Global Prices Research Articles

The effect of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty on global food commodity prices

The effect of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty on global food commodity prices

Global Oil Price Swings: Has Their Effect on Malta Changed Over Time?*

Global Oil Price Swings: Has Their Effect on Malta Changed Over Time?*

Price trends for forest products

The forest complex, as a subject of study, possesses unique characteristics and distinct features that are related to its multi-layered structure. This structure connects primary industries and secondary industries that are dependent on the forest resource base. One key characteristic of both the national and global forest products markets is the significant fluctuation in prices for various types of forest products, both on a global and domestic scale. The ban on imports of forest products to European countries from 2022 has led to negative trends in price fluctuations for forest products in the domestic market. Prices for many types of forest products decreased by 1.5 – 2 times during the period of 2022-2023. The Russian Federation faces challenges in the sustainable and efficient development of the forest industry due to the unpredictable fluctuations in global and domestic prices for forest products. Therefore, in such conditions, the study of pricing and the development of an optimal mechanism for pricing timber products becomes an important aspect of management.

International oil price uncertainty and enterprise investment efficiency: An empirical research of listed companies in China.

This article investigates the effect of international oil price uncertainty on investment efficiency using quarterly data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020. It is discovered that uncertainty about oil prices increases principal-agent conflicts and information asymmetry in enterprises, leads to more inefficient investment, and ultimately lowers firms' investment efficiency. Furthermore, China's unique property rights foundation, firm size, and life cycle limit the aforementioned consequences. Additional investigation reveals that by raising companies' cash reserves, oil price uncertainty exacerbates overinvestment behavior. The study presented in this article can serve as a guide for businesses looking to make the best decisions in the context of volatile global oil prices and support their long-term, stable development.

Asymmetric Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Foreign capital inflows remain volatile and their impact on economic growth remains uncertain due to persistent challenges relating to policy inconsistence insufficient infrastructure and fluctuations in Global oil price. The volatility of these inflows posed challenges, raises concern on their impact on economic growth. This study examined the impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 – 2023.The variables of interest are real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), remittance (REM) foreign portfolio investment (FPI) official development assistance (ODA) external debt (ED) government expenditure on health (GEH) and government expenditure on education (GEE).This study employed a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality test. The finding from the NARDL model showed that Foreign Direct Investment, Remittances, Official Development Aid, External Debt, government expenditure on health, and government expenditure on education all exhibit substantial impacts, with positive changes in these variables associated with increased economic growth, and negative changes leading to decreased economic growth in both short and long run period. The finding further revealed significant asymmetric impacts between Foreign Direct Investment, Remittances, Official Development Aid, government expenditure on health, and government expenditure on education with exception of External debt in the short run .This study recommends that to unlock Nigeria’s full growth potential, policymakers should boost absorptive capacity of the economy through improve infrastructure, security, and legal frameworks to effectively utilize incoming capital and accelerate sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, prioritize health and education spending to develop a skilled and healthy workforce, ultimately boosting domestic activity and productivity.

The impact of global oil prices and some factors on the Qatari GDP for the period 2003Q1–2023Q4

The impact of global oil prices and some factors on the Qatari GDP for the period 2003Q1–2023Q4

Пакистан – Международный валютный фонд: помощь или вызов экономическому суверенитету?

Pakistan has faced economic challenges in recent years amid rising global crude oil prices and hydrocarbon import bills: free fall of the rupee, high interest rates, elevated fiscal deficits, 37% inflation, falling stock market, and as a result – shrinking industrial production and elimination of social welfare spending. The borrowings from the IMF, China, and Gulf countries to restore foreign exchange reserves and lack of capability to return them convinced the military-civil authorities in 2023 to declare a threat to the country’s economic sovereignty. The 2019 IMF financial assistance program approved the allocation of 6.5 billion USD until 2023. In 2023, the Fund approved an additional Stand-By Agreement in the amount of 3 billion USD. Basic requirements of the IMF included tightening of credit and financial policy; conducting reforms to improve budgetary discipline and broaden the tax base; reducing public debt; etc. The authorities took a number of urgent measures, first of all, they increased electricity tariffs and the amount of collected taxes. Pakistani society has been critical of the IMF’s demands, especially the increases in electricity tariffs and cuts in social benefits, accusing the IMF of making Pakistan a victim of a debt trap, like many other developing countries. In 2020–2021, the five COVID-19 pandemic waves in Pakistan and then the devastating flood in the country made the situation even more complicated. Challenges in the economy were aggravated by the fierce internal struggle of political opponents. The economic reforms carried out by the three subsequent governments in 2018–2022, headed by prime ministers Imran Khan, Shehbaz Sharif, and Anwaar Haq Kakar, were inconsistent and contradictory, which provoked criticism on the part of the IMF.

