Global Model Research Articles

Underwater Side-Scan Sonar Target Detection: YOLOv7 Model Combined with Attention Mechanism and Scaling Factor

Side-scan sonar plays a crucial role in underwater exploration, and the autonomous detection of side-scan sonar images is vital for detecting unknown underwater environments. However, due to the complexity of the underwater environment, the presence of a few highlighted areas on the targets, blurred feature details, and difficulty in collecting data from side-scan sonar, achieving high-precision autonomous target recognition in side-scan sonar images is challenging. This article addresses this problem by improving the You Only Look Once v7 (YOLOv7) model to achieve high-precision object detection in side-scan sonar images. Firstly, given that side-scan sonar images contain large areas of irrelevant information, this paper introduces the Swin-Transformer for dynamic attention and global modeling, which enhances the model’s focus on the target regions. Secondly, the Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM) is utilized to further improve feature representation and enhance the neural network model’s accuracy. Lastly, to address the uncertainty of geometric features in side-scan sonar target features, this paper innovatively incorporates a feature scaling factor into the YOLOv7 model. The experiment initially verified the necessity of attention mechanisms in the public dataset. Subsequently, experiments on our side-scan sonar (SSS) image dataset show that the improved YOLOv7 model has 87.9% and 49.23% in its average accuracy (mAP0.5) and (mAP0.5:0.95), respectively. These results are 9.28% and 8.41% higher than the YOLOv7 model. The improved YOLOv7 algorithm proposed in this paper has great potential for object detection and the recognition of side-scan sonar images.

Added value of EURO-CORDEX downscaling over the complex orography region of the Pyrenees

AbstractThis study presents an assessment of the added value of downscaling utilizing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) compared to Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the high mountain region of the Pyrenees, characterized by complex topography. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble was investigated, employing a gridded high-resolution observational database as a reference. A recently proposed method is applied to quantify the performance gains or losses associated with dynamic downscaling. Our analysis focuses on calculating the added value by exploring the extremes of the Probability Density Function (PDF), spatial distribution patterns, and its relationship with elevation. Overall, our findings reveal significant improvements in the representation and general characterization of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature in the Pyrenean region. Furthermore, RCMs demonstrate enhanced performance in capturing maximum precipitation events; however, they struggle to represent low precipitation rates, particularly in the Mediterranean area of the mountain range. Regarding temperature extremes, dynamical downscaling exhibits improvements in capturing maximum events. Nevertheless, deficiencies are observed in the RCMs’ representation of minimum temperature events for both minimum and maximum temperature variables, as well as in representing near-freezing temperatures.

Added value of EURO-CORDEX downscaling over the complex orography region of the Pyrenees

AbstractThis study presents an assessment of the added value of downscaling utilizing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) compared to Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the high mountain region of the Pyrenees, characterized by complex topography. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble was investigated, employing a gridded high-resolution observational database as a reference. A recently proposed method is applied to quantify the performance gains or losses associated with dynamic downscaling. Our analysis focuses on calculating the added value by exploring the extremes of the Probability Density Function (PDF), spatial distribution patterns, and its relationship with elevation. Overall, our findings reveal significant improvements in the representation and general characterization of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature in the Pyrenean region. Furthermore, RCMs demonstrate enhanced performance in capturing maximum precipitation events; however, they struggle to represent low precipitation rates, particularly in the Mediterranean area of the mountain range. Regarding temperature extremes, dynamical downscaling exhibits improvements in capturing maximum events. Nevertheless, deficiencies are observed in the RCMs’ representation of minimum temperature events for both minimum and maximum temperature variables, as well as in representing near-freezing temperatures.

