holistic context for the advantages and challenges associated with HST, while providing insights into the compatibility of a waverider configuration that can be optimized for civilian transport applications.

Mental health in times of global recession: strategies for public health intervention.

Mental health in times of global recession: strategies for public health intervention.

Ideologi dalam pesan paskah 2023: pendekatan analisis wacana kritis dengan model Fairclough

Easter is one of the significant moments for Christians and Catholics. The purpose of this study is to understand the texts containing ideology by the Indonesian Communion of Churches (PGI) and the Archdiocese of Jakarta of 2023. The method applied was qualitative descriptive with data collection techniques, namely documentation by downloading written texts from PGI and the Archdiocese of Jakarta. Then downloaded data was followed by data reduction and displayed processes. The results of this process were analyzed using a Critical Discourse Analysis approach with Fairclough's model, which includes Textual, discursive, and socio-cultural analysis. The results of this study show that the textual dimension reveals linguistic features such as fundamentalist and contextual interpretation, cause-and-effect features, and connotative words that undergo expanded meanings. In addition to these features, the use of the pronoun “we” emphasizes the equal positions, indicating strategy of emphasis persuasive meaning. The discursive practices show the variety of language features such as repetition and borrowing texts, Meanwhile, the socio-cultural dimension reveals the concerns and anticipatory attitudes toward potential threats such as the Covid-19 pandemic, global recession, political wars, political issues in 2024, social justice and welfare system, and the consumptive attitude.

Subprime Credit Crisis: Cause, Consequence & Response

The 2008 financial crisis had significant impacts on the global economy, leading to the collapse of several large financial institutions, massive government bailouts, and a global recession that lasted for several years. This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the crisis, highlighting the importance of understanding the mechanisms that underlie financial crises and the role that banks and financial institutions play in them. The recent Nobel Prize in Economics, given to the research of systematic risk and the role of banks in financial crises, is also covered in this essay. The crisis was brought on by a number of causes, including loose monetary policy, a housing bubble, and the growing use of sophisticated financial derivatives. The collapse of the subprime mortgage market, the high level of unemployment, and the collapse of many large companies and banks were among the consequences of the crisis. The paper underscores the importance of continued research into the causes and mechanisms of financial crises.

МОНІТОРИНГ РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО ВІДТОРГНЕННЯ НА ПІДПРИЄМСТВАХ В УМОВАХ ФІНАНСОВОЇ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТІ

Formulation of the problem. The presented study contains the author's vision of the main aspects and approaches to the regime of monitoring the regulation of socio-economic rejection at enterprises in the conditions of post-war economic instability and financial turbulence. The purpose of the study is to analyze the trends and risks of lack of regulation and leveling of socio-economic rejection in the conditions of post-war economic instability in the context of systematization of modern provisions and concerns of leading financiers regarding the probability of a global financial recession. Scientific publications and monographic editions, magazine articles and materials of scientific and practical conferences became the methodological basis of the research. Content analysis of scientific periodicals was used during the research; comparative critical analysis of existing approaches and methods of analysis of financial stability and tax burden; analysis of economic activity of enterprises in the aerospace industry; statistical methods of analysis. The main hypothesis of the study was the assumption of the possibility of leveling social and economic rejection at enterprises due to the introduction of the latest financial and economic technologies of digital transformation and restoration of the production potential of Ukraine. Presenting main material. In the course of the study, it was established that actions aimed at regulating socio-economic rejection in the conditions of post-war economic turbulence can be measured by a set of indicators capable of reflecting the existing state of security factors. The results of the study proved that the transformational processes associated with the use of digital technologies entail the possibility of risks and threats to the financial stability of entrepreneurship. It is proposed to use certain types of technologies to regulate socio-economic rejection in post-war conditions of economic turbulence. The originality and practical significance is defined in the interpretation of the essence and components of the entropy balance of the enterprise, which determines the level of risk of rejection at the enterprise; determination of systemic action factors (the level of enterprise metabolism, the degree of immersion in the socio-economic space, the efficiency of using time lags, the elimination of growing entropy, self-development and homeostasis), the implementation of which can eliminate or neutralize rejection and ensure the perfection of the enterprise's systemic positioning. Conclusions and prospects for further research. Procedures for monitoring the regulation of socio-economic rejection at enterprises are presented, which are distinguished by a time lag from the detected rejection to the implementation of appropriate regulatory actions, which allows the management to make adequate management adjustments in accordance with the available financial resources

