Global Forecast Research Articles

Design of buoy observation network over the Arctic Ocean

In the Arctic, near-surface temperature affects the surface energy balance and the evolution of planetary boundary layer. Particularly in summer, due to sea-ice extent variations, the uncertainties of simulated near-surface temperature in the Arctic Ocean increase. To reduce these uncertainties, high-quality near-surface temperature observations are necessary; however, in situ observations are difficult to operate in the Arctic. Although buoys can monitor various atmospheric variables in the Arctic over longer periods compared to those of other types of in situ monitoring, the number of buoy near-surface temperature observations in the Arctic has decreased since 2018. Near-surface temperature observations by buoys need to be added and the optimal buoy observation network need to be designed to reduce the uncertainties associated with estimating near-surface temperature over the Arctic Ocean in summer. In this study, buoy observation networks to monitor near-surface temperature were designed to minimize the 24-h forecast error variances of 2-m temperature in the Arctic. To design the optimal buoy observation network, an objective algorithm for the observation network design based on an ensemble sensitivity was used. The reductions of the forecast error variances of 2-m temperature were estimated quantitatively using the ensemble sensitivity. To calculate the ensemble sensitivity, ensemble members of the initial condition and response function (i.e. forecast aspect of interest) were composed of deterministic analyses and 24-h forecast errors of 2-m temperature, respectively, which were simulated by the Global Forecast System (GFS) during July, August, September, and October from 2016 to 2019. By using long-term GFS simulations, the buoy observation network was designed in a climatological perspective. The determined optimal buoy locations were consistent with regions where both the analysis variances and forecast error variances of 2-m temperature were large. Assuming that 2-m temperature buoy observations were assimilated to ensemble members from GFS simulations at the 10 optimal buoy locations, the analysis variances of 2-m temperature were reduced by 60.48% and the 24-h forecast error variances of the temperature were reduced by 2.83% compared to the respective variances before assimilating buoy observations. Thus, after efficiently using the limited buoy resources (i.e., 10 buoys) to design the observation network, the uncertainties of the 2-m temperature simulated by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were greatly reduced in the Arctic. The optimal buoy observation network can contribute to reducing uncertainties associated with the surface energy balance, planetary boundary layer, and sea-ice properties simulated by NWP models.

Improved Gravity Wave Drag to Enhance Precipitation Simulation: A Case Study of Typhoon In-Fa

Traditional gravity wave drag parameterizations produce wind stresses that are insensitive to changing horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction (NWP), partly due to the idealized elliptical assumption. This study employs the modified subgrid-scale orography scheme based on the Fourier transform into gravity wave drag scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) to assess its impacts on simulating precipitation during the slow-moving period of Typhoon In-Fa after its landfall in Zhejiang Province, China. The simulation with the updated scheme can effectively reduce the accumulated precipitation bias of the control one and improve the simulation of precipitation distribution and intensity, especially in the hourly precipitation simulation. The improved scheme primarily influences the wind field of the low-level troposphere and also changes the convergence of the integrated water vapor transport and ascending motions related to the reduced precipitation biases. The modified scheme enhances the tendencies of the horizontal winds caused by the varying horizontal resolutions in the model, strengthening the sensitivity of the gravity wave drag across the horizontal scales. Results from medium-range forecasts indicate the modified scheme benefits the statistics scores of precipitation over China and also reduces root-mean-square errors of 2 m temperature and 10 m winds.

Evaluation of three radiation schemes of the WRF-Solar model for global surface solar radiation forecast: A case study in Egypt

