Global Environmental Change Research Articles

Monitoring materialities: Anthropocene landscapes of environing technologies in the High North

An increased interest in Arctic regions as places of data generation to inform climate models, reports, and policies on environmental change has created a distinct kind of landscape, transformed by the material legacy of short and long-term monitoring and other scientific activities. Drawing from fieldwork in four key areas for environmental monitoring in the High North of Norway, Sweden, and Greenland, we investigate the intentional and unintentional materialities of environing technologies and other anthropogenic impacts that form a particular kind of Anthropocene landscape related to knowing global environmental change. We conclude that such distinctive monitoring landscapes contribute to work investigating shifting conceptualisations of heritage and the emergence of unintentional landscapes in the Anthropocene, and suggest that as co-creators of the global environment, they provide an interesting insight into the material legacies of natural scientific knowledge production.

Advances in giant clam (Tridacnidae spp.) sclerochronology and sclerochemistry

Understanding past environmental change through high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy reconstructions provides crucial baselines for understanding global environmental changes, particularly during the Quaternary Period. Such data are crucial for testing and refining climate models to enable better adaptations to current and future climate changes. Giant clams (Tridacnidae spp.), the largest bivalve mollusc in the Indo-Pacific region, possess distinctive features such as long lifespan, rapid growth, high-resolution growth patterns, wide distribution habitat, and stable shell geochemical composition. These attributes make giant clams a promising and dependable novel palaeoenvironmental archive, offering numerous available geochemical proxies. In this review, we examined preview studies on giant clams conducted for sclerochronology research, spanning publications from 1986 to 2023. The previous studies have proven that isotopic and trace elements proxies of the giant clam, including δ18O, δ13C, Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Fe/Ca, can faithfully reconstruct palaeoclimate records including sea surface temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, insolation, extreme weather events and primary productivity at ultra-high resolution. These proxies have been successfully employed for palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from the Miocene to the present across a range of locations from South Japan to Northern Australia to the Red Sea. These studies have illuminated changes in interannual climate cycles, climate variation, and human migrations over thousands to millions of years. They have generated quantitative records that are valuable for testing and refining numerical climate models, understanding the relationship between past climate cycles and future climate variability, and providing insights into human-environment interactions over time. In the end, the review also addresses the challenges and provided recommendations for future research, highlighting persisting gaps in understanding the influence of microstructure on the shell, age dating of fossil samples, uncertainty in proxies, the need for tank experiments, and access to ultra-high resolution palaeoenvironmental records.

Eocene Shark Teeth From Peninsular Antarctica: Windows to Habitat Use and Paleoceanography

AbstractEocene climate cooling, driven by the falling pCO2 and tectonic changes in the Southern Ocean, impacted marine ecosystems. Sharks in high‐latitude oceans, sensitive to these changes, offer insights into both environmental shifts and biological responses, yet few paleoecological studies exist. The Middle‐to‐Late Eocene units on Seymour Island, Antarctica, provide a rich, diverse fossil record, including sharks. We analyzed the oxygen isotope composition of phosphate from shark tooth bioapatite (δ18Op) and compared our results to co‐occurring bivalves and predictions from an isotope‐enabled global climate model to investigate habitat use and environmental conditions. Bulk δ18Op values (mean 22.0 ± 1.3‰) show no significant changes through the Eocene. Furthermore, the variation in bulk δ18Op values often exceeds that in simulated seasonal and regional values. Pelagic and benthic sharks exhibit similar δ18Op values across units but are offset relative to bivalve and modeled values. Some taxa suggest movements into warmer or more brackish waters (e.g., Striatolamia, Carcharias) or deeper, colder waters (e.g., Pristiophorus). Taxa like Raja and Squalus display no shift, tracking local conditions in Seymour Island. The lack of difference in δ18Op values between pelagic and benthic sharks in the Late Eocene could suggest a poorly stratified water column, inconsistent with a fully opened Drake Passage. Our findings demonstrate that shark tooth bioapatite tracks the preferred habitat conditions for individual taxa rather than recording environmental conditions where they are found. A lack of secular variation in δ18Op values says more about species ecology than the absence of regional or global environmental changes.

