Global Environmental Multiscale Research Articles

Sweep interpolation: a cost-effective semi-Lagrangian scheme in the Global Environmental Multiscale model

Abstract. The interpolation process is the most computationally expensive step of the semi-Lagrangian (SL) approach for solving advection and is commonly used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It has a significant impact on the accuracy of the solution and can potentially be the most expensive part of model integration. The sweep algorithm, which was first described by Mortezazadeh and Wang (2017), performs SL interpolation with the same computational cost as a third-order polynomial scheme but at the accuracy of the fourth order. This improvement is achieved by using two third-order backward and forward polynomial interpolation schemes in two consecutive time steps. In this paper, we present a new application of the sweep algorithm within the context of global forecasts produced with Environment Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Results show that the SL scheme with sweep interpolation is computationally more efficient compared to a conventional SL scheme with fourth-order polynomial interpolation, especially when a very large number of passive tracers are advected. An additional advantage of this new approach is that its implementation in a chemical and weather forecast model requires minimum modifications of the interpolation weighting coefficients. An analysis of the computational performance for a set of theoretical benchmarks as well as a global ozone forecast experiment show that up to 15 % reduction in total wall clock time is achieved. Forecasting experiments using the global version of the GEM model and the new interpolation show that the sweep interpolation can perform very well in predicting ozone distribution, especially in the tropopause region, where transport processes play a significant role.

Evaluation of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, Version 2.1 (CanSIPSv2.1)

Abstract We evaluate the soil moisture hindcasts and the reconstruction runs giving the hindcasts initial conditions in version 2.1 of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2.1). Different strategies are used to initialize the hindcasts for the two CanSIPSv2.1 models, CanCM4i and the coupled Global Environmental Multiscale, version 5.1, (GEM5)–NEMO model (GEM5-NEMO), with contrasting impacts on the soil moisture initial conditions and forecast performance. Forecast correlation skill is decomposed into contributions from persistence of the initial anomalies and contributions not linked to persistence, with performance largely driven by the accuracy of the initial conditions in regions of strong persistence. Seasonal soil moisture correlation skill is significant for several months into the hindcasts depending on initial and target months, with contributions not linked to persistence becoming more notable at longer lead times. For the first 2–4 months, the quality of CanSIPSv2.1 ensemble mean forecasts tends to be higher on average during summer and fall and is comparable to that of the best performing model, whereas CanSIPSv2.1 outperforms the single models during spring and winter. For longer lead times, remote climate influences from the Pacific Ocean are notable and contribute to predictable soil moisture variability in teleconnected regions.

Numerical model generation of test frames for pre-launch studies of EarthCARE's retrieval algorithms and data management system

Abstract. The Earth Cloud, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite consists of active and passive sensors whose observations will be acted on by an array of retrieval algorithms. EarthCARE's retrieval algorithms have undergone pre-launch verifications within a virtual observing system that consists of 3D atmosphere–surface data produced by the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, as well as instrument simulators that when applied to NWP data yield synthetic observations for EarthCARE's four sensors. Retrieval algorithms operate on the synthetic observations, and their estimates go into radiative transfer models that produce top-of-atmosphere solar and thermal broadband radiative quantities, which are compared to synthetic broadband measurements, thus mimicking EarthCARE's radiative closure assessment. Three high-resolution test frames were simulated; each measures ∼6200 km along-track by 200 km across-track. Horizontal grid spacing is 250 m, and there are 57 atmospheric layers up to 10 mbar. The frames span wide ranges of conditions and extend over (i) Greenland to the Caribbean, crossing a cold front off Nova Scotia; (ii) Nunavut to Baja California, crossing over Colorado's Rocky Mountains; and (iii) the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which includes a mesoscale convective system. This report discusses how the test frames were produced and presents their key geophysical features. All data are publicly available and, owing to their high-resolution, could be used to simulate observations for other measurement systems.

