Global Factors Research Articles

Behavior of an Embankment on Stone Column-Reinforced Soft Soil

Abstract Reinforcing soft soils with good drainage and load-bearing material is a common practice in the construction of embankments. Stone columns are among the granular materials that accelerate consolidation settlements due to their high drainage capacities. This study aims to investigate the behavior of an embankment on stone column-reinforced soft soil. The embankment was analyzed using the Plaxis 2D Finite Element Method. The columns were converted into equivalent walls using the plane strain conversion method. This method was validated with field measurement results from previous studies and showed good agreement. According to the research findings, stone columns significantly reduced deformations and improved consolidation. For instance, the ultimate settlement was decreased from 54.3 mm to 33.1 mm for 10% and 20% area replacement ratios, respectively. As the safety analysis verified, basal geosynthetics contributed substantially to the embankment’s stability. Furthermore, the safety factor values increased for all stages of the construction, and the global safety factor increased at the end of the construction. Stone columns and basal geogrid-reinforced soft soil can reduce settlement and increase the stability of an embankment.

Green consumer behaviour influences Indonesian palm oil sustainability

Palm oil businesses affect livelihoods and the environment, particularly forests, with land-use change and climate change impacts. This research aimed to develop a model for understanding the influences of global trade and political economy factors on palm oil sustainability and livelihoods in Indonesia. It combined systematic review with structural equation modelling through a model called POPETS (Palm Oil Political Economy and Trade Structural equation model). The study revealed that palm oil sustainability is defined by employment opportunities and no deforestation, while livelihoods are defined by household income. Trade and political economy factors (structures, institutions and actors) significantly influence the sustainability of palm oil. Trade has indirect effects on sustainability and livelihoods, while actors have a direct effect on sustainability. There is also a positive correlation between sustainability and livelihoods. These findings suggest the importance of synergizing global trade effects and national government roles to advance palm oil sustainability in the producing countries.

Effects of hearing intervention on cognitive decline: Results of the Aging and Cognitive Health Evaluation in Elders (ACHIEVE) randomized trial

AbstractBackgroundHearing loss is associated with greater cognitive decline and incident dementia. Whether hearing intervention could reduce cognitive decline in older adults with hearing loss is unknown.MethodThe ACHIEVE study is a randomized trial (NCT03243422) of 70‐84 year‐old adults with untreated hearing loss and free from substantial cognitive impairment that took place at four U.S. sites. Participants were recruited from two study populations: 1) a group of adults participating in a longstanding observational study of cardiovascular health (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study), and 2) a group of healthy de novo community volunteers. Participants were randomised (1:1) to hearing intervention (HI; audiological counseling and provision of hearing aids) or a successful aging health education control intervention (SA; sessions with a health educator on chronic disease prevention). The primary intention‐to‐treat endpoint was 3‐year change in a global cognition standardized factor score from a comprehensive neurocognitive battery.Result977 participants (238 ARIC, 739 de novo) underwent randomisation; 490 were assigned to HI and 487 to SA control. Participants from ARIC were older, had more risk factors for cognitive decline, and had lower baseline cognitive scores than the de novo group. In the primary analysis combining the ARIC and de novo groups, 3‐year cognitive change (in S.D. units) was not significantly different between HI and SA control (HI: ‐0·200 [95% CI: ‐0·256,‐0·144]; SA: ‐0·202 [‐0·258,‐0·145]; Difference 0·002 [‐0·077,0·081],p = 0·96). However, prespecified analyses demonstrated significant differences in the effect of HI on cognitive change between the ARIC and de novo group (p interaction = 0·010). In the ARIC group, HI was associated with a 48% reduction in 3‐year cognitive change compared to SA control (HI: ‐0·211 [‐0·349,‐0·073]; SA: ‐0·402 [‐0·536, ‐0·267]; Difference 0·191 [0·022,0·360,p = 0·027]). In the de novo group, cognitive change was not significantly different between HI and SA control (HI: ‐0·213 [‐0·277,‐0·148]; SA: ‐0·151 [‐0·215,‐0·087]; Difference ‐0·061 [‐0·151,0·028,p = 0·18]). The rate of cognitive change among control participants was observed to be 2.7‐fold faster in the ARIC versus de novo group.ConclusionHearing intervention may have a significant effect on reducing cognitive change over 3 years in populations of older adults at increased risk for cognitive decline.