Catching Up with the Future: Diplomacy for a New Global Landscape

Summary This contribution discusses the impact of three structural phenomena on the strategic functions of future diplomacy. The first is the shifting global power balance, which has important consequences for the manner in which European ministries of foreign affairs reposition themselves with regard to both big and middle powers. The assertiveness of big, revisionist states implies a return to realpolitik in which hard power takes centre stage. The ascendency of middle powers reinforces the need to build equal partnerships with increasingly influential non-Western countries. The other two game changers are the existential challenges of climate change and the ascent of artificial intelligence. A conflict-sensitive climate approach requires an adjusted diplomatic toolkit. Artificial intelligence has an effect on many different policy dimensions, from international governance to trade promotion. All these developments are relevant to the practice of diplomacy and the skills diplomats need in order to navigate through a changing global environment.

Impact of global environmental changes on the range contraction of Eurasian moose since the Late Pleistocene

Climatic oscillations are considered primary factors influencing the distribution of various life forms on Earth. Large species adapted to cold climates are particularly vulnerable to extinction due to the climate changes. In our study, we investigated whether the temperature increase since the Late Pleistocene and the contraction of environmental niche during the Holocene were the main factors contributing to the decreasing range of moose (Alces alces) in Europe. We also examined whether there were significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by moose in Europe and Asia, that could support the division of moose into western and eastern forms, as suggested by genetic and morphological data. We analysed environmental conditions in locations of 655 subfossil and modern moose occurrences over the past 50,000 years in Eurasia. We found that the most limiting climatic factor for the moose distribution since the Late Pleistocene was July temperature. >90 % of moose records were found in areas where the mean summer temperature was below 19 °C, with July temperatures showing over 3 times narrower interquartile range compared to January temperatures. We identified significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by the European and Asiatic moose. In Europe, the species occurred in regions with milder climates, higher primary productivity, and more frequently within forest biomes compared to Asiatic individuals. The moose range shifted more in the west-east than in the south-north direction during the Holocene climate warming in Europe. We concluded that although the area of suitable moose habitat has increased since 12–8 ka years BP, as demonstrated by environmental niche modeling, the retreat of A. alces in large areas of Europe was likely caused by anthropogenic landscape change (e.g., deforestation) and overhunting by humans during the late Holocene rather than by climate warming during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.

Invasion Dynamics of the Alien Amphibian Xenopus laevis in France: Perspectives for Management

ABSTRACTBackgroundInvasive alien species (IAS) are recognised as pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose significant threats to socio‐ecosystems worldwide. Although much attention is focused on prevalent IAS, the oversight of species that are still contained and approaching critical invasion thresholds raises concern. In this context, scientific support to implement effective and spatially informed management strategies is critically needed.AimsOur study focuses on the African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis, a concerning IAS projected to undergo a substantial expansion in Europe.Materials & MethodsUsing a comprehensive analysis of three distinct datasets, our study aimed to document newly colonised sites and provide an up‐to‐date overview of the current distribution and invasion dynamics of X. laevis in France.ResultsOur results revealed recent colonisation of new sites within the established range of the species and the continuous progression of the invasion front at a rate of 1.2 km per year. This annual progression currently translates to an expansion of approximately 400 km2 per year in the predicted distribution range of the species.DiscussionEmphasising the urgent need for proactive management, we recommend measures encompassing prevention, early detection and rapid responses to invasion, delineated across three strategic zoning levels.ConclusionImmediate and coordinated efforts are imperative to anticipate and mitigate the considerable socio‐environmental impacts associated with this species in the future.