Impact of climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario on multivariable agroclimatic indices in Western Canada from convection-permitting climate simulation

Climate change will impact crop production in Western Canada by modifying growing season conditions. Precipitation pattern changes and warmer temperatures will pose significant risks to crops. Studies have shown that multivariable agroclimatic indices can enhance climatic impact assessment on crop production. This study uses multivariable agroclimatic indices to assess how climate change may impact crop production in western Canada by the end of the 21st century. We use convection-permitting regional climate simulations for the current (CTL) and future climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) scenario based on the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to assess the impact of the climate on growing season indices. CTL and PGW are bias-corrected to the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) (GEM-CaPA) dataset using the multivariate quantile mapping method. Our study analyses Effective Precipitation (Pe), Temperature Humidity Index (THI), and Precipitation Intensity Index (PII) at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales as they apply to cool-season crops. The CTL simulation shows a good performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and the temporal variability of the selected indices in western Canada. Results show that precipitation (Effective Precipitation) will decrease by over 60 mm (40 mm), rainy days will decrease by up to 10 days, and precipitation intensities will increase across western Canada. Warming will lead to THI unit increases of about 3.5 (>5) in the prairies (northeastern parts of western Canada in June). This study’s findings can be useful in generating appropriate information to inform policy on adaptation for sustainable crop production by the end of the 21st century.

An assessment of Arctic diurnal water‐vapour cycles in Canada's weather forecast model and ERA5

AbstractThe diurnal water‐vapour cycle is a critical component of the hydrological cycle, yet it is one of the hardest components to accurately reproduce in forecast and climate models. Previous studies have shown that both forecast and climate models underrepresent the diurnal water‐vapour cycle, which leads to errors in precipitation, cloud, and radiative transfer parameters. Most diurnal cycle studies were conducted in the Tropics, and very few model evaluations of this process exist for the Arctic. Additionally, the majority of studies focus on total column water‐vapour cycles; almost none use height‐resolved measurements. In this study, we evaluate the diurnal water‐vapour cycles in Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale–High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (GEM–HRDPS) numerical weather forecast model and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) using a Vaisala preproduction differential absorption lidar (DIAL) and a co‐located Global Positioning System (GPS) located in Iqaluit, Nunavut (63.75° N, 68.55° W). Both numerical products reproduce the phase of the diurnal cycle well below 1 km year‐round. However, ERA5's diurnal amplitudes are significantly smaller than the DIAL and GPS amplitudes. GEM–HRDPS amplitudes are consistently larger in the first few hundred metres but smaller above 1 km; it also underrepresents the amplitude of the total column diurnal cycle. Neither ERA5 nor GEM–HRDPS accurately reproduce the 12‐hr component of the diurnal cycle in either the height‐resolved or total column cycles. The inability to accurately reproduce the 12‐hr component in both numerical products suggests that the representation of some underlying process is incomplete, which can impact the accuracy of precipitation and radiative transfer algorithms. In conclusion, we find that the numerical products are able to reproduce the general behaviour and shape of the cycle but still require improvement at certain altitudes.

Effect of urban heat island mitigation strategies on precipitation and temperature in Montreal, Canada: Case studies

High-resolution numerical weather prediction experiments using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model at a 250-m horizontal resolution are used to investigate the effect of the urban land-use on 2-m surface air temperature, thermal comfort, and rainfall over the Montreal (Canada) area. We focus on two different events of high temperatures lasting 2–3 days followed by intense rainfall: one is a large-scale synoptic system that crosses Montreal at night and the other is an afternoon squall line. Our model shows an overall good performance in adequately capturing the surface air temperature, dew-point temperature and rainfall during the events, although the precipitation pattern seems to be slightly blocked upwind of the city. Sensitivity experiments with different land use scenarios were conducted. Replacing all urban surfaces by low vegetation showed an increase of human comfort, lowering the heat index during the night between 2° and 6°C. Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces led to an improvement of comfort of up to 1°C during daytime, whereas adding street-level low vegetation had an improvement of comfort throughout the day of up to 0.5°C in the downtown area. With respect to precipitation, significant differences are only seen for the squall line event, for which removing the city modifies the precipitation pattern. For the large-scale synoptic system, the presence of the city does not seem to impact precipitation. These findings offer insight on the effects of urban morphology on the near-surface atmospheric conditions.

