Global Oil Prices Research Articles

Crude Oil Production, Corruption and Upstream Oil Revenue in Nigeria: General Outlook, Conditions and Methodology

The study examined general outlook and conditions of crude oil production, corruption risk and upstream oil revenue in Nigeria. The study focused mainly on the revenue generated from crude oil production and oil export with the purpose of assessing oil exploration and corruption with the objective of investigating Nigeria’s oil export and its contribution to the growth of revenue generation and finding out if the level of corruption affects the upstream revenue generation in Nigeria. it is discovered that the following variables are germane in the empirical studies reviewed and econometric models are conceptualized that proven oil reserve, OPEC quotas, global oil demand, global oil supply, geopolitical risk index, disaster risk index, global terrorism index, global oil price, exchange rate variation, upstream oil theft, number of pipeline vandalism, oil bunkering, tax evasion and corruption perceptions index are relevant and possible determinants of downstream oil revenue in Nigeria. An empirical study to investigate the relationship and causal effect of the above-mentioned factors are recommended for further study with a view to making reliable policy statements on revenue sustainability and highlighting and reducing the counterproductive effects of corruption risks in the exploration and production of crude oil in Nigeria.

Oil Subsidy, Corruption Risk, Midstream and Downstream Oil Revenue in Nigeria: Problem, Prospects and Methodology

The exploratory research identified the problem and prospects on the oil subsidy corruption risk and downstream oil revenue in Nigeria. The study focused mainly on the revenue generated from oil refining, storing, marketing, distribution and sale of petroleum products with the purpose of investigating Nigeria’s oil subsidy payments and its effects on the growth of downstream oil revenue and finding out if the level of corruption affects the downstream oil revenue sustainability in Nigeria. It is revealed that the following factors could explain downstream oil revenue and models are conceptualized that landing cost of PMS, poverty index, demand for local consumption, refining capacity and official pump price global oil price and exchange rate variation are probable significant variables in determining the volume of oil revenue in the downstream sector in Nigeria. A quantitative study and methodology are recommended to evaluate the impact of fuel oil subsidy and corruption indices on the dependent variable (downstream oil revenue) with a view to predicting and forecasting a sustainable and dependable oil revenue in refining, storing, marketing and distribution of petroleum products in Nigeria

PENGARUH KURS, EMAS, MINYAK TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM DENGAN INFLASI SEBAGAI VARIABEL INTERVENING

The value of stocks is affected by a variety of factors, including changes in exchange rates, swings in the price of gold and oil, and fluctuating levels of inflation. These factors also contribute to market volatility. This study's objective is to investigate the factors that have an effect on stock prices, including inflation, the rate of the rupiah currency, and worldwide prices for gold and oil. Purposive sampling is utilized in conjunction with secondary data as the analytical instrument. According to the data that has been presented in this article, there is a statistically significant and negative relationship between the exchange rate and gold prices; there is also a statistically significant and similar relationship between gold prices and stock prices; there is no statistically significant relationship between stock prices and global oil prices; and there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between stock prices and inflation. Both the positive impact of exchange rates on stock prices and the negative influence of gold prices on stock prices are mediated by inflation. Conversely, gold prices have a positive influence on stock prices. Additionally, the price of oil on international markets has a considerable and positively significant impact on inflation. There is a correlation between the price of oil and the value of the stock market, but inflation is not a moderating factor in this relationship.
 Keywords: Kurs, Gold, Oil, Stock Price, Inflation

