Global Environmental Multiscale Research Articles

Multi-scale snowdrift-permitting modelling of mountain snowpack

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modelling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high-mountain snowpacks. The multi-scale approach combines atmospheric data from a numerical weather prediction system at the kilometre scale with process-based downscaling techniques to drive the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) at spatial resolutions allowing for explicit snow redistribution modelling. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing-snow transport (saltation and suspension) and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation, and snowpack melt. Short-term, kilometre-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM and are downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale. In particular, a new wind-downscaling strategy uses pre-computed wind fields from a mass-conserving wind model at 50 m resolution to perturb the mesoscale HRDPS wind and to account for the influence of topographic features on wind direction and speed. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50 m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (∼1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both wind-induced and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of windblown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture lee-side flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Carbon Monoxide (CO) in the Martian Atmosphere From PFS/MEX Observations

AbstractA subset of more than 100,000 nadir measurements covering more than 7 Martian years (MY 26–MY 33) recorded in the thermal part of the Short Wavelength Channel (SWC) from the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) on board Mars Express is exploited to investigate the global distribution and the seasonal cycle of carbon monoxide (CO) on Mars. The retrieval of CO vertical profiles is successfully achieved using a methodology based on the optimal estimation but the low information content is such that we mainly discuss the variability in CO in terms of integrated columns (from the surface to 24 km) or the associated column‐averaged mixing ratio. We find a strong seasonality in CO, especially at mid and high‐latitudes, which confirms earlier work and the current knowledge of the CO2 condensation/sublimation cycles, as implemented for instance in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) general circulation model for Mars, that we use as a basis for comparison. We report a general consistency between model and observation, with a tendency of the latter to provide lower CO volume mixing ratios (VMRs), except at low latitudes. The spatial distribution of the CO column‐averaged VMR is obtained on a seasonal basis and investigated in terms of large‐scale patterns but also local peculiarities. Finally, we show that the retrieved profiles systematically present strong CO vertical gradients close to the surface in mid‐ and equatorial latitudes, likely related to the vertical sensitivity of PFS rather than real near‐surface CO enrichment.

High-resolution hydrodynamic modelling to study year-round circulations and inter-basin exchanges in Lake Winnipeg

A new high-resolution (500 × 500 m), three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to Lake Winnipeg to study summer and winter water circulation, temperature, and ice-cover during 2016–17. The model was run with a combination of buoy-based observations and the outputs from the Global Environmental Multiscale model forcing. Four primary riverine inflows and two outflows were considered in the model. The bathymetry from a previous study by the authors was revised using a 2018 survey covering the South Basin and the Narrows. Comparisons of this new model with the previous model setup (2 km resolution) show noticeable improvements in all simulated parameters. In the Narrows, where seiche-driven flows have predominant oscillation periods of ~27 h and ~17 h, the RMSE of simulated currents is 0.1 m s−1, half of that of the previous simulations. The new model was able to reasonably simulate the spatial development of ice-cover over the lake. The ice-free period circulation results show that there are two clockwise and counterclockwise gyres in the North Basin, and a weak seasonal clockwise gyre in the South Basin. Monthly circulation patterns differ from those during short wind events due to spatiotemporal variability of wind patterns. The materials from the Red and the Winnipeg Rivers need ~50 days to reach the Narrows before transported from the South Basin to the North Basin. The daily inter-basin exchange flow oscillations during the ice-free period can range up to ~3.5 × 104 m3 s−1, while under-ice daily exchanges are always northwards with values depending on inflowing riverine discharge up to ~0.5 × 104 m3 s−1.

ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ АВТОМАТИЧЕСКОЙ ТИПИЗАЦИИ СИНОПТИЧЕСКОЙ СИТУАЦИИ ДЛЯ УСЛОВНОЙ ВЕРИФИКАЦИИ ЧИСЛЕННЫХ ПРОГНОЗОВ ПОГОДЫ В ПЕРМСКОМ КРАЕ

The article discusses the possibility of verification of short-term 2-meter air temperature forecasts with the Global Forecast System and Global Environment Multiscale numerical weather prediction models depending on the observed synoptic type (a case study of the Perm region for the period 2018–2019). As part of the study, we have developed a system of automated determination of synoptic type based on a two-stage procedure, including decomposition of mean sea level pressure fields via principal component analysis and the subsequent clustering of decomposition coefficients using K-means. It has been established that GFS forecasts are more dependent on synoptic type in summer than in winter. The decline of forecast quality, expressed in systematic underestimation of forecast temperature by 0.6°–1.2°, is noted for synoptic types associated with warm air advection.: In contrast, GEM forecasts tend to lack accuracy in winter. A sharp decrease in forecast quality has been discovered in the central area of anticyclone at night, when the forecast accuracy drops to 44%. The obtained results could be useful in operational forecasting and model postprocessing.

Adaptation of the Predicted Particles Properties (P3) Microphysics Scheme for Large-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction

AbstractA parameterization for the subgrid-scale cloud and precipitation fractions has been incorporated into the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme for use in atmospheric models with relatively coarse horizontal resolution. The modified scheme was tested in a simple 1D kinematic model and in the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model using an operational global NWP configuration with a 25-km grid spacing. A series of 5-day forecast simulations was run using P3 and the much simpler operational Sundqvist condensation scheme as a benchmark for comparison. The effects of using P3 in a global GEM configuration, with and without the modifications, were explored through statistical metrics of common forecast fields against upper-air and surface observations. Diagnostics of state variable tendencies from various physics parameterizations were examined to identify possible sources of errors resulting from the use of the modified scheme. Sensitivity tests were performed on the coupling between the deep convection parameterization scheme and the microphysics, specifically regarding assumptions in the physical properties of detrained ice. It was found that even without recalibration of the suite of moist physical parameterizations, substituting the Sundqvist condensation scheme with the modified P3 microphysics resulted in some significant improvements to the temperature and geopotential height bias throughout the troposphere and out to day 5, but with degradation to error standard deviation toward the end of the integrations, as well as an increase in the positive bias of precipitation quantities. The modified P3 scheme was thus shown to hold promise for potential use in coarse-resolution NWP systems.

On the Progressive Attenuation of Finescale Orography Contributions to the Vertical Coordinate Surfaces within a Terrain-Following Coordinate System

AbstractA modified hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate has recently been implemented within the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model that introduces separately controlled height-dependent progressive decaying of the small- and large-scale orography contributions on the vertical coordinate surfaces. The new vertical coordinate allows for a faster decay of the finescale orography imprints on the coordinate surfaces with increasing height while relaxing the compression of the lowest model levels over complex terrain. A number of tests carried out—including experiments involving Environment and Climate Change Canada’s operational regional and global deterministic prediction systems—demonstrate that the new vertical coordinate effectively eliminates terrain-induced spurious generation and amplification of upper-air vertical motion and kinetic energy without increasing the computational cost. Results also show potential improvements in precipitation over complex terrain.

Assessing 32-Day Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts in the Lake Champlain–Richelieu River Watershed

AbstractThis paper explored various configurations of the ensemble Kalman filter, the GR4J hydrological model, and the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model in order to maximize t...

Chemical Analysis of Surface-Level Ozone Exceedances during the 2015 Pan American Games