This study aims to assess the performance of three different radiation schemes in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model against ECMWF fifth generation (ERA5) Reanalysis data over Egypt. Dudhia, rrtmg, and Goddard schemes were used to simulate Global Horizontal Irradiance (SR) during 2017. Sixteen stations were selected to represent the different climate conditions in Egypt. The observed SR data is only available at five stations and used to evaluate the accuracy of ERA5 and WRF output. SR data at the other eleven stations were extracted from ERA5 to evaluate the corresponding values from WRF simulation. Coefficient of determination (R2), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), monthly standard deviation (STDV) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE%) are the implemented evaluation statistical parameters in the study. The results showed that ERA5 and WRF Dudhia scheme have reliable results as compared to the observations at the five stations. Also, the WRF Dudhia scheme simulates the SR at the other eleven stations better than rrtmg, and Goddard schemes as compared to ERA5 dataset. Where, the three WRF radiation schemes overestimate the SR along the eleven stations and underestimate at Alexandria station by −0.15 KWh/m2, which may due to the weather conditions over these sites. But the Dudhia scheme over the eleven stations has the lowest MBE (<0.34 KWh/m2), RMSE (<0.58 KWh/m2), and MAPE (<−2%), with R2 more than 0.985 at most stations.

Comparison of Cloud/Rain Band Structures of Typhoon Muifa (2022) Revealed in FY‐3E MWHS‐2 Observations With All‐Sky Simulations

AbstractAll‐sky simulations of brightness temperature (TB) at Microwave Humidity Sounder‐2 (MWHS‐2) channel 15 from Fengyun‐3E (FY‐3E) are generated based on the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis for four typhoon cases. For Typhoon Muifa (2022), the MWHS‐2 TB observations have a strongest symmetric component within about 210‐km radial distances. Although much weaker, the symmetric component in the GFS all‐sky simulations compares more favorably with that of observations than the ERA5 all‐sky simulations. Due to ice scattering effects at 183.31 ± 7 GHz, spatial distribution patterns of TB observations and all‐sky simulations are quite similar to those of ice water path. The more cloud ice, the lower the TB. Deep convective systems within Muifa are captured by TB observations but not by simulations. Using an objective azimuthal‐spectral‐analysis based center‐fixing algorithm, the center positions of Typhoon Muifa can be well determined from both MWHS‐2 observations and GFS all‐sky simulations, but not from the ERA5 all‐sky TB simulations. Compared with the best track, the average center position errors for Muifa are 16.2, 24.9 and 74.4 km based on FY‐3E MWHS‐2 TB observations, the GFS all‐sky TB simulations, and the ERA5 all‐sky simulations, respectively. The conclusions of TC cloud/rain band structures and center positions of all‐sky simulations using the NCEP‐GFS analysis being better matching with those of FY‐3E MWHS‐2 observations than the ERA5 all‐sky simulations for Typhoon Muifa also hold true for three other typhoons.

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

African dust transport and deposition modelling verified through a citizen science campaign in Finland

African desert dust is emitted and long-range transported with multiple effects on climate, air quality, cryosphere, and ecosystems. On 21–23 February 2021, dust from a sand and dust storm in northern Africa was transported to Finland, north of 60°N. The episode was predicted 5 days in advance by the global operational SILAM forecast, and its key features were confirmed and detailed by a retrospective analysis. The scavenging of dust by snowfall and freezing rain in Finland resulted in a rare case of substantial mineral dust contamination of snow surfaces over a large area in the southern part of the country. A citizen science campaign was set up to collect contaminated snow samples prepared according to the scientists’ instructions. The campaign gained wide national interest in television, radio, newspapers and social media, and dust samples were received from 525 locations in Finland, up to 64.3°N. The samples were utilised in investigating the ability of an atmospheric dispersion model to simulate the dust episode. The analysis confirmed that dust came from a wide Sahara and Sahel area from 5000 km away. Our results reveal the features of this rare event and demonstrate how deposition samples can be used to evaluate the skills and limitations of current atmospheric models in simulating transport of African dust towards northern Europe.