Advancing Knowledge in Forest Water Use Efficiency Under Global Climate Change Through Scientometric Analysis

Forests are critical in regulation of carbon and water cycles and mitigation of climate change. Forest water-use efficiency (WUE) refers to the ratio of biomass produced (or assimilated carbon) to the amount of water used by forests, which indicates how effectively a forest utilizes water to achieve productivity. Climate change and its impact on forest WUE are important research directions that explore the complex relationship between global environmental change and the forest ecosystem dynamics. The global intensification of climate change underscores the need for an inclusive understanding of forest water use and makes it crucial to know how forests balance carbon and water resources, which is essential for effective forest management and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. This study aims to comprehensively and objectively analyze current research trends and future directions related to the response of forest WUE to climate change. Our database included 1755 research papers from the Web of Science Core Collection, spanning from 2000 to 2023. Our analysis included cooperative networks of countries, authors, and institutions, as well as the most frequently cited journals and articles, keyword co-occurrence analysis, and a keyword burst analysis. The results showed that the top cooperative country, author, and institution is PR China, Prof. Dr. Jesús Julio Camarero from the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, respectively. The leading journal in this field is “Global Change Biology”. Critical research hot topics include gas exchange, modeling, altitudinal gradients, tree growth dynamics, net carbon exchange, global change drivers, tropical forests, nitrogen stoichiometry, Northern China plains, and extreme drought conditions. Frontier topics that have emerged in recent years include studies on China’s Loess Plateau, stable isotopes, radial growth, gross primary productivity, and Scots pine. The insights from this analysis are vital for researchers, decision-makers, and forestry professionals aiming to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest WUE and overall ecosystem health and resilience. This study emphasizes the importance of sustained research efforts and global research collaboration in addressing the intricate challenges posed by climate change to forest ecosystems.

Harnessing Ascidians as Model Organisms for Environmental Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) often relies on a restricted set of species as bio-indicators, introducing uncertainty when modeling complex environmental variables. This may lead to oversimplified or erroneous risk assessments. Ascidians, marine filter-feeding sessile chordates, are valuable models for scientific research in various biological fields such as stem cell biology, embryogenesis, regeneration, innate immunity, and developmental biology. Their global distribution, sensitivity to pollutants, high abundance, mass sexual reproduction, and habitation in coastal areas impacted by anthropogenic pollution make them excellent indicators for monitoring marine pollution and global environmental changes, including biological invasions and species diversity diminution cases. Despite their potential as environmental bioindicators, ascidians remain underutilized in ERAs (≤0.13% of ERA studies), particularly in the field of chemical pollution impact assessment, primarily due to a lack of standardization. This underrepresentation poses a challenge for accurate modeling, especially in models relying on a broad range of species (e.g., Species Sensitivity Distributions). Given these constraints, expanding the use of ascidians in ERAs could improve the comprehension and precision of environmental changes and their assessments. This underscores the necessity for future research to establish standardized testing protocols and choose the most suitable ascidian species for inclusion in ERAs.

Assessing Hydrological Response and Resilience of Watersheds as Strategy for Climatic Change Adaptation in Neotropical Region

This study aimed to assess the hydrological response and resilience of watersheds in a neotropical region to identify regions sensitive to climate variations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies in response to global environmental changes. This study applied Budyko’s framework using Fuh’s hydrological model rewritten by Zhou to estimate hydrological response and Budyko’s metrics (deviation and elasticity) to estimate hydrological resilience to climatic changes in 26 watersheds in southeastern Brazil. The proposed modeling was able to capture the differences among the watersheds, with “m” values ranging from 1.79 to 3.63. It was possible to rank the hydrological resilience from low to high across watersheds using Budyko’s metrics, where the highest values of elasticity were found in watersheds with a higher percentage of forest cover. The sensitive analyses showed that watersheds with higher “m” values are more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results also demonstrate that mean elevation and stream density were two key variables that influence the “m” value; these physiographic characteristics may alter the water and energy balance of the watershed affecting the water yield. A relationship between watershed’s hydrological response and resilience was proposed to identify critical areas for the stability of water yield in the watersheds, providing a guide for public policy and suggesting ways to help the management of water resources in watersheds.