Accelerating Global Economic Recovery and Building Resilient Economies in the Post-COVID-19 Era

World economic trends in recent times have been grossly influenced by the ramifications of COVID-19. The paper endeavours to assess the severity of world economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019-2021 relative to the global recession of 2008-2010. It also attempts to surface emerging trends for accelerating economic recovery while building resilience. It employed desk review with a mixed approach. The sample size spanned the 4 main international economies and 21 representative countries. A One-Paired 2 Sample means t-Test at  0.05, 1-tail, 8 df shows that, the economic collapse experienced due to the pandemic was just as bad as that of the 2008-2010 economic recession. Monitoring database reveals that low income and emerging markets are recovering faster than advanced economies from the shocks of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the t-Test  0.05, 1-tail, 8 df again shows that, the world economy is steadily recovering. The recovery can be accelerated and made resilient through economic restructuring by integrating emerging trends such as AI, technology, education and greening into economies.

The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Hike on Gold Futures Prices: The Dynamic Trend

This article aims to study how the increase in the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate is going to impact the gold futures prices under a global economic recession period. Through collecting historical gold prices in chronological order from 2010, the data are then adapted into ARIMA model. It is to investigate the predicted correlation between the macro indicators and performance of the financial derivatives. The result includes that the policy change will have more dominant effects in the long run than short run. The real-world analysis should also incorporate multiple factors that range from qualitative to quantitative to facilitate a more precise prediction of future derivative’s price. The significance of the study is to suggest the time value of policy. Investors who hope to yield long-term return, should pick historical data, and learn the resultant change that happen only a few months after the policy announcement. The authorities should also take note of the intensity of the policy change, trying their best to achieve its economic goal at once, which would avoid rippling vicious effect and panic among the public.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Policy for the Repatriation of Foreign Assets into the Country in the Voluntary Disclosure Program

This research will analyze the effectiveness of the policy of repatriating foreign assets into the country in the Voluntary Disclosure Program. Researchers used the 7's framework proposed by McKinsey consultants with the elements of shared values, staff, system, structure, strategy, skills, and style in assessing the effectiveness of asset repatriation. This research aims to determine whether the repatriation of assets in the Voluntary Disclosure Program has been effective and the inhibiting factors in carrying out asset repatriation by the Directorate General of Taxes. This research uses a post-positivist approach with a descriptive research type. Data collection techniques were obtained through literature studies and field studies. Field studies were conducted using in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders such as the Directorate General of Taxes, Academics, the House of Representatives, and Practitioners. The research results show that the elements of shared values, structure, and style are practical, but the elements of strategy, skills, staff, and systems could be more. There are also obstacles faced by the Directorate General of Taxes, namely policies implemented at the wrong time due to the COVID-19 pandemic, taxpayer assets that are not liquid plus the shadow of a global recession due to the pandemic, programs that are less attractive to taxpayers, lack of legal certainty, regarding the Voluntary Disclosure Program policy, as well as the unstable economic and political conditions in Indonesia due to the pandemic.

COVID-19’s Social and Economic Impact on Health Care Professionals in India

Novel Corona Virus or COVID 19 is from the family Coronaviridae, known to mankind since 1962 when it was first isolated from a patient of a respiratory illness. These are pleomorphic viruses containing varying size peplomers (80- 160nM). They have very high rates of mutation due to constantly developing transcription errors & RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) jumps. These viruses are zoonotic pathogens affecting mostly animals including cattle, dogs, cats & bats. However these animal viruses can spread to humans causing pandemics like SARS & COVID19. They can cause wide range of infections from asymptomatic stage to cases requiring management at intensive care units. The first notable disease caused by Coronaviridae viruses was severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2002- 2003. After a decade there was an outbreak in Middle East countries causing thousands of deaths and causative CoV was named as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The present corona virus pandemic, which erupted in Dec 2019 from Wuhan sea food market and was later labelled as 2019 novel corona virus (nCOVID 19) by world health organisation, is posing as a major healthcare challenge across the globe. It is rapidly spreading across the globe taking millions of lives and causing chaos. It has severely jeopardized the world economy causing global recession.