Food Demand Responses to Global Price Shocks: Contrasts in Sub-National Evidence from Nigeria

Food Demand Responses to Global Price Shocks: Contrasts in Sub-National Evidence from Nigeria

How prices and income influence global patterns in saturated fat intake by age, sex and world region: a cross-sectional analysis of 160 countries

ObjectiveWhen considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine...

ПРОБЛЕМИ ТА НАПРЯМКИ ВДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ ЛОГІСТИКИ ОЛІЙНИХ КУЛЬТУР УКРАЇНИ НА СУЧАСНОМУ ЕТАПІ

Since the middle of 2020, global prices for oilseeds and grain crops have started to rise as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.Russia's unprovoked and unjustified aggression against Ukraine increased prices even more.Due to the war, Ukraine, one of the leading exporters of agricultural products, experienced exports significant decrease, by almost 30 %.At the current stage, the production and export of oil crops is not only the basis for the development of the economy of Ukraine, but also ensures and maintains global food security at an appropriate level. Provided that a full-scale russian invasion continues beyond 2024, the global food crisis will worsen, challenging many countries, especially those that rely on food imports, namely the Middle East and North Africa.Coupled with rising energy costs, developing countries have been pushed to the brink of debt default more and more people are on the brink of starvation.On July 22, 2022, the United Nations, Turkey and Ukraine agreed on the Black Sea Grain Initiative.The agreement allowed the resumption of exports from Ukraine of grain, other food products and fertilizers through a safe maritime humanitarian corridor from three key Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi, to the rest of the world.The aim of the paper is to study the problems of the oil crops’ logistics in Ukraine at the current stage and to determine the main directions for its improvement. The paper deals with the dynamics of sunflower production and productivity in Ukraine, analyzes the current state and dynamics of the export of oil crops.Special attention was paid to the import dependence of some countries of the world on Ukrainian oil.The impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on global oilseed export logistics is determined. Directions for improving the logistics of oilseed crops in Ukraine through the reorientation of the main export routes to the river ports of the Danube are proposed.Measures have been determined to increase cargo transshipment capacity and increase the draft of ships on certain sections of the Danube route, which will enable Ukrainian exporters of oilseeds to work with a sufficient level of profit.Keywords: export logistics, export of oil crops, Black Sea grain initiative, Danube river ports.

Vulnerability of the Indian cashew market to global price shocks

Vulnerability of the Indian cashew market to global price shocks

Exploring Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan; Fresh Insights from Vector Autoregressive Analysis

It is a widespread argument that mild inflation is in favor of the economic growth of an economy. However, high inflation can be destructive to consumers as well as to businesses and the overall economy. Hence, identifying essential sources of inflation is crucial for both the central bank and economic units. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the key determinants of inflation in Pakistan by using time series data over the period extending from July 1993 to May 2021 and employing the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. The variables are seasonally adjusted while growth rates of all the variables are used except for the interest rate in the study. The model results revealed that global crude oil prices, imports, money supply, and government borrowing are the most important determinants of inflation in Pakistan. Furthermore, the findings also showed that the exchange rate and interest rate have a positive effect on inflation and are statistically significant. Based on the findings, the study recommended that inflation may be kept under control by taking the following measures such as controlling government borrowings, money supply, and particularly, imports. Additionally, regulating exports and interest rates can also help in combating the problem of inflation.

