Global Recession Research Articles

The impact factors of China’s outward foreign direct investment in Singapore

The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic led to a global recession, but China's OFDI remained on a steady rise, attracting global attention. By the end of 2020, Singapore was the second most developed country after the US in terms of receiving outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) flows from China. The investment cooperation between China and Singapore played an important role in promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative and enhancing the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study delves into the influencing factors of Chinese OFDI to Singapore: home country institutions, host country institutions, and investment motives. This study takes Singapore as the research object and uses the data of China’s OFDI to Singapore from 2001 to 2020 to conduct an empirical analysis through a modified regression model to analyze the development of China’s OFDI to Singapore, so as to make contributions to: (1) providing empirical evidence for studying OFDI from developing to developed countries; (2) providing reference for investment cooperation in the post COVID period between China and Singapore.

Potential Pathogenicity and Genetic Characteristics of a Live-Attenuated Classical Swine Fever Virus Vaccine Derivative Variant

Classical swine fever (CSF), caused by CSF virus (CSFV), is a highly contagious disease affecting pigs and causing massive pig production losses with severe global economic recession. The immunization of live-attenuated vaccines is still one of the key measures to CSFV management in endemic countries. However, there are also strong controversies about the usage of live-attenuated vaccines, particularly in pregnant sows and young pigs, such as in Europe, where domestic pigs are routinely not vaccinated until severe outbreaks occur. Here, we report a CSF outbreak in a pig farm in China, which affected more than 90% of the delivery sows and led to ∼45% birth loss. Surprisingly, phylogenetic analysis showed that the CSFV isolate (named CSFV/HeNLY2022, GenBank No. OR195698) was clustered into subgenotype 1.1a, closely together with the live-attenuated vaccine strains. Further genomic analysis also revealed that the isolate CSFV/HeNLY2022 shared the highest nucleotide identity of 99.7% with the C/HVRI vaccine strain (C-strain, GenBank No. AY805221). Moreover, compared to the C/HVRI strain, a total of eight amino acid mutations, distributed in Erns (H436thY and S476thR), E1 (T502thI and P581thT), E2 (M979thK and A1061thS), NS5A (A2980thT), and NS5B (I3818thM), were characterized in the CSFV/HeNLY2022 isolate. Our results suggested that the CSF outbreak was most likely caused by the live-attenuated CSFV vaccine or its derivative. It raises concern that the unscientific application of CSFV vaccines could potentially lead to CSFV spread in pigs. It is needed to perform a more rigorous evaluation of the safety of the C-strain-derived vaccines in combination with other different live-attenuated vaccines.

A New Perspective on Strategic Choices for the Survival and Development of Energy Enterprises: An Analysis of Market Power, Innovation Strategy, and Sustainable Development of Major Multinational Oil Companies

As global economic recession and deterioration of the ecological environment become increasingly prominent, every responsible enterprise, especially the energy enterprises with more environmental controversies, will be faced with the most difficult choice regarding sustainable operation in history: market power expansion strategy, or technological innovation strategy? Most of the literature supports the finding that the former can occupy the market advantage and obtain the current market survival, but the future potential is low, while the latter reduces the firm’s negative externality and gains future competitiveness, but current profits are reduced. This paper proposes a new perspective to evaluate the “sustainable development of enterprises” and then constructs a new measurement model, using a linear regression model for empirical analysis, which provides technical support and guidance for energy enterprises facing this decision-making dilemma. For further research, we have proposed more practical business management strategies for the sustainable development of petrochemical companies in developing countries.

Government's Law Strategy in Dealing With Global Recession Turmoil 2023 to Strengthen Society's Economy

Introduction: The threat of a global economic recession in 2023 has been a topic of discussion lately. Various forms of trade both domestically and abroad are predicted to experience a decline. Of the potential economic threats that can occur due to two factors, both external and internal.Purposes of the Research: This study aims to analyze the Government’s law strategy in dealing with global recession turmoil 2023 to strengthen society’s economy in Indonesia.Methods of the Research: To analyze the problems in this article, the author uses empirical legal research types and then analyzes them with descriptive-analytic methods and uses a statutory approach related to the case approach as well as a philosophical, sociological approach. and juridical.Results of the Research: Facing these alarming global conditions, the Government of Indonesia has taken concrete steps, including by issuing Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 2 of 2022 Concerning Job Creation (Perpu Cipta Kerja), which was promulgated on December 30, 2022, LN. 2022/No.238, TLN No.6841. The Job Creation Perpu contains content material that is loaded with the interests of the Indonesian state and people and in optimizing public services there is no violation of the law or the constitution, for the steps taken by the President. Our legal system has also regulated further procedures after the Perpu is promulgated, through the legal mechanisms and procedures that apply in parliament. It is time for us to see phenomena based on real facts and data clearly, based on academic logic. Not just an analysis without facts and different origins.