Surface-level ozone (O3) continues to be a significant health risk in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada even though precursor emissions in the area have decreased significantly over the past two decades. In July 2015, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) led an intensive field study coincident with Toronto hosting the 2015 Pan American Games. During the field study, the daily 1-h maximum O3 standard (80 ppbv) was exceeded twice at a measurement site in North Toronto, once on July 12 and again on July 28. In this study, ECCC’s 2.5-km configuration of the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) meteorological model was combined with the Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (MACH) on-line atmospheric chemistry model and the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface parameterization to create a new urban air quality modelling system. In general, the model results showed that the nested 2.5-km grid-spaced urban air quality model performed better in statistical scores compared to the piloting 10-km grid-spaced GEM-MACH model without TEB. Model analyses were performed with GEM-MACH-TEB for the two exceedance periods. The local meteorology for both cases consisted of light winds with the highest O3 predictions situated along lake-breeze fronts. For the July 28 case, O3 production sensitivity analysis along the trajectory of the lake-breeze circulation showed that the region of most efficient O3 production occurred in the updraft region of the lake-breeze front, as the precursors to O3 formation underwent vertical mixing. In this updraft region, the ozone production switches from volatile organic compound (VOC)-sensitive to NOx-sensitive, and the local net O3 production rate reaches a maximum. This transition in the chemical regime is a previously unidentified factor for why O3 surface-level mixing ratios maximize along the lake-breeze front. For the July 12 case, differences between the model and observed Lake Ontario water temperature and the strength of lake-breeze opposing wind flow play a role in differences in the timing of the lake-breeze, which impacts the predicted location of the O3 maximum north of Toronto.

Fluvial inundation parameterization in climate model and its effects on regional climate: a case study of the 2009 Red River spring flood

This study introduces a simple and newly developed fluvial inundation parameterization using high-resolution climate model and investigates its impacts on regional climate. The 2009 Red River spring flood is selected as a case study and this approach is tested with the regional climate model, Global Environment Multiscale (GEM) version 4.8 with 10 km resolution, and Canadian Digital Surface Model (CDSM) elevation (~ 20 m). To investigate the impacts of fluvial inundation on regional climate, the sensitivity experiments using different initial conditions for soil moisture are conducted with 1 km resolution through a three-step one-way nesting approach. Generally, new approach can capture the development–decay of fluvial inundation, similar to MODIS observation. The reasonable statistic values (probability of detection, 0.71; false alarm ratio, 0.26) are found on April 15–22 when occurred the largest MODIS-observed fluvial inundation. In sensitivity experiments, the increase of soil moisture by flooding can induce the decrease of albedo, leading to the increase in absorbed solar radiation energy at surface. Most of the absorbed energy is used by the latent heat flux, inducing the temperature cooling and moisture increase. These changes are larger in daytime than nighttime and are statistically significant in only 2 months (May–June) from the flooding, which contribute to the improvement of temperature simulation. The significant decrease and increase of precipitation in northeastern and southeastern regions away from the flooded region, respectively, are noted post-flooding. These changes are closely associated with the decrease and increase of moist static energy by moisture divergence and convergence, respectively.

Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins

Abstract. From 19 to 22 June 2013, intense rainfall and concurrent snowmelt led to devastating floods in the Canadian Rockies, foothills and downstream areas of southern Alberta and southeastern British Columbia, Canada. Such an event is typical of late-spring floods in cold-region mountain headwater, combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack, and represents a challenge for hydrological forecasting systems. This study investigated the factors governing the ability to predict such an event. Three sources of uncertainty, other than the hydrological model processes and parameters, were considered: (i) the resolution of the atmospheric forcings, (ii) the snow and soil moisture initial conditions (ICs) and (iii) the representation of the soil texture. The Global Environmental Multiscale hydrological modeling platform (GEM-Hydro), running at a 1 km grid spacing, was used to simulate hydrometeorological conditions in the main headwater basins of southern Alberta during this event. The GEM atmospheric model and the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system were combined to generate atmospheric forcing at 10, 2.5 and 1 km over southern Alberta. Gridded estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) were used to replace the model SWE at peak snow accumulation and generate alternative snow and soil moisture ICs before the event. Two global soil texture datasets were also used. Overall 12 simulations of the flooding event were carried out. Results show that the resolution of the atmospheric forcing affected primarily the flood volume and peak flow in all river basins due to a more accurate estimation of intensity and total amount of precipitation during the flooding event provided by CaPA analysis at convection-permitting scales (2.5 and 1 km). Basin-averaged snowmelt also changed with the resolution due to changes in near-surface wind and resulting turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt. Snow ICs were the main sources of uncertainty for half of the headwater basins. Finally, the soil texture had less impact and only affected peak flow magnitude and timing for some stations. These results highlight the need to combine atmospheric forcing at convection-permitting scales with high-quality snow ICs to provide accurate streamflow predictions during late-spring floods in cold-region mountain river basins. The predictive improvement by inclusion of high-elevation weather stations in the precipitation analysis and the need for accurate mountain snow information suggest the necessity of integrated observation and prediction systems for forecasting extreme events in mountain river basins.