Paired Satellite and NWP Precipitation for Global Flood Forecasting

Abstract Precipitation data are known to be the key driver of hydrological simulations. Hence, reliable quantitative precipitation estimates and forecasts are vital for accurate hydrological forecasting. Satellite-based precipitation estimates from Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM Early Run (IMERG-E) and forecasted precipitation from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) have shown values in global flood nowcasting and forecasting. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their hydrological performance let alone explored the potential value of combining them. Therefore, this study undertakes a quasi-global evaluation of their utility in real-time hydrological monitoring and 1–5-day forecasting with the Dominant River Tracing-Routing Integrated with Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Environment (DRIVE) model. The gauge-corrected IMERG Final Run precipitation estimates and corresponding hydrological simulation are used as the references. Results showed that the hit bias is the dominant error source of IMERG-E, while the false precipitation is more noticeable in GEOS-FP. In terms of hydrological performance, the GEOS-FP-driven model (DRIVE-FP) performance is close to the IMERG-E-driven model (DRIVE-E) performance on day 1, indicating that GEOS-FP could nicely fill the gap of nowcasting caused by the IMERG-E time latency. For longer lead-time forecasts, the bias tends to diminish in most regions, likely because the under- or overestimation in IMERG-E is generally offset by the distinct types of misestimation in GEOS-FP. The skillful initial hydrological conditions present outperformed forecasts in most regions, except for tropical areas where the accuracy of GEOS-FP prevails. Overall, this study provides a valuable view of the combined use of IMERG-E and GEOS-FP precipitation in the context of hydrological nowcasts and forecasts.

The Evaluation of FY-3E Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II Long-Wave Temperature Sounding Channels

Prior to assimilating hyperspectral infrared data on the FengYun (FY) satellite in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, it is necessary to identify the quality and bias characteristics of these data, especially as China’s first early-morning-orbit satellite data. Using the numerical model CMA-GFS (China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System) and the observation of FY-3E HIRAS-II (Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II), the differences between observed and simulated brightness temperatures (O-Bs) are comprehensively analyzed, with a focus on evaluating the long-wave (LW) temperature sounding channels of HIRAS-II observation in the clear sky. The results show that the O-Bs in the LW channels are between ±1.0 K, except for the CO2 absorption line peak at 667 cm−1. Only a tiny variation in O-Bs, with relative consistency, could be observed during the day, the line of dawn and dusk, and night. The difference in the standard deviations of O-Bs in the three cases is less than 0.1 K. The O-Bs of two typical channels (channels 14 and 47) in the stratosphere have disturbances at individual times, whereas the O-Bs are much more stable in time series in the tropospheric channels. The O-Bs in different channels show the characteristics of changing with the latitude, but the bias and standard deviations of O-Bs during the ascending and descending stages are not much different, except for the bias of channel 47 in low latitude. The optimal ranking of Fields of View (FOVs) in assimilation is derived from a priori analysis of O-Bs. The results demonstrate that FOV4 and FOV5 are the best in a Field of Regard (FOR) compared to all LW channels of HIRAS-II in constructions of their O-Bs and magnitude of O-B standard deviations, and they can be used as the preferred FOVs for assimilation. While the O-Bs in FOV1 and FOV2 are slightly larger, the O-Bs’ characteristics also meet the assimilation requirements and can be used as assimilation FOVs in HIRAS-II LW channels after FOV4 and FOV5 lose their efficacy.

FuXi: a cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has led to state-of-the-art ML models that have superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s high-resolution forecast (HRES), which is widely considered as the world’s best physics-based weather forecasting system. Specifically, ML models have outperformed HRES in 10-day forecasts with a spatial resolution of 0.25∘. However, the challenge remains in mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for longer effective forecasts, such as achieving comparable performance to the ECMWF ensemble in 15-day forecasts. Despite various efforts to reduce accumulation errors, such as implementing autoregressive multi-time step loss, relying on a single model has been found to be insufficient for achieving optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts at a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25∘. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation demonstrates that FuXi has forecast performance comparable to ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. FuXi surpasses the skillful forecast lead time achieved by ECMWF HRES by extending the lead time for Z500 from 9.25 to 10.5 days and for T2M from 10 to 14.5 days. Moreover, the FuXi ensemble is created by perturbing initial conditions and model parameters, enabling it to provide forecast uncertainty and demonstrating promising results when compared to the ECMWF ensemble.

Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy but does not directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. Here, we introduce GraphCast, a machine learning-based method trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables for the next 10 days at 0.25° resolution globally in under 1 minute. GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclone tracking, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Data-Driven Global Subseasonal Forecast for Intraseasonal Oscillation Components

As a challenge in the construction of a “seamless forecast” system, improving the prediction skills of subseasonal forecasts is a key issue for meteorologists. In view of the evolution characteristics of numerical models and deep-learning models for subseasonal forecasts, as forecast times increase, the prediction skill for high-frequency components will decrease, as the lead time is already far beyond the predictability. Meanwhile, intraseasonal low-frequency components are essential to the change in general circulation on subseasonal timescales. In this paper, the Global Subseasonal Forecast Model (GSFM v1.0) first extracted the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) components of atmospheric signals and used an improved deep-learning model (SE-ResNet) to train and predict the ISO components of geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) and temperature at 850 hPa (T850). The results show that the 10–30 day prediction performance of the SE-ResNet model is better than that of the model trained directly with original data. Compared with other models/methods, this model has a good ability to depict the subseasonal evolution of the ISO components of Z500 and T850. In particular, although the prediction results from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 have better performance through 10 days, the SE-ResNet model is substantially superior to CFSv2 through 10–30 days, especially in the middle and high latitudes. The SE-ResNet model also has a better effect in predicting planetary waves with wavenumbers of 3–8. Thus, the application of data-driven subseasonal forecasts of atmospheric ISO components may shed light on improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

Ensemble-based analysis of heavy rainfall–snowfall associated with mesoscale precipitation bands within an extratropical cyclone over northeastern China

This paper investigates the key synoptic-scale factors that affected the forecasting of mesoscale rainfall and snowfall and their associated uncertainties in a heavy rain–snow event in northeastern China on 18–20 November 2020, using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis based on global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The heavy precipitation event was attributed to an extratropical cyclone and experienced two stages, with the snowfall stage having a better precipitation forecast skill than the rainfall stage. The mesoscale rainfall and snowfall were caused by a mesoscale rainband over Liaoning Province and two mesoscale snowbands over Heilongjiang Province, respectively, and they showed some differences with respect to their forecast skill and related key synoptic-scale factors contributing to the precipitation centers. The precipitation amount in the two different stages was correlated significantly with the midlevel trough and sensitive to the location and intensity of the low-level vortex (surface cyclone), and particularly the low-level jets and the associated water vapor transport. However, some differences were confirmed in the two different stages: the weaker midlevel trough and accompanying weaker low-level temperature trough in the rainfall stage were related to increased precipitation because the midlevel trough was far away from the control area, while the stronger midlevel trough and accompanying stronger low-level temperature trough were associated with increased precipitation in the snowfall stage. In addition to the synoptic-scale low-level jet (SLLJ), the precipitation in the rainfall stage was also affected by a boundary layer jet (BLJ) over the ocean, while only SLLJs were present in the snowfall stage. The uncertainty of the precipitation forecast was derived mainly from the uncertainty in the strength and location of the SLLJs and BLJ. Notably, the intensity of northeasterly winds west of the low-level vortex may affect the predictability of heavy snowfall.

IoT-based wireless data acquisition and control system for photovoltaic module performance analysis

The development of photovoltaic (PV) technology has led to an increasing demand for efficient and reliable monitoring systems that can ensure the optimal performance of PV modules. In particular, remote monitoring systems are critical for PV systems installed in distant locations where manual monitoring is difficult and expensive. In this article, we introduce a low-cost wireless monitoring system that employs NodeMCU boards, Raspberry Pi, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to monitor and analyze the operational and environmental data of PV modules. By using free and open-source software packages including MQTT Mosquitto Broker, InfluxDB, Node-RED, and Grafana, the system can collect, store, and visualize data, offering an effective means of studying a PV system performance from anywhere. The proposed system is found to work efficiently under different testing conditions; providing precise measurements for different parameters, including voltage, current, power, ambient temperature, humidity, panel temperature, PV coolant temperature at inlet and outlet, and spectral irradiance. In addition to the data collected by the set of sensors, the system provides another source of environmental data using a web-based service called "OpenWeatherMap" that provides a complete global forecast. Alerts and thresholds have been successfully implemented in our system, providing an added advantage of being able to detect and respond to any anomalies in the collected data. Furthermore, the system provides two operational controls: wireless ON/OFF control and wireless control of a servo motor which can be utilized in various applications improving overall system performance.