The Impact of russia’s Military Aggression on the Formation of Macroeconomic Indicators of Post-Soviet Countries and Support for Ukraine

The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are felt all over the world. Russian aggression has put pressure on global commodity prices, exacerbated disruptions in supply chains, and fueled inflation in most countries around the world. The countries that have decided to support russia today, or are trying to avoid confrontation with them, should be clearly aware that in the eyes of Ukrainians and the whole world they are silent accomplices in crimes and genocide against the Ukrainian people. The purpose of the article is to analyze how the countries of the former USSR reacted to the russian aggression against Ukraine, the statements of politicians and the decisions of the governments of the countries that, together with Ukraine, were part of the USSR until 1991; to determine how Westernization affects macroeconomic indicators and the formation of European values in the countries of the post-Soviet space. The article defines aspects of the formation of macroeconomic factors in the countries of the post-Soviet space. It was determined that despite the right of the union republics to state sovereignty formally enshrined in the Constitution, the USSR was actually a unitary state. It was created as a highly centralized, totalitarian and authoritarian system, incompatible with the principles of democracy, free and full development of nations. The study analyzes when the whole world expresses support and help to Ukrainians, at the same time, some post-Soviet countries, in particular, the leader of Kyrgyzstan, expressed support to the Russian president. Another ally in russia's war against Ukraine is Tajikistan. The main components of the economic factor of Westernization are considered: GDP per capita, capital investments and the size of the minimum wage. To calculate the extent to which groups of post-Soviet states are related in the studied macroeconomic indicators, we calculated the coefficient of variation based on the standard deviation.

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Imperative of Functional Technology Education in Nigeria: A Historical Analysis

Nigeria has recorded great losses since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019. Over-reliance on oil as source of national revenue and inadequate human capital development have impeded the country’s response to the global emergency. This study examines how technology education can stimulate a diversified economy to boost Nigeria’s capacity to withstand future crises. It employed a historical research method, comprising mainly secondary sources. The pandemic exposed the morbidity and inadequacy of Nigeria’s health facilities. In addition, a sharp drop in the global price of crude oil worsened the country’s wobbling economy during the pandemic. At the micro level, the lockdown imposed by government turned many self-employed Nigerians to idlers. The COVID-19 pandemic could have been a platform to enhance researches in medical sciences and health technology but the extant problems in the country’s higher education sector such as poor funding, lack of motivation for teaching and research, brain drain, and poor curriculum prevented meaningful innovation in that regard. The study recommends reforms in technology education to create a work force for non-oil sectors like agriculture, solid minerals, small and medium enterprises, and indigenous industries. This would stimulate self-reliance and a diversified economy to keep Nigeria unperturbed during future emergencies.

The Impact of Russian-Ukraine Conflict on Profitability and Valuation of Indonesian Coal Stocks

This research investigates the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on the profitability and valuation of publicly listed Indonesian coal companies. Leveraging panel regression, the study offers empirically grounded perspectives on how an acute geopolitical conflict disrupted global energy trade flows to influence key financial metrics of a major exported commodity. Specifically, the analysis focuses on five leading Indonesian coal miners over 2019-2022. Profitability dynamics are examined through gross profit margins while valuations reliance on price-to-earnings ratios. Control variables capture coal prices, a conflict indicator, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rate fluctuations. Results reveal the global coal price spike had a statistically significant positive impact on profit margins, affirming the turmoil's commodity super-cycle upside. However, valuations diverged from earnings trends, suggesting more complex reassessments of long-term prospects. The conflict itself directly affected profitability but not valuations. This research contributes timely empirical insights on an understudied intersection of geopolitics, commodity markets, and emerging market equities. Evidence-based quantification of financial linkages and risk transmission inform both theory and practice. Strategic decision makers obtain granular clarity regarding exposures and opportunities during energy market turmoil.

The Effect of Global Oil and Gas Prices and Production Fluctuations on the Economy of Nigeria

Once a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, crude oil production now experiences a paradigm shift, abundant for domestic consumption and export, signaling a lasting global oil price transformation. Despite a surge in U.S. hydrocarbon production and weakening oil prices, imports from Nigeria dramatically dropped from 1.5 million barrels per day in 2006 to 0.2 million in 2013, ceasing entirely by early 2014. Consequently, Nigeria faced a sudden depletion of trade surpluses and reduced foreign reserves. This study delves into the immediate and long-term challenges confronting Nigeria, particularly examining the impact of recent oil and gas price fluctuations on key macroeconomic factors. Findings highlight the balance of payments' high elasticity to oil price shifts and low elasticity to money supply changes with a coefficient of determination of 78.69%. Additionally, the exchange rate shows low elasticity to oil price changes and moderate elasticity to money supply variations with a coefficient of determination of 82.80%.