Ex vivo and in vitro methods as a platform for studying anthropogenic effects on marine mammals: four challenges and how to meet them

Marine mammals are integral to global biodiversity and marine health through their roles in coastal, benthic, and pelagic ecosystems. Marine mammals face escalating threats from climate change, pollution, and human activities, which perturb their oceanic environment. The diverse biology and extreme adaptations evolved by marine mammals make them important study subjects for understanding anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems. However, ethical and logistical constraints restrict the tractability of experimental research with live marine mammals. Additionally, studies on the effects of changing ocean environments are further complicated by intricate gene-environment interactions across populations and species. These obstacles can be overcome with a comprehensive strategy that involves a systems-level approach integrating genotype to phenotype using rigorously defined experimental conditions in vitro and ex vivo. A thorough analysis of the interactions between the genetics of marine mammals and their exposure to anthropogenic pressures will enable robust predictions about how global environmental changes will affect their health and populations. In this perspective, we discuss four challenges of implementing such non-invasive approaches across scientific fields and international borders: 1) practical and ethical limitations of in vivo experimentation with marine mammals, 2) accessibility to relevant tissue samples and cell cultures; 3) open access to harmonized methods and datasets and 4) ethical and equitable research practices. Successful implementation of the proposed approach has the potential impact to inspire new solutions and strategies for marine conservation.

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ПОРТРЕТ КАЗАХСТАНА: НОВЫЕ ВЕХИ

Recent years have been marked by steady growth of the Kazakh economy, which is supported by the dynamic development of key sectors and the active introduction of new technologies. In 2024, the country continues to successfully adapt to the changing global economic environment, including commodity price volatility and global economic turmoil. The Kazakh economy has demonstrated steady positive dynamics, which is due to the stable growth of key industries and innovative development. Despite global economic challenges and fluctuations in commodity prices, the country continues to demonstrate adaptability and sustainability of economic growth in 2024. International financial institutions and analytical centers agree that the Kazakh economy will maintain moderate growth rates in 2024. This indicates a gradual recovery from global economic turmoil. An important factor contributing to such development is the diversification of the economy, aimed at reducing dependence on commodity exports and stimulating domestic consumption, infrastructure projects and innovation. The Kazakh government is actively working to improve the country's investment attractiveness, support small and medium-sized businesses and develop human capital. These measures are aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth and improving the well-being of the population. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic state of Kazakhstan, including the dynamics of GDP and GRP, as well as development prospects.

Salinity regulates radial growth of Cynometra ramiflora L. in the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem

The mangrove biome is threatened by global environmental changes (including sea level rise, SLR) and anthropogenic disturbances. In this context, understanding the growth dynamics of mangrove species is essential for designing effective management plans for critical mangrove ecosystems such as the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Therefore, this study aims to (1) identify the growth-ring boundaries and tested their periodicity (annual nature) in one of the ecologically important understory mangrove species, Cynometra ramiflora in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, (2) determine the influences of climate and river discharge on radial growth, and (3) examine the influence of habitat variables (e.g., regulators, resources and forest structure) on radial growth. The growth-ring boundaries of C. ramiflora were distinct on the polished wood discs and marked by a layer of flattened fibers mixed with parenchyma. The agreement between individual growth-ring series and chronology statistics enabled us to develop for the first time a 42-year-long chronology spanning from 1979 to 2021. The results indicate that growth rings are annual and could be used for age and growth rate estimations. Monsoonal and annual precipitation enhanced radial growth. Growth was also positively influenced by the amount of river discharge received prior to the onset of growth, particularly during the pre-monsoon. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed that among the habitat variables, salinity had a strong negative influence on radial growth of the studied species in the Sundarbans, while tree density and diameter heterogeneity (coefficient of variation, CoV of diameter at breast height) had positive influences. This study revealed that C. ramiflora growth is strongly dependent on soil salinity and highlighted the potential of this approach for improving the prediction of future tree growth and distribution in the face of projected global changes, in particular, SLR.