Exchange Rate Pass-through Dynamics: VAR Evidence for Kenya

A VAR framework with exogenous variable is considered to analyse the exchange rate pass-through dynamics in Kenya. Monthly time series data from January 2006 to December 2022 is used. Six endogenous variables namely; US dollar exchange rate, broad money supply, total import, 20 Nairobi stock exchange share index, consumer price index and 91 days treasury bond rate sourced from the central bank of Kenya were considered. Global food price index and oil prices per barrel sourced from statista and Murban Adnoc respectively are the exogenous variables. Unit root test is first performed to test for stationary in line with VAR assumptions. Oil price and total import are the only stationary variables, while the other variables are of integrated order 1. Secondly, a VARX (2,0) is estimated, which is statistically significant at 5% level. Thirdly, Granger causality test is performed, that provide evidence of causality for 20 Nairobi stock exchange share index, consumer price index and broad money supply with respect to other endogenous variables. In addition, VARX(2,0) is converted to MA(2) to develop US dollars impulse response function. There exist high level of volatility for all variables. Finally, a forecast error variance decomposition following Cholesky decomposition shows significant proportion of variance explained by other variables respectively. Kenya’s policy makers need to build strong framework for monetary policy and exchange rate control measures in safeguarding the performance of macroeconomic indicators.

How does energy finance promote energy transition? Evidence from Shanghai crude oil futures

We examine the energy transition effect of Shanghai crude oil futures (SC). Using Chinese renewable energy firm-level data between 2014q1 and 2021q3, we show that SC can alleviate the inhibitory effect of global oil price fluctuations on energy transition. We further explore three potential underlying mechanisms through which the energy transition effect of SC: reducing the impact of global oil price volatility on firms' business risk, financialized investment, and debt cost. We find the energy transition effect of SC is more pronounced in samples with low-risk resistance. Our paper sheds new light on the real effects of SC on energy transition.

Data-driven analysis of battery electric vehicle energy consumption under real-world temperature conditions

Demand for battery electric vehicles has grown significantly in recent years as global oil prices have climbed. The current development of battery electric vehicles is still in its infancy, and its energy consumption also requires great attention. Five same model battery electric vehicles' driving condition data of a certain brand in Tianjin area are collected for a whole year, and their energy consumption is analyzed. The results show that the energy consumption of the actual driving conditions in the four seasons is generally higher than the test results under New European Driving Cycle, and only some vehicles' energy consumption in spring and autumn is consistent with the test results under Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Cycle. Energy consumption tends to increase at both ends with the change of temperature. The impact of low temperature is greater, because the air conditioner usage rate and power in Winter are higher than those in Summer. Through principal component contribution rate analysis and K-means clustering calculation of micro-trips, the results show that the average energy consumption in urban, suburban and high-speed driving conditions decreases gradually. Driving habits such as rapid acceleration ratio and rapid deceleration ratio also have an impact on energy consumption. The decrease of energy braking recovery indirectly caused by rapid deceleration ratio increase makes the energy consumption per 100 km increase. And the increase of rapid acceleration ratio leads to an increase in energy consumption per 100 km. Finally, the Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that energy consumption has the greatest correlation with the average vehicle speed and air conditioner usage status, followed by the constant speed proportion, idle speed proportion and temperature, and finally the recovery of braking energy per 100 km, acceleration proportion, deceleration proportion and rapid acceleration proportion.

Effect of Global Oil Price Volatility and Exchange Rate Policy on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Iraq

Purpose: This paper offers simulations and forecasts of the ideal currency reserve measure in light of future shocks to the Iraqi economy due to the downturn in the international price of oil and the global economic shutdown triggered by the Corona pandemic.
 
 Theoretical framework: The Iraqi foreign exchange reserves have entered a cycle of sustained and accelerated degradation in recent years and hit alarming amounts in 2020, affecting Iraq's financial stability compared to other foreign currency reserves. According to figures from the Iraqi Parliament's Financial Commission, the Iraqi fund in the Central Bank of Iraq decreased, following removing the government's second loan by the end of 2020, to $35 billion. The Fitch Ratings Agency, on the other hand, has found that Iraq's plan to slash public sector wages and pension costs will delay the reduction of currency reserves as part of the attempt to lower financial imbalances and relieve financial pressures. However, it will be difficult to enforce and risk exacerbating social disorders. According to Fitch, by the end of August (15% of projected GDP for 2020), cash funding from the Central Bank of Iraq grew to 28.5 billion Iraqi dinars from 14.1 billion Iraqi dinars at the end of May.
 
 Design/methodology/approach: The study uses an analytical approach to show the fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on the fluctuation of oil revenues and the currency-selling window that the Central Bank of Iraq applies to its foreign reserves.
 