Drivers of soil microbial and detritivore activity across global grasslands

Covering approximately 40% of land surfaces, grasslands provide critical ecosystem services that rely on soil organisms. However, the global determinants of soil biodiversity and functioning remain underexplored. In this study, we investigate the drivers of soil microbial and detritivore activity in grasslands across a wide range of climatic conditions on five continents. We apply standardized treatments of nutrient addition and herbivore reduction, allowing us to disentangle the regional and local drivers of soil organism activity. We use structural equation modeling to assess the direct and indirect effects of local and regional drivers on soil biological activities. Microbial and detritivore activities are positively correlated across global grasslands. These correlations are shaped more by global climatic factors than by local treatments, with annual precipitation and soil water content explaining the majority of the variation. Nutrient addition tends to reduce microbial activity by enhancing plant growth, while herbivore reduction typically increases microbial and detritivore activity through increased soil moisture. Our findings emphasize soil moisture as a key driver of soil biological activity, highlighting the potential impacts of climate change, altered grazing pressure, and eutrophication on nutrient cycling and decomposition within grassland ecosystems.

The Predictive Power of Macroeconomic Variables on the Indian Stock Market Utilizing an Ann Model Approach: An Empirical Investigation Based on BSE Sensex

Abstract Research background The paper focuses on the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for forecasting time series data of the stock market since ANNs are dynamic and are more capable of handling complex data sets in comparison to conventional forecasting techniques such as regression, Logistic regression, and have massive potential for the prediction of stock market prices. Purpose Artificial neural networks are an effective method for forecasting time series. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the closing price of the BSE Sensex using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Research methodology The study uses nine input variables, including macroeconomic and global stock market factors, to estimate the BSE Sensex using scaled conjugate gradient algorithm artificial neural networks (SCGANNs) and Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANN). Results As per the empirical results of the study, the ANN model can forecast the closing values of the BSE Sensex with a Bayesian Regularization (BR) method with an accuracy of over 99 percent, thus leading to significant implications for domestic institutional investors (DIIs), foreign institutional investors (FIIs), investment houses, and so on. This study adds more value to the existing literature by proving that the BRANN models outperform SCGANN in stock market forecasting. Novelty This is the first study to employ macroeconomic variables as input variables for predicting the Indian stock market using ANN. The study highlights the ANN model’s forecasting potential, giving investors robust and accurate stock value prediction capabilities.

Управління венчурними структурами в умовах невизначеності

The study examines the problem of managing venture structures in conditions of uncer-tainty, where modern companies face unprecedented change and risk. The relevance of the re-search is due to global transformations, geopolitical conflicts, technological innovations and un-expected market changes. The article discusses strategies for managing venture structures in conditions of uncertainty, including adaptation to changes, portfolio diversification, and in-volvement of experts. The role of technological innovations in venture management is also con-sidered, including their impact on opportunity identification and process automation. Adaptive leadership is a crucial aspect of managing enterprises under conditions of uncertainty. This in-volves being flexible and responsive to the business's changing environment and challenges. The study's general conclusions indicate the need for flexible management strategies, the use of modern technologies and the development of new investment models to succeed in conditions of constant uncertainty and change. It is noted that the effective management of venture struc-tures is essential for the country's post-war recovery because it can become a catalyst for rapid economic recovery and stimulation of innovation. Venture capital contributes to the financing and development of innovative enterprises and technologies that can revolutionize various areas of the economy. This includes the development of new products, services and technologies that help solve social and economic problems. Creating a favorable ecosystem for venture capital can lead to the growth of innovative entrepreneurship and the attraction of important invest-ments in promising industries. This, in turn, contributes to the creation of new jobs, the devel-opment of new technological industries and the restoration of economic potential after a period of conflict and war. An important advantage is also the ability of venture capital to attract for-eign investments and contribute to the support of national innovative projects. This approach contributes to economic recovery and has a positive effect on the further development of the country. Prospects for further research include the analysis of the impact of global crises, regu-latory aspects and psychological factors on venture management and the expansion of coopera-tion between large corporations and startups in this context.