A Robust Tie-Points Matching Method with Regional Feature Representation for Synthetic Aperture Radar Images

The precise tie-points (TPs) on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images are a critical cornerstone in the global digital elevation model (DEM) and digital ortho map (DOM) production process. While there are abundant studies on SAR TPs matching, improvement opportunities persist in large areas. The correspondences have pixel-level errors during geocoding, which result in misalignment between global products. Consequently, this paper proposed a robust method for SAR images TPs matching, which consists of three key steps: (1) interest point extraction based on the dynamic Harris area entropy (DHAE) grid; (2) adaptive determination of template size; (3) normalized cross correlation (NCC) template matching. DHAE is a regional texture information grid based on the SAR-Harris map, and it is achieved through dynamic block division. Generating the DHAE grid over SAR images enables the extraction of interest points that have regional feature representation and distribution uniformity. A variable-size matching template is adaptively determined based on DHAE to enhance template quality while maintaining computational efficiency. Subsequently, the NCC algorithm is employed to find subpixel-precise correspondences. The proposed method is applied on TPs matching in 57 Terra-SAR images, which cover a large geographical area. Furthermore, the overlapping area is partitioned into five segments according to different coverage types. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other template matching methods. For all coverage types, the proposed method exhibits high-precision sub-pixel results that reach up to 38.64% in terms of the relative positioning error (RPE), particularly in texture-weak and large areas.

Future changes in soil salinization across Central Asia under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

AbstractSoil salinization is a critical environmental and socio‐economic concern with global implications, and its severity is expected to amplify under changing climate. The impact of climate change on salinization in Central Asia is still not fully understood. This study addresses this gap by employing a digital soil mapping (DSM) framework. Cubist, random forest (RF), and quantile regression forests (QRF) are utilized to project variations in soil surface salinity (0‐10 cm) in Central Asia from 2025 to 2100 under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. These models are developed using data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results reveal that the RF model exhibits superior predictive capability in estimating soil salinity. RF performed on the calibration set with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.84 and 9.90 dS m−1, ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 3.09 and 3.07, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.86. The multi‐GCM ensemble means revealed the potential for varying degrees of salinization in Central Asia, with higher levels predominantly observed in the southeast and southwest of the study area, particularly downstream of the river and in the lakeside areas. Temporal analysis of soil salinity evolution reveals an overall increase in salinity across the region, with more notable changes projected under SSP5‐8.5. Specifically, the projected increase rate in soil salinity for Central Asia was 0.0005 dS m−1/year under SSP2‐4.5 and 0.01 dS m−1/year under SSP5‐8.5. Turkmenistan is notable for possessing the highest regional average of soil salinity, with the exception of a declining trend observed within this area. The remaining regions of Central Asia exhibit an upward trend in average soil salinity, particularly noteworthy under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, where variations in soil salinity are more obvious. These findings hold significant potential in enhancing our understanding of how Central Asia responds to global change, advances toward sustainable development, and enhances comprehension of the dynamics within the region.

Investigation of the flood event under global climate change with different analysis methods for both historical and future periods

ABSTRACT Global climate change is a phenomenon resulting from the complex interaction of human influences and natural factors. These changes lead to imbalances in climate systems as human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions increase atmospheric gas concentrations. This situation affects the frequency and intensity of climate events worldwide, with floods being one of them. Floods manifest as water inundations due to factors such as changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, erosion, and sea level rise. These floods cause significant damage to sensitive areas such as residential areas, agricultural lands, river valleys, and coastal regions, adversely impacting people's lives, economies, and environments. Therefore, flood risk has been investigated in decision-making processes in the Diyarbakır province using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and future disintegration of global climate model data. HadGEM-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR models with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used. Model data were disintegrated using the equivalent quantile matching method. The study reveals flood risk findings in the HadGEM-ES model while no flood risk was found in the GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models. In the AHP method, flood risk analysis was conducted based on historical data across Diyarbakır and interpreted alongside future rainfall data.