 Findings: The systemic problem of worldwide petroleum price drops that provide longer-term estimates to estimate the decrease in petroleum prices on global oil markets explains the quick fall in Iraqi exchange reserve magnitude. Iraq's foreign reserves, mostly from oil exports, fulfill international standards. Iraq's exchange rate policy depends on the Central Bank's direct foreign currency sales. This approach reduces foreign money diversion from Iraq, preventing the central bank from maintaining exchange rate stability.
 
 Research, Practical & Social implications: The impact of foreign reserves on national financial stability is becoming more obvious as their function evolves from supplying fundamental transaction needs to fulfilling financial security criteria.
 
 Originality/value: The Iraqi dinar's value must be protected at all costs, hence the Central Bank of Iraq's foreign reserves are crucial. These reserves are affected by oil revenues, the main financier for it, and the window for selling the currency, which is the outlet for leakage from it.

Exploring the nexus between monetary uncertainty and volatility in global crude oil: A contemporary approach of regime-switching

Understanding the complex relationship between global crude oil market volatility and monetary uncertainty motivates the study. Understanding crude oil's volatility is crucial because it affects the economy and geopolitics. Monetary uncertainty, caused by monetary policy decisions, exchange rate fluctuations, and global economic conditions, could affect crude oil markets. Thus, monetary uncertainty and crude oil volatility must be examined to understand the dynamics and inform policy. In this empirical work, we examine the effects of monetary uncertainty on global crude oil price volatility using a time-varying transition probabilities Markov regime-switching GARCH model (TVTP-MS-GARCH). Our approach differs from prior research by considering the potential nonlinearity and shifting patterns in the relationship between crude oil volatility and monetary uncertainty. Our in-sample analysis provides interesting evidence for regime changes between the two monetary variables. The results of our out-of-sample testing show that the asymmetric TVTP-MS-GARCH model outperforms the symmetric version in predicting crude oil volatility. This suggests that monetary uncertainty has an asymmetrical impact on crude oil price volatility. We perform several robustness tests to validate our findings, including alternate lag specifications of monetary uncertainty and varying estimation window sizes. These tests further reinforce the importance of considering the dynamic changes in monetary uncertainty when attempting to predict crude oil volatility. Overall, our research highlights the need for a more nuanced approach to understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and monetary uncertainty.

A Systematic Review of the Causes and Consequences of Price Hikes in Bangladesh

This systematic review aims to examine the causes and consequences of price hikes in Bangladesh, with a particular focus on their policy implications.Methods: A comprehensive search of electronic databases was conducted, and inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to identify relevant studies for analysis.Results: The causes of price hikes in Bangladesh were found to encompass global oil prices, government policies, supply chain inefficiencies, and lack of competition. The consequences of price hikes included decreased purchasing power, reduced living standards, increased poverty, and adverse effects on investment and employment. Household welfare was negatively impacted, and businesses relying on imported raw materials or energy were affected.The author concludes that to address the issues stemming from price hikes, policymakers should consider implementing strategies to control inflation, promote competition, enhance supply chain efficiency, and manage government spending. By incorporating these policy implications, Bangladesh can mitigate the adverse effects of price hikes, leading to enhanced economic stability and wellbeing.

Adaptive Scenario Planning Development for Indonesian Upstream Oil and Gas Industry: Case Study of PT Kelola Migas in Managing Mature Field Phase

The global economic conditions after the COVID pandemic, which have not fully recovered, the vulnerability of global oil prices due to unpredictable external factors, global pressure for decarbonization efforts and the fulfillment of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) parameters to support energy transition, the less competitive condition of oil and gas reserves in Indonesia, and the contract schemes and fiscal incentives in Indonesia that are considered unattractive by investors are part of the tip of the iceberg of uncertainty in the external conditions of the upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia. In relation to the above conditions, PT Kelola Migas (PT KM) requires a comprehensive strategy formulation process based on a long-term understanding of potential future scenarios that focus on external factors as uncontrollable factors that will significantly impact the company. This research is conducted with a focus on the use of adaptive scenario planning methodology, which will provide a fresh perspective for PT KM in utilizing strategic tools oriented towards the medium and long term. Exploring the implications and mitigation options for each scenario is conducted to provide strategic choices in facing potential situations. The identification of early warning signals for each scenario is also carried out as indicators of changes in the current situation towards one scenario or another.