Combining Triple‐Moment Ice With Prognostic Liquid Fraction in the P3 Microphysics Scheme: Impacts on a Simulated Squall Line

AbstractThe Predicted Particle Properties (P3) bulk microphysics scheme has been recently modified to combine the two major innovations. The triple‐moment approach to represent ice, allowing for a freely evolving spectral dispersion of the size distribution, is combined with the predicted liquid fraction, which enables an explicit representation of mixed‐phase particles. The impacts of this combination are examined in the context of high‐resolution (1‐km horizontal grid spacing) simulations of an observed mid‐latitude squall line using the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model. The simulation of mixed‐phase particles results in a faster squall line propagation speed and stronger cold pool due to greater cooling from the microphysical processes of sublimation, melting and evaporation. There is a reduction in the mass of ice reaching the surface resulting from a decrease in the mean size of melting ice particles aloft with the predicted liquid fraction. Compared to the original double‐moment configuration, triple‐moment P3 configuration results in larger mean ice sizes at the surface. The reflectivity structure is improved with the new version, now with a more pronounced bright band in the melting zone with the predicted liquid fraction.

Outdoor heat stress assessment using an integrated multi-scale numerical weather prediction system: A case study of a heatwave in Montreal

More frequent and severe extreme weather events such as heatwaves are among the most serious challenges to society in coping with the changing climate. To evaluate the impacts of the heatwave on large-scale urban areas, a multi-scale weather forecasting system is designed by integrating different resolutions of the Canadian urbanized version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, cascading from 10 km to 2.5 km, and 250 m. The multi-scale model is implemented in Montreal, Canada, for modeling the 2018 heatwave. Simulation results are well-validated against measurement data, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery and ten weather stations in the city. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) map was calculated to identify vulnerable regions in the city against the heatwave. Land-use types in hotspots and coldspots are analyzed to find dominant factors in the formation of hot and cold areas. It is found that natural landscapes such as vegetation, trees, and water bodies are the dominant features of most coldspots. On the other hand, roads, parking lots, less tree covers, and industrial activities are the common land use features in the hotspots. A weak correlation is found between heat-related death locations and the outdoor UTCI map, implying that the assessment of an outdoor heatwave may not address overheated buildings and communities. This paper shows the importance of built environments – their properties and occupants' socio-demographic factors in the study of heat-related mortalities in cities.

Development of a Machine Learning Framework to Aid Climate Model Assessment and Improvement: Case Study of Surface Soil Moisture

The development of a computationally efficient machine learning-based framework to understand the underlying causes for biases in climate model simulated fields is presented in this study. The framework consists of a two-step approach, with the first step involving the development of a Random Forest (RF) model, trained on observed data of the climate variable of interest and related predictors. The second step involves emulations of the climate variable of interest with the RF model developed in step one by replacing the observed predictors with those from the climate model one at a time. The assumption is that comparing these emulations with that of a reference emulation driven by all observed predictors can shed light on the contribution of respective predictor biases to the biases in the climate model simulation. The proposed framework is used to understand the biases in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model simulated surface soil moisture (SSM) for the April–September period, over a domain covering part of north-east Canada. The grid cell-based RF model, trained on daily SSM and related climate predictors (water availability, 2 m temperature, relative humidity, snowmelt, maximum snow water equivalent) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5), demonstrates great skill in emulating SSM, with root mean square error of 0.036. Comparison of the five RF emulations based on GEM predictors with that based on ERA5 predictors suggests that the biases in the mean April–September SSM can be attributed mainly to biases in three predictors: water availability, 2 m temperature and relative humidity. The regions where these predictors contribute to biases in SSM are mostly collocated with the regions where they are shown to be the among the top three influential predictors through the predictor importance analysis, i.e., 2 m temperature in the southern part of the domain, relative humidity in the northern part of the domain and water availability over rest of the domain. The framework, without having to undertake expensive simulations with the climate model, thus successfully identifies the main causes for SSM biases, albeit with slightly reduced skill for heavily perturbed simulations. Furthermore, identification of the causes for biases, by informing targeted climate model improvements, can lead to additional reductions in computational costs.