Comparative Analysis of Unemployment Rates Between China and India

This study examines the unemployment rate in two major developing economies, China and India, to forecast their economic trajectories. Through an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, this study analyzes historical trends and potential future scenarios that can help make informed decisions for sustainable growth. By evaluating the literature on the labor market, informal economy, demographics, and the impact of technology, this study enriches the understanding of these intricate economies. The study concludes that Chinas unemployment rate has remained stable, indicating an equilibrium, while Indias unemployment rate has fluctuated slightly, which may be due to health crises, technological shifts, and global trade dynamics. This study emphasizes the role of domestic policies, demographic and global economic factors in influencing unemployment rates. Overall, this study provides insights into the dynamics of unemployment in China and India, providing a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and businesses to understand the complexities of these economies.

Decadal changes in vegetation cover within coastal dunes at the regional scale in Victoria, SE Australia

Vegetation is a critical boundary condition for the stability of coastal dunes. Globally, vegetation cover is increasing on the coast with many dunes being stabilised in the past decades. This pattern is driven by site-specific (e.g., coastal management) and global (e.g., climatic changes) factors. This study examines changes in dune vegetation during the past six decades at the regional scale along the southeast coast of Australia to understand the relative importance of the climate and human interventions in vegetation cover change. A total area of >31,000 ha, comprising 53% of the open coast of Victoria was studied. Since the 1960's, a general trend of dune stabilisation and coastal greening has occurred with total vegetation cover increasing from 61% to 84% coverage until 2020. At the regional scale, the increase in vegetation cover has been primarily driven by both climatic-related drivers, such as rising temperature, elevating CO2 concentrations and declining windiness, and state-wide coastal management interventions (e.g., marram grass planting, fencing, fire control, grazing removal). The only areas where there was a decline in total area of vegetation was where substantial coastal recession had occurred. The decrease in vegetation is a result of a loss of land area rather than a loss of plant biomass over the dunefields. Therefore, it is considered that the overall decadal changes in both climate and coastal management are forcing the dunes toward a more stabilised state at the regional scale. At the same time, compelling local drivers (e.g., storms and local sediment deficiency) can be the most crucial factor to regulate vegetation change and shift dune mobility at the site-specific scale.

Late Neogene terrestrial climate reconstruction of the central Namib Desert derived by the combination of U–Pb silcrete and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating

Abstract. The chronology of the Cenozoic “Namib Group” of the Namib Desert is rather poorly understood and lacks direct radiometric dating. Thus, the paleoclimate and landscape evolution of the central Namib Desert remains imprecise, complicating the detailed search for global and/or local forcing factors for the aridification of the Namib. The widespread occurrence of calcretes and silcretes in the Namib Desert allows us to apply the novel application of the U–Pb laser ablation dating technique on silcretes and calcretes to date important phases of landscape stability and to retrieve critical paleoclimatic and environmental information on desertification and its paleoclimatic variability. Microscale silcrete formation (maximum of 8 mm) due to pressure solution by expanding calcrete cementation provides the opportunity to date multiple phases (multiple generations of silcrete as growing layers or shells) of silcrete formation. Groundwater silcrete and calcrete formation occurred at our study site during the Pliocene, a period of relatively stable climate and landscape conditions under semi-arid to arid conditions. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) exposure ages from flat canyon rim surfaces indicate the cessation of groundwater calcrete formation due to incision during the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene and mark a large-scale landscape rejuvenation due to climate shifts towards more arid conditions in the Pleistocene, which can be connected to global climate patterns. This study demonstrates the feasibility of applying U–Pb laser ablation to groundwater silcrete and calcretes, discusses several important issues associated with this technique, and opens up the possibility of dating numerous sedimentary sequences containing silcretes and calcretes in arid environments. In particular, the use of silcretes (as described above) reduces potential effects of detrital components and bulk signal measurements by using massive calcretes. Our study redefines and improves the generally accepted Late Cenozoic chronostratigraphy of the Namib Desert (Miller, 2008).