Future changes in soil salinization across Central Asia under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

AbstractSoil salinization is a critical environmental and socio‐economic concern with global implications, and its severity is expected to amplify under changing climate. The impact of climate change on salinization in Central Asia is still not fully understood. This study addresses this gap by employing a digital soil mapping (DSM) framework. Cubist, random forest (RF), and quantile regression forests (QRF) are utilized to project variations in soil surface salinity (0‐10 cm) in Central Asia from 2025 to 2100 under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. These models are developed using data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results reveal that the RF model exhibits superior predictive capability in estimating soil salinity. RF performed on the calibration set with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.84 and 9.90 dS m−1, ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 3.09 and 3.07, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.86. The multi‐GCM ensemble means revealed the potential for varying degrees of salinization in Central Asia, with higher levels predominantly observed in the southeast and southwest of the study area, particularly downstream of the river and in the lakeside areas. Temporal analysis of soil salinity evolution reveals an overall increase in salinity across the region, with more notable changes projected under SSP5‐8.5. Specifically, the projected increase rate in soil salinity for Central Asia was 0.0005 dS m−1/year under SSP2‐4.5 and 0.01 dS m−1/year under SSP5‐8.5. Turkmenistan is notable for possessing the highest regional average of soil salinity, with the exception of a declining trend observed within this area. The remaining regions of Central Asia exhibit an upward trend in average soil salinity, particularly noteworthy under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, where variations in soil salinity are more obvious. These findings hold significant potential in enhancing our understanding of how Central Asia responds to global change, advances toward sustainable development, and enhances comprehension of the dynamics within the region.

The dynamics of evolutionary branching in an ecological model

AbstractEco-evolutionary modelling involves the coupling of ecological equations to evolutionary ones. The interaction between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes is essential to simulating evolutionary branching, a precursor to speciation. The creation and maintenance of biodiversity in models depends upon their ability to capture the dynamics of evolutionary branching. Understanding these systems requires low-dimension models that are amenable to analysis. The rapid reproduction rates of marine plankton ecosystems and their importance in determining the fluxes of climatically important gases between the ocean and atmosphere suggest that the next generation of global climate models needs to incorporate eco-evolutionary models in the ocean. This requires simple population-level models, that can represent such eco-evolutionary processes with orders of magnitude fewer equations than models that follow the dynamics of individual phenotypes. We present a general framework for developing eco-evolutionary models and consider its general properties. This framework defines a fitness function and assumes a beta distribution of phenotype abundances within each population. It simulates the change in total population size, the mean trait value, and the trait differentiation, from which the variance of trait values in the population may be calculated. We test the efficacy of the eco-evolutionary modelling framework by comparing the dynamics of evolutionary branching in a six-equation eco-evolutionary model that has evolutionary branching, with that of an equivalent one-hundred equation model that simulates the dynamics of every phenotype in the population. The latter model does not involve a population fitness function, nor does it assume a distribution of phenotype abundance across trait values. The eco-evolutionary population model and the phenotype model produce similar evolutionary branching, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in both symmetric and asymmetric fitness landscapes. In order to better understand the six-equation model, we develop a heuristic three-equation eco-evolutionary model. We use the density-independent mortality parameter as a convenient bifurcation parameter, so that differences in evolutionary branching dynamics in symmetric and asymmetric fitness landscapes may be investigated. This model shows that evolutionary branching of a stable population is flagged by a zero in the local trait curvature; the trait curvature then changes sign from negative to positive and back to negative, along the solution. It suggests that evolutionary branching points may be generated differently, with different dynamical properties, depending upon, in this case, the symmetry of the system. It also suggests that a changing environment, that may change attributes such as mortality, could have profound effects on an ecosystem’s ability to adapt. Our results suggest that the properties of the three-dimensional model can provide useful insights into the properties of the higher-dimension models. In particular, the bifurcation properties of the simple model predict the processes by which the more complicated models produce evolutionary branching points. The corresponding bifurcation properties of the phenotype and population models, evident in the dynamics of the phenotype distributions they predict, suggest that our eco-evolutionary modelling framework captures the essential properties that underlie the evolution of phenotypes in populations.