An improved representation of aerosol mixing state for air quality–weather interactions

Abstract. We implement a detailed representation of aerosol mixing state in the Global Environmental Multiscale – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) air quality and weather forecast model. Our mixing-state representation includes three categories: one for more hygroscopic aerosol, one for less hygroscopic aerosol with a high black carbon (BC) mass fraction, and one for less hygroscopic aerosol with a low BC mass fraction. The more detailed representation allows us to better resolve two different aspects of aerosol mixing state: differences in hygroscopicity due to aerosol composition and the amount of absorption enhancement of BC due to non-absorbing coatings. Notably, this three-category representation allows us to account for BC thickly coated with primary organic matter, which enhances the absorption of the BC but has a low hygroscopicity. We compare the results of the three-category representation (1L2B, (one hydrophilic, two hydrophobic)) with a simulation that uses two categories, split by hygroscopicity (HYGRO), and a simulation using the original size-resolved internally mixed assumption (SRIM). We perform a case study that is focused on North America during July 2016, when there were intense wildfires over northwestern North America. We find that the more detailed representation of the aerosol hygroscopicity in both 1L2B and HYGRO decreases wet deposition, which increases aerosol concentrations, particularly of less hygroscopic species. The concentration of PM2.5 increases by 23 % on average. We show that these increased aerosol concentrations increase cloud droplet number concentrations and cloud reflectivity in the model, decreasing surface temperatures. Using two categories based on hygroscopicity yields only a modest benefit in resolving the coating thickness on black carbon, however. The 1L2B representation resolves BC with thinner coatings than the HYGRO simulation, resulting in absorption aerosol optical depths that are 3 % less on average, with greater differences over strong anthropogenic source regions. We did not find strong subsequent effects of this decreased absorption on meteorology.

Application of Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model for Hydrological Modeling in Mountainous Environment

As the world is changing, mainly due to climate change, extreme events such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. Considering this, the predictive modeling of flow in small mountain catchments that are particularly vulnerable to flooding is critical. Rainfall data sources such as rain gauges, meteorological radars, and satellites provide data to the hydrological model with a lag. Only numerical weather predictions can achieve this in advance, but their estimates are often subject to considerable uncertainty. This article aims to verify whether Global Environmental Multiscale numerical precipitation prediction can be successfully applied for event-based rainfall–runoff hydrological modeling. These data were verified for use in two aspects: the flow modeling and determination of antecedent moisture conditions. The results indicate that GEM data can be satisfactorily used for hydrological modeling, and particularly good simulation results are obtained when significant rainfall occurs. In addition, these data can be used to correctly estimate the AMC groups for each sub-catchment in advance, which is one of the key elements flowing into the amount of projected outflow in the catchment. It is worth noting that, according to the literature review conducted by the article’s author, this is the first published attempt to use GEM data directly in applied hydrological applications.

Summertime Assessment of an Urban-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Toronto