Visual MODFLOW, solute transport modeling, and remote sensing techniques for adapting aquifer potentiality under reclamation and climate change impacts in coastal aquifer

Global environmental changes, such as climate change and reclamation alterations, significantly influence hydrological processes, leading to hydrologic nonstationarity and challenges in managing water availability and distribution. This study introduces a conceptual underpinning for the rational development and sustainability of groundwater resources. As one of the areas intended for the development projects within the Egyptian national plan for the reclamation of one and a half million acres; hundreds of pumping wells were constructed in the Moghra area to fulfill the reclamation demand. This study investigates the long-term impacts of exploiting the drilled pumping wells under climate change. The approach is to monitor the groundwater levels and the salinity values in the Moghra aquifer with various operational strategies and present proposed sustainable development scenarios. The impact of global warming and climate change is estimated for a prediction period of 30 years by using satellite data, time series geographical analysis, and statistical modeling. Using MODFLOW and Solute Transport (MT3DMS) modules of Visual MODFLOW USGS 2005 software, a three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference model is created to simulate groundwater flow and salinity distribution in the Moghra aquifer with the input of forecast downscaling (2020–2050) of main climatic parameters (PPT, ET, and Temp). The optimal adaptation-integrated scenario to cope with long-term groundwater withdrawal and climate change impacts is achieved when the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MWRI) recommends that the maximum drawdown shouldn’t be more significant than 1.0 m/ year. In this scenario, 1,500 pumping wells are distributed with an equal space of 500 m, a pumping rate of 1,200 m3/day and input the forecast of the most significant climatic parameters after 30 years. The output results of this scenario revealed a drawdown level of 42 m and a groundwater salinity value of 16,000 mg/l. Climate change has an evident impact on groundwater quantity and quality, particularly in the unconfined coastal aquifer, which is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution of drinking water resources. The relationship between climate change and the hydrologic cycle is crucial for predicting future water availability and addressing water-related issues.

Artificial river flow regulation triggered spatio-temporal changes in marine macrobenthos of the Yellow River Estuary

The Water Sediment Discharge Regulation (WSR) in the Yellow River transports a vast quantity of freshwater and materials to the Bohai Sea within 20 days, significantly altering the ambient environment of the estuary. To elucidate the ecological impacts of this typically artificial flood event, we investigated the benthic habitats and macrobenthic biodiversity within the Affected Core Area (ACA) influenced by this discharge. Our results show that: (1) The discharge created an area with extreme environmental conditions, extending from the southern estuary to Laizhou Bay. This led to a rapid transformation of the habitat, as evidenced by a significant increase in turbidity, ammonium, and silicate levels. Among these factors, nitrogen nutrients and pH were the dominant drivers of environmental filtration, shaping the macrobenthos community structure; (2) The changing habitat triggered spatial shifts in macrobenthos abundance based on the distance from the estuary. Compared to the northern estuary, species composition and C-diversity in the southern area decreased significantly. These changes collectively established a short-term biodiversity front in the estuary region; (3) Community stability declined, as evidenced by a 24.20% reduction in niche width for generalist species and a 90.91% shift in specialist species. Furthermore, the connectivity between species decreased, and the average path length of the network increased, resulting in a more fragmented community structure. Notably, some ecological patches dominated by generalist species (e.g. Alpheus distinguendus) emerged. These findings enhance our understanding of marine ecological responses to artificial flood events within the context of global environmental changes.