High-resolution meteorological forcing data for hydrological modelling and climate change impact analysis in the Mackenzie River Basin

Abstract. Cold region hydrology is very sensitive to the impacts of climate warming. Impacts of warming over recent decades in western Canada include glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and changing patterns of precipitation, with an increased proportion of winter precipitation falling as rainfall and shorter durations of snow cover, as well as consequent changes in flow regimes. Future warming is expected to continue along these lines. Physically realistic and sophisticated hydrological models driven by reliable climate forcing can provide the capability to assess hydrological responses to climate change. However, the provision of reliable forcing data remains problematic, particularly in data-sparse regions. Hydrological processes in cold regions involve complex phase changes and so are very sensitive to small biases in the driving meteorology, particularly in temperature and precipitation, including precipitation phase. Cold regions often have sparse surface observations, particularly at high elevations that generate a large amount of runoff. This paper aims to provide an improved set of forcing data for large-scale hydrological models for climate change impact assessment. The best available gridded data in Canada are from the high-resolution forecasts of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model and outputs of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), but these datasets have a short historical record. The EU WATCH ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI) has a longer historical record but has often been found to be biased relative to observations over Canada. The aim of this study, therefore, is to blend the strengths of both datasets (GEM-CaPA and WFDEI) to produce a less-biased long-record product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA) for hydrological modelling and climate change impact assessment over the Mackenzie River Basin. First, a multivariate generalization of the quantile mapping technique was implemented to bias-correct WFDEI against GEM-CaPA at 3 h ×0.125∘ resolution during the 2005–2016 overlap period, followed by a hindcast of WFDEI-GEM-CaPA from 1979. The derived WFDEI-GEM-CaPA data are validated against station observations as a preliminary step to assess their added value. This product is then used to bias-correct climate projections from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) between 1950 and 2100 under RCP8.5, and an analysis of the datasets shows that the biases in the original WFDEI product have been removed and the climate change signals in CanRCM4 are preserved. The resulting bias-corrected datasets are a consistent set of historical and climate projection data suitable for large-scale modelling and future climate scenario analysis. The final historical product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA, 1979–2016) is freely available at the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0111 (Asong et al., 2018), while the original and corrected CanRCM4 data are available at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0162 (Asong et al., 2019).

Coupled Stratospheric Chemistry–Meteorology Data Assimilation. Part I: Physical Background and Coupled Modeling Aspects

A coupled stratospheric chemistry–meteorology model was developed by combining the Canadian operational weather prediction model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) with a comprehensive stratospheric photochemistry model from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). The coupled model was called GEM-BACH for GEM-Belgian Atmospheric CHemistry. The coupling was made across a chemical interface that preserves time-splitting while being modular, allowing GEM to run with or without chemistry. An evaluation of the coupling was performed by comparing the coupled model, refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h, against the standard offline chemical transport model (CTM) approach. Results show that the dynamical meteorological consistency between meteorological analysis times far outweighs the error created by the jump resulting from the meteorological analysis increments at regular time intervals, irrespective of whether a 3D-Var or 4D-Var meteorological analysis is used. Arguments in favor of using the same horizontal resolution for chemistry, meteorology, and meteorological and chemical analysis increments are also presented. GEM-BACH forecasts refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h were compared against independent measurements of temperature, long-lived species, ozone and water vapor. The comparison showed a relatively good agreement throughout the stratosphere except for an upper-level warm temperature bias and an ozone deficit of nearly 15%. In particular, the coupled model simulation during an ozone hole event gives better ozone concentrations than a 4D-Var chemical assimilation at a lower resolution.