Urban-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems will be important tools for decision-making in and around large cities in a changing climate exposed to more extreme weather events. Such a state-of-the-art real-time system down to 250-m grid spacing was implemented in the context of the Toronto 2015 Panamerican games, Canada (PanAm). Combined with the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, attention was brought to the representation of the detailed urban landscape, and to the inclusion of sub-daily variation of the Great Lakes surface temperature. Results show a refined representation of the urban coastal environment micro-meteorology with a strong anisotropy of the urban heat island reaching about 2 °C on average for the summer season, coastal upwelling, and mesoscale features such as cumulus clouds and lake-breeze flow. Objective evaluation at the surface with a dense observational network reveals an overall good performance of the system and a clear improvement in comparison to reference forecasts at 2.5-km grid spacing in particular for standard deviation errors in urban areas up to 0.3 °C for temperature and dew point temperature, and up to 0.5 m s−1 for the wind speed, as well as for precipitation with an increased Equitable Threat Score (ETS) by up to 0.3 for the evening accumulation. The study provides confidence in the capacity of the new system to improve weather forecasts to be delivered to urban dwellers although further investigation of the initialization methods in urban areas is needed.

Regional-scale investigation of pile bearing capacity for Canadian permafrost regions in a warmer climate

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic and therefore adaptation of engineering systems for this region cannot be further delayed. However, one of the major barriers to studies focused on adapting northern engineering systems is the lack of information at the spatial and temporal scales required for engineering applications. This study investigates pile bearing capacity for selected pile configurations for the Canadian permafrost regions (Nunavut and Northwest Territories), for current and future climates, using the very first ultra-high resolution (4 km) climate change simulation developed for the region using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, for a high emission scenario.Comparison of the ultra-high-resolution GEM simulation, driven by reanalysis, with available observations confirms the model's ability in representing near-surface permafrost and related climate variables. The estimated adfreeze contribution to the total bearing capacity, for current climate, informed by the reanalysis-driven GEM simulation, for a 5-m cement pile, is found to be of the order of 15% for regions with shallow bedrock and 80% for regions with deeper bedrock. Application of the GEM climate change simulation outputs, for RCP8.5 scenario, suggest decreases to adfreeze contribution in the 5–30% range by 2040, with the largest differences noted for regions with deeper bedrock. For steel piles of same configuration, although the adfreeze contributions are only about 70% of that for cement piles, the projected relative changes are of similar magnitude.Further downscaling to 250 m resolution using the land model of GEM for the Slave Geological-Grays Bay corridor, where future developments are planned, including an all-season road, enables better estimation of bearing capacity for realistic pile scenarios such as those for bridges (in thick layer of sediments) used for river crossings. Due to the wide variation of pile materials, lengths and installation methods, site specific information can be developed from the framework developed in this study. The results of this study, including the ultra-high resolution climate change information, will thus form the basis for additional detailed investigations on climate-infrastructure interactions and climate resiliency studies.

An ensemble-variational inversion system for the estimation of ammonia emissions using CrIS satellite ammonia retrievals

Abstract. An ensemble-variational inversion system is developed for the estimation of ammonia emissions using ammonia retrievals from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) for use in the Global Environmental Multiscale – Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) chemical weather model. A novel hybrid method to compare logarithmic retrieval parameters to model profiles is presented. Inversions for the monthly mean ammonia emissions over North America were performed for May to August 2016. Inversions using the hybrid comparison method increased ammonia emissions at most locations within the model domain, with total monthly mean emissions increasing by 11 %–41 %. The use of these revised emissions in GEM-MACH reduced biases with surface ammonia observations by as much as 25 %. The revised ammonia emissions also improved the forecasts of total (fine + coarse) ammonium and nitrate, as well as ammonium wet deposition, with biases decreasing by as much as 13 %, but they did not improve the forecasts of just the fine components of ammonium and nitrate. A comparison of biases resulting from inversions using different comparison methods shows favourable results for the hybrid comparison method.