Temperature and shear-rate effects in two pure clays: Possible implications for clay landslides

Temperature fluctuations in landslide shear zones can originate from heat exchanges with deeper layers as well as with the atmosphere through the landslide body. Shallow landslides (depth <10 m) are especially subject to seasonal temperature oscillations and rapid climatic changes. Various hydro-mechanical properties of clayey soils are sensitive to changes in temperature. Few studies suggested that the residual shear strength may vary significantly even in temperature ranges typical of shallow layers in temperate and warm regions. Here, we verified the response of two pure clays (Ca-bentonite, kaolin) to shearing at temperatures up to ∼55 °C under various normal stresses (50–150 kPa) and shear rates (0.018–44.5 mm/min) by equipping a ring-shear device with a temperature-control system. Then, we performed experiments on an ideal slope to quantify the extent to which ground temperature can condition the stability of clay slopes, across the seasons and under prolonged warming. Considering the largest effects evaluated experimentally (change in residual shear strength by ±1.5 %/°C), we determined changes in global factor of safety by ∼20 % for rotational slides ∼6 m deep, solely attributable to seasonal heating-cooling. Warming of 5 °C over decades would change the stability condition by an additional ±7 %. Although these results were obtained under simplified geometry and boundary conditions, without considering changes in triggers, preconditions, and effects of other thermo-hydro-mechanical couplings, they provide an upper bound to the role of the temperature-dependence of the residual shear strength on the factor of safety. We argue that this role should not be neglected in slope stability and landslide hazard assessments in clay-rich soils, thus warranting in-depth experimental analyses and advanced modelling.

LINGUISTIC GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MODERN SPANISH LANGUAGE POLICY

The article examines the phenomenon of globalization and its impact on the language policy of Spain. The processes of neologization underlying the Spanish language policy are analyzed. It is shown how, in the conditions of the dominant role of the English language, the national languages of Spain resist external pressure in the form of Anglicisms.&#x0D; Purpose. The purpose of the study is a theoretical and practical study of the influence of factors of linguistic globalization on the official languages of Spain.&#x0D; Materials and methods. The texts of modern periodicals of Spain (El País, El Mundo, El ABC, LA Vanguardia) and the data of the explanatory dictionary of the Spanish Academy (Diccionario Real Academia Española) served as practical material for the study. To achieve the purpose of the study, the following methods were applied: analysis of scientific literature, continuous sampling method, method dictionary definitions, descriptive method.&#x0D; Results. As a result of the study, it was revealed that Spanish national languages, influenced by the factors of linguistic globalization and the English language dominating in the international arena, are changing the familiar picture of the world in all spheres of life of modern Spanish society. The analysis of the data obtained showed that the Spanish language policy is not effective enough in the context of the current processes of linguistic globalization. Despite the active resistance to foreign-language borrowings and neologisms of foreign origin, Spanish language policy institutes do not have time to develop appropriate traditional equivalents.&#x0D; Practical implications. The results of the study can be used in lecture courses on lexicology, lexicography, and linguistics, as well as in practical classes on the lexicology of the Spanish language.

Volatility Analysis of Indian Banking Sector using Bollinger Bands

This research paper aims to analyze the bank volatility in India by examining various factors that contribute to fluctuations in the Indian banking sector. The study investigates the impact of regulatory reforms, macroeconomic indicators, financial stability, and global factors on bank volatility. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset covering a period of one year i.e (01-04-2022 to 31-03-2023) to provide an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of bank volatility in India. We have used Bollinger bands to understand the volatility of three premier banks in India namely, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and STATE BANK OF INDIA in Indian stock market. The findings of this study will contribute to the existing literature on banking in emerging markets, understand the factor of volatility in present times and will also provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the Indian banking sector.