Dataset of soil hydraulic parameters in the Yellow River Basin based on in situ deep sampling

Soil hydraulic parameters are vital for precisely characterizing soil hydrological processes, which are critical indicators for regulating climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and governing feedbacks between water, energy, and carbon–nitrogen cycles. Although many studies have integrated comprehensive soil datasets, data quality and cost challenges result in data completeness deficiencies, especially for deep soil information. These gaps not only impede methodological endeavours but also constrain soil parameter-based ecosystem process studies spanning from local profiles to global earth system models. We established a soil dataset across the entire Yellow River Basin (YRB) (795,000 km2) using high-density in situ field sampling. This observation-based dataset contains records of soil texture (2924), bulk density (2798), saturated hydraulic conductivity (2782), and water retention curve parameters (1035) down to a maximum depth of 5 m. This dataset, which extends the recorded data range for deep soil hydraulic parameters, is valuable as a direct data resource for environmental, agronomical and hydrological studies in the YRB and regions with similar pedological and geological backgrounds around the world.

Interannual Fluctuations and Their Low-Frequency Modulation of Summertime Heavy Daily Rainfall Potential in Western Japan

Heavy rainfall under the conditions of the changing climate has recently garnered considerable attention. The statistics on heavy daily rainfall offer vital information for assessing present and future extreme events and for clarifying the impacts of global climate variability and change, working to form a favorable background. By analyzing a set of large-ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model, this study demonstrated that two different physical processes in global climate variability control the interannual fluctuations in the 99th- and 90th-percentile values of summertime daily rainfall (i.e., the potential amounts) on Kyushu Island in western Japan. The 90th-percentile values were closely related to large-scale horizontal moisture transport anomalies due to changes in the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific, which was usually accompanied by basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean subsequent to the wintertime El Niño events. The contributions of the sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean showed low-frequency modulations, mainly due to the influences of the global warming tendency and the interdecadal variability in the climate system, respectively. In contrast, tropical cyclone activity played a major role in changing the 99th-percentile value. The potentials of both the tropical cyclone intensity and the existence density fluctuated, largely owing to the summertime sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific, which can be modulated by the El Niño diversity on interdecadal timescales.

Studying the Aerosol Effect on Deep Convective Clouds over the Global Oceans by Applying Machine Learning Techniques on Long-Term Satellite Observation

Long-term (1982–2019) satellite climate data records (CDRs) of aerosols and clouds, reanalysis data of meteorological fields, and machine learning techniques are used to study the aerosol effect on deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the global oceans from a climatological perspective. Our analyses are focused on three latitude belts where DCCs appear more frequently in the climatology: the northern middle latitude (NML), tropical latitude (TRL), and southern middle latitude (SML). It was found that the aerosol effect on marine DCCs may be detected only in NML from long-term averaged satellite aerosol and cloud observations. Specifically, cloud particle size is more susceptible to the aerosol effect compared to other cloud micro-physical variables (e.g., cloud optical depth). The signature of the aerosol effect on DCCs can be easily obscured by meteorological covariances for cloud macro-physical variables, such as cloud cover and cloud top temperature (CTT). From a machine learning analysis, we found that the primary aerosol effect (i.e., the aerosol effect without meteorological feedbacks and covariances) can partially explain the aerosol convective invigoration in CTT and that meteorological feedbacks and covariances need to be included to accurately capture the aerosol convective invigoration. From our singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we found the aerosol effects in the three leading principal components (PCs) may explain about one third of the variance of satellite-observed cloud variables and significant positive or negative trends are only observed in the lead PC1 of cloud and aerosol variables. The lead PC1 component is an effective mode for detecting the aerosol effect on DCCs. Our results are valuable for the evaluation and improvement of aerosol-cloud interactions in the long-term climate simulations of global climate models.