On the use of consistent bias corrections to enhance the impact of AeolusLevel‐2B Rayleigh winds on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global forecast skill

AbstractThe operational Aeolus Level‐2B (L2B) horizontal line‐of‐sight (HLOS) retrieved Rayleigh winds, produced by the European Space Agency (ESA), utilize European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) short‐term forecasts of temperature, pressure, and horizontal winds in the Rayleigh–Brillouin and M1 correction procedures. These model fields or backgrounds can contain ECMWF model‐specific errors, which may propagate to the retrieved Rayleigh winds. This study examines the sensitivity of the retrieved Rayleigh winds to the changes in the model backgrounds, and the potential benefit of using the same system, in this case the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Finite‐Volume Cubed Sphere Global Forecast System (FV3GFS), for both the corrections and the data assimilation and forecast procedures. It is shown that the differences in the model backgrounds (FV3GFS minus ECMWF) can propagate through the Level‐2B horizontal line‐of‐sight Rayleigh wind retrieval process, mainly the M1 correction, resulting in differences in the retrieved Rayleigh winds with mean and standard deviation of magnitude as large as 0.2 m·s−1. The differences reach up to 0.4, 0.6, and 0.7 m·s−1 for the 95th, 99th, and 99.5th percentiles of the sample distribution with maxima of ∼1.4 m·s−1. The numbers of the large differences for the combined lower and upper 5th, 1st, and 0.5th percentile pairs are ∼6,100, 1,220, and 610 between 2.5 and 25 km height globally per day respectively. The ESA‐disseminated Rayleigh wind product (based on the ECMWF corrections) already shows a significant positive impact on the FV3GFS global forecasts. In the observing system experiments performed, compared with the ESA Rayleigh winds, the use of the FV3GFS‐corrected Rayleigh winds lead to ∼0.5% more Rayleigh winds assimilated in the lower troposphere and show enhanced positive impact on FV3GFS forecasts at the day 1–10 range but limited to the Southern Hemisphere.

A robust error correction method for numerical weather prediction wind speed based on Bayesian optimization, variational mode decomposition, principal component analysis, and random forest: VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0)

Abstract. Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for the safe and efficient utilization of wind resources. However, current single-value deterministic numerical weather prediction methods employed by wind farms do not adequately meet the actual needs of power grid dispatching. In this study, we propose a new hybrid forecasting method for correcting 10 m wind speed predictions made by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our approach incorporates variational mode decomposition (VMD), principal component analysis (PCA), and five artificial intelligence algorithms: deep belief network (DBN), multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (lightGBM), and the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). We first predict wind speeds using the WRF model, with initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS). We then perform two sets of experiments with different input factors and apply BOA optimization to tune the four artificial intelligence models, ultimately building the final models. Furthermore, we compare the aforementioned five optimal artificial intelligence models suitable for five provinces in southern China in the wintertime: VMD-PCA-RF in December 2021 and VMD-PCA-lightGBM in January 2022. We find that the VMD-PCA-RF evaluation indices exhibit relative stability over nearly a year: the correlation coefficient (R) is above 0.6, forecasting accuracy (FA) is above 85 %, mean absolute error (MAE) is below 0.6 m s−1, root mean square error (RMSE) is below 0.8 m s−1, relative mean absolute error (rMAE) is below 60 %, and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) is below 75 %. Thus, for its promising performance and excellent year-round robustness, we recommend adopting the proposed VMD-PCA-RF method for improved wind speed prediction in models.