Objective evaluation of the Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) with precipitation and temperature for Iran

AbstractThe Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) is currently in operational use for data assimilation and forecasting at 25–15 km scales; regional 10 km scales over North America; and 2.5 km scales over Canada. To evaluate the GEM model for forecasting applications in Iran, global daily temperature and precipitation outputs of GEM at a 25 km scale were compared to data sets from hydrometeorological stations and the De Martonne climate classification method was used to demarcate climate zones for comparisons. GEM model outputs were compared to observations in each of these zones. The results show good agreement between GEM outputs and measured daily temperatures with Kling‐Gupta efficiencies of 0.76 for the arid, 0.71 for the semiarid, and 0.78 for the humid regions. There is also an agreement between GEM outputs and measured annual precipitation with differences of 50% for the arid, 36% for the semiarid, and 15% for the humid region. There is a ~13% systematic difference between the elevation of stations and the average elevation of corresponding GEM grid cells; differences in elevation associated with forcing data sets can be potentially corrected using environmental lapse rates. Compared with hydrometeorological data sets, the GEM model precipitation outputs are less accurate than temperature outputs, and this may influence the accuracy of potential Iranian forecasting operations utilizing GEM. The results of this study provide an understanding of the operation and limitations of the GEM model for climate change and hydro‐climatological studies.

Wind Speed Forecasts of a Mesoscale Ensemble for Large-Scale Wind Farms in Northern China: Downscaling Effect of Global Model Forecasts

To facilitate wind power integration for the electric power grid operated by the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Corporation—a major electric power grid in China—a high-resolution (of 2.7 km grid intervals) mesoscale ensemble prediction system was developed that forecasts winds for 130 wind farms in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The ensemble system contains 39 forecasting members that are divided into 3 groups; each group is composed of the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) real-time four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting model (RTFDDA) with 13 physical perturbation members, but driven by the forecasts of the GFS (Global Forecast System), GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model), and GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System), respectively. The hub-height wind predictions of these three sub-ensemble groups at selected wind turbines across the region were verified against the hub-height wind measurements. The forecast performance and variations with lead time, wind regimes, and diurnal and regional changes were analyzed. The results show that the GFS group outperformed the other two groups with respect to correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The GFS group had the most accurate forecasts in ~59% of sites, while the GEOS and GEM groups only performed the best on 34% and 2% of occasions, respectively. The wind forecasts were most accurate for wind speeds ranging from 3 to 12 m/s, but with an overestimation for low speeds and an underestimation for high speeds. The GEOS-driven members obtained the least bias error among the three groups. All members performed rather accurately in daytime, but evidently overestimated the winds during nighttime. The GFS group possessed the fewest diurnal errors, and the bias of the GEM group grew significantly during nighttime. The wind speed forecast errors of all three ensemble members increased with the forecast lead time, with the average absolute error increasing by ~0.3 m/s per day during the first 72 h of forecasts.

Development of aerosol optical properties for improving the MESSy photolysis module in the GEM-MACH v2.4 air quality model and application for calculating photolysis rates in a biomass burning plume

Abstract. The photolysis module in Environment and Climate Change Canada's online chemical transport model GEM-MACH (GEM: Global Environmental Multi-scale – MACH: Modelling Air quality and Chemistry) was improved to make use of the online size and composition-resolved representation of atmospheric aerosols and relative humidity in GEM-MACH, to account for aerosol attenuation of radiation in the photolysis calculation. We coupled both the GEM-MACH aerosol module and the MESSy-JVAL (Modular Earth Submodel System) photolysis module, through the use of the online aerosol modeled data and a new Mie lookup table for the model-generated extinction efficiency, absorption and scattering cross sections of each aerosol type. The new algorithm applies a lensing correction factor to the black carbon absorption efficiency (core-shell parameterization) and calculates the scattering and absorption optical depth and asymmetry factor of black carbon, sea salt, dust and other internally mixed components. We carried out a series of simulations with the improved version of MESSy-JVAL and wildfire emission inputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) for 2 months, compared the model aerosol optical depth (AOD) output to the previous version of MESSy-JVAL, satellite data, ground-based measurements and reanalysis products, and evaluated the effects of AOD calculations and the interactive aerosol feedback on the performance of the GEM-MACH model. The comparison of the improved version of MESSy-JVAL with the previous version showed significant improvements in the model performance with the implementation of the new photolysis module and with adopting the online interactive aerosol concentrations in GEM-MACH. Incorporating these changes to the model resulted in an increase in the correlation coefficient from 0.17 to 0.37 between the GEM-MACH model AOD 1-month hourly output and AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements across all the North American sites. Comparisons of the updated model AOD with AERONET measurements for selected Canadian urban and industrial sites, specifically, showed better correlation coefficients for urban AERONET sites and for stations located further south in the domain for both simulation periods (June and January 2018). The predicted monthly averaged AOD using the improved photolysis module followed the spatial patterns of MERRA-2 reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications – version 2), with an overall underprediction of AOD over the common domain for both seasons. Our study also suggests that the domain-wide impacts of direct and indirect effect aerosol feedbacks on the photolysis rates from meteorological changes are considerably greater (3 to 4 times) than the direct aerosol optical effect on the photolysis rate calculations.