Government's Law Strategy in Dealing With Global Recession Turmoil 2023 to Strengthen Society's Economy

Introduction: The threat of a global economic recession in 2023 has been a topic of discussion lately. Various forms of trade both domestically and abroad are predicted to experience a decline. Of the potential economic threats that can occur due to two factors, both external and internal.Purposes of the Research: This study aims to analyze the Government’s law strategy in dealing with global recession turmoil 2023 to strengthen society’s economy in Indonesia.Methods of the Research: To analyze the problems in this article, the author uses empirical legal research types and then analyzes them with descriptive-analytic methods and uses a statutory approach related to the case approach as well as a philosophical, sociological approach. and juridical.Results of the Research: Facing these alarming global conditions, the Government of Indonesia has taken concrete steps, including by issuing Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 2 of 2022 Concerning Job Creation (Perpu Cipta Kerja), which was promulgated on December 30, 2022, LN. 2022/No.238, TLN No.6841. The Job Creation Perpu contains content material that is loaded with the interests of the Indonesian state and people and in optimizing public services there is no violation of the law or the constitution, for the steps taken by the President. Our legal system has also regulated further procedures after the Perpu is promulgated, through the legal mechanisms and procedures that apply in parliament. It is time for us to see phenomena based on real facts and data clearly, based on academic logic. Not just an analysis without facts and different origins.

Impact of Economic Recession on Funding of Business Education Programmes in Nigerian Universities: A Case Study of University of Benin

Education in Nigeria has been plagued by inadequate funding over the years. This has continued despite various interventions by successive administrations. The current economic recession in the country has further worsened the situation with its attendant consequences on the different sectors of the economy, which includes the university education subsector. In order to capture the challenges of economic recession, this paper undertook a historical survey of global economic recession and Nigeria and the impact on funding education especially, the university education subsector programmes with specific reference to business education programme of the Department of Vocational and Technical Education, University of Benin. It analyzes the budgetary allocation to the department in the last four years and determines the adequacy of the allocation to business education programme, in the face of inflationary trend in the recessed economy. Findings show that business education programme has been inadequately funded and that there has been neglect of infrastructure and the provision of teaching and learning facilities. The survey also unraveled the fact that budget was not allocated to training of needed manpower, as focus was on payment of salaries and purchase of consumables for the day to day running of the department. Recommendations have been made amongst which are: the need to improve internally generated revenue through entrepreneurship centres and the need for government to increase the budgetary allocation to the education sector to meet the recurrent and capital expenditure for implementation of business education programmes. Keywords: Economic Recession, Business Education, Funding of Business Education Programmes, Nigerian Universities, University of Benin

The Index of the Cycle of Money: The Case of Switzerland

This article focuses on the study of issues related to the functionality and structure of an economy. To achieve this, the theory of the cycle of money is used. The structural features of an economy are reflected in its operational characteristics, and vice versa. The index of the cycle of money indexes how well an economic system can counteract a financial crisis and characterizes how well structured a country’s economy is. Calculations of the index of the cycle of money in Switzerland were compared with the global average index. The results showed that Switzerland is close to the global average; therefore, it has an excellent economy and is equipped to face any economic crisis. The applied methodology abides by theoretical, mathematical, statistical, and econometrical outcomes. This work is significant as it demonstrates the strength of Switzerland’s economy in response to a potential crisis. Prior case studies were reviewed from Latvia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Thailand, Greece, Montenegro, and many other countries. This study postulates that companies with high capital should invest in manufacturing and high technology sectors that should be subject to fewer taxes; this approach facilitates a better distribution of money to the economy by allowing small companies to service the remaining economic activities. The period used for compilations in this study was the global recession of 2007–2017. The reviewed case study results are from a project studying multiple countries, and at present, this article presents the only study about Switzerland’s index of the cycle of money.

The Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth a Case of Malaysia

The stock market is important among many financial markets. Stock Market Development is one of the enabling factors for Economic Growth. The recession crisis occurred a few times and badly affected Malaysia's Economic Growth (GDP) and Stock Market Development (SMD). Also, during the recent pandemic of COVID-19, there was a different reaction by investors and individuals overall towards the economy in Malaysia. There were inconsistent trends when the global recession in 2008 happened and COVID-19 started to spread in Malaysia for both SMD and GDP. This study aims to determine the relationship between SMD and GDP in Malaysia. Using Market Capitalization (MCAP) (as a proxy to (SMD)), Exchange Rate (EXC) and Trade Openness (TRADE) as independent variables and GDP as the dependent variable. Data from 1981 to 2020 is analyzed using Granger causality, and the ARDL method along with applying the Endogenous Growth theory. The findings of the ARDL long-run test suggested that SMD and TRADE have a positive and statistically insignificant relationship with GDP. EXC has a negative and statistically significant relationship with GDP. Granger causality test suggested a bidirectional relationship between EXC and TRADE with GDP. There is a unidirectional causality between SMD and GDP where GDP Granger causes SMD. To improve market regulation, The government should ensure the stock market is well-regulated and transparent, boost investor confidence, and increase market investment. Encouraging trade openness and exports can also help increase exchange rates and boost ringgit's demand.

Investigating the impact of the future carbon market on the profitability of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects; the case of oil fields in southern Iraq

Carbon capture utilization and storage for enhanced oil recovery (CCUS-EOR) is considered a promising solution to meet future global energy needs while significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, the future growth of CCUS-EOR is uncertain due to the global economic recession and low oil prices. This research analyzes the impact of uncertain oil and carbon market prices on the economic value of a CCUS-EOR project which contributes to appropriate investment and future policy decisions. To explore the potential trade-offs between available carbon dioxide (CO2) quantities for trading or injection for enhanced oil recovery, the market's trading mechanism is analyzed by predicting future oil and carbon prices. The forecasted market prices are then used in an optimization model to estimate the optimal cumulative cash flow from implementing a proposed CCUS-EOR project to capture CO2 from the Hartha power plant located in the southern Basra Province of Iraq, considering three different oil fields of Rumaila, Nassriya, and Noor. The results revealed that the profitability of the proposed CCUS-EOR project is affected by both oil and carbon market prices, and a higher carbon price is needed to compensate for the financial setbacks, resulting from reduced oil prices. The research also features the strategic decision-making of oil fields across different sizes in response to various price scenarios. The medium-sized fields consistently prioritize carbon injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) over market trading. In contrast, small and giant fields adapt their approach based on the prevailing market price dynamics.

Greece’s Debt Crisis (2008-2019): An Analysis

The Greek crisis began in November 2009, triggered by the turmoil of the global Great Recession, structural weaknesses in the Greek economy, and a lack of monetary policy flexibility as a member of the Eurozone. Since that time, Greece's economy has started to deteriorate due to a growing debt load and an unmanageable deficit are having an impact on national security. Thus, this study examined the impact of the debt crisis on Greece’s national security by using secondary data from 2009 to 2018.This study has three objectives, namely examining (1) the factor that contributed to Greece’s debt crisis; (2) the impacts of Greece’s debt crisis on its security; and (3) the Greece's approach to overcome its debt crisis. By using a qualitative approach, secondary data from scientific material such as thesis, journal papers and online data were collected. The findings revealed (1) there are four factors that led to the debt crisis in Greece such as political, government expenditure and revenue, social and EU enforcement regulations; (2) other countries, including the US and the Eurozone, as well as Greece itself, have been impacted by the crisis' repercussions on social, economic, political, and security aspects; and (3) Greece had to go through a series of restructuring to be free of this debt crisis. This study concludes, due to poor administration, Greece's debt crisis has a negative impact on security, the economy, politics, and society. Even though there were numerous foreign interventions in the crisis, it didn't just affect Greece; it also impacted other countries like EU members and the US.

Ancaman resesi global pasca pandemi COVID-19 dan dampaknya terhadap ketahanan konsumen di Indonesia: Pendekatan analisis sintesis

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted economic and consumer resilience in Indonesia, especially in facing the threat of a global recession. This research explores the relationship between the threat of a post-COVID-19 recession and consumer resilience. Through a qualitative approach with a literature study type and a synthetic analysis approach, this research analyzes 15 scientific works from 2007-2022 obtained from the Google Scholar database. The main findings include the potential threat of recession as indicated by the performance of high inflation reducing consumer purchasing power, declining economic growth in Indonesia -3.49% in 2020, and rising food prices triggering panic buying. Optimistic individual characteristics, adaptability, and financial literacy demonstrate consumer resilience. Preventive and collaborative strategies between government, business, and society are crucial to building strong consumer resilience.