The impact of the Ukrainian food crisis on the globalized world

The article is devoted to an overview of the main effects of the food crisis in Ukraine, caused by the Russian invasion, in relation to the world situation in the food sector. The author gives a systemic outline of the macro-level impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the problems of hunger, access to healthy food, prospects for destabilization processes in the sphere of food production and supply. The most significant aspects of the influence of hostilities on the production of agricultural products in Ukraine and on its export are considered. We are analyzing the consequences in the field of global pricing on food markets, the global fight against hunger in different countries. The global food crisis, which began long before the Russian invasion, has turned into a lever of global political struggle. Despite the partial leveling of processes in the field of global food security in 2023, it is not yet possible to talk about a return to the indicators of the beginning of 2022. We highlight the general aspects of the operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the consequences of the disruption of its operation are considered. The author notes the ambiguity of the case with the Black Sea Grain Initiative; this ambiguity is illustrated by the position of five Eastern European countries, at whose request the European Commission limited the sale of Ukrainian grain on their territories. The dependence of the global situation in the field of food security on political intrigues and nuances further complicates the process of overcoming food problems. This case causes reputational damage to Ukraine in addition to the direct damage caused by the Russian invasion. It records the growth of crisis processes in the fields related to the food sphere and the ambiguity of the positions of individual European states regarding the crisis of Ukrainian grain exports. We made a conclusion about the large-scale damage caused to the stability of the world food market by direct and indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine, and about the negative prospects of this problematic field.

Indonesian National Tin Production Planning: Conceptual Framework

Tin mining in Indonesia has been regulated by Indonesia Law Number 3 of 2020. However, it has not been fully utilized in Indonesia despite the country's abundant tin deposit opportunities, its position as one of the significant producers of tin globally, and the impact on both the global tin stock and price. In light of this, a comprehensive literature review has been carried out; an initial conceptual framework and causal loop diagram of Indonesia’s national tin production planning have been produced to produce the concept of an instrument for setting national tin production quotas and the concept of formulating the distribution of national tin production levels that could be a reference for future researchers as well as Government of Indonesia in order to find the national tin production planning.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Global Oil and Commodity Price Shocks on the Economy of Pakistan

The effects of oil and commodity price shocks on Pakistan's real exchange rate, inflation rate, government spending, money market rate, and industrial output are examined using monthly data from 2000-2017. Using the vector autoregressive (VAR) paradigm, we do an empirical investigation. Impulse response functions and generalized prediction variance decompositions are used to analyze the effect that fluctuations in oil and commodities prices have on Pakistan's economy. When the world oil price (LWOP) causes shock in the global oil market, the real exchange rate (LRER) shows a negative impulse response function. As a result of the rising cost of crude oil throughout the globe, inflation has been on the rise. Industrial output falls, the real exchange rate rises, and interest rates and inflation go up as a result of shocks. Despite increased industrial production, commodities prices have seen repercussions. Pakistan's interest rate follows shocks by rising for a prolonged period, much as the money market rate (MMR)or interest rate. After oil and commodity price shocks, governments tend to increase their spending. The real effective exchange rate is the primary source of economic volatility, as shown by generalized impulse response functions. Pakistan's economy has been hit hard by the shocks, especially the aftershocks in the currency rate. A depreciating currency rate is being seen in Pakistan. The real effective exchange rate is the main cause of fluctuations in the economy, as demonstrated by tools called generalized impulse response functions.

A cure-all for energy poverty? Thinking critically about energy advice

Dramatic increases in global energy prices in 2022 have sharpened focus on the suffering experienced by people living in energy poverty – a situation where they are unable to afford the energy required to meet their basic needs. In many countries, providing energy advice to householders is part of a wider strategy to assist those who are experiencing such hardship. However, little research scrutinises whether and how energy advice can be useful in reducing vulnerability to energy poverty. It is this research gap we address here. Drawing on an extensive qualitative dataset, we find that efforts to provide tailored, in-person advice can help to partially ameliorate energy poverty, but its impacts are limited by structural factors that are beyond the immediate influence of advisors or individual citizens. Energy advice should be seen as a supplement to, not a replacement for, more ambitious and transformative political action that addresses the structural and institutional drivers of inequality.