Interannual Fluctuations and Their Low-Frequency Modulation of Summertime Heavy Daily Rainfall Potential in Western Japan

Heavy rainfall under the conditions of the changing climate has recently garnered considerable attention. The statistics on heavy daily rainfall offer vital information for assessing present and future extreme events and for clarifying the impacts of global climate variability and change, working to form a favorable background. By analyzing a set of large-ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model, this study demonstrated that two different physical processes in global climate variability control the interannual fluctuations in the 99th- and 90th-percentile values of summertime daily rainfall (i.e., the potential amounts) on Kyushu Island in western Japan. The 90th-percentile values were closely related to large-scale horizontal moisture transport anomalies due to changes in the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific, which was usually accompanied by basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean subsequent to the wintertime El Niño events. The contributions of the sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean showed low-frequency modulations, mainly due to the influences of the global warming tendency and the interdecadal variability in the climate system, respectively. In contrast, tropical cyclone activity played a major role in changing the 99th-percentile value. The potentials of both the tropical cyclone intensity and the existence density fluctuated, largely owing to the summertime sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific, which can be modulated by the El Niño diversity on interdecadal timescales.

GDM-depth: Leveraging global dependency modelling for self-supervised indoor depth estimation

Self-supervised depth estimation algorithms eschew depth ground truth and employ the convolutional U-Net with a fixed receptive field which confines its focus primarily to nearby spatial distances. These factors obscure adequate supervision during image reconstruction, consequently hindering accurate depth estimation, particularly in complex indoor scenes. The pure transformer framework can perform global modelling to provide more semantic information. However, the cost is significant. To tackle these challenges, we introduce GDM-Depth, which utilizes global dependency modelling to offer more precise depth guidance from the network itself. Initially, we propose integrating learnable tree filters with unary terms, leveraging the structural properties of spanning trees to facilitate efficient long-range interactions. Subsequently, instead of replacing the convolutional framework entirely, we employ the transformer to design a scale-aware global feature extractor, establishing global relationships among local features at various scales, achieving both efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, inter-class disparities between depth global and local features are observed. To address this issue, we introduce the global feature injector to further enhance the representation. GDM-Depth's effectiveness is demonstrated on the NYUv2, ScanNet, and InteriorNet depth datasets, achieving impressive test set performances of 87.2%, 83.1%, and 76.1% in key indicators δ<0.125, respectively.

Proposal and investigation of a distributed learning strategy in Orbital Edge Computing-endowed satellite networks for Earth Observation applications

One of the key enabling solutions to in-orbit extract information from Earth Observation images is given by deep learning techniques. However, the accuracy of these algorithms is strictly related to the availability of large datasets of satellite images for training purposes. Limitations on the available transmission bandwidth in the orbital context may prevent the possibility to downlink all acquired images to a node where centralized training happens. Instead, Federated Learning (FL) could be fruitfully leveraged in this scenario, since it provides for each satellite to train a local model only with its own dataset, and then to share its trained model with a central server, which receives models trained by the different satellites and aggregates them into a new global model being eventually shared with all the satellites, and this repeats until convergence is reached. However, because communication with a node acting as a central parameter server may be still limited by short visibility time, the described process may need a long time because of limited communication windows, negatively impacting the time needed to reach model convergence. For this reason, we propose a communication strategy to support a completely distributed learning technique to train a deep learning model in-orbit, by leveraging the fact that satellites may form a network thanks to the potential availability of Inter-Satellite Links (ISLs) within and between orbital planes. Our proposal is different from a FL approach since we provide for each satellite to receive all the information needed to calculate an updated global model by itself, without leaning on a central parameter server. Numerical results show that distributed learning outperforms FL in number of learning rounds completed in the unit time, allowing for reaching validation accuracy convergence in a shorter time, as it has been verified on a land coverage classification task based on the EuroSAT dataset.