Reinvigorating Unicorn Startup Employee Productivity Following Mass Layoffs

The transition period from the pandemic back to normal and the global recession triggered many employee layoffs, especially in unicorn startup companies. This mass layoff also had an impact on the remaining employees. This research wants to analyze how to maintain the performance of remaining employees when viewed from the influence of work stress, communication and job satisfaction. The sample is company employees in Jakarta, and the sample size is 200 people. The Jakarta location was chosen because most unicorn startup companies are in this city. The research sample was selected using a purposive sampling technique. The quantitative data processing method is carried out using the survey method. The data is processed using the Lisrel application. Unicorn startup employee, Employee Perfomance, Job satisfaction, Work stress, Communication

COVID-19 induced shocks and its implications for human capital development

BackgroundCOVID-19 has delivered an enormous shock to the global economy, triggering the deepest recession in eight decades, almost three times as deep as the 2009 global recession. Of all the nations in Africa, Nigeria remains one of the nations with a huge and significant impact on the human capital.MethodsHence, here we employed the recent nationally representative data from Nigeria - the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey 2020-World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Agriculture Survey (LSMS-ISA), a harmonized dataset to explore how the COVID-19 induced shocks affected households’ human capital development (using health and education outcomes).ResultsThe results indicate that the COVID-19 induced shocks impact on both health and education in Nigeria. Interestingly, access to social safety nets had a positive association with the health and education outcomes. The study concludes that households’ access to social safety nets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic aids in the development of the nation’s human capital. Therefore, effectively enhancing household’s resilience and strengthening human capital development require positive and considerable innovation, maybe over a period of years. Hence, just an access to the national social safety nets programs or social programs may not be as effective as expected. Therefore, it may not be as successful as intended to just have access to national social safety net programs or social programs that contribute or transfer negligible amounts to the vulnerable recipients over short time frames.

Global economic crisis impact on organic food consumption in the Czech Republic

IntroductionThis study investigates the impact of the global economic crisis of 2008 on organic food consumption in the Czech Republic. The structure of this study includes general consumption attitudes and consumption of individual organic food items (organic milk). The goal of this study is to quantify the influence of selected income macroeconomic indicators on organic food consumption (in general and individually). This study is focused on analyzing how this impact changed after 2008 in both prospectives.MethodsMethodologically, the error correction methodology (ECM) has been applied. However, it has been modified to incorporate breakpoint analysis to model the impact of the global economic crisis on organic food consumption. Thus, the total consumption of organic food and consumption of organic milk has been investigated.ResultsEconometric verification of the estimated model proved that there was a statistically significant positive dependence of both indicators of organic food consumption on all the investigated indicators of income before 2008. Nonetheless, it was also proved that this dependence disappeared after the global economic recession in 2008. This retrospective analysis provides a valuable view of the mechanisms of organic food consumption changes caused by economic crises.DiscussionProspective repetition of the research with the data from the current crisis could enrich the theory of organic food consumption. On the one hand, the results of hypotheses testing could be verified, and thus, the mechanisms of consumer reactions to the crisis could be identified, and the model of reaction to the next crisis cycle could be developed so as not to harm radically this sector. On the other hand, the results of hypothesis testing could be denied, and thus, the evolution in organic food perception and consumption could be stated. In this case, the need to revise the so-far formulated theoretical approaches would be proved.

Documented and Undocumented Skilled Mexican Immigrants and the Global Recession in Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

The main purpose of this article is to analyze the labor market integration of documented and undocumented skilled Mexican immigrants in Los Angeles Metropolitan region during the global recession of 2008. To this end, we use a mixed methodological approach. From the quantitative perspective, we analyze data from the American Community Survey. The qualitative approach includes 20 open-ended interviews with Mexican skilled immigrants. The main findings reveal that skilled immigrants were not negatively affected by the global recession. In addition, legal immigration status turned out to be the most important factor in differentiating those who obtained a skilled occupation and those who did not. However, some immigrants, including those who were undocumented, were able to strategically use their investment in human capital and their access to professional social networks in order to obtain professional occupations.