Between Panic and Feelings of Empowerment: Emotional Reactions to the First Oil Crisis and the Debate About a New International Economic Order

Abstract The 1973/74 oil crisis, comprising an Arab oil embargo targeting Western industrialized states and the quadrupling of global oil prices by OPEC, was followed by a major international debate on the establishment of a New International Economic Order in the years to come. This debate not only made it to the top of the international agenda given certain emotional reactions to and perceptions of the first oil crisis in different groups of countries: The successful oil revolution, as it was called by Arab elites, nurtured a sense of empowerment among OPEC representatives while it triggered fears among Western governments, making them more willing to listen to OPEC demands. At the same time, both oil and non-oil developing countries professed a strong feeling of solidarity allowing them to formulate a shared program of economic decolonization. It was exactly these emotional reactions to the oil crisis that enabled the conflict over the New International Economic Order to become such a prominent feature of the decade. Thus, the oil revolution was a game changer without which the North-South debate would have remained on the sidelines.

Measuring the Relationship Between Economic Crises and Investment Portfolios - A Sample Study of Iraqi Banks

Purpose: The study aimed to measure the closing price indicators for the Iraqi bank sector during the period (2010-2020) and using the PMG / ARDL index, which is an acronym for pooled mean group / Autoregressive distributed lag, i.e. self-regression to slow down. Distributed tablet data, to measure the relationship between the components of the economic crises of the dependent variable (closing price) of the Iraqi banks, the study sample, and the independent variables each of (gross domestic product, market value, global oil prices and economic crises). Theoretical framework: The Iraqi economy is affected by economic crises along with the performance of investment portfolios in Iraqi banks. Methodology of the study: To highlight the different conclusions taken by the banks that contribute In its success: Barony's co-integration test, according to the four formulas, shows that there is long-term integration between the dependent variable (closing price) and the independent variables (market value, gross domestic product, crude oil prices) during the quarterly period 2010-2020, which means that the PMG method can be applied. /ARDL. Findings: This study showed that there is an adverse effect from the gross domestic product to the closing prices of the banking sector, and this can be justified by the increase in the gross domestic product associated with the increase in oil revenues. Because the oil sector contributes to 60% of GDP in Iraq. Practical & Social implications: Study main necessary comes from paying attention to the development of investment portfolios in Iraq by following solid policies in implementing the necessary procedures for investing in portfolios, raising awareness of the culture of investment portfolios within investment communities or investment companies, and establishing the idea of establishing a fund to guarantee investment portfolios in a symbiotic manner that reduces the risks of fluctuations in oil revenues resulting from Crises. Originality of study: Comes from that decision makers can reach solutions and treatments to mitigate their severity, and address the imbalance in the stock market in a way that achieves an improvement in the contribution formed by the rest sectors in the total GDP, and reduce the risks resulting from dependence on oil revenues.

Environmental consequences of fuel price shocks in China

This study investigates the environmental consequences of fuel price shocks, using a rich dataset from the Chinese megacity of Hangzhou. Our identification strategy is mainly aided by instrumenting fuel price using exogenous global oil prices. We find that a 10% increase in fuel price leads to a 10.29%–11.45% decrease in driving demand, reflected by road congestion index, and a 17.6%–20.27% decrease in industrial activities, measured by electricity consumption. The decreases in driving demand and industrial activities are indeed correlated with air quality improvement and decline in major pollutant concentrations. While the findings shed light on the short-term environmental outcomes of price-based measures, the negative effects of fuel price increases on industrial activities may generate undesirable impacts on macroeconomy in the long-term perspective. Despite ample evidence demonstrating that drivers respond to fuel price changes, considerably fewer studies investigate their environmental and economic consequences. This study addresses this gap in the literature and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of fuel price shocks on air pollution and economic activities.