Implementation of a semi-Lagrangian fully-implicit time integration of the unified soundproof system of equations for numerical weather prediction

AbstractAn alternate dynamical core that employs the unified equations of A. Arakawa and C.S. Konor (2009) has been developed within Environment and Climate change Canada’s GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) atmospheric model. As in the operational GEM dynamical core, the novel core utilizes the same fully-implicit two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme for time discretization while the log-pressure-based terrain-following vertical coordinate has been slightly adapted. Overall, the new dynamical core implementation required only minor changes to the existing informatics code of the GEM model and from a computational performance perspective, the new core does not incur any significant additional cost. A broad range of tests – that include both two-dimensional idealized theoretical cases and three-dimensional deterministic forecasts covering both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic scales–have been carried out to evaluate the performance of the new dynamical core. For all the tested cases, when compared to the operational GEM model, the new dynamical core based on the unified equations has been found to produce statistically equivalent results. These results imply that the unified equations can be adopted for operational numerical weather prediction that would employ a single soundproof system of equations to produce reliable forecasts for all meteorological scales of interest with negligible changes for the computational overhead.

Multi-scale snowdrift-permitting modelling of mountain snowpack

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modelling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high-mountain snowpacks. The multi-scale approach combines atmospheric data from a numerical weather prediction system at the kilometre scale with process-based downscaling techniques to drive the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) at spatial resolutions allowing for explicit snow redistribution modelling. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing-snow transport (saltation and suspension) and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation, and snowpack melt. Short-term, kilometre-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM and are downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale. In particular, a new wind-downscaling strategy uses pre-computed wind fields from a mass-conserving wind model at 50 m resolution to perturb the mesoscale HRDPS wind and to account for the influence of topographic features on wind direction and speed. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50 m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (∼1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both wind-induced and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of windblown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture lee-side flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Carbon Monoxide (CO) in the Martian Atmosphere From PFS/MEX Observations

AbstractA subset of more than 100,000 nadir measurements covering more than 7 Martian years (MY 26–MY 33) recorded in the thermal part of the Short Wavelength Channel (SWC) from the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) on board Mars Express is exploited to investigate the global distribution and the seasonal cycle of carbon monoxide (CO) on Mars. The retrieval of CO vertical profiles is successfully achieved using a methodology based on the optimal estimation but the low information content is such that we mainly discuss the variability in CO in terms of integrated columns (from the surface to 24 km) or the associated column‐averaged mixing ratio. We find a strong seasonality in CO, especially at mid and high‐latitudes, which confirms earlier work and the current knowledge of the CO2 condensation/sublimation cycles, as implemented for instance in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) general circulation model for Mars, that we use as a basis for comparison. We report a general consistency between model and observation, with a tendency of the latter to provide lower CO volume mixing ratios (VMRs), except at low latitudes. The spatial distribution of the CO column‐averaged VMR is obtained on a seasonal basis and investigated in terms of large‐scale patterns but also local peculiarities. Finally, we show that the retrieved profiles systematically present strong CO vertical gradients close to the surface in mid‐ and equatorial latitudes, likely related to the vertical sensitivity of PFS rather than real near‐surface CO enrichment.