Global Prevalence and Factors Associated with Frailty among Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Frailty may increase the risk of adverse outcomes and the presence of comorbidities in hypertension. Understanding the prevalence of frailty in older adults with hypertension is of great importance, whereas estimates of the prevalence of frailty in this population vary greatly. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled prevalence of frailty and prefrailty among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension, and to examine the risk factors associated with (pre)frailty in this population. PubMed, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and CINAHL were searched from the inception to May 10, 2023. Investigators assessed eligibility, extracted data, and evaluated methodological quality. The pooled prevalence of frailty and prefrailty was calculated using the random-effects model. Meta-regression analysis and subgroup analysis were conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken by the leave-one-out method and by removing studies with moderate/high risk of bias. The Mantel-Haenszel or inverse variance method was used to estimate risk factors of frailty. A total of 14 studies met the inclusion criteria, involving 185,249 participants. The pooled prevalence in older adults with hypertension was 23% (95% CI 0.09-0.36) for frailty and 46% (95% CI 0.38-0.54) for prefrailty. The pooled prevalence of frailty was greater in studies with a higher proportion of females (24%, 95% CI 0.05-0.50), using multidimensional tools to define frailty (30%, 95% CI 0.10-0.51) and conducted in Western Pacific (27%, 95% CI 0.17-0.39). Age, female sex, depression, and previous hospitalizations were risk factors of frailty among older adults with hypertension. Frailty and prefrailty are prevalent in community-dwelling older adults with hypertension, and limited risk factors are identified. This implicates the importance of frailty assessment integrated into the routine primary care for older adults with hypertension in community settings as well as the understanding of potential factors.

An iteration-free hierarchical method for the energy management of multiple-microgrid systems with renewable energy sources and electric vehicles

Recent trends in the increasing penetration of renewable energy generation and the increasingly massive integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into multiple-microgrid (MMG) systems pose tremendous challenges to the effective energy management of these systems. However, the solutions of current energy management methods have the disadvantage of excessively limited robustness against uncertain fluctuations in renewable energy generation, and existing hierarchical EV scheduling methods are solved via an iterative process that is prohibitively time-consuming for real-time practical applications. This work addresses the abovementioned issues by constructing an improved data-driven polyhedral uncertainty set based on modified self-organizing feature map neural networks that perform data clustering. In addition, an iteration-free hierarchical framework is proposed for conducting the tri-layer energy management of MMGs with the massive integration of EVs. Specifically, the global positive power factor of EV aggregation is proposed to formulate a set of constraints into the upper-layer model of the tri-layer framework, which can guarantee the feasibility of the middle-and-lower layer models. The value of this factor is determined using a multi-objective optimization algorithm that makes a trade-off between the feasible range of the output of EV aggregators and the degree to which the trip demands of EVs are violated. The superiority and effectiveness of the proposed iteration-free robust hierarchical energy management method for MMGs are verified via simulations involving a practical MMG under high penetrations of renewable energy generation and massive integration of EVs.

Volatility spillovers across Russian oil and gas sector. Evidence of the impact of global markets and extraordinary events

This paper provides empirical evidence on the evolution of the impact of external shocks on the volatility connectedness of Russian oil and gas companies’ stock prices. We examine how the spillover structure has changed following the outbreak of COVID-19, as well as under the impact of the 2022–2023 events.We have extended the Diebold–Yilmaz approach to calculate conditional connectivity measures adjusted for the influence of global factors and unexpected shocks caused by extraordinary events.We use an augmented vector autoregressive model (VARX) to evaluate the adjusted conditional connectivity measures. The dynamics of connectivity indices are analyzed using the moving window method for VAR and VARX models, as well as using a dynamic model with time-varying coefficients (TVP-VAR). The comparison of adjusted and unadjusted connectivity measures allows us to draw conclusions about the impact of changes in foreign financial markets as well as shocks caused by extraordinary events on connectedness structure.We found that measures of conditional connectivity change much more slowly than unconditional ones. Our results support the hypothesis that essential part of the fluctuation of Russian oil and gas connectedness indices can be explained by exposure to unexpected shocks and global economic and political factors. Accordingly, the transformation of the network structure of risk transfer occurs quite smoothly, without sharp jumps and takes a considerable amount of time.

Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle

AbstractWe studied how the effect of global and domestic factors on capital flows towards emerging market economies has changed in the last 25 years. We find that both the global financial crisis and the so‐called “taper tantrum” (TT) event, defined as the point in time when investors perceived the end of the US Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy, triggered changes in the sensitivity of capital inflows to their main drivers. In particular, we provide evidence that international investors devoted growing attention to global factors. Moreover, we show that the TT marked the beginning of a new phase, characterized by increased sensitivity to both global conditions and government borrowing by recipient countries.

Violation of territorial integrity as a tool for waging long-term hybrid warfare (against the backdrop of power games in the South Caucasus region)

This paper seeks to examine the violation of territorial integrity as a stage of hybrid warfare. Grounded in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, this study analyses nations’ foreign policy strategies considering both global and domestic factors. Employing primarily qualitative research, this study concentrates on a case study of the South Caucasus region. Against the backdrop of the war which broke out in the early 2022 between Russia and Ukraine, the preservation of territorial integrity emerges as an imperative aspect of national security policy. Despite the longstanding recognition of territorial integrity as a fundamental tenet of international law over the centuries, this war has galvanised all nations with regard to the violation of territorial integrity. The paper delineates the principles of territorial integrity vis-à-vis the national security of the South Caucasus countries, substantiating the assertion that violation of the territorial integrity of the particular countries in this region serves the interests of external actors, either directly or indirectly, and is employed as a strategic tool in the pursuit of protracted hybrid warfare.

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle

Abstract We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy. The global financial cycle is a dollar cycle.

The structure of the Symptom Checklist-90-Revised: Global distress, Somatization, Hostility, and Phobic Anxiety scales are reliable and robust across community and clinical samples from four European countries

While the reliability of SCL-90-R subscales is often questioned, five relatively recent European studies have examined the factor structure of SCL-90-R using a bifactor model and concluded that most of these subscales are reliable. However, examination of their results shows that three subscales, Somatization, Hostility, and Phobic Anxiety, consistently had significantly higher reliability than the other six across clinical and community samples recruited in three very different European countries, Greece, Hungary, and the Netherlands. The objective of this study was to examine whether this “top-3″ would be found in a sample from a fourth European country, France. To do this, we had 696 university students (387 women, 56 %) complete the SCL-90-R and we examined the reliability of the scales of this questionnaire by testing a bifactor model using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling (ESEM). Our results confirmed that, in our sample, the three scales presented a higher reliability than the other six scales. It therefore seems that there exists, at least in the European cultural area, a stable structure of the SCL-90-R comprising a global distress factor and three reliable and robust specific factors: Somatization, Hostility, and Phobic Anxiety.

Exploration of New Digital Marketing Mode under the Background of Web3.0 Technology

In the present, the digital economy is rising strongly with an irresistible trend, and it has become a key force to reorganize global factor resources, reshape global economic structure and change global competition pattern. As the underlying technical support of various applications of digital economy, Web3.0 is completely different from web1.0 and web2.0, that is, it has a new feature of "being owned" in addition to the readable and writable features of the previous two generations of Internet. The "ownability" mentioned here means that users have the ownership of their own created data. Once users have data assets and can trade freely, it will greatly stimulate their subjective initiative and creativity, thus giving birth to various new digital economic forms. Digital marketing is usually an important starting point for the success of digital transformation of enterprises. In the process of digital transformation, traditional enterprises often regard digital marketing as the first strategy. Digital marketing not only changes the contact mode between users and enterprises, but also can better improve the user experience, drive the upstream and downstream of the supply chain to produce efficient synergy, improve the coverage of sales activities, and effectively cope with retail scenes, optimize the shopping experience of consumers, and build a coordinated logistics system.