What Drives the Economic Activity in the Oil-Producing Countries? An Empirical Evidence for Caspian Countries

Abstract This study investigates and assesses the economic activity in the five Caspian states - Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan over the period from 1998 to 2021. In this regard, we used GDP as the dependent variable, while oil production, global oil price, natural gas production, global natural gas price, exports, and inflation were the explanatory variables in order to investigate and capture their impact on the economic activity in these energy-producing countries. In terms of methodology, we performed the regression models often used in the panel analysis - Common Effects Model and Fixed Effects Model, and also applied various robustness and diagnostic tests, namely: F-test, Jarque-Bera test, Breusch- Pagan LM Test or Chow Test. Our results showed that the Fixed Effects Model provides a more accurate estimation of the economic activity (in terms of GDP), since the exports and the oil production have a direct, positive and statistically significant influence on these economies. For instance, a 10% increase in the exports and oil production generates an increase in the level of GDP of about 0.96% and 3.12%. At the same time, the results showed moderate positive and direct correlations between GDP and inflation, as well as between oil prices and inflation, suggesting that oil prices exert a greater influence on producer prices because of oil’s role as a key input in these oil-exporting countries. Furthermore, by applying the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), our results showed that the variables are not cointegrated and the level of GDP per capita is not influenced by the co-movements of the explanatory variables in the long-run. In this sense, a policy implication of the study would be to develop more intensive co-operation and build new energy trade relationships between the Caspian Countries and other energy-dependent countries, especially the European Countries.

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth and Stability in Iraq through the Public Expenditure for the Period (2003-2020)

Purpose: The purpose of the research is to analyze fluctuations in global oil prices and identify the factors that control them. The study aims to clarify the nature and characteristics of the international oil market, as well as the relationship between oil, public expenditure, and the economy in rentier countries. The research seeks to provide insights into the economic effects of the dominance of the oil resource and track the trends of oil, public expenditure, economic growth, and development in Iraq. Additionally, the study aims to evaluate the extent to which the fiscal policies pursued by oil rent countries are serving their goals, and to recommend ways to ensure the rationalization of public expenditure and real economic growth in these countries. Theoretical framework: the research is based on several economic theories related to the international oil market and rentier economies. The study uses theories such as supply and demand, rentier state, Dutch disease, and public choice theory to analyze the economic effects of oil revenues in rentier countries, the factors that control the international oil market, and the behavior of governments and policymakers in allocating public funds. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the induction method to achieve the objectives of the research and get the intended results by analyzing the data and statistical tables of the sample country. Findings: The research findings suggest that oil rents lead to inefficiency, increased centralization of power, and patterns of public expenditure that decrease efficiency. Rentier economies face challenges in diversifying and reducing their dependence on oil exports. Adherence to budgets and developing transparent and flexible principles is crucial for real economic growth in rentier economies. Effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure is essential for sustainable economic growth in these economies. Research, Practical & Social implications: The research has practical implications for policymakers, emphasizing the need for effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure for sustainable economic growth. Social implications relate to the impact of oil revenues on society, highlighting the need for improved living standards and reduced poverty. Originality/value: The research is valuable as it provides original insights into the economic effects of oil rents and highlights the challenges faced by policymakers in managing rentier economies. The study's emphasis on effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure and the development of transparent and flexible principles adds value to the literature. The research provides valuable insights into the international oil market and emphasizes the importance of sustainable economic growth.

DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED ENERGY IN TURKEY: INPUT- OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The main goal of this paper is to reveal the extent of the import dependency on electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (EGSA), the basic component of energy, in Turkey. Such that growing industrialization in Turkey has expanded the need for energy since many sectors use energy as input to produce output. However, Turkey’s domestic production fails to meet the energy demand. For this reason, Turkey meets approximately 75 percent of its energy needs through imports, leading to an increase in the current account deficit. Energy imports, approximately 20 percent of total imports, have become the primary component of the current account deficit, exposing the Turkish economy to instabilities in global gas and oil prices and several additional risks. In this context, we analyzed the extent of the dependency on energy by the input-output tables of 2002 and 2012. The results underline that as production increases, energy imports increase, and the economic leakage generated by the rise in demand for energy increases. This creates a significant obstacle to the development of the Turkish economy. Hence, existing policies for domestic energy production need to be strengthened for sustainable development goals and to decrease the high current account deficit in Turkey.