Short-duration precipitation extremes over Canada in a warmer climate

Short-duration precipitation extremes are widely used in the design of engineering infrastructure systems and they also lead to high impact flash flood events and landslides. Better understanding of these events in a changing climate is therefore critical. This study assesses characteristics of short-duration precipitation extremes of 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-h durations in terms of the precipitation-temperature (P–T) relationship in current and future climates for ten Canadian climatic regions using the limited area version of the global environment multiscale (GEM) model. The GEM simulations, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis and two coupled global climate models (CanESM2 and MPI-ESM), reproduce the general observed regional P–T relationship characteristics in current climate (1981–2010), such as sub-CC (Clausius–Clapeyron) and CC scalings for the coastal and northern, and inland regions, respectively, albeit with some underestimation. Analysis of the transient climate change simulations suggests important shifts and/or extensions of the P–T curve to higher temperature bins in future climate (2071–2100) for RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, particularly for 1-h duration. Analysis of the spatial patterns of dew point depression (temperature minus dew point temperature) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) corresponding to short-duration precipitation extremes for different temperature bins show their changing relative importance from low to high temperature bins. For the low-temperature bins, short-duration precipitation extremes are largely due to high relative humidity, while for high-temperature bins, strong convection due to atmospheric instability brought by surface warming is largely responsible. The analysis thus addresses some of the key knowledge gaps related to the behavior of P–T relationship and associated mechanisms for the Canadian regions.

Coupled Stratospheric Chemistry–Meteorology Data Assimilation. Part II: Weak and Strong Coupling

We examine data assimilation coupling between meteorology and chemistry in the stratosphere from both weak and strong coupling strategies. The study was performed with the Canadian operational weather prediction Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model coupled online with the photochemical stratospheric chemistry model developed at the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, described in Part I. Here, the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s operational variational assimilation system was extended to include errors of chemical variables and cross-covariances between meteorological and chemical variables in a 3D-Var configuration, and we added the adjoint of tracer advection in the 4D-Var configuration. Our results show that the assimilation of limb sounding observations from the MIPAS instrument on board Envisat can be used to anchor the AMSU-A radiance bias correction scheme. Additionally, the added value of limb sounding temperature observations on meteorology and transport is shown to be significant. Weak coupling data assimilation with ozone–radiation interaction is shown to give comparable results on meteorology whether a simplified linearized or comprehensive ozone chemistry scheme is used. Strong coupling data assimilation, using static error cross-covariances between ozone and temperature in a 3D-Var context, produced inconclusive results with the approximations we used. We have also conducted the assimilation of long-lived species observations using 4D-Var to infer winds. Our results showed the added value of assimilating several long-lived species, and an improvement in the zonal wind in the Tropics within the troposphere and lower stratosphere. 4D-Var assimilation also induced a correction of zonal wind in the surf zone and a temperature bias in the lower tropical stratosphere.

Dimethyl sulfide and its role in aerosol formation and growth in the Arctic summer – a modelling study

Abstract. Atmospheric dimethyl sulfide, DMS(g), is a climatically important sulfur compound and is the main source of biogenic sulfate aerosol in the Arctic atmosphere. DMS(g) production and emission to the atmosphere increase during the summer due to the greater ice-free sea surface and higher biological activity. We implemented DMS(g) in the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) online air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multiscale–Modelling Air quality and CHemistry), and compared model simulations with DMS(g) measurements made in Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in July and August 2014. Two seawater DMS(aq) datasets were used as input for the simulations: (1) a DMS(aq) climatology dataset based on seawater concentration measurements (Lana et al., 2011) and (2) a DMS(aq) dataset based on satellite detection (Galí et al., 2018). In general, GEM-MACH simulations under-predict DMS(g) measurements, which is likely due to the negative biases in both DMS(aq) datasets. However, a higher correlation and smaller bias were obtained with the satellite dataset. Agreement with the observations improved when climatological values were replaced by DMS(aq) in situ values that were measured concurrently with atmospheric observations over Baffin Bay and the Lancaster Sound area in July 2014. The addition of DMS(g) to the GEM-MACH model resulted in a significant increase in atmospheric SO2 for some regions of the Canadian Arctic (up to 100 %). Analysis of the size-segregated sulfate aerosol in the model shows that a significant increase in sulfate mass occurs for particles with a diameter smaller than 200 nm due to the formation and growth of biogenic aerosol at high latitudes (>70∘ N). The enhancement in sulfate particles is most significant in the size range from 50 to 100 nm; however, this enhancement is stronger in the 200–1000 nm size range at lower latitudes (<70∘ N). These results emphasize the important role of DMS(g) in the formation and growth of fine and ultrafine sulfate-containing particles in the Arctic during the summertime.