Distributions of non‐native and native plants are not determined by the same environmental factors

Abstract Global environmental change will cause shifts in species communities, with non‐native species likely replacing native ones at an unprecedented rate. This will have consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services, in addition to the ecological and economic damage caused by those non‐native species that are invasive. Understanding general patterns driving distributions of native and non‐native species is therefore vital, but no study has compared yet whether environmental variables that correlate with a species' presence differ between the two groups other than at local scale and often with very limited sample size. In this study, we focus on 141 native and non‐native congeneric plant species pairs at the scale of Switzerland. In the framework of correlative species distribution models, we used newly developed methods for efficient automated selection of a parsimonious number of predictor environmental variables to determine which ones, out of a large candidate set in eight classes, have the strongest explanatory power for both species groups. Our results indicated that variables influence the two groups in significantly different ways. Climate was by far the strongest determinant of both native and non‐native species distributions, although it had significantly more explanatory power in native species models. Models for non‐native species were significantly more influenced by anthropogenic factors, land use variables and forest cover. The presence of non‐native species was also associated with habitats with a significantly lower mean naturality value than native species. These findings provide novel empirical evidence for the different environmental factors driving native and non‐native plants' distributions and guidance for non‐native species management. Practical implications: species distribution models are an increasingly frequently advised tool for conservation management and our results provide guidelines on which covariates should be specifically considered to assess the habitat suitability of non‐native versus native species. The distributions of the former group of species are particularly important to research, as, in time, they may turn invasive. In addition, areas close to infrastructure should be scanned regularly for incipient colonizations by non‐native species, especially in as yet uninvaded areas, such as high mountains.

Animal personality in multiple stressor environments: the evolutionary ecology of among-individual differences in responses to stressor suites.

Animal personality differences may have evolved as alternative strategies for negotiating multiple stressor landscapes. Indeed, ecologists are increasingly recognizing that interactions among multiple stressors can transform selective landscapes and behavioural and physiological responses to stress regimes. Yet, evaluating this hypothesis poses challenges, as most studies involving relationships between personality variation and the environment consider single stressors. Here, we review the literature to explore the theory and evidence that multiple stressor environments may mediate personality variation. We consider effects on evolution of personality variation, as influenced by life-history, energetic and behavioural trade-offs, and effects on phenotypic expression of personality traits. We then explore how personality variation may modulate behavioural and physiological responses to multiple stressors, and how differential responses may be affected by personality-dependent movement ecology and cognitive strategies. Among-individual differences in responses to multiple stressors are critical to elucidate, as multi-stress interactions may transform animal behavioural and physiological responses relative to those predicted under single stressor scenarios, and because among-individual variation comprises the basis for evolutionary shifts in stress responsiveness and population resiliency to global environmental change.

Lower grass stomatal conductance under elevated CO2 can decrease transpiration and evapotranspiration rates despite carbon fertilization.

Anthropogenic increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) affects plant physiology. Plant responses to elevated CO2 typically include: (1) enhanced photosynthesis and increased primary productivity due to carbon fertilization and (2) suppression of leaf transpiration due to CO2-driven decrease in stomatal conductance. The combined effect of these responses on the total plant transpiration and on evapotranspiration (ET) has a wide range of implications on local, regional, and global hydrological cycles, and thus needs to be better understood. Here, we investigated the net effect of CO2-driven perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) physiological responses on transpiration and evapotranspiration by integrating physiological and hydrological (water budget) methods, under a controlled environment. Measurements of the net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, leaf mass per area, aboveground biomass, and water balance components were recorded. Measured variables under elevated CO2 were compared with those of ambient CO2. As expected, our results show that elevated CO2 significantly decreases whole-plant transpiration rates (38% lower in the final week) which is a result of lower stomatal conductance (57% lower in the final week) despite a slight increase in aboveground biomass. Additionally, there was an overall decline in evapotranspiration (ET) under elevated CO2, indicating the impact of CO2-mediated suppression of transpiration on the overall water balance. Although studies with larger sample sizes are needed for more robust conclusions, our findings have significant implications for global environmental change. Reductions in ET from ryegrass-dominated grasslands and pastures could increase soil moisture and groundwater recharge, potentially leading to increased surface runoff and flooding.