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Estimating Full Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Transfer with Neural Networks of Varying Complexity

Abstract Radiative transfer (RT) is a crucial but computationally expensive process in numerical weather/climate prediction. We develop neural networks (NN) to emulate a common RT parameterization called the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM), with the goal of creating a faster parameterization for the Global Forecast System (GFS) v16. In previous work we emulated a highly simplified version of the shortwave RRTM only—excluding many predictor variables, driven by Rapid Refresh forecasts interpolated to a consistent height grid, using only 30 sites in the Northern Hemisphere. In this work we emulate the full shortwave and longwave RRTM—with all predictor variables, driven by GFSv16 forecasts on the native pressure–sigma grid, using data from around the globe. We experiment with NNs of widely varying complexity, including the U-net++ and U-net3+ architectures and deeply supervised training, designed to ensure realistic and accurate structure in gridded predictions. We evaluate the optimal shortwave NN and optimal longwave NN in great detail—as a function of geographic location, cloud regime, and other weather types. Both NNs produce extremely reliable heating rates and fluxes. The shortwave NN has an overall RMSE/MAE/bias of 0.14/0.08/−0.002 K day−1 for heating rate and 6.3/4.3/−0.1 W m−2 for net flux. Analogous numbers for the longwave NN are 0.22/0.12/−0.0006 K day−1 and 1.07/0.76/+0.01 W m−2. Both NNs perform well in nearly all situations, and the shortwave (longwave) NN is 7510 (90) times faster than the RRTM. Both will soon be tested online in the GFSv16. Significance Statement Radiative transfer is an important process for weather and climate. Accurate radiative transfer models exist, such as the RRTM, but these models are computationally slow. We develop neural networks (NNs), a type of machine learning model that is often computationally fast after training, to mimic the RRTM. We wish to accelerate the RRTM by orders of magnitude without sacrificing much accuracy. We drive both the NNs and RRTM with data from the GFSv16, an operational weather model, using locations around the globe during all seasons. We show that the NNs are highly accurate and much faster than the RRTM, which suggests that the NNs could be used to solve radiative transfer inside the GFSv16.

Downscaled seasonal forecasts for the California Current System: Skill assessment and prospects for living marine resource applications

Ocean forecasting is now widely recognized as an important approach to improve the resilience of marine ecosystems, coastal communities, and economies to climate variability and change. In particular, regionally tailored forecasts may serve as the foundation for a wide range of applications to facilitate proactive decision making. Here, we describe and assess ~30 years of retrospective seasonal (1–12 month) forecasts for the California Current System, produced by forcing a regional ocean model with output from a global forecast system. Considerable forecast skill is evident for surface and bottom temperatures, sea surface height, and upper ocean stratification. In contrast, mixed layer depth, surface wind stress, and surface currents exhibit little predictability. Ocean conditions tend to be more predictable in the first half of the year, owing to greater persistence for forecasts initialized in winter and dynamical forecast skill consistent with winter/spring influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for forecasts initialized in summer. Forecast skill above persistence appears to come through the ocean more than through the atmosphere. We also test the sensitivity of forecast performance to downscaling method; bias correcting global model output before running the regional model greatly reduces bias in the downscaled forecasts, but only marginally improves prediction of interannual variability. We then tailor the physical forecast evaluation to a suite of potential ecological applications, including species distribution and recruitment, bycatch and ship-strike risk, and indicators of ecosystem change. This evaluation serves as a template for identifying promising ecological forecasts based on the physical parameters that underlie them. Finally, we discuss suggestions for developing operational forecast products, including methodological considerations for downscaling as well as the respective roles of regional and global forecasts.

Predictability of the Most Long‐Lived Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023) During Its Westward Journey Through the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study aimed to explore the predictability of the most long‐lived tropical cyclone (TC) Freddy in 2023 while it traversed westward across the southern tropical Indian Ocean during the first 18 days of its existence. Global ensemble forecasts revealed southward track deflection and intensity underestimation of Freddy. We identified three key factors contributing to the limited predictability of Freddy, which are associated with the Mascarene High, Storm Dingani, and Freddy itself. The large track errors of Freddy can be attributed to the underestimated strength of the Mascarene High, the more northeastern position of Dingani, and the presence of excessively large or small sizes of Freddy. These findings were further validated through a high‐resolution regional model. Specifically, Freddy's track and intensity most closely matched the observations when these three factors were most closely represented. It underscores the pivotal role played by the interaction between TCs and multi‐scale systems in TC forecasts.

Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. The retrospective evaluation of our models shows that simple transmission models calibrated using routine disease surveillance data can reliably capture the epidemic trajectory in multiple countries. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.