Different Vegetation Covers Leading to the Uncertainty and Consistency of ET Estimation: A Case Study Assessment with Extended Triple Collocation

Accurate and reliable estimation of actual evapotranspiration (AET) is essential for various hydrological studies, including drought prediction, water resource management, and the analysis of atmospheric–terrestrial carbon exchanges. Gridded AET products offer potential for application in ungauged areas, but their uncertainties may be significant, making it difficult to identify the best products for specific regions. While in situ data directly estimate gridded ET products, their applicability is limited in ungauged areas that require FLUXNET data. This paper employs an Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) method to estimate the uncertainty of Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FLDAS), and Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) AET product without requiring prior information. Subsequently, a merged ET product is generated by combining ET estimates from three original products. Furthermore, the study quantifies the uncertainty of each individual product across different vegetation covers and then compares three original products and the Merged ET with data from 645 in situ sites. The results indicate that GLEAM covers the largest area, accounting for 39.1% based on the correlation coefficient criterion and 39.9% based on the error variation criterion. Meanwhile, FLDAS and MEP exhibit similar performance characteristics. The merged ET derived from the ETC method demonstrates the ability to mitigate uncertainty in ET estimates in North American (NA) and European (EU) regions, as well as tundra, forest, grassland, and shrubland areas. This merged ET could be effectively utilized to reduce uncertainty in AET estimates from multiple products for ungauged areas.

Different Vegetation Covers Leading to the Uncertainty and Consistency of ET Estimation: A Case Study Assessment with Extended Triple Collocation

Accurate and reliable estimation of actual evapotranspiration (AET) is essential for various hydrological studies, including drought prediction, water resource management, and the analysis of atmospheric–terrestrial carbon exchanges. Gridded AET products offer potential for application in ungauged areas, but their uncertainties may be significant, making it difficult to identify the best products for specific regions. While in situ data directly estimate gridded ET products, their applicability is limited in ungauged areas that require FLUXNET data. This paper employs an Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) method to estimate the uncertainty of Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FLDAS), and Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) AET product without requiring prior information. Subsequently, a merged ET product is generated by combining ET estimates from three original products. Furthermore, the study quantifies the uncertainty of each individual product across different vegetation covers and then compares three original products and the Merged ET with data from 645 in situ sites. The results indicate that GLEAM covers the largest area, accounting for 39.1% based on the correlation coefficient criterion and 39.9% based on the error variation criterion. Meanwhile, FLDAS and MEP exhibit similar performance characteristics. The merged ET derived from the ETC method demonstrates the ability to mitigate uncertainty in ET estimates in North American (NA) and European (EU) regions, as well as tundra, forest, grassland, and shrubland areas. This merged ET could be effectively utilized to reduce uncertainty in AET estimates from multiple products for ungauged areas.

Objective method of predicting monsoon onset over Kerala in medium and extended range time scale using Numerical Weather Prediction models

The southwest monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) is very crucial for an Agricultural country like India hence its prediction in the extended range time scale (about 3 weeks in advance) is very useful for the Kharif season in India. As the declaration of MOK involves subjective interpretation of the forecasters, an objective method of prediction of MOK based on dynamical models could successfully avoid bogus onsets. Two objective prediction methods for MOK are developed based on the real-time extended range forecast (ERF) of rainfall measured over Kerala coast 080-120N, 740-780E and the strength and depth of the westerly wind over the Arabian Sea (050-120N, 550-750E) for the period from 2003 to 2022 are used in the first method. In addition to these 3 indices, meridional pressure gradient along the west coast of India is used in the second method with 4 indices. The MOK date is defined objectively based on these variables exceeding the thresholds in both the methods. The results indicate that the MOK forecast with four indices performed well compared to that with three indices during the whole period from 2003 to 2022 with the mean deviation days of MOK found to be 0.75 and 3.05 days respectively. Overall, the dynamically defined onset date over Kerala based on the real-time ERF indicated useful skill at least about 2–3 weeks in advance. It is also demonstrated that the district-level Multi-Model Ensemble forecast in the medium range (5 days in advance) based on 5 global models can add value to the categorical ERF of MOK for the exact forecast date of MOK.