SELF-COMPASSION AND PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEING AMONG EMPLOYEES IN COMPANIES IMPLEMENTING LAYOFFS

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to mass layoffs in companies worldwide, including Indonesia, which has been further exacerbated by the global recession in 2023. These mass layoffs not only impact the mental well-being of affected employees but also the psychological state of those still employed in related companies. Previous studies have shown that the uncertain employment situation creates feelings of worry, demotivation, difficulty sleeping, and unexplained anger. This study focuses on the importance of self-compassion, which encourages individuals to accept their imperfections and negative emotions without drowning in them. The research using Spearman’s correlation, conducted in Jakarta with a sample size of 101 active employees whose companies have recently carried out mass layoffs, found a significant positive relationship between self-compassion and psychological well-being of employees in companies that have terminated employment (r = 0.821, p < 0.05). The study suggests that self-compassion can be an adaptive strategy to promote well-being and positive psychological functioning during difficult times. Further research could explore different data collection techniques and study subjects.

Research on portfolio in the US stock

Due to the global recession caused by the effects of pandemics, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Fed's interest rate hike, investors are wary of the U.S. stock market. In this paper, we will focus on how to find quality portfolios by using Harry Markowitz's variance portfolio model. Firstly, the data is retrieved to see the return distribution of each stock in this article four stocks are used which are Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA), the expected return and standard deviation of the portfolio are modelled using the Monte Carlo model, and finally Scipy is used to solve for the minimum variance frontier and the most assets portfolio to obtain the optimal asset portfolio return case, the global minimum variance portfolio point, and finally bring it into the CML market for display, the chart can clearly observe the most assets portfolio and the distribution of the asset portfolio, which plays a key role in the later market practice of the investor.

Interrelationship dynamics between stock markets of nation under debt crisis and its major trading partners: evidence from Sri Lankan crisis

A series of crises triggered over a decade may bring global recession, which may impact millions of investors, including countries teetering on the brink due to forex reserve shortages; this study addresses the significant financial event of a small nation declaring bankruptcy. Such events can have adverse consequences on the global economy, particularly affecting the stock market indices of the country’s trading partners. Our research investigates the impact of small nation bankruptcies on the stock market indices of connected importing and exporting partners. Focusing on the recent political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka, we analyze interactions between the Sri Lankan stock exchange and its key trading partners. Employing pairwise cointegration and the vector auto-regressive model-based Granger causal approach, our findings reveal cointegration among the stock markets in Germany, Italy, and Sri Lanka. Notably, the pre-crisis causal links between the Colombo Stock Exchange and other stock markets have dissolved. These insights hold valuable implications for understanding and preparing for similar circumstances in other South Asian economies grappling with forex shortages and rising inflation.Graphical abstract

Exchange rate and GDP nexus in South Africa: the disconnect after the 2008 global recession

This paper estimates the long-run impact of the exchange rate depreciation on GDP in South Africa and whether it changed after the 2008 global financial crisis. The paper further determines whether certain channels amplified or dampened the transmission of exchange rate deprecation to GDP after the crisis. The long-run relationship estimated using fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and ordinary least squares indicates a one percent exchange rate depreciation raises GDP by less than 1.4 percent. Evidence from the model with the interactive global financial crisis dummy and exchange rate shows that the impact of the exchange rate depreciation on GDP was diminished after the crisis. The counterfactual analysis reveals that the exchange rate volatility, foreign demand, investment, imported intermediate inputs, consumption, consumer price level, and export volume channels dampened the stimulative effects of the exchange rate depreciation on GDP post-2008. This evidence indicates a disconnect between the exchange rate depreciation and the GDP relationship. This implies that policymakers cannot rely on the exchange rate depreciation as a potent macroeconomic stabilization policy tool and may not achieve the National Development Plan growth objective via an export-led growth strategy.

How Zakat Responds to the Global Recession? An Implementation From Indonesia’s National Zakat Regency (BAZNAS)

The global recession is an economic phenomenon that can have a significant negative impact on various sectors of life, especially for more vulnerable people. In this context, this study aims to examine the role of Zakat in overcoming the impact of the global recession. Research Methods: This study uses a literature review approach by analyzing related documents. The data obtained is analyzed thematically to identify various mechanisms and strategies that can be used by Zakat in overcoming the impact of the global recession. Finding/Results: The results of the study show that zakat has great potential in making a significant contribution to overcoming the impact of the global recession. The role of zakat can be seen from several aspects, including Redistribution of Wealth, Economic Empowerment, and Improved Social Welfare. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that zakat can play a role in minimizing the impact of the global recession. This study is limited to the portrait of zakat management by the government, which is reflected in innovative zakat utilization programs but has not looked specifically at the direct benefits of zakat in improving the standard of living of the economy, one of which is through saving activities. In line with this, further research is needed on the integration of zakat in increasing economic activity and investment.