Impact of Weak Coupling between Land and Atmosphere Data Assimilation Systems on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Deterministic Prediction System

Abstract A new ensemble-based land surface data assimilation (DA) system is coupled with the atmospheric four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation (4D-EnVar) system with the goal of improving the analyses within Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Deterministic Prediction System. Since 2001, the sequential assimilation of surface variables is used to generate the initial conditions to launch the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) coupled forecast model. The work presented here is to replace the sequential DA with an independent surface DA system, the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) assimilating screen-level observations, and to compare assimilation experiments with CaLDAS run in uncoupled and weakly coupled modes. In the uncoupled mode, CaLDAS is used to initialize the forecast without interacting with the 4D-EnVar system. In the coupled mode, the analyses generated from CaLDAS and 4D-EnVar are used to initialize the forecast model. The analyses and forecasts from uncoupled and coupled runs are evaluated against surface and radiosonde observations over different subdomains to conclude the impact of coupling CaLDAS with 4D-EnVar. Results indicate a statistically significant reduction in bias and standard deviation at the surface for screen-level temperature and dewpoint temperature on the order of 0.1 K, and in the lower troposphere between 1000 and 500 hPa on the order of 0.1 dam for geopotential height and 0.1 K for air temperature and dewpoint depression in the coupled DA runs. The positive impact persists up to 5 days over some subdomains. It is concluded that the coupled DA approach generally performs better than the uncoupled version.

Projected Changes to Mean and Extreme Surface Wind Speeds for North America Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

This study evaluates projected changes to surface wind characteristics for the 2071–2100 period over North America (NA), using four Global Environmental Multiscale regional climate model simulations, driven by two global climate models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. For the current climate, the model simulates well the climatology of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and associated wind direction over NA. Future simulations suggest increases in mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, associated with decreases in future MSLP, which results in more intense low-pressure systems situated in those regions such as the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum 3-hourly wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed, indicating that extreme wind speeds are influenced by regional level features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The simulations also suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of 3-hourly wind speed and hourly wind gusts, mainly due to increases in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum values. The variability of projected changes to both extreme wind speed and gusts indicate the need for a larger set of projections, including those from other regional models driven by many GCMs to better quantify uncertainties in future wind extremes and their characteristics.

Simulating Canadian Arctic Climate at Convection-Permitting Resolution

Inadequate representation and parameterization of sub-grid scale features and processes are one of the main sources for uncertainties in regional climate change projections, particularly for the Arctic regions where the climate change signal is amplified. Increasing model resolution to a couple of kilometers will be helpful in resolving some of these challenges, for example to better simulate convection and refined land heterogeneity and thus land–atmosphere interactions. A set of multi-year simulations has been carried out for the Canadian Arctic domain at 12 km and 3 km resolutions using limited-area version of the global environmental multi-scale (GEM) model. The model is integrated for five years driven by the fifth generation of the European Centre for medium-range weather forecast reanalysis (ERA-5) at the lateral boundaries. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of horizontal model resolution on the simulated surface climate variables. Results indicate that although some aspects of the seasonal mean values are deteriorated at times, substantial improvements are noted in the higher resolution simulation. The representation of extreme precipitation events during summer and the simulation of winter temperature are better captured in the convection-permitting simulation. Moreover, the observed temperature–extreme precipitation scaling is realistically reproduced by the higher resolution simulation. These results advocate for the use of convective-permitting resolution models for simulating future climate projections over the Arctic to support climate impact assessment studies such as those related to engineering applications and where high spatial and temporal resolution are beneficial.