Mathematical modeling and seasonal solar radiation variability in Nigeria’s geo-political zones: A recurrence and multifractal analysis

This article delves into the seasonal variation of solar radiation patterns across Nigeria’s four geo-political zones, exploring their complex, scale-dependent behaviors. By employing chaotic quantifiers, the study characterizes irregular and self-similar patterns, enhancing our understanding of solar radiation variability and heterogeneity. The research uniquely fits meteorological parameters onto a global solar radiation model and focuses on the underexplored nonlinear aspects within tropical regions, specifically in the Nigerian context. Utilizing daily data from ERA INTERIM satellite archives for representative stations, the study employs nonlinear time series analysis methods like recurrence plots, recurrence qualitative analysis, and multifractal spectral analysis to comprehensively explore the unpredictable behaviors observed. The quantifier spectrums play a key role in revealing intricate scaling behaviors and correlation structures among environmental variables, shedding light on patterns often concealed by conventional statistical methods. For instance, we found that solar radiation variability in the northern region increases more significantly during the dry season compared to the wet season, unlike in the southern region. Additionally, the multifractal spectral analysis revealed a higher degree of complexity in solar radiation patterns during transition periods between seasons. The findings reveal a low recurrence quantitative analysis, long right tail, and truncations at both ends of the spectrum. This suggests instability in solar radiation across different seasons and locations. Nonetheless, the results also demonstrate that solar radiation is consistently available throughout the year, which is typical of tropical regions.

Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential over South America Estimated by CMIP6 Models in the Present and Future Climate

Developing the renewable energy matrix of South America (SA) is fundamental for sustainable socioeconomic growth and mitigating climate change's adverse effects. Thus, this study estimates changes in SA's solar irradiance and solar power potential using data from eight global climate models (GCMs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6 (CMIP6). Applying statistical downscaling and bias correction with the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) technique, we evaluate projected changes in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Photovoltaic Power (PVP) outputs under different future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Historical simulations (1995–2014) are validated using ERA5 reanalysis and CLARA-A3 satellite observations. The QDM method reduces the models' systematic biases, decreasing the ensemble's errors by 50% across SA throughout the year. Regarding future decades (2020–2099), the CMIP6 ensemble shows spatial and seasonal variability in solar generation. For CSP, estimates suggest that regions traditionally favorable to solar energy generation (such as the Brazilian Northeast and portions of Chile) will maintain their suitable conditions during the 21st century, projecting a potential 1–6% increase (particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in southern Chile and most of Brazil). Concerning PVP generation, the CMIP6 ensemble projects a rise of 1–4% (mainly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the Amazonia, Midwest, and Southeast Brazilian sectors). Moreover, trend analyses projected individually by the CMIP6 GCMs converge on an increasing PVP, mainly in Brazil's Amazonia and Midwest regions. In contrast, for South Brazil, approximately 84% of the projections show a negative trend (or no trend), evidencing unfavorable or uncertain conditions for solar generation development in the region. Despite the data and processes' inherent limitations, this study yields a first analysis of statistically downscaled projections from CMIP6 for solar power generation in South America, providing valuable information for energy sector decision-makers.

Global gyrokinetic study of density gradient driven instability in tokamaks: the ubiquitous mode

The ubiquitous mode is investigated in the linear regime for the first time using a global gyrokinetic model. These modes are driven by the density gradient in trapped electron population but with mode frequency in the ion diamagnetic drift direction, in contrast to the conventional trapped electron mode. The dispersion relation is calculated along with the global mode structure. The ubiquitous mode is quite global although appears at a shorter wavelength ( 12ky2ρi2>1 ). We show that the main driving mechanism is the density gradient and the temperature gradient has only a modest effect; the mode can persist at higher temperature gradient scenarios making it another possible channel of anomalous transport. The magnetic shear reduces the growth of the mode; while the electron to ion temperature ratio has a nonmonotonic effect on the mode growth rate—growth rate increases initially for the ubiquitous branch of the mode and decreases afterwards as the conventional trapped electron mode starts dominating. The role of safety factor and toroidicity is also analyzed. Finally, a mixing length-based estimation of transport is presented.