Enhancing long-term vegetation monitoring in Australia: a new approach for harmonising the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer normalised-difference vegetation (NVDI) with MODIS NDVI

Abstract. Long-term, reliable datasets of satellite-based vegetation condition are essential for understanding terrestrial ecosystem responses to global environmental change, particularly in Australia, which is characterised by diverse ecosystems and strong interannual climate variability. We comprehensively evaluate several existing global Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalised-difference vegetation index (NDVI) products for their suitability for long-term vegetation monitoring in Australia. Comparisons with the MODIS NDVI highlight significant deficiencies, particularly over densely vegetated regions. Moreover, all the assessed products failed to adequately reproduce the interannual variability in the pre-MODIS era as indicated by Landsat NDVI anomalies. To address these limitations, we propose a new approach to calibrating and harmonising NOAA's Climate Data Record of AVHRR NDVI to the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI for Australia using a gradient-boosting decision tree ensemble method. Two versions of the datasets are developed, one incorporating climate data in the predictors (“AusENDVI-clim”: Australian Empirical NDVI-climate) and another that is independent of climate data (“AusENDVI-noclim”). These datasets, spanning 1982–2013 at a spatial resolution of 0.05° and with a monthly time step, exhibit strong correlations (r2=0.89–0.94) and low mean errors compared with MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI (mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.014–0.028, RMSE = 0.021–0.046), accurately reproducing seasonal cycles over densely vegetated regions. Furthermore, they closely replicate the interannual variability in vegetation condition in the pre-MODIS era. A reliable method for gap-filling the AusENDVI record is also developed that leverages climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and woody-cover fraction predictors. The resulting synthetic NDVI dataset shows excellent agreement with the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI and the recalibrated AVHRR NDVI time series (r2=0.82–0.95, MAE = 0.016–0.029, RMSE = 0.039–0.041). Finally, we provide a complete 41-year dataset where the gap-filled AusENDVI-clim from January 1982 to February 2000 is joined with the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI from March 2000 to December 2022. Analysing 40-year per-pixel trends in Australia's annual maximum NDVI revealed increasing values, and shifts in the timing, of the annual peak NDVI across most of the continent, underscoring the dataset's potential to address crucial questions regarding the changing vegetation phenology and its drivers. The AusENDVI dataset can be used for studying Australia's changing vegetation dynamics and downstream impacts on the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, and it provides a reliable foundation for further research into the drivers of vegetation change. AusENDVI is open access and available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10802703 (Burton et al., 2024).

Transferability of ecological forecasting models to novel biotic conditions in a long-term experimental study.

Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long-term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts.

Unleashing the Potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools in Phytogeographical studies

Phytogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of plants, is important for understanding ecosystem dynamics, biodiversity, and ecological processes. Over the past few years, advances in technology, especially artificial intelligence (AI), have revolutionized various scientific fields, including ecology and environmental science. In recent years, AI techniques have been increasingly applied in phytogeography, providing new opportunities to increase our understanding of plant distribution patterns and improve conservation efforts. The study of the role of artificial intelligence in phytogeography focuses on how AI techniques such as machine learning, remote sensing, and spatial analysis are being used to analyse large-scale plant distribution data. By leveraging AI, researchers can gain valuable insights from vast and complex datasets, identify patterns and predict future changes in plant distributions with greater accuracy. Furthermore, AI-driven approaches have the potential to address important challenges in phytogeography, such as species distribution modelling, habitat mapping, and biodiversity conservation. By integrating AI with traditional ecological methods, more effective strategies can be developed to manage and conserve plant species and their habitats. AI-driven phytogeography research, provides an overview of recent progress, discusses potential applications of AI techniques in ecological studies, and the opportunities and challenges associated with the use of AI in understanding and conserving plant biodiversity. Ultimately, the integration of AI with phytogeography has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of plant distributions and inform more sustainable conservation practices in the face of global environmental change.