Economic effects of Global Crude oil Prices on India: A Time Series Analysis

The dynamics of oil prices is one of the most intriguing economic phenomena that are the subject of numerous pieces of research. Fluctuations in global crude oil prices influence the economy and fuel geo-political and economic tensions across the world. OPEC is the largest supplier of crude oil to nation-states and plays a significant role in controlling these prices. How these prices directly affect India's domestic economy functioning is the main objective of this study. Variables included are Gross Domestic Product, CPI (2015=100) as a measure of the price level, total manufacturing in India, and export of goods and credit included under the current account of the balance of payments. An attempt has been made to study how global crude oil prices set by the OPEC impact these variables in a time series analysis using the Granger causality test and vector auto-regression models. We conclude with favorable results, showing both the short-run and long-run impact of global crude oil prices on these macroeconomic variables.

Insights from adding transportation sector detail into an economy-wide model: The case of the ADAGE CGE model

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide impacts of anticipated future structural changes in the transportation sector, yet few CGE models offer detailed transportation representations. We use an enhanced Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) CGE model to incorporate disaggregated transportation modes and technologies in on-road passenger and freight transportation. We assess the impacts of these inclusions on U.S. transportation patterns, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating illustrative global oil price cases with and without transportation detail, we find subsector mode disaggregation and technology additions in a CGE model significantly alter the impacts of oil prices on global trade and freight patterns, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that: (1) alternative technologies are essential for capturing transportation sector impacts, (2) electrification may reduce emissions with electricity decarbonization, and (3) higher oil prices may hasten electrification.

Measuring the frequency and quantile connectedness between policy categories and global oil price

This study explores the connectedness between various categories of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and global crude oil prices in different frequencies and quantiles using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition and data in the US, China, and Japan from January 2000 to May 2022. The empirical results may be summarized as follows. First, total short and long term connectedness exhibits different patterns and is more sensitive to extreme positive and negative shocks than regular shocks. Second, fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) tend to act as net transmitters of shocks, while the roles of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) are mixed in the short term, irrespective of the country. However, under extreme market conditions, no specific-category EPU features a clear net transmitter/recipient. Finally, the results are qualitatively and quantitatively unaffected by the chosen proxy of crude oil prices and are not altered by global real economic activity.

Regional variability and its impact on the decarbonization of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industries in Canada

ABSTRACT Emissions-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) industries must decarbonize to limit global warming to 1.5°C. This study explores how policy stringency and regional variability impact EITE industrial decarbonization. It uses Canada as a case study due to its heterogeneous industrial sector and high regional resource variability. The study has two scenarios: one with global climate action where the world pushes to limit warming to 1.5°C, and one where Canada acts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world lags. The scenarios differ in three ways: the global price of oil, the pace of technological change for low emission technologies, and domestic climate policy. In the global action scenario, a carbon price of $430USD2020 was needed to achieve 75% decarbonization of EITE industries by 2050. In our global inaction scenario, EITE industries only decarbonize 25%, as domestic climate policy considered international competition and the risk of industrial shutdown. If competitiveness concerns persist as simulated in this scenario, Canada is highly unlikely to achieve deep industrial decarbonization by 2050. The results also show that regional variability plays a significant role in low emissions technology adoption. While all regions will need targeted innovation and commercialization support as well as market uptake mechanisms, we find that relative advantages and disadvantages in terms of resource availability and industrial mix play an important role in how regional decarbonization occurs. For instance, regions with inexpensive local fossil fuels and ready geology suitable for CO2 storage have a high uptake of carbon capture and storage. Regions with access to abundant hydroelectricity rely more on electrification as a decarbonization pathway. Regions with no relative resource advantages are at greater risk for industrial shutdown due to the higher cost of decarbonization.