A New Dynamical Core of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model with a Height-Based Terrain-Following Vertical Coordinate

AbstractA new dynamical core of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model is presented. Unlike the existing log-hydrostatic-pressure-type terrain-following vertical coordinate, the proposed core adopts a height-based approach. The move to a height-based vertical coordinate is motivated by its potential for improving model stability over steep terrain, which is expected to become more prevalent with the increasing demand for very high-resolution forecasting systems. A dynamical core with height-based vertical coordinate generally requires an iterative solution approach. In addition to a three-dimensional iterative solver, a simplified approach has been devised allowing the use of a direct solver for the new dynamical core that separates a three-dimensional elliptic boundary value problem into a set of two-dimensional independent Helmholtz problems. The issue of dynamics–physics coupling has also been studied, and incorporating the physics tendencies within the discretized dynamical equations is found to be the most acceptable approach for the height-based vertical coordinate. The new dynamical core is evaluated using numerical experiments that include two-dimensional nonhydrostatic theoretical cases as well as 25-km resolution global forecasts. For a wide range of horizontal grid resolutions—from a few meters to up to 25 km—the results from the direct solution approach are found to be equivalent to the iterative approach for the new dynamical core. Furthermore, results from the different numerical experiments confirm that the new height-based dynamical core is equivalent to the existing pressure-based core in terms of solution accuracy.

Ground-based infrared mapping of H2O2 on Mars near opposition

We pursued our ground-based seasonal monitoring of hydrogen peroxide on Mars using thermal imaging spectroscopy, with two observations of the planet near opposition, in May 2016 (solar longitude Ls = 148.5°, diameter = 17 arcsec) and July 2018 (Ls = 209°, diameter = 23 arcsec). Data were recorded in the 1232–1242 cm−1 range (8.1 μm) with the Texas Echelon Cross Echelle Spectrograph (TEXES) mounted at the 3 m Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) at the Mauna Kea Observatories. As in the case of our previous analyses, maps of H2O2 were obtained using line depth ratios of weak transitions of H2O2 divided by a weak CO2 line. The H2O2 map of April 2016 shows a strong dichotomy between the northern and southern hemispheres, with a mean volume mixing ratio of 45 ppbv on the north side and less than 10 ppbv on the south side; this dichotomy was expected by the photochemical models developed in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (LMD-MGCM) and with the recently developed Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. The second measurement (July 2018) was taken in the middle of the MY 34 global dust storm. H2O2 was not detected with a disk-integrated 2σ upper limit of 10 ppbv, while both the LMD-MGCM and the LEM models predicted a value above 20 ppbv (also observed by TEXES in 2003) in the absence of dust storm. This depletion is probably the result of the high dust content in the atmosphere at the time of our observations, which led to a decrease in the water vapor column density, as observed by the PFS during the global dust storm. GCM simulations using the GEM model show that the H2O depletion leads to a drop in H2O2, due to the lack of HO2 radicals. Our result brings a new constraint on the photochemistry of H2O2 in the presence of a high dust content. In parallel, we reprocessed the whole TEXES dataset of H2O2 measurements using the latest version of the GEISA database (GEISA 2015). We recently found that there is a significant difference in the H2O2 line strengths between the 2003 and 2015 versions of GEISA. Therefore, all H2O2 volume mixing ratios up to 2014 from TEXES measurements must be reduced by a factor of 1.75. As a consequence, in four cases (Ls around 80°, 100°, 150°, and 209°) the H2O2 abundances show contradictory values between different Martian years. At Ls = 209° the cause seems to be the increased dust content associated with the global dust storm. The inter-annual variability in the three other cases remains unexplained at this time.